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Gold Price Dynamics Around the Clock
Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance 15th May 2019 Gold Price Dynamics Around the Clock Authors: Francesco Donati (115765) Johannes A. Jung (115540) Supervisor: Paul Whelan Pages: 98 Characters: 183,273 Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Advanced Economics and Finance (Cand.Oecon) Acknowledgements We want to thank Copenhagen Business School for the splendid learning opportunity. We express our deep gratitude to the thesis supervisor, Paul Whelan, for his guidance. We want to thank our friends and families for their precious support during this exciting last period of our student life. A special mention goes to our parents, of course. We want to thank the amazing people met in the program, their energy, drive and diversity inspired and improved us. We will be missing all the ups and downs of student's life. Further, we want to thank Beyza and Emanuela, for the laughs and joy they brought us every day. Lastly, Johannes wants to mention that his girl Ploy is more precious than gold to him. Francesco & Johannes Abstract In this thesis we examine intraday behaviour of gold prices in the 24 hours day. We make a distinction between eastern world (China, India) and western world (US, Europe). We suspect that the intraday pattern may be affected by two factors: (i) large gold imports by eastern countries and (ii) manipulation of the London Gold Fix. We find a hat-shaped intraday seasonality, with gold appreciating during eastern trading hours in a robust way and depreciating for the rest of the day. -
The Effect of Lease Rates on Precious Metals Markets by Merlin Marr-Johnson, Metals Analyst, HSBC Bank USA
THE LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION The Effect of Lease Rates on Precious Metals Markets By Merlin Marr-Johnson, Metals Analyst, HSBC Bank USA In the precious metals First, it is probably worth Gold the interest rate differential returning to the simplest Again, the key to lease rates is in between dollar yields and lease markets, lease rates are fundamental of all. As changes in the supply and demand of lending. rates.The producers therefore buying (demand) and selling Staying with gold, the supply side unwittingly reinforced the frequently cited as root (supply) affect prices, so changes for gold lease rates rests firmly on arguments for a declining spot in borrowing (demand) and the large lending reserves market and a rising lease rate. causes for metal price lending (supply) affect lease rates. available to the market. Central The borrowing, of course, banks currently hold helped generate a strong demand behaviour. However, the A lease rate is simply the going approximately 29,000 tonnes of environment for borrowed market ‘price’ for borrowing or gold (multi-lateral institutions gold, which elevated lease rates reason for the lease rate lending the market. If a market is hold around another 4,200 to over 2%. oversupplied relative to demand, tonnes).With the perceived behaviour itself is rarely prices/lease rates are low, and if a economic stability of the 1990s, The reason for the shift lower in market is undersupplied relative and strong returns being achieved lease rates since 2000 stems from examined. This short to demand, prices/lease rates are by most asset classes, central bank an almost total reversal of every high. -
Indian Gold Book:Indian Gold Book
AN INTRODUCTION TO THE INDIAN GOLD MARKET MAJOR SPONSOR WORLD GOLD COUNCIL CORPORATE SPONSOR RAND REFINERY LIMITED Published by Virtual Metals Research & Consulting Ltd and Grendon International Research Pty Ltd AN INTRODUCTION TO THE INDIAN GOLD MARKET INDUSTRY COMMENTS Comments in letters, faxes and emails include: Reserve Bank of India (“an excellent work”), State Bank of India (“excellent coverage”) and The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (“a wonderful, educative, informative book”). “This volume is an absolute boon … The resulting accumulation of facts and data is of fantastic value to anyone who wants to understand the history and nature of the world’s most important market for gold.” London Bullion Market Association “It has provided an excellent basis for the Council and its members to learn about the complex dynamics of the market, and also is a strong foundation for us to review our operational business plans and strategies for the Indian market … it has added significant value to our operations there.” World Gold Council “It is necessary to understand the intricacy of market structures and the historical sequence of events (of the Indian gold market). The book by Nigel Desebrock … provides a veritable gold mine of authentic information”. S.S. Tarapore (former Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India), Financial Express (India) PHONE AND FAX NUMBERS IN INDIA In October 2002, Mumbai telephone exchanges either prefixed a “2” to the local number, or replaced the first digit with “56”. Since then, exchanges in other cities have also made changes. In this publication, while the listed Mumbai numbers take the changes into account, numbers for other parts of the country do not. -
The London Bullion Market Association Responsible Gold Guidance
