The Use of the Regular Militaries for Natural

Sustainable Development Law & Policy

Volume 20 Issue 1 Fall 2019: Comparative International Article 2 Approaches to Environmental Challenges

The Use of the Regular Militaries for Natural Disaster Assistance: Climate Change and the Increasing Need for Changes to the Laws in the United States, China, Japan, the Philippines, and Other Countries

Donald D.A. Schaefer

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Recommended Citation Schaefer, Donald D.A. (2019) "The Use of the Regular Militaries for Natural Disaster Assistance: Climate Change and the Increasing Need for Changes to the Laws in the United States, China, Japan, the Philippines, and Other Countries," Sustainable Development Law & Policy: Vol. 20 : Iss. 1 , Article 2. Available at: https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/sdlp/vol20/iss1/2

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sustainable Development Law & Policy by an authorized editor of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. T HE USE OF THE REGULAR MILITARIES FOR NATURAL DISASTER ASSISTANCE: C LIMATE C HANGE AND THE I NCREASING N EED FOR CHANGES TO THE LAWS IN THE UNITED S TATES, CHINA, J APAN, THE P HILIPPINES, AND O THER COUNTRIES By Donald D.A. Schaefer*

INTRODUCTION CURRENT USE OF MJLITARJES oday's enviro nment has been changing, with ever-more Currentl y, rnilitaries around the world primaril y protect hurricanes, typh oons, and cyclones becoming stronger their countries and, if deemed necessary, fi ght wars. In T and causin g in creasing damage to li ves, communities, di scussing the poli tical nature of wars, 19th centu ry marti al and countries as a whole . For the most part, the response time strategist C lausewitz posits that " war is simply a continuati on has been slow due to bureaucrati c mi ssteps and other top of poli tical intercourse, with the addi tion of other means. We down governance. Regul ar mi litari es have often been bro ught ... want to make it clear that war in itself does not suspend in haphazardly, and in many cases toward th e end of the event. political intercourse or change it into something entirely M ilitari es around th e world should fi nd ways to a ll ow more di ffe rent. In essenti als that intercourse continues, irrespecti ve effecti ve use in assisting natu ral disaster efforts. Currently, of the means it employs." 1 War, th erefore, is poli ti cs by other po li tic ia ns call in the military more as an afterthought when means. Nations have used their mil ita ri es to quell domesti c things start to get catas trophic, but by that ti me it is often too uprisings as well as fi ght wars from both those who woul d late. Instead, countries sho uld have a pl an in place for a single in vade them and those they would in vade. Militari es do not call from the president, prime minister, or oth er nati onal leader to appear to freq uently depl oy to provide aid to those in disaster hi s or her mil itary leader(s) to mobilize military fo rces when an stricken areas, however, ignorin g a major politica l ro le that event such as a category 5 typhoon or hurricane is approaching. rnilitari es could pl ay outside war time. Many nations wi ll need to change their laws, revise their pl ans, Whi le the United States' military has grown under the and provide ongoing training fo r both military leaders and leadership of Uni ted States President Donald Trump,2 China personnel to ensure th at such protocols are allowed, understood, has steadil y ri sen as a global military power. 3 Weizhen Tan, and implemented. With increased climate change and the impact Markets Editor fo r CNBC As ia points out, "Asia does not that it is having, such acti on w ill become increasin gly necessary: depend solely on the U.S. fo r security, but with th e Chinese millions of lives w il l depend upon changes to many nati ons' navy, army and air fo rce growin g in strength , a 'far more rnul ti curre nt intern al laws regarding local and internati onal di saster polar, un stabl e military environment' has resulted."4 A recent assistance in order to survive. report by the U.S. Department of Defense acknowledges thi s This paper examines fo ur developed nati ons th at all face shift: frequent natura l disasters and that also share troubled hi stories China's leaders have benefited from what they view concerning cooperating on military matters: th e United States, as a "peri od of strategic opportuni ty" during th e initial C hina, Japan, and the Philippines. These nati ons were chosen two decades of the 2 151 century to develop domesti call y to complete a comparati ve analysis with the United States. The and expand China 's "compre hensive nati onal power." selected countries were chosen from the Asia-Pacifi c region, Over the corning decades, they are focused on rea li zing which has continued to ex perience some of th e greatest impacts a powerful and prosperous C hina that is equ ipped with fro m typhoons, fl ooding, a nd earthquakes, and to survey a a "world-class" military, securing China's status as a variety of governmental polic ies. The concern s this paper raises great power with the aim of emerging as the preeminent set a precedent for other countries to take simi lar plans to train power in the lndo-Pac ifi c region.5 regul a r militari es fo r interna l catastrophic natural di sasters in advance and to put these practices in to play immedi ate ly, preventing wasted time try ing to fi gure o ut what to do next. These changes require ame ndments and re interpretati ons of * Donald D.A. Schae fer, J.D. (2004, Un iversity of Washington), M .A. in Constitutional laws, but nati ons around th e world could benefi t Education (200 1, Uni versity of Michigan), Ph .D. in Political Science ( 1999, from making the necessary changes to ensure th at loss of li fe Uni versity of M ichigan), B. A . in Political Science and B.A . in Reli gion [double and property decrease. major] ( 1993, Uni versity o f Hawaii). Thi s is written in memory of his dissertation cha ir, Harold K. Jacobson. The author would like to thank hi s wife Ma. C ri sha F. Schaefer, his editor Charles C. Grimm, a nd the editors of this journa l for thei r edito ri al support.

