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CD02-11 Viability Market Values & Assumptions

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CD02-11 Viability Market Values & Assumptions For: Worthing Borough Council Appendix III Market Values & Assumptions Research CIL Viability Assessment - Worthing Borough November 2019 DSP18551 Dixon Searle Partnership Elm House, Tanshire Park, Shackleford Road Elstead, Surrey, GU8 6LB www.dixonsearle.co.uk Contents Page Introduction 2 Economic Context / Housing Market Context 3 Residential Market Review 12 - Land Registry New-Build Data 12 - Land Registry Re-Sale Data 37 - New-Build Housing Asking Price Research 68 - DSP Seaside Values 73 - Zoopla Average Values Heat Map 73 - DSP Residential Value Levels 75 Retirement, Sheltered and Extra Care Housing Research 78 Commercial Economic Context 81 - Yield Guide – Knight Frank 87 Commercial Property Values Research 89 - Commercial Values Data - CoStar 89 - Commercial Values Data – Valuation Office Agency 91 Stakeholder Consultation 92 Land Values Economic Context / Research 94 - Benchmark Land Values 99 Note: CoStar property resource extracts for research base follow the above. Worthing Borough Council 1.0 Introduction Covid-19 Rider – March 2020 – The review work and reporting for this assessment has been assembled at a time when there remain economic uncertainties associated with Brexit. At the time of finalising this report in terms of the latest context, the Global COVID-19 (Coronavirus) situation is now dominating all aspects of the economy. Although the consequences of the global pandemic cannot be known, potentially this may influence matters such as viability or deliverability, particularly in the short term. It is only possible to work with the known, appropriate and available information at this point in time - reflected through the stated, well established information sources. Local Authorities and others may need to consider how this picture may change, monitor developments as far as possible and consider whether it is necessary to update evidence in due course. This is consistent with the approach that is typically taken already (e.g. as supplementary information is provided via an Addendum or similar in some cases) when either a significant amount of time passes, or other circumstances change between the date of the original evidence and, say, submission for examination. In the meantime, this work contains information on the impact of varied assumptions. 1.1 Referred to within DSP’s main report, this document – Appendix III - provides an overview of the research undertaken into residential property values, together with the wider economic conditions. Collectively, this research aims to help inform the assumptions setting for the sample residential appraisals and provides background evidence by building a picture of values and the variation of those within the Worthing borough. 1.2 This report will also provide the Council with an indication of the type and sources of data that it could monitor, revisit and update, to further inform its ongoing work where necessary in the future. Doing so would provide valuable context for monitoring the delivery subsequent to setting policy positions and aspirations. 1.3 It should be acknowledged that this is high level work and a great deal of variance may be seen in practice from one development to another (with site-specific characteristics). This data gathering process adopted by DSP involves the review of a range of information sources, so as to inform an overview that is relevant to and appropriate for the project context. The aim here is to consider changes and trends and therefore enable us to assess with the Council an updated context picture so far as is suitable and practically possible. 1.4 This Appendix uses a range of extracts and quotes (shown in italic text to distinguish that externally sourced information from DSP’s commentary and context / analysis), with sources acknowledged. DSP 2019 – Project ref. 18551 2 Worthing Borough Council 2.0 Economic / Housing Market Context 2.1 Bank of England – Base Rate 2.1.1 The current Bank of England base rate is 0.75%. The Bank of England monetary policy committee met in September 2019 and decided to keep the base rate at the same level that was set in August 2018. Bank of England – Agent’s Summary of Business Conditions 2019 Q3 2.1.2 The full report (published 20 June 2019) is available at: www.bankofengland.co.uk/ agents-summary/2019/2019-q3. 2.1.3 Report extracts: • ‘Activity continued to slow in both the commercial property and housing markers, reflecting reduced interest from overseas investors and Brexit uncertainty.’ • ‘Activity slowed in both investor and occupier markets. Contracts in many parts of the country reported reduced interest from overseas investors.’ • ‘Investors were particularly cautious about retail property, amid concerns about a correction in values. Rents on retail premises fell further and vacancy rates rose in many areas.’ • ‘By contrast, demand for industrial and warehouse property remained strong. Values and rents were boosted by the lack of supply.’ • ‘The housing market continued to soften, reflecting deteriorating supply and demand. Contacts said buyers were taking longer to make decisions and expected lower prices or other incentives before committing to purchase.’ • ‘Larger housebuilders reported frequently having to offer incentives, discounts or part-exchange in order to complete new-build sales. Developers noted an increase in buyers pulling out transactions in London and Southern England, sales taking longer to complete and prices falling. A number of them cited Brexit uncertainty as the main reason for this.’ • ‘Estate agents reported softer demand in the secondary market, though demand for lower priced properties were more resilient.’ DSP 2019 – Project ref. 18551 3 Worthing Borough Council 2.2 Office for National Statistics – UK House Price Index (August 2019) 2.2.1 The full report (published 16 October 2019) is available at: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/ inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2019. 2.2.2 Headline reads: ‘UK annual house price growth rate increased in August 2019.’ 2.2.3 Report extracts: • ‘Average house prices in the UK increased by 1.3% in the year to August 2019, up from 0.8% in July 2019 but remain below the increases seen this time last year. Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the South and East of England.’ • ‘The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.4% over the year to August 2019, followed by the South East where prices fell by 0.6% over the year.’ • ‘The average UK house price was £235,000 in August 2019; this is £3,000 higher than August 2018. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.8% between July 2019 and August 2019, compared with a rise of 0.3% in average prices during the same period a year earlier, in July 2018 and August 2018. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.6% between July 2019 and August 2019.’ • ‘House price growth in Wales increased by 4.5% in the year to August 2019, up from 3.8% in July 2019, with the average house price at £168,000.’ • ‘House prices in Scotland increased by 1.6% in the year to August 2019, up from 1.5% in the year to July 2019, with the average house price in Scotland now £155,000.’ • ‘The average house price in England increased by 1.1% over the year to August 2019, up from 0.5% in the year to July 2019, with the average house price in England now £251,000.’ • ‘Northern Ireland house prices increased by 3.5% over the year to Quarter 2 (April to June) 2019. Northern Ireland remains the cheapest UK country to purchase a property in, with the average house price at £137,000.’ • ‘At a regional level, the North East was the English region with the highest annual house price growth, with prices increasing by 3.3% in the year to August 2019. This was followed by the North West, increasing by 3.1%.’ DSP 2019 – Project ref. 18551 4 Worthing Borough Council • ‘The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.4% over the year to August 2019, down from a fall of 1.2% in July 2019. This was followed by the South East, where prices fell by 0.6% over the year.’ • ‘Focusing on London in more detail; while still falling over the year, in recent months there has been a strengthening in the annual rate for Inner London, which is now at its highest rate since December 2018. Both Inner and Outer London seem to follow similar trends in house price growth, which changes in Outer London tending to appear slightly after those in Inner London.’ • ‘While house prices in London and the South East continue to fall over the year, the areas remain the most expensive places to purchase a property at an average of £473,000 and £326,000 respectively. The North East continued to have the lowest average house price at £135,000 and is the only English region yet to surpass its pre-economic downturn peak.’ 2.3 HM Land Registry – UK and England House Price Index (August 2019) 2.3.1 The full report for the UK (published 16 October 2019) is available at: www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2019. The report for England (published 16 October 2019) is available at: www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-august-2019. UK House price index summary: 2.3.2 Headline statistics: • ‘The average price of a property in the UK was £234,853.’ • ‘The annual price change for a property in the UK was 1.3%.’ • ‘The monthly price change for a property in the UK was 0.8%.’ • ‘The monthly index figure (January 2015 = 100) for the UK was 123.2.’ 2.3.3 Economic statement extracts: • ‘UK house prices grew by 1.3% in the year to August 2019, up from 0.8% in July 2019.
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