The Foreign Service Journal, April 2007

LET’S FIX CONTACT REPORTING DEFENDING FREE TRADE TEE OFF!

$3.50 / APRIL 2007 OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS

THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY Russia Enters the 21st Century

CONTENTS April 2007 Volume 84, No. 4

F OCUS ON R USSIA F EATURE

SAVING GLOBALIZATION FROM ITSELF / 49 There are concrete ways to counter the fears of change and increasing inequality that are fueling the current backlash against trade liberalization. By Eric Trachtenberg

C OLUMNS D EPARTMENTS

PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 LETTERS / 6 On Speaking Truth to Power CYBERNOTES / 10 19 / UNDERSTANDING VLADIMIR PUTIN By J. Anthony Holmes MARKETPLACE / 12 While he shares the Kremlin’s traditional preference SPEAKING OUT / 14 FASTRAX / 13 for centralizing power, Putin’s approach differs from Time to Overhaul Contact AFSA NEWS / 59 that of his predecessors. Reporting Requirements BOOKS / 71 By Dale Herspring By David J. Firestein IN MEMORY / 74 INDEX TO 25 / PREPARING FOR THE POST-PUTIN ERA REFLECTIONS / 88 Where is Russia headed? Here is a look at the The Best and Worst ADVERTISERS / 86 fundamental challenges before the country and the Golf Courses Russian elite’s capacity to cope with them. By Bob Gribbin By Lilia Shevtsova

32 / AN IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY?: RESOURCES, SPACE AND PEOPLE Russia’s future depends on how it manages its resources, its space, and its people. By Clifford G. Gaddy

39 / RUSSIA CONFRONTS RADICAL ISLAM Coming to terms with its Muslim minority is likely to become a larger and more difficult problem for the Kremlin in the future. By Dmitry Gorenburg

THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS OREIGN ERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published J O U R N A L F S monthly with a combined July/August issue by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit Editorial Board organization. Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent Editor STEVEN ALAN HONLEY TED WILKINSON, the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by Senior Editor CHAIRMAN e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA Members - $13 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, SUSAN B. MAITRA add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mail- Associate Editor KENT C. BROKENSHIRE ing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. SHAWN DORMAN STEPHEN W. B UCK Ad & Circulation Manager 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited ED MILTENBERGER ANTHONY S. CHAN manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein Business Manager JOSH GLAZEROFF does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. ANDREW KIDD WILLIAM W. J ORDAN E-MAIL: [email protected]. WEB: www.afsa.org. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service Art Director LAURIE KASSMAN Association, 2007. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., CARYN SUKO SMITH KAY WEBB MAYFIELD Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Printed on 50-percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. Editorial Intern JOHN K. NALAND E. MARGARET MACFARLAND JOYCE NAMDE CHRISTOPHER L. TEAL Cover and inside illustrations by Ben Fishman; photos courtesy of istockphoto.com

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PRESIDENT’S VIEWS On Speaking Truth to Power BY J. ANTHONY HOLMES

I was shocked. Stung, really. formidable (and sometimes often determines the individual Last November, when we con- more irritating) “bump in the assignments that follow. But it does ducted our comprehensive road,” to quote one senior happen that we have interests on both electronic survey of the views official, than it has been since sides of an issue; e.g., filling positions and priorities of the 8,500 the Vietnam War era. We’ve at unaccompanied posts. So we both active-duty AFSA members been told on a number of have to protect our members and see employed by the State Depart- occasions that ill-advised ini- that the system generates enough vol- ment, fully 65 percent of the tiatives have been deterred unteers to preclude the department 3,400 who responded (a whopping 41 inside the department because “AFSA from fulfilling its promise to use percent of the total Foreign Service will never agree to that.” directed assignments if it doesn’t. work force) said they believed AFSA It is also my impression that, if one The limitations on federal unions should be “even more vocal and looks at how AFSA engages the media mean that speaking out — in essence assertive” in future dealings with State on professional issues — whether it is bringing the weight of “public opin- management and the administration interviews with the national press or ion” in the FS to bear on manage- to advance their interests. NPR, letters to the editor of major ment’s perception of an issue — is one Only 33 percent said they thought newspapers, columns written for the of the strongest tools we have. This is we’ve had our tone and aggressiveness Journal, or the scope of AFSA’s especially true given AFSA’s long his- level about right, while a miniscule 2 engagement on the significant issues tory and the expertise and credibility percent thought we should be less affecting foreign affairs and the that stem from the fact that our offi- vocal and assertive. It was some solace Foreign Service — we have spoken cers and board come from, and return that over 80 percent of the survey’s up forthrightly, defending the FS as to, the active Service. We often know respondents were satisfied with our necessary (and frequently when State the issues as well as management, overall efforts on their behalf, though Department leaders have chosen not have equally credible and often broad- the results made it clear that they to). We have not shirked from point- er sources of information, and are bet- wanted a much stronger voice and ing out when, on issues with person- ter able to see the whole picture and firmer action in what they clearly view nel or resource implications that make foresee “unanticipated consequences” as a very difficult period for the them relevant to AFSA, the gap of specific proposals. Foreign Service. If you didn’t notice between State’s rhetoric and the reali- One current example of our ap- it, check out the article on the survey ty of the situation grows too large. proach is our response to the idea of results in the “AFSA News” section of It is important to keep in mind, of creating a mid-level entry program. the Journal ’s January edition, begin- course, that as a government employ- While such a mechanism offers the ning on page 57. ees’ union, our array of tools is limited possibility to quickly add needed skills, The reason our membership’s and we must be judicious in using address affirmative-action needs and strong desire for an even more aggres- those we have. Strikes are outlawed fill other gaps, it would also bring a sive AFSA posture shocked me was and some issues, such as individual host of significant negative factors, that it is my impression, and clearly assignments, are not negotiable. We based on a number of similar pro- the perception of State management do have the right to negotiate rules grams that were major failures in the in HR and elsewhere, that AFSA has relating to the overall process, as well past. AFSA is adamantly opposed to recently become a considerably more as “appropriate arrangements” when mid-level hiring into the generalist our members are adversely affected. corps, and we have ensured, publicly J. Anthony Holmes is the president of the And we take this entree very seriously and privately, that the key officials in American Foreign Service Association. indeed, as the larger system itself the department understand that.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 5 LETTERS

Digital State Web site at http://intelink.gov/com Neocons and Butterflies We were gratified to see in the munities/state/transformations. In his February article, “A Sound January issue several references to We also recently sponsored a glob- Strategy,” Joshua Muravchik has per- activities in which the Bureau of al call for ideas on how to use IT for formed a great service for readers of Information Resource Management’s diplomatic work, and received a the Foreign Service Journal. He has Office of eDiplomacy is involved, and number of promising suggestions. shown us how the neoconservatives, we would like to offer some addition- One idea from Embassy Lima that unfamiliar with the realities of many al background on each. The Cyber- we intend to support is the establish- countries around the world, have led notes column called attention to use ment of an “800” dial-in number for the Bush administration to make so of Wiki technology for Intellipedia, an embassies to use for public diploma- many mistakes in foreign affairs. online collaborative space for the cy purposes. On another note, Francis X. intelligence community. Here at Finally, we read with interest Cunningham’s fondness for Puccini’s State, our office launched a similar “Location, Location, Location …” by opera “Madame Butterfly” (Letters, product called Diplopedia (http:// our former colleague, Science Fel- February) is shared by many Ameri- diplopedia.state.gov) last September, low Carol Christian. Carol was a cans; it is the most-performed opera following approval for wiki and blog champion for Geographic Informa- in the United States. But Cunning- software on OpenNet. tion Systems applications and con- ham is wrong to see an analogy Anyone with OpenNet access can ducted the research for her article between Puccini’s U.S. Consul Sharp- contribute to Diplopedia and is invit- while here. We agree that the abili- less and the Foreign Service today. ed to draw on his or her experience, ty to layer and present various types Puccini’s opera, first performed in knowledge and expertise by con- of information in map format has 1904, is based on a novel, Madame tributing articles or comments, or by tremendous potential for reporting Chrysanthemum, written by Pierre editing materials submitted by others. and analysis, security, disaster re- Loti in 1887, which takes place in Eventually, eDiplomacy would like sponse and other areas of importance Nagasaki. The U.S. consul in Naga- Diplopedia to become a reference for State’s activities. saki in the 1890s was William H. and starting point for all topics of While we recognize the resource Abercrombie, a physician whose sole interest to the State Department. constraints that have prevented a qualification for the job was that he We are also using simple blogging wider use of GIS software at State, we had good connections with the software as the basis for our highly helped a coalition of offices and bur- Republican administration in Wash- successful Communities@State pro- eaus, headed up by Overseas Building ington. (So what else is new?) A U.S. gram, with almost 40 Communities of Operations, win approval for use of consulate had been opened in Practice already established or in Google Earth Pro, a commercial pro- Nagasaki in 1859, and while I do not process. duct, on OpenNet computers through- know its staffing, it is very unlikely that Cybernotes also called attention to out the department. there was a political or economic the growing role of cell phones in the As an office charged with encour- counselor there. economic, political and social affairs aging innovative uses of IT at State, As for the two-timing Pinkerton, I of most developing countries. We eDiplomacy continues to do its bit to cannot say whether there are any have highlighted the idea of using digitize diplomacy. analogies with the Foreign Service “cellcasting” to leverage cell-phone Thomas C. Niblock today. technology for public diplomacy pur- Director, Office of Yale Richmond poses. For more details, see “mobile eDiplomacy FSO, retired computing” on our Transformations Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C.

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Student Loans and Retention that amount of debt. ple who have not come from much I write to protest the recent State It may be true that cutting the can achieve anything they dream. Department decision to limit the SLRP will drive us to more dangerous I look up to people like George number of people who can apply for posts, but what about the people who Kennan. Maybe he never felt like he the Student Loan Repayment Pro- specifically sought out 15-percent dif- fit in with the establishment because gram. Previously officers serving in ferential posts? Where does this fit of his blue-collar, Milwaukee back- 15-percent differential posts were eli- with retaining top talent? Why both- ground, but one would not guess this gible, but now only those at posts with er seeking out 20-percent differential from his influential words and deeds. differentials of 20 percent or higher posts for our second tours if the bar The State Department should do all it can benefit from the SLRP. can so easily be raised again? can to retain the young talent that it This change hurts me personally. Another challenge for retention has already attracted by continuing to When I was bidding on my first post, that affects many of us is our loyal and offer the SLRP to as many people as I limited my choices to only those highly educated spouses. My wife is a possible. posts that had a differential of 15 per- medical professional who might Rob Doyle cent or more. I currently serve in never realize her full potential as an FSO Mexico City, which has a 15-percent occupational therapist if we continue Embassy Mexico City differential. I know other people who to travel the world with the Foreign used the same bidding strategy. Service, due to language differences, Hold the Applause Knowing that up to $4,000 could be work agreements and licenses to Your report on Doug Kent’s legal knocked off your student loan debt practice. There were countless such victory (“CG on Duty,” October was a huge incentive to avoid lower- stories in my A-100 class; just decid- 2006) concluded that “no one should differential posts. ing to join the Foreign Service is a have to experience what Doug Kent More importantly, however, I sacrifice that cannot be a win-win for has gone through.” I wonder if that think that this change hurts the State many spouses. would include the young Russian vic- Department as an institution, espe- In the face of such sacrifice, the tim of Mr. Kent’s accident who is now cially in terms of retaining officers. I decision to limit the SLRP will only spending the rest of his life in a read with some interest that the keep people from staying with the wheelchair? As an FSO, I applaud director general would be making Foreign Service. It seems as though this important legal victory for the changes to the Foreign Service exam the Service wants to open the doors Foreign Service and thank AFSA for to make it more accessible to interest- widely and quickly for those qualified its strong support, but I feel that your ed parties, as well as to shorten the to join, then do little to retain these parting shot on the story lacked sensi- hiring process for those who pass. very able and educated people. tivity. This would allow the department to The Foreign Service started as a Before joining the Foreign Service, compete with top private companies career for wealthy children of the I spent three years in Vladivostok. for talent. But what is the point of Eastern establishment. While few The roads there are treacherous and fighting for talent if we make changes will deny the great contributions of impossibly dark at night. Moreover, to the SLRP that then hurt retention? FSOs like Hiram Bingham IV, W. the locals drive in a reckless manner. I like to think my story is somewhat Averell Harriman, Dean Acheson and During my entire stay in the Russian typical for those who have recently Charles Bohlen, I think that everyone Far East, I always let a trusted local entered the Foreign Service. I was would agree that the Foreign Service driver do my driving. Mr. Kent could raised in a single-parent, blue-collar has become a better and more have done the same. Sure, his deci- household in the Midwest, and was dynamic career now that it is more sion to drive himself may have been then fortunate enough to get into a open to women, people of color and about “saving money for the govern- very good — and expensive — private people from lower socio-economic ment” as you reported but, nonethe- college, where the annual tuition was backgrounds. In what other foreign less, it showed a total lack of judg- more than my mother’s salary. I ministry can you find female ambas- ment. Let’s not forget that Mr. Kent’s joined State with nearly $20,000 of sadors serving in the Middle East, or decision to get behind the wheel student loan debt. Many of my citizens of Indian descent doing con- resulted in dire consequences for the friends who entered the Foreign sular work in Pakistan? Our example Russian involved. Service after two years of graduate shows the entire world that different So, while we celebrate the legal school training easily had five times is not necessarily bad, that even peo- decision, it’s hard to get too sympa-

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thetic about Mr. Kent’s ordeal. I think Mr. Kent and the rest of us would prefer a few years of legal headaches to a life of never being able to walk again. Some perspective, please. John Fleming FSO Embassy Tokyo

Iran: What About Containment? French President Jacques Chirac recently said that the world could better live with an Iranian atom bomb than go to war to prevent its development. He quickly retracted his state- ment as much of the world went wild with criticism, and his evaluation of the situation has virtually vanished from consideration. But the French are noted for their perceptive political vision. Speaking as a retired FSO with experience as a counselor of embassy in the Arab world and as deputy director of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, I think Chirac’s assessment is worthy of serious reflection despite the controversy it has aroused. His view is in close alignment with a recent article by Joe Klein on how to deal with Iran and its leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which was the most focused and thoughtful prescription I’ve yet read. When George Kennan wrote his famous paper on containment as the best way to deal with Soviet expan- sionism, the USSR had achieved virtual parity with the U.S. in both arma- ments and delivery systems. Who would have thought that 50 years later we’d be sitting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Group of Eight meetings? Even if Iran and North Korea succeed in producing half a dozen primitive atomic bombs, how can we be more concerned about the possibility of one or more of them falling in the hands of terrorists than having half our country annihilated by

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an onslaught of Soviet rockets? Mutually Assured Destruction worked with half a dozen different Soviet leaders. Why shouldn’t it work with smaller carbuncles on the international scene? Neither Kim Jong Il nor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in- sane. And an announced commitment on our part to obliterate both countries simultaneously if either allows even one of its weapons to be used against the United States should promote serious cooperation between these two countries to monitor each other’s actions, deter further weapons development or their spread to terrorist organizations. It would also give leaders of all nations pause for thought about the search for pres- tige as members of the nuclear club. Both Kennan and Klein recom- mended patience and talks, hopefully leading to acceptable solutions. Chirac seems to be saying much the same thing. Let’s give the Kennan/ Klein/Chirac prescription a chance. Perhaps then in 50 years we can sit down with successor leadership in Iran and North Korea as partners in one or another international organization. David Brighton Timmins FSO, retired Salt Lake City, Utah

Send your letters to: [email protected]. Note that all letters are subject to editing for style, format and length.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 9 CYBERNOTES

Russia’s WTO Bid: immediate ramifications. Georgia resolve the frozen conflicts, and also A Bumpy Road joined the World Trade Organization requested the assistance of the U.N. “President Vladimir Putin must on June 14, 2000; Moldova joined one and the Organization for Security and understand that his country cannot year later. Both countries are among Cooperation in Europe. Bezhuashvili enjoy partnership with the West ... as the 150 WTO members who will says that, while determined to pre- long as his policies in the European decide on Russia’s accession to the serve its sovereignty, Georgia is “inter- neighborhood, and at home, look less organization. Moscow has placed ested in maximum productive cooper- like those of a modern European embargoes on both countries, most ation with Russia” (www.interfax. statesman than of a czar.” So declared noticeably on Georgian wine, a major com/17/232904/Interview.aspx). Ana Palacio, former foreign minister of export. Georgia initially supported The bilateral trade agreement Spain, and Daniel Twining, a consul- Russia’s WTO bid in a 2004 bilateral Russia concluded with the U.S. in tant for the German Marshall Fund of trade agreement, but will withdraw its November 2006 marks one of the the United States, in a 2006 Washing- support if the terms of the agreement final steps in its path to WTO mem- ton Post op-ed that called attention to are flouted (www.rferl.org/feat bership. On Feb. 21 Rep. Tom Lan- “Russia’s Shadow Empire.” ures/features_Article.aspx?m=11 tos, D-Calif., chairman of the House Palacio and Twining were referring &y=2006&id=5DBEE932-A1C Foreign Affairs Committee, announ- to the so-called frozen conflicts in 2-4904-A210-C833DFE5379C). ced during a visit to Moscow that he southeastern Europe and the south This stage of the WTO process intends to push for lifting the Jackson- Caucasus, where Russia exerts unoffi- involves general talks with members, Vanik Amendment (www.kommer cial power by supporting secessionist to iron out bilateral agreements, and sant.com/p-10163/Jackson-Van movements in neighboring states. In Moscow hopes to have resolved its ik_end/). ). Regarded by some as a Georgia and Moldova, Russia has offi- issues with Georgia and Moldova by Cold War relic, the 1974 amendment cially endorsed the breakaway fac- July 2007 (www.mosnews.com/ limits trade with countries with poor tions by granting their members citi- money/2006/11/19/russiauswto. track records on human rights, specif- zenship, passports and the right to shtml). Georgia, too, has professed a ically with regard to emigration. vote in Russian elections in an effort desire for constructive dialogue. Lifting the ban would be a significant to undermine the countries’ pro- Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili step in forming normal trade relations Western governments. has urged the U.S. and the European with Russia. The resulting tensions have larger Union to work together to help Commentators note, however, that Moscow’s new push to establish Russia as “an independent ‘pole’ in a 50 Years Ago... multipolar world,” as Carnegie En- It is well to realize that international problems do not dowment scholar Andre Kuchins puts have ready-made solutions like quiz programs or cross- it, may get in the way (www.carneg word puzzles or mathematical riddles. I cannot help ieendowment.org/publications/ feeling that mass media communications tend to over- index.cfm?fa=view&id=18872&p simplify such questions and treat them in terms of stereotypes and rog=zru). Kuchins argues that a con- symbols. gressional vote in 2007 on whether to grant Russia permanent normal trade — From a speech by Indian Ambassador G.H. Mehta, “The Way relations status — which could deter- Diplomacy Works,” before the Fletcher School of Law and mine Russia’s WTO suitability — will Diplomacy, FSJ, April 1957. be contentious, with the Kremlin’s ties to Iran one of the issues.

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Moscow’s willingness to consider from the Office of the Director of rorism information,” the plan states. an Iranian proposal to set up a coop- National Intelligence (www.ise. “To the contrary, and as stated, tech- erative gas producers’ group a la gov/). nology will play the role of facilitating, OPEC, for example, could stir legisla- According to the implementation improving and expanding information tors’ ire — in spite of Putin’s assur- plan McNamara presented to Con- sharing in response to the counterter- ance that it could never be a cartel gress last November, the ISE aims to rorism needs of ISE participants.” and the Economic Development and facilitate, coordinate and expedite Besides bringing appropriate tech- Trade Ministry’s prompt denunciation access to protected terrorism informa- nology to bear, ISE is clearing the of the idea (http://en.rian.ru/rus tion across the intelligence, law en- obstacles to sharing information. One sia/20070201/60048917.html). forcement, defense, homeland securi- such obstacle is the proliferation of For all these reasons, Russia’s ty and foreign affairs communities. sensitive-but-unclassified documents WTO accession is not yet a given. It “The ISE will not result in the con- with a bewildering array of markers remains to be seen how the Kremlin struction of one governmentwide — 108 have been identified by the will reconcile the quest for a unique computer system containing all ter- ISE team so far — that determine the foreign policy stance with the process of normalizing bilateral trade regimes and the drafting of membership terms Site of the Month: Frontline Diplomacy to win a two-thirds majority vote in What was it like to be present when Ronald Reagan said to Mikhail the WTO General Council (www. Gorbachev, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”? What was running through wto.org/English/thewto_e/whatis the minds of Foreign Service officers at the same wall years earlier, during John _e/tif_e/org3_e.htm). F. Kennedy’s “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech? — E. Margaret MacFarland, Thanks to a new online initiative by the Library of Congress, we now have Editorial Intern some idea. On Feb. 21, Frontline Diplomacy made its debut (http://memory. loc.gov/ammem/collections/diplomacy/index.html). Part of the library’s Information-Sharing Program American Memory project, the Web site features the foreign affairs oral histo- Takes On SBU ry collection of the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training. It contains Recommendations for standardiz- an extensive compilation of primary, oral accounts of 20th-century diplomacy, ing procedures for handling so-called and is expected to grow to include additional interviews chronicling the unfold- sensitive-but-unclassified information ing events of the 21st century, as well. are due to be delivered to the White The American Memory project is the centerpiece of the Library’s National House soon as part of the effort to Digital Library Program, launched in 1994 with bipartisan congressional sup- establish smooth channels of commu- port and private funding. The project digitalized various oral histories, music nication among federal, state and and images that make up America’s collective consciousness. local agencies for sharing counterter- Frontline Diplomacy focuses mainly on the contributions of Foreign Service rorism intelligence. officers after World War II, and offers the personal experiences of Lawrence A product of the investigation into Eagleburger, Averell Harriman, Jeane Kirkpatrick, Winston Lord and Dean the lapses that facilitated the terrorist Rusk, among many others. There are first-hand stories of terrorist attacks attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Infor- (Beirut, 1983, and Nairobi, 1998), Henry Kissinger’s secret 1971 trip to Beijing mation-Sharing Environment program and the Berlin airlift of 1948. was mandated in the Intelligence As of late February, the site included the transcripts of 1,301 oral history Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act interviews donated by ADST. of 2004. The program is led by career — E. Margaret MacFarland, Editorial Intern Ambassador Thomas E. McNamara

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 11 C YBERNOTES

think the need for diplomacy is greater than it ever has been. We need more reporting; we need the best reporting. We need the Ibest representation and explanation of our policies overseas, and we need the most effective problem-solving officers stationed out there.

