Israel and Middle East News Update Wednesday, August 5 Headlines: ● Dozens Dead, Thousands Injured in Beirut Explosion ● PM Warns Hezbollah Amid Tensions Along Northern Border ● Gantz Mulling Anti-Netanyahu Legislation ● Yair Lapid Leading List of Netanyahu’s Adversaries ● Senior US Official: 'No New Decision on Sovereignty Plan' ● Palestinians: Israel is 'Secretly' Imposing Annexation Plan ● Hanegbi: We Will Take Over Gaza Again ● Changing Aid Terms Hit Defense Harder Than Expected Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Budget is Only an Excuse” - By Yuval Karni ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “New Social Contract” - By Giora Eiland S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts August 5, 2020 Jerusalem Post Dozens Dead, Thousands Injured in Beirut Explosion A huge explosion in a port warehouse district near the center of Beirut killed dozens, injured over 4,000 others and sent shockwaves across the Lebanese capital, shattering windows and causing some buildings to collapse. Multiple videos from the area showed a plume of smoke rising near the coastline and then a large blast and shockwave. Buildings throughout the area were damaged in the blast, including media offices and Lebanon’s electrical company. The cause of the explosion remained uncertain. Initial reports indicated that the fire occurred in a warehouse storing fireworks and video from the scene appeared to show fireworks igniting shortly before the blast. Additional reports claim that a nearby warehouse was storing explosive chemicals that had been confiscated at the port. See also ‘‘'We Share Your Pain': Israel Offers Aid to Lebanon After Beirut Port Blast’’ (Ha’aretz) Times of Israel PM Warns Hezbollah Amid Tensions Along Northern Border Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah and others, after Israeli forces said they thwarted an infiltration attempt from Syria by suspected militants. The IDF announced that it had struck targets in Syria after the militants tried to plant explosives in the Golan Heights. The four suspects were believed to have been killed by an Israeli missile strike while carrying out the attempted attack in the pre-dawn hours. Netanyahu, who toured a military base in the central city of Ramle, said Israel would not hesitate to take further action. The Haaretz daily reported that the military believed that an Iranian proxy militia was responsible for the attempted attack, not Hezbollah, with which Israel has been in a standoff over the past two weeks. See also ‘‘Netanyahu Hails IDF Response in Syria That 'Hit the Dispatchers’’ (Ynet News) Arutz Sheva Gantz Mulling Anti-Netanyahu Legislation Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz's associates are examining whether they will be able to pass a law against Netanyahu's candidacy for Prime Minister before the Knesset dissolves on August 24 if they do not reach agreements on the budget, Channel 13 News reported. According to the agreement between Netanyahu and Gantz, if a budget is not approved by August 24, the Knesset will be automatically dissolved, so the law to disqualify a candidate with indictments must pass by that date to prevent Netanyahu from running in the next election. Meanwhile, two important votes are scheduled to be brought before the Knesset on Wednesday that will further undermine coalition stability: The establishment of a parliamentary inquiry committee for the submarine affair and a vote on the “Overrule Clause”. See also ‘‘Israel's Leaders Locked in Budget Battle as Economic Crisis Deepens’’ (Ynet News) 2 Al-Monitor Yair Lapid Leading List of Netanyahu’s Adversaries Netanyahu has been plunging in the polls, with his Likud party losing more than 10 Knesset seats in recent weeks. The latest results indicate that the right-wing bloc of parties and the center-left bloc are back to the tie of the past three elections. Nonetheless, so far, no arrowhead, no anti-Netanyahu alternative has emerged to challenge him. Other candidates for the challenger’s job, in descending order of their prospects, are centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid, Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, former military chief Gadi Eizenkot, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman. Gantz is last. Popular Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai is a new and surprising addition to the list, albeit still not officially so. He is said to be considering a national political run at the head of a new party. See also ‘‘Likud Facing Debts, Firing Staff, Mulling Selling Branches – Exclusive’’ (Jerusalem Post) Arutz Sheva Senior US Official: 'No New Decision on Sovereignty Plan' The US and Israel are continuing to work together to reach a deal on Israel’s plan to apply sovereignty over parts of Judea and Samaria, a senior US official said. Responding