*This is a Working Paper currently under academic peer review. Citation: Last, C. 2014. Human Metasystem Transition Theory (HMST). Working Paper, 1-15. cadelllast.com.

Human Metasystem Transition Theory (HMST) By Cadell Last ABSTRACT Metasystem transitions are events representing the evolutionary of a higher level of organization and complexity. Such events have occurred several times throughout the history of life (e.g., emergence of life, multicellular life, sexual reproduction). The emergence of new levels of organization and complexity has also occurred within the human system three times (e.g., hunting, agriculture, industry). There are several common system-level patterns that are shared by human metasystem transitions (HMST), which I believe are fundamental to understanding the nature and of our system, as well as our future development. First, HMST always occur via the exploitation of a new energy source and the evolution of a new communication medium. Second, HMST always lead to the ability to form stable agent transportation networks over larger geographical areas and with more agents. In this framework, the nature of energy, communication, and transportation changes within HMST represent three theoretical pillars. Finally, the timing between HMST decrease and the diffusion time of transitions increase, both in an exponential fashion. In this paper I propose that the three HMST pillars, along with exponential timing and diffusion patterns form the basis for a theory of human metasystem transitions. Furthermore, this theory may have practical application in understanding the future of the human system and the nature of the next HMST.

1 1. Metasystem transitions Metasystem transitions (MST) are major evolutionary events that allow for the emergence of complexity in living systems (Turchin 1977). The 1977 works The Phenomenon of Science by cyberneticist was the first introduction to metasystem transition theory (MSTT). Various scientists have since developed MSTT and have identified system-level pattern continuity that can be observed within everything from the first replicating molecules to human civilization (Smith and Szathmáry 1995). Within the Smith and Szathmáry theoretical framework there have been eight major metasystem transitions in the history of life (Smith and Szathmáry 1995):

• Replicating molecules to “populations” of molecules in compartments • Independent replicators to chromosomes • RNA (genes and enzymes) to DNA (genes); proteins (enzymes) • Prokaryotes to eukaryotes • Asexual clones to sexual populations • Protists to multicellular organisms • Solitary individuals to colonies • Primate societies to human societies (with language) The classification of a “major” transition is represented at a point where entities that could replicate independently are now replicating via mechanisms dependent on the whole. Further analysis revealed that there were five important patterns within the eight identified major MST (Smith and Szathmáry 2000). These include:

• Smaller entities come together to form larger entity • Smaller entities become differentiated within larger entity • Smaller entities unable to reproduce in absence of larger entity • Smaller entities can disrupt development of larger entity • New information transmission mechanisms arise From this analysis it is evident that evolution is in the business of producing higher levels of complexity within nested system-level hierarchies. Cyberneticists and Cliff Joslyn have referred to these phenomena as a “quantum of evolution” or “discrete jumps” that function to allow a system to evolve a higher level of complexity (Heylighen and Joslyn 1995). The trend towards greater levels of complexity in evolution is also coupled with a trend towards increasingly frequent metasystem transitions (Heylighen 2000). Currently, the study of metasystem transitions has progressed with little input from researchers specializing in the “human sciences”, and specifically from scientists with backgrounds in evolutionary anthropology. As a result, the nature and patterns of specifically human MST has been overlooked. Many of the cybernetic and evolutionary themes explored by Turchin, Smith, Szathmáry, Heylighen, and Joslyn can be incorporated and merged within a theory of human metasystem transitions (HMST). This new analysis will give us a deeper framework for understanding the specific nature of

2 human transitions, as well as transitions merged with both biochemical and technocultural pathways. In my analysis I will be defining a metasystem transition as a process whereby a new control level emerges integrating previous subsystems at the level below (Heylighen and Joslyn 1995). This can also be thought of as the evolutionary emergence of a higher level of organization and complexity (Turchin 1977, Smith and Szathmáry 1995).