— Ambassador John Negroponte, at his swearing-in as the new Deputy Secretary of State on Feb. 13, www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2007/feb/80498.htm

particular way each document is han- TechnoFile: dled, distributed and stored. The Beyond Shoe Bugs result, McNamara told the Washing- In the brave, new post-9/11 world, ton Post on Jan. 24, is “chaos.” security is a daily concern and techni- Post writer Elizabeth Williamson cal literacy a crucial asset for diplo- cites reports by the National Govern- mats. For a window into the plans ors Association and the Government and activities of the folks in the Accountability Office that found that Bureau of Diplomatic Security who the SBU mess undermines the effec- walk that walk daily, if you have access tiveness of terrorism alerts from to State’s intranet, take a look at the Washington. In one incident cited, a Office of Security Technology’s elec- local police official received an SBU tronic newsletter, TechnoFile at http:// memo from Washington, wrongly st.ds.state.gov/ST/frontoffice.ht thought it was classified, and spent m#TechnoFile. days looking for a secure phone line to The current issue of the quarterly inquire about it. publication highlights a story on the McNamara wants to reduce the new Regional Security Technician pro- number of SBU markers to 12 or less, gram under which 24 Foreign Service and develop one set of rules. Also National employees maintain and under way is a push to promote a cul- repair “the growing mountain of tech- ture of information-sharing among all nical security equipment located out- levels of government and across agen- side of controlled access areas over- cies. seas.” Elsewhere, according to ISE’s In “Cold War to Computer Coun- November plan, progress has been termeasures,” Lonnie Price, the chief made on establishing a strong legal of ST’s Countermeasures Program, and policy foundation for information discusses plans to open the Counter- sharing. The National Counterter- measures Program to close collabora- rorism Center is emerging as a central tion with DS’s Office of Computer federal institution to facilitate the Security. “Even as recently as the ISE, and states and localities have 1990s, we were worried about trans- invested in fusion centers to act as col- mitters in electric typewriters,” says lection points for information-sharing Price. “But today, the threat has beat the regional level. come highly technical and sophisticat- — Susan Maitra, Senior Editor ed, and it’s always evolving. This pre-

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sents a host of new challenges for us.” are monitoring the registration and TechnoFile is produced by and for storage of the insurgents’ weapons. ST personnel, stateside and abroad, The Maoist commitment to partic- and contains news, articles on person- ipate in the process is a historic devel- al and professional accomplishments opment, but some observers worry and project summaries, as well as that political leaders will fail to cast technical articles. the net broadly enough. “So far, the — Susan Maitra, Senior Editor concentration has been on building elite consensus at the expense of The “New Nepal”: intense political debate and extensive Democracy-Building in Action public consultation,” the International The process of democracy- Crisis Group, an NGO working on building, with all its challenges and five continents to prevent and resolve messiness, is on display in Nepal, the deadly conflict, states in its Feb. 26 tiny but strategic nation that changed report (www.crisisgroup.org/hom from an absolute to constitutional e/index.cfm?id=4673&l=1). The monarchy in 1990. It has since suf- group warns that unless Nepali politi- fered from frequent and confronta- cal leaders make the process more tional government changes, a decade- inclusive they risk a return to violent long Maoist insurgency that claimed conflict, as foreshadowed in the more than 13,000 lives, the suspension recent unrest among residents of the of parliament and a one-year period of Tarai plains. “emergency rule” by King Gyanendra. “Nepal’s constitution-making pro- The way was paved for ending the cess has two tough targets to meet,” insurgency and restoring the political says Rhoderick Chalmers, deputy process in April 2006 when the seven director of the Crisis Group’s South main political parties and the Maoist Asia Project. “It must conclusively rebels, who control most of rural end the conflict and also shape more Nepal, joined to demand an end to representative and responsive state Gyanendra’s dictatorial rule. Within structures. Balancing these concerns a month the king was forced to hand is far from straightforward, but power back to the parliament, and broader public participation can only the parties and Maoists proceeded to help.” negotiate plans for new elections to a For news and updates on Nepal, constituent assembly, to be held in see BBC Online at (http://news.bbc. June, that will write a new constitu- co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6435901. tion. They also hammered out stm). The Center for Strategic and agreements on power sharing in the International Studies’ South Asia Mon- interim government and weapons itor provides regular analysis (www. decommissioning. By February, an csis.org/media/csis/pubs/sam95. interim legislature had been formed pdf), and the Carnegie Endowment and an interim constitution promul- for International Peace offers views gated. from Nepal in its monthly South Asian Now attention is focused on the Perspectives webzine (www.carnegie next steps, constituent assembly elec- endowment.org/newsletters/SAP tions and drafting of the new constitu- /sap_february07.htm#nepal). tion. To help on the ground, a one- For background, the Library of year U.N. mission in Nepal is now on Congress country study on Nepal is the scene (www.un.org.np/unmin/ informative (http://lcweb2.loc.gov/ srsg.php). U.N. election advisers frd/cs/nptoc.html). have been there for some time, and — Susan Maitra, Senior Editor

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 13 SPEAKING OUT Time to Overhaul Contact Reporting Requirements

BY DAVID J. FIRESTEIN

he State Department’s current today’s threats, but yesterday’s. contact reporting require- A rule set that The CRR codified in 3 FAM 4100, Tments, as set forth in the screams for clarity Appendix B, were published on June Foreign Affairs Manual, confound 20, 1988 — nearly two decades ago. American personnel; aid hostile intel- and precision is They utterly fail to take into account ligence services, which exploit ambi- instead a study in the epic changes and events that have guities in the CRR to entrap and pres- “strategic ambiguity.” occurred in the world since then: the sure our diplomats; and undermine end of the Cold War, the emergence the department’s ability to safeguard of new adversaries, the 9/11 attacks, classified and sensitive information. the global war on terror and — not The pertinent sections of the FAM least — the rise of the Internet, which contain more enigmas and puzzles relationships and cohabitation; and has greatly complicated traditional than The Da Vinci Code. A rule set those covered in 12 FAM 262, which notions of “relationship” and “con- that screams for clarity and precision is govern contacts of counterintelli- tact.” instead a study in “strategic ambigui- gence concern. Each set of CRR has State seemed to recognize the ty.” its own particular mission/purpose, gravity of this problem when, on April AFSA State Vice President Steve reporting criteria, reporting channel 15, 1995, it issued unclassified cable Kashkett has written in these pages and bureau of jurisdiction (Human 95 State 93112, titled “Relation- (AFSA News, November 2006) that Resources and Diplomatic Security, ships and Contact Reporting.” The “these archaic and ... contradictory respectively). first line stated: “The FAM on subject regulations,” which have sometimes Having the CRR in two places in policy has been revised and will short- been enforced in “capricious and arbi- the FAM and under the aegis of two ly be transmitted to all posts.” Though trary ways,” have tripped up “hun- bureaus creates dangerous blind spots the changes to 12 FAM enumerated in dreds of loyal Foreign Service mem- and jurisdictional confusion. (For this cable took effect immediately (as bers,” resulting in “lasting damage to example, in actuality, HR doesn’t promised in the cable), the changes to otherwise productive and distin- enforce the 3 FAM CRR; DS does.) 3 FAM never did, for reasons that are guished careers.” If the issue of the Moreover, because reporting under unclear to this day. department’s CRR — which goes one section of the FAM does not con- Had they taken effect (as many directly to the heart of State’s ability to stitute reporting under the other (per FSOs thought they did), the changes protect its personnel from real harm 12 FAM), the current CRR necessi- would have: 1) replaced “communist- and safeguard classified information tate, in some cases, the filing of two governed/allied” with “critical threat” — does not merit the immediate reports for the same contact, one pur- as the affiliation of concern, thus end- attention and action of management, it suant to 3 FAM and one pursuant to ing the Cold War-era communist- is difficult to imagine one that does. 12 FAM. (Yet, oddly, both reports focused non-fraternization policy; and Below, I enumerate the most egre- must use the same 12 FAM form, 2) mandated the immediate reporting gious problems and some possible which is the only one that exists!) of only such relationships with nation- solutions. Solution: Unify all contact report- als of critical-threat countries that There exist two self-standing ing requirements under 12 FAM; place involved “bonds of affection, influence and essentially distinct sets of them under DS jurisdiction. or obligation” (as opposed to “any rela- CRR: those outlined in 3 FAM 4100, The 3 FAM CRR are obscenely tionship” with communist nationals). Appendix B, which govern intimate out of date; they address not Although these changes were rep-

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resented in 1995 as faits accompli, requirements that simply do not or her clearance merely for reporting a they never entered into force. And exist in the FAM. This profoundly communist national contact. What’s thus, for example, the department’s disturbing tendency is all the more more, DS has declared in writing (in non-fraternization policy, which we all troubling when one considers the fact an unclassified e-mail message dated thought ended in 1995 (and which that in investigations of alleged CRR June 29, 2006) that it will not divulge was, in fact, stricken from 12 FAM violations, the Bureau of Diplomatic the results of the vetting on reported that year, courtesy of 95 State 93112), Security plays the roles of investigator, contacts to employees who don’t have is still on the books and fully enforce- finder-of-“fact,” prosecutor, judge, clearances, on the grounds that doing able. As 3 FAM 629.2-4 (1) states, “It jury and first court of appeals. so might “compromise sources and is the policy of [the State Depart- For example, an RSO at a major methods.” So, by reporting a commu- ment] that reportable relationships… post in a communist country issued an nist national contact, an officer auto- [with] national[s] of communist-gov- official administrative announcement matically loses his or her clearance (at erned/allied countries ... will preclude which, in part, read: “You should least in theory), thereby forfeiting his continued security clearance for report any contact with a non-U.S. cit- right to the results of DS’s vetting of access up to and including top-secret izen in which you have continuing the contact — and thoroughly obviat- information, and assignment to sensi- social contact” — a sweeping and ing the point of reporting the contact tive duties/posts which relate to the intrusive directive that goes far in the first place. nationality of the intended spouse, beyond established policy and has no Furthermore, to the extent it is cohabitant or partner in a relation- basis whatsoever in either the 3 FAM implemented, this policy renders ship,” pending “full investigation.” or 12 FAM. In another instance, DS meaningless another current 3 FAM Though this policy is inconsistently actually changed a regulation to make provision that stipulates that the enforced, it nonetheless begs a ques- it conform to an allegation in a DS reporting of a relationship will trigger tion: Why is such a policy still on the proposal to revoke an employee’s an “initial counseling session” in which books at all more than 15 years after security clearance. In other words, a “counseling officer” will discuss with the demise of the Soviet Union? Even the employee hadn’t violated the rule, the employee “the effect of the [rela- more alarming — and, frankly, uncon- so DS changed (in its proposal to tionship] on the employee’s career or scionable — is the fact that in the post- revoke) the wording of the rule to future assignments” and “the employ- 9/11 era, neither the 3 FAM nor 12 make it seem as if he had. ee’s continued access to classified FAM CRR require employees to This kind of behavior on the part of material.” But the counseling session report contacts, friendships or even DS is unacceptable and must stop becomes utterly pointless if the sporadic romantic or sexual interludes immediately. State Department em- employee’s clearance has already been with known members of terrorist ployees cannot be expected to follow, suspended, if the employee has groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the or be disciplined for violating, “rules” already been curtailed from post, and Taliban or al-Qaida (virtually none of that do not appear in the FAM, the so on. Thus, the defining feature of whose members are nationals of the department’s only authoritative rule- the department’s stated contact world’s five remaining communist book. reporting policy — the notion that an countries) or with citizens of such U.S. Solution: Hold DS accountable for employee can, without penalty, report adversaries as Iran, Syria or Burma. its actions and insist that it follow the a contact and get meaningful and How would Secretary Rice explain this same rules that govern every other timely feedback from DS as to any glaring oversight to a member of Con- bureau. known security concerns associated gress or a reporter? And more funda- The CRR are riddled with pro- with that contact “for use as [the mentally, can this really be the depart- found conceptual flaws and catch- employee] sees fit” (3 FAM) — is ment’s intended policy? 22s that render key provisions lit- completely negated. Solution: Update the provisions of erally nonsensical. As noted above, Solution: Rectify conceptual flaws 3 FAM 4100, Appendix B, to reflect the the communist-oriented non-frater- such as these immediately. realities and concerns of the 21st cen- nization policy contained in 3 FAM, The FAM fails to define nearly tury; fully implement 95 State 93112. that we all thought became defunct every term critical to an accurate There is a documented pro- long ago, remains on the books and is understanding of the CRR. For pensity on the part of DS to fabri- enforceable at the sole discretion of example, not a single one of the fol- cate, and hold employees ac- DS. DS is thus technically within its lowing six published terms referring to countable to, contact reporting rights to strip a State employee of his countries of special interest in the

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CRR context is defined in any section doesn’t seem to know. In the absence intimate” relationship? And who of the FAM, including the presumably of any definitions, how would the aver- makes that determination?) authoritative “Definitions of Diplo- age employee know? • “sexually intimate” (Does kissing, matic Security Terms” (12 FAM 090): And here are some other terms or writing a flirtatious or erotic e-mail • “communist-governed/allied coun- (from 3 FAM), all vital to an accurate message, constitute a “sexually inti- try” (3 FAM) understanding of the CRR, that cry mate” relationship?) • “criteria country” (3 FAM) out for precise definition, particularly • “reportable relationship” (As • “designated country” (12 FAM) in the Internet age: noted above, an employee’s career can • “critical threat (counterintelli- • “equivalent bonds” (a term in the hinge on the interpretation of this gence) post listed on the department’s very title of the 3 FAM CRR that has term, but it is not independently Security Environment Threat List” no self-evident or readily understood defined in the FAM.) (12 FAM) meaning outside the fields of chem- Solution: Reformulate the CRR to • “critical human intelligence (HU- istry and finance) define all terms critical to an accurate MINT) threat post” (12 FAM) • “relationship” (Does a “one-night understanding of its provisions. • “country considered to pose an stand” constitute a “relationship” in Key provisions of the FAM exceptional counterintelligence threat the CRR context? What about an e- employ grammar that is amateur- to the U.S. according to the composite mail exchange?) ishly imprecise, confusing and threat list” (95 State 93112) • “contact” (Does an e-mail ex- sometimes misleading. For exam- Do these terms (e.g., the second, change count as a contact?) ple, 3 FAM requires employees to fourth, fifth and sixth) refer to the • “romantically intimate” (Does a “report any relationship (not only con- same grouping of countries? Even DS date or two constitute a “romantically tinuing relationships) with a national

16 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 S PEAKING O UT A time of service…a time of need Help for Seniors May of a communist-governed/allied country … at the first opportunity.” The Be Just a Phone Call Away— context — a discussion of exclusively “romantically or sexually intimate rela- The Senior Living Foundation may be tionships,” including marriage — able to help you or someone you know. makes it abundantly clear that the Some examples of assistance are: term “any relationship” here refers only to a “romantically and sexually N Home Health Care intimate relationship.” N Adult Day Care & Respite Care But because the instruction does N Prescription Drug Copayments not say “Report any romantically or sexually intimate relationship (not only N Transportation to Medical Appointments continuing relationships),” it gives rise N Durable Medical Equipment to the possibility of over-broad interpretation on the part of DS. The pur- For more information, please contact the pose of the CRR is to articulate depart- SENIOR LIVING FOUNDATION ment policy and inform employees of OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE N their responsibilities. The goal should 1716 N Street, NW Washington, DC 20036-2902 Phone: (202) 887-8170 N Fax: (202) 872-9320 not be “strategic ambiguity,” but surgi- E-Mail: [email protected] N Web Site: www.SLFoundation.org cal precision. SPONSORED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATION Solution: Ensure that every term and provision of the CRR is as precise and clear as possible. The contact reporting requirements are extremely poorly organized. For example, the 3 FAM provision (cited in full above) that a reportable relationship with a communist national “will preclude continued security clearance” and “assignment to sensitive duties/posts,” and will trigger a “full investigation,” is buried in an obscure subsection of 3 FAM innocu- ously titled “Initial Counseling” — fully three pages removed from the requirement to report communist relationships at the first opportunity. This passage, which outlines the serious, even career-ending, measures the department will take in such cases, ought to be immediately adjacent to the requirement at issue. Solution: Organize the FAM CRR more logically. Finally, the FAM omits an entire class of reporting requirements; namely, those pertaining to holders of sensitive compartment- ed information clearances. The only enumeration of SCI-specific CRR is the 2004 State Department

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announcement, “Responsibilities of to the department, its employees and cess will forever be elusive as long as Personnel with SCI Access” (2004-09- the classified information they handle. the CRR are as riddled with major 099). Why doesn’t this information Though the problems outlined in this flaws as they are at present. The costs appear anywhere in the relevant FAM letter are profound, they are easily of continued inaction will be mea- sections? This conspicuous omission remedied; this is not rocket science. sured in terms of more needlessly perpetuates confusion among State Now is the time to end the abomina- ruined Foreign Service careers, un- employees, including DS agents. For tion that is the department’s current necessarily compromised information, example, DS agents sometimes apply contact reporting regime and develop and the sounds of laughter and clink- SCI terms and concepts (which do not in its place a set of requirements that ing glasses in the headquarters of hos- appear anywhere in the 3 or 12 FAM are better conceived, more precisely tile intelligence services around the CRR), such as the oft-invoked “close crafted and articulated and, above all, world. I implore management to con- and continuing contact” formulation, more protective of department per- front this critical issue immediately. in cases in which the employee does sonnel and information. There is no Our diplomats and our nation deserve not have an SCI clearance. room in a U.S. Cabinet agency — let no less. Solution: Include in the FAM the alone the oldest and most venerable CRR that pertain to SCI-holders. — for regulations this carelessly cob- David Firestein, a Foreign Service This open letter highlights some of bled together. officer since 1992, has served in the most egregious problems with the As 12 FAM states, “The success of Beijing, Moscow and Washington, CRR in the hopes of alerting State’s the [department’s contact reporting] D.C. Currently assigned to the EAP management — as AFSA has repeat- policy is dependent ... upon each Office of Public Diplomacy, he won edly tried to do — to the clear and employee’s understanding of and the 2006 Secretary’s Award for Public present danger the current CRR pose cooperation with its intent.” That suc- Outreach.

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UNDERSTANDING VLADIMIR PUTIN Ben Fishman

WHILE HE SHARES THE KREMLIN’S TRADITIONAL PREFERENCE FOR CENTRALIZING POWER, PUTIN’S APPROACH DIFFERS FROM THAT OF HIS PREDECESSORS.

BY DALE HERSPRING

ussian President Vladimir Putin had two overarching goals when he succeeded Boris Yeltsin in 2000, goals he has continued to pursue for seven years. First and foremost, he wants to rebuild the Russian state. By destroying communism, Yeltsin had allowed democracy to flourish as never before in Russian history, Rbut at a price Putin deemed unacceptable: Moscow’s authority over much of the country had been seriously undermined.

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Regional governments regularly Putin’s top-down Putin’s previous career in the KGB, ignored the Kremlin’s wishes, pass- is his devotion to the state. To ing laws that contradicted the approach to governance Putin, Russia is just a larger form of Russian Constitution. For exam- the bureaucracy in which he once ple, the charter for the oblast of appears authoritarian, served. As a KGB officer, he was Sverdlovsk provided for both a gov- part of an organization in which ernor and a head of government, but he does not appear to meritocracy, discipline and order but federal law provides that gover- were paramount. If he was given an nors head the executive branch. In be trying to reintroduce order, he was expected to carry it Voronezh, the procuracy found that out, and for many years he did just regional officials were being paid a Soviet regime. that. salaries higher than federal rules Indeed, this is key to his some- allowed. And the Constitutional what ambivalent attitude toward Court ruled in 2000 that references to “sovereignty” in democracy. While Putin’s top-down approach to gover- local charters or constitutions were unconstitutional. nance appears authoritarian, it is important to keep in Lacking direction from the top, the nation seemed to mind that he does not appear to be trying to reimpose a be running on automatic pilot. Soviet or Stalinist regime on Russia. That danger always Putin has a parallel goal on the external front: to re- exists, of course, but to date he has shown no interest in establish the Russian state as a major player on the inter- enforcing strict conformity throughout the system. national scene, one that would balance the United States Rather, as is normal in a bureaucracy, Putin believes the and Europe. Shortly after taking office, the new presi- leader should be able to set the organization’s parameters, dent traveled around the world, visiting such former and those who work in it should operate within them. Soviet client-states as Cuba, China and North Korea. Last year, for example, the Kremlin enacted a rather His message to the West was clear: I may not be as stringent set of regulations that nongovernmental orga- strong as you, but I can be a nuisance if you ignore me. nizations must meet in order to operate in Russia. Moscow claims that the rules are only intended to ration- A Bureaucrat Par Excellence alize the operation of these organizations, but it could Yet, while he shares the Kremlin’s traditional prefer- still be an ominous sign. The concern on the part of ence for centralizing power, Putin’s approach to achiev- many Russians I have dealt with is that whatever Putin ing both these goals is different from that of his prede- has in mind, local authorities will interpret the new reg- cessors in several important respects. ulations in a way that seriously restricts the autonomy The first, which should come as no surprise given and ability of NGOs — especially those that focus on human rights — to operate in the country. Dale Herspring was a Foreign Service officer from 1971 to That said, if Putin were convinced that the introduc- 1991, serving mainly in Eastern Europe and the Soviet tion of greater forms of what we in the West understand Union and specializing in political-military affairs. A pro- as democracy would help him deal with Russia’s prob- fessor of political science at Kansas State University since lems, then I believe he would probably move in that 1993, he is the author or editor of 11 books and more than direction, even though it runs counter to his under- 80 articles, including: Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Fu- standing of the Russian mind-set. ture Uncertain (Rowman and Littlefield; 3rd edition, This philosophy helps explain Putin’s approach to the 2007), The Kremlin and the High Command: Presidential mass media, as well. His administration has set narrow Impact on the Military from Gorbachev to Putin (Univer- parameters for what can be criticized and much broader sity Press of Kansas, 2006), The Pentagon and The Presi- criteria for what is off-limits to criticism (e.g., direct dency: Civil-Military Relations from Franklin Roosevelt to attacks on the president), and believes it is up to the George W. Bush (University Press of Kansas, 2005), and media to abide by those restrictions to stave off chaos. Russian Civil-Military Relations: Past and Present (Indi- To enforce this approach, the Kremlin has restricted the ana University Press, 1996). ability of the media — both TV and newspapers — to

