2012-Cities-Of-Opportunity.Pdf
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Abu Dhabi Hong Kong Madrid New York Singapore Beijing Istanbul Mexico City Paris Stockholm Berlin Johannesburg Milan San Francisco Sydney Buenos Aires Kuala Lumpur Moscow São Paulo Tokyo Chicago London Mumbai Seoul Toronto Los Angeles Shanghai Cities of Opportunity Cities of Opportunity 2012 analyzes the trajectory of 27 cities, all capitals of finance, commerce, and culture—and through their current performance seeks to open a window on what makes cities function best. This year, we also look ahead to 2025 to project employment, production, and population patterns, as well as “what if” scenarios that prepare for turns in the urban road. Cover image: Brooklyn Bridge and Lower Manhattan, Guillaume Gaudet Photography www.pwc.com ©2012 PwC. All rights reserved. “PwC” and “PwC US” refer to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership, which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. This document is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. www.pfnyc.org ©2012 The Partnership for New York City, Inc. All rights reserved. Looking to the future of 27 cities at the center of the world economy In this fifth edition of Cities of Opportunity, 2.5 percent of the population. By the quarter- with some of this uncertainty, “what if” PwC and the Partnership for New York City century, they will house 19 million more scenarios test the future of our cities under again examine the current social and economic residents, produce 13.7 million additional different conditions. The clouds hold silver performance of the world’s leading cities. We jobs, and generate $3.3 trillion more in GDP linings for some cities in terms of greater also add a future dimension that probes the if population follows UN projections and employment and wealth. But storms roll in for shape of city economies to come. Together, economic progress remains modest. As growth others. The differing “what if” scenarios stress looking at 2012 results and ahead toward occurs, the symbiotic relationship between the need for flexible thinking simply to deal the possibilities in 2025, we seek to provide East and West is likely to continue: Emerging with foreseeable changes, not to mention a realistic framework for thought and action cities will skyrocket in jobs and population, the unexpected turns. beginning with 27 of the world’s most signifi- but developed cities will retain the spending cant cities—on one hand, the engine of the power, as well as the consumer and corporate To flesh out the empirical picture, we spoke modern global economy and on the other, demand, to drive growth. One side will still to a broad scope of leaders on issues from the the heart of much of our shared culture. need the other to move ahead. long range and philosophical to the practical and immediate. This includes E.O. Wilson, the It is precisely because of the importance of Meantime, our analysis shows that each naturalist; Bill Bratton, former New York and cities and the need to deepen knowledge of city represents an economic ecosystem in its Los Angeles head of police; Narayana Murthy, urban issues that we undertake the study. The own right, built around mutually supportive founder of Infosys; Andrew Chan and Peter effort to question and understand where cities economic and social strengths as well as an Chamley, two leaders of the global engineering are and where they are headed benefits all intertwined fabric of jobs—not just the profes- firm Arup, based in Hong Kong and London, of us in a world urbanizing like never before. sionals in bright skyscrapers but all those who respectively; Wim Elfrink, Cisco’s head of This includes the officials and policymakers turn the lights on every morning from retailers Smart + Connected Communities; and David setting the course, businesses invested in city and teachers to nurses and cooks, from crime Miller, former Toronto mayor and World well-being, and the citizens who build their fighters to street cleaners. Maintaining healthy Bank special advisor on urban issues. lives in thousands of city neighborhoods world- balance is a cornerstone of urban resilience. wide, rich or poor, picturesque or prosaic. All in all, we hope to provide insight into Our jobs analysis also reveals surprising an urban world in which all of us are “in it Statistics tell some of the story: Today, our patterns, vulnerabilities, and dependencies, together,” making as strong a case for joint 27 cities account for nearly 8 percent of world as cities journey toward 2025 with more than thought and action among cities as there is gross domestic product (GDP) but only a few clouds on the horizon. To come to grips for self-interest and competition. Yours sincerely, Robert Moritz Kenneth I. Chenault