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Deloitte's' Power Market Study 2030: a New Outlook for the Energy Industry

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Deloitte's' Power Market Study 2030: a New Outlook for the Energy Industry Power Market Study 2030 A new outlook for the energy industry Hamburg, April 2018 Management summary General market environment: The traditional utilities business remains under significant pressure; major trends identified in Deloitte’s 2015 Power Market Study remain valid for generation, distribution and consumption New drivers of change: Major players have made necessary adjustments, but new market realities have emerged – generation is driven by consolidation and recovering wholesale prices, distribution by the interplay between high- voltage transportation requirements and need for new revenue streams, and consumption by changing customer expectations and transformation needs Implications: Based on the new market environment, utilities have to re- prioritize their business model portfolio and investment decisions, as well as to adjust their Target Operating Model into an even clearer set-up Monitor Deloitte 2018 2 Recap: Power Market Study 2025 (1/2) Main challenges and trends of Deloitte’s Power Market Study 2025 published in 2015 have been confirmed over the last 2 years and are largely still valid Power Market Study 2025 Implications • Deloitte’s 2015 study has been Power Market Study 2025 focusing on the future of the power The traditional business model for utilities is gone, market let’s talk about how to build the future • Main challenges remain: Generation: Ongoing margin pressure as over-capacity is only Technological, social and most of all regulatory influences changed the 1 Current Situation utilities industry over the last 10 years for good, resulting in significant slowly reduced challenges in terms of market valuation, profits and returns for utilities Distribution: Imbalance of consumption and generation Key issues exist in three areas: In generation, over-capacity eliminates remains a challenge, increasing spreads; in distribution, increasing geographical disparity exists Key Issues 2 between generation and demand; in consumption, new segments with number of dispatching incidents diverse behaviors and needs arise besides the “traditional” consumers Consumption: Customers have the option to choose preferred To respond to these challenges, utilities need to fix current business, invest in intelligent and commercially optimized demand/supply technology for power generation Implications 3 balancing solutions, become more customer centric and reposition for new business models • Consequences are being realized (e.g. through portfolio © 2015 Deloitte Consulting GmbH adjustments), the industry seems to have bottomed out Monitor Deloitte 2018 3 Recap: Power Market Study 2025 (2/2) The good old days are gone for good – a mere evolution is not sufficient, a real transformation is required Major trends and their development Observations 2015 projection Adjusted projection New topics • General confirmation of Power High Market Study 2025, however, some “surprises” have occurred: Energy-as- Very effective auction model a-Service Regulatory- driven for renewables decarbonization Portfolio adjustment/ Maturity of Extent of portfolio adjustments market consolidation renewables Micro- across all major utilities grids1 Speed of storage technologies Blockchain to become relevant (Large-scale) IoT / convergence storage / P2G • Regulatory-driven decarbonization (introduction of E-Mobility CO2 taxation and potential lignite phase-out) no longer a vision of the Impact for utilities Impact future • Further consolidation in large- scale traditional generation expected Low Long-term Short-term Time of occurrence Monitor Deloitte 2018 1 Microgrids include Peer-to-Peer-Trading Platforms and Energy Communities 4 Challenges have not diminished – new market realities have appeared to which utilities have to adjust. Monitor Deloitte 2018 5 Overview The three major value chain segments are still a valid basis for industry analysis Generation Distribution Consumption • Further regulatory push towards • Inexpensive renewable energies and • Traditional commodity business not decarbonization (Paris Agreement), maturing storage solutions push profitable (for B2B no margin over-capacities will decrease (nuclear, importance of micro-grids recovery, for B2C potentially slight lignite phase-out) increase through automation • High-voltage transmission still expected) • Recovering wholesale market essential to balance unequal supply prices (50-60 EUR/MWh); and demand • Shifting customer needs and renaissance of natural gas (“stranded industry convergence require • Convergence of infrastructures assets”) to provide system services (power and gas, telecommunication, transformation and cost-effectiveness data, mobility) Consolidation in large-scale Relevance of