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operate. Television and print jour- The Kremlin’s message Realization of Priority National nalists have been co-opted, while Projects. While these organizations, those who openly oppose the regime to the West is clear: made up of individuals from differ- have come under considerable present walks of life, advise the president sure to avoid criticizing the Kremlin. I may not be as strong on matters of public policy, and he His bureaucratic mind-set also even meets with them on occasion, helps explain his approach to issues as you, but I can they cannot compel him to do any- such as legal reform, the military thing. and even Chechnya. Once he has be a nuisance if you come up with a structural paradigm The Importance of Culture for meeting such challenges, he then ignore me. A second and equally important expects the rest of the system to fall factor influencing Putin’s thinking is into line. Indeed, for him the answer Russian political culture. While he to many questions comes in the form of structural modifi- has not used the term, he has made use of the concept. cations. In the aftermath of the horrific September 2004 For example, when asked if Russia planned to imitate terrorist attack on a school in Beslan, he cited security the Chinese model (i.e., economic liberalization with failures on the part of local officials to push through minimal political freedom), he categorically ruled that national legislation giving him the authority to appoint out. When asked why, he responded, “Because we have provincial governors, instead of their standing for elec- a different culture. After all, Russia is a country of tion. European culture.” The situation with the judiciary is similar. Putin has On another occasion Putin commented, “Russia is a introduced a number of reforms that encourage the use country that, by the will of its people, chose democracy of the legal system to resolve disputes. The difficulty is for itself. It set out on this course itself and, observing that when legal issues involve important matters of state, all generally accepted political norms, will decide for they are manipulated to ensure that the Kremlin gets its itself how to ensure that the principles of freedom and way. democracy are implemented, taking into account its his- The same strategy characterizes Putin’s tightening torical, geographical and other characteristics.” control over both of Russia’s key legislative organs — the To paraphrase Stalin’s remark regarding the introduc- Duma (Parliament) and the Federation Council, which tion of communism in Poland, Putin believes Western was set up to represent the regions (somewhat similar in democracy would fit the Russian people like a saddle fits theory to the U.S. Senate). It did not take Putin long to a cow. He openly expressed his doubts about the applic- maneuver himself into effective control of the Duma, ability of the Western experience in Russia in his first by marginalizing those who opposed him, such as Millennium Speech of January 2000: the communists, and then by establishing a new political “It will not happen soon, if it ever happens at all, that grouping, the Unity Party. Its members sometimes crit- Russia will become the second edition of, say, the U.S. or icize the Kremlin publicly, but when it comes to votes on Britain, in which liberal values have deep historical tra- critical issues, Putin nearly always gets what he wants. ditions. Our state and its institutions have always played As he did with governors, Putin substantially in- an exceptionally important role in the life of the country creased Moscow’s leverage in determining which local and its people. For Russians, a strong state is not an officials serve on the Federation Council. Through such anomaly that should be gotten rid of. Quite the contrary, measures he quickly undermined the independence of they see it as a source and guarantor of order and the ini- the legislative branch and weakened local government tiator and main driving force of any change.” organs. In essence, that describes exactly what Putin has been Another step Putin has taken has been to create what doing since he took office: strengthening state authority Emory University political scientist Tom Remington calls while permitting freedom — but only to the extent that “parallel parliaments”: organizations such as the State it does not get in the way of the efficient functioning of Council, the Public Chamber and the Council for the the country’s bureaucratic structures. And he may well

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be right that this is what the average Russian wants: A with his ideas about military reform. public poll conducted in November 2006 found Putin’s Yet such steps have contributed to Russia’s increas- approval rating was 81 percent. Indeed, his approval rat- ingly important role in the world. The country no longer ing for most of the past seven years has hovered around owes any external debt. And with the price of gas going 70 to 80 percent. Very few politicians anywhere in the through the roof, Putin has used Russia’s newfound eco- world can claim so high a level of public support. nomic strength to assert himself vis-a-vis Europe, which badly needs Russia’s oil. He also raised the price Putin the Pragmatist Moscow charges Ukraine, Belarus and other former This brings me to the third factor that plays a major allies, conveying a simple message: “If you want to go role in Putin’s decisionmaking approach: his nonideolog- your own way, have a good time. But don’t expect us to ical attitude. To quote his Millennium Speech again: “I subsidize your economy.” am against the restoration of an official state ideology in The same capitalist zeal characterizes his policy Russia in any form.” Instead, the key question for Putin toward Iran, where Moscow has major economic invest- is “Does it work?” If the answer is yes, then do it that ments worth billions of dollars. Though very hesitant to way. And if Plan A doesn’t work, then try Plan B; every- jeopardize those stakes, Putin eventually agreed to weak thing is on the table. sanctions against Tehran for allegedly pursuing a nuclear Frankly, this, too, should not come as a surprise. weapons capability. But he did so only after speaking When it came to problem-solving, the KGB was one of personally with Bush to make it clear that Moscow the least ideological organizations in the Soviet Union. would never approve military action against Iran. The task was always to get the job done, to solve the problem at hand. Based on his conversations with KGB Authoritarianism Without Repression? agents over the years, this writer has formed the impres- So what should we call Putin’s form of governance? sion that, while they believed they were the “sword and No label, especially one taken from another political sys- shield” of the state, they saw their primary task as solving tem, would fit the Russian system exactly. No two cul- the problems given to them by the “center.” tures are exactly the same, and culture usually gives rise Similarly, for all his carping at U.S. foreign policy, it to the form of governance in a country. Thus, to be should not be forgotten that Putin was also the first for- effective, a system of governance must fit the political eign leader to call George Bush following the 9/11 beliefs and attitudes of the people. attacks to express his sympathy for the American public. However, the factors I have been discussing — And when the Russian military dragged its feet on pro- Putin’s preference for reliance on the state, his nonideo- viding the Americans with intelligence information on logical approach, his pragmatic attitude, his belief in the Afghanistan, he went to the Defense Ministry on Sept. importance of Russian political culture, and his cautious, 24, 2001 — just prior to his first visit to President Bush’s incremental approach to problem-solving — all suggest Crawford ranch — to press them to be more forthcom- that the term “authoritarianism without repression” may ing. It is therefore no accident that Putin was invited fit his style best. back to Crawford several more times, though it is ques- As Putin sees things, he was unexpectedly given the tionable whether he will receive another invitation given task of trying to bring Russia out of the mess he found it his harsher criticism of the U.S. recently. in when he came to power in 2000. He shouldered that The fourth characteristic of Putin’s approach to polit- responsibility and is trying to solve Russia’s many prob- ical and economic problems is that he is not a long- lems as he “manages” the country. He fears that if he range, conceptual planner. His focus tends to be on does not impose order through the power of the state, immediate issues, just as it was when he was in the KGB. Russia will collapse into anarchy during the current This helps explain why he never came up with a careful- “time of troubles.” He may be wrong about that, but he ly thought-out, long-range plan for solving the country’s sees no alternative. chronic economic problems. Instead, his focus has been This is why he was prepared to jail billionaire Mikhail on specific issues such as raising the price of oil, getting Khodorkovsky. Putin made it clear early on that he rid of obnoxious oligarchs, or forcing generals to go along would not permit those who had gained tremendous

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wealth (the so-called “oligarchs”) It should not be on Feb. 11, he made headlines by during Yeltsin’s privatization pro- declaring that Washington has gram, to use that wealth for political forgotten that Putin was “overstepped its national borders in purposes. The majority of them every way ... in the economic, politi- thus far have been left alone; howev- the first foreign leader cal and cultural policies it imposes er, Khodorkovsky refused to play by on other nations.” He also ex- Putin’s rules and, as a result, now sits to express condolences pressed nostalgia for the Cold War in a Russian jail. at the same forum: “We are indebt- Whatever outsiders may think, it following the ed to the balance of power between is clear that Putin enjoys the support these two superpowers. This was of the overwhelming majority of the 9/11 attacks. certainly a fragile peace and a Russian people for what he presents frightening one. But it was reli- as a rational approach for dealing able enough. Today it seems that with the country’s multifaceted problems. Seen from his the peace is not so reliable.” The speech was a direct perspective, he has been successful; domestically, Russia attack on the United States for the “unilateral” role it is is more stable than it was when he came to power. playing in the world. Internationally, Putin believes Russia is no longer a “beg- Putin has also shown he is prepared to use whatever gar” state and deserves to have the rest of the world, leverage Russia has against former Soviet states such as including the United States, take it seriously. Georgia and Azerbaijan. He and his defense minister Speaking at an international conference in Munich have repeatedly attacked Washington for its advocacy of

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NATO expansion. The bottom line To paraphrase Stalin, and only this man.” The fact is that is that Putin is not prepared to have Russians appear to have a more opti- his country play second fiddle to Putin believes Western mistic view of their future than they anyone. did seven years ago. And to a large democracy would fit degree, Putin’s presidency is the rea- The Price of Stability son. “There is a totally different I do not anticipate any significant the Russian people like mood in the country from what we changes in Moscow’s current poli- had seven years ago,” says the schol- cies, domestic or diplomatic, during a saddle fits a cow. ar Vyacheslav Nikonov. “Everyone the remainder of Putin’s time in was sunk in depression after all the office. But what is the outlook for disasters and humiliations of the Russian society after his departure from the presidency 1990s. Today there is optimism. The country is moving next year? Certainly Putin has tightened the screws on ahead, and we have things to be proud of again.” the political system since he took office, putting any It is worth noting, however, that Putin is betting on march toward a Western-style democracy on hold. In its the high price of Russia’s oil exports and the prosperity place, there is stability — but for how long? they bring as the basis for a stable political system. If the “Russia is today a kind of plebiscite democracy, where economy should collapse, or if another catastrophe one-man rule is preserved through democratic institu- should hit Russia, the progress that Nikonov cites could tions,” analyst Vitaly Tretyakov observes. “But as long as turn into stagnation, with all the political unknowns that there is stability, people will be primed to trust this man, such a situation could trigger.

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PREPARING FOR THE POST-PUTIN ERA Ben Fishman

WHERE IS RUSSIA HEADED? HERE IS A LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES BEFORE THE COUNTRY AND THE RUSSIAN ELITE’S CAPACITY TO COPE WITH THEM.

BY LILIA SHEVTSOVA

he Vladimir Putin era is nearing the end of the line. The next presidential election is due in March 2008, and the Russian political class is now preparing to jump aboard a new train. Before the election frenzy begins, we ought to reflect on the state of Russia today and where the country is headed. TheT current debate — between the “pessimists,” some of whom claim that Vladimir Putin has betrayed Boris Yeltsin’s liberal reforms while others try to argue that Russians are incapable of living in a democratic system, and the “optimists,”

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who praise the current regime, believing that authoritari- military, law enforcement and security services), big busi- anism is Russia’s only path to modernization — misses the ness and liberal technocrats. point. Argument over whether Putin is a Jekyll or a Hyde, These disparate groups have congealed into a bureau- or whether the Yeltsin years were good and the Putin cratic corporation, which tries not only to make the pres- years bad, or vice versa, fails to address either the funda- ident its hostage but also presents its own interests as mental challenges Russia faces or the capacity of the those of the Russian state. Contrary to one popular Russian elite to cope with them. But now these issues are assumption, its membership is not mainly made up of perhaps clearer than ever. “siloviki” (former officials of the intelligence and military In the following, we examine the framework of the agencies), who have failed to demonstrate the ability to Russian political system, looking at its stability, what it can govern, but rather the apparatchiki (federal and local) deliver in terms of domestic and foreign policy, and the who have restored control over the state they lost in the prospects for future transformation. In particular, we seek 1990s. Ironically, liberal technocrats constitute a critical insight into two major questions of relevance today: What element of the corporation, injecting a spirit of dynamism will happen when the factors currently holding Russia and at the same time discrediting liberalism. together stop working? And, how far off is this moment In preparation for the approaching election cycle, the of truth? Russian political elite has devoted all of its resources to maintaining the status quo. It may succeed in this, as long Personified Power as it manages to prevent a schism from developing within Those who argue that Putin made a sharp break with its ranks. Bickering inside the Kremlin, however, has the Yeltsin era have a hard time proving it. To be sure, already begun in earnest. Putin’s successor will most like- he has torn down some elements of his predecessor’s ly have to follow in his footsteps, consolidating the new rule. But by doing so, he bolstered the principle of per- rule by denouncing his predecessor and forcing today’s sonified power, a principle that Yeltsin established. Kremlin team into early retirement. Thus, Putin showed himself truly to be Yeltsin’s succes- There is no reason to assume that Putin intends to sor: both leaders contributed to maintaining a system remain in the Kremlin beyond the end of his second term that survives by succeeding one set of arbitrary rules (to do so would require a change in the Russian with another, each accompanied with a new rhetoric Constitution). Putin surely understands that were he to substituting for a nonexistent ideology, and each tied to stay on, he would become a puppet of the new adminis- the leader himself. By contrast with a system based on tration: the leader who dismantles the constitution under- the rule of law, this system is uniquely limited and vul- mines the legitimacy of his presidency and thereby desta- nerable. bilizes the political system, based as it is on personal lead- Under Putin, personified power has assumed the form ership. Still, it is unclear whether he will manage to guar- of a bureaucratic-authoritarian regime. The concentra- antee a smooth succession. tion of power in the hands of a president has led many to conclude that the current regime is autocratic. But Bureaucracy’s Victories over the Market appearances are deceptive: in fact, the Russian president The economic foundation of the current Russian sys- is increasingly dependent on his base, which is comprised tem is bureaucratic capitalism, which has replaced of the “apparatchiki,” the so-called power structures (the Yeltsin’s oligarchic capitalism. Having gained a sense of self-confidence, the bureaucracy no longer requires inter- Lilia Shevtsova is a senior associate with the Carnegie mediaries to run the economy. This does not necessarily Endowment for International Peace, where she co-chairs imply nationalization or redemption of property, as hap- the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions pened with the oil companies Yuganskneftegaz and Project, dividing her time between Washington, D.C., and Sibneft. The bureaucratic corporation has devised other Moscow. Prior to joining Carnegie, she was deputy direc- ways to control assets, particularly by installing its repre- tor of the Moscow Institute of International Economic and sentatives on the boards of private companies. The ruling Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and elite will undoubtedly tighten its grip on the economy, director of the Center of Political Studies in Moscow. although some private companies under Kremlin control

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— the telecommunications sector, A significant portion of internal rivalries, a search for scape- for example — will be preserved. In goats and vain attempts to project the process of redistributing assets, the Russian elite is trying self-confidence. While it makes a however, the regime has jeopar- show of being mighty and powerful, dized its continuity. By undermin- to have it both ways: the Russian state has proved too ing property rights, it has left itself weak to keep its commitments to with no guarantee that the new rul- integration with the West business and society, and too feeble ing team will not start the cycle over to maintain order based on the rule again, with a fresh round of privati- for themselves and their of law. Meanwhile, arbitrary, inter- zation creating a new oligarchy that ventionist behavior is scaring off will also be temporary. families, but not for the potential investors. Foreign invest- The limits of Russian bureau- ment is still coming in, to be sure; cratic capitalism are now becoming rest of society. but Russian cash is fleeing in the clear, too. Despite nominal contin- form of the drive by the country’s uing economic growth at a rate of mega-companies to acquire assets about 6.8 percent per year, the Russian economy is los- in the West, now politely called “export of capital.” ing steam due to the fact that reforms are stalled, Until recently the elite considered over-reliance on attempts to diversify have failed and growth is based natural resource exports to be a weakness, recognizing more on consumption than investment. Under the cir- that this strategy testifies to the government’s failure to cumstances, the government is increasingly torn by develop a diversified, competitive, high-tech economy.

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But today the Kremlin is attempting to turn this liability its foreign affairs minister, Sergei Lavrov, that Russia can- into a strength by transforming Russia into an “energy not take sides in global conflicts, but must act as a media- superpower.” Natural resources account for 80 percent tor — a la Moscow’s attempts to intervene in the ongoing of total exports, and energy accounts for 60 percent of disputes between the West and Iran or Hamas. In short, resource exports. More than 50 percent of investment Russia is not going to join the West. Regardless of how it flows into the natural resources sector. might be spun, Russia’s relationship with the West is now Other characteristics of what could be called a petro- one of “partner-opponent” — cooperation in certain areas state are also becoming increasingly pronounced: the and obstruction in others, all on the Kremlin’s own terms. fusion of business and power; the emergence of a rentier Ukraine’s Orange Revolution proved to be a water- class that lives on revenue from the sale of natural shed in the evolution of Russia’s post-Soviet identity and resources; endemic corruption; the dominion of large foreign policy by provoking the Kremlin’s desire to recov- monopolies; the vulnerability of the economy to external er lost ground. The Russian elite now seeks to persuade shocks; the threat of “Dutch disease,” where high oil the West to endorse a new “Yalta Agreement,” in which prices drive up the value of the ruble, putting a premi- the West would recognize the former Soviet space as um on imports and undercutting manufacturing exports Russia’s area of influence, and accept its role as energy to the detriment of domestic industry; and a large gap superpower. As for the latter, Putin has offered the world between rich and poor. a two-part energy security proposal: First, Russia would Russia differs from other petro-states in one respect, give foreign investors access to its major deposits in however: the more it becomes a natural resources exchange for allowing Russian companies access to for- appendage for the rest of the world, the more its elite eign pipelines and retail networks. Second, the West soothes its inferiority complex by promoting Russia’s would legitimize the fusion of state power and business in ambitions to be a global player. A new phenomenon, the Russia by letting state companies like Gazprom act as “nuclear petro-state” with superpower ambitions, may yet transnational majors. surprise the world. The West is not enthusiastic about Putin’s bargain, but appears to be at a loss as to how to build relations with Russia in the Global Arena Moscow. Meanwhile, the new Russian assertiveness has After 15 years of retreat in its foreign policy, Russia is already triggered two energy conflicts — with Ukraine regaining confidence. This confidence stems not only and Belarus — sending shock waves around Europe. from high oil prices and the Kremlin’s attempt to over- Elaborating the new foreign policy doctrine, Foreign come the humiliation of the 1990s, but also from purely Minister Lavrov has offered the idea of the “geopolitical external factors: the confusion surrounding European triangle,” with the U.S., Europe and Russia as the corners; integration, America’s difficulties in Iraq and world Lavrov also called for abandoning the old alliances in favor resentment of U.S. hegemony. However, the most pow- of “network diplomacy.” Along the same lines, President erful factor explaining Russia’s new assertiveness is neces- Putin, in his Feb. 11 speech at the Munich Conference on sity. The Russian system can’t consolidate itself without a Security Policy, put Russia forward as a pole of opposition global presence. Maintaining Russia’s superpower ambi- to the U.S., yet simultaneously hinted at his desire to tions and its domination of the former Soviet space is cru- remain a partner of the West. cial to the perpetuation of its political system. How far is Moscow ready to go to pursue this new, con- During Putin’s first term, the Kremlin developed a troversial agenda? Is it ready for confrontation with the multivector approach to foreign policy, which amounted West? A significant portion of the Russian elite is trying to simultaneously moving west and east while refusing to to have it both ways: integration with the West for them- make a final commitment to either direction. A substitute selves and their families, but not for the rest of society. for the old geopolitical agenda, this approach was essen- These representatives of the ruling class, such as the oli- tial for Russia’s survival in light of its diminished power garch and governor Roman Abramovich, live in the West and failure to integrate with the West. But today the with their families, hold accounts in Western banks and Kremlin has abandoned ambiguity. For the first time even manage their Russian assets and perform their jobs since perestroika, Moscow has publicly declared through from abroad. Yet, when back in Russia, they make a big

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show of nationalism. The Russian elite can only maintain gy field, could set in motion a process over which both it their privileged status in a society that is hostile to the and the West lose control. West — but not too hostile, lest their personal fortunes in the Western banks be threatened. That means that a An Uneasy Balance major portion of the elite is not ready for serious conflict Situational factors help explain the current stolidity of with the West over any of the above-mentioned goals. At Russian society. High oil prices are keeping the econo- the same time, however, another subset of the elite, who my stable. In addition, the Russian people are still lack such personal connections with the West, may be recovering from the turmoil of the Yeltsin years, so they prepared for — may even long for — a conflict they remain disenchanted with the political opposition. could use to oust the moderates from the Kremlin. Political strategists have managed to fill the vacuum left It would be wrong to assume that cooperation in by the opposition with virtual political forces that leave areas of common interest to Russia and the West will little room for genuine social movements. The current diminish the tension in the relationship. Indeed, just the regime attempts to incorporate all of the popular ideas opposite is occurring, as demonstrated by the growing that come along by co-opting them from the opposition. differences on terrorism, nonproliferation and energy However, Russia’s present stability is slowly being security. This new situation creates tough challenges for undermined by conflicts embedded in the system. pragmatists on both sides, who understand the conse- Among these are the inherent conflicts between person- quences of Russia and the West drifting too far apart. ified power and the democratic source of its legitimacy, Moscow’s tougher line, designed to secure greater lever- and between the regime’s attempt to preserve the status age in the international arena, and especially in the ener- quo even as it redistributes the country’s wealth.

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Moreover, the situational factors The temptation to pressuring Ukraine during the “gas providing stability today could have conflict” stoked anti-Russian senti- the opposite effect tomorrow. Those demand free and fair ment there, undermined Moscow’s who rest their hopes on oil to stabi- reputation as a responsible partner lize Russia in the long term forget elections in Russia in and encouraged Europe to look for that the collapse of the Soviet Union alternative sources of energy. began with a steep decline in the 2007 and 2008 could No one can predict how long sta- price of oil in 1986. bility can be maintained in such a Russian society supports Presi- prove to be a trap. closed system. At present Russia’s dent Putin, but this does not mean equilibrium seems secure, but all that people are happy with his poli- bets are off if the price of oil falls cies. Recent polls show that among Russians, 72 percent dramatically, or if the president’s approval ratings take a say they approve of the president’s actions, yet only 19 nose dive. This is not likely to occur to the Teflon-like percent consider him a successful leader. Seventy-five Putin, but could easily happen to his successor. In the percent say order is Russia’s most important priority, absence of high ratings for the leader who serves as the while just 13 percent opt for democracy above all — but substitute for a political system, one hardly can hope for only 15 percent say that human rights should be sacri- stability to endure. ficed to the state’s interests. Such survey results suggest that Russians do not totally reject Western values. Is There a Path to Like any society that has not yet learned to live in Modernization for Russia? freedom, Russian society is subject to manipulation. War and the militarization of everyday life were the But it is worth noting that Russians have never elected engines of Russia’s two periods of modernization under a nationalist or communist president; rather, they have Peter the Great and Josef Stalin. By bringing the stand- elected pro-Western leaders who declared their inten- off between the Soviet Union and the West to an end, tion to modernize the country — Yeltsin and Putin. Mikhail Gorbachev shut these engines down. Failing to Russia’s ruling elite, by contrast, continues to live in the find a new impulse to spur reform, the Russian elite has past. The possibility that a crisis will prompt the elite fallen back on the spirit of militarism. The regime now to turn completely to nationalism and xenophobia, and attempts to revive a fortress mentality and cynically cre- that a part of society will follow, cannot be excluded. In ates new myths — among them the belief that the nation fact, the growing nationalistic sentiment in Russia is can modernize by distancing itself from the West, even already alarming, and there are signs that the authori- as it relies on the West’s economic and technological ties cannot control it: the growing numbers of attacks resources. On occasion, the Russian elite even borrows and murders perpetrated by the Russian skinheads and language used by the Bush administration to justify its pogroms such as the recent ethnic clash in the city of emphasis on military might and its role as “the only sov- Kondopoga in Karelia, are exemplary. If Russia moves ereign” in Eurasia. further in this direction, it will do so because the elite But if Russia is not moving forward, it is not quite has failed to offer society a constructive alternative to slipping back into the “premodernity” of the Soviet or the old trick of unifying the country by creating an pre-Soviet era either. Not having the resources (or even external enemy. the political will) to fully resurrect the old traditions, the The law of unintended consequences also applies political class is attempting something new in Russian here. The harder the regime tries to create a loyal “civil history. It is stitching together a hybrid, combining ele- society,” the more likely it is to push the disenchanted ments of traditionalism with elements of modernism — and disenfranchised members of society into the streets a process that fortunately weakens the former but at the in protest. The regime’s efforts to marginalize the oppo- same time, unfortunately, undermines the latter. In the sition will only increase its unpredictability and hostility end, Russia’s bureaucratic-authoritarian system can cre- to the system as a whole. That is just as true of Russia’s ate the illusion of development — and many people are attempt to flex its muscles in the former Soviet space: prepared to believe in illusions — but nothing more.

