Michael Lebby President and CEO OIDA

“A sneak preview of a few grand photonics challenges”

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Overview

Optomism and excitement… ¾ How far we’ve traveled; where we’re going ¾ The next 10yrs for optoelectronics: market trends Grand challenges defined…remember these takeaways… ¾ Terabit Photonics ¾ Mobile Photonics ¾ Plastic Photonics ¾ Green Photonics Summary

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Your assignment: remember 4 phrases We are great at conceptual ideas…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Dick Tracy cartoon character

1946 – two-way wrist radio 1964 – wrist TV

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) And in 2066…will this be implanted? Advanced phone watch

Prototype: does this mean the wrist is back?

Source: LG, engadget

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) CES ‘08 In 10 years from now…we have to imagine how will we live our lives?

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association We’ll need to anticipate future lifestyle needs… Aging population in developed countries ¾ Medical needs ¾ Assisted living issues Energy ¾ From hydrocarbon-based to hydrogen-based ¾ Distribution Data explosion and mobility ¾ Need knowledge – not just data – anywhere anytime ¾ Need to work anywhere, anytime Water ¾ Potable ¾ Agricultural Food ¾ Quantity ¾ Quality (spoilage, nutrition) ¾ Safety

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Green, healthy and knowledgeable Once we anticipate future lifestyle needs, we then have to see if future technology and products can support those needs…

OIDA:Æ Interesting Optoelectronics Industrygrand Development challenges… Association In a decade… our communicator will be part of our life…

Camera flash Flash/signal light

Telco Data Cable Laptop Storage Networks Tablet FTTP Pocket Chip-to-chip Desktop Peripherals Print Communication Store Virtual Keyboards GPS

Computer TV Camera/Camcorder DVD Highest bandwidth to LED/Lighting human brain Consumer Bio/Medical Cell phone Sources: OIDA, Philips, RIM, Digital Optics, Sony Ericsson, HP, Siemens, Apple, OIDA members Electronics

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Photonics will support our lifestyle Personal information medic…

Tricorder (web definition) ¾ “A scanning device used for Medical, Geological, Biological, Radiological, Technological, Positronic, Neurological, and many other types of scans. hand held, portable, and accurate.”

Triquarter (web definition) ¾ “A Triquarter used for medical purpose. It has attached to it a cellular scanner and has the ability to scan for injuries, internal bleeding, organ damage and status, biological data, vitals, chemistry data, microscopic scans, neural activity.”

Medical data management/access & mobility

Sources: Paramount, www.angelfire.com

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Baby boomers age…increased need Next decade in Photonics

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association OIDA vs OITDA OE markets

Medical Care / Welfare Prospects of OE World Market (billion USD) Environment / Sensing OIDA 2007-2018 CAGR 6.8% Optical (Solar) Energy 968 1000 Processing 40.9 Input & Output AAGR=12.1% 73.6 800 Display / Lighting 65.5 OITDA 2007-2015 CAGR 10.6% Optical Memory 72.7 Info-Communications 544 139.1 600 21.8 AAGR=10.9% 44.5 18.2 275.5 400 6.4 39.1 18.2 106.4 264 2.7 200 14.5 176.4 134.5 68.2 OIDA (USA) vs OITDA (Japan) 10year forecast for global enabled and 84.5 94.5 167.3 50.9 0 45.5 component optoelectronics 200213.6 2010 2015

1400

1200

1000

800 OITDA 10yr forecast OIDA Enabled + Components 600 $ Billions $

400

200 Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review

Sources: OIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Both forecast >> $1T OE enabled business Photonics enabled products & systems

In 2007 mkt slowing, and will continue to slow to ~2010

Global enabled optoelectronics decadal forecast (products/systems)

700

600

500

Dog-leg Æ slowing Consumer display/TV Environmental/Sensing 400 Medical care/Welfare Communications Display/TV Computing/Processing 300 Transportation

$ Billions$ Solar Defense 200 Computing 100 Solar Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Big 3 grow to ~$500B by 2018 Global photonics components market

Growing from $345B in 2007 to $608B in 2018 ¾ FPD big driver ÆCAGR 5.5%; SSL still best growth CAGR 49%

Global optoelectronics components market and decadal forecast

700

600 Lighting

500

Solid state lighting 400 Optical lens and laser Optical fiber comm Optical storage Optical I/O devices 300

$ Billions $ Flat panel displays Optical components

200

FPD 100 Initial draft forecast: 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Awaiting peer review

