NIWA Review 18-21 Notable Events 21-31 Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 31 Pick of the Clips 32-63

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 1 ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 155 Summer 2018-2019

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 155 Summer 2018-2019 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page Foreword from our President 3 Conference 2018 4 Kidson Medal , Photo competition 5 AGM minutes 6-17 Spring: NIWA review 18-21 Notable events 21-31 Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 31 Pick of the clips 32-63

Your Committee President: Michael Martens Immediate Past President: Sylvia Nichol Secretary: Katrina Richards Treasurer: Gregor Macara Circulation Manager: Lisa Murray Website Liaison: Stefanie Kremser Journal Editor: Nava Fedaeff Newsletter Editor: Bob McDavitt Auckland VP: Petra Pearce Wellington VP: [vacant] Christchurch VP: Jiawei Zhang Dunedin VP: Daniel Kingston Hamilton VP: Tim Gunn General Committee: Luke Sutherland-Stacey, Mike Revell HydroSoc Liaison: Charles Pearson Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 3 Dear members of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand

In December at our AGM, I became the new President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. Let me tell you a bit more about myself: I was born in Germany and lived for over 10 years in Hamburg. I have studied meteorology at the University of Hamburg and finished with a Master’s Degree of Atmos- pheric Science in 2012. The same year, I joined the German Weather Service as a forecast meteorologist and then in August 2013 the MetService here in New Zealand. I’m currently working as a Lead Forecaster at the MetService in Wellington and enjoy forecasting the New Zealand weather, which always presents itself with new and interesting challenges. I joined the Met Society committee in 2014 and have been an active member of the committee since. I’m very grateful to be offered the opportunity to lead the Met Society for the next two years and will continue to shape and support the important work of the committee.

A very successful year lies behind us. Our annual joint conference together with the Hydrological Society was the biggest annual conference for us so far, with nearly 340 participants. It was a great opportunity to catch up with colleagues from across the different fields of earth system science. The 3 keynote presentations covered 3 different aspects of the Hydrological Cycle in Changing Times, the theme of the conference. Bronwyn Hayward gave a very striking talk about global climate change and why we must act now to prevent a global disaster. John Crouch talked about the microphysical aspects of the hydrological cycle using polarimetric radar on the West Coast of the South Island. Simon Cox talked about the effect of climate change on the availability of freshwater and the effect on the hydrological cycle. I per- sonally would like to thank the Hydrological Society for the great and seamless collaboration and the organising committee, consisting of members from both societies, for all their hard work to make the conference a memorable and very enjoyable experience. Moreover, we have successfully completed the migration of our website onto a new platform and our membership remains stable and healthy, with several students having joined in the last year. Also, we have formed a subcommittee to look at ways how to engage better with students and to formalise the process of grants we offer as a society. The subcommittee has already delivered some tangible recom- mendations, which will make the society fit for the future and continue to attract new members.

I would like to use this opportunity to thank you all, our valued members, for being part of a lively community of atmospheric scientists, forecasters, and weather&climate enthusiasts. You are the reason that the Meteorological Society remains a trustworthy source of data and information on climate, climate change and weather. I'm looking forward to helping bring our exciting new ideas to enhance our membership and to further improve our engagement with the community into fruition. I wish you all a very happy New Year and all the best for the year 2019.

Kind regards, Michael Martens A photo of our New President at our recent joint conference is on the next page

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 4 Joint Conference with Met Society & Hydrological Society at Christchurch in Dec: This proved to be a great success in terms of sharing science and network- ing with fellow scientists.

NZ Met Society new President, Michael Martens, at our recent conference.

This was the largest joint conference between the MetSoc and the HydroSoc yet, with nearly 340 participants. It was a great opportunity to catch up with colleagues from across the different fields of earth system science. The oral presentations were organised in 5 parallel streams and there were several poster sessions for over 50 post- ers. The keynote presentations covered 3 different aspects of the Hydrological Cycle in Changing Times, the theme of the conference. Bronwyn Hayward gave a very striking talk about global climate change and why we have to act now to prevent a global disaster. John Crouch talked about the microphysical aspects of the hydrological cycle using polarimetric radar on the West Coast of the South Island. Simon Cox talked about the effect of climate change on the availability of freshwater and the effect on the hydrological cycle.

MetSoc committee members (from left to right): James Renwick, Lisa Murray, Syl- via Nichol, Michael Martens, Luke Sutherland-Stacey, Nava Fedaeff and Mike Revell.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 5 KIDSON Medal announcement AT the AGM of the NZ Met Society (as part of the recent conference) it was announced by the Met Society committee that KEVIN TRENBERTH has been selected to be awarded the 2018 Kidson Medal for his paper “How often does it really rain?” (DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17- 0107.1). The paper uses a new near-global satellite and observed surface precipitation data set at high spatial (0.25 degrees) and temporal (hourly) resolution to address the question of over what fraction of time or over what fraction of space is it actually raining at the same time. It draws many useful inferences about the frequency of precipitation, including the impacts of global warming.

2018 Photo Competition In 2018 we asked on our Facebook page for anyone to post photos showing how weather is related to activities (such as tramping, driving, sport etc). Around 100 people clicked on the post , there were 9 engagements, 5 photos were en- tered and 61 votes . There were three prizes awarded (MetService 2019 Weath- er Calendars) as follows :

Wnner Elenaor Treadwell Title : Rata in the clouds Description : Copland Track tramp. The clouds cleared whilst crossing the bridge to reveal the Copland river and the Rata (on the left) This image has been chosen to feature on the front and back pages of the NZ Met Society publication “WEATHER AND CLIMATE” Vol 38 (2018)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 6 Runners up:

Megan Robertson Dean Robertson Title : After the Southerly Snowdrive Description: Winter at Lake Emma Dodging snowflakes driving (inland from Ashburton) between Christ and Ashburton. Thanks to everyone who got involved. We plan to open another contest soon

Minutes for the 39th Annual General Meeting of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand 5 December 2018, Christchurch Meeting began at 5 pm; Chaired by Sylvia Nichol, minutes by Katrina Richards. 1. Attendance Sylvia Nichol, Katrina Richards, Jim Salinger, Tony Bromley, Sally Gray, Errol Lewthwaite, Trevor Carey-Smith, Andrew Tait, Shane Bilish, Daithi Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, Daniel Kingston, Michael Martens, Mike Revell, Lisa Murray, Jiawei Zhang, Brett Mullan, Dave Pollard, James Renwick, John Nicol, Luke Sutherland- Stacey, Ben Liley, Seth Carrier, Kate Prebble, Nava Fedaeff. 2. Apologies Cliff Revell, Stefanie Kremser, Neil Gordon, Kevin Trenberth, John Maunder, Bri- an Giles, Bob McDavitt, Matt Ruglys, Petra Pearce, Richard Turner 3. Confirmation of minutes of previous AGM. Motion that “The minutes of the previous AGM, held on the 13 November 2017 be accepted as a true and correct record” Proposed Sylvia Nichol/Seconded Tony Bromley–carried 4. Matters Arising 4.1. Committee to address travel grants to early career scientists and criteria for these at the next meeting. Committee to report on this to the next AGM. Good progress has been made. The subcommittee made working on student grants a priority and is working on grants for early career scientists. A report will be made at the 2019 AGM. 4.2. Committee to look at ways to drawn down our cash supply. A “cloud” poster is being designed by Bob McDavitt for bulk printing. It will be distributed in 2019. Funding for travel grants for students has been increased. Support for early career scientists is at the planning stage.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 7 4.3. Committee to consider other reductions in membership fees, as well as policies for reduced conference fees, for example, for retired members or the unwaged. Committee to come to an agreement during the year and bring a motion for discussion to the next AGM. The committee has discussed this matter. Subscriptions are already low compared to other societies. Our policy is to not introduce additional classes of membership. Our preferred approach is to spend more, rather than bring in less income. There was a brief discussion from the floor. This year’s HydroSoc/MetSoc Con- ference was relatively expensive. There wasn’t an advertised rate for retired/ unwaged. It will make a difference to individual members if we offer financial support for future conferences. The committee will work on this during 2019. Motion that “during 2019 the committee develop and launch a scheme to support members who are retired/unwaged to attend conferences hosted or co-hosted by MetSoc”. Proposed Katrina Richards/Seconded Sally Gray—carried 4.4. Sylvia to send certificates to the new Honorary Members. Katrina Richards to write article about them for Weather and Climate—Tasks completed and Sylvia has received “thank you” emails from the new Honorary Members. 4.5. Secretary to circulate next year’s Charity Performance Report to members prior to the AGM, so that edits can be suggested (Secretary, Katrina) Our “Mission, Structure and Operations” and the three bullet points that de- scribe our “Service Performance Outcomes” was circulated to members on 19 November 2018 for comment. This is the wording submitted to Charity Services in our last report. The Secretary was unable to circulate the full report because she first needs the Treasurer and Auditor/Financial Reviewer’s reports and those arrive near the date of the AGM. 5. President’s report (President, Sylvia Nichol) It is my great pleasure to present an annual report to the AGM of the Meteoro- logical Society of New Zealand. This AGM marks the end of my two-year term as President. I would like to start by thanking the committee members from this year and last year for their hard work and support, which has made my role much easier. I will now summarise the activities of the society over the past year. Meetings: The committee met four times this year via teleconference, and also sorted out issues in between meetings via email conversations. I also attended two Royal Society Constituent Organisation meetings during the year. These meetings are a good opportunity to network with representatives from similar societies to ours. Website: As I noted at last year’s AGM, we had begun the transfer of the content from the existing (old) website to the new WordPress one. The transfer is very nearly complete, with just a few very large pdf files of past Weather & Climate articles to load up (which we’re working on). It is very pleasing to report that the new website has been up and running since

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 8

July, which was in time to handle the 2018/19 membership subscriptions. Our subscriptions for members who are on email are now handled through the website, with the website sending out reminders when a member’s subscription needs to be renewed. Using this system, subscriptions can now be paid by credit card, which is particularly useful for our overseas members, or by direct credit to our bank. As an aside, our members who aren’t on email are still managed manually by our Circulation Manager using the MS Access database. We have just realised that we have a large number (~90) of members on our website system who have not renewed their membership. We’ll be contacting each of these members to find out if they had a problem re-newing their membership, and to work out how we can help them, as our members are important to us and we don’t want to lose them. I know that some of these are members from NIWA who do want to remain members, but have assumed that the old system of bulk membership payment was still operating. The incorporation of the membership database into the website proved to be a much bigger task than was originally envisaged, and hence the website project cost more than planned. I feel it has been money well-spent as it reduces some of the administrative workload for our Treasurer and Circulation Manager. The new site has a cleaner and more modern appearance than the old one, and more importantly, we have full functionality with it. Full credit goes to our Web Liaison, Stefanie Kremser, for seeing this through. Membership: As mentioned above, we have a large number of members on our website system who have not renewed their membership, so I don’t have a definitive membership total at the moment. We’ll be working to contact these members to see how we can help them, as we don’t want to lose these members. On the positive side, since offering the reduced student subscription rate, we have 5 new student members. With the changes that we are making to our student support (which I’ll discuss later), I am very confident that we will further increase our student membership. Edward Kidson Medal: This year we called for nominations for the Edward Kidson Medal, which recog- nises an outstanding meteorological and/or climate-related paper originating from a New Zealand-based or affiliated author. Calls for nominations are made every two years. We received two high quality nominations. The medal process followed the guidelines that were developed by Sam Dean and presented at the 2015 AGM. The medal sub-committee was set up, with the members being James Renwick, Mike Revell and me. Each of the two papers was sent to two leading experts in the respective fields. Taking those reviews into account, we came to the unani- mous decision to award the 2018 Kidson medal to Kevin Trenberth, for his paper “How often does it really rain?” (Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 289-298, February 2018; https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0107.1). Kevin is currently in the USA, but will be moving to Auckland in 2019, so we will present the medal to him in New Zealand in 2019.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 9

Journal: The 2017 volume of Weather & Climate (Volume 37) was published in November 2017, in time for our Dunedin conference. This year’s edition, Volume 38, went to the printers last week, and may be available at this conference. At last year’s AGM I reported that Weather &Climate had recently been included in the JSTOR archive. We have recently signed an agreement with EBSCO, so that our past journals will also be included in their catalogue. With Weather &Climate’s increasing visibility, I encourage everyone to consider submitting to our journal. Newsletter: Thanks once again to Bob McDavitt, for continuing to produce our quarterly MetSoc newsletters. Regional meetings: Over the last 12 months there were 13 advertised seminars, mostly to the Auck- land, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin groups. Thanks to our Regional Vice-Presidents for doing this. Conferences: Last year’s conference was held in Dunedin in November, and was very successful - attracting about 65 participants and financially breaking even. It was about 20 years since we last held our conference in Dunedin, so it was good to return there. I would particularly like to thank Daniel Kingston, who led the organising committee. We also had a reasonable representation at the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) conference, which was combined with the Inter- national Conference for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, in Sydney in February. I’m aware of three of our committee members (funded by their own organisations) who attended, and MetSoc supported a student member with a travel grant to attend the meeting. About 600 people attended the meeting, and reports are that it was a really good meeting. Student and Early Career Researcher support – travel awards: In the last 12 months the Society has supported five of our student members to attend overseas conferences with a travel award of $1000 each. One student attended the AMOS-ICSHMO conference in Sydney in February, one went to the GCOS Reference Upper Air meeting in April, two went to the POLAR2018 meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in June, and one will go to the AGU meeting in Washington DC in mid-December. After attending the conference, each student writes a travel report which is published in one of our newsletters. This year we have had an early career scientists’ subcommittee working on setting some guidelines for our student travel support. I am very appreciative of the work that has gone into this. The suggested guidelines are that each year we will support up to 20 Domestic Travel Grants of $200. To be eligible, students need to be enrolled at a New Zealand University and be a MetSoc member. The grants will be awarded on a first come, first served basis. In addition, up to three International Travel Grants (ITG), of up to $1000, will be awarded annually. To be eligible, students need to be enrolled at a New Zealand University, be a MetSoc

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 10 member, and they have to attend a MetSoc conference, or have already attended one. Priority will be given to students who have not applied for an ITG grant previously. Photo Competition: This year Bob McDavitt ran a photo competition (on the website). The winning entry is featured on the cover of Weather & Climate Volume 38. Bob intends to run another competition next year. MOU with AMOS: We have been approached by AMOS about developing a Memorandum of Under- standing that would be of mutual benefit to both societies and memberships. No real progress has been made on this, so this will be a task for the new President and committee.

