Israel and Middle East News Update

Wednesday, August 5

Headlines: ● Dozens Dead, Thousands Injured in Beirut Explosion ● PM Warns Hezbollah Amid Tensions Along Northern Border ● Gantz Mulling Anti-Netanyahu Legislation ● Yair Lapid Leading List of Netanyahu’s Adversaries ● Senior US Official: 'No New Decision on Sovereignty Plan' ● Palestinians: Israel is 'Secretly' Imposing Annexation Plan ● Hanegbi: We Will Take Over Gaza Again ● Changing Aid Terms Hit Defense Harder Than Expected

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Budget is Only an Excuse” - By Yuval Karni

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “New Social Contract” - By Giora Eiland

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts August 5, 2020 Jerusalem Post Dozens Dead, Thousands Injured in Beirut Explosion A huge explosion in a port warehouse district near the center of Beirut killed dozens, injured over 4,000 others and sent shockwaves across the Lebanese capital, shattering windows and causing some buildings to collapse. Multiple videos from the area showed a plume of smoke rising near the coastline and then a large blast and shockwave. Buildings throughout the area were damaged in the blast, including media offices and Lebanon’s electrical company. The cause of the explosion remained uncertain. Initial reports indicated that the fire occurred in a warehouse storing fireworks and video from the scene appeared to show fireworks igniting shortly before the blast. Additional reports claim that a nearby warehouse was storing explosive chemicals that had been confiscated at the port. See also ‘‘'We Share Your Pain': Israel Offers Aid to Lebanon After Beirut Port Blast’’ (Ha’aretz)

Times of Israel PM Warns Hezbollah Amid Tensions Along Northern Border Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah and others, after Israeli forces said they thwarted an infiltration attempt from Syria by suspected militants. The IDF announced that it had struck targets in Syria after the militants tried to plant explosives in the Golan Heights. The four suspects were believed to have been killed by an Israeli missile strike while carrying out the attempted attack in the pre-dawn hours. Netanyahu, who toured a military base in the central city of Ramle, said Israel would not hesitate to take further action. The Haaretz daily reported that the military believed that an Iranian proxy militia was responsible for the attempted attack, not Hezbollah, with which Israel has been in a standoff over the past two weeks. See also ‘‘Netanyahu Hails IDF Response in Syria That 'Hit the Dispatchers’’ (Ynet News)

Arutz Sheva Gantz Mulling Anti-Netanyahu Legislation Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz's associates are examining whether they will be able to pass a law against Netanyahu's candidacy for Prime Minister before the Knesset dissolves on August 24 if they do not reach agreements on the budget, Channel 13 News reported. According to the agreement between Netanyahu and Gantz, if a budget is not approved by August 24, the Knesset will be automatically dissolved, so the law to disqualify a candidate with indictments must pass by that date to prevent Netanyahu from running in the next election. Meanwhile, two important votes are scheduled to be brought before the Knesset on Wednesday that will further undermine coalition stability: The establishment of a parliamentary inquiry committee for the submarine affair and a vote on the “Overrule Clause”. See also ‘‘Israel's Leaders Locked in Budget Battle as Economic Crisis Deepens’’ (Ynet News)

2 Al-Monitor Yair Lapid Leading List of Netanyahu’s Adversaries Netanyahu has been plunging in the polls, with his Likud party losing more than 10 Knesset seats in recent weeks. The latest results indicate that the right-wing bloc of parties and the center-left bloc are back to the tie of the past three elections. Nonetheless, so far, no arrowhead, no anti-Netanyahu alternative has emerged to challenge him. Other candidates for the challenger’s job, in descending order of their prospects, are centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid, Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, former military chief Gadi Eizenkot, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman. Gantz is last. Popular Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai is a new and surprising addition to the list, albeit still not officially so. He is said to be considering a national political run at the head of a new party. See also ‘‘Likud Facing Debts, Firing Staff, Mulling Selling Branches – Exclusive’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Arutz Sheva Senior US Official: 'No New Decision on Sovereignty Plan' The US and Israel are continuing to work together to reach a deal on Israel’s plan to apply sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria, a senior US official said. Responding to comments by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in which he told Likud faction members the sovereignty plan remains on the agenda and is being held up by Washington, a senior US official told Kan that talks between the US and Israel are continuing. “We’re still working to move forward on the path that President Trump laid out in January, when he unveiled the Trump plan and the US plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians,” the source said. The official added that “at this stage there is still no final decision regarding the steps to implement the plan.” See also ‘‘Knesset Bill Filed to Repeal 2005 Disengagement Law’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Palestinians: Israel is 'Secretly' Imposing Annexation Plan Palestinian officials claimed that Israel is “secretly” implementing its plan to apply sovereignty to portions of the West Bank and said they would pursue their efforts to foil the move. Responding to Prime Minister Netanyahu, who stated that the annexation plan “has not been taken off the agenda,” the officials again warned that such a move would constitute a “blatant violation of international law.” The official claimed that Israel’s actions on the ground show that it has been taking various measures to pave the way for the implementation of the annexation plan. The official praised 15 European countries for recently issuing a formal diplomatic complaint to the Israeli Foreign Ministry over construction in the E1 area and Givat Hamatos. Givat Hamatos is within Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, while E1 is to the east of the city, between Jerusalem and Ma’aleh Adumim. Israel recently authorized the constriction of more than 1,000 housing units in Givat Hamatos. See also ‘‘The Palestinian Authority is Harming Its Own People in the Name of National Pride’’ (Ha’aretz)

