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In Colombia. by Juanita Barrera Ramirez

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In Colombia. by Juanita Barrera Ramirez Evaluating the implications of the “National Comprehensive Program for the Substitution of Illicit Crops” in Colombia. By Juanita Barrera Ramirez Evaluating the implications of the “National Comprehensive Program for the Substitution of Illicit Crops” in Colombia. By Juanita Barrera Ramirez In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Industrial Ecology at Leiden University and Delft University of Technology. Date of submission: August 20th 2017. First supervisor: Dr. Valentina Prado, Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University. Second supervisor: Dr. Havar Solheim, Latin American Studies, Leiden University. i ABSTRACT The peace treaty of Colombia has promised to end over fifty years of armed conflict, which has been significantly financed by the cultivation and processing of illicit crops. The treaty contemplates a substitution policy that offers financial incentives and social investment to the coca-growing communities to replace their illicit crops by legal alternatives. This study examines the substitution policy tradeoffs in the Putumayo-Caquetá and the Catatumbo regions, by applying Life Cycle Assessment framework coupled with socioeconomic indicators, to four scenarios. Implications of coca cultivation and its derivatives (Business-as-Usual scenario) were evaluated and contrasted with the successful implementation of the policy (Policy Success scenario), a partial substitution of the illegal crops (Conservative scenario) and the geographical displacement of coca cultivation (Balloon Effect scenario). Compared to the Business-as-Usual scenario, Policy Success, and Conservative scenarios mitigate photochemical oxidation, ozone layer and abiotic resources depletion environmental impacts in both regions. In contrast, acidification and eutrophication in the Catatumbo region and toxicity impacts in the Putumayo-Caquetá region worsen. For both regions, Balloon Effect scenario increases the environmental burden in almost all the categories evaluated. The socioeconomic analysis reveals that for the Catatumbo region farmers, successful implementation of the policy implies a reduction on their income .For coca-growing farmers of Putumayo-Caquetá region, Policy Success scenario has a positive impact on the income and job generation, while Conservative and Balloon Effect reduce the profit. In general, it was observed that the dynamics of the illegal chain varies from region to region, influencing the environmental and socioeconomic outcome of the substitution policy. ii ACKNOWLEDGES At the end of 2016, I was finishing the LCA course, and at the same time, I started thinking about my thesis project. Reading about the great number of benefits the peace treaty would bring to my homeland and also the challenges that it would represent, gave me the idea of conducting an LCA of the peace treaty in Colombia. And that was the beginning of my thesis journey I shared my thoughts with Valentina Prado and Havar Solheim, who were very enthusiastic about the idea and agreed to be my supervisors. Thanks to their guidance I managed to define the boundaries of my work. They always patiently listened to all my questions and concerns and helped me to find the best solution. Their invaluable feedback helped me to enhance the quality of my study. I am very grateful with Hernando Bernal, Laura Castro and German Abaunza from UNODC in Colombia. Thanks for providing me all the data necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of the cocaine production in Colombia. Without their help and time, this work could not be possible. My deepest gratitude to Camilo, for his unconditional support and help, because it does not matter how big and tough I saw the problem, he always found the way to make it easier for me. Thanks for all the meaningful conversations that provided me a new perspective on life. For being my home away from Colombia. Thanks to my brother for being the endless source of inspiration and admiration. My eternal gratitude to my parents and my grandma Julia, for always encouraging me to pursue my ideas and dreams. For their love and unfailing support, even from distance I knew you were always by my side. I want to thank Carolina, Juanita, Mariana, Stella, Nana, and Naty, who made available their support in some many ways. To all my EI friends thanks for the interesting discussions that made me reaffirm that a sustainable world is possible. Thanks for filling my heart with so many warm memories. Last but not least I want to thank my country for giving me the opportunity of being part of the “peace building generation.” Muchas gracias! iii TABLE OF CONTENT Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledges......................................................................................................................................... iii Glossary .................................................................................................................................................. vi List of abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. vii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Hypothesis and research aim .......................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Hypothesis ............................................................................................................................... 3 2.2. Research aim ........................................................................................................................... 3 3. Coca cultivation and processing in Colombia .................................................................................. 4 3.1. Description of the zones under study...................................................................................... 6 3.1.1. Catatumbo Region ........................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2. Putumayo-Caquetá Region .............................................................................................. 7 3.2. Experiences eradicating coca plantations ............................................................................... 9 3.3. National Comprehensive Program for the Substitution of Illicit Crops .................................... 9 4. Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 11 4.1. Scenarios ............................................................................................................................... 11 4.2. Life Cycle Assessment ............................................................................................................ 12 4.2.1. Goal and scope definition .............................................................................................. 14 4.2.2. Inventory analysis .......................................................................................................... 15 4.2.3. Life Cycle Impact Assessment ........................................................................................ 22 4.2.4. Interpretation ................................................................................................................ 23 4.3. Socioeconomic analysis ......................................................................................................... 24 4.3.1. Net Income of farmers .................................................................................................. 24 4.3.2. Jornales ......................................................................................................................... 25 4.3.3. Income for the jornaleros .............................................................................................. 26 4.3.4. Market value ................................................................................................................. 26 5. Results ........................................................................................................................................... 27 5.1. Life Cycle Assessment ............................................................................................................ 27 5.1.1. Impact assessment ........................................................................................................ 27 5.1.2. Interpretation ................................................................................................................ 29 5.2. Socioeconomic analysis ......................................................................................................... 32 5.3. Scenarios Results ................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.1. Environmental assessment ............................................................................................ 33 5.3.2. Socioeconomic assessment ........................................................................................... 38 iv 6. Discussion ...................................................................................................................................... 40 7. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................
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