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Mindanao Energy Plan 2018-2040 Updated.Pdf

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Mindanao Energy Plan 2018-2040 Updated.Pdf For inquiries, please contact: Jesus Cristino P. Posadas Senior Undersecretary Robert B. Uy Assistant Secretary Energy Policy and Planning Bureau Patrick T. Aquino, CESO III Director Carmencita A. Bariso Assistant Director Planning Division Michael O. Sinocruz Chief Contributors Rowena T. Villanueva Jane M. Peralta Desiree Joy C. Solis Rosalinda G. Codillo Francis Richard O. Rabulan Michael S. Leabres Celedonio B. Mendoza, Jr. Noel M. Sernal Dwane Darcy D. Cayonte Rachel Ann C. Quitaneg Daisy D. Cruz MINDANAO ENERGY PLAN 2018 - 2040 Message Acclaimed as the “Land of Promise and Food Basket of the Philippines”, Mindanao has what it takes to be among the most dynamic places in the country. It has vast potential supply of natural resources including energy that could help transform the entire island into a vibrant economy. Spurring Mindanao’s growth and development are its increasing level of economic competitiveness, improvement in vital infrastructure, enhancement of its connectivity, growing number of economic zones, business centers and industrial hubs. The establishment of Development Corridors in the region is also a critical factor. With all these exciting progress for Mindanao, the expansion of the region’s power system is imperative to parallel the demand of economic surge. The Government therefore is called upon to respond through appropriate measures that can complement and sustain development. Towards this end, the Mindanao Energy Plan (MEP) 2018-2040 was formulated to ensure sustainable, stable and secure energy supply in the Mindanao Region. The MEP aims to address the region’s energy supply requirements to meet its higher economic targets as espoused in the Mindanao 2030 and Mindanao Development Corridors. It provides for a long term energy planning that will not only help DOE respond to growing energy needs of Mindanao and to its changing supply-demand dynamics but would also ensure energy security through the optimization of energy resources. The Plan pushes for energy diversification with the formulation of a well-balanced energy mix to help achieve the ultimate goal of having a secured, stable and sustainable energy supply. It simulates varying energy supply and demand scenarios that will be responsive and dynamic to the needs of the region within the planning period and address the potential supply shortfalls and other future challenges. In simulating the energy requirements of Mindanao over the next 20 years, the DOE considered several economic parameters and sectoral targets to include energy savings across all economic sectors, targets for alternative fuels and the promotion, development and utilization of indigenous energy resources to include renewable energy sources. To further manage the region’s energy demand, the Plan also seeks to scale-up energy efficiency programs to capture more energy saving towards vast economic and environmental gains. The participation of the private sector and international financial institutions in mobilizing investments plays a vital role in attaining efficient, secure and sustainable energy supply. The Plan makes sure that energy supply is sustained by attracting prospective investments that will help meet the forecasted energy required capacity. Without private investments, the quest for secured energy, globalization and competition would indeed be very challenging. Through this Plan, the DOE is committed to contribute to a robust and vibrant Mindanao and pull Mindanawons out of poverty and lift them to the levels of prosperity. Mabuhay Mindanao! ALFONSO G. CUSI Secretary Department of Energy MINDANAO ENERGY PLAN 2018 - 2040 i Message Assalamo Alaikum wah’Rahmatullahi wah’barakutuh! My warmest congratulations to the energy family for the publication of the Mindanao Energy Plan (MEP) 2018-2040. The Mindanao Development Authority is honored to have assisted the formulation of the plan in partnership with the Department of Energy. I wish to also extend my gratitude to all our partners and stakeholders who contributed their insights and expertise during the rounds of consultation conducted in the key cities of Mindanao last year. Your valuable inputs have been instrumental in ensuring that the MEP 2018-2040 is truly responsive to the energy needs of Mindanao. MEP espouses a balanced energy mix with a 50 percent target for renewable energy by 2030. This is consistent with the targets that are also identified under the Mindanao 2030 Peace and Development Framework. With this, these plans will both serve as our guide in pursuing a dependable power system that optimizes the use of renewable energy, and ensures reliable distribution of affordable electricity up to the most remote barangays. However, this cannot be done by the government, alone. After all, MEP was formulated with potential energy investors in mind, given the foreseeable power demand clearly laid out in the plan. Blackouts and power deficits should no longer be a reality for Mindanao from 2018 onwards. I am confident that with a well-guided private sector on board, we will soon realize