2. Human metasystem transition theory From a cybernetic theoretical perspective there have been three metasystem transitions (MST) throughout the evolution of our genus Homo. Within each of these MST a new level of organization has emerged, which has been enabled by the exploitation of a new energy source. Anthropologists, biologists, and ecologists have previously recognized the utility of this system-level energy-exploitation model of human evolution/development (e.g., Ellis 2011, Haberl 2006, Hanson 2008). The first transition was caused by the regular exploitation of meat (Wrangham 2009) via coordinated hunting and complex technoculture (Ambrose 2001). This allowed our ancestors to organize parties and groups into bands and tribes. We see evidence of a gradual but significant increase in animal meat consumption in the emergence of the genus Homo 2 million years ago (Braun et al. 2010, Schoeninger 2012, Steele 2010). This exploitation of animal meat accelerated with successive Homo species (e.g., Homo erectus, Homo heidelbergensis, Homo neanderthalensis) (Antón 2003, Pontzer et al. 2011, Ungar 2012) between the emergence of the genus and the emergence of modern humans approximately 200,000 years ago (McDougall et al. 2005). The second transition was caused by the domestication of plants and via selective breeding (Diamond 1997, Morris and Farrar 2010). This allowed our ancestors to organize chiefdoms, kingdoms, city-states, empires, nation-states, etc. We see evidence for independent agricultural development in seven different locations between 9,000 B.C.E. and 2,000 B.C.E. (Diamond and Bellwood 2003). These “agricultural revolutions” or “Neolithic revolutions” shared the same system-level patterns and included the same general ordering of causal events related to the cultivation of plants, domestication of animals, and rise of sedentism (Morris and Farrar 2010). The degree to which this process matured or intensified was dependent on the plant-animal complexes available to human populations on different continents (Bellwood and Oxenham 2008, Diamond 1997), and the diffusion of agricultural cores over centuries and millennia (Putterman 2008). However, it is clear that between the emergence of agricultural economies 11,000 years ago and the present, all humans have gradually transitioned away from a system fundamentally built on hunting and gathering. The third transition was caused by the exploitation of fossil fuels (e.g., coal, petroleum, natural gas) (Allen 2009, Landes 2003). This allowed our ancestors to organize larger nation-states, multi-continental empires, multi-continental neo-colonial entities; followed more recently by the emergence of international and “global” organizations. The

3 diffusion of industrial processes was so fast that it only required one diffusion center (e.g., England) (Allen 2009). Diffusion of the new energy economy was largely dependent on sovereignty, with European colonial and neo-colonial entities exploiting fossil fuels well before any other sociopolitical entity was able to a develop a post- agricultural economy (Robertson 2003). Global industrialization has been developing and accelerating in “non-Western” countries (e.g., Latin American, Asian, and African countries) from 1945 to the present (i.e., the post-colonial era) (Weiss 2003). Again, this diffusion has been largely dependent on sovereignty (i.e., sociopolitical groups able to control the resources and development of their own territory). Biochemical metasystem transitions always require a substantial increase in useable energy within the system to achieve a higher level of organization and control (Chaisson 2011). This is also true for the human system. However, MST also requires a more efficient information transfer mechanism to stabilize the agents within the next system (Smith and Szathmáry 2000). As a result, the emergence and establishment of a new communication medium always co-evolves symbiotically with the exploitation of a new energy source. Within the human metasystem transition (HMST) theoretical framework:

• Spoken language stabilized the hunting transition (Dunbar 2003) • Writing stabilized the agricultural transition (Cooper 2004) • Printing press stabilized the industrial transition (Harnad 1991) Each communication medium increased the information transfer rate between agents within the human system and allowed for the stabilization of higher system-level order. Several evolutionary anthropological models have been developed demonstrating that increased linguistic ability was caused by the functional need to increase the information transfer between increasingly large agent networks in hunting and gathering hominids (Aiello and Dunbar 1993, Dunbar 2003, 2009). Over hundreds of thousands of years linguistic ability improved in three to four “waves” or “movements” that can be correlated with increased brain size and group size (Gamble et al. 2011). The first movements towards spoken language were thus additionally facilitated with grooming in order to exponentially expand the number of agents in which social information could be shared (Logan 2007). We should only suspect advanced symbolic narrative to develop in later movements, giving rise to uniquely human capabilities related to story telling, religion, and science (Dunbar 2009). Recording symbols to communicate information is a practice that predates agriculture, and may be as old as modern humans (Conkey 1997). However, “full writing” is a communication medium that only developed independently in four different areas (e.g., Mesopotamia, Egypt, China, and Mesoamerica) (Trigger 2004). These were also the four regions that experienced the most intensified agricultural development (Mazoyer and Roudart 2006). With intensified agriculture came increased population size and increased need for administration and wealth redistribution to collectively maintain the first city-states (Morris and Farrar 2010). Writing seems to have facilitated this increased sociopolitical complexity as the first written records are largely composed of lists related to administration and taxes (Cooper 2004). Our understanding of this development is most advanced in the Mesopotamian core because their writing material was clay, which preserves better than the materials used in Egypt (papyrus), China (silk, wood strips), or

4 Mesoamerica (bark, palm leaves) (Cooper 2004). Either way, written records focused on expressing narrative always emerges after written records focused on practical administration and continued maintenance of agricultural surpluses (Stewart 2010). However, in the four main agricultural cores writing develops from a pictographic, hieroglyphic, or ideographic system into one with more simplified phonetic structure, in order to facilitate recorded narrative, bringing spoken language and written language closer together (Stewart 2010). Just as primitive forms of writing predate agriculture before gradually maturing with agricultural intensification, the printing press predates industry before maturing with the industrial revolution. The first experiments with paper (105 C.E.), printing (713 C.E.), and moveable type (1041 C.E.) undoubtedly started in East Asia over the course of several centuries (Gunaratne 2001). These developments predate the famed Gutenberg printing press, which was developed in mid-15th century Germany (Harnard 1991). However, the system-level pattern of significance for this development is that similar moveable type technologies were developed in the two most advanced agricultural cores (Diamond 1997, Morris and Farrar 2010). This phenomenon provides us with a strong suggestion that, like previous communication mediums (e.g., language, writing), the printing press is a medium that evolved in response to increased population size and sociopolitical complexity. Despite the development of the printing press in two cores, the effects, diffusion, and evolution of the printing press in Europe were far more profound than those in East Asia. Between 1500-1700 European culture and society were forever changed by the proliferation of “ancient” knowledge, as well as the ability to diffuse philosophical and scientific literature to ever-broader audiences (Dittmar 2011, Eisenstein 1980). This revolution marks the first time in human history in which we possessed a “one-to-many” communication medium (Dewar 2000, Harnad 1991). This medium fully matured with “industrial-scale” printing press technology in the 19th century, allowing for the organization and maintenance of intercontinental empire and eventually the beginnings of international governance (Eisenstein 1980). Once a metasystem transition has started to occur and “mature” (i.e., once all agents have access to more energy and once a more efficient information transfer mechanism has been established), larger agent transportation networks can be established and permanently maintained. These networks are measured by the size of the governance network and the absolute number of agents within the network. Within this theoretical framework the hunting MST led to the establishment of:

• Groups double and triple the absolute size of australopithecine and extant great ape groups (~150-250) (Dunbar 2003, Gamble et al. 2011) • Groups with the capability to migrate, colonize, and stabilize within almost any niche on the planet (Richerson and Boyd 2008) The agricultural MST led to the establishment of:

• Groups with as many as 10-100 million agents (e.g., Roman Empire; Yuan Dynasty) (Taagepera 1979, 1997) • Groups with the capability to control agents on continental scales (e.g., Inca Empire, Chinese Empire(s)) (Stanish 2002, White 2007)

