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Population Dynamics in Korogwe Demographic Surveillance System (Dss) in Tanga Region, Tanzania

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Population Dynamics in Korogwe Demographic Surveillance System (Dss) in Tanga Region, Tanzania The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgementTown of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Cape Published by the University ofof Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University POPULATION DYNAMICS IN KOROGWE DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM (DSS) IN TANGA REGION, TANZANIA By Mathias Leo Kamugisha University of Cape Town Thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce in partial fulfillment for the Award of Degree of Master of Philosophy in Demography University of Cape Town, South Africa November 2010 PLAGIARISM DECLARATION FORM This research is my original work, produced with normal supervisory assistance from my supervisor. All the relevant sources of knowledge that I have used during the course of writing this dissertation have been fully credited using the Harvard convention for citation and referencing. Also, this dissertation has not been submitted elsewhere for any academic or examination purpose at any other university. Signature Removed 22/11/2010 ---------------------------------------- -------------------------------- Mathias Kamugisha Date University of Cape Town 2 ABSTRACT A demographic surveillance system (DSS) is commonly used to generate and handle longitudinal follow-up data relating to demographic and health related events in a specified area. In the Korogwe DSS site, information on vital events such as births, deaths and migration has been collected since the establishment of the site in 2005. The aim was to establish demographic and epidemiological indices so as to assist in the evaluation of health related interventions. Data quality assessments were done to evaluate errors in age reporting and differential completeness of coverage by sex. This assessment was done using population pyramids, sex ratios, age ratios and summary indices. Estimates of the mortality levels were derived from information on deaths that was collected during household visits, whilst the cause of death information was obtained based on verbal autopsy questionnaires administered to parents or close relatives of the deceased. The birth history data were used to estimate the lifetime and period fertility for women aged 15-49 in the DSS site. Lifetime fertility was estimated using parity progression ratios, whilst period fertility was derived from age-specific rates. Estimates of crude migration rates, age specific migration rates and age profile measures were derived from a number of people moving in and out of the Korogwe DSS site and the person-years lived. The indices used to validate the quality of the data in terms of age and sex reporting indicate that the DSS data are of acceptable and usable quality. From our findings, the observed infant mortality was 64 deaths per 1,000 live births for males and 52 deaths per 1,000 live births for females. The under-five mortality rate was 87.9 per 1,000 live births for males and 81.9 per 1,000 live births for females among the non-migrant population. Under reporting of deaths was noted in Korogwe DSS. The problem was more severe among adults. The probability of dying among adults (30q20) in Korogwe DSS for males was found to be 2.0 times more for males and 2.4 times more for femalesUniversity than the ones computed of fromCape the Coale-Demeny Town North Model Life Tables level 20.6, indicating excess deaths due to HIV/AIDS in the early adult ages. Communicable diseases accounted for 88.7 per cent of all the deaths in children under-five years. The major cause of deaths for children under-five years was malaria (52.9 per cent). For HIV/AIDS, 90.5 per cent of the deaths involved individuals aged 15-45 years, although the percentage of male deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS appear to be too low. The reason for this low rate for males cannot be explained. The lifetime and period fertility estimates were found to be 5.6 and 5.1 children per woman, respectively, therefore showing that fertility has decreased in the recent past in Korogwe DSS. Our results show that there are higher rates of out migrants compared to in migrants for both males and females in Korogwe DSS. 3 In conclusion, this analysis was able to provide reasonable demographic estimates of mortality, fertility and migration using the longitudinal data collected from the Korogwe DSS site. The findings can be used to ascertain the population structure of Korogwe area, and they can also be used to evaluate the health interventions being implemented in the DSS site, and be used by the District authorities as input for setting priorities and planning purposes. University of Cape Town 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I thank God, the Almighty for sustaining me as I was working on my thesis (Psalms 138:7). My sincere gratitude to my employer, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, which through the administration of the National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR) Tanzania, granted me permission to pursue my studies at the University of Cape-Town (UCT) in South Africa. I am particularly indebted to my supervisor Professor Tom Moultrie for his patience, tireless efforts, invaluable ideas and insightfulness. I am indebted to thank Professor Rob Dorrington for imparting me with valuable knowledge throughout my studies. In close memory and heartfelt good wishes, I cannot forget my family members and friends who supported me financially and emotionally while I was too busy concerning on my studies, they missed me and I missed them, but we remained closely tied. Last, but not least, I am grateful to the staffs and my colleagues at the UCT for giving me moral and partly academic support without which my life as a student would be difficult. My fellow employees at the Tanga Medical Research Centre, Tanzania and Dr. Godfrey M. Mubyazi at NIMR Headquarters are remembered for their support and advice throughout my career as a research scientist. Finally I am very grateful to the Africa Malaria Network (AMANET) and Andrew Mellon Foundation for their financial assistance or sponsorship to me to undertake my studies successfully, and I pray God for them. University of Cape Town 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM DECLARATION FORM ............................................................................................................................... 2 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 1: BACKROUND AND RATIONALE .......................................................................................................... 10 1.1 INTRODUCTION AND RATIONALE ............................................................................................................... 10 1.2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ................................................................................................................................... 11 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 12 1.4 OBJECTIVES .............................................................................................................................................................. 12 1.4.1 Study area and population ................................................................................................................................................ 12 1.4.2 Site selection ....................................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.4.3 Study design on the establishment of Korogwe DSS ................................................................................................... 13 1.4.4 Recruitment and training of field workers. .................................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2: DATA QUALITY ON POPULATION NUMBERS BY AGE AND POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS ..................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 Baseline survey ................................................................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.2 Comparison of age distribution among those missing date of birth by sex and strata (urban and rural) ............. 19 2.2.3 Comparison of age distribution among those missing date of birth by year 2005 and 2007.................................. 20 2.2.4 Editing of dates of births for persons with unknown date and month of birth ....................................................... 21 2.2.5 Comparison of age distribution before and after adjustments (2005) ......................................................................
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