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Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment

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Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Asiia-Paciifiic Regiionall Clliimate Change Adaptatiion Assessment FFIINNAALL RREEPPOORRTT:: FFIINNDDIINNGGSS AANNDD RREECCOOMMMMEENNDDAATTIIOONNSS Aprp iill 2010 Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment FINAL REPORT: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS April 2010 Task Order No. EPP-I-03-06-00007-00 under the PLACE (Prosperity, Livelihoods and Conserving Ecosystems) Indefinite Quantities Contract International Resources Group 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 289-0100 DISCLAIMER The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government Cover image credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (see http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=19282). TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms ..................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1 Assessment Objectives and Methods .................................................................................. 1 Geographic Scope and Methods ........................................................................................... 1 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Objectives of the Report ................................................................................................. 7 1.3 Methods ............................................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Outline of the Report ..................................................................................................... 10 2. Regional Synthesis: Climate Change Risks ................................................. 11 2.1 Climate Change and Variability: Impacts of Concern .............................................. 13 2.2 Human, Economic, and Environmental Vulnerability ............................................... 18 2.3 Geographic “Hot Spots” ................................................................................................ 27 3. Adaptation Challenges, Options, and Strategies ...................................... 31 3.1 Adaptation Definitions and Concepts ......................................................................... 31 3.2 Barriers to Adaptation Planning and Implementation ............................................. 32 3.3 Adaptation Options ......................................................................................................... 34 3.4 Illustrative Adaptation Measures and Strategies ....................................................... 35 4. Key Regional Partners ................................................................................... 45 4.1 Key Constraints Facing Regional Partners ................................................................. 45 4.1 Data, Modeling, and Tools ............................................................................................. 46 4.2 Knowledge Platforms and Networks .......................................................................... 48 4.3 Adaptation Financing and Implementation ................................................................. 51 5. Key Considerations for Regional Adaptation Programming .................. 55 5.1 Options for Addressing Adaptation Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region ........ 55 5.2 Key Elements of Regional Programs and Activities .................................................. 62 Final Report: Findings and Recommendations iii 5.3 Priority Adaptation Areas of Focus ............................................................................. 62 5.4 Strategic Opportunities for Partnership and Cooperation .................................... 67 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................... 73 Annex A – Illustrative Regional Adaptation Initiatives ..................................... 79 A.1 Regional Adaptation Capacity Building and Governance Initiative ....................... 79 A.2 Mekong Climate Initiative .............................................................................................. 83 A.3 Asian Mega-Cities Adaptation Initiative ...................................................................... 86 A.4 Coastal Communities and Ecosystems Adaptation Initiative ................................. 87 A.5 Agriculture and Food Security Adaptation Initiative ............................................... 89 A.6 Forest Ecosystems Adaptation Initiative .................................................................... 91 Annex B – Asia and Pacific Regional Meetings and Consultations ................ 95 Annex C – List of Documentation .................................................................... 103 C.1 Global and Regional Documentation ....................................................................... 103 C.2 Sub-regional and National Documentation ............................................................. 109 C.3 Documentation on Other Geographic Areas ........................................................ 115 Annex D – Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific Region .... 117 D.1 Key Vulnerabilities in North Asia ............................................................................. 117 D.2 Key Vulnerabilities in South Asia .............................................................................. 118 D.3 Key Vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia ....................................................................... 120 D.4 Key Vulnerabilities in the Pacific ............................................................................... 121 Annex E – Adaptation Projects and Funds ....................................................... 123 iv USAID Asia-Pacific Regional Adaptation Assessment ACRONYMS A1B, B1, A1F1 climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ACCCA Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation ADAPT Assessment and Design for Adaptation to Climate Change: A Prototype Tool ADB Asian Development Bank ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Center AIACC Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors AIT Asian Institute of Technology ALM Adaptation Learning Mechanism APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APCCAN Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Network ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AusAID Australian Agency for International Development CAPWIP Center for Asia-Pacific Women in Politics CCAI Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative CDM Clean Development Mechanism CIEAR Climate envelopes/adaptation risk screening platform CLACC Capacity Strengthening of Least Developed Countries for Adaptation to Climate Change CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CT Coral Triangle CTI Coral Triangle Initiative CriSTAL Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods DEWGA Disaster Environment Working Group for Asia DFID Department for International Development (United Kingdom) Final Report: Findings and Recommendations v DRAGON Delta Research and Global Observation Network Partnership DRR/M disaster risk reduction and management EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ELAN Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (United Nations) FSM Federated States of Micronesia GCM global circulation model GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG greenhouse gas GLOF glacial lake outburst flood GMS Greater Mekong Subregion GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (German Development Agency) HDI Human Development Index ICCAI International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IDS Institute for Development Studies IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LDC Least Developed Country LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund vi USAID Asia-Pacific Regional Adaptation Assessment LMI Lower Mekong Initiative MDG Millennium Development Goals MPA marine protected area MPCC Mekong Panel on Climate Change MRC Mekong River Commission NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NCAR US National Center for Atmospheric Research NGOs non-governmental organizations NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ORCHID Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters PACC Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change PEDRR Partnership for Environment & Disaster Risk Reduction
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