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Chapter 4 Commonly Used Distributions Bernoulli Trial

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Chapter 4 Commonly Used Distributions Bernoulli Trial Chapter 4 Commonly Used Distributions 4.1 Binomial distribution x3.4 Bernoulli trial: the simplest kind of random trial (like coin tossing) ♠ Each trial has two outcomes: S or F. ♠ For each trial, P (S) = p . ♠ The trials are independent. 76 ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 77 th Associated r.v.: let Yi be the outcome of i trial. Its takes only two values, f0; 1g, with pmf P (Yi = 1) = p and P (Yi = 0) = 1 − p, called Bernoulli dist. Then, E(Yi) = p and var(Yi) = pq. Generic name: |Quality control: Defective/Good; ♠Clinical trial: Survival/death; disease/non- disease; cure/not cure; effective/ineffective; |sampling survey: male/female; old/young; Coke/Pepsi; ♠online ads: click/not click .... Example 4.1 Which of following are Bernoulli trials? ♠ Roll a die 100 times and observe whether getting even or odd spots. ♠ Observe daily temperature and see whether it is above or below ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 78 freezing temperature. ♠ Sample 1000 people and observe whether they belong to upper, middle or low SES class. Definition: Let X be the number of successes in a Bernoulli process with n trials and probability of success p. Then, the dist of X called a Binomial distribution, denoted by X ∼ Bin(n; p). Fact: Let X ∼ Bin(n; p), then n x n−x • (pmf) b(x; n; p) = P (X = x) = x p q . • (summary) EX = np and var(X) = npq. • (sum of indep. r.v.) X = Y1 + ··· + Yn, FYi = a Bernoulli r.v. ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 79 Binomial with n= 8 p= 0.5 Binomial with n= 25 p= 0.5 Binomial with n= 50 p= 0.5 0.15 0.25 0.20 0.08 0.10 0.15 y y y 0.10 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 x x x Binomial with n= 8 p= 0.3 Binomial with n= 25 p= 0.3 Binomial with n= 60 p= 0.3 0.30 0.15 0.08 0.20 0.10 y y y 0.04 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 x x x Binomial with n= 8 p= 0.1 Binomial with n= 25 p= 0.1 Binomial with n= 100 p= 0.1 0.4 0.25 0.12 0.20 0.3 0.08 0.15 y y y 0.2 0.10 0.04 0.1 0.05 0.0 0.00 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 x x x Figure 4.1: Bionomial distributions with different parameters. ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 80 Example 4.2 Genetics According to Mendelian's theory, a cross fertilization of related species of red and white flowered plants produces offsprings of which 25% are red flowered plants. Crossing 5 pairs, what is the chance of | no red flowered plant? Let X = # of red flowered plants. Then, X ∼ Bin(5; 0:25). P (X = 0) = q5 = 0:755 = 0:237: | no more than 3 red flowered plants? P (X ≤ 3) = 1 − P (X ≥ 4) = = 0:984: ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 81 Use dbinom, pbinom, qbinom, rbinom for density (pmf), probability (cdf), quantile, and random numbers. > dbinom(0,5,0.25) #pmf P(X = 0) or density for discrete r.v. [1] 0.2373047 > pbinom(3,5,0.25) #cdf P(X <= 3) [1] 0.984375 > dbinom(3,5,0.25) #pmf P(X = 3) [1] 0.08789063 4.2 Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial Distributions x3.5 In a sampling survey, one typically draws w/o replacement. n draws w/o replacement Hypergeometric dist: M defect N-M Good X defect n-X Good (Use hyper in R: e.g. Total N Total n Figure 4.2: Illustration of sampling without replacement. 1 ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 82 dhyper, phyper, qhyper, rhyper) MN−M P (X = x) = x n−x ; N n for maxf0; n − N + Mg ≤ x ≤ min(n; M). Remarks ♠ When sampling with replacement, the distribution is binomial. ♠ When sampling a small fraction from a large population, like a poll, the trials are nearly Bernoulli. E.g. N = 40000 and n = 1000, # of families with income ≥$50K is 40%. 15999 15001 P (S jS ) = ≈ P (S ):P (S jS ··· S ) = ≈ P (S ): 2 1 39999 2 1000 1 999 39001 1000 N − n Fact: EX = np; var(X) = npq, where p = M . N − 1 N |corr{z factor} ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 83 Example 4.3 Capture-recapture to estimate population size Suppose that there are N animals in a region. Capture 5 of them, tag them and then release them back. Now among newly 10 captured animals, X of them are tagged. Probabilistic question: If N = 25, how likely is it that X = 2? The distribution of X is \hyper" with N = 25, M = 5, n = 10. 