4 Sustainable Development Law & Policy China also has a very large military when compared to animosity over a territorial dispute and differing views the United States.6 According to Business Insider, "With a on wartime history. population of 1.3 billion to draw from . .. China has over 2.3 "Japan-China relations have normalized," Kono told million in active service, with an additional l. l million as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in a meeting Monday. reserves and military police."7 With such large militaries, both "There are many difficult issues that we have yet to would be expected to be able to address internal disasters with resolve, but we should stand shoulder to shoulder to force, but neither side has done an adequate job with formally work on issues on a global scale."22 stated and provisioned preparations to this point. The final two countries this paper analyzes, the Philippines As these two countries grow closer and put their differences and Japan, both have much smaller militaries and have chosen to aside, simple economic cooperation and peace-time diplomacy use them for primarily defensive purposes.8 China and the United should not overshadow international disaster preparation. For States have continued strong if tenuous relationships with Japan true peace between China and Japan, a mutual agreement to - relationships that are being tested as China increases its reach assist each other should a catastrophic event impact either of within the Eastern Hemisphere.9 Japan has a tremulous history them needs to be established. with both China and the United States10 due to the wars against In the case of the Philippines, the military (estimated to 23 and occupation of these countries, but today Japan depends on be around 300,000 in strength ) has transformed recently and benefits from both. 11 Japan surrendered to the United States from a primarily internal defense posture to one of protecting after a lengthy and bloody war, 12 but has since gained influence its seas against China and others who would use its territorial as a key American ally.13 Japan's military has been primarily waters.24 At the same time, this nation bas gotten closer to used for defense purposes in the post-World War II era. 14 It is China as the Philippines sees such relationship with the United 25 a military, however, that can and should be used in the case of States as waning : " 'Your Honors, in this venue, I announce natural disasters. my separation from the United States ... both in military, but With China's increasing presence in the Asian world, economics also,' said Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte to a however, Japan appears to be moving away from the United burst of applause from an audience of officials in Beijing's Great States as an ally 15 even as it continues to receive vast amounts Hall of the People . ... "26 This distancing has continued. De of aid through a large U.S. military presence within its borders. 16 Castro points out the difference in Duterte's administration more For Prime Minister Shinz6 Abe, finding that balance between specifically, China's Xi and America's Trump continues to be a challenge. On President Duterte has charted a different course for the one hand, his relationship with Trump maintains the strong Philippine foreign policy. His pronouncements and ties his country continues to enjoy economically and militarily actions are undoing former President Aquino's agenda with the United States. Despite this history of mutual support, of balancing China's expansive claim in the South Trump has found Japan willing to push back against him and China Sea specifically by weaning the Philippines away perhaps even win regarding economics. William Pesek, author from its long-standing treaty ally, the United States. In of Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan s Lost turn, he has gravitated toward China. President Duterte Decade and Politico reporter, states, "Trump might be surprised believes that an appeasement policy on China is to find Abe is more willing to push back than roll over" when it advantageous for the Philippines and is worth pursuing comes to trade relations with the United States.17 in exchange for the latter's economic largesse.27 Both Xi and Abe have strengthened their countries' friendship, despite the histories of their two respective countries. Still, Duterte must contend with the ongoing conflict with Japan's relationship with China has come with a price, however. China in the South China Sea, specifically as it relates to the Many Chinese citizens refuse to forget 18 the Nanjing Massacre 19 building up of defensive forces surrounding the "islands, islets, even as officials bypass mentioning this incident in order for the reefs, and shoals contested by the Philippines."28 Duterte two countries to work more closely together. The Associated struggles to find a balance between the desire to continue his Press states, "Chinese officials struck a tempered tone on the ties to the United States29 and his desire to court Xi amidst 80th anniversary of the Nanking Massacre on Wednesday, the ongoing conflict in this region.30 The ties between Xi and saying China would ' look forward' and deepen friendship with Duterte continue to grow, however: its neighbor Japan despite historical misgivings."2° Current Beijing and Manila have agreed to a joint oil -and gas tensions over the Senkaku Islands, which both China and Japan exploration deal - one of 29 deals that were signed on Tuesday claim, also threaten ongoing efforts at reconciliation.2 1 Yet, as Chinese President Xi Jinping began a two-day state visit to both countries appear ready to move beyond these islands. As the Philippines. akamaru points out, The two nations also si gned a memorandum ofunderstanding to cooperate on Beijing's vast trade and infrastructure strategy, On his three-day visit to Beijing from Saturday, Foreign the "Belt and Road Initiative", and agreed to boost ties. Minister Taro Kono was on a mi sion to further a recent improvement in Sino-Japanese ties following years of

Fall 2019 5 After meeting Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte for typhoons Mangkhut (Philippines and China), Yutu (Mariana talks, Xi described the visit as a "milestone" in the countries' Jslands), and Jebi (Japan).43 All told, natural disasters affected relations. Xi is the first Chinese leader to visit Manila in 13 years. approximately 62 million people,44 which explains the United . . . "China and the Philippines have a lot of common Nations' assertion: interests in the South China Sea," Xi said after the talks. " We will Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and continue to manage contentious issues and promote maritime we are at a defining moment. From shifting weather cooperation through friendly consultation."3 1 patterns that threaten food production, to ri sin g sea The ongoing conflict between the United States and China levels that increase the ri sk of catastrophic flooding, has given way to the possibility of a greater Chinese interest the impacts of climate change are global in scope and in the Philippines as China chooses to move toward greater unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action today, influence within this area of the world. Yet, Trump continues to adapting to these impacts in the future will be more court Duterte, even boasting, "We've had a great relationship."32 difficult and costly.45 According to the Washington Post, however, With g lobal temperatures rising, the impact of the changing At an Asian summit last week, Vice President Pence environment has become more apparent with each passing year. 46 and Chinese President Xi Jinping traded barbs and For the first time, in 2019 "the concentration of carbon dioxide delivered dueling visions of an Asia-Pacific region in the atmosphere eclipsed 415 parts per million . .. . Saturday's tilted toward one of two poles: the United States or carbon dioxide measurement of 415 parts per million at Hawaii's C hina. Mauna Loa Observatory is th e highest in at least 800,000 years Hours later, the Chinese leader hit the road on a and probably over 3 million years. Carbon dioxide levels have Southeast Asian charm offensive. risen by nearly 50 percent since the Industrial Revolution."47 Climate change thus presents a "threat multiplier" :48 climate Xi swept into the Philippines on Tuesday as the first change will continue to in crease the power and scope of natural Chinese leader to make a state visit in 13 years . . .. di sasters, whi ch will increasingly affect a population that Xi's visit to the Philippines - once an unshakable may reach 8 billion by 2025.49 Even as leaders in the United U.S. ally with deep hi storical and cultural ties to the States refuse to address how it impacts humans during major U nited States - encapsulates how Southeast Asia and events such as flooding, thi s paper urges world leaders to begin the Pacific have become ground zero in the accelerating determining how best to address the changin g environment's contest for g lobal influence between Beijing and impact on a population during catastrophic events. 50 Washington. 33 Current acknowledgment of and preparation for climate change remains insufficient. The leaders of the United States, So, while the United States may wish to move forward with China, Japan, and the Philippines have addressed climate change its ties, both Duterte and Xi increasin gly choose to push back in drastically different ways. Trump has always been a sceptic of against America and move closer together. As the Philippines climate change. In a Washington Post articl e, chooses which relationship to strengthen, both nations will likely continue to have influence. President Trump on Tuesday di smissed a landmark Should another catastrophic event such as a category 5 report5 1 com pi led by 13 federal agencies detai Iing typhoon reach its sbores,34 the Philippines will need to act fast bow damage from g lobal warming is intensify in g but may call upon assistance from both of its powerful trade throughout the country, .. . partners, the United States and China. The South China Sea35 , The comments were the president's most extensive the East C hina Sea36, and seas globally37 have been trending yet on why he disagrees with his own government's warmer, directly impacting C hina, Japan, and the Philippines analysis, which found that climate change poses a through stronger and more powerful typhoons. Each nation severe threat to the health of Americans, as well as benefits most by remaining in close relationship with the other to the country's infrastructure, economy and natural nations to survive as a viable economic entity; therefore, all four resources. The findings - unequivocal, urgent and countries should be prepared to work with each other as well as alarming - are at odds with the Trump administration's other nations, should a catastrophic natural di saster occur. rollback of environmental regulations and absence of A CHANGI NG WORLD any climate action policy. The year 20 18 saw som e of the most extreme weather "One of the problems that a lot of people like myself, since records began being recorded. 38 A recent report by the we have very high levels of intelligence but we're not World Meteorological Organization paints a picture of steadily necessarily such believers . . . . As to whether or not it's increasing extreme weather,39 including increased rainfall and man-made and whether or not the effects that you' re droughts that have led to flooding and wildfires40 globally: 4 1 in talking about are there, I don't see it,".52 the United States, Hurricanes Florence and Michae1 ;42 in Asia,