The London Bullion Market Association Responsible Gold Guidance About the London Bullion Market Association The LBMA is the international trade association that represents the market for gold and silver bullion, which is centred in London but has a global client base, including the majority of the central banks that hold gold, private sector investors, mining companies, producers, refiners and fabricators. The current membership includes 129 companies which are actively involved in the loco London bullion market, including trading houses, banks, refiners, miners and fabricators as well as those providing services to the market such as consultants, supervisors and assayers. The membership encompasses a total of 22 countries. The LBMA was formally incorporated in 1987 at the behest of the Bank of England to take over the roles previously played by two separate organisations, the London Gold Market and London Silver Market, whose origins go back to the mid-nineteenth century. The LBMA Good Delivery List In the refining industry, the LBMA Good Delivery List includes the world’s pre-eminent refiners of gold and silver, located in 31 countries. The List is widely recognized as the de facto standard for the quality of gold and silver market bars. This recognition is based on the stringent criteria that applicants must satisfy before being listed, as well as the regular proactive monitoring of accredited refiners by the LBMA. In addition to satisfying the LBMA’s technical standards, a refiner seeking LBMA accreditation must meet a number of non-technical criteria in relation to ownership, tangible net worth and operating history. In response to the Dodd-Frank legislation on conflict minerals emanating from the DRC, the LBMA has informed all gold refiners on the List that in order to maintain their Good Delivery status, they will have to demonstrate that their refined output is conflict-free. -
The LBMA Bullion Market Forum 2015 in Association with the Shanghai Gold Exchange
A local Forum for a global market The LBMA Bullion Market Forum 2015 In association with the Shanghai Gold Exchange 24 - 25 June 2015 Mandarin Oriental Shanghai Why You Should Attend This Forum Given Shanghai’s importance in the Global Bullion Markets, the LBMA is holding a Bullion Market Forum in partnership with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The Forum will take place over two days with a one-day seminar focusing on issues of relevance to market participants, both in Shanghai and in countries that trade with China. Attend the Forum to meet Bullion Market contacts, both new and old. Senior representatives of the London, Shanghai and other international Bullion Markets will be in attendance. The Forum begins with a Welcome Dinner on Wednesday, 24 June sponsored by the SGE. The formal proceedings start on Thursday, 25 June with a full day of Forum sessions. Central Bankers… Dealers… Producers… Fabricators… Refiners… Brokers… Analysts… Marketers. There’s a place for all market players at the LBMA Bullion Forum. Make sure to reserve yours now. To register for the Forum click here Registration Fee: The registration fee is £595 per delegate. This includes but we can assist you by providing a letter to accompany your application. the pre-Forum Welcome Dinner on the evening of Wednesday, 24 June, as Please indicate when registering whether or not you require a visa letter. well as attendance at all the Forum sessions on Thursday, 25 June, including all refreshments, coffee breaks and lunch. (Please note our letter will only cover the date of the Forum and allow for reasonable time to travel to and from Shanghai.) Marketing Opportunities: Shanghai provides a unique opportunity for exhibitors to promote themselves, their companies and their products to Do you need assistance with a visa application? If you need assistance with senior representatives of the London, Shanghai and International Bullion a visa application, the LBMA suggests contacting Trans World Visa Services. -
The Last Central Bank Gold Agreement
ALCHEMIST ISSUE 96 THE LAST CENTRAL BANK GOLD AGREEMENT This is an extract from the European Since 1999 the OVER TIME INNOVATIONS gold market has IN FINANCIAL ENGINEERING Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin, grown and matured FACILITATED THE USE OF GOLD Issue 7 2019, reproduced with the in terms of liquidity AS A FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT 2 kind permission of the ECB. and investor base . THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT The structure of the OF EXCHANGE-TRADED gold market differs The last Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) expired in September from that of other PRODUCTS TRACKING GOLD 2019 after 20 years of such agreements. The CBGAs’ signatories financial assets, as PRICES AND BACKED BY included the Eurosystem and the central banks of Sweden, Switzerland gold does not only PHYSICAL GOLD and – initially – the United Kingdom. The first CBGA1 was set up in 1999 serve investment for a five-year period, when concerns about the negative market impact of purposes, but also has practical uses. At the time of the first CBGA, uncoordinated gold sales by central banks were evident, and increasing, the diversity of demand for physical gold was low and concentrated in the gold market. The goal of the CBGAs was to help stabilise the gold in jewellery, while the contribution to demand from the official sector market by alleviating these concerns, relieving downward pressure on was negative. gold prices, and contributing towards more balanced supply and demand conditions by limiting and coordinating central banks’ gold sales. The CHART A Agreement was renewed three times, each time for a five-year period. -