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Meanwhile, Putin will bequeath his successor a diffi- engaging Moscow without legitimizing bureaucratic cult legacy, which includes suspended reforms in the authoritarianism. This task will require a great deal of areas of military, banking, pension, health care, local self- diplomatic finesse and political will. And while Western government and economic deregulation; a non-diversi- politicians are figuring out how to proceed, the Kremlin fied economy; and an addiction to the oil and gas. will no doubt attempt to further co-opt its representa- Finally, he leaves a centralized state that has become the tives, as it has done in the case of former German key impediment to further Russian transformation, a Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. state that needs a hostile environment and a constant • Don’t let Russian leaders portray personal friend- search for the enemy in order to survive. There is no ship as tacit approval. Western leaders have ample doubt that if this system remains in place, Russia will opportunities to remind their counterparts about the face a crisis that could result in a far more brutal regime standards Russia committed to uphold when it joined or dramatically accelerate the slow process of rot now various international organizations, and to do so pri- setting in. Will the elite consider reforming the system vately without humiliating the Kremlin. before it is too late? • Make Ukraine a success story. The integration of This would require political will and a transforma- Ukraine (and, if possible, Belarus) into Europe would tional leadership, neither of which seems likely at pre- draw the ire of the Russian elite, but in the end such a sent. Those in power are unlikely to dispel the illusion success would help Russians discard the belief that they that all is well as long as the price of oil remains high. In are genetically unsuited to democracy. fact, the political class is unlikely to begin looking for a The time is coming when Russian authorities will pay way out until the oil actually starts to dry up. It is the even less heed to Western counsel. Once the self-per- business community that will no doubt be the first to petuation of power has begun, no one in the Kremlin realize that the current model leads to a dead end — but will be terribly concerned about how this process is only if societal discontent threatens to spin out of con- regarded outside of Russia. The West will also have a trol. difficult time finding the right approach to dealing with Russia during this period. Continued appeasement of Advice for the West: Do No Harm the Kremlin would only strengthen bureaucratic Under current conditions, the West cannot do much authoritarianism, but a hard line would most likely con- to aid Russia’s continuing transformation; but it can exert tribute to the rise of anti-Western feelings among the a limited influence on the members of the elite interest- Russian people. ed in personal integration with the West. The temptation to demand free and fair elections in • Practice what you preach. The success of a liberal Russia in 2007 and 2008 could prove to be another trap. alternative in Russia depends on the extent to which the Western leaders must take into account the fact that the West is prepared to reject double standards, abide by its Russian leadership has perfected the art of “managing” own principles, and find the balance between freedom elections. No amount of Western monitoring will alter and justice. the result. It is also worth considering that, in the • Pay attention. If the West wants to avoid being sur- absence of a powerful liberal-democratic opposition, prised by every twist and turn of events in Russia, it will truly free elections in Russia could bring a new group of have to invest in preparing a new generation of analysts nationalist, populist leaders to power. who can understand the complexities of the postcom- If the West can avoid these pitfalls, it could make a munist reality. genuine contribution to Russia’s benevolent transforma- • Consolidate the stakeholders. There has long been tion by working to convince the elite that it should be a need to move from a state-to-state dialogue to society- interested in establishing the rule of law for the sake of to-society dialogue, as well as the need to include in the its own survival. True, it is far more likely that Moscow conversation the parties on both sides who have a stake will have to reach the end of its rope before it can accept in Russia’s integration into Western civilization. the need to rethink its course. The only real question • Integrate Russia. The West must avoid isolating that remains, then, is what price Russia and the world Russia at all costs, despite the inherent difficulty in will have to pay for this epiphany.

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AN IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY?: RESOURCES, SPACE AND PEOPLE Ben Fishman

RUSSIA’S FUTURE DEPENDS ON HOW IT MANAGES ITS RESOURCES, ITS SPACE AND ITS PEOPLE.

BY CLIFFORD G. GADDY

he suddenness with which Russia has re-emerged as a global political and economic power has stunned observers. This time, its power rests not on tanks and nuclear missiles but on oil and gas. Russia has become a critical supplier of energy to a world whose demand is growing rapidly. At the same time, thanks to soaring prices forT these commodities, both the Russian state and its big corporations have turned into financial pow- erhouses. Is Russia’s newfound power only temporary, or will it last?

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High world oil prices are likely to The increase in The growth in the total market continue to bolster Russia’s wealth, value of Russia’s oil and gas is even strength and confidence in the short wealth flowing into more impressive. Figure 1 (p. 34) to medium term, but there are shows the value of these commodi- questions about the longer term. Russia from oil and ties produced on the territory of the Russia has yet to adequately address present-day Russian Federation from fundamental problems left behind gas is staggering. 1970 to the present. by decades of Soviet mismanage- It is important to distinguish ment of its economy. Some of these between the physical quantities of oil problems directly affect the future of Russia’s energy and gas Russia produces and exports, and the wealth wealth. The oil and gas of the future lie in the vast, cold generated from them. The wealth is due mainly to the expanses of the eastern part of the country. In the earli- increase in world prices: in the case of oil, from under er phase of energy wealth — the 1970s and early 1980s $10 a barrel to over $60. The price increase overshad- — Soviet economic planners committed great mistakes ows the levels of physical production. The output of oil by misdeveloping and overpopulating Siberia. To avoid grew strongly from 1999 through 2003; but since then, as repeating the same mistakes, Russian policymakers today shown in Figure 2 (p. 34), growth rates have dropped need a comprehensive view to tackle the dual challenges sharply. of resource management and Siberian development. Russia is not likely to resume strong output growth. The issue is all the more important because today Russia It is estimated that the country invests only half as much faces a shortage of one asset that it has in the past pos- in its oil and gas sectors as would be needed to sustain sessed in abundance — human beings. expansion of production over the longer term. For con- It is therefore worth examining Russia’s future in sumers throughout the world, the trend is disturbing. terms of how it deals with the challenge of managing its The price of oil that we all pay is determined by global resources, its space and its people. supply and demand. Over the past few years, Russia’s increased production has been the most important addi- Resource Plenty tion to the world pool of oil. (In fact, it almost exactly The benefits of abundant oil and gas reserves are easy matched the increase in demand from China, the fastest- to see. These resources turned Russia from a virtually growing consumer country.) Without Russia, world oil bankrupt country after its 1998 financial crisis into one prices would have been even higher. with real financial leverage today. The increase in wealth A fundamental question is whether the country is flowing into Russia from oil and gas is staggering. able, and whether it wants, to keep producing more. Consider the income from one component alone — There are voices inside Russia that now argue explicitly crude oil exports. Revenues from foreign sales of crude that the country should not continue to expand produc- in the four quarters prior to now-President Vladimir tion of oil. It is better to keep this precious resource in Putin’s appointment as prime minister in August 1999 the ground, they say, as it will only become more valu- were $14 billion. For the most recent four quarters, the able as time passes. corresponding number is over $150 billion. (By com- But even if Russia does attempt to expand produc- parison, in 1999 Russia’s total GDP in dollar terms was tion, it will face challenges of a qualitatively new dimen- only $200 billion.) sion. The increased oil pumped between 1999 and 2006 has been largely so-called “old oil” — that is, oil that had Clifford Gaddy is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institu- been left in the ground in mature fields. These are fields tion in Washington, D.C. His most recent books are The mainly in Western Siberia where infrastructure was Siberian Curse (Brookings Institution Press, 2003) and already in place. The oil itself was there for a combina- Russia’s Virtual Economy (Brookings Institution Press, tion of reasons. In the 1980s, desperate to pump as 2002). He is currently writing a new book with the work- much oil as possible as quickly as possible, the Soviet oil ing title, Bear Traps: Pitfalls on Russia’s Road to industry followed a strict “skim the cream” approach. Sustainable Economic Growth. Taking only the easy oil, they left all the rest in the

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ground. At the same time, they Spatial misallocation in world oil prices made even hard-to- employed such destructive practices in lift oil more attractive. Second, sub- their haste that the wells were consid- is an often- stantial parts of the oil industry had ered ruined. Industry insiders ques- been put in the hands of new, private tioned whether the remaining oil underappreciated owners — the so-called oligarchs — could ever be lifted. Meanwhile, dur- whose more entrepreneurial outlook ing the chaos of the post-Soviet feature of the allowed them to re-examine the status Russian economy of the early 1990s, of the old oil. New technology, it there was no effort to return to those Soviet system. turned out, was available internation- wells to recover the bypassed oil. ally that made it possible to lift oil Output on the territory of the Russian from the “ruined” wells. Output rose Federation plummeted from a Soviet-era peak of 562 year after year, reaching 480 million tons (9.6 mbd) in million tons per year (11.2 million barrels per day) to 2006. But with the good news came bad. With most of barely 300 million tons a year (6 mbd) in 1999. the bypassed oil now recovered, the question is, “where At the end of the decade, however, two circumstances now?” Oil producers in Russia will now have to shift changed the situation dramatically. First, the steady rise increasingly to new fields and new regions. The new oil, like most of the old, will be in Siberia, but where in Siberia? As in its previous oil boom, Russia is faced with critical decisions about Siberian development.

The Challenge of Vast Spaces Siberia represents a real boon in the form of resource wealth. However, it does have great associated costs — costs that rise at an increasing rate the further east one moves. The first component of the increased costs comes from the climate. Cold temperatures add extra costs to all economic activity. In a normal market economy, these costs are weighed against the benefits. Patterns of population settlement and location of industrial activity evolve accordingly. The Soviet economic system, however, largely ignored the issue of cost. Far Figure 1 too many people and too much manufacturing industry were moved to Siberia. As a result, Russia was made “economically colder” than it needed to be. (My colleague Fiona Hill and I discuss the cost to the Russian economy of the overdevelopment and misdevelopment of the region in The Siberian Curse.) The cold is not the only disadvantage of Siberia. Remoteness, or distance, is also important. Distance is the most basic obstacle to all economic interaction in market economies. Transportation costs are only part of the problem. When potential exchange partners are separated from one another physically, they are less likely to know about each other, to know what goods and services are available or needed. They are less likely to know each other’s reputation. They are less likely to Figure 2 share the same social networks. Therefore, the busi-

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nesses that produce, buy and sell in Siberia all have to overcome the obstacle of distance. Spatial misallocation is an often-underappreciated feature of the Soviet system. One way to recognize this is to imagine a counterfactual: suppose that the Bolshevik Revolution had taken place not in Russia but in Japan. Central planning under a “Japanese Stalin” would have done great damage to the economy. But it would not have caused as much spatial misallocation, simply because it would have had much less “room for error.” Spatial misallocation may well be the most difficult part of the Soviet legacy to overcome, as decades of mistakes have to be corrected. Has there been any corrective shift in the post-Soviet period? After the collapse of the command-administra- Figure 3 tive system of economic management in the early 1990s, free-market forces in Russia began rectifying the trated in Figure 3 above. mistakes of the Soviet era. People migrated out of the The index plotted on the chart is the average January coldest and most remote regions. However, that self- “temperature per square meter” of new housing. It adjustment came to a halt in 1999, a development illus- takes into account both the volume of new housing built

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in various regions of Russia and the The shrinking of Russia’s tal. The most significant aspect of average January temperature of Russia’s death rate is that it is those regions. (If relatively more population is inevitable. young men who die in such great housing is built in warmer regions, numbers. Russian males of prime the index rises, and vice versa.) Even radical measures working age — 25 to 55 years old That index rose by two full degrees — are dying at rates more than Celsius between 1991 and 1999. It will not be able to four times higher than American has since remained flat, and there men and seven to 11 times higher are signs that the trend may even prevent it. than Scandinavian, Dutch and be reversing. Plans for Siberian Japanese men in that age range. development and repopulation are Russian 26-year-old men die at the back on the national agenda. In June 2006 President same rate as Swedish or Japanese 56-year-old males. Putin announced a new migration program designed to Figure 5 (p. 38) shows that the problem is getting worse. attract ethnic Russians from abroad to return to Russia The shrinking of Russia’s population is inevitable. in order to repopulate Siberia and the East. Even radical measures will not be able to prevent it. What explains the change since 1999? This, of One logical conclusion is that people — the country’s course, is the year Putin came to power (appointed as human capital — need to be regarded as a very precious prime minister in August and then tapped as acting pres- asset. Clearly, this would dictate much more attention to ident at year’s end). It is tempting to conclude that the the health of the population. (Russia’s rampant alco- renewed emphasis on Siberian development is simply a holism problem is a major reason for the high death rates reflection of Putin’s policy preferences. There is, how- among men.) Also, human capital needs to be located ever, a more fundamental factor, one suggested by geographically where it can be most productive. Figure 1. Misallocation is costly. During the 1990s Mobility should be facilitated to the greatest extent pos- Russia simply could not afford to keep pumping money sible. But instead of becoming more mobile, Russians into the east. People therefore moved away and less have become less so. Each year only one-third or one- housing was built. This also implies that to the extent fourth as many Russians move to a new city as do that mistakes of the Soviet past were corrected in the Americans or Canadians, and the rate of internal migra- 1990s, it may not have been because the old policies tion has declined by nearly 40 percent since 1992. In an were recognized as wrong. It was only because the gov- economy that needs much more dynamism, this is not a ernment could not afford to continue them. Since the good sign. 1999 oil boom, Russia again has had the physical and Unfortunately, to the extent that mobility is encour- financial resources to misallocate. And of course, the aged in Russia today, it is in the wrong direction. If peo- space is still there. This time around, though, the really ple are valuable, then moving more people to the east — scarce factor is labor — people. as the government wants — is particularly wasteful. Instead, the goal ought to be to use as few people as pos- People sible to develop the resources of Siberia. The strong The main parameters of Russia’s demographic crisis new policy statements by Russia’s leadership to “repop- are well-known. The population is shrinking rapidly. On ulate the East” are alarming. Such statements typically average, 840,000 more Russians have died than were include phrases such as: “Less than 5 percent of Russia’s born each year since 1993. See Figure 4 (p. 38). population lives in the region, which occupies 36 percent There are only three ways to correct this: (1) increase of the country’s territory.” In fact, if one makes an inter- births; (2) decrease deaths; (3) increase net immigration. national comparison, one sees that Siberia and the The Russian government is aware of all three approach- Russian Far East are not underpopulated. Rather, they es, but has focused its policies on the first and third are vastly overpopulated. options. However, the second option is actually the most Compare East Siberia and the Russian Far East with important for Russia. Why? Because it is most directly Alaska in terms of their relative shares of population and concerned with the quality of the country’s human capi- territory for Russia and the United States. If Alaska had

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been populated according to the Siberia and its Russians with whom they can Soviet model, it would not have trade. 650,000 residents, as it actually has resources need to today, but nine million! Conversely, What to Do? if East Siberia and the Russian Far be developed as How then might one formulate a East had followed the American sensible policy for Russia’s future pattern, they would have barely one efficiently as possible. development that adequately man- million residents combined instead ages its resources, its space and its of their current 15 million. people? This is a broad and com- Similarly erroneous is the argument that because plex question. But the general principle is clear. Siberia Russia’s East is so thinly populated and China’s neigh- and its resources need to be developed as efficiently as boring regions are densely populated, Russia risks being possible; e.g., to produce the greatest amount of oil, gas overrun by the Chinese. All evidence says that the nat- and other resources with the least possible financial and ural tendency is for economic activity to concentrate, human costs. not disperse. People are not like a fluid or a gas: they This is not the way things work today. In Russia’s cur- do not flow to fill a vacuum. The Chinese immigrants rent political economy, companies in the resource sec- in Russia — who, in general, are far fewer than some of tors are expected, even compelled, to keep costs high. the alarmist estimates — follow the laws of economics, High costs mean more orders for local industries and, in not physics. They are not attracted to empty spaces in turn, more jobs. Even private companies have to play Siberia. They are attracted to cities where they find this game because they do not have secure property

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rights. Their property rights are West Siberia has huge burden of extra cold and distance, conditional on good relations with costs now and for years to come will federal and regional political offi- amounts of oil that have be higher in East Siberia than in cials. Companies “invest” in good West Siberia. Then, one needs to relations by meeting the informal yet to be developed; factor in the massive expense of demands of officials to spend money building from scratch new infra- locally. Not only Russian compa- it is premature to shift structure for production, transport nies, but foreign companies as well, and settlement in the virtually un- are expected to follow this model. investment from there touched east. Another factor that is going to A further advantage of West drive up costs is the attempt to move to the east. Siberia is that it is more conducive the focus of oil and gas production to a pluralist, competitive — and away from West Siberia to new therefore more cost-efficient — regions of East Siberia. West Siberia has huge amounts model of resource development. Because the basic of oil that have yet to be developed. It is premature to infrastructure is already in place, West Siberia can shift investment from there to the east. Owing to the accommodate a greater number of small operators in addition to the big companies. Small operators are suited for risk-taking and innovation. (Significantly, the U.S. has over 20,000 operating companies in its oil industry, and Canada has several thousand. Russia — which produces nearly twice as much crude oil as the U.S. — has only 150.) Development in East Siberia and the Russian Far East, in contrast, would require truly large-scale investments, big operators and heavy state involvement. To sum up: the Siberian challenge includes within it the challenges of managing resources and people. Russia needs to achieve efficient, clean and humane development of the resources located on this vast territory. “Efficient” means to determine and implement an optimal current depletion rate and an optimal rate Figure 4 of investment for expanding the resource base for sustainable future growth. “Clean” entails policies that protect the sensitive environment of Siberia and the Far East. “Humane” requires decent treatment of people, Russia’s most precious asset. Those who wish to relocate to the west — whether now or later, when they retire — must be encouraged and assisted in doing so. Those — at least those of working age — who choose to remain or those who may move there need to be sure that Siberia is the place where they can be most productive. And, in return for their truly productive contributions, they deserve to be adequately compen- sated. The three challenges of space, resources and people interact. They must be addressed at the same time and Figure 5 with recognition of their interdependence.

38 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 F OCUS ON R USSIA

RUSSIA CONFRONTS RADICAL ISLAM Ben Fishman

COMING TO TERMS WITH ITS MUSLIM MINORITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGER AND MORE DIFFICULT PROBLEM FOR THE KREMLIN IN THE FUTURE.

BY DMITRY GORENBURG

n August 1998, soldiers from Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs (known as the MVD) killed a group of six Muslim radicals hiding on the outskirts of Nalchik, the capital of the Russian republic of Kabardino- Balkaria. At the hideout, investigators found plans for the establishment of an Islamic state in the region. Several days after this Iincident, unknown attackers fired shots at the MVD building in Nalchik. In response, the MVD conducted a regionwide manhunt, including searches of several mosques. As if going out of their way to offend religious Muslims’

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sensibilities, the government agents gratuitously spat A Growing Threat and swore in the sanctuaries and beat innocent Estimates of the number of Muslims living in Russia bystanders who had been engaged in prayer. Many vary widely — from 6 million to 20 million, depending Muslims were detained and beaten further while in on whether one counts only people who consider them- custody. selves to be observant believers in Islam, or whether The public reaction was exactly as might have been one includes all members of “traditionally Muslim” eth- expected. Residents of the North Caucasus republic nic groups. By most estimates, self-identified Muslims condemned the government for attacking Islam. In account for at least 10 percent of the country’s total pop- addition, a number of radical Muslim leaders, who had ulation of about 143 million. Looking at population previously espoused peaceful methods and focused on size, however, underestimates their demographic and proselytizing, went underground and began establish- political influence. Ethnic Muslims are growing in ing connections with Chechen Muslim extremists. number even as Russia’s total population shrinks. They The turn to radicalism and violence took several are also geographically concentrated — in large cities, years to bear fruit, but the results have been tragic. In the Volga region and, most significantly, the North Cau- October 2005, a group of between 100 and 300 fighters casus, a region that in recent years has been wracked by simultaneously attacked the Nalchik city airport, sever- violence. al prisons and police stations, and the headquarters of Muslims have lived within Russian borders for cen- the MVD, the Federal Security Service and the riot turies, and despite persecution they continued to practice police. The fighting lasted most of a day and resulted their religion under Soviet rule. Nevertheless, the end of in (depending on the source) between 40 and 140 restrictions on religious practice that came with the fall of deaths among civilians and members of the Russian communism in 1991 led to an Islamic revival in Russia. It security services. Both the radical Islamists who began gradually, but gathered steam in the late 1990s. claimed responsibility for the assault and the Russian The total number of mosques in the country has government agreed that approximately two-thirds of increased from 300 in 1991 and 4,000 in 2001 to over the assailants were locals, while the rest came from 8,000 today. Some analysts believe that within 10 years, Chechnya. that number will increase to 15,000. This attack, together with the siege by Chechen Complicating the matter are geographic, ethnic and guerrillas of a school in Beslan in the neighboring doctrinal divisions that prevent Russian Muslims from republic of North Ossetia the previous year, made clear presenting a unified front on most issues. First, Muslims that the violent conflict in the Caucasus has grown indigenous to Russia are distinct from those who migrat- beyond its beginnings in the struggle over Chechen ed to the country from Central Asia and Azerbaijan since independence: it is rapidly spreading throughout the the collapse of the Soviet Union. Second, significant dif- region, even as the conflict has become predominantly ferences in practice and belief distinguish Muslims in the religious in nature. The attack also signaled that, in North Caucasus from those who live in the Volga region attempting to deal with Russia’s Muslim minority, the and Siberia. Third, ethnic divisions occur within these government in Moscow faces a challenge likely to broad regional groups. Muslims from Volga and Siberia, become larger and more difficult in the future. for example, include Bashkirs, Volga Tatars and Siberian Tatars. North Caucasian Muslims are even more ethni- Dmitry Gorenburg, a research associate at the Davis cally diverse, including Chechens, Ingush, Avars, Dar- Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard gins, Kumyks, Lezgins, Circassians, Karachai and Bal- University, is executive director of the American Associa- kars. Each of these groups has different traditions of tion for the Advancement of Slavic Studies. He is the Islamic practice. author of Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Finally, and perhaps most importantly, although the Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003). This vast majority of Russia’s Muslims are Sunni, doctrinal dif- article is reprinted with permission from Current History ferences divide the adherents of traditional Islam (includ- (www.currenthistory.com), Vol. 105, No. 693, October ing Sufism) from various types of reform and political 2006. ©2007, Current History, Inc. movements. The latter range from moderate and mod-

