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Potential for Solar Energy on Rooftops in the Municipality of Uppsala

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Potential for Solar Energy on Rooftops in the Municipality of Uppsala Examensarbete 15 hp Juni 2013 Potential for Solar Energy on Rooftops in the Municipality of Uppsala Jasmine Hammam Sara Johansson Hanna Persson Abstract Potential for Solar Energy on Rooftops in the Municipality of Uppsala Jasmine Hammam, Sara Johansson, Hanna Persson Teknisk- naturvetenskaplig fakultet UTH-enheten Uppsala City Council has set up milestones for each decade from year 2020 to 2050 to steadily reduce the greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the municipality of Besöksadress: Uppsala. The Climate Protocol is working on a roadmap with guidelines on how to Ångströmlaboratoriet Lägerhyddsvägen 1 achieve the current climate goals. The roadmap is expected to be finished in year Hus 4, Plan 0 2014, and it is currently being investigated to what extent solar energy could contribute to achieving the climate goals. The purpose of this study is to estimate the Postadress: solar energy potential in the municipality of Uppsala for the years 2020 and 2050 Box 536 751 21 Uppsala based on an assessment of what a prospective utilization of solar energy systems on rooftops could potentially generate. The addressed solar techniques are photovoltaics Telefon: based systems and solar thermal collectors. 018 – 471 30 03 The results indicate that an optimal rooftop area of 5.9 km² is estimated in Uppsala Telefax: municipality by 2020, and 8.8 km² by 2050. The total solar energy potential in the 018 – 471 30 00 municipality is estimated to 1.5 TWh in 2020 and 1.9 TWh in 2050. Thus, approximately half of all the buildings energy consumption in the municipality could Hemsida: potentially be covered by solar energy. http://www.teknat.uu.se/student A sensitivity analysis is carried out to test the results by altering input parameters and components. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the solar energy potential would increase by optimizing roof deployment areas when constructing new buildings and improving the solar efficiency for photovoltaics. The results indicate that solar energy could cover 49 percent of the municipality’s expected energy demand in 2020 and 64 percent in 2050. Handledare: Björn Sigurdson Ämnesgranskare: David Lingfors Examinator: Joakim Widén ISSN: 1650-8319, TVE 13 006 maj Table of contents 1.! Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 9! 1.1! Purpose ........................................................................................................................ 10! 1.2! Terminological clarification ........................................................................................... 10! 1.3! Limitations ..................................................................................................................... 10! 1.4! Report outline ............................................................................................................... 11! 2.! Background ........................................................................................................................ 12! 2.1! Climate goals of Uppsala Municipality .......................................................................... 12! 2.2! Active solar energy systems ......................................................................................... 13! 3.! System view ....................................................................................................................... 14! 3.1! Grid parity ..................................................................................................................... 15! 4.! Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 16! 4.1! Building types and estimated roof surfaces .................................................................. 17! 4.2! Roof angles ................................................................................................................... 18! 4.3! Azimuth angle ............................................................................................................... 19! 4.4! Shading and obstacles on roof areas ........................................................................... 20! 4.5! Solar calculations .......................................................................................................... 21! 4.5.1! Calculating the solar efficiency ............................................................................. 21! 4.5.2! Solar power output from a tilted surface ............................................................... 22! 4.6! Future scenarios ........................................................................................................... 23! 5.! Data ..................................................................................................................................... 24! 5.1! Future constructions in the municipality ........................................................................ 24! 5.2! Cultural and historical values ........................................................................................ 25! 5.3! Estimated number of buildings and ground area .......................................................... 25! 5.3.1! Buildings suitable for solar energy systems ......................................................... 26! 5.4! The energy consumption in the municipality ................................................................. 28! 6.! Sensitivity analysis for 2020 and 2050 ............................................................................ 29! 6.1! Roof angle .................................................................................................................... 29! 6.2! Azimuth angle ............................................................................................................... 29! 6.3! Shading and obstacles ................................................................................................. 29! 6.4! Improved efficiency ....................................................................................................... 30! 6.5! Estimated roof area of new buildings 2020 to 2050 ...................................................... 31! 7.! Results ................................................................................................................................ 32! 7.1! Roof area calculations .................................................................................................. 32! 7.2! Solar energy potential ................................................................................................... 34! 7.3! Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................ 35! 7.4! Comparison of the two scenarios ................................................................................. 36! 8.! Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 37! 3 ! 8.1! Results .......................................................................................................................... 37! 8.2! Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................ 37! 8.3! Critical analysis ............................................................................................................. 37! 8.4! A future outlook ............................................................................................................. 38! 8.5! Further work .................................................................................................................. 40! 9.! Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 41! 10.! References ....................................................................................................................... 42! 10.1! Literature ..................................................................................................................... 42! 10.2! Publications ................................................................................................................ 42! 10.3! Web sites .................................................................................................................... 44! 10.4! Other references ......................................................................................................... 46! Appendix: Solar Energy Potentials ......................................................................................... 47! ! ! 4 ! Occurring Terms and Abbreviations Apartment buildings Buildings with several households (apartments) under the same roof, estimated to 14.55 apartments per building. Azimuth The facilities orientation relative to the south. Directly to the south gives 0 degrees, west 90 degrees and east -90 degrees. Diffuse radiation Particles and clouds scatter the solar radiation to be distributed over the entire hemisphere. Direct radiation See definition for Solar Radiation. GI Global Irradiance, solar radiation on module plane. η Solar cells efficiency rate, measured in percent. NOCT Nominal Operating Cell Temperature, used to determine cell efficiency Module Collection of photovoltaic arrays, also called panels PV Photovoltaic, direct conversion of solar radiation to electricity. Small houses Refers to individual, detached and semi-detached homes such as villas, cottages
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