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Harry Johnson Ou a Abordagem Canadense Da Balança De Paga- Mentos – Parte 1

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Harry Johnson Ou a Abordagem Canadense Da Balança De Paga- Mentos – Parte 1 38 temas de economia aplicada temas de economia aplicada 39 Harry Johnson ou a Abordagem Canadense da Balança de Paga- mentos – Parte 1 Julio Lucchesi Moraes (*) O presente artigo dá prossegui- - pensamento econômico canadense. tanto no plano biográfico quanto consagrar avanços justamente pela- mento à série de reflexões sobre o no institucional na vida e obra de capacidade de focalização em ques tões e fenômenos até então margi tais figuras. Uma vez mais, enfatizodesen- nalizados na estrutura intelectual Em nosso sobrevoo panorâmico, já volvidoa particularidade e dependente canadense em - da ‘metrópole’. A proposta que aqui tivemos a oportunidade de discutir sua dupla condição de país - mada Abordagem Monetária da Ba- W.A.autores Mackintosh localizados e anos tradição campo das da (das potências lançaavento, de nesse Pagamento sentido, é que a cha stapplesEconomia Política (Harold Innis, europeias durante o período colo nial e dos EUA1 ao longo dos séculos , explorada por- – produtos básicos), das XX e XXI). sãoHarry de Johnsonprioridades entre no 1958 pensamento e 1976, se origina justamente numa inver Relações Internacionais (Robert- - Cox), da Teoria da Comunicação Nesse contexto, o trânsito de ideias- macroeconômico do keynesianis (Dallas Smythe) e mesmo da Filo mentee de pensadores nunca será aoisento longo de dotensão. eixo monetarismo de Chicago. O caso mo de Cambridge e Harvard e o sofia Política (Charles Taylor). O Canadá-EUA não foi e provavel- objetivo deste e dos próximos dois - será semelhante quando de nossa notextos campo da série da Macroeconomia. será o de apresentar Para É certo que, desde cedo, a proximi análise sobre as contribuições de algumas contribuições canadenses- dade cultural, geográfica, linguís Robert Mundell, baseadas, desta - tica, institucional etc. permitiu aos- tanto, centraremos nossas refle acadêmicos canadenses (ao menos vez, na temática cambial. - 1 Para Além de Keynes: Diários xões em duas figuras: Harry Gor os de trato anglófono) possibilida de Uma Conversão don Johnson (1923-1977) e Robert des de internacionalização rela- Mundell (1932-). tivamente rápida, eventualmente- - atingindo posições de grande in Clarifico já aqui que a hipótese fluência e prestígio dentro do ecos funde com a defesa de uma suposta mainstream Harry Gordon Johnson nasceu em- sobre a qual me apoio não se con sistema de validação institucional acadêmico. 1923 em Toronto, Ontario, e desde- - intelectual – i.e., o muito cedo esteve2 imerso no am sensibilidade canadenseethos ulterior, nati- biente acadêmico. Foi um pensa tampouco com a afirmação da exis- dor prolífico, tendo publicado mais tência de algo como um Por outro lado – e é aqui se localiza de quinhentos artigos e quarenta vo. Em oposição a tais leituras, pre minha hipótese – entendo que a livros, além de ter se dedicado seusfiro enxergar principais a tradiçãomacroeconomistas intelectual ‘nãooriginalidade identidade’ de com tais o autoresmainstream em extensivamente à participação3 em –canadense como uma – decorrênciaaí incluindo dedois con de- muito se atrela a momentos de eventos internacionais. - norte-americano (ou britânico). Sua rede de interlocutores diretos- dições materiais, econômicas, po Hipotetizo aqui que pesquisadores e indiretos foi vastíssima. Durante líticas, estruturantes e operantes canadenses de relevo conseguiram seu primeiro mestrado, em Cam junho de 2020 38 temas de economia aplicada temas de economia aplicada 39 - - duplo compromisso – o comércio bridge, interagiu com Keynes e seu4 sua trajetória acadêmica economia por mone um- conomia cujas coordenadas essen círculo próximo (Richard Kahn, Ni- ciais deitam raízes no contexto da cholas Kaldor, Joan Robinson etc.). internacional e a Grande Depressão dos anos 1930 QuandoLá, foi supervisionado de seu retorno aos pelo Estados eco tária (WATSON, 2005). - (economias fechadas, câmbio fixo, nomista marxista Maurice Dobb. padrão-ouro, pressão deflacionária - Se deslocarmos nosso foco analíti e centralidade da manutenção do Unidos, para a realização de suas seco parasitua além numa do espécie nível meramente de ponto pleno emprego) para uma segunda- pesquisas de mestrado e douto individual, veremos que Johnson grande fase do campo, preocupada- rado em Harvard (1948-1958), foi - com nascentes problemas da eco orientado por Alvin Hansen, um médio, operando como um vaso nomia global, sobretudo no perío- dos primeiros difusores de Keynes comunicante entre diversas figu do pós-1973 (economias abertas, na América. Lá realizou também o ras do subcampo de estudos em câmbio flutuante, pressão inflacio- seminário de Joseph Schumpeter. comércio internacional em um- nária, colapso da