THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE Public Disclosure Authorized Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) Public Disclosure Authorized Investment Project SRATEGIC REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL Public Disclosure Authorized AND SOCIAL ASSESSMENT (SRESA) This SRESA report was prepared for the Government of Tanzania by Environmental Resources Management Limited (ERM) under a contract as part of SAGCOT preparatory activities Public Disclosure Authorized DECEMBER 2013 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND 1 1.2 PROGRAMMEOVERVIEW 1 1.3 STUDY OBJECTIVE 2 1.4 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT 3 1.5 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 3 1.5.1 Overview 3 1.5.2 Screening 4 1.5.3 Scoping 4 1.5.4 Baseline Description 4 1.5.5 Scenario Development 4 1.5.6 Impact Assessment 5 1.5.7 Development of Mitigation Measures 5 1.5.8 Consultation 6 1.5.9 Constraints and Limitations 6 1.6 REPORT LAYOUT 6 2 THE SOUTHERN AGRICULTURAL GROWTH CORRIDOR OF TANZANIA 8 2.1 THE SAGCOT PROGRAMME 8 2.1.1 The SAGCOT Concept 8 2.1.2 SAGCOT Organisation 11 2.2 PROPOSED WORLD BANK SUPPORTED SAGCOT INVESTMENT PROJECT 14 2.2.1 General 14 2.2.2 Catalytic Fund 15 2.2.3 Support Institutions 16 3 THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN TANZANIA 20 3.1 INTRODUCTION 20 3.2 AGRICULTURE AND THE TANZANIAN ECONOMY 20 3.2.1 Overview 20 3.2.2 Land Use 25 3.3 PRIORITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR 25 3.3.1 Current Initiatives for Agricultural Development 25 3.3.2 Rationale for SAGCOT Programme 29 3.3.3 District Level Agricultural Planning 30 3.4 FINANCING POLICIES AND INCENTIVE STRUCTURE IN AGRICULTURE 31 3.4.1 Government Agricultural Financing 31 3.4.2 Tanzania Investment Bank (TIB) 33 3.4.3 Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank 33 3.4.4 Agricultural Lending by Commercial Banks 34 3.4.5 Export Processing Zones Authority (EPZA) 34 3.4.6 Tax Regime for Agriculture in Tanzania 34 4 POLICY, LEGAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE FRAMEWORK 36 4.1 INTRODUCTION 36 4.2 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK 36 4.3 LAND: POLICY AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK 39 4.3.1 Overview 39 4.3.2 National Land Policy (1997) 40 4.3.3 Land Acts (1999) 41 4.3.4 Land Acquisition and Compensation 42 4.4 SECTORAL POLICIES AND LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORKS 43 4.4.1 Agriculture 43 4.4.2 Water 47 4.4.3 Forestry 51 4.4.4 Wildlife, Wetlands and Conservation 53 4.4.5 Gender 61 4.4.6 Education 63 4.4.7 Health 63 4.4.8 Human Rights 65 4.5 IMPLEMENTATION OF POLICIES AND REGULATIONS IN PRACTICE 65 4.6 GOOD GOVERNANCE 71 4.7 THE SAGCOT INSTITUTIONS 73 4.7.1 SAGCOT Centre 73 4.7.2 Tanzania Investment Centre 74 4.7.3 MLHHSD 75 4.7.4 RUBADA 75 4.8 INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 76 4.8.1 International Conventions and Agreements 76 4.8.2 World Bank Safeguards 78 5 THE SAGCOT CORRIDOR AND CLUSTERS 82 5.1 CLIMATE 82 5.1.1 Overview 82 5.1.2 Climate Change Predictions 85 5.1.3 Climate Change Adaptation 86 5.2 WATER RESOURCES 87 5.2.1 Introduction 87 5.2.2 Wami, Ruvu and Coast Basin 90 5.2.3 Rufiji Basin 91 5.2.4 Lower Rufiji Sub-Basin 97 5.2.5 Kilombero Valley 98 5.2.6 Great Ruaha Sub-basin 103 5.2.7 Lake Nyasa Basin 107 5.2.8 Lake Rukwa and Lake Tanganyika Basins 107 5.3 ECOSYSTEMS 108 5.3.1 The Rufiji Floodplain 108 5.3.2 The Eastern Arc Mountains 110 5.3.3 The Kilombero Valley 111 5.3.4 Greater Ruaha System 120 5.3.5 Katavi-Rukwa-Lukwati Landscape 121 5.3.6 The Southern Highlands 121 5.3.7 Protected Areas 122 5.3.8 Critical Natural Habitats 128 5.3.9 Environmental and Ecological Projects 129 5.