6 Sustainable Development Law & Policy Trump bas continued to regard climate change skeptically, Climate change can be life-threatening to all even as more floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes ravage the United generations, be it the elderly or the young and in States. In contrast to Trump, Xi has been a vocal supporter of developed and developing countries alike. The problem issues concerning climate change and has been a world leader is exacerbating more quickly than we expected. We when it comes to pollution and alternate forms of energy, such as must take more robust actions. And swiftly. solar panels, wind energy. 53 Xi stated in 2016, The way forward is clear. We must save both the green I have said for many times that green mountains and of the earth and the blue of its oceans .... clear water are as good as mountains of gold and silver. Addressing climate change, marine pollution, and To protect the environment is to protect productivity, disaster risk reduction are critical pillars for achieving and to improve the environment is to boost productivity. the UN's Sustainable Development Goals.56 This simple fact is increasingly recognized by people. Abe has chosen to address climate change head-on: We will unwaveringly pursue a strategy of sustainable "Almost immediately after winning another term at the helm of development and stay committed to green, low-carbon Japan's ruling party, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signaled that and circular development and China's fundamental he intended to show more leadership on climate cbange."57 policy of conserving resources and protecting the For him, the reality of the recent changes in climate is reason environment. In promoting green development, we also for concern, as Japan has faced massive mudslides caused by aim to address climate change and overcapacity. In the increasing rain patterns and typhoons.58 Therefore, the necessity next five years, China's water and energy consumption of preparing for the next major catastrophic event to face Japan as well as C02 emission per unit of GDP will be cut from a natural disaster perspective is critical, which requires down by 23%, 15% and 18% respectively. We will considering how the military will be used when such events take make China a beautiful country with blue sky, green place. vegetation and clear rivers, so that the people will enjoy For Duterte, the Philippines faces a similar scenario life in a livable environment and the ecological benefits regarding climate change59 and the necessity to address it. created by economic development.54 Duterte has stated recently, "Climate change is not a typhoon The contrast between Trump and Xi's outlook on the that visits your country once or twice a year. Climate change environment could not differ further. Both leaders will need to is a day-to-day problem."60 In regards to the withdrawal of the address the changes that are taking place in the environment United States from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, as more catastrophic events caused by climate change such as Duterte has stated, "I have to fathom the reason or even the category 5 typhoons and hurricanes, along with the flooding that rationale of the withdrawal. Is it because it cannot work hand occurs as a result, only increases in the future. How each comes in hand with other nations? Or is it because Trump would like to terms with this change may well determine the fate that each to do it alone?" 61 Duterte signed the Paris agreement in 2017, may bring to countless people. even with his misgivings that it favors industrial countries.62 Both Abe of Japan and Duterte of the Philippines have His support, however, has been strong for the need to address supported counteracting climate change. Japan and the climate change and its impact on the environment. Given the Philippines have faced extreme weather systems that have recent catastrophic events - from heavy rains, to flooding, forced countless people from their homes and communities, and typhoons - that have hit the Philippines63 and other parts making disaster management the key to survival. 55 Abe and of Asia,64 such support should continue not only from him but Duterte each have come to a better understanding of the impact also from other leaders around the world. Duterte preaches that of global warming and have stated their desire to address the cooperation is necessary: changes that are taking place. In Japan, where experience with President Rodrigo Duterte has called on different climate change has been dramatic, each passing year requires countries to have a " collective action" on climate further changes. As noted by Abe in an op-ed on September 23 , change amid the concerning impacts of weather 2018, disturbances on developing countries. Unprecedented torrential rain and landslides ravaged During the Belt and Road Forum for International the residents of western Japan this summer, killing more Cooperation in China, Duterte thanked countries that than 200 people, and ruining hundreds of thousands of helped the Philippines in times of calamities and called livelihoods. Meanwhile, severe scorching heatwaves for a more "proactive measures" on climate change. struck the country and resulted in approximately 160 deaths. Fierce heat also gripped North America and "President Duterte expressed grave concern over the Europe, and hurricanes and typhoons hit the US and impact of more frequent and more intense disruptive Philippines .... weather on developing countries like the Philippines, and called for greater principled, concerted and