520 P (X = 2) = 2 8 = :385: 25 10 > dhyper(2,5, 20, 10) #pmf P(X = 2), N-M = 20 [1] 0.3853755 > phyper(2,5, 20, 10) #cdf P(X <= 2) [1] 0.6988142 Statistical question: What is the population size if we observe 3 ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 84 tagged animal? Thus, the realization of X, denoted by x, is 3. Since 5 EX = nN and an observed x is a reasonable estimate of EX, then 5 5n x = n or Nb = = 16:667 or 17: N x Definition: In a Bernoulli trial w/ P (S) = p, let Y be the number of draws required to get r successes and X = Y − r (so that it begins from 0). The distribution of X is called a negative Binomial (Use nbinom in R, namely dnbinom, pnbinom, qnbinom, rnbinom): x + r − 1 P (X = x) = prqx; x = 0; 1; 2; ··· r − 1 Y z }| { Y1 Y2 Y3 Yr FFSz }| { FFFFFFFSz }| { FFFSz }| { ··· FFFFFSz }| { When r = 1, Y follows a geometric distribution: P (Y = y) = pqy−1; y = 1; 2; ··· : 2 Recall that EYi = 1=p; var(Yi) = q=p . Then, F Y = Y1 + ··· + Yr and X = Y − r. ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 85 2 F EY = r=p, var(Y ) = rq=p . 2 F EX = EY − r = rq=p, var(X) = rq=p . 4.3 Poisson Distribution x3.6 Useful for modeling number of rare events (# of traffic accidents, # of houses damaged by fire; # of customer arrivals to a service center). When is the Poisson distribution (Use pois in R) reasonable? • independence: # of events occurring in any time interval is independent of # of events in any other non-overlaping interval; • rare: almost impossible for two or more events simultaneously; • constant rate: The average # of occurrences per time unit is ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 86 constant, denoted by λ. Poission dist with lambda = 0.5 Poission dist with lambda = 1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 dpois(x, 1) 0.2 dpois(x, 0.5) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (a) (b) Poission dist with lambda = 7 Poission dist with lambda = 15 0.15 0.08 0.10 0.04 dpois(x, 7) 0.05 dpois(x, 15) 0.00 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (c) (d) Figure 4.3: The Poisson Distribution (line diagram) for different values of λ Let X = # of occurrences in a unit time interval. It can be shown that the distribution Poisson(λ) is given by: e−λλx P (X = x) = ; x = 0; 1; 2; ··· : x! ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 87 x= 0:30 plot(x, dpois(x,0.5), xlab="(a)", type="n") #lambda = 0.5 for(i in 0:30) lines(c(i,i), c(0,dpois(i, 0.5)),lwd=1.5, col="blue") plot(x, dpois(x,15), xlab="(d)", type="h", col="blue", lwd=1.5) title("Poission dist with lambda = 0.5") Poisson approximation to the Binomial: When n is large and p is small, and n and 1=p are of the same order of magnitude (e.g., n = 100; p = 0:01; n = 1000; p = 0:003), then: n e−λλx pxqn−x ≈ ; with λ = np: x x! Example 4.4 Suppose that a manufacturing process produces 1% of defective products. Com- pute P( # of defectives ≥ 2 in 200 products). Note that Bin(200, 0.01) ≈ Poisson(2). Thus, P (X ≥ 2) = 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1) e−220 e−22 = 1 − − = 0:594 0! 1! Direct calculation shows that the probability is 0.595. ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 88 Expected value and variance: EX = λ and var(X) = λ. (Think of the Poisson approximation to the Binomial). 4.4 The normal distribution x4.3 Definition: A cont rv X has a normal dist ("dnorm, pnorm, qnorm, rnorm " for density, probability (cdf), quantile, and random number generator) if its pdf is given by ! 1 (x − µ)2 f(x; µ, σ) = p exp − ; −∞ < x < 1: 2πσ 2σ2 denoted by X ∼ N(µ, σ2). Facts: It can been shown that EX = µ and var(X) = σ2. Standard normal distribution refers to the specific case in ORF 245: Common Distributions { J.Fan 89 Figure 4.4: Normal - bell-shaped - distributions with different means (center) and variances (spreadness).
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