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 130 5.4.1 Population 130 5.4.2 Social Diversity 133 5.4.3 Livelihoods 139 5.4.4 Education 143 5.4.5 Health 143 5.4.6 Finance and Savings 146 5.4.7 Social Capital, Community Dynamics, Power and Decision-making 147 5.4.8 Migration 150 5.4.9 Land Issues 151 6 STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS 152 6.1 INTRODUCTION 152 6.2 KEY STAKEHOLDERS 152 6.3 KEY ISSUES OF CONCERN 153 7 KILOMBERO VALLEY: AGRICULTURAL CHANGE SCENARIOS 160 7.1 INTRODUCTION 160 7.2 CONTEXT 161 7.3 SCENARIO ONE: CURRENT TRENDS WITHOUT SAGCOT PROGRAMMES 164 7.3.1 Scenario 1A: The ‘No Programme Case 164 7.3.2 Scenario 1B: ‘Normal’ Population Growth with In-migration 182 7.4 SCENARIO 2: THE SAGCOT INVESTMENT SCENARIO 184 7.4.1 Overview of SAGCOT Investment Model 184 7.4.2 Land Use 185 7.4.3 Irrigation Water Requirements and Availability 186 7.4.4 Fuelwood 189 7.5 SCENARIO 3: GREEN SCENARIO 190 8 KILOMBERO VALLEY: SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS AND SOLUTIONS 192 8.1 INTRODUCTION 192 8.2 ISSUES RELATED TO LAND 192 8.2.1 Land for Investment 192 8.2.2 Land for Smallholders and Pastoralists 196 8.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES 197 8.3.1 Inclusion of Smallholders in Value Chains 197 8.3.2 Gender 201 8.3.3 Health and Safety 202 8.4 ISSUES RELATED TO WATER 206 8.4.1 Water Availability, Seasonality and Environmental Flows 206 8.4.2 Water Quality 208 8.5 ISSUES RELATED TO BIODIVERSITY 210 8.5.1 Loss of Habitats and Connectivity 210 8.5.2 Impacts on Wildlife 212 8.5.3 Impacts on Fish 215 8.6 ISSUES RELATED TO GOVERNANCE 216 8.6.1 Social Capital and Cohesion 216 8.7 CONCLUSIONS 218 9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 224 9.1 INTRODUCTION 224 9.2 RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 224 9.2.1 Key Risks 224 9.2.2 Key Opportunities 225 9.3 RECOMMENDATIONS 225 9.3.1 World Bank-Supported SAGCOT Investment Project 226 9.3.2 Kilombero Valley 228 9.3.3 SAGCOT as a Whole 231 GENERAL REFERENCES 239 OTHER REFERENCES 244 Annex A Terms of Reference Annex B Record of Consultation Annex C Backup Data for the Assessment (various topics) Annex D Scenario Model Explanation Annex E Study Team Table 3.1 Farming Systems in the Rufiji Basin 21 Table 3.2 Land Cover in the Southern Corridor 25 Table 3.3 Agricultural Investment Supporting Policies 27 Table 4.1 Wildlife Division Revenue Collection Trends 55 Table 4.2 Gender Policies, Strategies and Initiatives 62 Table 4.3 Education Policies and Initiatives 63 Table 4.4 Health Policies and Initiatives 64 Table 4.5 Tanzania's Ranking in the World Bank's "Doing Business" List 65 Table 4.6 World Bank Safeguard Policies Triggered by Project 79 Table 5.1 Average Daily Flow at Six Gauging Stations in the Wami Sub-Basin 90 Table 5.2 Summary of WQEL Water Quality Data for Rufiji Basin 96 Table 5.3 Irrigation Potential in the Lower Rufiji Sub-Basin 98 Table 5.4 Current and Planned