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, IOA members, PIDA, OITDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) SSL growing to ~$40B in 2018 Overall bandwidth drivers are strong…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Video on Demand (VOD) + IPTV is the biggest change in TV since color

How many of us see going back to Black & White TV? Today’s change to High Definition TV resolutions is minor compared to TV’s change to interactivity via Personal Video Recorders, Interactive TV & VOD Source: Cisco Michael Lebby ([email protected]) is this the killer app…? Filling the pipes with data…

Triple / Quad play services ¾ HDTV, high speed internet, VoIP and wireless Content on-demand ¾ YouTube.com ¾ Nico Nico Douga (Japan YouTube) ¾ iTunes ¾ Slingbox (3x bandwidth) Migration of Mobile Carriers to 3G ¾ Mobile TV New Content Service Providers ¾ Google, Yahoo, Virgin, MSN….

Sources: Nico nico douga, google, skype, microsoft, youtube, JDSU Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Optical networks must be able to cope Traffic crossing the AT&T network

Source: K. Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) We’re using more bandwidth… Japanese fiber optics explodes

Rise of FTTx in 2007 is significant (approaching ADSL)

Source: MIC Japan

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Best example of FTTx today FTTx progress in Asia strong

DSL is being used worldwide for broadband Fiber based systems growing quickly (Japan/Korea/Denmark)

OECD Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology, Dec. 2006 35 DSL Cable Fibre/LAN Other 30

20 OECD ave rage 15

rk y d d c a ay al ry ce ico nds ium nce pan It an lan blic la orea g gdom ourg a a tralia pain u ee ex K orw anada n b J S re oland enm Iceland FinlandwedenC Bel Fr us Austria I unga P Gr TurkeyM D her N S A Zeal Portugal H Rep et d Ki xem Germany witzerland e ited States ch Republi N S t Lu n ew e ni U N z lovak U C S

Source: OECD

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) DSL dominant; fiber growing in Asia 100Gbps and beyond…

Confidence: ¾ We will fill up the bandwidth just like we fill-up disk space and memory…

Source: Y2U.co.uk, Ciena Michael Lebby ([email protected]) It’s fasten your seat-belt time… Terabit Photonics…

OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association On the path to 1000G…(Terabit)

10 T

1 T M 1000G l D cia W er s D 100 G m tem 40G om ys ) C rt s nel 10G spo an 10 G an /ch 10GbE tr ate 2.5G it r 1.7G 1 G (b 155 ATM GbE FDDI 100 M 45M 100BASE-T 10BASE-T m 16M Token co 10 M 4M Token ta a es D at 1 M StarLAN r DCP 100 k

Source: Telcordia, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) 1T node represents a new paradigm Photonic backbone across USA

Sources: Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Upgrades to 40G are taking place IP traffic & DWDM system trends

DWDM needs 40G now to keep pace with IP growth!!!

100G will likely be needed before 2010

2000 2005 2010 2008

DWDM Capacity (10G) IP Traffic Growth DWDM Capacity (40G) Sources: Cambron, AT&T Labs Michael Lebby ([email protected]) 40G demand today Æ 100G soon! Telephone subscribers in USA

Landline supported by broadband at home Wireless expected to >400m subscribers by 2017

Telephone subscribers in the US (M)

450

Wireless 400

surpassed 350 4G… landline in 2004 300

250 Landline

M Wireless 200

150

Internet traffic 100 surpassed voice 50

0 traffic in 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sources: OIDA, OIDA members, TIA,FCC, CTIA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Wireless becoming de facto Mobile Photonics…

OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association Online video and ‘licensed’ music downloads

Surpassing $25B in next decade

Online video game and licenced music downloads in the US ($B)

30 …Advertising during 2017 music downloads $25B25

Licensed music downloads 15

$B Online video games

Music downloads become 10 ‘free’ again: Qtrax (2008) 2007

5 2000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sources: TIA, OIDA, OIDA members, Qtrax Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Subscriber lifestyle/model will change… Evolving human behavior

Individual & group sharing of pictures/videos from phones & digital cameras is now commonplace ¾ Growth of mobile phone video subscriptions: – ABI forecasts 514M subscribers to mobile TV services by 2011 up from 6.4M in 2005* – In US, 4M subscribers expected in 2007 up from 1.5M in 2006 (where advertising will help fuel growth) – Most services expected to be ~$10 month* Cell Phone/PDA Game Playing 360 Platforms that Support Gaming (Heads of Households) PSP <1 35% NDS 4 30% Gamecube 4 25% Xbox 11 20% GBA 14 15% PS2 32 10% Cell* 33 5% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Millions of Units 0% 2002 2006 Sources: OIDA, TI, ABI research (2006), NPD, Entertainment Software Association (2006)