3 I24 News Hanegbi: We Will Take Over Gaza Again Israel will eventually have to invade Gaza and take over control of the Hamas-run enclave, Israel’s Community Affairs Minister, Tzachi Hanegbi, told i24NEWS in an exclusive interview. "We will eventually have to go all the way into Gaza and taker over, because one day it will be impossible to do so. One day there will be so many rockets and missiles fired from Gaza that the Israeli public won't accept the status quo anymore" Hanegbi said. His comments came after a rocket was fired from Gaza at Israel on Sunday. And while Hanegbi assesses that invading the Gaza Strip is inevitable, he also acknowledged the heavy costs in doing so. "It's going to be painful. Sometimes terrorist organizations lose it, out of delusion or frustration. And this is when you are left without any option. I wouldn't initiate going all the way in. Even when we have to take over the Gaza Strip one day, we don't want to control the lives of two million people," Hanegbi said. Israel unilaterally pulled out of the Gaza Strip in August 2005 "Disengagement." Hamas took control of the Strip in 2007 after a bloody and violent coup against the Palestinian Authority.

Ha’aretz Changing Aid Terms Hit Defense Harder Than Expected Israel’s Defense Ministry is expected to reduce procurements from the domestic arms industry by a larger-than-expected $1.6 billion by the year 2028 due to the changing conditions of U.S. aid, the State Comptroller estimated in a report released on Monday. The estimate is higher than those that have been cited until now and, if correct, will pose a bigger problem for the Israeli defense industry than had been expected. Moreover, the comptroller said, the Defense Ministry has not acted to prepare the local arms industry for the drop. Under a 10-year military aid agreement signed with the United States four years ago, the percentage of aid Israel can convert into shekels to spend domestically gradually declines, mostly after 2025, from 26% of the total to zero. The comptroller’s higher estimate is due to the fact that it expects the United States to limit the extent to which Israel can use aid money to buy raw materials in the U.S. on the grounds that purchases like that don’t help the U.S. defense industry.