5 The industrial MST led to the establishment of:

• Groups with as many as 1-2 billion agents (e.g., modern China and India) (Winters and Yusuf 2007) • Groups with the capability to control agents on international scales (e.g., British Empire, American neo-colonial empire) (Mann 2012) Important transportation mechanisms evolve to facilitate ever-larger agent networks that stabilize on ever-larger geographic scales. During the first metasystem transition the genus Homo acquired long distance endurance running capabilities (Bramble and Liberman, 2004). During the second metasystem transition humans develop more efficient intracontinental travel with the domestication and exploitation of horses and also (very) primitive intercontinental travel mechanisms with sailing ships (Innis 2007). During the third metasystem transition we developed steam engines (19th century) and automobiles (20th century) to facilitate intracontinental travel and steam ships (19th century) and airplanes (20th century) to facilitate a more advanced intercontinental travel (Crafts 2004, Mowery and Rosenberg 1999). Within the HMST framework energy, communication, and transportation represent important theoretical “pillars”. Also, an important aspect of HMST theory is related to the timing and diffusion of these transitions. The timing between transitions decrease in an exponential fashion. Approximate dates from the beginning to the end of each transition are as follows:

• Hunting: 2 million years ago (mya) – 200 thousand years ago (kya) • Agriculture: 10 kya – 2000 C.E. • Industry: 1750 C.E. – present For the purpose of this analysis these dates are based on empirical evidence of resource exploitation and diffusion, as well as MST theory as utilized by economist Robin Hanson in his analysis of human economic growth modes (e.g., Hanson 1998, 2008). Note that all modes are based around the acquisition of a new form of energy for the system. This is a distinctly cybernetic or systems-approach to our species natural socioeconomic metabolism. The diffusion between the start and end of a metasystem transition also increases in speed exponentially. From the above estimated dates we can see that the transition to hunting and language required hundreds of thousands of years and multiple human species to reach full maturation. There were also, in all likelihood, countless diffusion centers for this transition. The transition to agriculture and writing occurred over a much shorter time scale, but still required thousands of years to start and fully mature. This transition occurred so quickly that it did not require the emergence of any new human species, but it did happen slowly enough to generate multiple diffusion centers (e.g., Central Eurasia, East Asia, Mesoamerica). Finally, the transition to industry and printing press has required centuries (and should be complete well before the end of the 21st century). This transition occurred so quickly that it only required one diffusion center (e.g., England),

6 although a few other areas displayed some “pre-industrial” economic developments (e.g., East Asia and South Asia).

3. Future Human Metasystem Transitions Finally, analysis of human metasystem transition theory suggests at a possible framework for the next human metasystem transition. I propose that this metasystem transition tentatively be referred to as the “solar brain” transition. This new metasystem would primarily be based on the full exploitation of solar energy (hence the “solar” portion of the name). Many energy experts have recognized that there is a strong pressure for a new carbon-neutral energy economy that can provide more energy to a greater number of people (e.g., Lewis and Nocera 2006, Şen 2004). Many energy experts have also realized that solar provides us with the best opportunity to achieve this next energy system (e.g., Bradford 2006, Goetzberger et al. 2002, Lewis and Nocera 2006, Liang et al. 2010). (Of course, other energy sources could compliment solar, like wind and geothermal) (Carrasco et al. 2006, Haralambopoulos and Polatidis 2003). The communication medium stabilizing the establishment of a higher level of systems- order is already emergent and evolving: the Internet. The Internet at fully maturity is hypothesized to be a medium acting as a “nervous system” for humanity, facilitating all intelligent agent interaction all the time (Goertzel 2002, Heylighen 2002). Such a communication medium would likely be referred to as a “global smart grid” or a “” (hence the “brain” portion of the name) (Heylighen 2011). Such a grid would emerge from increasing Internet use, increasing access to the Internet, and the development of the “Internet of Things” (IoT) (Atzori et al. 2010, Kopetz 2011, Kortuem et al. 2010). If HMST theory is correct we should suspect the stabilization of a global transportation agent network after the aforementioned energy and communication transitions. This agent network would likely include all intelligent agents in one sociopolitical unit, which would perhaps be composed of 8-12 billion agents depending on the decade of the emergence of the new system. This system description is based on previous metasystem transition trends (Hanson 1998, 2008), current trends towards global governance and international cooperation during the later stages of the industrial transition (Karns and Mingst 2004, Krahmann 2003), as well as current projections on global population in the mid-21st century (Bongaarts 2009, Cohen 2003). The Internet at full maturity would be more than capable of facilitating information transfer between all agents in such a system (Heylighen 2008), but we should also suspect the emergence of transportation mechanisms to facilitate easier and cheaper physical movement both intra- and inter- continentally, as has occurred during the hunting, agriculture, and industry transitions. Such mechanisms have already been theoretically described (e.g., Musk 2013). Finally, if the timing and diffusion patterns hold from previous metasystem transitions, we should suspect the emergence of this new global system sometime during mid century (e.g., 2040-2060). Again, this estimate is based on the fact that previous human metasystem transitions follow exponential timing and diffusion patterns, but also based