I started this report by thanking the committee members for their support over the last two years. I would like to finish by thanking them again, because the committee has been a fantastic team that works really hard. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the efforts of James Renwick, who is leaving the committee; he has been the Wellington Vice-President since 2005, served as Presi- dent, been a member of Kidson medal sub-committees, and also helped to organise many of our conferences (including this one). Sylvia Nichol, President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand (2018). After Sylvia presented her report, Jim Salinger asked about the age distribution of our members. We don’t ask members this information but given that we have 100 who work at the MetService and about 50 to 60 at NIWA, we have plenty of working-aged members. We try to encourage students to join and continue to value our older members. Unlike some societies, we are not concerned about an aging membership. Sylvia noted that we need to increase the advertising on our webpage to promote the travel grants. CASH BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR Sylvia also added that 2018-19 thanks need to go to

INCOME James Renwick for all his Subscriptions (incl MetService bulk years and roles on the 13,000 purchase) MetSoc committee and Interest 550 13,550 lead the meeting in a

round of applause.

EXPENSES 6. Treasurer’s report Weather and Climate incl. postage 1,300 (Treasurer Gregor Mac- Newsletters incl stat & post 3,250 Student travel grants and prizes (incl ara) 6,000 overseas travel grants) Fees (Audit, PO Box, Charities Com- 1,000 mission) Royal Society Membership 1,500 Other expenses 500 13,550

0.00

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 11 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 July 2018 2018 2017 Income Subscriptions Received 13,363 12,646 Conference Income 13,408 0 Interest Received 1,457 1,522 Total Income 28,228 14,168

Expenditure Audit fee 725 525 Conference Expenditure 13,408 0 Newsletter 3,232 2,853 Other Expenses 210 90 P O Box 175 175 Royal Society NZ fees 750 1,500 Royal Society Sponsorship 575 0 Student Travel Grants 7,050 3,363 Weather and Climate 1,703 1,300 Website Development 6,073 827 Total Expenditure 33,901 10,633

(Deficit)/Surplus of Income over Expenditure $(5,673) $3,535

Meteorological Society of New Zealand

Balance Sheet as at 31 July 2018

2018 2017 Accumulated Funds Balance 1 August 60,625 57,090 (Deficit)/Surplus Income over Expenditure (5,673) 3,535

Balance 31 July $54,952 $60,625

Represented by: Cheque Account 15,040 14,549 Accrued Interest and Kidson Medals 1,630 1,676 Term Deposits 39,242 44,400 55,912 60,625 Less Accounts Payable 960 0 $54,952 $60,625

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 12 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Notes to the Financial Statements For the year ended 31 July 2018 The Meteorological Society of New Zealand is an independent group of weather enthusiasts whose aim is to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate as related to the New Zealand region.

Statement of Accounting Policies

The Society has elected to apply Public Benefit Entity Simple Format Report- ing – Accrual (Not for Profit) issued by the New Zealand Accounting Standards Board. All transactions in the financial statements are reported using the accrual basis of accounting and the financial statements are prepared under the assumption that the society will continue to operate in the foreseeable future.

Specific Accounting Policies Subscriptions Subscriptions have been taken up on a cash basis. Goods and Services Tax The financial statements have been prepared on a GST inclusive basis.

(c) Changes in accounting policies There have been no changes in accounting policies during the year. All policies have been applied on bases consistent with the previous year.

Income Tax The Society is registered as a charitable entity so no income tax is payable.

Statement of Cash Flows 2018 2017

Cash flows from operating activities Cash was provided from: Subscriptions 13,363 12,647 Conference 13,408 0 Interest 20 43 Cash was disbursed to: Payments to suppliers (18,892 (11,760 ) ) Conference payments (13,408 0 ) Net cash (outflows)/inflows from operating 930 activities (5,509)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 13

Cash flows from investing and financing activities Cash was provided from Term Deposit 6,000 - Cash was disbursed to: - - Net cash flows from investing activities - 6,000

Net increase in cash 491 930 Add opening cash brought forward 14,549 13,619 Closing cash carried forward $15,040 $14,54 9

This is represented by: $15,040 $14,549 Bank Cheque Account Balance

Motion that “The Treasurer’s report be accepted as a true and accurate record” Proposed Gregor Macara/Seconded Jim Salinger–carried Gregor noted that The Financial Report is on an accrual basis, so it differs slightly from the cash- based reporting in the Performance Report for the Charity Service. Our auditor/reviewer prefers this as the more representative and accurate meth- od for our society. For example, we purchased several Kidson Medals at once, but the cost is spread over more than one year, because they are not used in a single year. We had a deficit, but this is not a concern because we want to draw down funds and most of that was due to webpage development, a one-off ex- pense. The budget is for guidance only and is a break-even budget. We are likely to spend more than is indicated on travel grants. After the report and budget was presented, Andrew Tait thanked Gregor for pre- senting a clear report. He suggested that, as we had previously decided to draw down funds, we could offer more domestic student travel grants for a period of, say, five years. This would reduce our accumulated funds and attract more student members. There was a discussion about offering “extra” grants, drawing down funds and how much is “enough” in our accounts. Adding “extra” grants may set up a prece- dence that we cannot support in future years. At some point we may become lia- ble for a conference that runs at a loss, so we need a buffer. Alternative ideas were sought from the floor and included: Fund a student function Set up virtual meetings to link students, to run between conferences A cash prize for the best article in Weather and Climate by a student Competitions Fund amateur groups or public meetings similar to “weather nuts” groups

HydroSoc offers small grants to help students with field work, e.g. to help with travel expenses Move $9000 out of the Term Deposit and deposit interest earned from the Term Deposit into the cheque account, so that the Term Investment is smaller and also a stable size

7. Appointment of Financial Reviewer It is proposed “that the same auditor/financial reviewer be appointed next year”. Proposed Gregor Macara/Seconded Sylvia Nichol—carried 8. Subscription rate (Lisa Murray) Memberships rates are as follows:

New Zealand member and overseas email-only member: $40 Student: $20 Overseas member (with print copies): $55 Institutional member (New Zealand): $120 (i.e. 3 x rate for New Zealand member) Overseas institutional member: $135 Honorary Member: $0 Motion that “subscription rates currently in place remain unchanged and no further categories of rates be introduced”. Proposed Lisa Murray/Seconded Sylvia Nicol—carried 9. Election of Officers (Immediate Past President, Daniel Kingston) Nominations for the 2019 Committee of the Meteorological Society of New Zea- land are: President: Michael Martens Immediate Past President: Sylvia Nichol Secretary: Katrina Richards Treasurer: Gregor Macara Circulation Manager: Lisa Murray Website Liaison: Stefanie Kremser Journal Editor: Nava Fedaeff Newsletter Editor: Bob McDavitt Auckland VP: Petra Pearce Wellington VP: …………………… [vacant] Christchurch VP: Jiawei Zhang Dunedin VP: Daniel Kingston Hamilton VP: Tim Gunn General Committee: Luke Sutherland-Stacey, Mike Revell HydroSoc Liaison: Charles Pearson (for only one more year) The work of the committee is supported by Peter Scholtens (Financial Reviewer) in a paid role. During 2018, Luke Sutherland-Stacey and Ciaran Doolin were co- opted to the subcommittee looking at support for students and early career scientists, and methods to drawn down our cash fund. Ciaran Doolin has stepped down from this role for 2019. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 15 No further nominations were received. Jim Salinger proposed that the nominations be closed. Sylvia Nicol declared that the nominees be declared elected. 10. Other Matters. 10.1: Performance Report for the Charities Service (Secretary, Katrina Richards) Katrina noted that a Kidson medal was awarded in Oct 2018, so it will be in next year’s report. No travel grants have been awarded to early career scientists to date. Categories for reporting and some of the wording is governed by the re- quirements of the Charity Service. Katrina had copies of the full 14-page Performance Report available at the meeting and provided the following summary for comment: Meteorological Society of New Zealand Tier 4 Performance Report Meteorological Society of New Zealand Incorporated Incorporated Society and Registered Charity, Registration Number CC39272 Prepared as required by the Charities Service of New Zealand for year ending 31 July 2018

Mission, Structure and Operations: To encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region and to foster the ex- change of information in meteorology and climatology. Members elect a committee that includes a President, Treasurer, Secre- tary, Circulation Manager and the Immediate Past President. We em- ploy an Auditor/Financial Reviewer once a year. We pay a computer/ web technician, when support is needed. Our main sources of funding are membership subscriptions, conference registration fees, and some interest from term investments. We host scientific conferences and charge registration fees. We get subscription fees from individual members and institutions, such as libraries. We rely on expert volunteers from the scientific community to be on our committee, edit publications, maintain an online presence, organise and promote seminars, and plan and run conferences. The bulk of our members are individuals in New Zealand. Some live overseas. Some are institutions such as libraries, because membership includes receiving our scientific journal "Weather and Climate".

Contacts we provide to Charity Services: Secretary’s home address and phone number PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141 http://www.metsoc.org.nz https://www.facebook.com/nzmetsoc/

Service Performance Outcomes:

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 16 To increase engagement in atmosphere, weather and climate topics and issues To encourage students by awarding travel grants and prizes To support scientists by publishing papers and awarding medals Performance in 2018 (2017 Seminars and talks hosted/promoted 28 (31) Conferences hosted/co-hosted 2 (2) Newsletters published 4 (4) "Weather and Climate" published 1 (1) Kidson Medals 0 (0) Travel grants and student prizes $7,050 ($3763)

Financial Information (based on Financial Statement from Treasurer): 2018 2017 Operating Receipts Conference fees & other receipts from non- members 4,246 - Membership subscriptions 13,442 13,319 Conference fees from members 9,163 - Interest 861 1,829 Other - 400 Total Operating Receipts 27,712 15,548

Operating Payments Payments related to providing goods or services 25,331 6,819 Travel grants and student prizes 7050 3,763 Royal Society of New Zealand fees - 2,250

Total Operating Payments 32,381 12,832

Operating Surplus or (Deficit) (4,669) 2,716 Bank balance at 1 August 58,949 56,233 Bank balance at 31 July 54,280 58,949 Represented by: Cheque account 15,040 14,548 Term Deposits 39,240 44,401

The following mandatory categories have value 0.00: Payments related to public fundraising, Volunteer and employee related payments, Receipts from the sale of resources, Receipts from borrowings, Capital Payments, Purchase of resources, Repayments of borrowings, Related Party Transactions, Significant Events After Balance Date. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Incorporated is permitted by law to apply PBE SFR-C (NFP) Public Benefit Entity Simple Format Reporting - Cash (Not-For-Profit) and has elected to do so. All transactions are reported in the Statement of Receipts and Payments and related Notes to the Performance Report on a cash basis. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Incor- porated is not registered for GST.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 17 Motion that “the Performance Report for 2018 be accepted”. Proposed Katrina Richards/Seconded Lisa Murray—carried 10.2 Kidson Medal: See Item 5 above (Presidents Report) 10.3. Anniversary of James Cook’s arrival During 2019, the RSNZ encourages its Constituent Organisations to celebrate the 250th anniversary of James Cook’s arrival in 1769 to what is now known as New Zealand. Ideas: • Add content to MetSoc’s new “cloud” poster • Make use of the 2019 Photo Competition to address Cook, voyagers/ explorers or sailing • Add material about Maori weather wisdom and/or weather knowledge in Te Reo to MetSoc webpage Tie into RSNZ themes of diversity, support for early career scientists, and part- nering with Maori research communities to enhance Maori research, Maori researchers and Mataurangi Maori There was a discussion about what kinds of things we could do to take part and whether it was appropriate to take part, given that there exist strongly disparate points of view about Cook’s arrival in Australasia. Some ideas raised included: • Exploring the 19 words for “cloud” in the Maori Dictionary • Invite Pauline Harris [Lecturer at Victoria and Chair of the Society of Maori Astronomy Research and Traditions] to write an article for the webpage and/or Weather and Climate • Look at the historical weather at the time of Cook’s arrival (this has been done in Britain for a number of historical events). A suggestion is the time when Cook was unable to exit Doubtful Sounds due to wind conditions. • Add some historical themes (1300 AD onwards) to our next conference and perhaps a Key Note speaker. NIWA scientist Darren King is a possibility. • Letting the RSNZ know we opt out, but using this as a prompt to encourage diversity in what we do and what we publish. 10.4. Any Other Business 10.4.1. Jim Salinger told the group that he was at the inaugural meeting when MetSoc was set up forty years ago. He congratulated MetSoc on reaching 40 years. He proposed a motion “to congratulate the Society for its healthy state and for attaining forty years”. Proposed Jim Salinger/Seconded James Rewick— carried with a round of applause from all present. Jim Salinger warned us to start planning early for the 50th Anniversary in ten years time.