Fall 2019 7 collective action on climate change," Malacafiang65 When the Insurrection Act has been invoked, the PCA's said in a statement released Sunday.66 restrictions are li fted and members of the military, under the command of the president, are free to arrest It is apparent that Duterte has grasped the significance of U.S. citizens for violations of state and federal law. . climate's impact on his country, as have Xi and Abe to a lesser . . The Insurrection Act, as an exception to the PCA, extent. Trump, for hi s part, should also come to realize the recognizes that in certain circumstances the national significance of climate change on natural disasters in the United interest is best promoted by the federal military States. Collectively, these nations represent a relatively small performing law enforcement functions within the sector of the global impact of climate change. Other regions of states. 82 Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe should all be taken into account, with the leader of each country addressing how climate An Executive Order83 concerning the interpretation of the change will affect the weather patterns within their respective Insurrection Act, however, could allow for the regular military leadership when it comes to catastrophic natural disasters. In to be used at the immediate and massive scale for catastrophic turn, laws wi ll need to change to allow the military more natural disasters as well as an exception to the PCA that needs streamlined access to the areas most affected when such events to be signed by Trump to ensure that when another Hurricane occur. It is this area - the legal side of assistance - that this paper Katrina level event occurs the necessary legal framework will be now turns. in place to ensure the survival and wellbeing of those involved. The use of the regular military wi ll ass ist the Federal Emergency GLOBAL LEGAL SITUATIONS lN ADDRESSING Management Agency (FEMA) but should also be the first major NATURAL DISASTERS V IA THE MILITARY force to arrive once a catastrophic natural disaster occurs. Perhaps few other issues have dominated the issue of The use of thi s executive order to use the regular military as climate change in relation to natural disasters as the impact on armed police in addition to the National Guard in this capacity human li ves: Hurricane Michael,67 Maria,68 or Katrina69 in the wou ld most likely be upheld by the courts if it is given as an United States; the 2008 Sichuan earthquake 70 and the 2018 Super exception to the Insurrection Act. Executive orders and other Typhoon Mangkhut7 1 in China; the Great East Japan Earthquake forms of unilateral actions have been upheld by the courts84 and in 201 1 that caused the Fukushima Daiichi Accident72 and the have the power of those signed into law by Congress,85 including 73 20 l 8 Typhoon Jebi in Japan ; or the super typhoon Yo landa/ the use of executive agreements as a unilateral action86 to Haiyan in 201374 as well as Super Typhoon Mangkhut that first provide assistance to an ally like Japan or the Philippines, should came ashore in the Philippines before moving on to China.75 a catastrophic event occur there or elsewhere outside the borders The military of each of these countries played some role, and of the United States.87 the government in each country had to account for its actions U.S. presidents throughout history have chosen to use during the devastating consequences of each event. Laws need executive orders for purposes of unilateral actions. Gallagher to change to a ll ow regular militaries to be used proactively and and Blackstone have stated, "While Congress is understood to be effectively during natural disasters rather than in the haphazard, the primary institution in the policy-making process, ambiguity often limited manner currently used, and certainly not as a last about the meaning of 'executi ve power' and ' faithfu ll y execute' resort. has opened the door for many influential policy decisions to The main problem most establi shed nations face in dealing be made by presidents acting unilaterally."88 Trump has made with natural disasters is the sovereignty for the local area's extensive use of executive orders89 since coming into office,90 leadership being overshadowed by national leadership bringing and those orders have been given deference9 1 - especiall y given troops to a given area. The legal challenges may be immense; the conservative nature of the current U.S . Supreme Court, however, by changin g or reinterpreting laws, such massive use with conservative j ustices holding a 5-4 lead. As with previous of military support in times of national crisis will ensure the presidents, personality traits may determine the course of action more effective use of the armed forces during natural disasters, and in what circumstances such orders are given.92 potentially saving whole communities. Once a catastrophic natural disaster event takes place - domestically or internationally - the president must address THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA it, which wi ll impact the public's perception of the president Perhaps few other issues stand in the way of an effective use as a leader. 93 Therefore, it is critical to understand the use of of America's regular military (Army, Air Force, Marines, and such unilateral actions from the perspective of the executi ve.94 6 77 Navy) as much as the Posse Comitatus Act7 (PCA) of 1878 Presidents have used the armed forces without Congressional 78 that forbids the use of federal troops for enforcement purposes. authorization through the use of unilateral action,95 typically 79 While any number of exceptions are currently allowed, the sending troops on military missions overseas, without informing 80 Insurrection Act of 1807 presents the best opportunity. The Congress until after the action was initiated.96 Therefore, the Insurrection Act allows troops (beyond the National Guard) to president can point to precedent to take a unilateral action after 8 1 be deployed in the United States for peace-keeping duties . first giving an executive order (privately or otherwise) that wi ll McGrane states, all ow the president to commit troops to a part of the United

8 Sustainable Development Law & Policy States threatened by a hurricane, earthquake, etc. The PCA failed The main problem was that the request for government to assist President George W. Bush [hereafter "Bush"] with assistance by the governors of impacted states was not Hurricane Katrina in 2005 because troops were not deployed made clear. Even though the need for military assistance until much later than was necessary,97 and even then they were was included in request letters, the explicit types and not used effectively.98 numbers of military units were not specified in the Had an executive order been given previously regarding first few days. Another challenge was the complexity the Insurrection Act, troops could have been provided during of legal statuses and command and control structures. Hurricane Katrina at the onset, thereby saving lives and The separation in the command structure of both the property.99 Yet it was federalism that "substantially motivated ational Guard and the active-duty military resulted in President Bush's decision not to invoke the Insurrection Act slower operations and overall military response. 105 after Katrina." 100 He goes on later to state, Kapucu continues, stating the governor had no way to Katrina exposed a failure in the United States' disaster request active-duty Army and Marine land forces. 106 The author relief system. The storm made landfall on Monday concludes by stating, morning; it wasn't until Saturday that the federal The military currently is governed by a lengthy, government made up its mind about whether or not to complex authorization process. Considering the lesson use the military for law enforcement purposes inside learned from Hurricane Katrina about the failures in New Orleans. Because of the objections of Governor establishing effective military engagement, emphasis [Kathleen] Blanco and the overriding state sovereignty should be put on addressing procedural obstacles, legal concerns, the Bush Administration decided against complexities, cost factors, political complications, .. . invoking the Insurrection Act and using military as and other factors that contribute to the timeliness of a police. 101 military response. 107 The Office of Legal Counsel under the Department of Justice As Kapucu has clearly indicated, local governments also stated that Bush had legal authority to use the Insurrection Act need a clear path to request the Army, Navy, Marines, and Air over the objection of Governor Kathleen Blanco to justify the Force in times of catastrophic natural disaster. An executive presence of active-duty federal troops. 102 In this sense, the order before or after a disaster declaration 108 by the president Insurrection Act has proven to constitute an exception to the as an interpretation of the Insurrection Act could reduce this PCA in the time of Hurricane Katrina, and, as a consequence, logistical burden from national and local leadership, who should may be used again and legally upheld. Through an executive instead concern themselves with the other rigors of leading order signed in the near future, Trump and future presidents through a crisis. This executive order may be created either as may find such a written order useful at a moment's notice to an immediate use just before such action is required or be signed assist in times of catastrophic natural disasters such as Hurricane in the near future and put in place so that the use of the military Katrina 103 whether or not the governor(s) chooses to accept such can be given quickly. Yet, as Banks, currently a College of Law help. Therefore, Trump should consider drafting or signing the Board of Advisors Distinguished Professor at the peak of his order so that when future catastrophic natural disasters occur, 30 years at Syracuse University, points out, "As the Katrina assistance may be given without dispute over his power to make experience demonstrated, however, the lack of a clear blueprint such an order. Neglecting to do so puts him at risk of earning the for a shared state and federal response to a major disaster greatly same reputation for indecision that Bush earned with Hurricane complicated the response to the storm, and even adroitness Katrina. would have been too little too late to prevent some of the worst America had no direct plan in place at the time of Hurricane effects ofKatrina."109 The continued failure to have such a plan Katrina that would have allowed Bush to make a simple call in place to use active-duty military in times of major natural to the 82nct Airborne or other special operations' units within disasters will likely mean only continued pain and suffering for the armed forces to mobilize. Lipton, Schmitt and Shanker, those involved once such events take place in the future. New York Times correspondents covering political issues for a cumulative 30+ years, state that in the aftermath of Hurricane THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Katrina, "one senior Army officer expressed puzzlement that China has had a long history of disaster management' 10 but active-duty troops were not summoned sooner, saying 82nd still needs to improve. 111 Xi will need to consider how to deal Airborne troops were ready to move out from Fort Bragg, N.C., with catastrophic natural disasters 11 2 that are likely to increase 104 on Sunday, the day before the hurricane hit." The reality is due to climate change, 11 3 and bis handling of the military during that Bush chose not to use the regular military, which could have such crises should be direct, immediate, and scalable. Like the been used legally as noted above, for fear of usurping Bianco's United States, China needs a general interpretation of the 1947 objections and authority. Nairn Kapucu, Director of the School Constitution under Chapter IV Article 43 in such a way as to of Public Administration at the University of Central Florida, allow this action to occur directly from Xi , without the need states, to go through other formal steps. 11 4 Xi has stated that there