Irrigation Development in the Kilombero Sub-Basin 101 Table 5.5 Water Quality in Kilombero Sub-basin 103 Table 5.6 Water Quality in Great Ruaha Sub-basin 105 Table 5.7 Land Use and Cover Types in the Kilombero Valley Ramsar Site 112 Table 5.8 Plant Communities in the Kilombero Valley 113 Table 5.9 Wildlife in Kilombero Valley: Composite Data 1976-2009 115 Table 5.10 National Parks and Game Reserves in SAGCOT Area 122 Table 5.11 Forest Reserves in the SAGCOT area 123 Table 5.12 Management Effectiveness Scores for Forests in the Eastern Arc 126 Table 5.13 Age Dependency Ratios in Kilombero District 133 Table 5.14 Overview of Main Ethnic Groups in the SAGCOT Clusters 134 Table 5.15 Vulnerable Groups 138 Table 5.16 Final examination STD VII passing rates in Kilombero District 2006-2010 144 Table 5.17 Active SACCOS in Kilombero District, 2009 147 Table 6.1 Key Project Stakeholders and Stakeholder Categories 152 Table 6.2 Key Issues of Concern raised by Informants 154 Table 6.3 SAGCOT: Key Environmental and Social Issues and Risks 155 Table 7.1 Land Use in Kilombero Valley 161 Table 7.2 Land Use in Kilombero Game Controlled Area, 2009 163 Table 7.3 Scenario 1A Assumptions 164 Table 7.4 Population Data for Kilombero and Ulanga Districts 165 Table 7.5 Scenario 1: Proportion of Households by Livelihood in Different Locations 166 Table 7.6 Scenario 1A: Population Projections (Number of Households) 166 Table 7.7 Conversion Table for Livestock Units 167 Table 7.8 Scenario 1A: Projected Livestock Units and Grazing Land Requirements 167 Table 7.9 Kilombero District Land Use 2007/7 to 2008/9 169 Table 7.10 Scenario 1A: Kilombero District - Cultivated Area by Main Crops 172 Table 7.11 Scenario 1A: Kilombero District - Crop Production (t) 175 Table 7.12 Scenario 1A: Ulanga District - Cultivated Area by Main Crops 176 Table 7.13 Scenario 1A: Ulanga District - Crop Production (t) 177 Table 7.14 Kilombero District: Existing Irrigated Areas (excluding commercial sugarcane) 178 Table 7.15 Scenario 1A: Dry Season Irrigation Water Requirements 179 Table 7.16 Scenario 1A: Total Dry Season Water Requirements, All Sources of Demand 179 Table 7.17 Actual and Optimal Fertilizer Use 180 Table 7.18 Fuelwood Requirements with Normal and Improved Stoves (both Districts) 181 Table 7.19 Udzungwa National Park: Forest Cover Changes 1979-2002 182 Table 7.20 Scenario 1B: Population Projections (Number of Households) 183 Table 7.21 Scenario 2 Assumptions 184 Table 7.22 Scenario 2: Incremental Crop Production in 2015 under SAGCOT Investment Model 186 Table 7.23 Scenario 2: Predicted Population and Household Increase, 2010-2015 186 Table 7.24 Scenario 2: SAGCOT Model Investments and Estimated Water Requirements to 2030 187 Table 7.25 Kilombero River Tributaries: Estimated Mean Monthly Flows (m3/s) 189 Table 7.26 Dry Season Water Availability at Proposed Large Irrigation Sites 189 Table 7.27 Projections of Energy use between 2010 and 2013 190 Table 9.1 Key Recommendations 234 Figure 1.1 Programme Location: SAGCOT and the Priority Clusters 2 Figure 2.1 Key SAGCOT Action Areas 9 Figure 2.2 Diagram of an Agricultural Cluster 10 Figure 2.3 Overview of SAGCOT Institutions 12 Figure 3.1 Pastoralist Migrations 24 Figure 3.2 TAFSIP in the National Planning Hierarchy 28 Figure 3.3 The SAGCOT Centre and Social and Environmental Responsibility