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 5, 2020 The Budget is Only an Excuse By Yuval Karni ● Prime Minister Netanyahu has many reasons not to keep the coalition agreement and to take this sick government off the ventilator. The link between Blue and White and the Likud isn’t working; Gantz lost his electoral strength and making him prime minister would be distorting the will of the voters. Netanyahu has a long history of not keeping promises or agreements, and to his credit it should be said that he’s not the only one. That’s politics. When the Likud and Blue and White formed the unity government, Netanyahu pledged incontrovertibly that he would keep the alternating premiership agreement, “no shticks and no tricks,” as he put it. Netanyahu has a problematic record when it comes to unity governments or cooperating with political rivals: In the course of his long political career, he has thrown senior politicians like Shaul Mofaz, Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni under the bus of his unity government and stayed behind the wheel on his own. Everyone warned Gantz against joining a unity government with Netanyahu, but Netanyahu managed to persuade him that in November 2021 he would vacate his place on Balfour Street for the new resident, Gantz. ● Even the people most suspicious of Netanyahu didn’t believe that the political dirty tricks would start a few weeks after the unity government was born, which in any case entered the world as a breach birth. Netanyahu can violate the agreement in another six months, maybe even a year, a moment before turning over the keys, and no one would get worked up. But to topple a government and lead Israel to elections for the fourth time, three months after the government was established? Does anyone believe that we’ll drag an entire country to an unnecessary election over [a disagreement over having] a budget for four months or for 15? ● At first it was easy to be convinced that Netanyahu truly and sincerely thought that only a three-month budget would save the country and eradicate the coronavirus. Finance Minister Yisrael Katz even produced a professional opinion by Accountant General Rony Hizkiyahu and Budgets Department Director Shaul Meridor from mid-June in favor of a six-month budget. Two months went by, these opinions evaporated, and ever since then it’s been hard to find senior Finance Ministry officials or economists who support a six- month budget. And as more time goes by, the more people realize how absurd it is for Netanyahu to demand that a budget be approved for [only] 2020, which will be over soon (in economic terms). ● But that doesn’t matter, because Netanyahu has decided to have elections. That’s his prerogative. But telling us that he plans to drag an entire country into an election in the winter is the most transparent trick. Truth be told, it’s even a little insulting. Gantz can be accused of having played right into Netanyahu’s hands, and he’ll ultimately bear responsibility for further elections. But he can also be understood: if Netanyahu won’t keep the budget clause in the coalition agreement, how will he honor the alternating premiership agreement?

5 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 5, 2020 New Social Contract By Giora Eiland ● Until about 300 years ago, European monarchs ruled by what was considered divine right—no one could challenge their absolute authority, and they had no obligations towards their subjects. Starting from the mid-17 th century a new wind started blowing, along with the claim that states existed by virtue of a social contract between the citizens and the sovereign—that is, the citizens concede some of their liberty, and in return, the sovereign is supposed to afford them safety and stability. This social contract is a most important convention, although it is neither precisely defined nor expressed in a written document. Nevertheless, it is the source of legitimacy of the laws, and even of constitutions. Why, for example, do all Americans take it for granted that the Constitution is still valid today? It is, after all, a document that was formulated by a small group of pro-slavery elitists some 240 years ago. The answer is simple: there is a widespread consensus that it’s right. ● Israel was also founded according to an unwritten social contract that creates understandings regarding the nature of the relationship between the government and the citizens. But over the years, and especially in the past decade, cracks have begun to appear in this contract. The cracks relate to two areas: norms and the system for running the country. The norm expected from the government is that it will act as the public’s “trustee” and for the sole benefit of the public. The path may be different—Ben-Gurion and Begin were fierce political rivals and they believed in different ideologies, as did Rabin and Shamir—but no one disputes that they were “trustees.” The second and equally important assertion is that the State of Israel is being run inefficiently. And no, this has nothing to do with the coronavirus. ● In fact, we have been taking a long list of false assumptions for granted—some of which have always been wrong, some of which were only right at a certain time, and some of which resulted from deviating further and further from the correct or efficient way. The state budget, for example—the Arrangements Law, the coalition funds, and the system of transferring money between clauses [in coalition agreements] were not meant to help the public, but rather to allow the MKs to benefit various groups and receive credit for it. This is not the result of a particular prime minister’s actions; it’s the system. ● Three months ago, a 36-minister cabinet was formed—that was not the price that had to be paid in order to reach a political compromise, since the same balance between the sides would also have been preserved had there been an 18-minister cabinet. Rather, it was about wanting to satisfy a number of people at the expense of the public coffers. There is a direct line that connects the way the government was formed to many decisions that have been made about managing the coronavirus crisis, the common denominator being ulterior motives that were depicted as national interests. ● The judicial branch is not in much better shape. When high-ranking judges emphasize the importance of “the rule of law,” they mean the opposite—the rule of the judges. US

6 President George W. Bush said that it would always be preferable for organizations to be stronger than their leaders, referring first and foremost to the country. The main argument against Netanyahu is that he has been attempting—successfully—to entrench the opposite situation. He bears a great deal of responsibility for this, but he has many partners in the three branches—the government, the Knesset and the courts. The public’s welfare has been trampled for the sake of personal or organizational power struggles everywhere. The coronavirus crisis merely illustrates what has existed a long time. ● The demonstrators are currently protesting primarily the disconnect between the people and its elected officials. They aren’t demanding a lower cost of living, like in 2011, but they are making a much more important demand—that the leaders be “the public’s trustees.” The coronavirus crisis just accelerated what has long been obvious: Israel needs profound change, a social contract for 2020.

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