Fall 2019 9 needs to be "better integration between the military and civilian same assertiveness to reshape the military for better domestic sectors."115 Through the process of modernization of its military responses to earthquakes, floods, typhoons, and other natural with a focus on better relations with the civilian sectors, 11 6 direct disasters. 13 1 In the process, China will need to streamline getting use of C hina's massive armed forces during a natural disaster these resources to those who need it most. For this policy to have needs to be further streamlined. As with the proposal for the the highest impact, China must include a willingness to forge United States, Xi 's determination, much like Trump's, is critical bonds with other nations, 132 allowing alliances and necessary in the process of assistance for natural disasters: "China's reso urces both to flow into China during these events and to disaster management system contains no law-based presidential allow resources to be given to other nations when catastrophic disaster declarations; however, the national leader's in struction natural disasters affect them. In this way, Xi's goal of having a (pishi in Chinese) play a similar role in disaster declarations." globalist view may be furthered as he champions the broader use 11 7 China's leader should be able to put large numbers of of his military and other assistance to countries around the world military personnel 11 8 very quickly into a given area. Under Xi's in a show of good will and transparency in friendship during leadership, it is imperative that such actions are taken sooner times of natural disasters affecting other countries. Both Japan than later, given the global climate changes that are causing far and the Philippines, which are regularly hit with such disasters, more dramatic events to take place. 11 9 could benefit with stronger pledges from China regarding these Xi's legacy and reputation depend in part on how he manages resources, as could the United States. Therefore, for the benefit future disasters. As with the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the of everyone involved, Chinese leadership under Xi needs to legitimacy of China's government and its elites' response should make changes to its laws 133 to allow a greater and more direct not be questioned after such an event. 120 Xi is the chairman of response to natural disa ters that ensures the more effective use the Central Military Commission and one of the most powerful of its military.134 leaders in Modern Chinese history; therefore, as he continues to change and update the constitution and modernize the military, J A PAN dramatic changes need to be made to the way to which natural Japan continues to be struck by natural disasters, with the disasters are responded. 12 1 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that caused the Fukushima Daiichi Supplies - bedding material, canvas, water, medical and Accident135 being the worst in its modern hi story. Yet, with other basic needs - remain vital to the military in combat and this natural di saster and the accident at the nuclear power plant aid situations. The Chinese military mobilized during the that fol lowed, the mi Iit ary could ha ve done a better job with 2008 Wenchaun earthquake, 122 but they faced a general lack supplying aid to those who needed it most. 136 The leadership of coordination in getting the necessary supplies to those who under Abe should modify its existing laws to accommodate a needed them most. 123 To prevent thi s haphazard di stribution of changing reality that more typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis, and aid, China needs to implement a policy 124 that allows for the pre other catastrophic natural disasters will occur globally, and, as a positioning of food, water, tarps, and medical supplies so that direct result, nations need a more streamlined chain of command once a catastrophic natural di saster takes place, the supplies are structure in place to allow fo r large-scale domestic military easily available to give to those most in need. This policy should responses to these disasters. allow for the immediate use of those materials once they are Japan 's constitution, which was formulated after the end of called upon by Xi, members of his cabinet, or other top-ranking World War ll in 1947, had a pacifist clause: Chapter 2, Article 9 party members. Zhang and Chen state, "At present, there is " Renunciation of War" states, no complete emergency materia l reserve system in China, and Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on although the central reserve system is established, local reserve justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce system is seriously insufficient. Therefore, in order to bring war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or the materials reserve into the orbit of legalization material use of force as means of sett! ing international di sputes. reserve rules and regulations should be improved." 125 Given the number, magnitude, and lack of preparedness for earthquakes ln order to accomplish the aim of the preceding throughout China, 126 this author recommends that every nation paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other should have large quantities of reserve material such as water, war potential, will never be maintained. The right of food, medicine, etc. that can be quickly di stributed with the belligerency of the state will not be recognized.13 7 assistance of the active-duty military to those who need those Abe's recent actions regarding the use of the military as it supplies. Such changes to each nation's laws should allow this relates to Article 9 suggests a more aggressive reinterpretation 127 to occur smoothly and with the direct use of the military. of the use of Japan's armed forces.138 This reinterpretation 128 As Xi moves toward a likely reelection in 2023 and the should extend to allow the military to be used for more domestic 129 continued centralization of hi s power, he must consider the and international aid purposes, shifting to allow them to be ramifications of catastrophic natural disasters and the need to used effectively when natural disasters strike. This "collective use the military as first responders when they occur. He has security" 139 will ensure a better chance of surviva l during the come into office with a goal of being far more assertive when it next di saster. Such assistance - while not required - will ensure comes to foreign policy, 130 thus he should be willing to use this