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Our mobile ‘lifestyle’ will drive displays Content keeps expanding…

Rampant Growth – Free Content Solid Growth - Content for Purchase ¾ YouTube: >100M videos viewed per day ¾ First Music Videos, TV shows…now movies ¾ >65000 videos uploaded every 24 hours ¾ Studios aligning with content delivery ¾ As of July ‘06, 20M unique visitors/month vehicles

Video Content Expansion Apple Portable Video Growth 14000 250 YouTube 12000 TV Shows-iTunes Yahoo 200 Movies-iTunes 10000 Google

8000 150

6000 100 4000 50

2000 Number of Selections Total Unique ('000s) Visitors 0 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2005 2006 2005 2006 Sources: OIDA, TI, Wikipedia, Mashable social networking 2.0; P Cashmere (2006), Yahoo news (N Finn 2006)

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Drivers for the ‘mobile living room’ Mobility keeps on increasing…

“Display Challenged” Device Growth Mobile Phones-TV Capable 1,400,000 200,000 Digital Camcorder 1,258,442 Handheld Video Game Player 180,000 1,200,000 Digital Still Camera MP3 Player 1,083,603 160,000 Camera Phones 1,000,000 Total 937,863 140,000

813,260 120,000 800,000 687,090 100,000 Units ('000s) Units Units ('000s) Units 600,000 567,689 80,000

400,000 60,000 40,000 200,000 20,000

0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sources: OIDA, TI, iSupply

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Displays become major driver & challenge Media-rich communicators…

Early adopter user profiles (wrt iPhones) ¾ 51% have watched a YouTube video ¾ 46% have watched a music video ¾ 34% have watched the news GUI (graphical user interface) is popular Television is taking off (CTIA April 2008) ¾ Mobility is key

¾ Younger generation concept of – “Personal Space” – Must have a display and audio…

Sources: AT&T, Verizon Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Vehicles for content…medical next wave Photonics is enabling the wireless revolution…

displays,OIDA: OptoelectronicsHBLEDs, OLEDs,Industry Development lasers, Association cameras Form-fit-function: pack of cards

Products today all fit into most hand shapes/sizes Pack of cards has product dimensions that have worked for centuries… Next generation PDAs, blackberries, iPhones will work within these design constraints

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Mobile, light, convenient… High photonics content wireless devices

Photonics allows converged products with high functionality ¾ 5.0 mega-pixel main camera with auto focus and macro mode ¾ Video clips, LED flash, WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS and more!

Front View Slider Extended Back View – Main Camera

Wireless Device (Nokia N95) with Extensive Optoelectronics Content Source: Nokia

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Photonics enabled converged solutions Wireless connectivity

Sharing your experience in real time! ¾ Uploading digital content to PC & mass storage systems ¾ Download music and photos, internet radio

Consumer Digital Camera (Nikon COOLPIX S7c) with Wi-Fi Wireless Connectivity Source: Nikon

Portable Media Player (Sandisk Sansa Connect) with Wi-Fi Wireless Connectivity Source: Sandisk

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Phenomenon Æ sharing experiences Global wireless subscriber trends

Asia is big growth opportunity (>2B subscribers in 2017) ¾ Wireless penetration >100% in Western Europe, 88% all Europe (2006)

5000 Asia/Pacific 4500 Latin America 4000 Middle East/Africa 3500 Europe 3000 Canada 2500 US 2000 1500 1000 500

WirelessWireless Subscribers Subscribers (Millions) (Millions) 0 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Forecast Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Growth, 2001-2017 Sources: TIA, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Asia becoming dominant in wireless Camera communicators will be key

Over 41% phones with camera in 2006 ¾ By 2010, over 500M camera phones RIM blackberry popular without camera (Gvt use)

100 3 Mpixel 90 and Up 80 2 Mpixel 70 1.3 Mpixel 60 VGA 50 40 30 20 10 PercentPercent of of Unit Unit Shipments Shipments 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Trend in Camera Phone Resolution Sources: IC Insights, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) DSC will become the platform… Global demand for low cost handsets

Highest growth in developing markets Indian and China forecast >1.5B subscribers by 2017

3000 Other Asia/ Pac 2500 Japan Indonesia 2000 India 1500 China

1000

500

WirelessWireless Subscribers Subscribers (Millions) (Millions) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Growth of Four Largest Wireless Service Markets by Subscriber in Asia Sources: TIA, OIDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Asia will drive new trends in wireless Low cost mobile handsets

