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Insurance and September 11 One Year After

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Insurance and September 11 One Year After Insurance and September 11 One Year After Insurance and September 11 One Year After Impact, Lessons and Unresolved Issues Edited by Patrick M. Liedtke and Christophe Courbage International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics "The Geneva Association" Route de Malagnou 53 Tel. +41-22-707 66 00 CH-1208 Geneva Fax. +41-22-736 75 36 http://www.genevaassociation.org E-mail:[email protected] Copyright © 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics ISBN 2-9700339-1-7 First published August 2002 The Geneva Association Route de Malagnou 53, CH-1208 Geneva Second edition Printed and cover graphics by PWS Route des Jeunes 33, CH-1227 Carouge All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Except in the United States of America, this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. British Library Cataloging in Publication Data Cataloging-in-Publication data applied for Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Insurance and September 11 - One Year After / edited by Patrick M. Liedtke and Christophe Courbage. ISBN 2-9700339-1-7 Contents Introduction……………………………………………………………………… 1 September 11: Might of the Moment – Enduring Effects………………………... 1 by Patrick M. Liedtke and Christophe Courbage September 11, 2001: The Terrorist Attack against the United States…………….. 6 by William E. Bailey Part 1. National Perspective………….………….……………………..……….. 9 The Impact of the September 11 Attacks on the American Insurance Industry..… 10 by Robert P. Hartwig Cover for Terrorist Acts in Europe after 11 September………………………….. 43 by Jean-Louis Marsaud The Impact of the September 11 Attacks on the Austrian Insurance Market…….. 54 by Herbert Retter The Financial Impact of September 11 on the French Insurance Market..……….. 56 by Denis Kessler and Marc Lamère The Implications of 11 September for the German Insurance Industry …………. 70 by Michael Wolgast The Events of 11 September 2001 and Italian Insurance………...…………….… 87 by Alfonso Desiata Insurance Consequences of 11 September, One Year after …………….…..……. 92 The Norwegian Case by Olav Vannebo The Impact of the Terrorist Attacks on the Polish Insurance Market ……………. 98 by Krystina Baran Insurance Consequences of 11 September the UK Insurance Market .…………... 102 by Mary Francis Insuring Terrorism Losses in Switzerland: Assessment and Definitions....……… 117 by Mathias C. Berger The Current Condition of the Japanese Insurance Market ….………………….... 121 after the Terrorist Attacks of September 11 by Katsuo Matsushita Insurance and September 11 - One Year after: Impact on Indian Insurance…….. 130 by K. Ramachandran Part 2. Company Perspective…………………………………………………… 149 The Impact of 9/11 on the United States Insurance …...…………………………. 150 Industry’s Business Interruption Underwriting by William E. Bailey Complexity of Managing a Global Company -.………………………………….. 163 Regional Exposure versus Global Exposure by Gérard de la Martinière The Effects on Business Interruption and Important Trends in the Future ……… 171 by Werner Meier Property Insurance - One Year after 11 September………………………………. 176 by Hans-Jürgen Schinzler Aviation Insurance - One Year after WTC………………………………………. 189 by Colin Williams Part 3. Systemic Perspective………………..…………………………………... 197 Does WTC Matter for the Investment Policy of P/C Insurance Companies ?…… 198 by Paul M. Achleitner, Jörg H. Biebel and Daniel Wichels Challenges to Financial Stability……………….………………………………… 208 by Geoffrey Bell Terrorism Insurance Post 9/11: Principles for …………………………………… 215 Designing Private/Public Programs by Lawrence D. Cluff and Stefanie Jonkman On Insurability and its Limits…………………………………………………….. 227 by Christophe Courbage and Patrick M. Liedtke The Public Role of Insurers in Man-Made Catastrophes…………………………. 235 by Gordon Stewart Global Terrorism and the Insurance Industry: New Challenges ………………… 243 and Policy Responses by Michael Wolgast Postcript…..……………………………………………………………………… 259 September 12: Reflections beyond Insurance and Financial Services…………… 260 by Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Appendix………………………………………………………………………… 275 The Geneva Association……………………………………………………….. 