10 Sustainable Development Law & Policy a safer world in which countries put lives ahead of nationalistic should include the mutual transfer of aid during natural disasters, views to form a greater level of cooperation in which countless thereby forging relationships based upon mutual respect and lives around the world could benefit. need. Given the sheer volume of U.S. troops in Japan, the allied Japan is moving forward with a stronger defense policy nations need clearer laws governing when and how to use these regarding China and other nations, which in and of itself may joint forces to assist those most in need during natural disasters . be mutually beneficial given the need for a stronger military The 201 l earthquake and resulting tsunami proved how vital to address any number of issues it now faces. Singh argues such assistance can be in promoting peace through mutual aid. that "a strong Japan is actually a source of regional stability. Talmadge explains, Its democratic identity, the resilient pacifism within Japanese society, and the continued robustness of the U.S.-Japan alliance Just one year after tensions over American military support this conclusion."149 Therefore, as Japan moves forward bases forced out a prime minister, a U.S. relief mission with its goals of modernizing its military and securing strategic after the earthquake and tsunami is remaking Japanese ties to other nations, support from these nations should never be opinions. far behind as it deals with issues concerning natural disasters. Roughly 20,000 U.S. troops have been mobilized in With current policies unchanged, assistance from Japan's "Operation Tomodachi," or "Friend." It is the biggest and other nations' militaries (for example during the 2011 bilateral humanitarian mission the U.S. has conducted earthquake) was incomplete and inadequate in many respects. 150 in Japan, its most important ally in Asia. Japan needs to reinterpret Article 9 of its constitution to allow for the direct and immediate use of its armed forces (even over the As logistics gradually improve, U.S. troops have been 151 objections of local politicians ) so that in cases of catastrophic moving farther into hard-hit zones and providing tons natural disasters, as illustrated by an article highlighting a recent of relief supplies and badly needed manpower to help 152 drill , such reinterpretation should allow for Abe or future the hundreds of thousands of Japanese whose lives prime ministers to have ground forces in the areas affected were shattered in the March 11 disaster. .. . immediately, to-scale, and under a command-and-control person About 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed throughout who wields the power to use the military in conjunction with Japan under a mutual security treaty signed in the other forms of assistance, including the acceptance of aid from 1960s. Tokyo strongly supports the alliance, because it other nations' mi I itaries. 153 To aid this effort, Japan's role as saves Japan money on defense and serves as a powerful leader in cell phone use should consider better implementation deterrent force in the region, particularly as China's of social media154 to help coordinate its military, to inform the military strength and economic clout rise.140 local population of where and when to expect assistance, and to direct the leadership of Japan through various applications on the The bi-lateral agreement between the United States and overall needs during the crises. Leveraging relationships with Japan 14 1 should include an updated version to allow for disaster developed allies and its technological superiority, Abe could relief during times of natural disasters. increase his nation's ability to respond to the pending disasters Such agreements should exist with other nations142 allied arising from global warming. with Japan so that when disaster strikes assistance may be given from the militaries around the world. Jn recent times, Japan THE REPUBLlC OF THE PHILIPPINES has forged a stronger relationship with the Philippines over Few other areas have been hit with as many typhoons 143 issues concerning China's access to the South China Sea. in recent history as the Philippines. 15 5 A nation with over As this relationship grows, the two nations need to include a 7,000 islands, 156 the Philippines continues to face this trend formal resolution of bilateral assistance for each country in the of increasingly intense typhoon landfalls with a growing event of a natural disaster. While such partnership is important population, resulting in additional problems when natural regarding the use of militaries and other resources to combat disasters strike. Under the leadership ofDuterte, the Philippines China's rise in the region, it should also be modified to include has moved politically further away from the United States and the use of the military to assist in times of crises so that each toward China and other countries in Asia. One major change has country may benefit. At the same time, Japan needs to have a come from refocusing its military role from fighting the growing 144 "balancing strategy" between itself and China regarding drug problems that have plagued the island nation to improved its defense, going beyond matters concerning the Senkaku military assistance during natural disasters, just like the other 145 146 islands and the ongoing issues in the South China Sea countries discussed so far. Disaster aid has come from many to focus on issues concerning bilateral relations during major countries, often in the form of assistance from nongovernmental 147 natural disasters. For example, China gave Japan significant agencies. 157 Such assistance should be accepted but coordinated amounts of aid following the 2011 earthquake, including by the president, who should also coordinate the military assistance from its military forces: "It's sending $4.5 million during such disasters. The 1987 Constitution 158 establishes the worth of rescue materials, including blankets and flashlights. president as the Commander in Chief and mandates that the 148 Beijing has promised more, if necessary." Such agreements military remain under civilian control. 159 Duterte has continued

Fall 2019 11 to remain close to hi s military, 160 and therefore the greater use of While th e Philippines may always struggle distributing it during natural di sasters should not constitute a major reform of assistance from other nations, Duterte must address preparati ons the poli cies put into place. The goal here, as with other nations fo r the yearly typhoon season as quickl y as possibl e. Duterte has addressed, would be to streamline control of the military during chosen th e path of moving away from economi c and military natural disasters by Duterte to ensure a better and more effecti ve assistance fro m the United States and toward oth er nati ons use of it with the ultimate goal of saving li ves and ensuring a like China, 167 even while multiple nati ons within the Pacific quicker return to normal after a catastrophic natural di saster. region struggle over how best to contain th e perceived threat The Philippines has been faced w ith the devastating effects of an increasin gly aggressive Chinese military in the South of typhoons that regul arly come ashore a long with the impacts Chin a Sea. 168 Duterte should consider maintaining the balance that the storm surges bring with them. 161 The struggle to hi s nation needs between their available alliances - in cluding coordinate aid is often centered on how best to streamline the his close relationships to China, the United States, Japan, and command-and-control operations of its military during th ose A ustralia, to name a few - in an effort to impro ve disaster catastrophic natural di sasters. Similarly to the Insurrecti on Act assistance when typhoons and oth er natu ra l disasters strike hi s all owing the U.S. president to order military troops to devastated country. areas following a natural disaster, the Philippine President Part of the issues fo r those affected by a natural di saster has power under the constitution that addresses the use of the is how soon they are informed about the event in questi on 169 military during times of declared martial law. 162 Such use will and how qui ckl y th at in fo rmation is relayed to those running all ow fo r the immediate, di rect, and sustained use of its own the emergency management side. 170 Working at the local level military during times of typhoons, storm surges, and oth er through community leadership 17 1 as well as the continued natural disasters. ass istance from abroad 172 matters during times of natu ra l Military assistance may also come from oth er nati ons, too. di sasters. The Philippines' leadership continues to struggle with As Yamada points out, " ln November 20 l 3, in the aftermath and adapt to ongoin g disaster response. Salazar poi nts out, of Typhoon Yo landa/Haiyan, humanitarian a id and disaster In response to the frequency of natura l and man-made respo nse (HA DR) were de livered by the U.S. military." 163 di sasters in the country, in February 20 10 Congress According a collection of internati onal m ilitary leaders and passed Repu blic Act 1012 1 (RA I 0 12 l) whi ch aim ed to scho lars, regarding Typhoon Yo landa/Haiyan, strengthen the Philippine Di saster Ri sk Reducti on and With over $86 million in total U.S. assistance, the U.S. Management System. The new law is important in that military response efforts comprised more th an 13,400 it signal ed a paradigm shi ft from emphasizing di saster military personnel, 66 aircraft, and 12 naval vessels, response to risk redu cti on, a principle whi ch experts which deli vered over 2,495 tons of reli ef supplies and unanimously agree to be th e best way to prepare fo r evacuated more th an 2 1,000 people .. . di saster and reduce its impact. 173

