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Jellyfish Blooms and Management Implications in the Northeast Atlantic

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Jellyfish Blooms and Management Implications in the Northeast Atlantic Jellyfish Blooms and Management Implications in the Northeast Atlantic Adam Stuart Kennerley Chrysaora hysoscella in St Ives Harbour, 2016 ©Adam Kennerley Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of East Anglia 2018 This copy of the thesis has been submitted on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that use of any information derived there from must be in accordance with the current UK Copyright Law. In addition, any quotations or extract must include full attribution. ABSTRACT Jellyfish blooms are known to impact adversely a variety of industries, including fishing and tourism. A review of scientific literature indicates that blooms and their impacts may intensify in the Northeast Atlantic. There are also indications that the public perceive that blooms are becoming more common in this region. This research aimed to identify whether blooms and their increases across the Northeast Atlantic are a possibility, and, if so, generate an understanding of the potential economic impacts to fishing and tourism. GIS based maps of jellyfish presence and bloom occurrence were developed using current understanding of physiological thresholds for a variety of jellyfish species. The maps indicated that increases in bloom occurrence in the future is a possibility for several species, particularly in waters to the southwest of the UK. Based on these results, case study locations associated with coastal tourism (St Ives) and fishery activity (Brixham and Newlyn) were selected to assess whether and how blooms could cause impacts to these, applying an ecosystem services approach to measure potential economic and welfare changes. Survey responses from fishers and tourists were used to explore future hypothetical bloom scenarios, and quantitative indications of how the industries would operate and respond were derived. Fishers envisaged displacement effort as the main impact, with additional operational costs coming from increased fuel use while fishing during blooms. Tourists reported blooms would impede leisure activities, resulting in less beach visits. These findings enabled quantification of welfare impact due to loss of recreational activities, as well as subsequent decreases in holiday expenditure that impacts the local economy. Management options were explored during the tourism survey (anti-jellyfish nets) and mitigation considerations i were made in relation to the fishery findings (informing skippers of the costs certain bloom responses). Based on the study results, policy and management recommendations, as well as future research opportunities, are discussed. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors at UEA and Cefas, Dr Irene Lorenzoni, Dr Tiziana Luisetti and Dr Nick Taylor. I would firstly like to thank you because you gave me the opportunity to carry out this research which I have enjoyed immensely. I am also grateful for your precious guidance and support which has steered me through a highly interdisciplinary research project that at times has been really challenging, particularly as I had little experience in some of the disciplines prior to starting this research. I am also grateful for your patience with me during the write up and the redrafts of chapters that were required. This project was funded by the UEA/Cefas Strategic Alliance. I would like to thank UEA for their funding contributions and for also providing me with all the necessary tools to complete this research. I am also grateful to Cefas for their contribution to the funding and introducing me to a range of scientists (in both the Lowestoft and Weymouth labs), whose expertise and guidance greatly improved my ability to collect and analyse data. Special thanks are also reserved for the epidemiology team at Cefas Weymouth (special mentions to Dr Nicola McPherson, David Ryder, Dr Hannah Tidbury and Dr Paul Stebbing). I learnt a lot during my trips to Weymouth in terms of the GIS modelling section of the research (techniques and data sources) that allowed me to provide output that related to my first research question. iii I would also like to thank Dr Maria Giovanna Palmieri and Dr Silvia Ferrini at UEA, who dedicated their time to help me understand surveying and economic techniques that enabled me to collect data, pertinent to my second research question. I would also like to thank all the people who participated in this research during the fieldwork surveys. To the 33 fishermen in Brixham and Newlyn who took time out of your busy working day to answer my survey questions, I thank you for your insights that have provided first-hand information on how the fishing industry in the Northeast Atlantic responds to jellyfish blooms. You also made me feel very welcome whilst I was walking around the harbours trying to get interviews and when we bumped into each outside of working hours. To the 182 holiday makers in St Ives, thank you for taking time out of your trip to complete my surveys. The data collection could not have gone more