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Water and Security in Southern Africa

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Water and Security in Southern Africa Water and Security in Southern Africa Leif Ohisson, University of Gothenburg ~E Ci~T~E V ANJ~ 824—AFS—13 166 Publications on Water Resources: No 1 Department for Natural Resources and the Environment Foreword Water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource, especially in dry climate regions such as Southern Africa. A finite amount of fresh water shall satisfy the needs of the growing population, the production of food, industrial and energy production, cities and conservation of nature. An increased competition between different users of water, both within countries and between countries, can be a source of conflicts but also instrumental in creating opportunities for strengthening cooperation. As part of Sweden’s commitment to Agenda 21, Sida will give higher priority to water resources in development cooperation.We are at present preparing a programme of support to sustainable use of water resources in the regional context of Southern Africa. This report has been prepared to give background information on potential conflicts related to water resources in that region. The views presented in the report are those of the author and are not necessarily shared by Sida. We hope that the report will contribute to the discussion and improved understanding of water resources as an essential area for cooperation to prevent potential conflicts. Stockholm in November, 1995 Johan Holmberg ~\ Director, Department fo~Natural Resources and the Environment, Sida ~. J3}~ C: ISBN 91-586-7238-9 Water and Security in Southern Africa: Summary of the Study The need for integrated, basinwide, water resource management is considered a prime security objective for the prospects of SADC regional cooperation. Any measure that will strengthen such efforts therefore ought to be reviewed for de- velopment cooperation support. In the short term, outdated or non-existent data merit support for basic hydrological data collection, necessary for creating or updating national water master plans, as part of assessing all river basin resources. Any programme di- rected at increasing awareness of water issues among decision-makers in the re- gion deserves support. The possibility of utilizing existing competence from the new South Africa for regional capacity-building ought to be fully explored. Water transfer schemes to ameliorate acute water shortage for cities and water-starved regions already are at the top of the regional agenda, and will con- tinue to be so for the medium term, necessitating regional negotiations and un- derlining the need for basinwide management. The most important such regio- nal water resource management programme, the ZACPLAN, has been scrutini- zed extensively by expertise from both within the region and by external revie- wers. Judging by these reviews, the principal agency handling the programme, SADC ELMS, would benefit from institutional support. Attention on security aspects of water issues so far has been concentrated on the risk of water transfer schemes creating conflicts — political or ultimately violent — between states in the region. The mere perception of such risks is a se- curity threat in its own right, undermming confidence-creating measures bet- ween countries. On the merits of available evidence, however, the regional coo- perative framework seems strong enough to handle present aspects of this threat, particularly since officials on all levels from the new South Africa seem very concerned about eliminating any ground for suspicion of regional great- power ambitions. Furthermore, concentrating on security in this traditional inter-state sense may obscure the potentially much larger risks in the long run of environmental- ly induced scarcities creating misery and conflicts within countries, leading to consequences which are very difficult to foresee. Conflicts between states may turn out to be among these consequences. It is worth underlining, however, that the most likely scenario for such future conflicts to arise will be through a failu- re to meet the internal challenges facing governments and states already today. These risks can be mitigated by cooperation, understanding, trust, identify- ing the expectations and concerns and by determining the potential of the re- source base, so that negotiation can be based on facts. Developmentcooperation efforts aimed at preparing countries in the region for a strategy of learning to live with aridity — i.e. using the available water, where it is available, to its greatest advantage — therefore seems imperative, as part of a larger strategy of preparing for the inevitable long-time and large-scale forces of societal change — with their inherent capacity of creating break-down tendencies for the state — being at work for the duration of the foreseeable future in the SADC countries. Contents: Water and Security in Southern Africa 1 Background 1 Changing Perceptions of Security 2 Environmental Scarcity ofLand and Water 6 The Challenge ofShared Water Resources 9 The internationalIWRM Policy Framework 11 The SADC Regional WRM Framework 11 Prospects for Regional IWRM Cooperation 16 ~onciusion 17 Appendicies: 1. Population, Environmentand Security: An Overview of the SADC Countries 19 II. SADC Food Security: An Overview 1995 25 III. SADC Food Security: Country Profiles 1995 29 IV. Population Growth and Land Scarcity 33 V. Water and the Environment: An overview of the SADC countries 35 W. Suiface Water Management in Arid Regions 47 VII. Population Growth and Water Scarcity 48 VIII. Shared Rivers 51 IX. Major Water Transfer Schemes 53 X. The International IWRM Policy Framework 56 Xi. The Helsinki Rules 58 Xii. Existing Agreements 59 XIII. SADCRWRM Programmes 61 XIV Abbreviations 63 XV. References 64 (Map drawn fo, this study, b~edon Chabwela. I{, Wa~iands’A Consa,vat,on Pmgraln7e tufSouthern Afi~IUCN and SADC, Narare, Nov 1991) Major water transfer schemes shown by arrows on the map, include the first international interbasin water transfer in southern Africa, from the Cunene to the Cuvela in Namibia; plans for diverting wa- ter from the Okavango to Namibia; plans to divert water from the Zambezi-Chobwe to Botswana, and possibly further to South Africa in several steps; and the largest water transfer scheme in the world, the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, which will bring water to South Africa’s industrial heartland. Assessments of present and future water scarcity is based on deliberations in the study. Main Study: Water and Security in Southern Africa Background The triad peace, security and social development is identified by the Swedish government as the foundation for its foreign policy. Conflict prevention and re- solution will be explicitly supported. A special Foreign Office deputy under-se- creterary of state, responsible for security issues, has been appointed. The im- portance of creating regional structures with a capability of preventing conflicts and incorporating South Africa in the SADC (Southern African Development Community) regional cooperation is underlined. Aspecial task force on security m Africa has been formed; the task to deliver a thorough analysis of security is- sues, compile information on the origins of conflict and available experiences on conflict resolution, and propose relevant Swedish development assistance programmes, directed primarily at southern and eastern Africa. The foreign mi- nister for development assistance has stressed that competition for natural re- sources may lead to serious conflicts in the future. Water scarcity is identified as the potentially greatest future cause of conflict in the SADC region.1 At the first SADC Conference where the new South Africa took part, in Ja- nuary 1995, the Swedish diplomatic representation made a special address to member states, urging them to treat water issues as a priority area.2 Ongoing at- tempts to create a mechanism for SADC regional management of shared water resources have been initiated and supported by Sida and other aid agencies. The May 1995 high-level meeting of the OECD (Organization for Econo- mic Cooperation and Development) Development Assistance Committe (DAC), confirmed the dedication of member states to conflict prevention and resolution, and the importance of development assistance in the preventive aspects of this work. The need to concentrate efforts on the areas of human nghts and demo- cracy was particularly stressed, as was measures to increase prospects of food security. The Swedish representative underlined the importance of developing networks of global and regional organizations for conflict management.3 1 Internal Memo, Sida NaturalResources Management Division, 950502 2 Internal Memo, Foreign Office, 1U2, 950224 3 Internal Memo, Foreign Office, 1U3, 950710. 2 Water and Security in Southern Africa Acting on these guidelines, Sida is preparing for a new programme on Re- gional Water Resources Management (RWRM) in the SADC-region. Building on existing knowledge in the region, the programme aims at increasing regional and national capacity. Asub-objective is to couple Swedish institutions with in- stitutions in the region to mutual benefit. As part of the preparation, the present desk study on the relationship between different types of water scarcities and potential conflicts related to water resources in the SADC-region was cOmmis- sioned; the study also to suggest a framework for a more thorough investigation, and identify research institutions in Sweden with relevant capacity. This study The study has three main points of departure: (1) Perceptions of security
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