275 Introduction September 11: Might of the Moment – Enduring Effects Much has already been written on the September 11 attacks and their impact on our lives. The perspectives, from the political to the social, from the philosophical to the economic, are as diverse as the backgrounds and the motivations of their authors. The Geneva Association, taking - due to the nature of our research organisation - a strategic macroeconomic view of events, first thought that producing an overview of the impact of September 11 on the national insurance markets would be enough to complement the work that has been going on in other institutions and insurance companies. However, after receiving such extraordinary encouragement from many different quarters, including political and media ones, we decided that there was indeed a further role to play. We needed to highlight the key issues that the insurance industry has been, is and will be facing as a consequence of the September 11 attacks. We strive not only to research in abstract terms but also to create and disseminate a better understanding about the direct effects of the events themselves as well as their impact on the mechanisms of insurance and the relevance of insurance as a basic and fundamental tool in the organisation of our modern economies. Following the huge success of the first special issue of our working papers “Etudes & Dossiers” related to the September 11 events – which was reprinted twice – we are now publishing a special monograph with the title “Insurance and September 11 - One Year After: Impact, Lessons and Unresolved Issues”. It regroups the updated and in some cases extended contributions of the first issue. With hindsight we can say that, almost a year later, the general picture is somewhat different. This corresponds to part one of the monograph. Part two looks at specific lines of business from a company perspective and discusses what the key issues and problems are. In the final third part, the contributions deal with systemic questions linked to the event and draw a broader picture of where we are still facing unresolved issues. At the very end we have included a contribution in the form of a postscript that takes a much broader view. Some things are unthinkable until they happen – and then they rest as an enduring imprint in the collective memory of humankind. September 11, 2001, has been a day that profoundly marked the history of the United States and of the whole world. The general suffering, the loss of thousands of human lives and the thoughts and images it has provoked will stay in our minds probably for as long as we live. For the insurance industry, it has proven to be the most expensive event in history. As of today, it is still difficult to assess the financial insured loss. Yet, it is largely assumed that the costs for insurers worldwide could amount to approximately US$ 40-50 billion. As a sinister comparison, the second most expensive catastrophe, Hurricane Andrew, is estimated to 2 Liedtke and Courbage have caused losses of US$ 20 billion (in today’s dollars), less than half the amount of the losses on September 11. Following this dramatic event, the insurance and reinsurance industry have been facing some important challenges to their capacity. At the time when this introduction was written, it seemed that the large majority of the risk carriers involved would be able to meet their obligations. This is remarkable as there was not a single premium dollar set aside specifically for such an event, which figured in no insurance scenario. Plus it probably amounts to well over twice the sum for the most expensive event ever in the history of insurance claims, and this at the end of an extended soft market. In insurance, risk coverage is usually given (sold) under specified circumstances for suffered losses due to ex ante defined improbable events. Understanding the frequency and severity of a potential claim and when and how the losses that arise from an insured event are to be compensated is a necessary precondition for sound insurance business. More information, more efficient tools and instruments will improve the understanding why, when, where and how certain events happen. This leads to better business models for insurers and their clients. We are, however, from time to time confronted with events that we would have qualified ex ante as impossible, unrealistic or that we were simply unaware of – the unthinkable. The use of jumbo jets as flying bombs crashing into the former Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York City is such an event. It is an event that under the terms and conditions of many insurance policies qualifies for compensation, regardless of the lack of understanding or foresight at the time the contracts were negotiated that such an occurrence could ever take place. The future costs of any claim have to do with uncertainties, probabilities and finally risk management in a dynamic sense. The price determined in a contract at any given moment expresses a reasonable probability at best, but more often than not previous experiences extrapolated into the future. A new experience then triggers a readjustment in the markets through two mechanisms: the adjustment in premium due to a better comprehension of the vulnerabilities associated with an insurance contract and, if the readjustment follows a major event with a big capacity reducing effect, a temporary recapitalisation effort to adapt again the reserves of the risk carriers. The new information is then absorbed.
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