Economics of Education Munich, 3–4 September 2021 Matching in the Dark? Inequalities in student to degree match Stuart Campbell, Lindsey Macmillan, Richard Murphy, and Gill Wyness Matching in the Dark? Inequalities in student to degree match Stuart Campbella, Lindsey Macmillana, Richard Murphyb,c and Gill Wynessa,b July 2021 Abstract: This paper examines inequalities in the match between student and degree quality using linked administrative data from schools, universities and tax authorities. We analyse two measures of match at the university-subject level: undergraduate enrollment qualifications, and graduate earnings. We find for both that disadvantaged students match to lower quality degrees across the entire distribution of achievement, in a setting with uniform fees and a generous financial aid system. While there are negligible gender gaps in academic match, high-attaining women systematically undermatch in terms of expected earnings, driven by subject choice. These inequalities in match are largest among the most undermatched. JEL classification: I23, I24 Keywords: higher education, educational economics, college choice, mismatch, undermatch Acknowledgements: We thank Paul Gregg, Sandra McNally, John Friedman, Peter Bergman and Leigh Linden for helpful comments, as well as seminar participants at Austin, Columbia, CEP, Cornell, ISER, and Queen's Belfast, workshop participants at Catanzaro, IAB, and York, and conference participants at APPAM, EALE, ESPE, RES and SOLE. We also thank the editor and anonymous reviewer for highly useful comments. Wyness, Macmillan and Campbell acknowledge Nuffield Foundation funding (172585). Correspondence:
[email protected] a UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities b Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science c University of Texas at Austin, 1 1.