Gulf Insights Series Nº 18 – March 2020 Covid-19 in the Gulf Special
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Covid-19 in the Gulf Special Coverage The Sudden Cost of Unexpected Threats: The Novel Coronavirus and Dubai Hamdullah Baycar Gulf Insights Series Nº 18 – March 2020 Gulf Insights Nº 18 – March 2020 The Sudden Cost of Unexpected Threats: The Novel Coronavirus and Dubai Hamdullah Baycar Introduction coronavirus to Dubai will be highly damaging. The economy of Dubai is By the time this piece was remarkable in that it has moved away written, the virus has already spread to from an oil-based to one in which 95% 121 countries causing an estimated of its income is derived from non-oil 5486 deaths among 145,826 infected sectors. This diversification has been people. The UAE is one of the affected possible thanks to the real estate, countries, announcing 85 confirmed tourism, and transportation sectors, cases with no deaths. Even though the which in turn, have transformed the UAE and Dubai are still safe places in emirate into a truly global city. Being a which to conduct regular affairs, any global city, however, comes at a cost. It sector that relies on international requires a stable region (and even a connections is likely to be affected. stable world) that is far away from any Some of the potentially most affected conventional (like wars) or areas include (1) the decrease in unconventional threats, such as import and export and related areas epidemics and natural disasters. such as ports, free trade zones, and re- Hence, during a regional or exporting firms, (2) sectors which are international outbreak, the blessing of directly related to tourism and being a highly global city can also be its hospitality sectors, like hotels, real- curse. estates, international events, and The first two months of 2020 airlines, (3) the worst-case scenario is were not a good start for Dubai and the the effects of the coronavirus lasting UAE. To begin with, the region saw a until October 2020, thus leading to rise in Iran-US tensions in Iraq. The disappointment or the cancellation of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Expo2020. Iran, for example, threatens Dubai (and the UAE) to be the one of next targets if Import and Export Iranian soils are bombed because of the alliance of the UAE with the US. A Exports and imports to and from more unconventional threat has been China are one of the issues that the the spread of the novel coronavirus virus may affect if it is not stopped. (COVID-19) to the UAE and the world. China is the leading import source for Dubai has been affected because of its the UAE, with 15% of imports coming economic structure, cosmopolitan from China in 2018. China, in return, population, and reliance on tourism and imports oil and gas from GCC tourism related sectors. Furthermore, countries. As Dubai is not a significant experts believe that if the virus is not producer of oil and gas, the direct contained soon, i.e. before it has impact of oil and gas is negligible. The substantially affected export-import entire UAE only exports 4.2% of its total relations, and more importantly, before exports to China, the least of all GCC the Expo2020 in October, when Dubai countries. However, the decrease in the expects to host 25 million visitors and Chinese need for oil and gas has far make $33 billion, the cost of broader implications because the need for less oil means less manufacturing is 2 Gulf Insights Nº 18 – March 2020 occurring in China. This means more known as a home to 200 nationalities, expensive export goods to Dubai and some people may avoid visiting global the UAE. cities such as Dubai in such times. As it Even though Dubai is not a is tough to determine what the impact significant exporter of oil, the fall of oil of this virus in Dubai and the rest of the prices to 2008 levels, affected the world will be, for the time being, the capital emirate, Abu Dhabi, and thus canceled flights, bans, and travel the federal budget. Experts have restrictions can serve a sign of some already revisited the impact of the losses. In 2018, around 1 million coronavirus on GCC nations’ GDPs as Chinese people visited Dubai (3.9% of their expectation was that the total passengers who passed through coronavirus would be contained before Dubai International Airport in 2018), March. The Dubai Financial Market fell and last year, 284,000 Iranians visited 4.5%, while its sister market in Abu Dubai. Some important sectors of Dhabi fell 3.6%, at the close of trading Dubai include hospitality, retail, at the end of February, the lowest this development, and real estate. Emaar year. It has since only partially Group’s shares, one of the most recovered from this fall. important groups that are in all