Australian Antarctic Science Strategic Plan 2011-12 to 2020-21 Stream Implementation Plan August 2018

Stream 1.1 The Antarctic ice sheet Stream goal

To significantly improve the estimates of ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, for incorporation in sea level projections for 2050, 2100 and beyond.

Some elements of this plan are being addressed by projects listed below each KRQ. However significant gaps, and hence priorities for research for new proposals in this application round can be identified. Individual areas have been rated for priority (1 or 2) on the basis of urgency, impact or sequencing needs.

Key research question KRQ 1.1.1 What are the processes controlling dynamic ice discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet, and how will this influence future sea level rise?

Projects under this key research question include: Project Chief Investigator Project Title

4077 Dr Jason Roberts ICECAP: Investigating Cryospheric Evolution through Collaborative Aerogeophysical Profiling in the Australian Antarctic Territory 4116 Dr Rob Massom Large-scale Change and Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice, and Links with the Ice Sheet 4287 Dr Ben Galton-Fenzi Ocean forced evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 4289 Dr Adam Treverrow Ice rheology for ice sheet modelling 4318 Prof. Matthew King Removing bias from estimates of East Antarctica’s contribution to present and past sea-level changes 4333 A/Prof. Leanne Armand Interactions of the Totten Glacier with the Southern Ocean through multiple glacial cycles 4342 Dr Christian Schoof Outlet Glacier Dynamics in Princess Elizabeth Land 4346 Dr Jason Roberts ICECAP II 4355 Dr Jacqueline Halpin Reconstructing East Antarctica in Gondwana: ground-truthing a new tectonic model 4419 Dr Taryn Noble Response of the Totten Glacier to past climate warming 4422 A/Prof. Andy Hogg A new approach to ice melting rates: Direct numerical simulation 4436 Prof. Matthew King Totten Ice Dynamics and Evolution

Research is still required to do the following: Outcome Priorities for new research proposals Approach Improved definition of major sources of Ice sheet modelling: development and evaluation and Ice sheet/shelf/atmosphere modelling studies to test uncertainty in future ice sheet contributions to validation and applications, quantifying response of model processes/physics, simulate past ice sheet Outcome Priorities for new research proposals Approach sea-level and reduced uncertainty of model the ice sheet to ice shelf changes and atmospheric behaviour and present day dynamics, and produce projections (as a result of improved model and forcing (including coupling to ocean in conjunction improved estimates of future ice sheet change. boundary conditions). with stream 1.2.3 and atmosphere in conjunction with stream 1.3.2.2). Priority 1

Ice physics and boundary conditions, past and New estimates to constrain past ice sheet (and shelf) present (in conjunction with stream 1.4.2). configurations (from cosmogenic and other ice sheet Characterisation and modelling of subglacial marginal data). processes. Priority 1 Using airborne and in situ data to improve models of basal processes, including field measurements targeted to areas where poorly characterised boundary conditions (including topographic controls) are a significant contributor to overall uncertainty. Laboratory and modelling studies to constrain ice dynamical properties. Laboratory and modelling studies in support of establishing geothermal heat flux controls on ice sheet. Studies of subglacial hydrology and processes using modelling and observational intercomparisons.

Key research question KRQ 1.1.2 What is the present state and rate of change of Antarctic ice mass, including key observables, snow accumulation and melt?

Projects under this key research question include: Project Chief Investigator Project Title

4061 Dr Andrew Moy High Resolution East Antarctic Climate History (HiREACH): Ice core records of continental, hemispheric and global change 4062 Dr Andrew Moy Law Dome Summit Snow-Climate Observatory 4075 Dr Mark Curran Aurora Basin North ice coring 4077 Dr Jason Roberts ICECAP: Investigating Cryospheric Evolution through Collaborative Aerogeophysical Profiling in the Australian Antarctic Territory

Stream 1.1 The Antarctic ice sheet 2 Project Chief Investigator Project Title

4155 Dr Simon McClusky Antarctic Mass Balance: Data Mining and Assimilation of Geodetic Observations 4160 Dr Paul Tregoning What is happening in Enderby Land? 4287 Dr Ben Galton-Fenzi Ocean forced evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 4318 Prof. Matthew King Removing bias from estimates of East Antarctica’s contribution to present and past sea-level changes 4342 Dr Christian Schoof Outlet Glacier Dynamics in Princess Elizabeth Land 4346 Dr Jason Roberts ICECAP II 4422 A/Prof. Andy Hogg A new approach to ice melting rates: Direct numerical simulation 4436 Prof. Matthew King Totten Ice Dynamics and Evolution

Research is still required to do the following: Outcome Priorities for new research proposals Approach Improved characterisation of current Quantification of regional sea level change. Priority 1 Analysis of historical trends in local Antarctic and contribution to sea level, including regional Southern Ocean sea level measurements. assessment. Characterisation of ice flow/discharge rates and Synthesis and process studies using in situ GPS data Identification of areas of change and elevation changes in areas of dynamic interest (major and remotely sensed satellite/airborne data streams. vulnerability. outlet glaciers). Includes quantification of intrinsic Model based studies of forcing. variability in forcing from ocean (with stream 1.2.3.1) Better capability to test and validate ice sheet Field process studies with in-situ observations and detecting trends. Priority 1 models. (borehole, radar, ApRES, seismic) and synthesis with airborne and remote sensed data.

Determination of surface mass balance (SMB): large Assimilation/validation of field data, into remote- scale fields and local/regional measurements. sensing and modelling studies to quantify processes, particularly wind-blown snow. Calibration/validation of remote sensed derived SMB products, and atmospheric modelling (in conjunction Collaborative field SMB studies with international with stream 1.3.2). Particular attention to integrated partners including the use of ice core/stake and other studies linking ice shelf-atmosphere and ice shelf- surface mass balance/ glaciological data where ocean studies to fully understand ice shelf appropriate to provide validation data for vulnerability (cuts across stream 1.1, 1.2.3, 1.3.2). model/remote sensing.

Stream 1.1 The Antarctic ice sheet 3 Outcome Priorities for new research proposals Approach Both Priority 2 Determination of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) Modelling and synthesis studies including remote rates in poorly characterised areas and application to sensed satellite gravity products. gravity studies to derive improved mass change estimates. Priority 2

Please note:  The Australian Antarctic program does not have the logistical capability to support all aspects of these implementation plans simultaneously.  Stream implementation plans represent the current research priorities and approaches.  Alignment to implementation plans is an important criterion in assessing research proposals. As proposals are being developed, Theme Leaders are available to provide feedback on specific priorities for future years including locations, approaches and opportunities to participate in coordinated field campaigns.  Projects mentioned above can be viewed on the AAD web site’s database of current and previous projects.

Stream 1.1 The Antarctic ice sheet 4