10.4.2. Jiawei Zhang thanked MetSoc for getting him involved in the committee and expressed his appreciation of meeting us in person, and not just on the phone.

10.4.3. Lisa Murray thanked Sylvia Nichol for her time as President and the meeting joined her in a round of applause. Meeting closed at 6:10 pm. The next AGM is expected to be in Wellington in November or December 2019.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 18 Spring 2018: a season of weather swings for New Zealand (NIWA) Temperature Temperatures were near average (-0.50°C to +0.50°C of the spring average) for much of the country. Pockets of below average temperatures (-0.51°C to -1.20°C of the spring average) were observed in coastal Canterbury. A few locations across the west of the South Island recorded above average temperatures (+0.51°C to +1.20°C of the spring average), as did a few isolated locations across interior Gisborne.

Rainfall Well above normal rainfall (>149% of the spring normal) was observed in Otago and lower Canterbury, as well as across Hawke’s Bay. Rainfall was generally above normal (120-149% of the spring normal) for the remainder of the east of both islands. Rainfall was below normal (50-79% of the spring normal) in parts of Auckland, Manawatu-Wanganui, Taranaki, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, and the northern West Coast.

Soil moisture At the end of spring 2018, drier than normal soils were present in Manawatu- Wanganui, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, and in pockets along the West Coast. Soil moisture levels were above normal for the time of year in the east of both islands, as well as across the Coromandel Peninsula and parts of the Far North.

Overview Early in the season, spring 2018 was defined by frequent high pressure systems, particularly over and to the southwest of New Zealand. This influenced more southeasterly wind flows than normal and led to below normal rainfall across interior and western parts of both islands during September and across much of the North Island and the western South Island during October. The tables were turned during November, with lower than normal sea level pressure over the Tasman Sea and higher than normal sea level pressure to the south of the country. This pressure ‘squeeze’ influenced several extreme rainfall events in eastern and inland parts of New Zealand, with century-old rainfall records being broken in some locations. The continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) con- tributed to the variable air flow patterns observed across New Zealand through the season. Warmer than average Tasman Sea surface temperatures may have been associated with the mild yet active November pattern.

Highlights The highest temperature was 31.2°C, observed at Cheviot and Kaikoura on 8 No- vember. The lowest temperature was -7.5°C, observed at Mt Cook Airport on 13 October. The highest 1-day rainfall was 326 mm, recorded at Arthur’s Pass on 8 Novem- ber.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 19 The highest wind gust was 169 km/h, observed at Cape Turnagain on 1 Novem- ber. Of the six main centres in spring 2018, Auckland was the warmest and driest, Tauranga was the sunniest, Christchurch was the coolest, and Wellington was the wettest, and least sunny.

Rain and slips Beginning 3 September, a low pressure system lingering to the east of New Zea- land delivered heavy rain to eastern and southeastern parts of the North Island for almost a week. Flooding and slips occurred in numerous locations between Wellington and Hawke’s Bay. It was reported that the storm saw the loss of an estimated 100,000 spring lambs. On 24 October, water restrictions were put into place in Masterton due to low spring rainfall. Residents were not allowed to use hand held hoses because the water supply from the Waingawa River was running low. On 8 and 9 November, persistent heavy rain fell on many western and inland parts of the South Island. Heaviest falls were along the West Coast, where widespread surface flooding and slips were reported. There were several road clo- sures because of flooding, including an extended stretch of SH6 from Hokitika to Haast. Westland Civil Defence opened a welfare centre in Harihari for locals and tourists that required support. Further inland, SH73 from Arthurs Pass to Jack- sons was closed due to flooding, road washouts and slips. Widespread surface flooding was reported on roads throughout the South Canterbury District. On 19 and 20 November, persistent rain fell over many southern and eastern parts of the South Island. Considerable flooding occurred on the Taieri Plains, where residents of Henley were advised to evacuate. The area was subsequently cut off from SH1 by floodwaters, and local farmers reported floodwaters up to 3 metres deep on their paddocks. Widespread surface flooding was reported in Dunedin, Mosgiel, Lawrence, Beaumont, Middlemarch and Weston. At Dunedin Airport, water was required to be pumped off the runway to enable flights to land. The Clutha River’s flow peaked at approximately 2700 cumecs; which was reported as its highest level since November 1999. On 26 November, heavy rain caused surface flooding in some northeastern parts of the South Island. Motorists were warned to take extra care on SH1 between Blenheim and Picton, and a number of rural roads in the Koromiko area were closed due to floodwaters. Farther north, parts of Wairarapa were also struck with prolonged heavy rain. Dalefield School in Carterton was closed after the Kaipatangata Stream burst its banks and blocked Dalefield Road. State highway 53 into Martinborough was closed at the Waihenga Bridge due to a flooded Ruamahanga River.

Temperatures On 19 September, Hanmer Forest in Canterbury recorded both New Zealand's coolest (-3.1°C) and warmest (22.5°C) temperature for the day. This occurred again on 14 November when Hanmer Forest’s maximum temperature reached

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 20 26.5°C and its minimum temperature was 2.6°C. On 24 October, unseasonable warmth peaked in the lee of the Southern Alps due to a foehn northwest flow. Several locations observed near-record warmth while the temperature at Hanmer Forest reached 28.6°C, its warmest October temperature on record. On 8 November, warm northwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front delivered high temperatures to eastern parts of the country. The highest temperature for the day was observed in Cheviot and Kaikoura, which both reached 31.2°C in the afternoon. This was the first time 30°C was exceeded in New Zea- land since 6 March 2018.

Wind On 9 September, a gust of wind brought down New Zealand’s oldest oak tree (aged 194 years) in a paddock at Waimate North. On 12 October, the Interislander cancelled seven ferry sailings because of expected severe wind and sea conditions in the Cook Strait. On 29 October, a tornado touched down near Ruakura in central Waikato just before 1 pm, generally moving through farmland. It swept up soil, lifted large sheets of corrugated iron, a trampoline, and other light items. On 18 November, a tornado struck near Ash- burton at around 3.30-4.00 p.m. Five spans of one irrigator were upended, and one span of another irrigator was bent in half.

Snow and ice On 17 September, a cold front moved over the South Island bringing heavy rain and snow, particularly to Central Otago and parts of Southland. Up to 45 cm of snow was reported on the ground in some Queenstown suburbs with more than a few centimetres falling all the way down to lake level in both Wanaka and Queenstown. Schools in Queenstown, Arrowtown, and Te Anau Basin were closed for the day. Queenstown Airport cancelled more than 30 flights due to snow. On 10 October, an icy southerly change moved up the South Island, delivering snow to as low as 200 metres in Southland and Otago. State Highway 94 from Te Anau was closed due to several centimetres of settled snow. The Milford Road was closed from Hollyford to Chasm due to an avalanche risk. On 19-20 November, another very low elevation snowfall event for the time of year occurred in the South Island. Snow settled to lake level in Queenstown on 19 November, where flights were delayed or cancelled due to snowfall and poor visibility. In Arrowtown, a large tree had fallen due to the weight of snow, and 537 customers were without power in the Wakatipu Basin due to snow-laden branches falling on power lines. The Crown Range road between Queenstown and Wanaka was closed, with snow also reported on the Milford Road (SH94) and the Lindis Pass (SH8), and SH73 at Porters Pass and Arthur’s Pass.

Lightning and hail On 18 November, thunderstorms struck eastern parts of the South Island, with hail and lightning reported from Dunedin north to Ashburton. Large hail of ap-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 21 proximately 20-30 mm diameter was reported in Ashburton. On 19 November, an Air New Zealand flight from Christchurch to Dunedin was struck by lightning during its descent to landing. Hail showers were also reported between Blenheim and Picton. On 25 November, thunder and hail were reported throughout Auckland, with downpours of rain causing surface flooding about Westmere and Grey Lynn.

Cloud and fog On 1 September, fog blanketed the North Island and caused flight delays and cancellations from Gisborne through to Auckland. For Auckland, 41 domestic flights were cancelled while 37 domestic and 1 international flight were delayed. This was the third consecutive day of fog-related cancellations for the Auckland Airport. On the morning of 2 October, dense fog blanketed Christchurch, causing widespread delays and cancellations at Christchurch Airport. More Details are at www.niwa.co.nz/climate/summaries/monthly

NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ: SPRING 2018 (Ben Tichbourne) Spring is normally a very changeable season in NZ, but this one had even more extreme weather swings than usual. It was notable for several heavy rain events and late snowfalls, but there were also some warm spells resulting in temperatures ending up a little above normal.

SEPTEMBER 1st – Fog is widespread in North Island, causing disruption to several airports, including Auckland Airport. 2nd – Hail and thunderstorms in north of North Island. Tornado reported in Mat- amata. Colder southerly moving onto lower South Island from later in the day, with snow lowering on high country. 3rd-8th – Prolonged wet spell in east of North Island, especially Hawkes Bay. (see details below) 10th – Frosty start to the day in many North Island areas, eg -5C minimum in Tu- rangi and -4C at Motu. 13th-15th – Unusually warm in many eastern areas, also north of South Island. Maximums include 25C in Wairoa (13th) and 24C in Motueka (14th) – both new record highs for September. Gisborne also records a 25C maximum on 13th, and Waiau reaches 24C on 15th. Westerly winds gust up to 152 km/hr at Akitio, Tara- rua District. 17th – Heavy snowfall in inland lower South Island. (see details below) 19th – Hanmer records unusually wide variation of temperature on a fine day, rising from minimum of -3C minimum to 22C maximum. New Plymouth also records a warm 20C maximum. 20th – Unseasonably warm in many North Island places, due to sunshine and warm airflow coming from lower latitudes. Several stations exceed 20c, including Ruakura, Hamilton (23C), Taupo (22C), and Rotorua. (21C) Meanwhile thick

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 22 fog in early morning in Christchurch causes disruption at the airport. 21st – Thick fog forces abandonment of flights to and from Hawkes Bay Airport. 24th – Heavy rain in some eastern parts of South Island as colder southerly flow develops on a low centred over Canterbury. Some evening thunderstorms in Mid and North Canterbury. 32mm recorded in Oamaru. Snow lowering on inland high country. 25th /26th – Cold southwest flow over NZ, with snow showers on the high country, as low as 300m in parts of Otago and Southland on 26th. Thunderstorm sweeps over Marlborough in early hours of 25th, with 64 lightning strikes recorded. Strong winds cause disruption to Hawkes Bay Airport on 26th. 29th – Heavy rain in Fiordland, eg 182mm recorded at Milford Sound.

OCTOBER 2nd – Dense fog blankets Christchurch for part of morning, causing considerable disruption at the airport. Evening thunderstorms with hail in parts of Mid- Canterbury. 10th – Heavy rain on South Island West Coast, eg 108mm at Haast. By contrast, a warm day in the east of the island, under a northwesterly flow. (gales in some ex- posed areas, eg 159 km/hr gust recorded at cape Turnagain) However, cold southerly change spreads onto lower South Island during the day, with temperature drops of 6C-7C in one hour in Timaru, Lauder, and Dunedin. Invercargill (5C) and Puysegur Point (7C) have lowest recorded October maximums. Snow falls to low levels in northern Southland. SH94 from Te Anau to Milford Sound closed by snow and avalanche risk. 12th/13th – Strong, cold southerly outbreak sweeps over country, with wind gusts reaching 139 km/hr on Mt Kaukau on 12th. Interislander ferries cancelled on 12th due to high seas and severe gales. Snow to low levels in inland Canterbury and on North Island high country as far north as Mt Tarawera. (Desert Road closed for a while) Hail showers in many areas. Low maximums (all on 12th) include 1C at Mt Cook Village, 4C in Hanmer, and 7C in Akaroa and Rangiora. Frosty in areas sheltered from the southerly in the South Island on 13th, with new record October minimums at Mt Cook Village (-7C), Queenstown (-4C), and Takaka. (0C) 14th – Cold overnight under clearing skies in weakening southerly., eg -1C minimum in Rotorua, and 1C in Warkworth. 19th – Anticyclonic conditions result in widespread frosts in many North Island areas, with -4C in Turangi and Upper Hutt. (both new October records) 21st – Unusually warm in lower South Island, under sunshine and a light anticyclonic northwesterly flow. 27C maximum in Clyde and 23C in Lumsden. 22nd – Warm in many parts of South Island, especially in the south for a second day. Manapouri’s 24C maximum is a new October record, while other highs include 26C in Reefton, and 22C in Te Anau. 23rd/24th – Warm north to northwest flow over NZ. Particularly warm in areas east of the South Island, with new October record maximums of 28C in Hanmer (24th) and 26C at Mt Cook Village. (23rd) Other highs in east of South Island are in

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 23 the mid to high 20s. Overnight minimums are also high in the lower South Island, with cloud and the warm airflow on the 24th. New records are broken at Puyse- gur Point (15C), Balclutha (14C), and Southwest Cape, Stewart Island. (12C) 27th – Northerly gales in parts of North Island, eg 106 km/hr gust recorded in Waiouru. (equal highest on record for October) 29th – Tornadoes reported in Waikato, with one causing some damage at Ruaku- ra, on outskirts of Hamilton. 30th – Cold, wet day in east of South Island under a strong southerly flow. Fresh snow on the ranges.

