How New and Assertive Is China's New Assertiveness?
China’s New Assertiveness? How New and Alastair Iain Johnston Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness? In recent years, it has become increasingly common in U.S. media, pundit, and academic circles to describe the diplomacy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as newly or increasingly assertive.1 Some observers have even suggested that this new as- sertiveness reºects a fundamental shift in Chinese diplomacy away from Beijing’s more status quo–oriented behavior of the previous thirty years.2 Many believe that it reºects a conscious decision by the top leadership in the wake of the 2008–09 ªnancial crisis to be much more proactive in challenging U.S. interests in East Asia and, indeed, elsewhere around the world. The new assertiveness meme has “gone viral” in the U.S. media, the blogosphere, and in scholarly work. This article argues, however, that the new assertiveness meme underesti- mates the degree of assertiveness in certain policies in the past, and overes- timates the amount of change in China’s diplomacy in 2010 and after. Much of China’s diplomacy in 2010 fell within the range in foreign policy preferences, diplomatic rhetoric, and foreign policy behavior established in the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras. Moreover, the claims about a new assertiveness typically do not provide a deªnition of assertiveness, are unclear about the causal mech- anisms behind this shift toward assertiveness, and lack comparative rigor that better contextualizes China’s diplomacy in 2010. Why should policymakers and scholars worry about a problematic charac- terization of Chinese foreign policy? Putting aside the intellectual importance of accurately measuring the dependent variable in the study of a major power’s foreign policy, there are two good reasons.
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