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Michael Lebby President and CEO OIDA

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Michael Lebby President and CEO OIDA “A sneak preview of a few grand photonics challenges” Michael Lebby President and CEO OIDA OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Overview Optomism and excitement… ¾ How far we’ve traveled; where we’re going ¾ The next 10yrs for optoelectronics: market trends Grand challenges defined…remember these takeaways… ¾ Terabit Photonics ¾ Mobile Photonics ¾ Plastic Photonics ¾ Green Photonics Summary Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Your assignment: remember 4 phrases We are great at conceptual ideas… OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Dick Tracy cartoon character 1946 – two-way wrist radio 1964 – wrist TV Michael Lebby ([email protected]) And in 2066…will this be implanted? Advanced phone watch Prototype: does this mean the wrist is back? Source: LG, engadget Michael Lebby ([email protected]) CES ‘08 In 10 years from now…we have to imagine how will we live our lives? OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association We’ll need to anticipate future lifestyle needs… Aging population in developed countries ¾ Medical needs ¾ Assisted living issues Energy ¾ From hydrocarbon-based to hydrogen-based ¾ Distribution Data explosion and mobility ¾ Need knowledge – not just data – anywhere anytime ¾ Need to work anywhere, anytime Water ¾ Potable ¾ Agricultural Food ¾ Quantity ¾ Quality (spoilage, nutrition) ¾ Safety Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Green, healthy and knowledgeable Once we anticipate future lifestyle needs, we then have to see if future technology and products can support those needs… OIDA:Æ Interesting Optoelectronics Industrygrand Development challenges… Association In a decade… our communicator will be part of our life… Camera flash Flash/signal light Telco Data Cable Laptop Storage Networks Tablet FTTP Pocket Chip-to-chip Desktop Peripherals Print Communication Store Virtual Keyboards GPS Computer TV Camera/Camcorder DVD Highest bandwidth to LED/Lighting human brain Consumer Bio/Medical Cell phone Sources: OIDA, Philips, RIM, Digital Optics, Sony Ericsson, HP, Siemens, Apple, OIDA members Electronics Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Photonics will support our lifestyle Personal information medic… Tricorder (web definition) ¾ “A scanning device used for Medical, Geological, Biological, Radiological, Technological, Positronic, Neurological, and many other types of scans. hand held, portable, and accurate.” Triquarter (web definition) ¾ “A Triquarter used for medical purpose. It has attached to it a cellular scanner and has the ability to scan for injuries, internal bleeding, organ damage and status, biological data, vitals, chemistry data, microscopic scans, neural activity.” Medical data management/access & mobility Sources: Paramount, www.angelfire.com Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Baby boomers age…increased need Next decade in Photonics OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association OIDA vs OITDA OE markets Medical Care / Welfare Prospects of OE World Market (billion USD) Environment / Sensing OIDA 2007-2018 CAGR 6.8% Optical (Solar) Energy 968 1000 Processing 40.9 Input & Output AAGR=12.1% 73.6 800 Display / Lighting 65.5 OITDA 2007-2015 CAGR 10.6% Optical Memory 72.7 Info-Communications 544 139.1 600 21.8 AAGR=10.9% 44.5 18.2 275.5 400 6.4 39.1 18.2 106.4 264 2.7 200 14.5 176.4 134.5 68.2 OIDA (USA) vs OITDA (Japan) 10year forecast for global enabled and 84.5 94.5 167.3 50.9 0 45.5 component optoelectronics 200213.6 2010 2015 1400 1200 1000 800 OITDA 10yr forecast OIDA Enabled + Components 600 $ Billions $ 400 200 Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review Sources: OIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Both forecast >> $1T OE enabled business Photonics enabled products & systems In 2007 mkt slowing, and will continue to slow to ~2010 Global enabled optoelectronics decadal forecast (products/systems) 700 600 500 Dog-leg Æ slowing Consumer display/TV Environmental/Sensing 400 Medical care/Welfare Communications Display/TV Computing/Processing 300 Transportation $ Billions$ Solar Defense 200 Computing 100 Solar Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Big 3 grow to ~$500B by 2018 Global photonics components market Growing from $345B in 2007 to $608B in 2018 ¾ FPD big driver ÆCAGR 5.5%; SSL still best growth CAGR 49% Global optoelectronics components market and decadal forecast 700 600 Lighting 500 Solid state lighting 400 Optical lens and laser Optical fiber comm Optical storage Optical I/O devices 300 $ Billions $ Flat panel displays Optical