NOVEMBER 1st - Strong cold southerly sweeps over North Island, with gales in many areas. The wind fells trees in Auckland with resultant power-cuts to about 2000 homes. Snow on ranges, with non-settling flurries as low as top of Desert Road. Thun- derstorms about eastern Waikato and Bay of Plenty, with some 160 lightning strikes. 3rd – Northwesterly gales in east of South Island and about Cook Strait. Trees felled in Hanmer and Wellington. 4th – Westerly gales in Manawatu, with some 1500 homes losing power due to falling trees. (which also badly damage two cars at Massey University) 8th/9th – Trough over southern and central areas brings very heavy rain on South Island West Coast and snow to low levels in inland Canterbury. (see details below) 13th – Downpour in South Waikato causes surface flooding in Putaruru and Tokoroa. 18th-22nd – Low pressure system brings stormy weather to many areas, including heavy rain, low level snow, thunderstorms and tornadoes. (see details below) 23rd – Downpour causes some surface flooding in inland South Canterbury, eg Geraldine. 24th – Heavy rain in Auckland area. Downpour in Whangaparoa results in a shop collapsing. 25th – Thunderstorms with hail in Auckland. Downpours result in surface flooding in Westmere and New Lynn. Heavy rain also in parts of Hawkes Bay, eg 63mm at Takapau. By contrast, the South Island West Coast is unusually warm in a fohn easterly. Westport’s 25C maximum is a new November record, while Haast and Milford Sound also record 25C highs. This is in sharp contrast to the east of the South Island, where a cloudy and damp onshore flow keeps highs to the low and mid-teens. 26th/27th – Heavy rain about central NZ, eg 68mm at Castlepoint (26th), and 88mm in Kaikoura. (27th) Surface flooding on SH1 between Picton and Blenheim. (26th) SH 53 closed by floodwaters near Martinborough (26th), with widespread flooding in Wairarapa. Thunderstorms in Northland. 28th – Thunderstorms in north of North Island. Another warm day on South Is- land West Coast, with Greymouth reaching 25C. 29th/30th – Thunderstorms in far south, with about 500 lightning strikes record-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 24 ed in Southland. Funnel cloud reported from Roxburgh. Downpour in Te Anau.

MAJOR EVENTS 3rd-8th September – Prolonged wet spell in east of North Island, especially Hawkes Bay

A prolonged southeasterly flow due to low pressure to northeast, brought persistent wet weather to east of North Island. Heavy falls affected parts of Hawkes Bay, with flooding and slips, while the cold, wet weather resulted in lamb losses.

A complex trough moved onto the North Island on the 3rd, with a cold southerly behind it bringing wet weather with snow on the high country of Canterbury and Marlborough. The southerly moved onto the lower North Island during the afternoon, with rain setting in, especially in the east. Southerly gales affected the Cook Strait area (continuing into the next day)

From the 4th-7th, a complex low-pressure system lay over and offshore to the northeast of the North Island, with a strong, moist southeasterly flow covering the island through the period. The weather was wet in the east of the North Is- land, during this period, also at first in the central North Island and about Wel- lington as the trough moved over on the 4th.

However, the heaviest rain was centred on parts of Hawkes Bay from the 4th-6th. This resulted in widespread flooding and slips. High totals included 57mm at Takapau (4th) and Hastings (5th), and 79mm in Wairoa. (5th) Many roads were closed, including SH56 at the Opiki Bridge. Several schools were also forced to close, while the torrential rain caused severe overloading of the city’s water supply. On the 7th and 8th, the rain persisted, but was not as heavy. However, slips continued to cause problems in the areas, closing both SH5 Napier-Taupo and SH2 north of Napier on the 7th.

Temperatures were cold during this period over much of NZ. Snow fell above about 800m in the Central North Island on the 4th, closing the Desert Road overnight and again from afternoon. In sheltered areas of the South Island, heavy frosts occurred, including -4C in Timaru and -3C at Appleby, both on the 8th.

Later on the 8th, the rain finally eased in the east of the North Island.

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Mean sea-level analyses for midnight NZST 2nd September to midday NZST 8th September in 12-hour steps are shown here.

17th September– Heavy snowfall in inland lower South Island

Heavy snow fell in many parts of Central Otago and northern Southland on this day. This caused considerable disruption, especially in the Queenstown area.

The snow was due to a classic warm advection scenario, where moisture coming in from a northerly flow is undercut by colder air coming from the south. In this case, a low formed on a cold front moving onto the lower South Island early in the day. The southerly coming in with the front wasn’t particularly cold, but as it undercut the moisture coming from the low, snow levels fell much lower than they would if it were just a normal southerly change.

The heavy snow fell to low levels in the Southern Lakes area from Te Anau to the Lindis Pass and in adjacent areas of northwestern Southland. The Wakatipu Ba- sin was worst affected, with wet snow causing branches to fall, cutting power to many areas. Many roads were closed, including SH94 to Milford Sound, SH6 The Haast Pass, and SH8 The Lindis Pass. Some Queenstown suburbs reported as much as 45cm snow on the ground, while nearby ski-fields recorded much more. (70cm at Treble Cone, 60cm at Cardrona and Coronet Peak, and 50cm at Re- markables) Unusually low daytime maximums were recorded, eg only 3C in

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 27 Wanaka and 5C in Alexandra.

The snow eased during the evening as the system weakened.

Mean sea-level analyses for Midnight NZST 16th September to Noon NZST 17th September in 12-hour steps are shown here.

8th/9th November – Trough over southern and central areas brings very heavy rain on South Island West Coast and snow to low levels in inland Canterbury

A trough crossing the South Island during this period brought very heavy rain and flooding to the South Island West Coast, while an undercutting southerly on the 9th brought an unseasonably late snowfall to low levels in inland Canterbury

A cold front and trough moved onto the South Island during the 8th, preceded by a strong northwesterly flow over NZ.

Overnight 8th/9th, the front slowed down and a low formed on it over the central South Island. This low remained slow-moving there through much of the 9th, while another low formed to the east during the day. Colder southerly air moved onto the lower South Island behind the front, replacing the warm northwesterly. (maximums reached 20C in Kaikoura and Cheviot, while new record high overnight minimums of 18C were recorded in Masterton and Martinborough and 15C in Reefton) Heavy rain fell in North and Central Otago, with new record high totals of 70mm at Tara Hills, 53mm in Ranfurly, and 52mm in Oamaru and Lauder. Surface flooding affected these areas and South Canterbury.

While the airflow itself wasn’t particularly cold, it undercut warm moisture coming from the north. This allowed freezing levels to drop much lower than they would over Mid and South Canterbury, bringing snow to unseasonably low levels on the 9th. Flakes fell as low as 100m (including Ashburton), settling above about 250-300m. Daytime maximums not surprisingly were very low for the time of year, including 3C at Tekapo and Mt Cook Village, 6C at Tara Hills, and 8C at Le Bons Bay and Timaru. However, for a time during the day, the thermome- ters fell even lower for a time. Timaru had dropped to a wintry 2C at 10am, with

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 28 Fairlie on 0C at the same time. These temperatures were some 20C-25C lower than the day before!

Meanwhile, very heavy rain (initially in thunderstorms) fell about and west of the Southern Alps on the 8th and 9th. 290mm fell at Arthurs Pass and 257mm at Mt Cook. Widespread flooding and slips caused disruption, with SH6 closed between Haast and Hokitika, and SH73 from Arthurs Pass to Jacksons. (a washout closed the highway for several days) Many motorists were trapped by the closure of SH6.

By the night of the 9th, the low pressure system had moved onto the North island and weakened, with the rain and snow easing over the South Island.

Mean sea-level analyses for 1am NZDT 8th March to 1pm NZDT 9th November in 12-hour steps are shown here.

18th-22nd November – Low pressure system brings stormy weather to many areas, including heavy rain, low level snow, thunderstorms and tornadoes

During this period, a large and complex low pressure system affected NZ. Inter- actions between warm and cold airmasses resulted in very unsettled and stormy

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 29 weather in many areas.

A trough, linked to a low well to the south and with several cold fronts, moved onto NZ during the 18th. Conditions became colder over the South Island during the day, as the flow tending south to southwest. Thunder and hail accompanied the change in many places, with hail up to 3cm in diameter reported in Ashbur- ton. There was even a tornado which caused some damage to farms in the Ash- burton and Rakaia areas.

On the 19th, the southern low lay to the southeast of the South Island, with an unseasonably cold southerly flow over the southern half of the island. Snow fell to low levels in inland areas, including Queenstown, where it was heavy and settled to lake level for a time. Queenstown Airport was disrupted by the snow, while in Arrowtown, the snow was heavy enough to cause to a tree to fall. Pow- er cuts caused by snow on the lines affected many properties. The Crown Range road was closed for a time. Queenstown’s maximum was 6C, but it lowered to near 0C during the morning. Wanaka also recorded a chilly high on only 7C.

On the 20th, another low developed to the west of central NZ, with the original low now smaller and just to the east of Otago. Pressures were high well to the south of the South Island. A front connected to the second low pushed onto the lower east of the island, with heavy rain. Flooding was reported in many areas, with Dunedin and South Otago being worst affected. Large parts of the Taieri Plains were under water, with several properties and settlements isolated. SH8 and SH1 were closed for a time. This very wet weather continued into the next day as this low remained slow-moving. Snow continued to fall about the high country, and during a period of rain in Christchurch during the afternoon, the temperature fell as low as 5C with snowflakes and sleet reported falling on the Port Hills.

Northern and central areas were also unsettled on both days, with scattered thunder and hail. Hail was particularly notable in Marlborough on the 19th and around Auckland the next day. Snow fell on the central mountains as low as the Desert Road on the 19th. Masterton recorded 74mm on the 21st, as thunderstorm downpours affected the eastern side of the Tararuas.

On the 22nd, the northern low weakened, while pressures rose over the South Island. Showers continued in many areas, but rain finally cleared away from the southeast of the South Island.

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Mean sea-level analyses in 12-hour steps are shown here. MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH: SPRING 2018 SEPTEMBER:Near normal temperatures and rainfall disguised wide variations during the month. All the rain fell in two short periods - 3rd/4th and 24th/25th. Both occasions were due to cold southerlies, with snow on the inland high country on the 3rd, and the higher hills of Banks Peninsula on the 25th. In contrast, the 13th-16th, 20th, and 29th were unusually warm days with temperatures rising to more than 20C. There was morning fog in the city on the 20th.

OCTOBER: This was another month of great variety. Temperatures once again ended up near normal, but there were both significant warm and cold spells. The most significant of the latter was on the 12th/13th, with some hail on the 12th, with snow to low levels inland for a time and a dusting overnight on Mt Herbert. There were also evening thunderstorms and hail in Mid Canterbury on the 2nd. Thick fog affected the city earlier on that day. By contrast, it was very warm from the 19th-21st, with maximums in the high 20s under a light, anticyclonic west to northwest flow.

NOVEMBER: The most notable feature of this month was its wetness, with rainfall well above normal. Temperatures again varied greatly, with some summer- like spells, but two periods with wintry daytime conditions. After a period of rain and strong, cold southerlies on the 1st, there was a week of warm weather under westerly and northwesterly flows. The morning of the 8th was very warm with near gale force northwesterlies, but temperatures fell in the afternoon as a southerly swept through, and rain developed in the evening in Christchurch. The 9th became colder with rain and temperatures dropping as low as 5C in the afternoon. Snow fell to low levels inland. The following week was more settled, though there was thick fog in the city in the morning of the 15th. However, on the 18th another cold southerly change in the afternoon swept through the area in the afternoon and evening. Thunder, hail, and even a tornado affected areas around Ashburton and Rakaia. Rain and showers again affected Christchurch for the next two days, with cold temperatures. Snow dusted Mt Herbert overnight 19th and again during the afternoon of the next day, when flakes and sleet were reported on the Port Hills as the city’s temperature again dropped to a wintry 5C. The rest of the month saw onshore flows, with some light rain and drizzle on occasion and cool daytime temperatures.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 32

MEDIA CLIPS for Spring Fog lifts after disrupting 78 flights in rare and extensive three-day fog spell 01 Sep DILEEPA FONSEKA AND MELANIE CARROLL

BRADLEY AMBROSE Fog has lifted from Auckland Airport after blan- keting it for the third day in a row and causing disruption to seventy- eight flights. An Auckland Airport spokesperson said fog restrictions at the airport were lifted at 11.02am. The spokesperson said 41 domestic flights were cancelled and 37 delayed due to fog restrictions which came into place at 4.05am. MetService meteorologist Andrew James said fog blanketed the North Island and caused flight delays and cancellations from Gisborne through to Auckland on Saturday morning. James predicted fog could continue linger over the entire upper North Is- land till 11am. This was the third consecutive day of fog delays at Auckland airport, a spell that was "quite rare for Auckland", James said. A MetService study examining weather patterns between 1993 and 2002 Auckland found only seven instances in 10 years where fog had hit the city for two or more days in a row. According to Met- Service Auckland city suffers about 19 fog days a year. (Abridged) https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/106749054/71-flights- disrupted-by-rare-and-extensive-three-day-fog-spell