E-ink (electronic paper) display

Low Cost Mobile Handset Incorporating an Electrophoretic (E-ink Electronic Paper) Display Source: Motorola Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Drive for low cost will continue strongly Global wireless displays by technology

OLED and EP take hold during later part of decade

20 LCD 18 OLED 16 Electronic 14 Paper (EP) 12 10 8 6

RevenueRevenue ($Billions) ($Billions) 4 2 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Forecast Revenue for Wireless Device Display Market by Technology, 2004-2007 Sources: OIDA, Display Search, iSuppli

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) LCD (incumbent) will slowly allow entrants Influential product application trends

Portable media players (PMPs) ¾ Wireless connectivity key for product success ¾ Double sided phones, AMOLEDs jazz up the products

The Archos 605 PMP with Wi-Fi Connectivity and the iRiver Clix with 2.2 inch AMOLED Display Sources: Archos, iRiver

The Samsung Upstage Mobile Phone with Dual Displays Source: Samsung

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Displays are jazzing product designs High resolution displays offer design freedom

Combination of Advanced Technologies, Improved Human Interface, and Industrial Design with Software resulting in dramatic improvements in customer satisfaction? ¾ Gestural input through high resolution display and touchscreen (1/2 VGA 320 by 480 at 160 ppi) ¾ Mode switching display enhances phone and video experiences ¾ 2.0 megapixel camera ¾ Ambient light sensor controls display illumination

Source: Phil Wright, Apple, Cingular Wireless Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Optoelectronics is a key design element in PIDs iPhone hardware BoM cost

Optoelectronics comprise an estimated $45-75 (20-30%) of the total hardware cost ($230-260) of the Apple iPhone The range in optoelectronics cost arises from differing estimates ($33 – 60) for the cost of the display and integrated touch screen.

Source: Phil Wright, ISupply, Display Search Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Optoelectronics is a key cost element in PIDs Wireless enabled handheld games

Expect to see handheld game platforms and low cost mobile phones define the low cost wireless device spectrum

Nintendo DS Lite with Wi-Fi Connectivity and Two 3-inch TFT LCDs Source: Nintendo

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Mobile shared play/content emerging… Camera communicators…that project…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Mobile projection displays

Consumers will find new Fun opportunities to utilize Being able to enhance life at anywhere, anytime, anyplace

Business Holidays Interests

Sources: OIDA, Novalux, TI

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) New lifestyle using laser technology OIDA Projection Technology Roadmap OIDA 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Traditional projection technologies ~15L/lb

400L >4x (increase) ~850L/lb 27 lb 1700L Class: mobile Use: travel in pc case >10x 2 lb Technology: UHP (decrease)

Future projection technologies ~50L/lb 20-50L >4x Class: pocket (increase) Use: wearable Technology: LED, 1 lb ~800L/lb Laser >10x 80-200L (decrease) 0.1 lb Weight (lb) 30 20 10 1 0.5 0.1 Volume (cu-in) 200 100 50 30 25 20 15

Michael Lebby OIDA (2007) Slanted Font: Major industry efforts are required for commercialization

Technology & Components: Commercial Availability in Year Indicated Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Challenge to shrink and be brighter Laser based projection displays

Green doubled laser ¾ Limiter to packaging and display performance ¾ Temporal instability between MEMs scanner and green laser

Sources: OIDA, TI, Motorola, Novalux, Microvision

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Lasers allow brighter, compact solutions Challenge: Green LED and Laser Diodes

UV 60% InxGa1-xN (AlxGa1-x).52In.48P 50% (1)

40% V(λ) eye responsivity 30%

20%

10% External Quantum Efficiency 2 Green LEDs to every 1 red and blue T = 25°C 0% Green emission 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 ¾ LEDs Peak Wavelength (nm) ¾ OLEDs ¾ Doubled lasers Today’s 1W HP-HBLED: green is the problem child Sources: Philips Lumileds, Nichia Chemical Co., IWN 2004, OIDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) It’s a materials problem! Challenges for the display industry…

What exists Æ 2” display in 8oz package What the market desires Æ 20” display in 8oz package

20”

2”

Sources: OIDA, TI, TNS Research in Japan, August 2004

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Projection offers one solution Today’s trends for product designs

Form factors similar to mobile phone/PDA Mobile Phone

Digital Camera

Video IPOD

Sources: OIDA, TI, Motorola, Zeiss, Apple

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Brute force integration Æ not convergence Handset projectors

CTIA Las Vegas (April 2008) Æ hot topic

Embedded Microprojector and Handset Prototype Source: Texas Instruments

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Mobile sharing data and video Tactile feedback?

