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Adaptive Model for Meeting Urban Forest Space Needs in Central Sulawesi

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Adaptive Model for Meeting Urban Forest Space Needs in Central Sulawesi International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 5, (2020), pp. 2008-2018 Adaptive Model For Meeting Urban Forest Space Needs In Central Sulawesi Akhbar1), Hasriani Muis1), Mahfudz 2), Golar*1), Adam Malik1), Muhammad Fardhal Pratama2), Rahmat Kurniadi Akhbar1) 1) Faculty of Forestry, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia 2) Faculty of Agriculture, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia Email: [email protected] Abstract This study aims to develop a model for analysing urban forest space requirements based on demographic factors that visible in urban areas. The study adopts a spatial analysis approach, in addition to a general analysis of urban forest space requirements using the Malthus exponential method. From this analysis the value 8.90 m2/people set was obtained and subsequently, used as a reference for determining the area of urban forest space. From the value of this constant, a projection model for exponential growth in urban forest spaces in the urban area of Kolonodale (a small city with ퟎ.ퟎퟐퟑퟐ풕 a population of ≤ 20,000 inhabitants) in the next 20 years: Yuf to-t = 9.7799풆 Keywords: Urban forest, Demography, Site description, Malthus exponential, Small town. 1. Introduction The population in urban areas is more than in rural areas. As well the physical development in these areas is faster. As a result, the balance of ecosystems will be affected in urban areas with a consequent increase of air temperature, air pollution, decrease of the groundwater and surface soil, flooding, seawater instruction, increase of the content of heavy metals in groundwater and others. With the aim to maintain the balance of the ecosystem, influenced by an increase in population and physical development in urban areas, is necessary to provide green open space (GOS). The integration of urban forest into urban planning and development is quite complex due to the increase in population [1]. The green open space needs to be increased every year, directly proportional to the increase in population. But, its availability is decreasing and probably will run out. This is because the increase in population will lead to an increase in housing needs. For that reason, the land necessary for development will increase and the green space will remain reduced [2]. In Indonesia, only a minimum of 30% of urban settlements become green open space (GOS) planning. Urban forests are also a part of this 30%. The determination of urban forest area in the provision of oxygen involves five parameters: population, motorized vehicle, livestock, heavy production of dry crust, and season. Meanwhile, water supply involves seven parameters: population, two correction factors, water supply capacity of drinking water companies, groundwater potential, and the ability of forests to store water). And the provision of activity space for city residents only involves one parameter (population). There are different type of parameters to be measured and analyzed. These parameters are involved in an analytical approach that needs to be simplified with the aim to determine uniform and efficient the green space in urban forest areas broad Several GOS studies that have been carried out with different types of parameters related to the provision of oxygen (02), a prominent urban space requirement. Gerakis (1974) holds an assertion in this regard. This finding, modified by Wisesa (1988) [4] reported that; household consumption water supply and activity space standards are contained in the Minister of Public Works Regulation No. 5 of 2008 [4]. Therefore, in this study, an analysis model of urban forest space requirements based on integrated demographic factors in urban areas will be developed using the Malthus exponential model. ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 2008 Copyright ⓒ 2020 SERSC International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 5, (2020), pp. 2008-2018 2. Research Methods The scientific research approach was adopted for this study to find solutions to the issues facing the development and application of technologies which are accurate, easy to understand and affordable. The main objective of this research is to discover the best model, for the determination of urban forest space requirements, based on demographic factors (like density and population growth). This model would be one, which could function effectively with the topology of such urban areas. An analysis was conducted to see the pattern of the city’s composition, including building mass and open space [5]. This analysis is the kind used to identify the texture of the spatial patterns (availability of green open spaces, buildings and infrastructure) in urban areas and the issue of irregular mass, as well as unavailability of space in urban areas. Demographic factors such as the population density of these areas were