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ernizing “Euro-Islam” to the anti-Sufi New Islamic egory become alienated and shift to the first. In this way, Movement and the radical Salafis who support the estab- government policies have actually increased the number lishment of a fundamentalist Islamic state in areas where of supporters of radical Islam and the likelihood of reli- Muslims live. gious violence within Russia. The challenge for the Russian government is to work Meanwhile, the authorities have failed to focus on the with these different strands of belief and practice to actual causes of the spread of radical Islam. These are maintain (or in some cases restore) peace and economic based in the poor economic situation in Muslim regions development in Russia’s Muslim regions. Unfortunately, — especially high rates of unemployment among young the policies undertaken by both Moscow and regional men — combined with pervasive corruption and abuse of governments are only making an already volatile situation political power, which have led many to lose faith in their worse, especially in the North Caucasus. These govern- leaders and in the secular society these leaders are seen ments often use the specter of radical Islam (universally to represent. Islam seems the only alternative that can equated with so-called Wahhabism in Russia) as an combat corruption and abuse by building a righteous excuse to pursue centralizing and authoritarian policies. society based on faith. Furthermore, the authorities have proved themselves It is in this environment that Russian leaders face the unable to distinguish radicals bent on using violent means difficult task of coming to terms with the Muslim popu- to overthrow the existing political order from pious lation. Today, the potential for violence from the radical Muslims who simply wish to observe the tenets of their minority of Russia’s Muslims threatens not only the faith but have no political agenda. As a result of official inhabitants of areas that might be subject to terrorist abuse and overreaction, many Muslims in the second cat- attacks, but also the security of Russia’s political elites,

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APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 41 F OCUS

both in the North Caucasus and in the country as a vations such as collective farming in ways that often whole. While Vladimir Putin benefited from popular strengthened Islam rather than weakening it. The result reaction to Islamist terrorism in the run-up to his becom- was that even local Communist Party functionaries in ing president, the continuing spread of violence to areas Dagestan and Chechnya participated in collective prayer outside the Caucasus may lead Russian voters to turn to and tithed regularly. Spiritual leaders continued to exert more nationalist alternatives, thus threatening the cur- considerable influence over local communities in the rent political elite’s hold on power. North Caucasus. The potential for Islamist violence also threatens The end of communism brought about a religious Russia’s continued economic growth, which in the long revival throughout the former Soviet Union, and Russian run will need to diversify away from the current focus on Islam benefited. There was a sizable growth both in the extracting energy resources. Diversification will require number of people professing to practice Islam and in foreign investment to develop Russia’s manufacturing public expressions of piety. Mosques quickly opened in base — investment that may be scared away by the virtually every Muslim village — not just in the North prospect of political instability and conflict. Caucasus but also in the Volga region and in parts of Siberia inhabited by Tatars, Kazakhs and Bashkirs. In Muslims and Communists cities that had previously been limited to one large Traditional Islam in Russia is organized around mosque each, smaller mosques began to open in every Muslim “spiritual directorates,” which have existed in one neighborhood. Many of these mosques were financed by form or another since the eighteenth century. Under foreign money, much of which came from private foun- Soviet rule, two directorates controlled Muslim affairs in dations in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. Russia proper. The first, based in Dagestan, was responsible for the North Caucasus, while the second, based in Enter the Salafis Bashkortostan, covered the rest of Russia. During the Given a sudden increase in demand for clerics and a early part of its history, the Soviet government sought to lack of Islamic educational facilities in the region, the eliminate Islamic practice and belief throughout its terri- Arab-run foundations also often sent clerics to run the tory. Mosques were closed or destroyed, religious figures new mosques. Many of these sought to eliminate local were killed or imprisoned, and the secret police infiltrat- practices and innovations by preaching the puritanical ed the spiritual directorates. This is not to say that Islam Salafi Islam most commonly practiced in Saudi Arabia. was singled out for repression; much the same fate befell (In the West, Salafi Islam is commonly referred to as the Russian Orthodox Church and other religions. Wahhabism. Developed on the Arabian Peninsula in the Beginning in the 1950s, official attitudes toward reli- 18th century by Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab, it is gion in general and Islam in particular liberalized some- fundamentalist in the sense that it rejects all modifica- what. Islam was now tolerated and a few mosques were tions to Islamic practice after the time of the prophet. reopened. An implicit compact emerged, allowing While some Salafis embrace violence as a means of Muslim believers to practice their religion as long as they restoring proper Islamic practice and fighting unbeliev- did not question communist rule or attempt to impose ers, most are not violent.) Islamic beliefs on others in their community. Most of the Salafi practices appeared excessively strict and there- Russian Federation, however, underwent a relatively fore radical to most Russian Muslims, but they gained rapid secularization as young people abandoned Islamic popularity among young people who distrusted local practices and beliefs in favor of the prevalent Soviet cul- Muslim leaders for their lack of Islamic education and ture. Secularization was dominant in urban areas, but by their possible ties to Russian security services. the 1980s had also made significant inroads into rural, The local leaders in turn felt threatened by the foreign traditionally Muslim communities in regions such as clerics and, by highlighting the danger of the spread of Tatarstan and Siberia. Islamic radicalism, succeeded in having most of them The relatively isolated and mountainous parts of the expelled by the late 1990s. Nevertheless, Salafi Islam has North Caucasus were the exception to this trend. Here, continued to spread throughout Russia’s Muslim traditional Muslim practices combined with Soviet inno- republics, and particularly in the North Caucasus.

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Office of the Geographer and Global Issues, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Dept. of State.

Russian leaders have come to brand all followers of Salafi ment Muslim leaders drew the derision of younger pious Islam, regardless of their political views, as radical Muslims, especially those who were educated in Salafi Wahhabis who seek to create Islamic rule. Authorities schools, either within Russia or (increasingly) in the believe they are the main source of religiously in- Middle East. Many of these students came to believe spired violence in the North Caucasus and Russia as a that Salafism constitutes a purer form of Islam and reject- whole. ed the traditional Islamic practices of the region. The rise of Salafi Islam was spurred in part by the collapse of the already limited system of Islamic education The Arc of Instability in Russia. Under Soviet rule, Muslim education was per- Although Salafi Muslims are found throughout the mitted only in the Bukhara Medrese and the Tashkent Russian Federation, the majority of the movement’s Islamic University, both of which were located in Russian followers live in the North Caucasus. It is there- Uzbekistan and ceased to function as educational centers fore not surprising that Moscow’s relationship with the for Russian Muslims once the Soviet Union collapsed. Muslim population has been dominated for the past sev- Yet, at the same time, the number of Muslim religious eral years by the North Caucasus. This has been increas- communities that needed educated clerics and religious ingly the case since the start of the first Chechen War in schoolteachers mushroomed. The initial result was the 1994. For several years, the Russian government was promotion of numerous poorly educated Muslims to able to contain this brutal conflict mostly within leadership positions in local mosques and even at the Chechnya, though occasional terrorist attacks occurred regional level. This was followed by the proliferation of outside the republic. Over time, however, the conflict Muslim educational institutions with questionable cre- has shifted in nature and scope, especially during the sec- dentials and few standards. ond Chechen War. The low level of religious education among establish- That war began in 1999 with an invasion of Dagestan

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by groups that included both Chechens and Dagestanis. independent Chechen republic, in March 2005, has shift- They proclaimed as their goal the creation of an Islamic ed the balance of forces within the armed separatist state throughout the North Caucasus. The Russian gov- movement in the North Caucasus in favor of those who ernment defeated the incursion and then used it as a pre- seek to establish an Islamic state throughout the region. text to launch a new invasion of Chechnya. Nevertheless, Even more worrisome for Moscow is the spread of it showed that what began as an ethno-nationalist strug- violent Islamist movements into the western areas of the gle for Chechen independence had become a broader Caucasus. As recently as three years ago, major violence Islamist struggle under the influence of the international was confined to Chechnya and Dagestan. Since then, it radical Islamist community, which had sent money and has spread throughout the region, with major attacks in men to help the fight. This trend had already become Nazran, Ingushetia, in June 2004; in Beslan, North prominent during the period between the two wars, Ossetia, in September 2004; and Nalchik, Kabardino- when some Chechen leaders attempted to implement Balkaria, in October 2005. Although Chechen terrorist Islamic law in the region. attacks occurred outside the republic as early as 1995, The current situation in Chechnya is gradually begin- these recent attacks have been carried out not by ning to normalize. The war itself has turned into isolated Chechen infiltrators mainly, but by fighters from the skirmishes, and some of the leading Chechen terrorists in towns and regions where the attacks took place. This cru- recent months have been killed (including Shamil cial change shows that the character of the fighting has Basayev, the head of the radical Islamic wing of the evolved, with Chechen radicals now primarily serving a nationalist movement since the mid-1990s). The Russian coordinating role while locals familiar with a particular government has been relatively successful at turning over location carry out the actual attacks. administration of the region to its local Chechen allies, who have even undertaken some physical reconstruction Revolt of the Hopeless in the capital city of Grozny. Moscow blames the spread of violent Islamic radicals The region now is controlled by Prime Minister throughout the North Caucasus on foreign influences in Ramzan Kadyrov, who runs his own private army with a the region. But the role of mercenaries and ideologues reputation for extreme brutality and who is reported to from the Muslim world is very much secondary to have personally participated in the torture of civilians. domestic factors in explaining the rise of violent Kadyrov is widely expected to become the Chechen Islamism. President Putin’s North Caucasus policy has, if republic’s president sometime after he turns 30, the anything, hastened the spread of Islamic radicalism in the required age to hold the office, in October 2006 [Kadyrov region. Federal and local governments have increasingly took office on March 2. — Eds]. In the meantime, he has come to see all religious Muslims as potential radical introduced aspects of Islamic law, including banning Islamists and have increasingly begun to suppress Islam alcohol and requiring women to wear headscarves. He as a whole. Youth who studied Islam in the Middle East has also spoken in favor of legalizing polygamy in the and practice the religion peacefully, but in ways that are republic. Kadyrov is the son of Akhmat Kadyrov, the for- different from local tradition, are treated with suspicion mer president and chief mufti of Chechnya, who switch- and sometimes arrested and beaten. Such actions main- ed from the rebel side to supporting Moscow and was ly serve to further radicalize pious Muslims, some of assassinated in 2004. Although Kadyrov’s rule has been whom then turn to violence. repressive, the level of violence directed at civilians in the The republic of Kabardino-Balkaria is instructive in region has declined significantly since he has been in this regard. Its government has closed most local office as the effectiveness of the separatist forces has mosques. In 2004 the republic government issued an diminished over time. order allowing Muslims to attend services only on Fridays While violence has been declining within Chechnya, and then only for 40 minutes. Worshippers suspected of however, it has been spreading to other parts of the sympathizing with radical Islamists have been dragged Caucasus. And the violence in these regions is explicitly out of mosques, beaten and had crosses shaved into their linked to efforts to spread radical Islam. The killing of hair. These kinds of actions have only served to increase Aslan Maskhadov, the secular nationalist president of the the popularity of radical Islamic organizations, since tra-

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ditional Muslim groups have not dared to speak out representatives of the federal government. Massive against the authorities’ repressive measures. corruption has virtually eliminated outside investment Part of the problem is the elimination of gubernatori- in the region, and is in the process of destroying the al elections. This has allowed Putin to replace respected region’s political institutions. local politicians — such as the former president of The common view among the population is that pow- Ingushetia, Ruslan Aushev, who had taken measures to erful clans have monopolized the region’s political and eco- ensure stability by balancing various local interests — nomic resources, and that representatives of these clans with representatives of the security services who do not exploit the local population, steal resources sent by the fed- know the situation on the ground and corrupt cronies eral government, and use their political power to repress who are not interested in maintaining a balance among anyone who tries to change the situation through political local interests. or legal channels. Since radical Islam promises that under Widespread corruption and poverty in the region Islamic rule theft and corruption will not be tolerated, also have contributed to the popularity of radical Islam. many unemployed young men have turned to it as an alter- Unemployment rates throughout the Caucasus hover native to a hopeless existence. around 50 percent, while wages are only two-thirds the Russian average. Areas with large numbers of Muslims The Rise of Racism rank at the bottom of Russia’s regions in terms of most One factor leading toward the radicalization of measures of standards of living. What is more, much of Russia’s Muslims beyond the Caucasus is the prevalence the population has come to blame this poverty on the of daily discrimination in most large Russian cities against corruption of local government officials as well as local anyone who does not look Slavic. Police, ostensibly on

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the lookout for migrants who are Discrimination and together into a single group that is not registered to live in their town, seen as radical or at least prone to are constantly asking dark-skinned violence against Muslims sympathize with radicals in Chech- people for identification. Slavic or nya. other light-skinned migrants gener- in Russia’s major cities The effect of this form of racism ally avoid this harassment, while on Russia’s Muslims is hard to gauge even longtime residents of cities are not caused by definitively. Most migrants are too such as Moscow or St. Petersburg, busy trying to support themselves if they are ethnically Azeri or anti-Muslim sentiment, and feel too vulnerable to retribu- Chechen, are vulnerable. At the tion to get involved in any kind of same time, the local media in these per se. political resistance to the racism and cities frequently report about discrimination that they suffer. migrants from Central Asia and the Muslims who have lived in cities for Caucasus cheating customers in markets, being involved a long time may feel little sympathy for the recent in crime and generally causing trouble. Police use the vul- migrants, especially since the longtime city-dwellers are nerability of unregistered migrants to blackmail market likely to belong to different ethnic groups and are often traders and collect bribes. quite Russified culturally and linguistically. There may be An anti-immigrant mood in much of urban Russia has occasional cases of local Muslim youth fighting back led to a rapid rise in the number of violent attacks against against skinhead gangs, but these are not likely to change Muslims (and non-whites in general) over the past sever- the general situation, and may serve only to harden the al years. Although some of these attacks are perpetrated attitudes of the rest of the population against the migrants. by individual criminals looking for easy targets for rob- bery, most are carried out by gangs of Russian skinheads The Future of Russia’s Muslims who deliberately target non-whites as part of a campaign Despite the fears of Russia’s demographic doomsayers, of “racial cleansing” to rid the cities of people they con- Russia will remain a predominantly Slavic country for at sider undesirable. least the next century. Even with their faster population Discrimination and violence against Muslims in growth rates, Muslims are likely to remain less than 20 Russia’s major cities are not caused by anti-Muslim senti- percent of Russia’s total population. Nevertheless, they ment, per se. They result rather from fears among locals could potentially play a very significant role in Russian of being swamped by culturally dissimilar migrants and, in political life. some cases, racist attitudes against darker-skinned people. Given the increase in anti-Muslim and racist attitudes Fears of immigrants largely stem from the influx of among Russia’s Slavic population, the failure of Russia’s migrants from the Caucasus, Central Asia and East Asia leadership to solve its radical Islam problem may lead to over the 15 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. an increase in support for more nationalist alternatives. These migrants come to Moscow and other cities mainly This trend could already be seen in the unexpectedly for economic reasons, though some are seeking to escape strong showing of the Rodina Party in the 2003 State conflicts in their homelands. Duma elections. The nationalist, xenophobic trend will Given the relatively low birth rates and high death continue to grow stronger if politicians in Moscow fail to rates among ethnic Russians, some people worry that the distinguish between dangerous and potentially violent Russian Federation’s demographic balance will increas- radicals, and pious Muslims who are not presently radi- ingly shift toward non-Russians and especially Muslims, calized but could turn to violence because of discrimina- who are feared because they are seen to have different tion and abuse by local officials and police. cultural values from the Slavic majority. The Chechen The Russian government has used the specter of war, and especially the occasional terrorist acts carried out Islamic radicalism to maintain its popularity and to justify by Chechen rebels in Moscow and elsewhere, have con- its continuing war against Chechen rebels. At the same tributed to a hostile attitude toward people from the time, the government has made efforts to use Russia’s Caucasus and other non-Slavs. These are often lumped Muslim population to increase ties with the larger Muslim

46 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 F OCUS

world — including becoming an observer at the years after the end of communism, as ethno-nationalist Organization of the Islamic Conference in 2005, the most movements were the primary challengers to Russian important international organization of Muslim states. rule. And ethnic identity will continue to play an impor- Nevertheless, sharp cultural, ethnic and religious divi- tant role in disagreements within Russia’s Muslim com- sions within the Muslim community have limited the munity. Tensions between Bashkirs and Tatars over the political influence of Russian Muslims, and will continue status of several hundred thousand Tatars living in to do so for the foreseeable future. Since the start of Bashkortostan will divide the Volga Muslims, while Soviet efforts at modernization in the 1920s, Russia’s Balkars and Cherkess in the Caucasus will continue to Muslims have been divided between city-dwellers and vil- agitate for the formation of their own ethnic regions, lagers. Urban Muslims look down on their rural cousins separate from the larger Kabardin and Karachai com- as uncultured and tradition-bound, while rural Muslims munities with which they are now joined. Ongoing eth- see urbanites as having abandoned the ways of their com- nic tensions in Dagestan among Dargins, Avars and munity in favor of Russian culture. As modernization and Kumyks may become more severe now that Avars con- urbanization have continued and more people have trol all of the region’s political institutions. There is a fur- moved from the villages to urban areas, recent migrants to ther division between members of these indigenous eth- the cities have come to the forefront of efforts to maintain nic groups and the Muslim migrants from Central Asia traditional cultural and religious values. These migrants and Azerbaijan, who live in the larger Russian cities and are particularly likely to turn to radical Islam, especially if work primarily as traders. they encounter difficulties in adapting to city life. The dominance of ethnic divisions over Muslim unity Ethnic divisions played an important role in the early has been one of the main sources of grievance among

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 47 F OCUS

Russia’s growing population of radical and reformist potentially violent, radical Islam in the North Caucasus Muslims. These groups, some but not all of which sup- and beyond without alienating the rest of Russia’s port the use of violence, have been preaching that eth- Muslim population. So far, as exemplified by its abu- nic divisions within the Muslim community may be sive response to provocations in places like Nalchik, the overcome by purifying Muslim practice and belief government has not done a very good job of this. There according to the tenets of Salafism. Followers of this is still time, however, for Russian policymakers to come doctrine in Russia have developed far more extensive to understand that not all pious Muslims are potential cooperation across ethnic lines than have followers of violent radicals. traditional Islam. But at the same time, they have The majority of Russia’s religious Muslims oppose brought about a new and potentially even more serious radical Islam and would gladly work with the govern- split within the Muslim community — between those ment to reduce its influence. Such an alliance could be who practice the new imported doctrine and those who cemented if the Russian leadership began to treat the follow the more spiritual and ritual-focused Muslim Muslim population with respect, appointed regional practices traditional to the region. (These practices are leaders who have the trust of the local population and based on Sufism in the North Caucasus and on acted to reduce the corruption that has virtually Jadidism, a reformist Muslim doctrine developed in the destroyed the economy of much of the North late 19th century, in the Volga region.) Caucasus. Given the trends in Russian policies toward The diversity of Russia’s Muslims presents both a Muslims under Putin, this is unlikely to happen in the challenge and an opportunity for Moscow. The short term, but it may be possible under new leader- Kremlin needs to work carefully to limit the spread of ship after 2008. Executive Lodging Alternatives Interim Accommodations for Corporate and Government Markets Apartments, Townhouses & Single Family Homes “FOR THE EXECUTIVE ON THE MOVE” [email protected] Locations throughout Northern Virginia and D.C. Units fully furnished, equipped and accessorized Many “Walk to Metro” locations Pet Friendly 5105-L Backlick Road, Annandale, Virginia Tel: (703) 354-4070 Fax: (703) 642-3619

48 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 SAVING GLOBALIZATION FROM ITSELF

THERE ARE CONCRETE WAYS TO COUNTER THE FEARS OF CHANGE AND INCREASING INEQUALITY THAT ARE FUELING THE CURRENT BACKLASH AGAINST TRADE LIBERALIZATION.