Fatigue WPM Error % Unique input mediums Input Device 5=Highest (Std Dev) (Std Dev) using compact photonics (Std Dev) Graffiti 14.0 (6.1) 13.6 (10.8) 1.4 (1.3) Blackberry comparison Thumb Keyboard 27.6 (4.8) 2.2 (1.8) 1.6 (0.7) ¾ Tactile keys Mech. Keyboard 64.8 (17.3) 1.8 (0.9) 1.2 (0.8) Canesta Keyboard 46.9 (9.8) 3.7 (2.4) 0.7 (0.6)

Usability Test Results for the Canesta/Cellulon Keyboard Sources: Helena Roeber, John Bacus, Carlo Tomasi, Canesta, Inc.

Virtual Keyboard Concept for Wireless Handset Source: Virtual Devices, Inc.

Virtual Keyboard with Bluetooth Connectivity for Wireless Handset Source: Cellulon, Inc. Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Can we be trained for non-tactile? Novel data input devices

Entering data to wireless handsets will evolve quickly over next decade

Optoelectronically-Enabled Handwriting Input Device for Delivering Text and Drawings to Wireless Handset Source: CandleDragon, Inc.

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Writing and speaking Æ important Gestural input and navigation

Still in concept stage ¾ 2 webcams used to acquire stereo image: pair of hands above surface ¾ X,Y, height data on position and gestures used to control application

Optically Virtual Keyboard Concept for Wireless Handset Sources: S. Malik, J. Laszlo, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Advanced user interfaces will evolve Wearing displays

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Micro-displays

Small display – big pictures Similar to looking into a video camera

Source: Kopin Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Younger generation will ignite the trend Would you wear these in 10years?

Happy and healthier lifestyle…I would !

Source: Kopin Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Image or real life: sometimes safer.. Camera function will advance…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Images are data…

Application of images as data ¾ Qode uses camera phone to acquire activated smartcode ¾ Links user directly to adverisers website ¾ Excellent concept for train-plane schedules, security, public info

Camera Phone Acquiring Image of 2 Dimensional Bar Code and Linking Mobile Handset to Advertisers Web Site Source: Neomedia Technologies

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) New ways to connect users to updates Cameras will allow 3D mobility

Auto stereoscopy ¾ No specs (phew!) ¾ Winner?

Auto Stereoscopy Principle and Implementation Source: SeeReal Technologies Samsung mobile (Aug’07) ¾ Clam-shell design ¾ Had to fight GenY’rs to see it!

Prototype Wireless Handset with Auto Stereoscopic 3D Display Source: Ocuity Ltd, Photo Credit: Andrew Woods

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Will this be the new display medium? Plastic Photonics…

OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association OLEDs will be ubiquitous…we now call the segment ‘plastic photonics’

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association OLED trends over next decade

OLEDs expected to grow into huge opportunity ¾ a-Si TFT becoming the silicon (Vs GaAs) of displays ¾ OLEDs are going head-to-head with a-Si TFT (tough battle) Display forecast by material composition to 2016

250,000

200,000 OLED LTPS TFT LCD 150,000 PMLCD a-Si TFT LCD 100,000 Other Plasma CRT 50,000 Revenue ($Millions)

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sources: OIDA, Display Search, ISupply, Displaybank Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Do we know the killer app yet? …in 10 yrs will the panels be glass or flex (or both)?

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Windows @ 10G – (2.7m x 3m)

Source: Corning Michael Lebby ([email protected]) A substrate medium for plastic photonics How large will we go?

3.5G LCD 6G LCD 7-8GLCD 2000 2004 2007

Sources: DisplaySearch. LG.Philips LCD, OIDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Are these windows? Sure look like it… World’s largest display for the minute

The new 150 inch Panasonic TV has a resolution of 4,096x2,160px. Panasonic says the 150 inch Plasma is well suited for cinema and commercial installations

Source: Panasonic

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) CES ’08 – we’ll need bigger living rooms… Displays…

Observation: Wafers Æ Glass Æ Flexible substrates

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association In-line OLED production system

Based on solution processed P-OLED and TFE (thin film encapsulation) technology

In-Line OLED Production System Source: OTB Display

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Tool development is very active today Roll-to-roll OLED manufacturing

ROLLED program in Europe ¾ Goal to develop low cost, volume scale flex technology

Roll-to-Roll Pilot Production Facility for Flexible OLEDs Source: ROLLED

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Challenges: ITO, printing, encapsulation Steel substrates for Flexible OLEDs