WeatherWatch to take MetService to Commerce Commission 6 Sep, 2018 Otago Daily Times/ Paul Gorman Private forecasting company WeatherWatch claims MetService is engaging in ''misleading advertising'' and has taken the state-owned enterprise to the Com- merce Commission. The complaint relates to delays in passing on publicly available weather information that allows other forecasting companies to operate. WeatherWatch managing director Philip Duncan said the difficulty in getting what was supposed to be ''open-access data'' was the ''latest frustration'' in try- ing to run a weather business. In his complaint to the commission, Mr Duncan said open data meant ''data with no delays, no restrictions, no hoops to jump through''. MetService had a website link to its ''open data'', but it was ''not open'' because other people's access to it was delayed by three to six hours, ''making this data lose most of its value and commercial use'', he said in the complaint. A MetService spokeswoman said the SOE had not yet been made aware of the complaint by Mr Duncan or the Commerce Commission. ''We are happy to re-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 33 spond to the commission should they be in touch, but have no comment to make at this stage.'' A commission spokeswoman confirmed the complaint had been received. It would be assessed to determine what happened next. How long that would take depended on how many other complaints were being handled, she said. - Otago Daily Times (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/weather-wars-metservice-accused- misleading https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm? c_id=3&objectid=12120197

Mostly paki (fine weather ) for Maori language week—MetService Monday, 10 September, 2018 MetService is forecasting a mostly paki or fine week this week, with a lingering front over the upper North Island the only significant weather feature for today. MetService meteorologist Mark Bowe says a ridge of high pressure builds over most of Aotearoa today. The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the driving factor for the rest of the week with settled conditions for most. Only a weak front bringing some showers for western areas of the South Island from Wednesday can’t do enough to spoil a generally paki Maori Language Week. "MetService is proud to support Te Wiki o Te Reo Maori", Bowe says. "Wellington Airport did experience a Katabatic or northerly wind this morning for a few hours which brought the extended spell of southerlies to an end," Bowe informs. The Katabatic wind for Wellington Airport marks the end of more than 10 days of near constant southerly winds recorded at this site. From records going back to 1960 the only time this was beaten was in 1978 with a spell of 10.6 days of straight southerlies. (Abridged) http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/5/320496

Great summer on the cards, says Herman the Tortoise 11 Sep, 2018 Benn Bathgate

BENN BATHGATE/STUFF - Alf Hoyle and Herman the Tor- toise, who has been giving her owner a heads up on the seasonal weather for 58 years now. She's been predicting the weather for 32 years longer than the MetService, and Herman the Tortoise said we're in for a great summer. Herman, named before her female gender was known, has been telling owner Alf

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 34 Hoyle about the weather for the upcoming seasons for a staggering 58 years now, thanks to when she decides it's time to hibernate, or when it's time to wake up. She woke up from this winter's hibernation on August 31. "A week early," Hoyle said. "We're in for a good summer, a hot summer." Hoyle, a sprightly 88 years of age, has owned Herman for more than half a century now, though her exact age remains something of a mystery. Stuff (Abridged) https://www.stuff.co.nz/oddstuff/106998011/great-summer-on-the-cards-says- herman-the-tortoise

North Island farmers lose 100,000 lambs after spring storm 17 Sep GERARD HUTCHING

BARRY HARCOURT A ewe and her lambs near Te Anau on Monday following an early spring snowfall. There have been few reports of losses in Otago-Southland. Farmers have suffered "devastating" lamb losses in eastern and central North Island over the last two weeks with an estimated toll of about 100,000. At current prices of $144 per mature lamb, the economic hit could be $14.4 million. AgriHQ analyst Mel Croad described the North Island losses as a devastating blow for farmer morale. "It's been a cruel start to the spring for many sheep farmers, the first week delivered cold weather and heavy rain which is a pretty tough environment for new born lambs and couldn't come at a worse time for sheep farmers." Patoka Station, Hawke's Bay owner Ben Crosse said about 750 of his lambs had died, one of the biggest death tolls in his 35 years of farming. He runs 4000 ewes. Crosse said it was difficult to rescue the lambs, especially if the rain had got to them first. He had managed to put covers over a number, and three-quarters of those had survived. "But you never know how good your lambing is until the end of the season because anything might happen - we might have an El Nino and a big drought." "We've had bigger losses before and we will again. It's just bad timing, it's something we can't control," Crosse said. Wairarapa hill country farmer Jamie Falloon said he had not done a tally of his losses yet, but was expecting a significant number because there had been seven days of cold rain right in the middle of lambing. "Unfortunately the weather pattern just stalled right over us, we received 275 millimetres ourselves and others received more. Anything born in that period, it was a tough environment for them." Beef+Lamb NZ economist Andrew Burtt said it would be devastating for individ-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 35 ual farmers, but would not have a huge impact nationally. Each year there are about 19 million lambs and 3.3 million ewes slaughtered. (Abridged) https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/107152693/north-island-farmers- lose-100000-lambs-after-spring-storm

Blanket of snow which closes schools, cancels flights is a normal spring thing 17 Sep 2018 DEBBIE JAMIESON/STUFF Heavy snow that caused widespread disruption in parts of the South Island is expected to ease later on Monday. Snow blanketed the lower South Island, closing roads and schools, can- celling flights and causing power outages.

DEBBIE JAMIESON/STUFF The snow has stopped falling in Queenstown. MetService meteorologist Andy Best said the snowfall won't last very long ... “It's going away later this afternoon and tonight and it all turns to rain and then over the next few days there's a ridge of high pressure that builds over the South Island and it clears up.” Stuff (Abridged) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/107128609/snow-falling-wintry-front-hitting -the-country-may-disrupt-travel-and-affect-livestock

Weather assessment tool gains govt funding 20 Sep By Sean Nugent A team led by an Alexandra-based research company has secured funding to create a world-leading, near real-time assessment tool to the public that will study extreme weather events and their link to climate change. Bodeker Scientific, along with Niwa and MetService, will develop the tool – called Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (Eweram) – that would show how an extreme weather event, such as the heavy snowfall in Queenstown and Wanaka earlier this week, would have occurred in the atmospheric conditions of 1750. Bodeker Scientific owner and director Greg Bodeker said this could be done by running simulations similar to those made for daily weather forecasts, but changing the conditions such as surface temperature, atmospheric temperature and humidity to mimic those of 1750. ‘’After the big snowfall that happened in Queenstown, they’d be able to say whether this event would’ve happened [in 1750] or wouldn’t have happened, or

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 36 it would’ve been the same. ‘’It could’ve been that with climate change putting more water vapour into the atmosphere it would’ve made the snowfall in Queenstown bigger. But so far no- one has any capability to make that statement.’’ He believed Eweram would raise awareness that climate change was more than just global warming. ‘’I suspect few if any people would’ve seen the snowfall in Queenstown and wondered if climate change had made it more severe, because we only think of climate change as global warming. But it is quite possible that climate change did cause the snowfall to be heavier, as there’s more water vapour in the air and more water vapour means more precipitation.’’ The project has received just under $1million over three years from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund. Mr Bodeker said it was hoped the tool would become part of Metservice’s regu- lar weather-forecasting chain. While others around the world were attempting to build the same thing, Mr Bodeker said that, to his knowledge, no country had yet implemented such a tool as part of its weather forecasting. Minister for Research, Science and Innovation Megan Woods said climate change was the ‘’biggest environmental challenge of our time’’ and wholeheartedly backed the project. ‘’Making information on the impacts of climate change more accessible is an incredibly valuable public service, and research like this will make a vital contribution to highlighting the need to transition to a low-emissions economy.’’ https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/weather-assessment-tool-gains- govt-funding

Spring storm brings snow to low levels in south, heavy rain in Christchurch 24 Sep Michael Daly

METSERVICE MetService rain radar image taken at 7:43pm. A stationary front has brought heavy rain over Christchurch, with up to 8.5 millimetres falling in the past hour. Met- Service meteorologist Melissa Oosterwijk said on Monday evening it would continue to fall, but it should start to ease by 9.30pm Oosterwijk said there was a lot of snow and rain about Canterbury and Otago, and urged people to check their local forecast before venturing outside.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 37 MEGAN GATTEY The scene at Mt Hutt on Monday as snow falls. A slow-moving low- pressure system was forecast to deepen on Monday, directing a cold, moist southeast flow over the South Is- land.

The expected dump of heavy snow comes the day after the Southern Hemisphere spring equinox, when the hours of daylight and nighttime were of about equal duration across the planet. (Abridgd)

https:// www.stuff.co.nz/ national/107313823/ spring-storm-brings- snow-to-200m-in-south -cold-arriving-in-north-island-later

Out-of-Season Tropical Cyclone Liua forms in Southern Hemisphere 27 September By Brian Donegan Tropical Cyclone Liua formed Thursday in the southwestern Pacific Ocean near the Solomon Islands. The last time a southwestern Pacific tropical cyclone formed in September was in 1950. This is the first TC to form during the month of Septem- ber in the SW Pacific since Tropical Cyclone 02P on 12 Sep 1950 or in 68 years.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 38 Liua is over the Solomons' Makira Island and is forecast to develop into a category two on the scale of one to five. Its winds are weak, but forecasters are concerned about its slow pace and heavy rains. The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season doesn't officially begin until Nov. 1. Stephen Meke of the Fiji Meteorological Service also told Radio New Zea- land that September tropical cyclones are extremely unusual, adding that conditions in the entire region were months ahead of the norm. "Though we are still in the transition months, the environment has presented itself and allowed for this tropical cyclone to fire up," Meke said. "The conditions for tropical cyclones are there for the South Pacific, that's very true." Tropical Cyclone Fehi was the first to form last season and affected New Caledo- nia and New Zealand in late January. (abridged from 4 sources) https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/367412/liua-is-south- pacific-s-first-cyclone-in-september-for-70-years https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/367453/cyclone-liua- still-weak-drenches-solomon-islands https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/liua-south-pacifics-first-cyclone-in- september-70-years https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-27-tropical-cyclone-liua -southern-hemisphere-out-of-season

Skiers excited by late flurry of spring snow on Mt Taranaki 25 Sep Leighton Keith

The Manganui ski field at 5pm on Monday. A spring snowfall on Mt Tara- naki provided a delightful surprise for a group of tourists and has local skiers opti- mistic of a fi- nal run this year. The Man- ganui ski field, which was bare tussock and grass on Monday afternoon, received a dump of more than 100mm of snow overnight and members of the Stratford Mountain Club were hopeful more would fall in the coming days.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 39 SUPPLIED The Manganui ski field at 6.40am on Tuesday after a heavy dump of snow over night. The wintry blast that brought the snow also saw strong winds, hail and large swells batter the Taranaki coastline which just days before had been bask- ing in sunshine with temperatures reaching 17 degrees Celsi- us during the weekend. The MetService said snow could fall down to 800m in some areas again over night on Tuesday but was forecasting the cold snap would be finished by the end of the week. (Abridgd) https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/107347323/skiers-excited- by-late-flurry-of-spring-snow-on-mt-taranaki

NZ stock losses average this winter Monday, 1 October 2018 By Simon Hartley

A newborn lamb near Mosgiel enjoys the close attention of its mother last season. Photo: Gregor Richardson Bitter weather conditions around New Zea- land during the past two weeks prompted a large spike in lamb and calf deaths, but the season is on track to reflect five-year averag- es. Wallace Group chief executive Graham Short- land said from the Waikato storms in the North Island about two weeks ago and in Ota- go and Southland a week ago had taken a "fairly significant" toll on lambs and calves. "Up until then it had been a very average year [for dead animal collections]," he said. Despite the spikes, Mr Shortland predicted stock losses would most likely reflect averag-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 40 es of the past five years, although losses this season were slightly higher than a year ago. Wallace Group collects and process well over 1 million cows, calves and lambs annually, which includes several hundred thousand calf skins from the meat works. Farmers are paid for the stock collected. Nationally, Wallace Group would annually expect to process more than 25,000 cattle hides, and the skins of more than 600,000 calves and up to 450,000 lambs, or slinkskins. At the height of the season, more than 400 people were employed, Mr Shortland said. About 25% of the tannery production was casualty calves and cows, with the balance being hides from meat-processing plants. The company also processes calf skins into parchment, which are dried then exported and used by traditional Jewish rabbi for Torah scrolls and other documents. Mr Shortland said almost 100% of the hides were exported to several Asian and European destinations, but mainly China and Italy, while the carcasses were ren- dered down into fertiliser. https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/red-meat/nz-stock-losses-average-winter