to plan than it did and your enthusiasm during our conversations made the fieldwork in Cornwall one of the highlights of this research experience. I am also grateful to those of you who continued contact with me after we had parted ways, to report jellyfish sightings and send me photos. During the fieldwork in Brixham, Newlyn and St Ives, I received help for which I am grateful. Firstly, I am thankful to Brixham harbour security for introducing me to some of the fishermen who I went on to survey and collect data from. I would also like to thank Dave McCormack, Beth Siddons and Tom Tangye for volunteering as interviewers during the tourism investigation fieldwork in St Ives. Your contributions helped me to get more data than I would have achieved on my own. I would also like acknowledge the three local fishermen and women iv and the five visitors to Cromer beach who piloted the surveys with me. Your input enabled me to assess the technical accuracy of the questions as well as re- draft ones that were initially unanswerable. I would like to thank the researchers affiliated with the 3S research group, the Tyndall Centre and my cohort of PhD students at UEA. I feel that I have benefited from a stimulating research environment and conversations with you have inspired me to think about my research in ways that I never would have on my own. Finally, I would like to thank my family for always being supportive and on the other end of the phone any time that I needed to talk during my time as a PhD student. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract I Acknowledgments III Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction and Rationale 1 1.2 Aims and Research Questions 3 1.3 Thesis structure 4 Chapter 2 – Jellyfish Blooms and Their Consequences to Coastal and Marine Industries 7 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Jellyfish Blooms and their Impacts 8 2.2.1 Fisheries 10 2.2.2 Finfish Aquaculture 13 2.2.3 Coastal Tourism 16 2.3 Are Blooms on the Increase? 21 2.3.1 Causes of Blooms 23 2.3.2 The Example of North East Atlantic 25 2.3.2.1 Jellyfish of the Northeast Atlantic 28 2.4 The Ecosystem Services Approach 34 vi 2.4.1 Application of ES approach to blooms in the Northeast Atlantic 42 2.5 Conclusion 46 Chapter 3 – Methodology 49 3.1 Introduction 49 3.2 Research Positionality 50 3.3 Jellyfish Suitability Mapping 52 3.3.1 Jellyfish Prey and of Environmental Data 52 3.3.2 Species Selection and Environmental Thresholds 60 3.3.3 Methodological Steps of the Mapping 67 3.3.4 Future Jellyfish Blooms 69 3.3.5 Validation 70 3.4 Impacts of Future Blooms 72 3.5 The Fishing Industry 75 3.5.1 Survey Design and Administration 76 3.6 Finfish Aquaculture 80 3.7 Coastal Tourism and Recreation 81 3.7.1 Survey Design and Administration 83 3.7.2 Economic Methods for Analysis of Interactions 88 3.8 Research Ethics 92 3.9 Safety Training 93 3.10 Conclusion 94 vii Chapter 4 – Mapping Suitability of the Northeast Atlantic for Jellyfish Blooms 95 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Study Species 96 4.3 Environmental Data Layers 98 4.4 Interactions between Environmental Factors 100 4.5 Plankton Abundance Cross Validation 105 4.6 Reclassifications 108 4.7 Suitability Maps 109 4.8 Comparisons between Map Output and Previous Blooms 117 4.9 Future Risk 119 4.10 Conclusions 123 4.10.1 Limitations and Future Map Development 126 4.10.2 Further Work 130 Chapter 5 – Jellyfish Bloom Impacts on Fisheries 133 5.1 Introduction 133 5.2 Study Locations 134 5.3 Survey Respondents 137 5.4 Experience of Blooms in the Northeast Atlantic 140 5.5 Responses to Hypothetical Future Bloom Increases 142 5.5.1 Current Fishing Overheads 151 viii 5.6 Potential Future Bloom Costs 153 5.6.1 Fuel Cost Estimation Scenario 1: moving to different fishing grounds 159 5.6.2 Fuel Cost Estimation in Scenario 2: adding trawls 161 5.7 Costs of additional time out at sea 164 5.8 Conclusion 166 Chapter 6 – Jellyfish Bloom Impacts on Coastal Tourism 170 6.1 Introduction 170 6.2 Study Location 171 6.3 Survey Data Collection 173 6.4 Attitudes, Previous Experience and Knowledge of Jellyfish 179 6.5 Tourism Expenditure Changes Associated with Blooms 184 6.5.1 Visitor Expenditure at Risk from Blooms 185 6.5.2 Losses through Jellyfish Interactions 188 6.5.2.1 Scenario 1 – Closed Beaches 190 6.5.2.2 Scenario 2 – Blooms on Open Beaches 192 6.5.2.3 Comparing Scenario Impact 195 6.6 Impacts of Blooms on Ecosystem Use Value Welfare 198 6.7 Future Management of Jellyfish Blooms 206 6.8 Summary 212 6.9 Conclusion 216 ix Chapter 7 – Discussion and Conclusions 219 7.1 Introduction 219 7.2 Jellyfish Populations in the Northeast Atlantic 220 7.2.1 Further Research 224 7.3 Bloom Impact Projections 226 7.3.1 Fisheries 227 7.3.1.1 Further Research 229 7.3.2 Tourism 232 7.3.2.1 Further Research 234 7.3.3 Reflection on the Responses to Bloom Scenarios 235 7.4 Mitigating the Impacts of Jellyfish Blooms 238 7.4.1 GIS Mapping 238 7.4.2 Fisheries 240 7.4.3 Tourism 242 7.4.4 General Recommendations 247 7.5 General Contribution to Knowledge 249 7.6 Concluding Remarks 251 References 254 Appendix A Contributions of Literature Sources to Species Thresholds 284 Appendix B.
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