4” QVGA (240x320 pixel) AMOLED on a-Si TFT array ¾ Only 150um thick, opaque substrate limits pixel density (100 ppi)

Flexible AMOLED Display on Stainless Steel Substrate Sources: LG.Philips, Universal Display Photo Credit: Phil Wright

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Metal fab is similar to conventional LCD OLEDs in automotive displays

Already significant opportunity for OLEDs ¾ Strong value (low cost, good resolution, contrast ratio, viewing angle, fast response, multiple color choices)

Source: Optrex

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Existing commercial application OLED forecast by market segment

TV revenue surpasses $6B in 2017

14000 Other Automotive 12000 Television 10000 Notebook Monitor 8000 PMP

6000 Mobile Main Mobile Sub 4000 Revenue ($Millions) ($Millions) Revenue Revenue

2000

0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

OLED Display Forecast by Market Segment, 2004-2017 Sources: OIDA, DisplaySearch, iSuppli, Displaybank

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) We don’t include fashion…mistake? OLEDs go head-to- head with LCDs…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Sony OLED TVs at CES 2007

Two prototype models were demonstrated: ¾ 27inch TV with Full HD panel (resolution: 1920×1080) - 3mm in depth ¾ 11inch TV with wide-SVGA panel (resolution: 1024×600) - less than 10mm in depth (at its thinnest point). Sources: Phil Wright, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) OLED vs LCD (incumbent) ? AMOLED TVs

CES 2007, bright colorful, thin, displays attracted much interest

Source: Sony

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Brave new world for OLEDs OLED-based TV’s are coming!

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. of Korea announced plans to sell OLED based TVs in 2008 Toshiba Matsushita Display Technology Co. Ltd. (TMD) in 2009 Sony Corporation’s announced, at CES 2007 in January that they will launch an OLED based TV for sale in Japan late 2007.

Have the giants got it right?

Sources: Phil Wright, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Will OLEDs beat LCDs? Incumbent… OLED TV hits the shelves…CES ‘08

11 inches display, 3mm thick (about the size of three stacked credit cards) Resolution: 940×540 OLED technology can completely turn off pixels when reproducing black, resulting in more outstanding dark scene detail and a contrast ratio of 1,000,000:1 $2500 today’s pricing

Source: Sony (XEL-1 TV)

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Will the gamble pay off? The ‘green’ nature of OLEDs

OLED win outright in video applications ¾ Fraction of full pixel intensity is used

Power Consumption (mW) Usage Scenario AMLCD AMOLED

Typical Web page 226 360

Typical UI page 226 164

Typical still image page 226 164

Video on average 226 31

Power Consumption of 2.0-inch QVGA AMLCD and AMOLED Displays Source: Nokia

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Dark pixels save energy…OLED is better OLED lighting

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association HBLED & OLED lighting fixtures

Designs similar to incandescent (left), fluorescent (right)

Sources: Progress Lighting, BASF, Philips

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Form factors similar to luminaires today Transparent OLED W-OLED

“Day and night window”

Transparent White Light OLED Panel Prototype “The day and night window” Source: Novaled Michael Lebby ([email protected]) This could well be a killer app… Enabled lighting market

Growth of OLED lighting forecast to 16% by 2016 ¾ Main issue will not be spec’s but will be COST!

Ratio of HBLED to OLED in enabled lighting market over next decade

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

OLED 50% HBLED

40% Percentage (%) Percentage 30%

20%

10%

0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) OLED cost structures still too high… Lighting challenges for OLEDs OIDA SSL lighting challenges platform

10000

1000 Goal is to design a lighting technology with sub $100/m2 100 Maximum white lumens Maximum white

1 1 10 100 1000 OIDA: OptoelectronicsCost per Area Industry $ / m2 Development Association Lighting challenges for OLEDs OIDA SSL lighting challenges platform

10000 Cluster of LEDs

1000

100 Maximum white lumens Maximum white

Will this be OLED ? How do you manufacture? 10 SM + Polymer? Glass or plastic substrate? OLED small panels

1 1 10 100 1000 OIDA: OptoelectronicsCost per Area Industry $ / m2 Development Association OLED challenge for lighting is substrate cost !!!