BY ERIC TRACHTENBERG

he Doha Round and the economic lib- whelmingly support free trade and globalization, little atten- eralization it symbolizes are under tion has been given to the high human costs created by the increasing attack, even though eco- “creative destruction” of people’s lives. As Gene Sperling, nomic data show that cross-border former economic adviser to President Bill Clinton, ruefully trade boosts incomes worldwide, par- observes, “While the benefits of open trade are broadly ticularly in developing countries. shared, the costs are heavily concentrated.” Instead of being seen as an opportunity To move forward with the Doha Round and economic for economic growth, trade liberalization is often portrayed liberalization generally, these very real concerns must be Tas an agent of imperialism in developing countries and a dri- addressed, and a new, more comprehensive view of the ver of the “race to the bottom” in the rich countries. globalization process embraced. This is evident in the rising protectionist pressures in the rich countries and increasing trade skepticism from devel- Free Trade Helps Growth oping countries. In France and Japan, trade is seen as a Systematic studies of economic performance since the threat to the rural way of life. In Latin America, the late 1940s show a strong relationship between economic “Washington Consensus” that includes open markets is openness and growth. For example, a study of 117 countries under attack in Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina. And in by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner found that developing the United States, longstanding support for open trade has countries with open economies grew at 4.5 percent per year been undermined by complaints about “unfair” policies by during the 1970s and 1980s, compared with 0.7 percent in China, concerns about outsourcing, and the fear of “hollow- closed economies. In a 1998 study, the Organization for ing out” and layoffs. Economic Cooperation and Development concluded that Although economic theory and recent history over- nations relatively open to trade grew twice as fast as those closed to it. A 2004 World Bank study by David Dollar Eric Trachtenberg joined the Foreign Agricultural Service as showed that trade raised 375 million people out of extreme a Civil Service employee in 1995, becoming a Foreign poverty over 20 years. Studies by McKinsey & Company Service officer in 1997. He has served in Taipei and Moscow, and the OECD estimate that full liberalization could boost and as a U.S. delegate on the World Trade Organization global welfare by nearly $300 billion annually by 2015 and accession working parties for Russia, Jordan and Saudi add almost a billion new customers to the global market. Arabia. He is currently a special assistant to the FAS deputy For a regional perspective, consider the experience of administrator. The views expressed in this article are solely East Asia. In Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and those of the author and do not reflect the official positions of Singapore, the gains in wealth have been spectacular. The the Foreign Agricultural Service or the U.S. Department of vast majority of families in the region have climbed from Agriculture. poverty 30 years ago into the middle class.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 49 The case of China is particularly tinue to weaken, these firms ask for illustrative. Since the country’s eco- ever-higher levels of protection and nomic opening in the late 1970s “While the benefits of support. under former President Deng Xiao- This vicious cycle can impede pos- ping, its coastal regions have been open trade are broadly itive change. In the United States, transformed. Transport rapidly chang- major U.S. airlines continue to rack ed from bicycles to motorcycles and, shared, the costs are up losses and require bankruptcy pro- increasingly, cars. Since 1976, more tection despite subsidies and repeated the 300 million Chinese have been heavily concentrated.” bailouts. Japan’s economy stagnated lifted out of poverty. In contrast, during the 1990s mostly because of those regions of China left behind are — Gene Sperling, former the existence of “zombie” companies. still relatively unconnected to the economic adviser to The zombies never became competi- world economy. Similarly, people in tive but continued to suck resources President Bill Clinton the least globalized countries also do out of the system, preventing the not live very well. Life in places such growth of new and more competitive as Myanmar, North Korea and sub- firms. Keeping an open economy also Saharan Africa is rarely envied else- means resisting the temptation to where. other natural resource costs. Trade reward bad management. Trade does not only benefit devel- not only increases incomes but it ben- Closed economies lose flexibility oping countries. A 2005 study by efits ordinary people by increasing the when they are not allowed to allocate Institute of International Economics real value of their wages. capital and labor freely in order to economist Gary Hufbauer found that prevent job losses. Although being 50 years of globalization made the Dangers of Protectionism laid off is extremely traumatic, pre- United States richer by $1 trillion per If open trade has clear benefits, venting it by fiat also has serious con- year, measured in 2003 dollars. This protectionism has real dangers. sequences: If a company cannot shed is equivalent to $9,000 of wealth add- When a company is shielded from labor during downturns, it will be very ed per year for the average U.S. competition, it generally becomes reluctant to hire in the future. Even household. Although globalization inefficient, high-cost and inattentive worse, to avoid the rules, companies costs $50 billion in adjustment ex- to quality and service. Over time, a will either resort to informal labor, penses in the United States, that closed economy encourages these bad temporary contracts or other expedi- charge is far outweighed by the bene- practices that eventually impede com- encies — all of which have significant fits. petitiveness in the protected sector — costs. Informality is the worst re- These gains from trade for both or across an entire economy. Through sponse, because it is highly inefficient, rich and developing countries are their inferior performance, protected sharply reduces tax revenue and often most abundant when economies are firms essentially levy a tax on both results in substandard or even unsafe both export-oriented and allow industry and consumers to stay in products. For workers, the results are imports. When domestic firms face business. Anyone who has tried to disastrous: low job security, no pen- competition, they are forced to do obtain a phone line from an unre- sion protection and bad working con- better. After the mid-1970s, GM, sponsive state phone monopoly or has ditions. To avoid regulation, firms Chrysler and Ford were compelled to driven an Indian or Russian car is may also stay uneconomically small or improve because of competition from already familiar with the results of may increase use of capital to avoid Honda and Toyota. The Big Three uncompetitive markets. hiring. could no longer afford to sell gas-guz- Protectionism also prevents com- Flexibility makes a big difference. zling, poorly designed, unreliable cars panies and economies from using cap- Within the European Union, coun- for high prices. If U.S automakers ital and labor efficiently. As protected tries with more flexible labor markets, failed to improve, people would buy a firms grow less capable, they usually such as the United Kingdom, the Civic or Corolla. In this way, open go to the government for aid. This Netherlands and Sweden, have much trade improves quality while keeping almost always makes things worse. If lower unemployment rates than those prices and inflation down. Most granted, subsidies usually allow firms that don’t (e.g., France, Italy and recently, Chinese exports to the to continue the same bad business Spain). Since joblessness almost United States have helped to slow practices that made them noncom- always hits the disadvantaged first, it is inflation created by rising energy and petitive in the first place. As they con- not surprising that the worst unrest in

50 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 Western Europe came from immi- change can mean to individuals, espe- grant groups in France, where youth cially if they lack a clearly defined way unemployment is over 20 percent. To move forward with to benefit from it. Without some Guaranteed jobs for some mean mass assurances about their future employ- unemployment for others. the Doha Round, and ment and incomes, people will rightly Protectionism has another nega- ask what’s in it for them as the process tive effect. It encourages companies economic liberalization moves forward. And unless support- to use the political system to extract ers of globalization have an answer, rents from society for themselves. generally, calls for they will be vulnerable to attack. Increasing the ability of governments A second is that the real costs of to protect markets can drive corrup- a new, more change are borne by individuals. tion deeper when firms manipulate Although entire economies may ben- policy instead of improving their mar- comprehensive view efit from trade and openness, and ketplace performance. This makes most individuals are generally better markets even less transparent, in- of globalization. off, some people will lose out. When creases prices, drives subsidies higher they lose their jobs, watch their pen- and usually worsens customer service. sions become insolvent, face a salary cut or witness their community falling Fear and Protectionism apart because of competition, they If protectionism is so counterpro- utable in so many quarters? blame globalization and see it as fuel- ductive, why is it so popular? How is Starting most visibly with the ing a race to the bottom. After all, for it possible for politicians from Hugo protests at the 1999 WTO ministerial them, life really is getting worse. Chavez to Jose Bové to win popular in Seattle, anti-globalization has be- A third concern is that globaliza- acclaim by attacking trade and global- come increasingly popular for several tion is fueling inequality and causing a ization? Why is open trade so disrep- reasons. One is the fear of what loss of opportunity. Although trade

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 51 has benefited the overall economy by a job that then quickly becomes out- increasing incomes and decreasing dated. prices, people see many of the bene- Trade liberalization is fits going to the well-educated or well- Four Models connected — instead of them. The often portrayed as an On many political issues, the right- biggest winners are often graduates of left continuum has been slowly fading elite universities, while the losers are agent of imperialism in away in favor of more multidimen- often industrial workers. The winners sional approaches. In the economics go to Davos while the losers lose their developing countries field, two dimensions come to mind: jobs at General Motors. the strength of the safety net and Combine fears of change, a per- and a driver of the openness to change. The safety net ceived race to the bottom and increas- refers to the government’s role in ing inequality, and a backlash against “race to the bottom” helping people cope with change. At globalization seems almost inevitable. one extreme, it does nothing. If you It also raises serious questions about in the rich countries. lose your job, it is completely your the purpose of trade and globaliza- problem. At the other extreme, the tion. If openness inevitably leads to a safety net is so strong that it creates a bigger economic pie at the cost of negative incentive to work. inequality, is it worth it? Richard The other dimension is openness Wilkinson in The Impact of Inequal- harder to switch jobs. Thirty years to change. A change-oriented econo- ity (New Press, 2005) points out that ago, a high school graduate could walk my welcomes trade, has flexible labor a society marked by high levels of into a well-paying factory job in many markets and is focused on being com- inequality is more prone to violence, developed countries; these days, even petitive. It generally levies low tariffs poorer public health and higher levels an auto-mechanic requires extensive on imported goods, welcomes foreign of depression. Highly unequal places technical education. Now if you want investment and ownership, pays low also seem more prone to political to be a mechanic in many places you subsidies, allows flexible labor mar- unrest and extremism, which can need an Automotive Service Excel- kets, and has few domestic monopo- undermine attempts at democratic lence certification before you will be lies or state-owned enterprises. Such government. considered. The ASE requires years economies are characterized by high of training and experience. Not export rates, deregulated capital mar- Costs of Change everyone can afford this. kets, a convertible currency and a The key problem with the tradi- Things are not easier for the edu- deregulated economy. Those systems tional arguments in favor of open cated. A master’s degree is required closed to change follow the opposite economies, trade and globalization is for many professions where a bache- policies. that they fail to accommodate the con- lor’s used to suffice — and specializa- Some countries such as France, cerns of those who stand to lose from tions within majors are rapidly be- Germany and Italy, are well-off but these trends. The damage is real: As coming the rule. It is not enough to resist change. They ameliorate the dis- jobs are destroyed, communities and be a biologist anymore; one must be a sent created by high unemployment families are severely affected. When very specific kind of microbiologist. through a generous welfare state. workers find their skills are obsolete, These changes have made it more dif- Although these governments are gen- the lack of an effective safety net in ficult and costly to change jobs. The erous, the lack of sound economic poli- many countries suddenly pushes fami- demand for increasingly expensive cies and high taxes are impediments to lies into poverty — or worse. Even qualifications threatens to transform long-term economic growth. Because when people don’t actually lose their the work force from a meritocracy of this system is expensive and relies on a jobs, the fear of it is pervasive. upward mobility to one of stratifica- weakening economy, it is not sustain- On top of this, it has become hard- tion, where those without means are able over the long run. er to change careers as the minimum left behind. The result can be a vi- By contrast, the United States is qualifications for quality jobs have cious circle: Increasing specialization open to trade but does little to assist increased, and barriers to entry for combined with an environment of workers in case they are laid off. new and displaced workers have rapid change compels people to Compared to what other nations allo- risen. Increasing professional licens- spend ever more time and resources cate for unemployment compensa- ing requirements have also made it to learn the skills required to perform tion, the U.S. is stingy. According to a

52 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 2006 McKinsey study, America only suffer both from bad economic policy view globalization in a new light. On spends 0.5 percent of annual GDP and great personal uncertainty for one hand, openness respects econom- compared to 0.9 in the U.K., 3.1 per- workers. These worst-case scenarios ic reality. Without these kinds of cent in Germany and 3.7 percent in are also usually marked by extremely sound policies, incomes will fall — a Denmark. Although there are some high levels of corruption and a depen- development that hurts the poor the programs in place (the most important dence on informal labor. hardest. being unemployment insurance), The final group of countries in- However, we also must consider most Americans are largely on their cludes the Netherlands and some of the social costs created by dynamic own when they lose their jobs. The the Nordic countries, such as Den- 21st-century capitalism. In order to result is a dynamic economic system mark. These countries are generally gain support for globalization, we that imposes heavy costs on individu- open to change (save for the Euro- need to help people prepare for the als. Because workers face increasing pean Union’s protectionist biases), but world of work and to cope with the barriers to entry and job transition, the generally support people during diffi- costs of change. Economic openness American approach has led to increas- cult times. These systems generally and targeted support are both critical ing inequality. Although the inherent reduce dependence by requiring peo- parts of what is known as the New dynamism of the economy will keep ple to be either working or looking for Globalization. some upward mobility available, in- it. This “flexicurity” approach encour- Social support policies should be creasing stratification is a threat. ages economic openness while sup- designed to widen opportunity and Russia and many developing coun- porting workers during transitions — aid people with transition in a chang- tries, such as those in sub-Saharan and encouraging them to work. ing workplace. At the same time, Africa, combine the worst features of globalized societies need to enhance both systems. They are relatively The New Globalization opportunities for the poor and sup- closed economically and also do little Looking at economic policy port their well-being and competitive- to help their people when their work through the twin lenses of openness ness in the workplace. The following lives are disrupted. Such societies and economic security allows us to policies could accomplish this.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 53 First and foremost, governments not bound for college. must make health care available to all Lifelong education is also vital. citizens. Not only does this allow peo- Gains from trade for The goal of the education system in ple to be more productive and economic terms is to enable as many increase their incomes, but it also both rich and developing people as possible to find the best jobs encourages the use of preventative they can. If people lose their posi- care, which saves both lives and dol- countries are most tions, they should have the means to lars. In addition, a healthy population be re-educated for the changing is not only morally desirable but it is abundant when workplace through a system of grants, an important competitive advantage subsidies and cost-sharing. Continu- because of lower absenteeism and economies are both ing education grants designed to higher productivity. Publicly support- increase the labor pool for those pro- ed health insurance would also relieve export-oriented and fessions facing labor shortages, such overburdened companies of crippling as health care and education, could be legacy costs, which would help firms allow imports. particularly helpful for workers and such as General Motors be more the overall economy. competitive. Because many of the best jobs only Second, governments must con- go to people who can afford to work in centrate on improving primary and low- or non-paying internships, stu- secondary education. In cases where lege without having to work their way dents should have access to loans or public or local schools are not per- through school (which can sharply other support during these training forming adequately, parents should reduce their academic performance). periods. Better yet, while it is not the be given other options. In developed Vocational programs should be government’s role, the private sector economies, all deserving students linked with the labor market to pre- should reconsider the pernicious should have the means to go to col- pare for employment those who are internship system that often limits

54 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 access to the best jobs to those who table pensions will allow people to percent of all jobs in rich countries — are rich enough to work for free. save over their careers as they change and most of the job creation. Al- To encourage the creation of more employers. To help families, the gov- though there is a negative stereotype jobs, governments should reduce or ernment should seriously consider of these positions as “McJobs,” service eliminate employer-paid taxes on using child-care vouchers or allowing positions are not necessarily less labor, which discourages employ- more imported nannies to help work- desirable than manufacturing jobs. ment, especially of low-wage workers. ing parents. Governments also need Some are low-paying, but many are in Most pernicious are any kind of “per to improve services such as public high-paying fields such as telecom- head” costs or taxes that create strong safety and public transportation in munications, IT, employment services disincentives for the creation of low- depressed areas to enable the poor to and health care. In any case, even the wage jobs. A per-head charge of compete more effectively and, in lowest-paying service job is better $7,000 a year for medical insurance is cases when an entire region is affect- than an informal job, which has no a nuisance for a firm creating a job ed by change, it should offer aid to stability or protection. paying $100,000 a year — but lethal distressed communities. In addition, Yet despite this sector’s impor- for one paying only $20,000. The the government should also seriously tance, service-sector productivity re- medical insurance issue has especially consider setting up a wage insurance mains low in many countries because grave implications for low-wage earn- system. According to the Brookings of limited access to capital, overregu- ers, because insurance costs make up Institution, a program to insure 30 to lation and neglect. Services are espe- a much larger share of their employ- 70 percent of wages for two years cially vulnerable to low labor mobility. ment costs. would cost around $7 billion a year. Governments should also consider Beyond taxation, health care and As economies develop, govern- using active labor market programs education, the public sector should ments should also reconsider their that include job-search assistance, also consider other means to work biases in favor of manufacturing. The career counseling, training, moving with people trapped by economic service sector is increasingly impor- allowances and other re-employment change or other circumstances. Por- tant: Local services account for 60 services.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 55 In addition to these initiatives, the The goal of the New Globalization nificantly larger future role for gov- public sector should follow sound is to maintain the benefits of an open ernment because the educational, economic policies to enhance com- and dynamic economy while giving health and infrastructural demands petitiveness and productivity in sup- people a way to cope with and pre- of a modern economy are much big- port of a high standard of living. With- pare for change — to keep the pie ger and more dynamic than in the out these things, sustained future pros- expanding while ensuring as many as past. Meeting those demands means perity is unlikely. Other vital mea- possible benefit from it. Under this more than just implementing good sures include controlling corruption, paradigm, government is a partner macroeconomic policy or having a which is an especially onerous tax on that strives to maximize opportunity competent “night watchman” state. It the poor, improving infrastructure and lifetime employability. It is not a is capitalism with a human face. and finding a balanced approach to nanny state. In order to win the arguments regulation. While the size of the state should against opponents of free trade and shrink (in terms of public-sector open economies, supporters of glob- Creative Construction ownership, unnecessary subsidies, alization must address the concerns The New Globalization approach etc.), small government is not always of those who fear losing from inter- recognizes the essential link between the best answer. In fact, small gov- national trade. If we do not, resis- open economies and social supports ernment can be detrimental, both tance to trade and openness could for families dealing with a dynamic politically and economically. The gain further strength, causing the 21st-century economy. Open trade New Globalization recognizes the Doha Round and subsequent negoti- without these protections risks creat- need to maintain economic growth ations to fail. This could lead to an ing a race to the bottom, increases and create a system that distributes unraveling of the trading system into fear of change, and can increase its benefits widely to maintain politi- a confusing snarl of bilateral agree- inequality. This can have negative cal peace, economic competitiveness ments — or worse. If that happens, consequences socially, economically and support for globalization. In we risk losing much of what we have and politically. practice, this probably means a sig- built over the last half-century.

56 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 57 58 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 AFSAAmerican Foreign ServiceNEWS Association • April 2007

SUSAN REARDON’S 14 YEARS AT THE HELM OF AFSA Inside Fond Farewell to AFSA’s Beloved This Issue: Executive Director BRIEFS: BY SHAWN DORMAN THE NEW FS EXAM...... 60 VP STATE: IF ONLY ...... 61 FSA bid a fond farewell to SINCLAIRE LANGUAGE AWARDS ....62 Susan Reardon in February. AFSA OUTREACH ...... 63 Executive director of the A VP RETIREE: DAY ON THE HILL ...... 64 association for 14 years, Susan has VP FCS: DOMESTIC SERVICE & moved on to a position as executive PROMOTIONS...... 65 director of the National Chamber AFSA WINNER HONORED Foundation. Sentiments expressed IN BULGARIA ...... 67 during the Feb. 9 celebration of her tenure at AFSA — on display in song, verse and teary remarks — made clear that Susan has been Member Services Director Janet Hedrick, Susan Reardon Day on the Hill much more than an executive and AFSA General Counsel Sharon Papp at the Feb. 9 farewell event. May 3 director to the staff and AFSA officers. Described variously as a leader, a man- the opportunity to work with so many out- Details on page 67 ager, a mentor, a dear friend, a sister and standing people in the Foreign Service. a mother, she truly touched the lives of all Speaking of the strength of the association, those who had the opportunity to work she noted that its greatest asset is not in the with her. building or offices, but in the people who In her remarks before the approximate- make up the organization. ly 60 colleagues, friends and family mem- Susan brought a management style to bers attending the event at AFSA headquar- AFSA that is largely responsible for the ters, Susan said that it had been a great priv- unusually long tenure of so many of the staff ilege to serve as AFSA’s executive director members. Staff members point to her lead- for so long. She expressed appreciation for Continued on page 62

FOREIGN AFFAIRS DAY MAY 4 Join AFSA for Retiree Homecoming

he State Department’s annual Foreign Affairs Day celebration year), street address, e-mail address and phone number, or con- is scheduled for Friday, May 4. This is the traditional State tact Chryss Hernandez at (202) 663-2383. TDepartment homecoming for Foreign Service and Civil Service Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is scheduled to deliver the retirees. The department will send invitations to all those who attend- keynote address and preside over the AFSA Memorial Plaque ed last year’s event, as well as to all new retirees. If you would like Ceremony. The Foreign Affairs Day program will include off-the- to receive an invitation, please send an e-mail asap to foreignaffairs- record seminars from the regional bureaus on topical foreign pol- [email protected] with your full name, retirement date (month and Continued on page 65

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 59 A F S Life in the Foreign Service A BY BRIAN AGGELER N E W S

AFSA HEADQUARTERS: Staff: Governing Board: (202) 338-4045; Fax: (202) 338-6820 Executive Director, Acting, Ian Houston: [email protected] Business Department STATE DEPARTMENT AFSA OFFICE: PRESIDENT: J. Anthony Holmes (202) 647-8160; Fax: (202) 647-0265 Controller Twee Nguyen: [email protected] STATE VICE PRESIDENT: Steven Kashkett USAID AFSA OFFICE: Accounting Assistant Jon Reed: [email protected] (202) 712-1941; Fax: (202) 216-3710 Labor Management USAID VICE PRESIDENT: Francisco Zamora FCS AFSA OFFICE: General Counsel Sharon Papp: [email protected] FCS VICE PRESIDENT: Donald Businger Labor Management Attorney Zlatana Badrich: [email protected] FAS VICE PRESIDENT: Vacant (202) 482-9088; Fax: (202) 482-9087 Labor Management Specialist James Yorke: [email protected] Grievance Attorneys Neera Parikh: [email protected] and Holly Rich: [email protected] RETIREE VICE PRESIDENT: David Reuther AFSA WEB SITE: www.afsa.org Office Manager Christine Warren: [email protected] SECRETARY: Tex Harris AFSA E-MAIL: [email protected] USAID Senior Labor Management Adviser Douglas Broome: [email protected] TREASURER: Andrew Winter FSJ: [email protected] USAID Office Manager Asgeir Sigfusson: [email protected] PRESIDENT: [email protected] STATE REPRESENTATIVES: Alan Misenheimer, Member Services STATE VP: [email protected] Director Janet Hedrick: [email protected] Hugh Neighbour, Joyce Namde, Randy RETIREE VP: [email protected] Representative Cory Nishi: [email protected] Steen, Daphne Titus, Andrew Young, USAID VP: [email protected] Web-site & Database Associate: vacant Andrea Zomaszewicz and Sandy Robinson FCS VP: [email protected] Administrative Assistant Ana Lopez: [email protected] USAID REPRESENTATIVE: Mike Henning Outreach Programs AFSA News Retiree Liaison Bonnie Brown: [email protected] FCS REPRESENTATIVE: William Center Editor Shawn Dorman: [email protected] Director of Communications Thomas Switzer: [email protected] FAS REPRESENTATIVE: Robert Curtis (202) 338-4045 x 503; Fax: (202) 338-8244 Congressional Affairs Director Ian Houston: [email protected] IBB REPRESENTATIVE: Al Pessin Executive Assistant to the President Austin Tracy: [email protected] On the Web: www.afsa.org/news Scholarship Director Lori Dec: [email protected] RETIREE REPRESENTATIVES: Leonard J. How to Contact Us: to Contact How Professional Issues Coordinator Barbara Berger: [email protected] Baldyga, Roger Dankert, Larry Lesser and Elderhostel Coordinator Janice Bay: [email protected] Gilbert Sheinbaum