Micro-grids, De-commoditization, generation, market forces extension of (critical) convergence and service cost relevant again infrastructure ecosystem reduction Monitor Deloitte 2018 6 Generation | Price development Wholesale prices are improving – relieving the profit situation for utilities Price development Considerations German wholesale power price (spot) Expected utilities’ profitability • Germany will potentially see upturn (EUR/MWh) growth 2017-2020 (CAGR in %) in wholesale power prices (nuclear 50-60 60 52 DE EU 3.6% phase-out by 2022 + potential 46 43 38 coal/lignite) 33 31 33 40 28 1.9% Nuclear phase-out: remaining 1.6% nine nuclear plants shut down by 20 0.8% EUR/MWh 2022 latest 0 Limited future for coal: §13g 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172030e Revenue EBITDA EnWG already leads to shut-down of approx. 10% of coal plants by 2019 Number of hours with negative wholesale power prices and hours with prices >100 EUR/MWh • Price fluctuations on spot market more pronounced 146 150 126 2017: negative prices during 146 97 100 88 hours (most ever recorded); many 56 64 64 hours with prices >100 EUR/MWh 50 volatility on intraday market 15 17 Hours Hours p.a. 12 8 9 high as well; shows increasing 0 need for flexibility due to rising PV 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 & wind capacity Hours with negative spot prices Hours with spot prices > 100 EUR/MWh Monitor Deloitte 2018 Source: EPEX; Credit Suisse: “European Utilities – 2018 Outlook” (2017); Federal Network Agency (BNetzA); Agora Energiewende: “Jahresauswertung 2017”; Monitor 7 Deloitte analysis Generation | Consolidation in fossil generation However, large-scale conventional generation will be subject to further consolidation, while their relevance for system stability remains Developments in fossil generation Considerations • Traditional vertically integrated utilities business model is increasingly challenged • Merger wave in conventional generation • Capital-intensive business, large players will set the pace • Need for new (gas) power plants Gross electricity generation, generation mix (%) for security of supply – at least 2022 after finalization of nuclear phase- 23% 22% 18% out; conventional generation will become profitable again as wholesale 17% 17% 20% power prices rise Gap (10%) – 12% 12% Options 10% • Remaining gap in generation mix 13% 20% 1. Wind on-shore 13% will have to be filled by additional 10% 6% 2. Imports 2% 3% wind power generation in order to 6% 9% 11% 3. Gas new-built 3% 3% 3% 4. Efficiency meet carbon reduction targets 7% 8% 8% 7% 3% 4% 2016 2020 2030 Lignite Natural gas Wind on Solar Biomass Hard coal Nuclear Wind off Hydro Other Monitor Deloitte 2018 Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi); Monitor Deloitte analysis 8 Generation | Development of “dark doldrums” (Dunkelflaute) The rising variability of residual load – due to fluctuating renewables – requires balancing mechanisms that complements conventional generation Impacts of high renewable energy share Considerations Number of situations p.a. during which average wind and solar • Recent studies indicate that generation is < 10% of nominal capacity for period of 48 hours situations with prolonged yield losses of fluctuating renewables are 23 Germany Europe rare, viewed over time – but when occurring, large spreads need to Often be covered 13 • So far, dark doldrums (times during Rarely 2 which solar or wind power generation 0.2 is very low) covered by Wind on- Wind on-/ Wind on-/ Wind conventional generation and shore off-shore off & Solar & Solar electricity imports • Considering a lignite phase-out, Wind and solar generation at peak load, peak load (GW) cross-border capacities might not be sufficient to ensure security of 16% 21% 19% 2% 11% 2% 24% supply during “cold dark doldrums” 100 (coincidence of low wind and solar generation and high electricity 50 Residual load demand during winter months) GW to be covered • Need for balancing, e.g. via 0 Winter period capacity mechanisms or price peaks 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to incentivize use of flexible gas Wind, PV at peak load Peak load power plants Monitor Deloitte 2018 Source: Energy Brainpool (2017); Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) (2018); RWE (2017); Monitor Deloitte analysis 9 Generation | Renewables The growth of renewables is increasingly backed by its superior cost position that will make merchant marketing the norm in the mid-term Profitability of renewables Considerations Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), • Switch to tender process for average auction prices, renewables with Renewable Energy wholesale electricity price (EUR/MWh) Act (“EEG”) amendment 2017 160 • Constant decrease in auction 140 prices, also reflecting decline in renewable costs (LCOE) 120 • Expected wholesale market price 100 development implies that it might 80 become
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