Government decision on R&D tax incentives delivers Wednesday, 3 October 2018 MetService Chief Executive Peter Lennox has today welcomed the announcement that State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are eligible for the Government’s Research and Development (R&D) tax incentives. Through the work of Chief Financial Officer Keith Hilligan, MetService and other SOEs advocated that their inclusion would increase the level of high quality R&D currently being undertaken across the SOE portfolio. "New Zealand will realise the benefits from the untapped potential of SOEs to invest further in R&D activity, enabling them to maximise their innovation and contribution to New Zealand, leading to an increase in human, social and physi- cal capital," Peter says. "As such, we are extremely pleased with this outcome. With enhanced R&D, SOEs will be better able to address the challenges the Government has identified as facing our country and ensure the intellectual property remains in state ownership." MetService division MetOcean Solutions and its partners was recently awarded $11.5 million from the Government’s Endeavour Fund for the Moana Project, aimed at enhancing understanding of New Zealand’s marine environment. MetService is also partner in the Bodeker Scientific proposal for an Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine awarded just under $1m, and NI- WA’s proposal to develop a reliable ocean forecast tool for managing marine dis- asters in New Zealand. "Research completed across MetService ultimately benefits the wider New Zea- land community whether that is through our delivery of enhanced safety services or by building the nations meteorological and oceanographic expertise," says Peter.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 41 "With the inclusion of tax incentives, a level playing field is maintained whereby SOEs can compete with other businesses eligible to claim incentives. "MetService will be able to increase returns to our shareholder - the New Zea- land Government, provide increased employment through the delivery of the research and ultimately, deliver better benefits for New Zealand." About MetService MetService is New Zealand’s National Meteorological Service. As a State-Owned Enterprise its core purpose is to protect the safety of life and property in New Zealand while operating as a commercial business. MetService recently emerged as one of the highest rated agencies in Colmar Brunton’s annual survey of reputation in the public sector. http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/opinion-does-our-public-sector-measure- up/ http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1810/S00049/government-decision-on-rd- tax-incentives-delivers.htm

Locals chase, capture epic footage of tornado above Te Awamutu 04/10/2018 Sophie Bateman

A Waikato man has captured the amazing sight of a tornado tearing across the sky. Finn Krippner from Pirongia filmed the rare weather event as he drove down Golf Rd in the township of Te Awamutu. He told Newshub he and his friends leaped at the chance to follow the tornado. "I was quite excited - we were doing some work in the yard when we saw it, and decided to get in the car and start chasing it." He says it's the first time he's seen a tornado in about 10 years. "I was pretty shocked - you just never come across them." Tornadoes are relatively rare in New Zealand, with about seven moderate to strong ones hitting the country every year. Three people have been killed by tornadoes this century: two near Waitara in 2004, and one in Albany in 2011. The West Coast of the South Island and Taranaki in the North Island are the places most likely to get tornadoes in New Zealand. Newshub. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/10/locals-chase- capture-epic-footage-of-tornado-above-te-awamutu.html

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Pupil scientists help Niwa Saturday, 6 October 2018

Niwa air quality scientist Gustavo Olivares shows Alex- andra Primary School pupils the inner workings of a sensor to track smoke as part of their recent project. Photo: Stuart Mackay The truth about Alexandra’s air quality will soon be revealed by a future generation of scientists. Alexandra Primary School pupils have spent four months monitoring the town’s smoke levels to determine what was happening with smoke inside their homes. Their findings will be revealed during a public meeting on October 17. Alexandra regularly fails to meet the national standard for air quality in winter, according to Niwa. It was for that reason that year 5 and 6 pupils took home a sensor, developed by Niwa, to monitor what was happening with smoke inside their homes. They used an app to record whether they could see or smell smoke and if it affected their breathing or made them cough. Niwa also placed sensors on power poles around the town to observe smoke outdoors. He said data collected showed a 10-fold difference in air quality inside homes sampled across the town. "The aim is [to] show Alexandra some new evidence about the complexity of the town’s air quality and stimulate some debate about how the situation can be improved." (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/pupil-scientists-help-niwa

Near average Tropical Cyclone season expected for Pacific Wednesday, 10 October 2018 A ‘near-average’ Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone season is forecast this year, meaning any number from seven to 11 named cyclones occurring between No- vember and April. Three or four of these are expected to be severe, of Category Three or higher. New Zealand however is typically only affected by one ex-tropical cyclone on average over this period and the coming season is expected to be ‘normal’. Every year MetService, New Zealand’s official Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC), works alongside NIWA, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and national meteorological services from other Pacific nations to produce a Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the coming season. The average number of named tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific (including the Coral Sea) is about 10 per season. TCWC Manager and severe weather expert Chris Noble says cyclone activity started particularly early this year with the development of Tropical Cyclone Liua in September. Sometimes an ex-tropical cyclone will approach and may even cross New Zealand

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 43 as was the case last season when former cyclones Fehi and Gita brought severe weather along with storm surge and coastal inundation to parts of the country. If cyclones are expected to impact New Zealand with severe weather, official ad- vice will be provided via Severe Weather Outlooks, Watches and Warnings issued by MetService. Even if land areas are not affected, warnings are still issued for vessels over the open sea. (Abridged) http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1810/S00061/near-average-tropical- cyclone-season-expected-for-pacific.htm http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/5/323106

Ferries cancelled as wintry blast not over yet Friday, 12 October 2018 Several Interislander ferry services have been cancelled today due to stormy weather in Cook Strait as a bitterly cold southerly blasts its way up the country. Heavy rain and severe southerly gales are forecast for Wellington today, with waves exceeding 5 metres. An Interislander spokesman said the last ferry to sail from Wellington left at 9am and the last sailing from Picton was at 10.45am. Affected passengers were being contacted and rescheduled onto sailings tomorrow.

A cold southerly came through Wel- lington this morning and undercut the northerly winds ahead of it. This enhanced the rainfall and you can see near the end of the loop the rainfall increasing over the Capital just as the southerly comes through. http://bit.ly/ met- servicenz ^MB&CC. Temperatures there have plummeted, with Dunedin as low as 4degC and Christ- church 10degC and most areas doused in rain or showers. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/ferries-cancelled-wintry-blast-not-over- yet

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 44

Weather analysis the 'super gain' for New Zealand in America's Cup 15 October, 2018

There's an old adage that says you can't change the wind but you can adjust your sails. It's a lesson for life, but racing sailors have got this down to a fine art as they seek incremen- tal gains in performance. From dinghy sailors reading the wind as they race around a short course, to circumnavigators hitching a ride on pressure systems barreling around the planet, harnessing the weather is a fundamental principle in sailing. And knowledge equals power. In the super high-tech world of the America's Cup, micro analysis of climatic conditions is becoming increasingly important as hydrofoil technology becomes even more advanced. And, although foiling fever has gripped the world of sailing over the last decade or so, the giant multihulls that rose out of the water to "fly" over the surface on hydrofoils at the 2013 America's Cup in San Francisco were a game-changer. At the 2017 America's Cup, raced in foiling AC50 catamarans in Bermuda, Emir- ates Team New Zealand trounced all-comers and demolished holder Oracle Team USA 7-1 to regain the Cup. Much was made of the Kiwis' revolutionary "cyclors" -- using leg power to operate the winches rather than traditional arm grinders -- but their in-depth analysis of the weather, applied to complex hydrodynamics data to determine which specific foil configurations to use, was one of the real keys, according to team chief Grant Dalton. "The met [meteorology] was probably the unsung super gain that we had," Dal- ton told CNN's Mainsail. Dan Bernasconi, head of design for Emirates Team New Zealand, said the team had a number of design options for foiling appendages on any given day and would make their selections based on the information from the team meteorologist, Roger "Clouds" Badham. "We had two different options for dagger boards and different options for rud- ders and elevators, so we had to develop our processes so we could make changes to the boat as late as possible, because it was absolutely crucial to the performance of the boat to have the right foils on for the right conditions," said Bernas- coni. Dalton added: "These set-up changes made massive speed issues -- 3-4 knots if

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 45 we got it wrong. "So Clouds was under the most pressure he's ever been under in any campaign. Basically, we waited for him to tell us what boards we were going to race with. Whatever he called was what we'd do." As winners, the Kiwis have taken the historic event back home and will host the next edition of the America's Cup in 75ft foiling monohulls in Auckland in 2021. Five separate race courses from the mouth of Auckland's Waitemata Harbor into Hauraki Gulf will provide very different conditions. A scientific knowledge of the wind and water state at any given moment during the short 20-minute races could be the difference between winning and losing the Cup. "This is a city where you go out in 5 knots and it's blowing 25 knots before you get to the race course," added Dalton. "That'll affect your foil configuration and what jibs you have on board, and because we'll go quickfire, we won't have time for a three-hour build up. They'll [meteorologists] have better tools but the interpretation will need to be even finer and you will take a gain if you get that right." When an America's Cup campaign for 2021 will cost in excess of $140 million, you can't afford to take your eye off the weather. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/15/sport/mainsail-october-weather- americas-cup-spt-intl/index.html

Cracking end to holiday weekend Monday, 22 October 2018 The cracking holiday weekend weather has continued for most of the country, with unseasonably warm temperatures breaking through in some areas. MetService meteorologist James Millward said the high-pressure ridge had brought warm, settled weather to much of the country. "Most people will have woken up to a blue sky today, which is a very nice start for your Monday off," Millward said. (Abridged) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/cracking-end-holiday-weekend

‘Perfect storm’ of climate change and growing conflict OCTOBER 24, 2018

A “perfect storm” linking climate change to the development of violence is slowly growing and already making its impact felt in the Pacific, the global head of the Red Cross has warned New Zealanders. Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, said the issue had forced humanitarian organisations to go “far beyond just handouts” in their attempts to prevent conflict. The Government is already focusing on the security implications of climate change: the issue was heavily emphasised in its recent Strategic De- fence Policy Statement, while Defence Minister Ron Mark has spoken about the risks of growing refugee numbers and population displacement from changing weather patterns.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 46

Maurer, in New Zealand last week for a work programme which included a meeting with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, told Newsroom the future impact of climate change on patterns of conflict was one of the major topics of discussion during his time in the country. The Pacific is already dealing with rising water levels due to climate change - and the head of the Red Cross warns it and other regions could suffer from growing conflict as a result. Photo: Sam Sachdeva. “There is perfect storm building up between climate change and the development of violence which is of concern to us, and which we in certain respects we find unfolding already in parts of Africa, parts of the Middle East, and even in the Pacific,” he said. The Red Cross had already learned from its work in Africa, with changing rainfall patterns leading to the displacement of populations including traditional habitats for agriculturalists and pastoralists. “[They were] living in the same area and having an understanding on how to use the land, and climate change was disrupting those long-term agree- ments and spurring conflict.” The work went “far beyond just handouts”, Maurer said, mentioning work with agricultural communities to find new crops which could cope with the changed rainfall levels. “Humanitarian work today is not any more, in some of the regions where we deal with climate change, the traditional truck coming to the village with goods, but faces much more complex realities and mitigating measures when we deal with climate change.” Refugee support was also a major part of Red Cross work, Maurer said, with a focus on the two-thirds displaced within their own countries during conflict and the majority of the remaining third who fled to neigh- bouring countries. “One of the lessons we have learned is people do not really want to mi- grate further than what is absolutely necessary, they try to stay as close to home as possible, in particular if there is still hope they can go home in any foreseeable future.” There was always a “delicate conversation” within countries about how many refugees to take in and over what period of time, while tensions between refugees and host communities were a recurring issue - with access

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 47 to basic social services the origin of most tension. (Abridged) https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/10/23/288944/climate-change-growing- conflict-create-perfect-storm

Why NZ vineyards are resting on climate change laurels 24 OCTOBER 24,

Some wineries are choosing to sell up and leave the industry now rather than invest in adaptation or see their vines destroyed, File photo: Getty Images Like many other industries, New Zealand’s $1.6 billion wine industry is starting to see the effects of climate change on its products. However, Victoria University of Wellington research shows that most wineries can’t – or won’t – do anything to miti- gate the effects. Over the past year, Master of Environmental Studies student Alyssa Ryan asked more than 500 wineries about their climate change beliefs, knowledge and information sources, and their plans to adapt to climate change. She then conducted more in-depth interviews with some of them. “Most wineries reported issues associated with climate change, including extreme weather,” says Ryan. The wineries she interviewed reported an increase in frost and wind, as well as a lack of water. They also reported an increase in powdery mil- dew, a disease that has been strongly linked to climate change in international research. Finally, many reported a shorter growing cycle, which could reduce the quality of wine and increase the alcohol content. However, 63 percent of the wineries Ryan interviewed had no plans to adapt to problems caused by climate change. They cited two major rea- sons: lack of data and budget constraints. “Most wineries believed climate change was happening and most reported seeing the effects on their crops. But either they can’t afford to make plans or they want more specific information about what issues they need to adapt to now and in the future.” Most adaptation techniques involve significant investment in new equipment, locations and vines. A single frost fan to help melt the frost on vines can cost more than $40,000, not including the associated running and maintenance costs. Many wineries are experimenting with new wine varietals that will stand up to warmer temperatures, but new vines take