7 on current estimates of solar energy reaching grid parity with fossil fuels (Lewis 2009, Morton 2006, Ramchandra and Stadler 2009) and the current pace of Internet growth and diffusion (Sahel and Simmons 2011). Several researchers from multiple fields, and from multiple different perspectives and conceptualizations, have attempted to describe a transition similar to the transition prediction within this theoretical model. These conceptions have included:

• Technological singularity (Ulam 1958, Vinge 1993, Kurzweil 2005) • Global brain (Russell 1985, Bloom 2000) • The great transition (Raskin 2010) • The omega point (Teilhard 1955) • World brain (Wells 1938) • Noosphere (Teilhard 1969) The closer we get temporally to this potential transition, the less metaphorical our analyses of it should become (e.g., Heylighen 2011), and the more it will become possible to model it theoretically and mathematically (e.g., Heylighen et al. 2012). This model may allow for further predictions and a better-developed framework for fundamentally understanding how the human system “behaves” over deeper scales of time. As of now, I think we can start to say a few general and system-level patterns that should emerge during the 21st century. Evolutionary cybernetics teaches us that energy is a fundamental determinant of living system structure in nature. I have tried to demonstrate that this is true of systems like our own, even though it is built on both biochemical and technocultural pathways. Thus, our system fundamentally behaves in similar ways to other living systems, in terms of how we achieve higher levels of organization and complexity. The main differences may be related to the temporal speed at which our system changes and the currently unknown trajectory of its evolution. However, we may start to be able to solve some of these mysteries by acknowledging that there is an underlying system-level pattern and continuity with biochemical system- processes. Therefore we should invite and continue to engage in discussions related to models incorporating the Kardashev scale and Barrow scale (e.g., Vidal 2013). Also, we should consider the likelihood of potential space expansion or transcension scenarios for the future direction of intelligent life within an evolutionary cybernetic systems- framework (e.g., Chassion 2005, Kurzweil 2005, Smart 2012).

4. Conclusion I have tried to describe a theoretical model for the evolution of the human system based on the exploitation of energy and the establishment of new communication mediums. Both phenomena appear to fundamentally govern human system structure and also appear to build on the previous established processes, allowing the stabilization of new organization and complexity as measured by the size of governance networks and the absolute number of agents within the network. From an evolutionary cybernetic perspective this theory has the potential to better integrate unique human species

8 processes within a systems-level evolutionary model. Previous biochemical metasystem transitions have followed very predictable patterns related to organization and complexity, and it appears as though the human system is not distinct in this respect even though a new and unique pathway has emerged and continues to dominate evolutionary change within our lineage (i.e., technocultural). If such simple fundamental mechanisms govern the establishment of higher-level organization within the human system, this may make our systems behaviour far easier to predict and model. Within this theoretical framework it also seems possible to predict and describe a hypothetical 21st century system transition. We can extrapolate from contemporary system-level processes related to energy, communication, and transportation to better understand our systems fundamental future development.

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