Agriculture AGRICULTURE | GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS NOMURA INTERNATIONAL PLC Richard Ferguson +44 207 521 1623
[email protected] ANCHOR REPORT A revolution of sorts.. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 311-314. gl Contents Anchor themes 1 Countries section 41 Argentinean agriculture 41 Brazilian agriculture 65 Chinese agriculture 93 Kazakhstan agriculture 127 Russian agriculture 145 Ukrainian agriculture 173 Company pages - an introduction 201 Black Earth Farming 205 Razgulay 213 Astarta 227 Kernel 241 MCB 251 Brasilagro 263 Cosan 273 SLC Agricola 287 Cresud 299 Disclosures 311 Nomura 27 October 2008 blank Nomura 27 October 2008 Agriculture AGRICULTURE | GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS NOMURA INTERNATIONAL PLC Richard Ferguson +44 (0) 20 7521 1623
[email protected] Our view We are witnessing the third great subcontracting wave of the modern era: twenty years ago, manufacturing headed to China. A decade back, IT services shifted to India. Now we are witnessing the shift of agriculture from high-cost, inefficient producers to low-cost producers such as Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The latest great industrialisation process is underway. Anchor themes The structure of the industry will change dramatically: farms will get much bigger and more industrial, the major trading houses will face considerable challenges from new companies, some of which don’t even exist yet. Economic distortions and political interference will remain at the root of the industry’s problems. A free market with transparent pricing, enforceable property rights and liberalised trade would solve just about very agricultural problem under the sun. Politicians will fight it but it will likely prevail.