components 200 FPD 100 Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) SSL growing to ~$40B in 2018 Overall bandwidth drivers are strong… OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Video on Demand (VOD) + IPTV is the biggest change in TV since color How many of us see going back to Black & White TV? Today’s change to High Definition TV resolutions is minor compared to TV’s change to interactivity via Personal Video Recorders, Interactive TV & VOD Source: Cisco Michael Lebby ([email protected]) is this the killer app…? Filling the pipes with data… Triple / Quad play services ¾ HDTV, high speed internet, VoIP and wireless Content on-demand ¾ YouTube.com ¾ Nico Nico Douga (Japan YouTube) ¾ iTunes ¾ Slingbox (3x bandwidth) Migration of Mobile Carriers to 3G ¾ Mobile TV New Content Service Providers ¾ Google, Yahoo, Virgin, MSN…. Sources: Nico nico douga, google, skype, microsoft, youtube, JDSU Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Optical networks must be able to cope Traffic crossing the AT&T network Source: K. Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) We’re using more bandwidth… Japanese fiber optics explodes Rise of FTTx in 2007 is significant (approaching ADSL) Source: MIC Japan Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Best example of FTTx today DSL is beingFTTx used worldwide progress for broadband in Asia strong Fiber based systems growing quickly (Japan/Korea/Denmark) 35 30 25 20 OECD Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by tec 15 10 5 0 Source: OECD Denmark Netherlands Iceland Korea Switzerland DSL Norway Finland hnology, Dec. Sweden Cable Canada Belgium 2006 United Kingdom Luxembourg DSL dominant; fiber growing in Asia Fibre/LAN France Japan United States Australia Austria Other Germany Spain Italy OECD ave ra New Zealand Portugal g Ireland e Hungary Czech Republic Poland Slovak Republic Greece Michael Lebby ([email protected])Turkey Mexico 100Gbps and beyond… Confidence: ¾ We will fill up the bandwidth just like we fill-up disk space and memory… Source: Y2U.co.uk, Ciena Michael Lebby ([email protected]) It’s fasten your seat-belt time… Terabit Photonics… OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association On the path to 1000G…(Terabit) 10 T 1 T 100 G 10 G Commercial transport systems 1 G DM (bit rate/channel) DW 100 M 1.7G 2.5G 10G 40G 45M 1000G 10 M 155 ATM FDDI 1 M 10BASE-T 10GbE 4M Token GbE 100BASE-T 100 k 16M Token StarLAN Source: Telcordia, OIDA DCP om Datac rates 1T node represents a new paradigm Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Photonic backbone across USA Sources: Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Upgrades to 40G are taking place IP traffic & DWDM system trends DWDM needs 40G now to keep pace with IP growth!!! 100G will likely be needed before 2010 2000 2005 2010 2008 DWDM Capacity (10G) IP Traffic Growth DWDM Capacity (40G) Sources: Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) 40G demand today Æ 100G soon! Telephone subscribers in USA Landline supported by broadband at home Wireless expected to >400m subscribers by 2017 Telephone subscribers in the US (M) 450 Wireless 400 surpassed 350 4G… landline in 2004 300 250 Landline M Wireless 200 150 Internet traffic 100 surpassed voice 50 0 traffic in 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, TIA,FCC, CTIA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Wireless becoming de facto Mobile Photonics… OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association Online video and ‘licensed’ music downloads Surpassing $25B in next decade Online video game and licenced music downloads in the US ($B) 30 …Advertising during 2017 music downloads $25B25 20 Licensed music downloads 15 $B Online video games Music downloads become 10 ‘free’ again: Qtrax (2008) 2007 5 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: TIA, OIDA, OIDA members, Qtrax Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Subscriber lifestyle/model will change… Evolving human behavior Individual & group sharing of pictures/videos from phones & digital cameras is now commonplace ¾ Growth of mobile phone video subscriptions: – ABI forecasts 514M subscribers to mobile TV services by 2011 up from 6.4M in 2005* – In US, 4M subscribers expected in 2007 up from 1.5M in 2006 (where advertising will help fuel growth) – Most services expected to be ~$10 month* Cell Phone/PDA Game Playing 360 Platforms that Support Gaming (Heads of Households) PSP <1 35% NDS 4 30% Gamecube 4 25% Xbox 11 20% GBA 14 15% PS2 32 10% Cell* 33 5% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Millions of Units 0% 2002 2006 Sources: OIDA, TI, ABI research (2006), NPD, Entertainment Software Association (2006)
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