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 48 up to 10 years to grow, so this is a slow solution. “Some wineries are choosing to sell up and leave the industry now rather than invest in adaptation or see their vines destroyed,” says Ryan. “Even bigger wineries, which can afford to adapt, are choosing to stick with current methods. They would rather grow a high seller like sauvignon blanc until they can’t anymore, and make as much money as possible, rather than invest a lot of money in risky adaptation.” She says wineries have to invest a lot of time and money in change and they don’t want to blindly do so without knowing if those changes will be effective. “The wineries want specific regional data and climate modelling. They don’t trust in the data they have now for New Zealand as a whole and the specific regional data they need doesn’t exist. They also don’t have access to academic research in any consistent way, so even if data did exist they would have a difficult time finding it.” Ryan’s goal is to make sure New Zealand wineries have access to this data. She will be making her Master’s research available to the wineries that took part and hopes to continue on to a PhD where she can complete some specific regional climate modelling for the industry. “I want to bridge the gap between the wineries and science research and make sure they have the data they need to make informed business deci- sions,” she says. “Many other countries have this data and have vulnerabil- ity assessments, so the framework is there – I just need to fill it for New Zealand.” The other thing that would help would be more national support for this kind of work, she says. Local councils may be willing to invest in it but they want direction from central government before doing so. Fortunately, says Ryan, some of the adaptation techniques wineries are using are uniquely suited to New Zealand, which can give the country an advantage when managing the effects of climate change on wine. “Some wineries are testing new varietals and there are many grape varietals that suit warmer weather. If New Zealand’s temperature rose, there would still be other grape varietals wineries could grow. Also, many wineries use modern low-alcohol techniques, so, if climate change causes an increase in alcohol content in the grapes, New Zealand is prepared to deal with it. Many wineries I spoke to seemed particularly unconcerned about this due to their experience with low-alcohol techniques, which is positive.” https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@future-learning/2018/10/23/288904/why-nz- vineyards-are-resting-on-climate-change-laurels

Tornado spotted tearing through Waikato field 29/10/2018 Credits: Image: Sam Owen; A tornado has been captured on camera tearing across the Waikato.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 49

One photo was captured by Waikato dairy farmer Sam Owen on Monday around Hamil- ton’s rural outskirts. It shows a large ring of debris rising from the ground towards the dark swirl of clouds above. (abridged) https:// www.newshub.co.nz/ home/new- zealand/2018/10/tornado-spotted-tearing-through-waikato-field.html

How a near-perfect rectangle iceberg formed Monday, October 29, 2018, NASA scientist Jeremy Harbeck was on a surveying flight over the Antarctic Pen- insula earlier this month when he spotted an iceberg that looked like no other. It was almost perfectly rectangular, with square sides and a flat top that made it look more human-made than natural. "I thought this rectangular iceberg was visually interesting and fairly photogenic so, on a lark, I just took a couple photos," Harbeck said. These photos have since been shared around the globe. Despite its eerily perfect shape, this iceberg is completely natural, and in fact not even that unusual. Ice has a crystal structure that means it prefers to break along straight lines. In the northern hemisphere, ice sheets sit on bed- rock, and the friction between the ice and the ground means icebergs form in the irregular shapes that most of us picture when thinking of an iceberg.

Icebergs of this type are called 'tabular'. Credit: NASA/Operation Icebridge

In contrast, the edges of the Ant- arctic ice sheet are mainly made of floating ice shelves. These ice slabs are free

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 50 to break along their natural crystal structure, resulting in icebergs that often have straight edges and smooth tops The walls of this new iceberg are sharp and almost perfectly vertical, suggesting they formed recently. As time goes on, waves will start to erode these edges, creating large arches and caving in its walls. Sue Cook, Ice Shelf Glaciologist, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons li- cense. http://theconversation.com/how-a-near-perfect-rectangular-iceberg-formed- 105655

Strong winds batter Auckland: Power outages, roads blocked 1 Nov, 2018 Auckland emergency services were in overdrive on Thursday night, dealing with a number of weather-related incidents, including power outages. Maximum recorded gusts of 95km/hr about Auckland Harbour Bridge and Whangaparaoa Peninsula recorded earlier today. Metservice meteorologist Ravi Kandula told the Herald Auckland had a mean wind speed of around 50 to 60km/h, with some gusts reaching 100km/h. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12152964

Storms pummel the North Island, more to come 2 Nov 2018

Lightning strikes were recorded in the BOP as storms lashed the North Island. A burst of severe weather moved across the country on Thursday, bringing over 160 lightning strikes to eastern parts of the North Island. MetService says 88 strikes hit Bay of Plenty, while eastern Waikato saw 50. Further inland, light snow fell on the Desert Road and did not settle, allevi- ating fears it might impact motorists. AUCKLAND BATTERED Earlier, strong winds battered Auckland and kept emergency services busy into Thursday evening. Tui McInnes, a meteorologist at MetService says the stronger wind developed around 8-9am in Auckland, and the peak strength was between 2-4pm. -Stuff/Liu Chen https://sunlive.co.nz/news/192431-storms-pummel-north-island-more-to- come.html

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Weather: Lightning strikes, gales smash New Zealand as severe weather hits 03/11/2018 Scott Palmer

Lightning, gale-force winds and heavy rain are slamming New Zealand on Sat- urday as severe weather hits. The windy westerly blast is driving across New Zealand this weekend, driving Kiwis indoors with wind gusts well over 100km/h. "An active spring blast is affecting New Zealand bringing heavy rain to the West Coast, strong to gale nor'westers to central and eastern districts and then later snow across the Southern Alps," Weath- er Watch says. And NIWA warns it will be "one of the windiest weekends in a while". https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new -zealand/2018/11/weather-lightning-strikes-gales-smash-new-zealand-as- severe-weather-hits.html

Powerful new supercomputer ready to provide glimpse into NZ's climate future 6 Nov 2018 Amber-Leigh Woolf A new supercomputer will help NZ scientists and researchers grapple with the most important climate challenges. Fortunately, the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) now has one of the biggest in the country. Its new $23 million supercomputer comes in three parts. Two of the sections – nicknamed Māui and Mahuika – roar loudly all day in a locked bunker in the Wellington suburb of Evans Bay. The third section, Kupe, resides in Auckland.

ROSS GIBLIN/STUFF Principal scientist Dr Michael Uddstrom with one of the three sections of Niwa's new $23m supercomputer.

Niwa principal scientist Mi- chael Uddstrom said it was the most capable computer in New Zealand. "The supercomputer is primarily a service to simulate something, whether it's the climate or the weather or the sea ...

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 52 the supercomputer gives us the ability to do that because we're able to look at the future." Uddstrom said it used the same amount of power as about 300 houses, and even more to keep it cool. It has an expected lifespan of about six years, he said. Niwa chief scientist for climate and hazards Sam Dean said the computer was "just a thing", but it would take people to new places with their research. Māui, Mahuika and Kupe replace FitzRoy, Niwa's previous supercomputer, which last year helped forecast a future where Wellington was as hot as Sydney and the Wairarapa was plagued by droughts by 2090 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. But FitzRoy could not keep up with the modern-day demands of climate modelling. Its replacement has up to 13 times the computing capability, more than six times the storage capacity, and provides more than 33,500 compute cores – equivalent to about 16,000 laptops. The new supercomputer will be able to lead investigations into climate change, geonomics, ocean system dynamics, freshwater flows, and artificial intelligence networks. "Previous NeSI research was taking days to complete ... in the new infrastructure, it's completed in about four hours." http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1811/S00064/niwas-new-23m- supercomputer-facility.htm https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/NIWA/ FMfcgxvzLXCwMjhDdgLPcchjclVmQkdL

West Coast floods: person missing, bridge wrecked Thursday, 8 November 2018 A bridge near Arthur's Pass on the West Coast was swept away by floodwaters. The New Zealand Transport Agency confirmed Goat Creek Bridge on State Highway 73 is down. Another nearby bridge - Kellys Creek - was also flooded, with water covering part of the road. MetService tweeted tonight that 300mm of rain had fallen in Arthur's Pass, while Franz Josef just topped over 200mm.

Bridge collapse at Goat Creek, just east of Otira. Photo: Jess Dempsey via NZ Herald

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 53 The wet and wild weather system has bashed the West Coast, forcing the closure of schools, roads and potentially stranding students for the night. Meanwhile, Otago Boys' High School pupils have been marooned in a hut in the Mt Aspiring National park after heavy rains made a creek impassable. Areas of the West Coast have been drenched, the Ivory Glacier receiving 391mm of rain - more than Clyde, Cromwell and Alexandra saw in the entire of 2017. The MetService says Hokitika copped more than 800 lightning strikes in a 20- minute period this morning. The strongest winds recorded so far were 80km/h at a station near Lumsden in Southland, and 65km/h at Le Bons Bay on Banks Peninsula. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/west-coast-floods-person- missing-bridge-wrecked

West Coast river takes mum of 11 Friday, 9 November 2018 Rejoice Steadfast has died after being swept away in a swollen West Coast river. Photo / TVNZ A mother of 11 from the Gloriavale community has died after being swept away in a swollen West Coast river yesterday. A source told the New Zealand Her- ald that the woman, Rejoice Stead- fast, had been watching the raging Haupiri River yesterday with family members when the bank collapsed and she fell in the water. "It is an ab- solute tragedy," they said.Police this morning said a Search and Rescue team had recovered her body at 8am MetService meteorologist Nick Zachar said some weather stations had recorded over half a metre of rain in the past 24 hours. A whitebaiter's abandoned van was flooded on an island in the middle of the Hokitika River yesterday morning.PHOTO: HOKITIKA GUARDIAN Ivory Glacier on the West Coast topped the charts at 550mm, while many other areas in the ranges received similar amounts. https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/west -coast/west-coast-river-takes-mum- 11 https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/ new-zealand/bridge-near-arthurs- pass-collapses-person-missing-in- greymouth-river-torrential-rain- continues

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'Atmospheric river' brings more rain to glacier than Christchurch gets in a year FRI, 9 NOV

NIWA says the amount of rain which fell on one West Coast glacier between 12am Wednesday and 9am today was more than Christchurch typically gets in a year. The site of the rainfall was Ivory Glacier near Hokitika, where 652mm of rain fell during that period, outweigh- ing Christchurch's annual average rainfall of 594mm. NIWA meteorologist Benn Noll said the downpour was due to a phenomena called an "atmospheric river" - a long, narrow region in the atmosphere which transports most of the water vapour outside of the tropics. Downpours in other elevated regions over the same period were also heavy, with Mt Philistine receiving 508mm, Arthur's Pass 397mm and Mt Cook 351mm. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/atmospheric-river-brings- more-rain-glacier-than-christchurch-gets-in-year

MetService explains 'amazing' optical phenomena spotted over Northland yesterday SUN, NOV 18 MetService has ex- plained a beautiful rainbow-like phenomenon seen over the town of Paparoa in Northland yesterday. Natalie Richards was passing through with her mum yesterday when they noticed the phenomena in the sky, saying it was slowing changing colour for about 15 minutes. "Thought the country should know because it's amazing! Never seen it before!" she said.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 55 MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said the rainbow was in fact a phenomenon called a Circumhorizontal Arc. "Basically, what happens is sunlight enters the cloud and ice crystals in the cloud refract the light and form a rainbow," she said. "It isn't a necessarily rare phenomenon, however the person observing it has to be standing in the right place at the right time. "The sun needs to be behind them in order to see the refracted light, and of course you have to have colder clouds that contain ice crystals mixed in with some sunny spells!" https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/metservice-explains-amazing- optical-phenomena-spotted-over-northland-yesterday

'Massive' tornado hits Mid Canterbury 18 November 2018

Photo: Alesha Plew A tornado has rolled through Canterbury this afternoon. The twister was captured by local resident Alesha Plew as she and her husband Richard were driving along State Highway 1 north of Ashburton. "My husband looked up and just said… what is that? It was just a massive tornado, a big brown twister." Plew said they'd driven through a severe hailstorm in Ashburton, before the skies cleared. And then the twister appeared in a paddock beside them. MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said "substantial" hail between 20 and 30 millimetres started to pour down over Ashburton around 3pm Sunday. McInnes said small tornados, or vortexes, were possible of the updraft caused by the thunderstorm. https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/south-canterbury/massive-tornado-hits-mid- canterbury

MetService: Conditions perfect for 100m-tall Canterbury twister 19 Nov 2018 A family driving in Ashburton got a close up view of a tornado. It looked like one. It moved like one. And the conditions on Sunday over parts of Canterbury were right for one. But was it really a tornado? Opinions have varied since the first clips of the swirling funnel cloud, estimated as 100m tall or more, near Ashburton were posted on social media in the late afternoon.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 56 AIMEE BLACKLER/SUPPLIED A photograph of the tornado on Sunday at 3.50pm, five minutes north of Ashburton. The size of the funnel and its colour made some believe it might just have been a large dust devil. However, the official word from MetService is, yes indeed, it was a bona fide tornado. Severe weather forecaster Andy Downs said without knowing the full extent of the damage it was difficult to say how strong the tornado's winds had been. "What we really need is for someone to put up a drone and have a close look at the path it took." Conditions had been ideal across the Canterbury Plains for tornadic development, he said. Warm air generated over the Plains by the intensity of the sun, and increasingly cold air aloft, allowed thunder clouds to bubble up to the top of the atmosphere above mid-Canterbury and South Canterbury. Moist northeasterly winds ahead of the cold southwesterly change dragged in even damper air from offshore, fuelling the clouds' growth. The taller the clouds, the more intense the up and down-draughts inside them and the larger the hail- stones could grow. "It had all the classic ingredients." Downs said the dust sucked into the tornado helped make it look more dramatic. "That dust component helped it appear so much larger, like those full-on Ameri- can ones. Clearly it was a tornado."

MetService's Rakaia radar image, taken at 3.37pm, shows a line of thunderstorms extending offshore from inland of Ashburton. The area in the image col- oured green, to the west of Ashburton, appeared to have the "classic hook" shape associated with tornadoes, Downs said. The bright pink patch in the centre of the green was probably very large and heavy hail. It was unclear how long the tornado lasted. It may have been 15 minutes or so, but the funnel could have "come and gone".