our vision of providing a reliable, sustainable, and affordable power for Mindanao. Mainstreaming the key findings and reports of MEP, will be crucial in keeping our partners in the business sector attuned with the energy requirements of Mindanao. Rest assured that MinDA, as the co-chair of the Mindanao Power Monitoring Committee (MPMC) will continue to harmonize efforts of all the MPMC-member agencies and external stakeholders to expedite renewable energy development in areas where they are needed the most. Let us continue the work towards a progressive Mindanao, one that is fueled by clean, renewable, and indigenous power sources. DATU ABUL KHAYR D. ALONTO Secretary Mindanao Development Authority ii MINDANAO ENERGY PLAN 2018 - 2040 Contents LIST OF TABLES iv LIST OF FIGURES vi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS viii OVERVIEW AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY x I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE 1 II. KEY ASSUMPTIONS, PARAMETERS AND METHODOLOGIES 3 III. ENERGY OUTLOOK 8 Key Trends and Development 8 Energy Demand Outlook 18 Power Supply Outlook 34 Policy Implications / Recommendations 52 IV. ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 54 Oil and Gas 54 Coal 55 Renewable Energy 58 V. ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 67 VI. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION PROGRAM 70 VII. DOWNSTREAM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 72 Oil Industry 72 Natural Gas Industry 76 VIII. POWER DEVELOPMENT 80 Mindanao Grid 80 Small Island Grids 83 Distribution 84 Electrification 85 IX. TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT 91 X. INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO 97 XI. REGIONAL PROFILE 105 XII. ANNEXES 117 MINDANAO ENERGY PLAN 2018 - 2040 iii Tables KEY ASSUMPTIONS, PARAMETERS AND METHODOLOGIES Table 1 Gross Regional Domestic Product Long Term Projection 2018-2040 – High Growth Scenario (Trillion Pesos @ 2000 constant Prices) Table 2 Gross Regional Domestic Product Long Term Projection 2018-2040 – Low Growth Scenario (Trillion Pesos @ 2000 constant Prices) Table 3 Population Projection 2018-2040, By Region (million persons) Table 4 World Energy Prices Table 5 Energy Price Projections KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT Table 6 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Region (KTOE) Table 7 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Sector (KTOE) Table 8 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Product (KTOE) Table 9 Total Petroleum Consumption, By Region (MB) Table 10 Total Petroleum Consumption, By Sector (MB) Table 11 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Petroleum Products (MB) Table 12 Density of Gasoline Stations in Mindanao versus the Philippines Table 13 Total Electricity Consumption, By Region (GWh) Table 14 Total Electricity Consumption, By Sector (GWh) Table 15 Total Coal Consumption, By Region (MMT @ 10,000 BTU/LB) Table 16 Total Coal Consumption, By Sector (MMT @ 10,000 BTU/LB) Table 17 Total Biomass Consumption, By Region (in ‘000 MT) Table 18 Mindanao Energy-Economy Indicators Table 19 Mindanao Energy Elasticity ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK Table 20 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Product (KTOE) – HGS Table 21 Total Final Energy Consumption, By Product (KTOE) – LGS Table 22 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Region (KTOE) – HGS Table 23 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Region (KTOE) – LGS Table 24 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 25 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 26 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Residential Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 27 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Residential Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 28 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Transportation Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 29 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Transportation Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 30 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Transportation Sector (KTOE) – By Modality Table 31 Mindanao-Wide Target of E-Vehicle Table 32 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Commercial Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 33 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Commercial Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 34 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Industry Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 35 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Industry Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 36 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Agriculture Sector (KTOE) – HGS Table 37 Total Final Energy Demand Outlook 2018-2040, Agriculture Sector (KTOE) – LGS Table 38 Total Petroleum Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Product (MB) – HGS Table 39 Total Petroleum Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Product (MB) – LGS Table 40 Total Petroleum Demand Outlook 2018-2040, By Region
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