Bank Primer - 2018
I NSTITUTIONAL E Q U I T Y R ESEARCH Robert Sedran, CFA Marco Giurleo, CFA Christopher Bailey Financials I N D U S T R Y P RIMER February 20, 2018 Bank Primer - 2018 Canadian Banking 101 All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. 18-152284 © 2018 CIBC World Markets Corp., the U.S. broker-dealer, and CIBC World Markets Inc., the Canadian broker-dealer (collectively, CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc.) do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that CIBC World Markets Corp./Inc. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 144. Find CIBC research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000 FactSet, Capital IQ and ResearchCentral.cibcwm.com CIBC World Markets Corp., 425 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10017 (212)-856-4000 Bank Primer - 2018 - February 20, 2018 Table of Contents Canadian Banks Snapshot .................................................................... 4 Summary Income Statements ............................................................... 5 Common-Sized Income Statements ........................................................ 6 Summary Balance Sheets .................................................................... -
Metal Matters January, 2010
ScotiaMocatta Metal Matters January 2010 Gold prices underwent a correction in December, driven mainly by a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking ahead of year-end Prices pulled back 12 percent, but are now rallying on fresh investment buying. Traders are waiting to see whether the dollar rally was just year- end book squaring, or the start of a counter trend move Geopolitical issues have also risen to the surface after a quiet 2009, this is likely to add another bullish dimension to the market. Medium-to-long term outlook remains bullish, but short term trading may become erratic, especially if the dollar rebounds again. Silver has moved above the mid-December resistance level, so it is outpacing Gold, which has not yet cleared the $1,142/oz level Better economic data bodes well for industrial demand for Silver, but overall the market will remain dependent on investors’ interest. PGMs reversed their corrections on news that the US were closer to allowing PGM ETFs to be listed on US exchanges Platinum and Palladium have also benefitted from a better than expected pick-up in vehicle sales, but whether this lasts remains to be seen. www.scotiamocatta.com Metal Matters January 2010 Gold prices peaked on 3rd December at likely to hold. In addition, with interest $1,226/oz and are now consolidating rates more likely to be lifted in other The news in early November that the IMF economies first (note: Australia has had sold Gold to India saw prices accelerate already raised rates), interest away from the uptrend line, but in December differentials are likely to keep downward prices started to correct. -
Lending and Borrowing Metal Lending Allocated Metal Options
Editor’s Note SECTION 9 Introduction London Bullion Market Association Lending and Borrowing London Platinum and Palladium Market Metal The Price London Good Delivery – Gold and Silver Deposits and Leases Good Delivery – Platinum and Palladium London Precious Metals Clearing Limited Calculation Basis Precious Metal Accounts Interest Paid in Currency or Metal Lending and Borrowing Metal Lending Allocated Metal Options Precious Metal Benchmarks Forwards Bank of England Outright Forwards Futures Markets and Exchange Traded Products Forward Forwards Physical Metal Documentation Short Dated Forwards Market Regulation Transaction Dates Taxation ‘End End’ Convention Conversion Table Key Facts about Precious Metals Market Size Clearing Statistics Contango or Backwardation Market Trade Statistics Central Bank and Governmental What Determines Metal Interest Rates Ownership of Gold Properties of Precious Metals Receiving Interest on a Deposit Frequently Asked Questions Options Annexes Disclaimer BACK TO CONTENTS 39 THE GUIDE 2017 - Version 1.0 Editor’s Note Lending and Borrowing Metal Introduction London Bullion Market Association It is often blithely asserted that precious metals have no interest rate. At maturity, the loan can be rolled over (depending on credit This is incorrect. considerations), either with the existing lender or with another bank. London Platinum and Palladium Market The lender has full credit exposure to the borrower over the amount of The Price Deposits and Leases the loan – the currency value of which will fluctuate as the underlying The rationale for lending and, particularly, borrowing metal will vary metal price increases or decreases. London Good Delivery – Gold and Silver between gold, silver, platinum and palladium. However, very broadly speaking, lenders of metals will be seeking a return on their investment, However, it is unlikely that the fibreglass manufacturer will have ready Good Delivery – Platinum and Palladium whereas the borrowers will have a variety of motives. -