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association OLED technology trends

Commercial OLEDs today Today ¾ Over 97% products are based on “Small Molecule” technology Small Pioneered by KODAK ¾ + High efficiency molecule ¾ + Good lifetime ¾ - Vacuum processing limits substrate size – But is simple though Polymer Pioneered by CDT (now Sumitomo) ¾ + Simple Structure ¾ + Potential for ink jet processing of large substrates ¾ - Lower efficiency, and lifetime Tomorrow Trends… ¾ SM fabrication techniques on polymer substrates SM + ¾ Multi-layer, multiple technologies (SM + Polymer) Polymer

Source: OLED-T, IOA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Mixing of technologies will accelerate Killer application for flex….fashion

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association OLEDs become fashionable

Fashion in photonics

Sources: Groonk.net, Nyxjacket, OIDA, PIDA, General Dynamics, eMagin, Laser Focus World Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Potential very high volume Fashion with organics

Particle sized photo-luminescent pigments with fibres that emits light without electricity. ¾ Textile can be washed and can glow for about half a day

OLEDs in clothing

Sources: Natalia Allen, culturebase.org, eyezotica.com, urbanscreens.org, techiediva.com, jkct, pioneer Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Fashion allows high margins, low life HB LEDs already offer attractive solutions

Fashion using optoelectronics ¾ HBLEDs interwoven into clothing – Wedding dresses – Children’s clothing – Hip dress designs – Evening gowns – Office clothes – Safety wear Photonics festival conference ¾ Taipai, June 2007 ¾ Lite-on fashion show

Source: OIDA, Lite-On Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Shhhh – don’t look for the batteries… Green Photonics…

OIDA: OptoelectronicsImportant Industry takeaway Development ! Association Energy will be important

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Not good!

Why energy matters… Source: IEA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Double 1971 – 2004: trend kills the planet Source: IEA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Non-carbon growth is small Photonics is already ‘green’

Solar energy ¾ PVs Power consumption ¾ Communications hardware ¾ Displays ¾ Solid state lighting Materials processing ¾ Semiconductor, laser machining ¾ Chemical free processing Sensing ¾ Monitoring (environmental, pollution)

Source: Finisar Michael Lebby ([email protected]) We’re running a green photonics forum… Philips Eco-TV

42-inch, 1080p resolution, flat-panel LCD, model 42PFL5603D (due in March, $1,399 MSRP) Able to dim the backlight--by up to five times peak brightness--in response to program material. Dimming the backlight in darker scenes has the dual benefit of saving power and improving black-level performance. Backlight can also be dimmed via a room lighting sensor, so in dark rooms it will use less power. There's also traditional a "power-saving" mode that caps the peak light output. The panel's power consumption dips to an impressive 75 watts. That's a bit more than a standard incandescent light bulb (approx. 30 watts less than the most 42-inch LCDs. Philips also built in a few other non-power- related greenie features, including lead-free materials and only "trace" amounts of mercury

The box is made from recycled material.

Source: Philips Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Green TVs become topical Solar plays a huge role…

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Oil prices sky-rocketing

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Thirteen Year Trend Crude Oil Prices Source: NYMEX

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Deja vu: motivation for solar? Solar surpassing $100B by 2013

120 Others Services Installation 100 Other Components

80 Inverter Module 60

40 Revenue ($Billions) ($Billions) Revenue Revenue 20

0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Solar Sector Revenue and Forecast, 2005-2017 Sources: CLSA, Photon Consulting, OIDA

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Strong growth over decade Global PV shipments

Germany and Japan lead the industry…

Source: Eric Weisoff, Greentechmedia Michael Lebby ([email protected]) USA needs to join the team… Silicon semiconductor usage

Solar usage is expected to surpass 50% in 2007

Silicon Useage by Sector - 2005 Silicon Usage by Sector - 2006E

Electronics Electronics Sector Solar Industry Sector 54% 46% 51% Solar Industry 49%

Sources: CLSA Asia-Pacific Market Estimates Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Supply-limited silicon opens doors… Solar cell material efficiencies

Best research results to-date

Sources: NREL – National Renewable Energy Lab

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Multi-junction concentrators lead OIDA solar roadmap 2007 OIDA Solar cell platform roadmap

$0.10/W $0.20/W $0.50/W Thermodynamic Limit

80 Roadmap development ∞ Junction Limit path

% 60 TH η 4 5-6 Junction Limit $1.00/W

40 Efficiency, Single Junction Limit 3RD 20 Q 5 $3.50/W Thin film Legend today 2ND Actual Data SunPower η 21.5% cell Sharp η 15% cell

0 Shell η 14% cell 0 100 200 300 400 500 Q Sanyo η 19% cell OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Sources: Silex, OIDA, translucent Cost per Area $ / m2 5 BP Solar η 14.2% cell OIDA solar roadmap 2007 OIDA Solar cell platform roadmap