to comments by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in which he told Likud faction members the sovereignty plan remains on the agenda and is being held up by Washington, a senior US official told Kan that talks between the US and Israel are continuing. “We’re still working to move forward on the path that President Trump laid out in January, when he unveiled the Trump plan and the US plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians,” the source said. The official added that “at this stage there is still no final decision regarding the steps to implement the plan.” See also ‘‘Knesset Bill Filed to Repeal 2005 Disengagement Law’’ (Jerusalem Post) Jerusalem Post Palestinians: Israel is 'Secretly' Imposing Annexation Plan Palestinian officials claimed that Israel is “secretly” implementing its plan to apply sovereignty to portions of the West Bank and said they would pursue their efforts to foil the move. Responding to Prime Minister Netanyahu, who stated that the annexation plan “has not been taken off the agenda,” the officials again warned that such a move would constitute a “blatant violation of international law.” The official claimed that Israel’s actions on the ground show that it has been taking various measures to pave the way for the implementation of the annexation plan. The official praised 15 European countries for recently issuing a formal diplomatic complaint to the Israeli Foreign Ministry over construction in the E1 area and Givat Hamatos. Givat Hamatos is within Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries, while E1 is to the east of the city, between Jerusalem and Ma’aleh Adumim. Israel recently authorized the constriction of more than 1,000 housing units in Givat Hamatos. See also ‘‘The Palestinian Authority is Harming Its Own People in the Name of National Pride’’ (Ha’aretz) 3 I24 News Hanegbi: We Will Take Over Gaza Again Israel will eventually have to invade Gaza and take over control of the Hamas-run enclave, Israel’s Community Affairs Minister, Tzachi Hanegbi, told i24NEWS in an exclusive interview. "We will eventually have to go all the way into Gaza and taker over, because one day it will be impossible to do so. One day there will be so many rockets and missiles fired from Gaza that the Israeli public won't accept the status quo anymore" Hanegbi said. His comments came after a rocket was fired from Gaza at Israel on Sunday. And while Hanegbi assesses that invading the Gaza Strip is inevitable, he also acknowledged the heavy costs in doing so. "It's going to be painful. Sometimes terrorist organizations lose it, out of delusion or frustration. And this is when you are left without any option. I wouldn't initiate going all the way in. Even when we have to take over the Gaza Strip one day, we don't want to control the lives of two million people," Hanegbi said. Israel unilaterally pulled out of the Gaza Strip in August 2005 "Disengagement." Hamas took control of the Strip in 2007 after a bloody and violent coup against the Palestinian Authority. Ha’aretz Changing Aid Terms Hit Defense Harder Than Expected Israel’s Defense Ministry is expected to reduce procurements from the domestic arms industry by a larger-than-expected $1.6 billion by the year 2028 due to the changing conditions of U.S. aid, the State Comptroller estimated in a report released on Monday. The estimate is higher than those that have been cited until now and, if correct, will pose a bigger problem for the Israeli defense industry than had been expected. Moreover, the comptroller said, the Defense Ministry has not acted to prepare the local arms industry for the drop. Under a 10-year military aid agreement signed with the United States four years ago, the percentage of aid Israel can convert into shekels to spend domestically gradually declines, mostly after 2025, from 26% of the total to zero. The comptroller’s higher estimate is due to the fact that it expects the United States to limit the extent to which Israel can use aid money to buy raw materials in the U.S. on the grounds that purchases like that don’t help the U.S. defense industry. 4 Yedioth Ahronoth – August 5, 2020 The Budget is Only an Excuse By Yuval Karni ● Prime Minister Netanyahu has many reasons not to keep the coalition agreement and to take this sick government off the ventilator. The link between Blue and White and the Likud isn’t working; Gantz lost his electoral strength and making him prime minister would be distorting the will of the voters. Netanyahu has a long history of not keeping promises or agreements, and to his credit it should be said that he’s not the only one. That’s politics. When the Likud and Blue and White formed the unity government, Netanyahu pledged incontrovertibly that he would keep the alternating premiership agreement, “no shticks and no tricks,” as he put it.