Many humanitari an aid experts and military leaders The reality is that the Philippines needs to address the noted that c ivil -milita ry coordinati on was some of pre paration for upcoming typhoons, storm surges, and oth er the best they had seen during th e response to Super natura l di sasters. Scholars fro m th e Philippine's uni versity Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines fro m November to system, point out th at "The government's problem of how to December 20 13. In total, the United States participated coordinate and manage th e distribution of re li ef goods and the in re li ef efforts together w ith 57 other nati ons and 29 provision of much needed services underscores the signifi cant foreign militari es. Specificall y, the USAID Offi ce of role other agencies pl ay in di saster response." 174 What is needed Fore ig n Disaster Assistance (O FDA), U.S. Pac ific are cl earer plans and laws fo r how best to use those in vo lved, Command (USPACOM), and the U.S. Embassy in especiall y response teams comprised of the mil itary and those M anila demonstrated clear understanding of th eir coordinating th e teams. roles and responsibilities as evide nced by the ir Duterte faces further complicati ons preparing fo r natu ra l effective coordination. M oreover, U.S. Government di sasters in areas of th e Philippines where arm ed conflicts entities provided assistance that refl ected th eir unique continue. The continued in surgency175 that has pl agued areas capa bilities appropriate ly scaled th roug hout th e th ro ughout the Philippines may cast doubt on how effecti ve ly response phase. 164 a id can be given in th ose areas most affected. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are the best equipped to handl e In the case of Typhoon Yo landa/Ha iyan, U.S . assistance natu ra l disasters in areas affected by unrest due to their size and and coordinati on played a pivotal role ensuring the security readiness, but they should do so in a manner that is streamlined and wellbeing of those affected by the storm 's damage. 165 The and effecti ve so th at th e greatest amount of food 176 and other Philippine military, however, has been critic ized fo r its slow fo rms of aid can be given quickl y to those most in need. The response to such disasters, 166 and th erefore the improved use reality is that such events affect worn en, 177 children,178 and the of its military throug h a streamlined process w ill benefit th e poor 179 di sproportionately. It is important to understand th e president's regime as well as the citi zens' li velihoods. wellbeing of those affected by the typhoons 180 and other natu ra l

12 Sustainable Development Law & Policy disasters. Such aid can be given not only by the AFP but by military troops can be used in times of natural disasters so that other nations under the doctrine of "Responsibility to Protect" assistance can be given quickly, to scale, and in coordination ("R2P") 18 1 in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations with other nations. The smaller nations in the ASEAN will ("ASEAN").182 As Puspita points out, more clearly see "the need for a strong and firm cooperative ASEAN effort in developing resilience against disasters - Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Philippines are the most vulnerability is high, disasters are getting stronger and more vulnerable countries to natural disaster with internal frequent, and uniting small countries is prudent in pooling conflict in Southeast Asia. These countries should not resources." 191 The Philippines and others ASEAN nations only maintain state sovereignty, but also recognize the need to coordinate better reactions to natural disasters and to humanitarian aid to the natural disaster. In order to use their militaries and different forms of assistance in a more apply the R2P doctrine to the victims of natural disaster streamlined manner. Unity is key to this goal 's success. in an armed conflict area, the role and capability of the What remains to be seen is whether the government of ASEAN should be strengthened in the local, national, the Philippines has sufficiently addressed the climate change 192 regional, and international level. 183 that continues to affect its country through more devastating Such assistance should allow for closer bonds between the typhoons whose potency will likely only increase in the future. Philippines and other nations regarding the giving of assistance As Pauline Eadie, Assistant Professor of Social Sciences to those areas most susceptible to insurgency and armed conflict. at the University of Nottingham, points out in regards to The use of the AFP in coordination with other nations' militaries resilience in the face of increasing typhoons and other disasters, must play an important role with advanced preparation so that "Leadership is . . . an important issue for resilience. Resilience assistance can be given more quickly. Eastin adds that "the is about building both stability and the conditions necessary for military's role in distributing relief supplies and providing successful adaptation; therefore, it is important that systems security escorts to humanitarian agencies can legitimize military of command and control are visionary and efficient." 193 Such presence in conflict zones, facilitate trust-building in local preparations must include the use of the foreign and domestic communities, and enhance intelligence gathering, the impact militaries and a streamlining of such use during times of crises of which can assist counterinsurgency efforts." 184 Cooperation caused by natural disasters. It must also include the leadership of between the AFP and locals may allow coordination within each Duterte. group during times of crisis. 185 Such cooperation will allow the President Duterte faces a changing world in which the aid to get to those most in need, while setting aside issues related environment will likely play a decisive role in balancing political to ideology and politics. alliances. The best option is to streamline the use of the military, Assistance under the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster alongside the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Management and Emergency Response ("AADMER") signed Council, to ensure that assistance is given in a quick, efficient, in July of2005 provides a framework for assistance for and abundant level. The assistance from the military can come countries throughout Southeast Asia including the Philippines under provisions in the Constitution concerning Martial Law. during times of disasters. 186 As the ASEAN web site points TheAFP should be able to be mobilized with short notice to give out, aid from a pre-arranged site to ensure the continued survival of AADMER serves as a common platform those most affected by a natural disaster. While the military has and regional policy backbone for disaster been active in establishing peace through Duterte's fight against management in theASEAN region. The illegal drugs, they should also be given the additional task of AADMER Work Programme outlines a keeping peace in the case of natural disasters. Such use would detailed structure of activities of the region's ensure that Duterte's legacy be marked by the love and care that disaster management priorities over five-year he gave to his people in times of need rather than just a brutal periods. The ASEAN Committee on Disaster fight against drugs. Management (ACDM) provides oversight to the implementation of the Work Programme CONCLUSION and reports directly to the Ministers in charge Perhaps few other issues should be more important to a of Disaster Management, who also serve as nation's leaders than keeping the citizens of their countries safe Conference of the Parties (COP). 187 from harm. In today's environment, where climate change is affecting the very fabric of society, events around the increasingly ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency globalized world are affecting nations in ways never seen before Response (AADMER) 188 addresses the use of foreign military in isolation. Climate change is affecting the environment to the personnel but limits those outside of ASEAN. 189 Simm point where typhoons, hurricanes, and cyclones will increase notes that "AADMER may well not be the most appropriate globally. In addition to the damage from global warming, instrument to address the role of military assistance in disaster earthquakes have also devastated these countries. To overcome response .. . ." 190 Therefore, the Philippine government should the current lack of coordination during these disasters, regular make laws to clarify how and when domestic and foreign militaries for each country should be more actively engaged in

Fall 2019 13 and used during these emergencies to ensure the survivability of streamlining: that the United States interpret the Insurrection Act those in many countries in the world. Such assistance should be through an executive order all owing federal troops to be armed streamlined so that access can be immediate and pre-positioned and used during national disasters, all owing FEMA a more aid (such as water, food, and canvas) can be given with little or stable environment to work within. no delay. While this paper has looked at fo ur specific developed China should look to its own constitution for guidance countries as examples, the basic argument of using active duty as should Abe, as both leaders have chosen to move more military more aggressively during times of catastrophic natural aggressively in the usage of their respective militaries and the disasters can be more broadly interpreted to apply to militaries interpretation of their respective roles as allowed within their and the countries they assist at a global scale. constitutions. The new changes should allow for using their The leadership of Trump, Xi , Abe, and Duterte should militaries for domestic purposes under the direct leadersh ip look to their laws to examine ways that w ill best all ow for the of Xi and Abe, respectively. Fi nally, Duterte should use an streamlined usage of their armed forces during catastrophic interpretation of his constitution regarding martial law to all ow events caused by climate change. With a simple phone call , for direct and immediate usage of his military as it relates to the leader of any nation should be able to put large numbers national disasters. Based on these actionable items, other nation s of men and women in the armed forces to use during natura l can also determine how best to modify their laws to join an disasters when people's lives are at risk. Such changes wi ll international community concerned with mutual aid during require modifications to or reinterpretations of their laws. This the coming days of in creasing natural disasters for the benefit paper suggests specific interventions that pave the way to such ofall. ·