60 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 A F V.P. VOICE: STATE BY STEVE KASHKETT S A N E W If Only ... S

f only we could hire into the Foreign Service just those peo- If only we could hire into the ple who are willing to go where they are told without com- Foreign Service just those people who Iplaining about their personal preferences, our transition to understand that their opinions about an “expeditionary” assignment system would be so much easi- U.S. foreign policy (if they have any) er. This old-fashioned practice of allowing them to “bid” and should remain private, we could man- have a say in their overseas postings is nothing but an antiquat- age things so much more smoothly. ed vestige of the Ivy League old-boy network of the pre-1960s Don’t they understand that it is the elected leaders in the White Foreign Service, which used to treat diplomats as specially pam- House who decide policy and that it is not their job to tell their pered civil servants. All they want to do anyway is read the news- leaders what is actually going on overseas, but to carry out what papers at their desks in Paris, have long these leaders have already decided? We lunches and go to black-tie cocktail If only we could hire into the need to weed out those self-important, receptions every evening. Diplomats arrogant rank-and-file diplomats who should be no different from soldiers and, Foreign Service just those people are laboring under the illusion that their of course, soldiers follow orders unques- input on policy is somehow needed or who understand that their opinions tioningly. useful. How impudent of them to think If only we could hire into the about U.S. foreign policy should that they know better than our elected Foreign Service just those people who leaders just because they have lived and do not have families, we would have so remain private, we could manage worked in foreign countries! They are much less to worry about. We would things so much more smoothly. bureaucrats, not policymakers. not have to deal with transportation If only we could hire into the expenses for family members, with con- Foreign Service just those people who cerns about unavailability of decent schools, or with elderly par- belong to and personally embrace the views of the president’s polit- ents who always seem to be getting sick. We would not have to ical party, we could do a much better job selling our government’s struggle with disgruntled spouses who whine about the demise position through public diplomacy campaigns all over the world. of their own careers and complain about job opportunities at How can we seriously expect Foreign Service officers who belong overseas posts. We would not have to cope with slackers who to the “other” party to do a credible job selling the administra- avoid war-zone assignments because they don’t want to be sep- tion’s foreign policy to audiences overseas? Those who harbor arated from their families. There must be a way to limit the Foreign disagreements with the president’s party have a tendency to raise Service to people with no spouses, partners or kids — in the inter- a lot of questions and express dissenting opinions, sometimes even est of national security. in public. We need more loyalty and discipline in the ranks, and If only we could hire into the Foreign Service just those peo- the only realistic way to ensure that is to make the proper party ple who want to work in the Third World, we could really move affiliation a requirement for members of the Foreign Service who smartly toward a future of pure transformational diplomacy. want to serve abroad. Hey, it works well for political-appointee Honestly, why do we need all these people who specialize in ambassadors! Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc.? There is nothing trans- Think this column is unnecessarily overblown and hyperbol- formational going on in those parts of the world, and we can man- ic? I have heard every one of these ideas expressed by non-career age our relationship with those governments by watching the Fox appointees (and even some of our own FS members) over the News world report, reading the international section of the Wall past 18 months. The future of a broad-based, family-friendly Street Journal and keeping in e-mail contact with the leaders of Foreign Service in which diplomats play a meaningful role in the those countries. In the electronic age, who needs career “experts” formulation of foreign policy and are free to engage in open debate, on Europe living at taxpayers’ expense in London, Brussels and and even constructive dissent, about the wisdom of various pos- Berlin — don’t we have think-tanks with that expertise anyway? sible courses of action — that is what hangs in the balance.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 61 A F S Susan Reardon • Continued from page 59 AFSA’s resources and staff and for profes- er in that wherever I go from here I’ll expect A ership and warmth as key to their loyalty sionalizing what was in many ways a mom- someone of your caliber to be in charge!” to AFSA. No one sticks around for the and-pop organization.” — Austin Tracy, Executive Assistant to the money, to be sure. Or the plush offices Additional tributes included the follow- President N (come visit and you’ll see — although per- ing comments from from staff and board “You have been a true advocate of the E haps the “coziness” of the headquarters members: AFSA staff in addition to being a fair, com- W building has played a role). People stay “Your professionalism and humanity passionate and highly skilled manager. But S because AFSA is a great place to work. over 14 years will be impossible to replace. most importantly, you’ve been a great role Susan shaped an organization that is truly You’ll be missed for a very long time.” model, both as a leader and as a woman family-friendly, which should serve as a — Tony Holmes, AFSA President balancing a career and a family.” great example for the agencies where AFSA “I’ve benefited so much from watching — Neera Parikh, Grievance Attorney members work. you manage every bit of AFSA over the years. “If it weren’t for you, I’d be hunting Big personalities, different styles, new You’ve done it all fairly, professionally, and puffins in Iceland!” ideas and shifting focus accompany every with a sense of humor and compassion.” — Asgeir Sigfusson, USAID Office Manager Governing Board rotation. Susan was com- — Zlatana Badrich, Grievance Attorney It was a reluctant goodbye on all sides. mended for her ability to work well with “You have been a delight to work for. The staff knew that with a newly complet- each new board that has come in, every two You have a deft touch and real understand- ed MBA, Susan had outgrown her position years. Through every twist and turn, Susan ing of how to motivate and support peo- and it was time for her to move on to a big- has been, as Janet Hedrick, member services ple.” ger organization. director and longtime friend, put it, “the — Bonnie Brown, Retiree Coordinator AFSA is well into the search for a new epitome of grace under fire.” “Thank you for your skillful mentoring executive director. A search committee, AFSA Counsel Sharon Papp worked and constant friendship.” with additional assistance from an execu- with Susan for almost 15 years. In her trib- — Steve Honley, Foreign Service Journal tive search firm, is hard at work seeking the ute, she said Susan deserves the highest Editor best possible candidate to step into some praise for her “excellent management of “You’ve spoiled my view of a manag- very big shoes.

2006 SINCLAIRE LANGUAGE AWARD WINNERS AFSA Honors Language Study Achievements BY BARBARA BERGER, PROFESSIONAL ISSUES COORDINATOR

FSA is proud to announce the 11 Studies, by instructors at the field schools the nominations. Committee members winners of the 2006 Matilda W. or by language officers at post. A commit- hope that these high-priority languages, as ASinclaire Language Awards. The tee composed of an AFSA Governing Board well as Chinese, Japanese and Russian, will Sinclaire Endowment was established in member who serves as the chairman, the receive greater emphasis and recognition, 1982, with a bequest of $175,000 to AFSA dean and associate dean of the School of as proficiency in these languages is vital to from Matilda W. Sinclaire, a Language Studies, a retiree our country’s foreign policy goals. former Foreign Service officer. member of AFSA and the AFSA congratulates the 11 winners of The purpose of the award is to AFSA coordinator for pro- this year’s Sinclaire Language Awards, list- promote and reward superior fessional issues selected this ed below. Bradley Evans, one of the win- achievement by career officers year’s winners. Each winners, was also a winner of a Sinclaire of the Foreign Service in the ner receives a check for Language Award last year for his mastery study of one of the “hard” lan- $1,000 from the Matilda of Albanian, which he learned on his own guages under the auspices of Sinclaire Endowment and while serving in Tirana. the Foreign Service Institute a certificate of recognition Geoffrey J. Anisman Hebrew School of Language Studies. In signed by the president of Susannah E. Cooper Arabic Stephen A. Cristina Albanian 2001, the guidelines were updated and AFSA and the chairman of the AFSA Rebecca Dunham Lithuanian amended to expand eligibility for the awards Awards Committee. Bradley Evans Icelandic to any career or career-conditional mem- The committee was especially pleased Gregory Macris Greek ber from any of the foreign affairs agencies. to recognize the accomplishments of those Kimberly McClure Dari Mirembe Nantongo Arabic Candidates for the award are nominat- students of Arabic and Dari, as it had Susan Parker-Burns Polish ed by the language-training supervisors or expressed disappointment last year that Michael Pelletier Arabic instructors at the FSI School of Language these critical languages were absent from Andrew Schilling Polish

62 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 A F GAINING PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR DIPLOMATIC READINESS FUNDING S Prominent Retirees Lead AFSA Outreach in 2006 A BY TOM SWITZER, DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS N rominent retirees led AFSA’s expan- Africa, Europe, Asia and the Middle East; Government Executive, Federal Times, The E sion of its national outreach efforts international trade promotion; migra- Associated Press, NPR and CNN. W Pin 2006 aimed at broadening and tion; energy issues and human rights. Among our most successful efforts was S deepening public support for funding diplo- Speakers were provided with talking heavy media coverage for AFSA’s annual matic readiness. Retirees support outreach points and issue updates from AFSA, as well Memorial Plaque Ceremony held at the through public speaking and by writing arti- as promotion material for AFSA’s best- State Department in May. The event cles and op-eds for their local papers. One selling book, Inside a U.S. Embassy. Speak- attracted network coverage and reports by of our most effective outreach vehicles is ers stressed the critical role of diplomacy in some 12 journalists from major media. The our Speakers Program, which in 2006 result was in-depth coverage via some 22 deployed 520 Foreign Service speakers to “AFSA speakers explained the media outlets nationwide, including the explain the importance of U.S. diplomacy Washington Post, NBC, CNN, Fox News, for American national interests to more importance of U.S. diplomacy to The Associated Press and NPR. than 31,000 professional and academic more than 31,000 attendees in AFSA outreach efforts have placed attendees in 43 states and Washington, D.C. strong emphasis on the vital role played by AFSA’s speaker corps includes nearly 43 states and Washington, DC.” U.S. diplomacy in the ongoing struggle 500 retired Foreign Service officers — 80 against terrorism. Since the 9/11 attacks we former ambassadors among them. Most advancing America’s vital security and eco- have deployed more than 850 AFSA of these individuals are still actively involved nomic interests around the globe. They also retiree experts on counterterrorism, Middle in international affairs as teachers, authors, encouraged audience members to contact Eastern and South Asian issues for speak- business people and consultants. Drawing their congressional representatives to er and media programs nationwide. We on their personal experiences and histori- request increased funding for U.S. diplo- also held frequent discussions regarding cal perspectives, they offer audiences an matic readiness. Our speakers also reached AFSA issues with the more than 35 diplo- opportunity both to explore the complex, out to talented youth — matic correspondents at- often confusing international order that has especially minority-group tached to the State De- replaced the Cold War and to reflect on the members — to encourage partment, as well as with evolving role of American diplomacy in the them to consider Foreign senior editors and bureau face of global terrorism and other chal- Service careers. chiefs of national media lenges. Audiences range from major world based in Washington. affairs councils and universities to commu- These outreach pro- nity-service organizations, town meet- grams have promoted ings, churches and high schools. three important AFSA Among AFSA’s prominent retiree goals: broadening the speakers were Ambassador Richard Hol- Above: Amb. Richard Holbrooke Foreign Service constituen- highlights the dangerous challenges brooke and Ambassador Marc Grossman. cy through outreach to the facing the Foreign Service to the Holbrooke highlighted for eminent legal Washington Foreign Law Society. Left: public; enhancing public experts at the Washington Foreign Law Amb. Marc Grossman explains the awareness of global affairs Society the increasingly dangerous chal- critical role of the Foreign Service to and of the key role of the lenges facing the Foreign Service in Iraq, George Mason University’s “Learning Foreign Service and diplo- Afghanistan and other hardship posts. in Retirement” adult education series. macy; and activating the Grossman elicited glowing reviews from AFSA retiree constituen- attendees at George Mason University’s AFSA’s media outreach efforts were also cy by involving it in significant programs “Learning in Retirement” adult education intensified in 2006. We placed, either direct- that draw on their backgrounds and skills series for his insightful description of the ly or through AFSA retirees, 52 op-eds, let- in telling our story to audiences nation- crucial role of the Foreign Service in var- ters to the editor, articles and press releas- wide. ied global hot spots. es advocating increased public and congres- If you would like to be involved with AFSA speakers addressed other topics, sional support for U.S. diplomacy in lead- AFSA outreach, please contact me at including counterterrorism; public diplo- ing media entities including the Washington [email protected], or 1 (800) 704-2372, macy; U.S. initiatives in Latin America, Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, ext. 501.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 63 A F S V.P. VOICE: RETIREES BY DAVID REUTHER A N AFSA Goes to the Hill, With You! E W S s you read this, AFSA is gearing up for this year’s Day on Howard Berman, D-Calif., and 103 the Hill, May 3. We wish you all could be here. bipartisan cosponsors introduced the AThroughout the 20th and 21st centuries, regardless of the Social Security Fairness Act of 2007 dangers, proud, talented Americans took up the challenge to serve (H.R. 82). A Senate bill (S. 206) was their country as members of the Foreign Service. We now look introduced by Senator Dianne Feinstein, to Congress to acknowledge this loyalty, patriotism and person- D-Calif., with cosponsors Senators al sacrifice. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, and Frank The FS community has two objectives for Day on the Hill. Lautenberg, D-N.J. During Day on the Hill, AFSA will high- The first and most important is simply to present the face of the light the elimination of the WEP penalty. Won’t you join us? Foreign Service to our elected representatives. You have already We will also highlight the Government Pension Offset, which served on America’s first line of defense overseas, but there are mandates, for example, that a widow who receives a $900 FSRDS those who don’t understand your service or mischaracterize your monthly annuity and who normally would be eligible for a $400 achievements. Some members of Congress brag that they don’t Social Security survivor benefit, would receive no Social hold a passport. Other congressional offices tell us they have no Security benefit because two-thirds of her annuity exceeds the FS constituents. Yet over my last two years as AFSA retiree vice Social Security benefit. If AFSA doesn’t raise these issues on behalf president, I have communicated with many of you who have of the retired FS community, who will? Won’t you join us? taken the initiative to expand the views of members of Congress Consider this: active-duty federal employees pay health insur- and their staffers, locally or in Washington, as educators and vol- ance premiums with pretax earnings. Retirees lose the premi- unteers. Join us in this job of making the Foreign Service com- um-conversion benefit on the date of retirement, at a time when munity a real force. the tax savings (estimated at more than $400 per year) would Our second interest is to honor your service to the country. be of great benefit. If AFSA isn’t there to raise this issue for the Nothing increases the spending of the State Department and retired FS community, who will? Won’t you join us? diminishes your professionalism more than the use of contrac- If you can’t join us in person, join us by writing your repre- tors. The enormous, security-cleared, talented and experienced sentatives and senators a letter coinciding with Day on the Hill. pool of retirees is often overlooked because Congress places a Tell them that you are proud to have served the American peo- cap, calculated in either time or salary, on retiree availability. It ple overseas and that the Foreign Service community should be eliminated these same restrictions for the retired military a few treated the same as the uniformed military when it comes to the years ago. AFSA asks, “Why not the Foreign Service commu- WAE cap, and that there is a need to revisit the punitive WEP nity, too?” AFSA works for the elimination of the WAE cap. and GPO provisions. All these issues, along with talking points Won’t you join us? and congressional addresses, are on AFSA’s Web site, at www. In 1980, a new Foreign Service Act made an FS career sim- afsa.org/congress.cfm. ilar to that of the uniformed military. This act shortened careers, forcing many to retire earlier than they expected. Talented and You served with distinction. Retire proud. skilled, most are close now to completing a second career dur- Join us by interacting with your local congressional office. ing which they earned Social Security credits. A painful e-mail Join us by writing your representatives and senators May 3. recently reminded me that the Windfall Elimination Provision Join us by using the automatic annuity deduction to pay your deprives a Foreign Service retiree of approximately 60 percent AFSA membership dues. of his or her Social Security earnings. On Jan. 4, Representative AFSA: Your Voice, Your Advocate

Retirees, do you think the department terminated your membership in AFSA? If you want to carry your payroll deduction membership into retirement, you have to clear a hurdle. The payroll deduction for AFSA membership doesn’t automatically transfer. State has two payroll offices, one for active-duty personnel and one for retirees. You have to separately file a new form for automatic deduction from your annuity. For forms, go to www.AFSA.org, hit the Retirees tab, or call Retiree Coordinator Bonnie Brown or Membership Director Janet Hedrick at 1 (800) 704-2372.

64 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 A F FAD • Continued from page 59 V.P. VOICE: FCS BY DON BUSINGER S icy issues; a panel discussion, “Maritime A Security in Our Ports — The Facts,” about how the public and private sectors work Promotions and together to improve the security of U.S. N ports; and the elegant traditional luncheon Domestic Assignments E in the Ben Franklin Room. There will also W be plenty of opportunities to catch up with S old friends and colleagues. The AFSA Memorial Plaque ceremo- y the time this article appears, AFSA/FCS will have ny takes place during Foreign Affairs Day tabled its spring 2007 midterms and updated our Web to honor Foreign Service personnel who Bsite. Hopefully, management will have signed off on two of our three fall 2005 have lost their lives while serving their coun- midterms, especially since the 30-day management review period expired in January! try abroad. The solemn ceremony, which While I always hesitate to write too specifically about items under negotiation, includes the presence of an Armed Forces in this article I wanted to throw a spotlight on an important area with which I have Color Guard, will be held at the site of significant, though dated, personal experience — FCS officers serving in domestic AFSA’s Memorial Plaques in the C Street (ODO, Office of Domestic Operations) positions outside Washington, D.C., head- lobby of the State Department. Secretary quarters. of State Rice will once again preside over The Feb. 20 e-mail sent by Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of International the ceremony and help us honor our fall- Operations Dan Harris pointed to the shortage of FCS officers for overseas posts, en colleagues. especially at higher-grade levels. Comparing the number of new hires with the retire- There are currently 221 names on the ment of many from the original wave of officers who joined in the early 1980s when two plaques, located on the east and west FCS was created, plus other attrition, this promises to get worse before it gets bet- walls of the lobby. AFSA will unveil three ter. The Harris e-mail also said management was working with ODO to create a new names at the ceremony: Margaret few more FS-1 or FS-2 positions to accommodate higher-grade officers who may Alexander, a USAID Foreign Service offi- need domestic assignments (all such positions today are FS-3, with the exception of cer and deputy director of the USAID mis- one FS-1 position in Las Vegas). sion in Nepal, who was killed on Sept. 23, In 2004, AFSA signed an MOU (see the AFSA Web site for details) on “Assignments 2006, in a helicopter crash in Nepal; Doris and Tours of Duty,” including the so-called “seven-year rule” that career candidates Knittle, a Foreign Service nurse, who was (new entrants into FCS) generally have to serve a two-year domestic tour in a U.S. killed in her home in Kabul, Afghanistan, Export Assistance Center within their first seven years of service. Therefore, we have in August 1970; and Henry Antheil Jr., a an interest in ensuring that domestic assignments “work.” The experience of the first State Department employee who died in wave of mid- and senior-level officers in ODO assignments from 1994-1998 was less a plane crash in June 1940 while perform- than positive, as none were promoted and most ranked at the bottom of their class ing official duties as a courier. Relatives of due to negative perceptions of the promotion boards on domestic versus overseas those honored will attend the ceremony. assignments. Foreign Service personnel continue to The promotion record for domestic service is not easy to assess or count given serve in very dangerous conditions and that promotions may be based on the five most recent years of service. According undertake enormous risks in the service of to the records of the last 10 boards (1997-2006), no FS-1 serving in a domestic posi- their country, and this ceremony offers us tion was promoted; five FS-2s were promoted, but three of these had mixed service an opportunity to remember and honor in the most recent year; five FS-3s were promoted, but one of them had mixed ser- these brave and dedicated men and vice; and only two FS-4s were promoted — hardly a stellar endorsement of domes- women. tic service aiding a career of promotions! All Foreign Affairs Day participants are Some lower-graded officers (especially new entrants once tenured) may have been invited to attend AFSA’s reception, from promoted out of domestic service positions, and the seven-year rule may have made 3 to 5 p.m., at AFSA headquarters for com- sense until now. But it is time for management and AFSA to review the entire “inte- plimentary hors d’oeuvres and a cash bar. gration” effort with a view to enhancing domestic service or eliminating it — or some- During the reception, AFSA will present its thing in-between. AFSA probably needs to design a “Zoomerang” survey of mem- annual merit scholarships to children of bers on this topic to get your views, but in the meantime please e-mail me Foreign Service employees. For more infor- ([email protected]) with your personal ODO experiences and com- mation about the AFSA events for that day, ments — or, if you have not served in an ODO position, you may simply provide contact Professional Issues Coordinator your views on the “golden mean” of reform. Barbara Berger at [email protected].

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 65 A F S A AFSANEWSBRIEFS N E W Notice from HR Recruiting Division AFSA Receives Major S At the Director General’s initiative, HR is redesigning the process for selecting Foreign Service officers. The new process will be a “total candidate” approach that includes Scholarship Gift two new elements: a personal biographic narrative written by the candidate and a qualifications evaluation panel that determines which candidates move forward to the oral assessment. There will still be a test (somewhat shortened) and an essay, and the oral assessment will remain as it is. Further information on the new process is available at careers.state.gov. Keep an eye on this Web site, for it will be updated as more information becomes available.

In late January, a very generous gift AFSA Welcomes New Pull Out Those of $750,000 was made to the AFSA Grievance Attorney Old Scrapbooks ... Scholarship Fund from the estate of Holly Rich has joined AFSA as a griev- Embassy Managua Seeking Photos Brockman M. Moore. This is in addi- ance attorney, replacing Charles Garten. Were you fortunate to serve in Nicaragua? tion to the $157,000 gift from the She graduated from Hofstra University Do you have any old photographs, pictures, Brockman M. Moore Charitable School of Law in 2005, where she slides or magazines from your tour there Remainder Trust that AFSA announced received the Distinguished Service to the that you would be willing to share? Law School graduation award as well as On June 22, 1849, Ephraim George Squier in the January AFSA News. The com- arrived in Managua as the first official U.S. two awards from the New York State bined gift of $907,000 is the largest representative to Nicaragua. Since then, Bar Association, one for a commitment AFSA Scholarship Fund contribution hundreds of U.S. Foreign Service officers, to labor and employment law and the specialists and locally-employed staff have ever received. Prior to this gift, the other for a state-wide writing competi- served there with distinction. largest bequest to AFSA was $806,000 tion. At Hofstra, Ms. Rich served as edi- Embassy Managua is putting together a from the estate of Naomi M. Mathews. tor-in-chief of the Labor & Employment collage to show the history of the mission The gifts will fund financial aid and Law Journal. After sitting for the New that will be displayed in the new embassy merit scholarships for Foreign Service York bar exam, she moved to London building. Please help capture this rich histo- for nearly a year to pursue a lifelong ry by sending photos of people, buildings children. personal interest in learning about the and events from your time serving in Mr. Brockman passed away in 2005 art market. A recent D.C. transplant, Nicaragua. E-mail submissions, along with a and his wife, retired FSO Marcia Martin she is thrilled to be at AFSA. She can be brief description, to [email protected]. Moore, died in 1980. She was in the Hard copies can be mailed to: U.S. Embassy reached at (202) 647-7683 or Foreign Service for 28 years, retiring in Managua, Attn: Transition Coordinator, Unit [email protected]. 2702, Box 1, APO, AA 34021. 1976. Upon the death of his wife, Mr. Brockman established a perpetual Thrift Savings Update financial aid scholarship in her name. Thrift Savings Plan contributions will not be limited by a percentage of salary in 2007, but The couple had no children, and placed IRS limitations will still apply. The 2007 IRS limitation is $15,500, which is a maximum the highest priority on education. They $596.15 contribution per pay period. If you will be age 50 or older during 2007, you may served in Guatemala, Japan, Italy, contribute up to $5,000 in additional “catch-up” contributions if your regular contributions Vietnam, England, West Africa and for the year reach the $15,500 limit. If you are contributing the full amount, consider putting in a straight dollar amount from Austria. For more information about your pay check and not a percentage of your salary. That way, when your salary increases, making a donation to the AFSA you will not risk going over the limit during the year. If you reach the limit prior to pay period Scholarship Fund, please contact 26, your contributions stop and you lose any remaining matching contributions for the year. Scholarship Director Lori Dec at You cannot enroll or change the amount of your contributions to your TSP account on the (202) 944-5504 or 1 (800) 704-2372, TSP Web site. However, you can set up and change TSP contributions at www.employee express.gov. Your logon ID is your Social Security number, and you need to get a password. ext. 504, or send an e-mail to More details are at www.tsp.gov. [email protected].