$0.10/W $0.20/W $0.50/W Thermodynamic Limit

80 Roadmap development ∞ Junction Limit path

% 60 TH η 4 5-6 Junction Limit $1.00/W DARPA III-V/II-VI 40 potential Efficiency, Single Junction Limit

3RD 20 Q 5 $3.50/W Thin film Legend today 2ND Actual Data SunPower η 21.5% cell Sharp η 15% cell

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association 4 Grand Challenges…

Terabit Photonics ¾Video will be the killer app to drive bandwidth Mobile Photonics ¾Mobile living room will evolve Plastics Photonics ¾Roll to roll manufacturing with flex Green Photonics ¾Energy efficient, cleaner products

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) ‘Terabit, mobile, plastic and green’ Moral of the story…summary

Imagine our lifestyle in 10yrs ¾Focus on the needs (for the new lifestyle) –Look where the technology roadmaps fall short… –Better idea of where photonics will impact life, health and environment The 4 grand challenges help will enable that lifestyle… ¾Lots of challenging R&D…

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Photonics is key to our lifestyle… End

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Lighting market share forecast

SSL will grow to 32% of lighting market by 2016

Global market share 10yr forecast for lighting

100%

90%

80%

70%

60% SSL devices 50% Incand/Other FL 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Will the G7 ban Incand/Mercury in 5yrs? White HBLED performance

200 Next 2-4yrs

Now 159lm/W

Small‘ LED Lab results 150 Thin film devices ¾ Reduced light from sides 100 Power LED Lab results ¾ Help drive Small LED 100+ lm/W 2006

Power LED 2006 50

Small LED Power LED ~2004 2004 Luminous Efficacy (lm/W) Luminous Efficacy

0 0 2020mA 40350mA 60 80 100 Current density (A/cm2)

Sources: Philips Lumileds, CREE, Nichia, Osram, Tokoyda Gosei, OIDA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Converge: pwr devices >100 lm/W soon… Global HB LED over next decade

HB LED global forecast 2006 to 2017

16000

14000

12000 Other 10000 Illumination Signals 8000 Automotive 6000 Signs/Displays Mobile Apps. 4000 Revenue ($millions) Revenue

2000

7 8 9 1 2 4 5 6 7 0 1 1 00 01 01 1 2006 20 200 2 2010 2 2 2013 20 20 201 20

Sources: OIDA, Strategies unlimited, iSupply, Yole, OIDA members, IOA Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Illumination will be strong for LEDs A solar taxonomy

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Scalability is the key with any technology One view of solar industry cost trends

Economies of solar in Cost/kWh Æfundamental driver Today ~28c/kWhr (Ca) before subsidies (~14c after) ¾ Verses ~11c-34c for retail electricity costs

Global solar industry trends (Cost/Watt) Expect grid

30 parity without Expect grid subsidy around parity with 25 2014-16 subsidy around 2010-12 20

Conventional electricity cost 15 Solar cost (unsubsidized) Solar cost (subsidized)

Cost/Year (c/kWh) Cost/Year 10

5 Assumes conventional energy price +3% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 per year

Source: Morgan Stanley, Street Research Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Issue: Generation vs transmission Thin film solar cell innovations

Challenge to the dominance of silicon by reducing manufacturing costs

Sources: Sharp Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Efficiencies still hover ~10% today Driving new innovations in solar

Printing of CIGS thin films will extend to flexible substrates ¾ Solution coated nano-composite material (ink) ¾ CIGS thin film material deposited by vacuum onto s/steel

Source: Nanosolar

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Printing cells opens new opportunities Inorganic solar cells

Ultra-thin solar cells from colloidal inorganic nanocrystals based on CdSe/CdTe Low-cost power generation, tunable absorption Polymer based manufacturing as semiconductor inks

Source: Ilan Gur, University of California, Berkeley

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) High potential for low cost manf Printing approaches to solar cells

Organic carbon based inks technology Printing process allows continuous roll process ¾ Lower capital investment (no clean room, vacuum, or silicon)

Source: Konarka

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) Capital investment in plant: big driver Led/LCOS engine mobile projection

LED-illuminated projection engine designed for integration into virtually any personal electronic device. Roughly the size of a wireless earpiece and less than half an inch thick, the 3M mobile projection engine delivers brilliant VGA resolution images When deployed in a host platform, such as a mobile phone, 3M’s technology can project a 40-inch or larger image with no- speckle and a high-fill factor that ensures superior image quality. Each engine uses an advanced liquid crystal on silicon (LCOS) electronic imager in conjunction with proprietary 3M optics technology. Available today

Source: 3M

Michael Lebby ([email protected]) CES ‘08