Wesleyan University Chaos, Clio, and Scientific Illusions of Understanding Author(s): Paul A. Roth and Thomas A. Ryckman Reviewed work(s): Source: History and Theory, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Feb., 1995), pp. 30-44 Published by: Blackwell Publishing for Wesleyan University Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2505582 . Accessed: 20/04/2012 19:31 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact
[email protected]. Blackwell Publishing and Wesleyan University are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to History and Theory. http://www.jstor.org CHAOS, CLIO, AND SCIENTISTIC ILLUSIONS OF UNDERSTANDING* PAUL A. ROTH and THOMAS A. RYCKMAN ABSTRACT A number of authors have recently argued that the mathematical insights of "chaos theory" offer a promising formal model or significant analogy for understanding at least some historical events. We examine a representative claim of each kind regarding the application of chaos theory to problems of historical explanation. We identify two lines of argument. One we term the Causal Thesis, which states that chaos theory may be used to plausibly model, and so explain, historical events. The other we term the Convergence Thesis, which holds that, once the analogy between history and chaos theory is properly appreciated, any temptation to divide history from the rest of science should be greatly lessened.