of these sectors, struggled in 2020. Tourism and Tourism Related Sectors Furthermore, Burj Khalifa shares dropped 10%, Emaar Malls lost 4.7%, Emirates Airlines, owned by the and Emaar Development lost 8.4 Emirates Group, have asked their percent at the end of February. employees to take paid and/or unpaid Many important international leave because “a particular challenge events have already been affected and for us right now is dealing with the are being canceled or postponed. For impact of the COVID-19.” This example, Dubai Lynx, an event that challenge has caused a “measurable brought 2400 influential people in 2019, slowdown in business across our was set up for March 2020 but had to brands, and a need for flexibility in the be rescheduled to September 2020. way we work.” The company had more Dubai International Boat Show, one of than 100,000 employees, including the most prestigious marine shows in more than 21,000 cabin crew and 4,000 the region is another event that had to pilots at the end of March 2019, the end be postponed to November. Careers of its last financial year. In addition to UAE 2020 and Dubai Chess Open canceled flights from and to many 2020 were also postponed for an Iranian, Italian, Chinese, Bahraini, and indefinite period. Even though many of Saudi cities, a general decrease in air these events may not be individually of travel demand has harmed the firm. a strategic importance to the Dubai Related to canceled flights, travel economy, events like these show the restrictions to other countries directly harm the virus has on the emirate. affect Dubai-based airlines because These events all help the tourism, retail, Dubai is known for being a transfer hub hotel, transport and airline sectors. for overseas travel. They boost spending in the economy Dubai may have already faced a (and provide jobs). They also increase recession in tourism because tourists Dubai’s worldwide prestige, so they do from China, Italy, Iran, and other have strategic importance as a whole. affected countries have a significant contribution in the Dubai tourism market share. Furthermore, as Dubai is 3 Gulf Insights Nº 18 – March 2020 EXPO2020 Conclusion The worst scenario, however, Dubai is one of the most would be if the virus is not contained by frequently visited tourist destinations, the second half of 2020. In that case, both in the Middle East and around the Expo2020, an event that every country world. Contrary to a commonly held dreams of, may not fulfill expectations. belief, Dubai is not an oil or gas-rich As Expo2020 has not yet begun, it is city, and only 5% of its GDP is derived too early to anticipate the impact, but if from oil. Instead, Dubai enjoys making the coronavirus is not controlled headlines by being the financial capital globally, Expo2020 may be a liability of the United Arab Emirates (the UAE) more than an advantage. The year and as a city with an obsession with 2020 was planned to be the year in superlatives (the tallest building, the which the Dubai economy (and even largest inland shopping center, among the UAE) would strengthen its capacity many others) where finance, business, and recover from the infamous and tourism meet. To maintain this recession of the 2008 construction status, Dubai needs stable conditions crisis, thanks to the universally known both internally and externally. Although and prestigious event, Expo2020. it is the dream of many other Gulf states The ruler of Dubai and other to diversify their economies into areas officials have ordered all construction to such as tourism, re-export, and finance, be finished by the time Expo2020 this benefit can also be a nation’s curse begins, to promote a positive image of during times of internal or international Dubai and the UAE to the world. Dubai instability. aims to attract 25 million visitors and A global outbreak (like COVID- $33 billion of revenue with this 19), in which more than 140,000 people extraordinary event. But even more from 121 countries were infected, and importantly, Dubai aims to secure its one which results in many countries future by creating new jobs and restricting their citizens’ travel, affects businesses for the future. Dubai as well as other cities negatively. Even without the impact of Some of the areas that will affect Dubai coronavirus, hosting a world-level event most are also the most powerful areas like the Expo is not free from risks. of Dubai such as tourism, real estate, Many remember the disappointment of and re-export sectors. Dubai’s powerful Expo2000 in Germany. Germany sectors, such as airlines, ports, re- expected to attract 40 million visitors, exports, free-trade zones, real estates, but could not reach even half that stock market, and finally its hospitality number (18 million).