The Declining Share of Sikhs in the Population of India
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Centre’s Blog on Religion Data of Census 2011 Religion Data of Census 2011: VIII The Declining share of Sikhs in the population of India During 2001-11, the Sikhs have grown at a much lower rate compared to the Hindus; who themselves have grown slower than the total population of India. Sikhs have recorded decadal growth of 8.42 percent as against 16.76 percent of the Hindus and 17.72 percent of the total population. The rate of growth of Sikhs outside Punjab has been merely 4.42 percent. The data indicates not only a decline in the share of Sikhs, particularly in the Punjab and its neighbourhood, but also a widespread contraction of the absolute number of Sikhs in several States and a large number of districts across the country. The decline in the share of Sikhs has been happening for a while now, but the widespread contraction that has happened during 2001-11 seems new. The spread of Sikhs beyond the Punjabi neighbourhood is not as big as is popularly believed; now the footprint of Sikhs across the country seems to be contracting. This contraction of a community that is religiously valuable and strategically sensitive ought to be a matter of serious concern. Number and Share of Sikhs, 1951-2011 In the Table here, we have Number and Growth of Sikhs (counted), 1951-2011 compiled the number of Sikhs as Census Persons Percent Growth Growth counted in the seven decennial Year in ’000s Share Sikhs % Hindus % Censuses since 1951. Up to 1981, 1951 6,219 1.74 – – the Sikhs in India were growing 1961 7,845 1.79 26.15 20.73 considerably faster than the Hindus 1971 10,379 1.89 32.30 23.68 and the total population; their share 1981 13,078 1.97 26.00 21.27 1991 16,260 1.94 24.33 25.09 in the population of India in this 2001 19,216 1.87 18.88 20.35 period rose from 1.74 percent in 2011 20,833 1.72 8.42 16.76 1951 to 1.97 percent in 1981. After 1981, however, the rate of growth of Sikhs began to lag behind that of the Hindus and the total population; and, the share of Sikhs in the population of India began to slowly decline. During the last decade of 2001-11, the gap between the growth of Sikhs and the rest of the population has become very wide and their share in India has now reached below their share of 1.74 percent recoded in the first Census after Independence and Partition. The decline of Sikhs has happened only after 1991 Number and Growth of Sikhs (Corrected), 1951-2011 The number of Sikhs in 1991 in the Census Persons Percent Growth Growth Year in ’000s Share Sikhs % Hindus % Table above is under-estimated because it excludes the 1951 6,219 1.74 – – 1961 7,845 1.79 26.15 20.73 considerable number of Sikhs in 1971 10,379 1.89 32.30 23.68 Jammu and Kashmir where the 1981 13,092 1.93 26.14 24.06 Census could not be held during 1991 16,423 1.95 25.44 22.70 that year. In the previous year, the 2001 19,216 1.87 17.01 19.94 Census was not conducted in 2011 20,833 1.72 8.42 16.76 Assam, though the number of Sikhs there is not very significant. If we correct for these exclusions by interpolating the numbers for these two censuses, then we get the Centre for Policy Studies 1 www.cpsindia.org Centre’s Blog on Religion Data of Census 2011 figures as shown in the Table here. From this Table, it is seen that the rate of growth of Sikhs remained above that of the Hindus even during 1981-1991. It is only during the last two decades that they have begun to grow at a slower pace than others; in these two decades, their share in the population of India has come down from 1.95 to 1.72 percent. The decline during 2001-11 has been much sharper than in the previous decade of 1991-2001. In the following, we try to document the various dimensions of this decline. The decline of Sikhs is more pronounced outside Punjab The major part of the decline in the Growth of Sikhs and in Rest of India, 1961-2011 growth of Sikhs is, of course, Sikhs in Rate of In Rest Rate of contributed by Punjab, where