convertibilidade Dividiu seu tempo entre a London período particularmente fértil de- dólar-ouro e centralidade no con School of Economics (1966-1974) debates na área. Pensar suas con trole inflacionário). - e o Departamento de Economia tribuições exige firmar uma crono de Chicago (1959-1977), onde foi logia queA se Balança estende, de grosso Pagamentos modo, É interessantíssimo que Harry Jo colega de Milton Friedman, Don de 1951 – ano de publicação do hnson figure como um verdadeiro Patinkin e George Stigler. Por fim, seminal - fiel da balança nessa narrativa. Em- foi professor de figuras maiores da- caçãopelo britânico de Economia James MeadeInternacional (Nobel, nesiano1959, o jovem Bastasto’ economista – ingressou – taxado na Macroeconomia contemporânea,- 1977) – até 1968, quando da publi por Joan Robinson como um ‘Key- chcomo e Jagdish David Bhagwati. Laidler, Richard Lip 5 - sey, Michael Mussa, Rudi Dornbus por Robert Mundell (Nobel, 1999). troUniversidade do chamado de grupoChicago minoritário para ocu - James Tobin (Nobel, 1981) propõe par uma posição keynesiana, den batizar esse período (o terceiro Há um número não pequeno de ver quarto de Século XX, 1950-1975)- do Departamento (BOYER, 2011, betes de dicionários especializados- justamente de a “Era Johnson” da p. 4). Por outro lado, seu crescente e de comentários sobre sua vida Macroeconomia, indicando a re interesse pelo papel da moeda na e vasta obra – muitos destes pro levância e a centralidade do autor dinâmica macroeconômica acabou- duzidos justamente pelos alunos e (Cf. MOGGRIDGE, 2012). netarista.por torná-lo – ao menos diante da colegas acima mencionados. Este- visão de Nicholas Kaldor – um mo material auxilia-nos a penetrar na Os desafios da Macroeconomia da poucosespessa temas obra tenhamde Johnson. escapado Apren do Era Johnson e as questões por ele- - demos, assim, que embora “muito levantadas e/ou problematizadas No intuito, assim, de decupar o - no período são, de fato, pratica- quanto possível a elevada (e, con campo de suas reflexões” (CAREY, mente justapostas. Entender o venhamos, pouco produtiva) carga- 2013, p. 289), foi no comércio in momento envolve matizar a encru ideológica usualmente atribuída- ternacional, na macroeconomia- zilhada fundamental que marca o- aos termos keynesiano e moneta monetária e nos estudos (teóricos apogeu do paradigma keynesiano, rista, pareceu-me mais interessan e empíricos) de balanças de paga bem como o advento da contrar te percorrer as pormenorizadas mento que o canadense mais se primeirarevolução grande monetarista. fase da Trata-seMacroe- reconstruções da obra de Johnson dedicou. É acertada, nesse sentido, de entender a crucial inflexão da empreendidas por Laidler (1984), a afirmação de que Johnson pautou Boyer (2011) e Carey (2013). Tais junho de 2020 40 temas de economia aplicada temas de economia aplicada 41 - da Grande Depressão da década de trabalhosPor convergem uma Teoria na Geral identi da - meiono conceito da reação Kahn-Keynesiano em cadeia opera do- 1930 como uma questão de colapso Balançaficação dede Pagamentosconsenso na avaliação multiplicador, ganhando corpo por- monetário internacional ‘completa de que - (JOHNSON, mente reconciliável com a tradição cionalizada pela tríade (a) multi 1958) marca o lance inicial de sua neoclássica ortodoxa da teoria mo plicador – (b) propensão marginal netária’ (Johnson e Johnson, 1978, jornada de desfiliação, uma vez já ao consumo – (c) determinaçãorounds] deda p. 208). Johnson acreditava que aí se identifica uma incongruência gastotaxa de [spending defasagemidem temporal entre constitutiva entre a modelagem Keynes traiu a profissão assumindo as sucessivas fases [ keynesiana e o trato da questão uma economia nacional fechada em ] ( , p.5). Polak internacional. No referido artigo, seus modelos, [uma assunção que indica que os herdeiros de Keynes – JLM] essencialmente descartou a propõe ele: idem ibidem (ele inclusive) centraram esforços possibilidade de tal reconciliação no aprimoramento e refino de cada [...] uma distinção nas abordagens ( , ). - um dos três elos da cadeia acima de elasticidade e absorção em um - mencionada. O ponto fundamental,- contexto internacional de dinhei - contudo, é que tais adições pouco- ro. Ele [Johnson – JLM] reforçou a A grande questão que esses diver ou nada alteraram o cerne da me ideia de uma abordagem monetária as mudanças na oferta de moeda sos comentaristas se colocam é en cânica de transmissões, materiali quando afirmou com firmeza que doméstica ocorriam tanto por mu- tender até que ponto o texto almeja zada essencialmente pelo lado real danças no crédito interno quanto ser (a) um tensionamento da teoria- da economia. O que Johnson propõe por déficits e superávits na balança keynesiana (isto é, a identificação- é, contudo, enfrentar a questão por de pagamentos - de uma limitação passível de su um viés completamente distinto:
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