A Strategy Analysis of the “Big Five” Canadian Banks
A Strategy Analysis Of The “Big Five” Canadian Banks Claudio Eggert APRJ-699 Word Count: 13,716 April 4, 2012 Dr. Conor Vibert ABSTRACT The Canadian banking industry is highly concentrated with the top five banks dominating the sector with a combined market share of over 85% of total assets. This study analyses the individual strategies of the five largest banks as well as their competitive positioning within the Canadian banking sector to get a better understanding of their strategic decisions made over the years and how effectively they have responded to changes in their business environment. The overarching predictions that guide this research are that the banks have comparable domestic but very different international strategies, and that the banks have well-defined strategic plans, which they implement successfully with the long-term goal of profit maximization. The literature reviewed to conduct this study consists of corporate strategy, strategy analysis and competitive analysis literature, which provides insight into a variety of frameworks and tools that are used to analyze the individual strategies of each bank as well as their operating environment. The basic strategic management framework utilized for this study consists of three steps: 1) perform industry analysis, 2) conduct business strategy analysis for each bank, and 3) evaluate strategies and present conclusion. Some of the more recognized frameworks applied in this study are Porter’s Five Forces of Competition and the SWOT analysis diagram. Additional sources consulted for this paper are the annual reports published by the banks over the past ten years as well as reports from the Department of Finance of Canada and the World Economic Forum, among several others. -
China's Gold Market
China’s gold market: progress and prospects About the World Gold Council Contents The World Gold Council is the market development organisation Executive summary 01 for the gold industry. Working within the investment, jewellery Introduction 01 and technology sectors, as well as engaging with governments Key conclusions 02 and central banks, our purpose is to provide industry leadership, China’s developing urban landscape 04 whilst stimulating and sustaining demand for gold. Economic development and the gold market 06 We develop gold-backed solutions, services and markets based Introduction 06 on true market insight. As a result we create structural shifts in Gold market control and de-regulation 07 demand for gold across key market sectors. Economic development and gold demand 09 Policy timeline 10 We provide insights into international gold markets, helping people to better understand the wealth preservation qualities of Jewellery 15 gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs Introduction 15 of society. Market and product structure 17 Factors driving demand 20 Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East, Europe Outlook 24 and the US, the World Gold Council is an association whose Investment 29 members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies. Introduction 29 Factors driving demand 34 Methodology Outlook 38 The World Gold Council commissioned Precious Metals Insights Industrial demand 40 (PMI) to lead the research into the outlook for Chinese gold Overview 40 demand over the medium term (defined as 2014-2017 for the Electronics 41 purpose of this report) and to compose this report that details its Decorative uses 42 findings. -
Zhou Xiaochuan: Gold Market Functions to Hedge Against Risks
Zhou Xiaochuan: Gold market functions to hedge against risks Speech by Mr Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, at the 2004 London Bullion Market Association Annual Precious Metals Conference, Shanghai, 6 September 2004. * * * I would like to congratulate, on behalf of the People’s Bank of China and in my own name, the convening of 2004 London Bullion Market Association Annual Conference on Precious Metals. Relying on improved infrastructure and as a cohesive force in the national economy, Shanghai is developing various types of financial markets. Any of these markets, be it a foreign exchange market, a bond market, a futures market or a gold market, serves as an important center that connects and influences the rest of the country. This is why it is so encouraging and appropriate to hold this year’s Precious Metals Conference in Shanghai. London gold market is the biggest as well as the oldest gold market in the world. In 1804, London replaced Amsterdam to become the world’s gold trading center; in 1919, London gold market was formally founded; and in 1982, London futures market for gold declared its foundation. Currently, the London gold market is trading at a per week volume of 2-3 billion U.S. Dollars, accounting for 43% of the world’s total gold transactions, establishing itself into not only the world’s largest gold sales market, but also a governmental gold trading market for most of the world’s central banks. It is even a major force in influencing the gold prices in many other countries and regions.