more Census Punjab Growt of India Growth than 75 percent of the Sikhs of India Year in’000s h in % in’000s in % 1961 6,178 – 1,667 – live. Their rate of growth in Punjab 1971 8,160 32.08 2,219 33.11 was fairly high up to 1991; after that 1981 10,199 24.99 2,893 30.37 there has been a rapid decline. But 1991 12,768 25.19 3,655 26.34 what is remarkable in the data 2001 14,592 14.29 4,624 26.52 compiled in the Table here is the 2011 16,005 9.68 4,828 4.42 sudden and sharp decline in the rate of growth of Sikhs outside Punjab. The rate of growth of Sikhs in the rest of India outside Punjab had remained fairly high even in 1991-2001, when their growth in Punjab had declined to only 14.29 percent. But in the last decade of 2001-11, the growth of Sikhs outside Punjab has declined to just 4.42 percent from 26.52 percent of the previous decade. Proportion of Sikhs residing in Punjab has increased for the first time This is the first time since the creation of Proportion of Sikhs Residing in Punjab (in%) the current reorganised State of Punjab, 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 when the Sikhs outside Punjab have 78.75 78.62 77.90 77.75 75.94 76.82 grown slower than those in Punjab. The number of Sikhs residing in Punjab as a proportion of the total Sikhs in India had been declining continuously since 1961; it came down from around 79 percent in 1961 to 76 percent in 2001. It has now risen, for the first time, to around 77 percent. Distribution of Sikhs across India To understand this extraordinary decline of the Sikhs both in and outside Punjab, let us begin by looking at the distribution of Sikhs across India. In the Table below, we have compiled the number, proportion and growth rates of Sikhs in 1991, 2001 and 2011 for all the major States of India with more than 0.10 percent of Sikhs in their population. The 14 States listed here account for all but about 2.34 lakh Sikhs in the country. We also show the district-wise numbers of Sikhs counted in 2011 in Map VIII-A. Nearly 90 percent of all Sikhs are in the Punjab and its immediate neighbourhood A striking features of the Table and the Map below is the concentration of Sikhs in the Punjab and its neighbourhood. Of 2.08 crore Sikhs enumerated in the country in 2011, 1.60 crore are in the Punjab alone. Of the remaining 48 lakh Sikhs, 14.6 lakh are in Haryana, Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh, which formed part of the Punjab prior to its reorganisation in the sixties. Another 11 lakh Sikhs are in the neighbouring States Centre for Policy Studies 2 www.cpsindia.org Centre’s Blog on Religion Data of Census 2011 of Jammu & Kashmir and Rajasthan. Thus the immediate neighbourhood of Punjab accounts for about 26 out of the 48 lakh Sikhs outside Punjab. Sikhs in Punjab and these adjoining States together form 89.2 percent of all Sikhs in the country. StateNumber of Sikhs Percentage Share Growth Rate % 1991- 2001- PUNJAB1991 2001 2011 1991 2001 2011 2001 2011 INDIA 1,64,22,546 1,92,15,730 2,08,33,116 1.95 1.87 1.72 17.01 8.42 PUNJAB 1,27,67,697 1,45,92,387 1,60,04,754 62.95 59.91 57.69 14.29 9.68 Haryana 9,56,836 11,70,662 12,43,752 5.81 5.54 4.91 22.35 6.24 Chandigarh 1,30,288 1,45,175 1,38,329 20.29 16.12 13.11 11.43 -4.72 Himachal P 52,209 72,355 79,896 1.01 1.19 1.16 39.01 10.42 J&K 1,62,802 2,07,154 2,34,848 2.11 2.04 1.87 27.24 13.37 Rajasthan 6,49,174 8,18,420 8,72,930 1.48 1.45 1.27 26.07 6.66 NCT of Delhi 4,55,657 5,55,602 5,70,581 4.84 4.01 3.40 21.93 2.70 Uttar Pradesh 5,11,739 6,78,059 6,43,500 0.38 0.41 0.32 32.50 -5.10 Uttarakhand 1,64,036 2,12,025 2,36,340 2.77 2.50 2.34 29.26 11.47 Madhya P 1,10,506 1,50,772 1,51,412 0.23 0.25 0.21 36.44 0.42 Chhattisgarh 50,605 69,621 70,036 1991 0.33 0.27 37.58 0.60 Jharkhand 65,758 83,358 71,422 1.95 0.31 0.22 26.76 -14.32 Maharashtra 1,61,184 2,15,337 2,23,247 62.95 0.22 0.20 33.60 3.67 Gujarat 33,044 45,587 58,246 5.81 0.09 0.10 37.96 27.77 Within these neighbouring States, the Sikhs are concentrated largely in a few districts adjoining Punjab.