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The Future of Natural Gas. Markets and Geopolitics Editors: Silvia Colombo, Mohamed El Harrak and Nicolò Sartori

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The Future of Natural Gas. Markets and Geopolitics Editors: Silvia Colombo, Mohamed El Harrak and Nicolò Sartori THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS MARKETS AND GEOPOLITICS EDITORS SILVIA COLOMBO, MOHAMED EL HARRAK AND NICOLÒ SARTORI The Future of Natural Gas Markets and Geopolitics Editors Silvia Colombo, Mohamed El Harrak and Nicolò Sartori The Future of Natural Gas. Markets and Geopolitics Editors: Silvia Colombo, Mohamed El Harrak and Nicolò Sartori Copyright © 2016 by Istituto Affari Internazionali, OCP Policy Center and Lenthe Publishers/European Energy Review. All rights reserved. Printed in The Netherlands. No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, electronic, photo- copying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Cover: Glam Lab Srl, Turin Cover image: iStock.com/Ole-Gunnar Rasmussen Graphic composition: Luca Mozzicarelli Publisher Lenthe/European Energy Review Houboerweg 1 7478 RS Hof van Twente The Netherlands www.europeanenergyreview.eu [email protected] ISBN 978-90-7545-882-4 Table of contents List of Contributors .......................................................................................................................9 List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................11 Foreword .....................................................................................................................................17 Introduction Lorenzo Colantoni, Silvia Colombo, Lilia Rizk and Nicolò Sartori ................................................19 1. The Future of Gas: The Transition Fuel? Luca Franza, Dick de Jong and Coby van der Linde ....................................................................25 1.1 The Case for Natural Gas as a Transition Fuel: Energy per Carbon Matters .....................26 1.2 The Failure of Policy-Making in Promoting Gas as a Transition Fuel .................................31 1.3 The Perception of Gas as a Politicised Commodity ........................................................... 34 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................39 2. On the Future of Global LNG Trade and Geopolitics Chi-Kong Chyong .........................................................................................................................41 2.1 Evolution of LNG Trade and Pricing .....................................................................................42 2.2 Spot and Short-term LNG Trade ......................................................................................... 46 2.3 Short-term Limits to Inter-Regional LNG Trade and Global Gas Market Integration ........51 2.4 Future LNG Developments and Implications for International Trade and Geopolitics ..... 54 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 60 3. The United States as a New Gas Exporter David Koranyi ............................................................................................................................. 63 3.1 US Natural Gas Production Potential ................................................................................. 63 3.2 US Natural Gas Demand .....................................................................................................65 3.3 Natural Gas Exports from the US .......................................................................................66 3.4 The Political and Regulatory Environment ......................................................................... 68 3.5 Global LNG and Gas Market Developments .......................................................................69 3.6 US LNG Export Competitiveness and Export Destinations ................................................72 3.7 Energy Security Considerations in Europe and Asia ..........................................................75 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................76 THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. Gas in South America: Resources, Corridors and Policies Gonzalo Escribano .......................................................................................................................79 4.1 Resources ............................................................................................................................ 80 4.2 Corridors ..............................................................................................................................85 4.3 Gas Policies ......................................................................................................................... 88 4.4 Looking Ahead .................................................................................................................... 94 5. The EU and LNG as a Flexible Tool for Energy Security: Constraints and Opportunities Giacomo Luciani ........................................................................................................................101 5.1 The Global LNG Market: Developments and Perspectives ..............................................103 5.2 LNG in European Gas Supplies ..........................................................................................106 5.3 The Commission’s Proposed LNG Strategy ......................................................................110 Conclusions ...............................................................................................................................115 6. Eastern Mediterranean Gas: Source of Prosperity for the Region? Ayla Gürel ..................................................................................................................................117 6.1 Eastern Mediterranean Gas Potential ...............................................................................118 6.2 Gas Discoveries and Development ...................................................................................120 6.3 Regional Political and Maritime Disputes ........................................................................126 6.4 Markets for Eastern Mediterranean Gas ..........................................................................131 Conclusions ...............................................................................................................................137 7. Western Mediterranean Gas: Towards North-South Convergence or Increasing Competition? Houda Ben Jannet Allal ............................................................................................................139 7.1 Natural Gas Demand Is Booming in the Western Mediterranean Region .......................140 7.2 Natural Gas Supply in the Western Mediterranean Region ............................................144 7.3 Natural Gas Trade in the Western Mediterranean Region ..............................................152 7.4 Western Mediterranean Gas: Driver for North-South Convergence and Win-Win Cooperation .................................................................................................155 8. Winds of Change. Challenging Future for Russia’s Gas Agata Łoskot-Strachota .............................................................................................................159 8.1 Potential: Russian Gas Reserves and Production .............................................................160 8.2 Russian Gas on the Domestic Market ..............................................................................162 8.3 Decreasing Role of the CIS Market ...................................................................................167 8.4 Europe and Turkey .............................................................................................................171 8.5 Challenges and Changes in Gas Trade with Europe .........................................................173 Conclusions ...............................................................................................................................177 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS 9. Sub-Saharan Africa: A Future Global Gas Player? Philippe Copinschi and Mark Smedley .....................................................................................181 9.1 The Evolution of the Hydrocarbon Industry in West Africa ..............................................183 9.2 East Africa: A New Frontier for the Gas Industry .............................................................198 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 203 10. Asia’s Natural Gas and LNG Market Trends Wenran Jiang ........................................................................................................................... 207 10.1 Asia’s Thirst for Natural Gas and LNG ........................................................................... 208 10.2 Impact of the Oil Price Decline on Asian Gas Dynamics ................................................211 10.3 China’s Gas and LNG Strategies .....................................................................................214 10.4 China-Russia Cooperation ...............................................................................................217 10.5 Other Regional Dynamics ................................................................................................219
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