Terry J. Lundgren Chairman and Senior Partner Chairman and CEO Chairman, President and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP American Express Co. Chief Executive Officer Macy’s Inc. Co-chairman Partnership for New York City Co-chairman Partnership for New York City What makes a city tick? “Justice remains the appropriate name for certain social utilities which are vastly more important, and therefore more absolute and imperative, than any others,” John Stuart Mill wrote in Utilitarianism in 1861. He added, “education and opinion, which have so vast a power over human character, should so use that power to establish in the mind of every individual an indissoluble association between his own happiness and the good of the whole.” Many of those we spoke with this year in developing Cities of Opportunity agree. The foundations of healthy cities remain rule of law and safety and security today, as well as strong education to foster those qualities for future generations. Overview The city tomorrow Projecting urban possibilities to 2025 10 19 24 Population in millions 30 12 How the cities rank From butcher to baker to The ants, the man, and Where the jobs are 12 memory-stick maker the city MatureEmerging 2012London moves2025 up, A detailed look at six big or Asian cities improve Projecting urban trends to E.O. Wilson views city life telling employment sectors Beijing 2025 in jobs, production, through the lenses of nature and population and reason 14 22 28 34 The study’s methodology The shape of city The 2025 baseline scenario “What if” technological 9 economies to come 9 Refinements continue on Jobs in business services, unemployment dawns a solid foundation Mutual self-interest unites wholesale and retail, and … in a slow growth, Mumbai developed and developing cities manufacturing anchor the cities urbanized world? And four other scenarios that explore s unexpectedShanghai directions Moscow 6 Tokyo 6 Toronto Chicago 26 24 Berlin Beijing San Francisco Paris 21 Seoul Employment in million 26 15 19 New York 23 3 Istanbul 13 9 London Seoul São Paulo Los Angeles 17 Milan Abu Dhabi Shanghai 2 9 Tokyo 1 4 10 Hong Kong Mexico City 9 Istanbul Mumbai 6 Kuala Lumpur Mexico City Singapore 14 São Paulo Johannesburg 11 Singapore New York 6 Sydney Buenos Aires 16 27 Hong Kong 24 3 3 16 Sydney 23 Buenos Aires We’re quickly coming to an agreement as a nation and as Berlin a world—that we really have to improve education systems. Paris Toronto We need far better methods of teaching. We need better incentives Johannesburg for teachers, and especially to include education in science and Los Angeles Stockholm Milan Madrid technology because we are now entering a techno-scientific world. Chicago San Kuala Lumpur Francisco 0 0 Abu Dhabi 510152025 2 | Cities of Opportunity | PwC Value of output 2003–2011 historical GDP data 2012–2025 GDP projection $1b Abu San Stockholm Milan Kuala Paris Chicago Toronto Buenos AiresMadridBerlin Los Johan- Sydney Singapore Hong London New York Mexico Seoul Moscow São Mumbai Tokyo Istanbul Shanghai Beijing Dhabi* Francisco Lumpur Angeles nesburg Kong City Paulo $222* $230 $163 $141 $48 $153 $161 $151 $51 $94 $78 $184 $47 $160 $132 $98 $114 $244 $77 $73 $58 $54 $16 $104 $58 $108 $42 *GDP driven by the oil economy Source: Oxford Economics, Cities of Opportunity The city today Results for 2012 42 46 51 56 Intellectual capital Booting up holistic Health, safety and security Transportation and innovation sustainability From Aristotle to Bratton and infrastructure Generating the skills that Wim Elfrink discusses to Chan, securing citizens’ A major revision focuses generate growth Cisco’s and his own passage well-being is key on internal mobility to urban India 44 50 52 58 City gateway Technology readiness Bill Bratton transformed The ins and outs, overs and urban law and order unders, of a great city A new indicator measures The competition for digital a city’s global connections advantage continues to intensify … in New York and Los Angeles … can be engineered for efficiency, and explains how to achieve Peter Chamley of Arup explains that fundamental priority on the toughest city streets 46 52 58 For the average person in a Health, safety, and security is the number one requirement for a What we often lack now are developing city, the most city. If you don’t have security, you don’t have health and safety, projects having a champion important factor is safety, health, and all the other pillars that support democracy will weaken, who will get hold of them and security. Efficiency is also including education and the economy. If you have a shaky and make it their sole aim important—[the] ability platform, they are all going to be shaky. to deliver them. to get around efficiently is probably second in importance only to safety.