ENDNOTES

Ja mes R. Holmes, Everything You Know About Clausewitz Is Wrong, Tm 829, 829-42 (Nov. 201 7) (assessing the relati onships between China, Japan, Dr PLOMAT (N ov. 12, 2014), hll ps://thed iplomal.co m/2014/ J I/everything-you a nd the US). know-about-clausewitz-is-wrong/ (expla ining the nexus between war and 11 See Titli Basu, Debating Security in Japan, 30 KOREAN J. OF DEF. po litics). ANALYS IS 545, 545 -47 ( Dec. 201 8). 2 See generally Da kota L. Wood (editor), 2019 Index of US. Military 12 See World Wa r II History (updated May 16, 201 9), https:/lwww.history. S treng th, T HE H ER ITAGE Fou D. (2019), http://tbf-g raphics.s3.amazonaws. com/topics/world-war-ii/wo rld-war-ii-history (last accessed Oct. 2 1, 201 9). c om /201 8/201 9%201 ndex%20of%20M i I it ary%20St rength/Secti on% 20 13 See Hy un-Wook K im, S ubstantiating the Cohesion ofth e Post- Cold PDFs/2019_ 1nd exOfUSM ii itaryStreng th .pdf (reporting on th e in crease in War US-Japan Alliance, 65 A UST. J. OF INT'L AFFAIRS 340, 340-59 (June 2011 ) milita ry spending since 201 6). (ex pl aining the US-Japan a lliance) . 3 See generally Sam Go ld smith, US. Conventional Access Strategy: 14 See Lee Hudson Tesli k, Backgrounder -Japan and Its Military, CO UNC IL D eny ing China a Con ventional First-Strike Capability, 72 AVAL WAR COLL o FoREIGN RELAT IONS, (April 13, 2006), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ R EV. 41 , 41-7 1 (Spring 201 9) (a nalyz ing C hina's mi litary capac it y compa red japan-and-its-military. See also Brad Lendon, Resurgent Japan military to the United States); China Military Power, Defense Intelligence Agency 'can stand toe to toe with any body', C N, (Dec. 7, 2016), https://www.cnn . (201 9), https://w ww.d ia. mi J/ Portals/27/ Docu ments/ Ne ws/ M i Iitar y%20 com/20 J6 / J 2/06/asia/japan-m i Iit ary-pearl-harbor-an n iversary/index.htm I Powe r%20Publicati ons/C hina_ Military _ Power_ Fl A L_ 5M B_ 201 901 03.pdf (explaining Japa nese military capabilities). (discussing C hina's g rowing mi lita ry capabilities). 15 See generally, Richard J. Samuels and Corey Wallace, lmroduction: 4 Weiz hen Tan, China's Military and Economic Power 'Cannot Be Denied ' Japan 's Pivot in Asia, 94 INT'L A FFA IRS (Ju ly I, 2018), 703-04 (ex pl a ining how and US 'Has to Make Room ', CN BC (Sept. 17, 201 8), https://www.cnbc. Trump's demoni zation of Japan is alienating). co m /201 8/09/ l 8/ch ina-m i I itary- is-g rowi ng-us-must-ma ke-room-eurasia 16 See U. S. Forces, Japan The Cornerstone of Peace and Security in the g roups-ka plan. htm I (discussing China's grow ing milita ry power). Pacific, Department of De fen se, https://www.usfj .mil/About-USFJ/ (last 5 U. S. Department of De fense, Annual Rep ort to Cong ress: Military v isited May 19, 2019) (showing large U.S. military presence in Japan). and Security De velopments Involving the People's Republic a/China 2019, 17 Willia m Pesek, How Abe Is Outsmarting Trump on Trade, POLITI CO i ( May 2, 2019), https: //media.defense.gov/2019/ May/02/2002 127082/-1 /- (May 02, 2019), https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/02/ 1/ 1/2019_ C H lNA_ M 1LITA RY _ POWE R_ R EPORT.pdf (discussing shifting dona ld-t rump-trade-sh i nzo-a be-226764 . g lo bal milita ry powers). 18 Wan g Xiaokui, Historical Shifts in Remembering China 's "Nanjing 6 i d at i. Massacre", 50 C HI NESE STU DI ES IN HI STO RY 324 (2017). Alex Lockie , How the World's Largest Military Stacks Up to the US 19 Editors, Nanjing Massacre, ENCYC LOPEDI A BRI TANN ICA, https://www. Armed Forces, Bus. INS IDER (Aug. 5, 201 6), https://www.newstimes.com/ britannica.com/event anjing-Massacre (last visited May 20, 2019) techno logy/ bus i nessi n sider/article/ H ow-the-world-s-la rgest-m i Iitar y-stacks- (defining the Massacre as the " mass killing and ravaging of Chinese citizens u p-to-the-7218456. ph p; See generally Our Story, U.S. Department of De fe nse and capitul ated soldiers by soldiers of the Japanese Imperial Army afte r its (last v is ited May 14, 2019) https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/ (addressing seiz ure of Nanjing, China, on December 13, 1937, during the Sino-Japanese the s ize o f C hinese military personnel in comparison to American forces). Wa r that preceded World War U"). 8 See generally Renato C ruz De C astro, 21" Century Japan-Philippines 2° China Marks Nanking Massacre's 80th Anniversary, USA TODAY Strategic Partnership: Constraining China's Expansion in the South China (Dec. 13, 2017), hllps://www.usatoday. com/story/news/world/20 17/ J 2/J 3/ Sea, 44 A s ian Affa irs: An American Review 31, 31-41 ( May201 7) (di scussing china-mark s-nan ki ng-massac res-80th-a n n iversary/949629001 /. the s ize o f the militaries of the Philippines and Japa n). 21 See James J. Przystup, Japan-China Relations: Happy 40th Anniversa1y: 9 See generally Bj0rn E.M. Grnnning, Operational and Industrial Military "Fuggetaboulit!", 14 COMPARATIVE CONN ECT IONS 11 9 (May 201 2) (describing In tegration: Extending the Frontiers of the Japan- US Alliance, 94 INT'L increasing te nsions between C hina and Japan). A FFA IR S 755, 755-72 (Ju ly 2018) (explaining the chang ing alliance between the 22 Ryotaro Nakamaru, Abe Eyes Diplomatic Win with Xi US a nd Japan). Jinping Visit but Faces Balancing Act Between China and ro See generally Ro emary Foot, Power Transitions and Great Power Management: Three Decades a/China- Japan- US Relations, 30 PAC IFIC R EV. continued on page 33

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