checked using a population density index analysis method, also studies environmental quality. Population growth rates for the next twenty years were also analysed using Malthus exponential growth. Mathematical models such as this, are utilized to find solutions and solve problems related to several scientific fields. One of such prominent fields, is the sector of demography. The Malthus population growth model, is also known as the exponential model [6]. The results of the analysis carried out on the population the rate of population growth, would serve as a reference in the prediction of urban forest space requirements. This study utilized the following materials: details of the latest high resolution satellite imagery available on Google Earth and SPOT 7 (government administration, land biophysics, urban spatial planning and regional infrastructure), satellite image data processing equipment (ArcGIS version 10.1), Microsoft Office Excel 2007, Microsoft Office Word 2007; computers and printers; Global Positioning System (GPS), cameras and other writing instruments. The land objects in the satellite imagery are interpreted based on the research requirements. Demographic data (number, density, population growth) were gathered from the Morowali Regency BPS data of 2017 [7], data from RTH results and field surveys. In order to interpret land objects image pre-processing (geometric, radiometric correction and image sharpening) was fist carried out, so as to obtain a good and true picture of land objects. [8] Image pre-processing is generally used to eliminate low frequency background interference, normalize the intensity of individual particles in the image, and remove reflections that cover the image portion. In spatial analysis, all thematic data related to the analysis of urban forest space requirements are overlaid in a projection system and a uniform map scale. Overlays are carried out to identify site features, which would act as a reference in predicting urban forest space requirements. Budi et al. [9] reported that the overlays, therefore, become one of the components needed to build a predictive model. To obtain the urban forest space area with the aim of providing oxygen (O2), Gerakis (1974) formula modified by Wisesa (1988) in [4], was used, and for household water supply and activity room standards the formula in the Minister of Work Regulation was used. Using this formula, urban needs are simplified through parameters that are directly related to the number of oxygen demanded by these areas, their water requirements, the research needs, as well as the space required by these areas. The model is modified as follows: 풓풕 Yuf to-t = ((Po+f-m+i풆 ) x Ci)/10,000 ……….. (1) 1 푃푡 r = (ln ) 푡 푃표 Description: Yuf to-t = T- year urban forest space requirement (ha). Ci = Urban forest space requirement according to specific goal Po = Population of the base year ISSN: 2005-4238 IJAST 2009 Copyright ⓒ 2020 SERSC International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology Vol. 29, No. 5, (2020), pp. 2008-2018 P1st1 = Population of year t r = rate of growth t = time period f = fertility; m = mortality; i = immigration 10,000 = number divided into units of hectares (1) = Equation from the results of the exponential model approach e = constant real number = 2.7183. ln = Natural logarithms are logarithms based e. According to the Gerakis (1974) formula modified by Wisesa (1988) reported that it is certain that to obtain the urban forest area using the formula: Lt = (Pt + Kt + Tt) / ((54) ( 0.9375) (2)) with: Lt = urban forest area in year t (m2); Pt = the amount of oxygen needed for the population in year t; Kt = the amount of oxygen needed for motorized vehicles in the t year; Tt = the amount of oxygen needed for livestock in year t; 54 = is a constant which shows that 1 m2 of land area produces 54 grams of dry weight of plants per day; 0.9375 = is a constant indicating that 1 gram of plant dry weight is equivalent to 0.9375 grams of oxygen production; 2 = the number of seasons in Indonesia. In this study the Ci value for oxygen, as well as the value of the city’s population are represented in units of m2/s. This refers to the value of these constants; and human oxygen requirements for the area (grams/day). This study is basically concerned with and limited to oxygen requirements in respect to the number of city residents. As stated in the Minister of Public Works Regulation No. 5 of 2008, the area of forest needs in water supply uses the formula La = (Po x K (1 + RC)t-PAM-Pa) / Z with: La = the area of urban forest that must be built; P0 = total population; K = water consumption / capita (ltr / day); R = rate of increase in water use (usually in line with the rate of increase in local city population);C = correction factor (the figure here depends on the government's efforts to reduce the rate of population growth); PAM = The capacity of water companies to supply water (m3/ year); t = year; Pa = the current potential of ground water; Z = the ability of the city forest to store water (73,000 m3/ ha / year).
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