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 57 A farmer reported the tornado tipped two irrigators and moved a mower after blowing across his property before it broke up. Stuff https://www.stuff.co.nz/science/108694095/metservice-conditions-perfect-for -100mtall-canterbury-twister https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/severe-weather/tornado-stuns-motorists- tips-farming-equipment-in-canterbury-new-zealand-ng-b881025550z

Voice of Fiji's weather office dies 21 November 2018 The voice of Fiji's weather service Ravind Kumar has died. The late director of Fiji's Meteorological Service had worked at the government department for 31 years. He's been described as a committed civil servant who brought passion, experience and energy in the national weather service as well as in the region. Mr Kumar is to be cremated in Nadi today. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/pacific/376434/voice-of-fiji-s-weather-office- dies

NZ weather: Abnormal El Niño weather likely this summer 22/11/2018 Angie Skerrett While many parts of the country have been drenched this week, forecasters say an abnormal El Niño weather event is looking likely for New Zealand over summer. In the latest update about the potential for an El Niño system, NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll said there was now an 80 percent chance it will happen. "El Niño conditions have still yet to officially arrive, but the Pacific Ocean continues to make strides towards it," he said. He said this particular El Niño is likely to start late, and is exhibiting some non- traditional characteristics in the ocean. "The most unusually warm sea surface temperatures are in the central equatori- al Pacific - typically, they are found further east, closer to South America," said Mr Noll. This is known as a central-based El Niño, or El Niño Modoki. Modoki is a Japa- nese word that means "same, but different". He said impacts from this El Niño are likely to deviate from those experienced during a conventional event. "During summer in a typical El Niño, New Zealand has stronger and/or more frequent winds from the west, leading to an elevated risk of drier-than-normal con-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter155 Summer 2018-2019 Page 58 ditions in the east of both islands and above normal rainfall in the west," he noted. "This year and into next year, while westerly air flow patterns are favoured, the summer season may come with a bit more variability." El Niño Modoki may be associated with periodic easterly wind flows that bring some beneficial rainfall to eastern areas. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rural/2018/11/nz-weather-abnormal-el-ni- o-weather-likely-this-summer.html

Strange weather allows for skiing in December 23 Nov 2018 After an unseasonable amount of spring snowfall Cardrona Alpine Re- sort is set to open up for skiing in December. Photo: RNZ / Tess Brunton "We're embracing what our maunga has given us," says Cardrona general manager Bridget Legnavsky. The resort typically opens in the summer for mountain biking and carting, but these activities will not be available for at least the first few days of December because of the amount of snow. Recent significant snowfall means the resort will instead be initially operating for beginner skiing, tubing, sightseeing and snow play. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/376675/strange-weather-allows-for -skiing-in-december

WeatherWatch gains investment to fight weather duopoly following Govern- ment review - NBR Fri, 23/11/2018 By Fiona Rotherham, NBR

--- Philip Duncan’s big passion in life is, to quote a well-known Dave Dob- byn song, “bringing you the weather from the satellite jigsaw.” The 40-year-old former radio ad man’s own outlook is sunnier due to an influx of new investment and partnerships with IBM and Amazon that will see him able to provide more accurate, detailed weather forecasts across New Zealand by setting up an alternative network.

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Mr Duncan has sold half of WeatherWatch for about $500,000 to five new investors, including Vivian Morresey, former general manager of sales and marketing at Xero, who has taken on the role of chief operations officer, along with an 11% stake in the company. His brother, Shaun Morresey, has become the second- largest stakeholder with a 16% stake. Mr Duncan has no formal qualifications in weather but he’s always been fasci- nated by it, is a good communicator, and buys in the scientific information and computer modelling he needs. He positively gushes when asked about his favorite weather event – cyclones Fer- gus and Drena, which hit in late 1996 and 1997, the summer he left high school, which led to him setting up a private weather station in his hometown of Te Aro- ha. As an aside, he says the eastern Waikato gets hit by cyclones with winds worse than anywhere else in New Zealand. Who knew? Wellington-based Vivian Morresey is another weather nut, who set up wind.co.nz in the 1990s when he was really into windsurfing and didn’t want to have to drive to the beach to find out which way the wind was blowing. While popular, the website never made much money and he moved on to bigger and better things with a number of tech startups including Xero and Green Button.He runs another tech startup, PartTimer, which he co-founded in early 2016. Part- Timer makes it easier for employers to hire part-time staff.

PartTimer founders Rebecca Gidall (left) and Vivi- an Morresey. Mr Morresey says he’s attracted to WeatherWatch because he thinks the timing is now right with ad- vances in technology to “take it to the next level. “That’s something I’ve learnt with startups that timing is the thing. You can have a lot of money to make things happen but for the best effect you need to have the right timing,” he says. The uphill battle and getting over it Mr Duncan has muddled along with just one other staffer since he conceived the idea in 2005 after category five Hurricane Katrina caused enormous damage in the US. He provided internal forecasts for his then employers, The Radio Network and Newstalk ZB, before taking over ownership in 2010. The company expanded into providing weather forecasts on the six biggest centres for private and public sector entities, in competition with the two government-owned forecasters, Met- Service (which provides weather forecasts out for 10 days) and Niwa (which fo- cuses on climate change). Mr Duncan has managed to survive and make a small profit but has been ham- pered by a lack of working capital to create new products and a lack of access to open data on weather from the duopoly government agencies. NBR first reported on Mr Duncan’s battle against the agencies in 2011 and then again in 2012 when MetService succumbed to public pressure to release rain ra-

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dar imagery (the “holy grail of weather”) in real-time and free to the public. The catch was it wouldn’t do so for competitors, making them pay prohibitive fees. An open access to weather data review by the Ministry for Business and PwC was completed in April last year but only released by the Labour government in Octo- ber this year. Research, Science and Innovation minister Megan Woods said the status quo would remain. After a meeting with the minister, Mr Duncan says the outcome was “disappointing, especially after the years of waiting.” A spokeper- son for the minister's office described the meeting as "positive". His frustration stems from the fact New Zealand is one of the few western countries to commercialise its weather information and he’s still pursuing several complaints including accusations of anti-competitive behaviour against Niwa and MetService with the Commerce Commission. The commission says the complaints were on hold pending the review’ s outcome and it’s now assessing whether to open an investigation or not. But Mr Duncan’s new investors told him to get over it and move on. Their money allows him to increase staff numbers to seven including hiring a chief technology officer. New partnerships with IBM and Amazon means it can provide more detailed forecasts on New Zealand from a range of forecasters globally and he’s setting up an alternate network with the first rain radar due in Auckland early next year. Mr Duncan likens it to the Telecom set up in the 1990s/early 2000s when it had monopoly ownership of the copper wire network which made it hard for competitors to enter the market. Telstra ended up installing its own cables and infrastructure to compete. “We’re saying we’ll build our own separate system, make a profit on it, and provide a service that’s missing,” he says. Although there’s enough money in the pot for one rain radar, more investment would be needed to build out that infrastructure nationwide. Mr Morressey says the plan is to assess how well the service is monetised in Auckland before seek- ing more capital. One point of difference for WeatherWatch will be providing people with an ag- gregate of forecasts from different providers globally and in New Zealand rather than just one, he says. Mr Morresey was in the US last year when Hurricane Irma struck and watched as private forecasters provided four or five different paths on where it was heading. “In New Zealand you just get the path,” he says, and it often turns out wrong. The government forecasters will be able to be held more accountable, Mr Dun- can says somewhat gleefully, but he insists it’s not about beating up on them. “It’s about finding another way to help lift the standards of weather forecasting in New Zealand.” Do people trust weather forecasts when they’re so often wrong? Forecasters can get quite defensive about that question, he says, because there are a lot of variables. “I don’t agree that a weather forecast should tell you the weather forecast. It should explain what the weather patterns are doing and the most likely fore-

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cast but Mother Nature makes the weather, not us.” Weather permitting The Open Access to Weather Data review, entitled Weather Permitting, aimed to find out if more government-held data should be more accessible to the public to encourage innovation in New Zealand. It also investigated whether MetService and Niwa were complying with the principles for making available non-personal data held by the government. The review found that while most data reuse principles were being met by both agencies, access to observational weather data is more restricted in New Zealand than in other countries. The current barriers are unsurprising, it says, given MetService as a state-owned enterprise and Niwa as a Crown research institute are tasked with offsetting some of their costs through a user-pays model for data. Improving accessibility would mean changing the agencies’ funding models and central government would have to fund any shortfall. The cost of that legislative change would also run into the millions of dollars and it is not a priority for government. The review concluded that, while there would be benefits for commercial users from making more data more freely available, the costs to taxpayers outweighed the public benefits. The government said legislative changes were “out of scope” of the review along with whether there was an overlap of forecasting services by the two agencies. New Zealand had the most restrictive access compared to other western countries, with the US and Norway both at the other end with completely free access. While there are other players in the local market such as big overseas weather companies, without access to more detailed New Zealand weather data their products are of low resolution and detail, making the two government agencies the dominant players for weather services and data. The review also said access to timely weather observation data in New Zealand is costly, with charges ranging from hundreds of thousands of dollars for some data and millions per year for the entire surface observation network. Both agencies also don’t have standard or published prices, negotiating each agreement separately. It also said some people believed the agencies used their monopoly to stifle market competition. For its part, the MetService says it welcomed the government’s recent conclusion of the review and that “most data reuse principles were being met.” However, it is making further changes to increase accessibility and reusability of observational weather data, including developing an API (application program- ming interface) that makes a wider range of data publicly available to support the development of innovative products. A revamped website being rolled out next year will also include self-service access to data paid for online. MetService provides forecasts for up to 10 days as well as a seasonal outlook and is the official provider of the severe weather warning system for emergency services. Niwa is more focused on climate change. It has just opened a new $23 million supercomputer facility that will help to advance weather forecasting, enable more

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precise forecasts, and refine forecasting of climate extremes and hazardous events. https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/weatherwatch-gains-investment- fight-weather-duopoly-following-government-review-nbr

Auckland hit by flash flooding Sunday, 25 November 2018 Emergency services are respond- ing to reports of flooding in Auckland as heavy downpours hit the city. An active front was moving over the North Island today, producing severe localised downpours. Photo / Graeme Macdonald https://www.odt.co.nz/news/ national/auckland-hit-flash- flooding https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12165909

Floods underscore importance of radar Tuesday, 27 November 2018 By Jono Edwards Gavin Palmer The absence of a weather radar in Otago could impact "public safety'' during floods, the Otago Regional Coun- cil says. A report to the council this week says the lack of radar coverage during last week's flood made it "difficult to confirm whether some rivers had peaked, especially the Silver Stream, Lindsay Creek and Water of Leith''. Council engineering, hazards and science director Gavin Palmer said the importance of a radar had been conveyed to MetService over time. MetService initially planned to have such a radar installed in Otago this year but, because of land sales and negotiations, that has been delayed until May 2020. Dr Palmer said he was confident MetService knew the importance of the project to the region. In a flood event, a radar would "fill in the gaps'' of river conditions. "It tells us whether rain has actually stopped, or if it's still on the way.'' MetService communications meteorologist Lisa Murray said it was "unfortunate'' the installation of the radar was delayed. She could not name the preferred site because of ongoing negotiations except that it was about "40km southwest of Dunedin''. It wanted to install the radar in Otago to "serve the people in the region better''. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/floods-underscore-importance-radar

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Niwa calls for citizen scientists 29 Nov, 2018 Northland Age Robert Scott and his team did not survive their journey to the South Pole in 1912, but left some valuable weather data. Niwa climate scientists are calling for volunteers to unearth weather secrets from the past, including those recorded by members of Captain Robert Scott's doomed journey to the South Pole in 1912. Scott and his four-man team perished and their bodies were left on the ice, but their weather records were retrieved. Now scientists plan to use those records, and millions of daily observations made by early explorers, people on whaling ships, cargo ships and lighthouses around New Zealand and the Southern Ocean before the 1950s, to learn more about climate change. To do that, they are looking for volunteers to key-in information from handwritten weather logbooks into a computer database. Niwa climate scientist Petra Pearce said the more that was known about weather in the past, the more accurate predictions for future climate patterns would be. Big gaps in weather records before the 1950s made it harder to work out future climate changes, "but by recovering many of these records, and digitising them, we can feed the information into weather reconstructions that help us under- stand how rapidly this important part of the Earth is changing. The more observations we have, the more certainty we have about the conditions at the time," she said. The weather records, some dating back to the mid-1800s, were normally meticu- lously kept in logbooks, with entries made several times a day recording information such as temperature, barometric pressure and wind direction, as well as comments about cloud cover, snow drifts or rainfall. However, most of this "incredibly valuable" information had never been tran- scribed, and had not previously been used by scientists for modelling. "We have 150,000 images of logbook pages from archives in the UK and Scandi- navia that need to be keyed. Each image has about six days of data, which can include up to 70 pieces of information. That adds up to millions of observations to key over the course of the project," Ms Pearce said. Anyone with an internet connection could log on to the Southern Weather Dis- covery website (www.southernweatherdiscovery.org) and immediately begin keying-in data, doing as much or as little as they liked. Niwa was hoping to have 250,000 completed observations by the middle of next year, and would be extremely grateful for any help. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm? c_id=26&objectid=12168265

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