66 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 A F DAY ON THE HILL MAY 3 S by calling your representatives and senators A Pay a Visit to Capitol Hill for the FS in Washington or in their home district offices. Sample letters and information ay 3 is AFSA’s Day on the Hill. and through the April Retiree Newsletter and about how to make contact with Congress N This will be the seventh year AFSA other mailings. AFSA will focus on the need will also be posted on our Web site. Visit E Mtakes active-duty and retiree mem- to secure enough funding and resources to the special Day on the Hill page at www. W bers and their spouses to Capitol Hill for enable diplomats out in the field to do their afsa.org/dayonthehill. We also encourage S face-to-face visits with their home-state rep- jobs effectively. AFSA will also highlight the AFSA members to visit congressional dis- resentatives and senators, and congres- need to take care of those who are part of trict offices. sional staff. It is our chance to show mem- the larger Foreign Service family — spous- Please join your colleagues on May 3 and bers of Congress that they do in fact have es, children and retired personnel. help ensure that the voice of the Foreign Foreign Service constituents. If you cannot join us in Washington, Service is heard on the Hill. For more infor- AFSA will provide background informa- D.C., on May 3, consider making your views mation, contact Austin Tracy by e-mail: tion and position statements on the Foreign known on the same day from wherever you [email protected], or by phone: (202) 338- Service and retiree issues on our Web site are by sending letters, e-mails or faxes, or 4045, ext. 506.

SHARON MILES HONORED FOR WORK WITH DISABLED AFSA Award Winner Receives Presidential Medal in Bulgaria BY E. MARGARET MACFARLAND, EDITORIAL INTERN

ne of AFSA’s 2002 Exemplary persons continue to face heavy discrimi- Performance Award winners made nation. Oheadlines in Sofia recently, receiv- Through organizing seminars and ing a medal from Bulgarian President fundraising events, and appearing on George Parvanov for her advocacy work national television, Miles gave a voice to on behalf of the disabled. In 2002, AFSA an often ignored section of society. She recognized Sharon Miles for her extraor- became known in Bulgaria as a leading dinary contributions while serving in spokesperson for fair treatment for the dis- Sharon Miles, center with medal, in Bulgaria for Bulgaria with her husband, Amb. Richard the Presidential Award Ceremony. Back row, from abled, using her position as the ambas- Miles. She was presented with the Avis left: Regional Director for the Psychological Center sador’s wife to draw more attention to dis- Bohlen Award for Exemplary Performance for Research Burgas Area Ivan Karagiozov; PCR ability issues. She also tried to help those by a Foreign Service Family Member dur- Chair Diana Indjov, Ph.D.; PCR Washington in need by organizing the collection of ing the June AFSA Awards Ceremony for Representative Stephen Spector; Jocelyn Greene; food, clothing, furniture and equipment her advocacy work on behalf of fair treat- Regional Director for PCR Nevena Popova. Front to donate to various local groups, even in row: Sharon Miles and Executive Director of the ment for disabled persons in Bulgaria. remote areas of Bulgaria. Agency for People with Disabilities Mincho Koralski. On June 12, 2006, President Parvanov The Bulgarian disability awarded Ms. Miles the “Madarski organization for people with dis- movement, according to Indjov, Konnik,” the Bulgarian national medal. abilities. She visits the U.S. peri- is at a critical stage in cultivat- Following the official ceremony, Miles vis- odically to get ideas for ways to ing understanding on disabili- ited the Bulgarian Parliament and dis- energize the movement back ty issues, and she credits the cussed disability issue priorities with the home in Sofia. counsel of Miles for this chair. Indjov, during a visit to progress. Her ability to both rec- Miles was nominated for the award by AFSA, told AFSA News that ognize and fill a need has now representatives of the Bulgarian disabili- between 12 and 14 percent of been honored not only by the ty movement, through the chair of the Bulgaria’s population of 8 mil- Foreign Service community, Psychological Center for Research, Dr. lion are disabled in some way, through AFSA, but by the Sharon Miles receiving Diana Indjov, who worked with Miles in and that 90 percent of them live the Bulgarian National Bulgarian disability movement, Bulgaria. Dr. Indjov is the founder of the below the poverty line. Many Medal from Bulgarian the Psychological Center for Psychological Center, the first Bulgarian receive inadequate medical care. President George Research and the Bulgarian nongovernmental advocacy and lobbying In addition, she reports, disabled Parvanov. government itself.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 67 A F S A AFSANEWSBRIEFS N E W Foreign Earned Income — Important Change in IRS Rules S he Foreign Earned Income figure what your tax would be, then If you have questions about the TExclusion allows U.S. citizens, deduct the tax that you would have implementation of this new regula- who are not government employees paid on the excludable income. tion, please consult a financial pro- and are living outside the U.S., to fessional. exclude up to $82,400 of their 2006 For example: foreign-source income if they meet FS employee earns $80,000 certain requirements. Teacher spouse earns $30,000 Correction However, for 2006 there has been a In the March issue, “FSO Reunion” change in the way the IRS requires Before: Tax on ($110,000 minus on page 81 incorrectly refers to Jack the excluded amount to be calculat- $30,000) = Tax on $80,000 = Tax Bill Davison as deceased, yet he is very ed. This affects the tax liability for of $13,121 much still with us. The item listing the couples with one member employed four ambassadors from the A-100 class on the local economy overseas. Now: Tax on $110,000 = $20,615; of 1961 should have read: John Black- Previously, you took your total Tax on $30,000 = $3,749; Total tax = en, Stephen Bosworth, Jack Davison income and then removed your $20,615 minus $3,749 = Tax Bill of excluded income and paid tax on the $16,866 and the late Peter Sutherland. We remainder. The change now requires regret the error. that you take your total income and Increase in tax bill = $3,745 CLASSIFIEDS LEGAL SERVICES LEGAL SERVICES TAX & FINANCIAL SERVICES

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70 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 BOOKS

Triple Threat mal training — he had only a high Grant’s careful school education. Further, Strick- land’s views provide some insight into Peter Strickland: New London blending of historical how American society made the col- Shipmaster, Boston Merchant, hindsight with lective choices that ultimately shaped First Consul to Senegal its national character and influenced Stephen H. Grant, New Academia Strickland’s own its relations with other nations. Publishing, 2007, $18, paperback, words brings enor- This careful blending of Strick- 231 pages. mous value to our land’s personal view with Grant’s REVIEWED BY AARON CHASSY understanding of selective use of historical hindsight brings enormous value to our under- When done well, social history illu- U.S. diplomacy. standing of U.S. diplomacy and how it minates how societies organized responded to world affairs during the themselves and how they reacted to, early years of the republic. For contributed in — and sometimes even instead of focusing on diplomacy’s helped set off — some of the world’s of his subject, the seemingly unre- “great men,” who are often portrayed great events. Similarly, well-written markable product of a middle-class as having “made” history, this book biographies invite us, the readers, to New England family. Yet as the shows us how U.S. diplomacy in gen- share with the subjects the emotional book’s title details, Strickland (1837- eral, and the institution of the consul response to their successes and fail- 1922) enjoyed three fairly successful in particular. They represented U.S. ures in the face of life’s challenges. careers: first as a sailor and later as a commercial interests, and provided Taken altogether, historical events and ship’s officer; then a brief stint as the much-needed support and service to individuals’ efforts to play out their West African representative of U.S.- Americans who found themselves own part in these events’ creation or based commercial firms; and finally, alone in remote parts of the world. unfolding are what impart meaning to service as one of the first U.S. consuls The book’s organization is straight- these brief moments in time for in the region. forward and its style is simple enough future generations. Beyond describing his many to make it a quick read while main- Stephen Grant’s biography of career transitions, Grant allows taining the reader’s interest through- Peter Strickland, the latest title in the Strickland’s voice to illustrate aspects out. It offers a rich, non-judgmental ADST-DACOR Diplomats and Diplo- of some of the major social issues depiction of one man’s life, as well as macy Series, does not set out to offer facing America during that era: how his achievements and contributions to a grand sweep of history. But it pro- to reconcile the issue of slavery U.S. diplomacy, all within the context vides us with so much more than a between the North and the South as of a world undergoing significant simple recounting of one man’s life. It an alternative to an all-out war; the social transformation. opens our eyes to the workings of exploitation of unskilled labor, sea- transatlantic maritime commerce and men in this case, which drove Aaron Chassy, a former USAID U.S. diplomacy in West Africa, put- America’s industrial revolution; and Foreign Service officer and former ting them in the context of some of the brutal colonization of West Peace Corps Volunteer, lived and the 19th and 20th century’s major Africa by Europe. worked for five years in West Africa, developments. What emerges is the portrait of a where much of this book takes place. Drawing on nearly 60 years’ worth man whose vision and intellect far He currently lives in Virginia, where of personal diary entries and official surpassed the capacity expected he manages anticorruption programs dispatches, Grant illuminates the life from someone with his meager for- for ARD, Inc., a USAID contractor.

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 71 B OOKS

Still Discontented ing the 1990s, he served as chairman now developing countries have the of President Bill Clinton’s Council of means — membership in the World Economic Advisers and, later, was a Trade Organization — to seek a place Making Globalization Work chief economist at the World Bank. at the global economic table. And, Joseph Stiglitz, Norton, 2006, $26.95, In 2001 he shared a Nobel Prize for Stiglitz contends, developed countries hardcover, 358 pages. his work on the economics of infor- have an obligation to spread global REVIEWED BY JIM PATTERSON mation. He has had a major role in trade’s benefits among all nations. formulating international economic “If any trade agreement were to be Joseph Stiglitz is that rare breed: policies and in laying the foundation a success, it should have been the one an economist who isn’t afraid to for the current Doha Round of trade among Mexico, the United States and declare that free trade must also be negotiations, designed to reduce bar- Canada,” the 1992 North America fair trade. His latest book, Making riers to trade and to fully integrate Free Trade Agreement. But while Globalization Work (a follow-up to his diverse economic systems into a work- Mexico has benefited from access to 2002 bestseller, Globalization and Its ing global market. other markets, the gains have been Discontents), documents the fact that One of the main complaints devel- fewer than NAFTA supporters claim- the benefits of more open trade are oping countries have against devel- ed. Once self-sufficient in maize pro- not being evenly distributed among oped economies, like the United duction, Mexico now imports more members of the World Trade States and the European Union, is than 20 million tons annually from the Organization — or within societies. that nations with sophisticated econo- U.S. And rural poverty is on the rise, Stiglitz has excellent credentials for mies reap the main benefits of world fueling illegal immigration to the north. rendering such judgments. Dur- trade. This has always been true, but As the author explains, protection- Home Suite Home

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72 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 B OOKS

ism, especially by developed coun- effort to help the foundering Doha borrowing with overlending, and says tries, remains a huge obstacle to glob- Round negotiations succeed, has pro- developed countries have an obliga- alization and poses a major threat to posed eliminating $10 billion in farm tion to assist those burdened with the Doha Round. It takes many subsidies over the next five years. But debt, especially when it is not a result forms, including non-tariff trade bar- whether these cuts will find their way of government corruption. riers such as technical barriers and into the new farm bill is dependent “The global financial system is not rules of origin. Even those countries upon politics more than economics. working well,” Stiglitz concludes. He that abolish tariffs are quick to estab- Stiglitz also dissents from the pre- recommends a better capitalized glo- lish and enforce non-tariff barriers to vailing wisdom among economists and bal reserve system based on “global protect certain industries. policymakers regarding intellectual greenbacks,” a type of world currency. “The United States and Europe property rights. When the Uruguay Agree or not, Stiglitz is a policy- have perfected the art of arguing for Round’s set of multilateral trade rules minded economist with a firm grasp free trade while simultaneously work- was signed in 1994, it included an of the problems of our global econo- ing for trade agreements that protect agreement on Trade-Related Aspects my and detailed solutions to them. themselves against imports from of Intellectual Property Rights. But in developing countries,” Stiglitz notes. Stiglitz’ view, TRIPs pose serious ob- Jim Patterson, a former Foreign Ser- “The average European cow gets a stacles to trade and do not belong in a vice officer, is an economist and free- subsidy of $2 a day; more than half of trade agreement. lance journalist. His work has appear- the people in the developing world In a chapter discussing the crush- ed in the San Francisco Chronicle, live on less than that.” ing debt burden many developing New York Times and The Hill, among The Bush administration, in an countries carry, Stiglitz equates over- other publications.

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APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 73 IN MEMORY

Harold S. Daveler, 71, a retired Davelers returned to the U.S. in 2002. also kept horses, chickens, geese, rab- Foreign Service officer with USAID, In retirement, Mr. Daveler enjoyed his bits and pigs. She was skilled at oil died on Dec. 13 at his home in videography hobby as well as spend- painting, papermaking, bookbinding, Alexandria, Va. ing time with his family and his cats. candlemaking and calligraphy. Mr. Daveler was born in Hershey, Mrs. Daveler died on Feb. 2, 2003. During 35 years of retirement in Pa., on June 20, 1935. He graduated Mr. Daveler is survived by 10 nieces Ashfield, Mrs. Fessenden was active from Manchester College in 1957, and nephews. in the community. Among other received a master’s degree in religious things, she volunteered as the Friday- education from Bethany Theological night dispatcher for the local volun- Seminary, and was working toward a teer ambulance in the days before one master’s degree in international rela- Catherine “Kay” Andrus Fess- could dial 911 in an emergency. One tions at American University when he enden, 89, widow of FSO Russell of her greatest passions was writing: joined International Voluntary Ser- Fessenden, died of congestive heart she left over 20 volumes of journals; vices in 1961. With IVS, he served in failure on Oct. 22, 2006, at her home worked as a reporter for the Green- Laos until 1966 on the education in Ashfield, Mass. field Recorder; wrote regular arti- team, first as a volunteer and then as Born in Honolulu, Hawaii, Mrs. cles for the Massachusetts Audubon deputy chief of party. He then spent Fessenden graduated from Oberlin Society’s magazine, Sanctuary; and one year teaching in Laurel, Md. College in 1939, and married Russell was published in Yankee Magazine. Mr. Daveler joined USAID in Fessenden the same year. She also contributed human interest August 1967. He studied advanced During their 57-year marriage, the pieces to The Ashfield News, including Lao at the University of Hawaii, and Fessendens spent 26 years as a a popular series on local craftspeople returned to Laos in January 1968 as a Foreign Service couple, serving in in Ashfield, “Presence of the Hand.” full-time employee in the administra- Paris, Brussels, Bonn and Washing- Mrs. Fessenden was physically tive section, where he served until ton, D.C. While in Bonn, Mrs. Fess- active throughout her life, remaining December 1974. He took a direct enden’s duties included welcoming a skier, tennis player, avid bicyclist, transfer to Jakarta, and was there until several U.S. senators and Presidents hiker, canoeist and gardener well into May 1979, when he returned to Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon into the her 80s. In her 60s she worked as an Washington. In 1984 Mr. Daveler family’s residence. She became fluent apple-picker atop a tall ladder; and, was posted to Cairo, where he first in French and German. until the last weeks of her life, she was served as the administrative officer in In 1972, when Mr. Fessenden always ready to take a walk. She spent the U.S. embassy and then as the retired from the State Department, almost a decade caring for Mr. administrative officer for the USAID they moved to the ancestral home Fessenden, who died at home of Park- mission. He retired from the agency town of Ashfield, Mass., and set about inson’s disease in 2001. in Egypt in 1993. making renovations to their vintage Mrs. Fessenden is survived by her Following retirement, Mr. Daveler New England house while creating children, Helen Andrus Snyder of accompanied his wife, Delberta Mills extensive vegetable and flower gar- Portal, Ariz., David Andrus Fessen- Daveler, a Foreign Service specialist, dens. Mrs. Fessenden loved home- den and Anna Fessenden of Ashfield, to posts in Malaysia, Argentina and steading, and became accomplished Mass., Jean F. Sprague of Emporium, Peru. While in the first two countries at raising goats for meat, milk and Pa.; a sister-in-law, Susan Dean Fes- he did several TDYs for USAID. In cheese; tending sheep, and spinning senden; seven grandchildren; one Peru he worked for Embassy Lima in and weaving their wool; and beekeep- great-granddaughter; a nephew; a the administrative section. The ing. At various times the Fessendens niece; and a great-nephew.

74 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 I N M EMORY

George Der Koorkanian, 79, a Sherwin Landfield, 86, a retired for that work was recognized with the retired FSO, died on Jan. 20 at his FSO with USAID, died on Feb. 3 at agency’s Meritorious Honor Award. home in Manchester, N.H., surround- the Halquist Inpatient Center of Mr. Landfield’s final overseas ed by his family. Capital Hospice in Arlington, Va., as a assignment was to Abidjan; from there A graduate of the University of result of complications from a stroke he traveled throughout West Africa as New Hampshire, Mr. Koorkanian he suffered in 2003. USAID’s regional program evaluation joined the State Department in 1954, A native of Chicago, Mr. Landfield officer. As he had done in the where he served in the Diplomatic joined the Army in 1942, and during Americas, Mr. Landfield visited nearly Courier Service. During a 34-year World War II served in Iceland with every republic on the African conti- career, Mr. Koorkanian was posted to the 977th AAA Automatic Weapons nent before his tour was over. Panama, Germany, the Philippines Battalion. After discharge from active In June 1977, Mr. Landfield retired and Thailand, as well as Miami, Fla., duty (he remained in the reserves until from the Foreign Service, and for the and Washington, D.C. 1953), Mr. Landfield combined his next 25 years — twice in most years — Upon retiring from the Service in desire for travel with his passion for he and Mrs. Landsfield undertook a 1988, Mr. Koorkanian settled in learning: thanks to the G.I. Bill, he new international venture to discover Manchester, N.H., where he was studied at the Sorbonne in Paris and those corners of the world on their active in Democratic Party politics. A traveled around Europe. He graduat- “must visit” list. In 1999, Mr. Land- stalwart campaigner for various local, ed from Central YMCA College (later field won a Washington Post-spon- congressional, gubernatorial and pres- Roosevelt University), and received a sored contest for the most visas on a idential elections, Mr. Koorkanian master’s degree at the University of single passport: his 1985-1995 pass- worked tirelessly to support candi- Chicago in political science and public port with 51 visas from Albania to dates and causes that championed administration. He taught at Roose- Venezuela far eclipsed the closest run- social justice. velt University until he was recruited ner-up. In his lifetime, Mr. Landfield He also served as longtime treasur- by International Harvester for their visited well over 100 countries, all the er of the Hillsborough County Demo- adult education department. American states and countless islands, cratic Committee, as well as being a In 1960, Mr. Landfield joined the waterways and byways. member of both the Manchester and Point Four Program, which was soon A 36-year resident of Arlington State Democratic Committees. to become the U.S. Agency for County, Mr. Landfield was an active Mr. Koorkanian’s commitment to International Development. His first member of the county’s Donaldson social justice was further reflected assignment as an FSO was to Port-au- Run Civic Association and Citizens for through his involvement with a num- Prince, where he and a team of advis- the Abatement of Aircraft Noise. A ber of community organizations. He ers created a teachers’ college. The frequent spokesman for CAAN, he served as past president of both second post was Asuncion, where he helped push the group’s arguments all Manchester Kiwanis International and again worked on national education the way to the U.S. Supreme Court in the Manchester chapter of the reform, helping to establish that coun- 1990. He was also an active member National Association of Retired Feder- try’s first national bookmobile. Then of the National Geographic Society, al Employees. came two posting to the high Andes: and supported his wife in her volun- He was a board member of Child Ecuador, where USAID’s educational teer work as a multilingual docent for Health Services and also held mem- reform efforts were focused on a new international visitors at the National berships in the American Foreign teacher training system; and then Boli- Galleries of Art. Service Association, Foreign Affairs via, where Mr. Landfield supervised Survivors include his wife of 55 Retirees of New England, the preparation of a new national primary years, Jacqueline, of Arlington, Va.; American Legion and the New school curriculum. sons Ken of Homer, Alaska, and Kerry Hampshire Council on World Affairs. Back in Washington, D.C., in 1970, of Pflugerville, Texas; grandson Zach- Survivors include his wife of 30 Mr. Landfield served as USAID/State ary of Pflugerville; sisters Joy Feld- years, Cora, of Manchester, N.H.; his liaison to the Organization of Ameri- stein of Glenview, Ill., and Phyllis daughter, Diana Koorkanian-Sauders, can States and UNESCO. Later he Goldman of Chicago, Ill.; niece Anita and son-in-law, Robert Sauders, of was tasked with improving USAID’s Julie Goldman of Brooklyn, N.Y.; Bethesda, Md. internal communication system, and nephew Philippe Lacour of Paris,

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 75 I N M EMORY

France; and a cousin, James S. Land- Foreign Service in 1966, and subse- counselor in Tehran, province senior field of McLean, Va. quently taught at the Russian Institute adviser with CORDS in Vietnam and In lieu of flowers donations in Mr. at Columbia University and the School mission coordinator in Saigon. He was Landfield’s name are suggested to for Advanced International Studies of also posted to The Hague, Salzburg and Hospice or the Alzheimer’s Associa- Johns Hopkins University. Washington, D.C. Mr. Hawthorne’s tion. He is the author of Disarmament decorations and awards include the and Soviet Policy, 1964-1968 (Pren- State Department’s Award for Hero- tice-Hall, 1968) and Soviet-American ism and its Superior Honor Award, the Rivalry (W.W. Norton & Co., 1978), Vietnamese Gallantry Cross with Thomas B. Larson, 92, retired and co-editor, with Alexander Dallin, Bronze Star, the Purple Heart and two FSO, died on Dec. 26, 2006, in of Soviet Politics After Khrushchev Senior Foreign Service performance Hightstown, N.J. (Prentice-Hall, 1968). awards. Born in Kansas City, Mo., Mr. In 2000, Mr. and Mrs. Larson For 12 years following his retire- Larson spent his childhood in Ne- moved to Meadow Lakes, a retirement from the Foreign Service in braska. He was a graduate of the ment home in Hightstown, N.J. 1990, Mr. Mills and his Kiwi wife, University of Nebraska, and received Survivors include his wife of 64 Diana, lived on an island sheep farm an M.A. in political science from the years, Helen R. Larson of Hights- in the Bay of Islands, New Zealand. University of Chicago in 1938 and a town; a son, John D. Larson, and wife During this time, they spent the Ph.D. in political science from Co- Leslye, of San Francisco, Calif.; and a Northern Hemisphere summers crui- lumbia University in 1939. daughter, Ruth Larson, and husband sing the inland waterways of Europe Mr. Larson taught government Hunter Taylor, of Mt. Holly, N.J. aboard their French canal boat or vis- and political science at Northeastern iting their far-flung children and University, Amherst College and grandchildren. In 2002, they moved Williams College before joining the to the Hawke’s Bay wine country, U.S. Army in 1943. He started out as Hawthorne “Hawk” Mills, 78, a where Diana grew up, to be closer to a private, and was then transferred to retired FSO, died of bone cancer on family, friends and good medical the Army Specialized Training Pro- Feb. 3 at his home in Havelock facilities. gram in Army Intelligence’s Russian North, New Zealand. Mr. Hawthorne’s autobiography, program as a lieutenant. He joined Born in California, Mr. Mills grad- The Time of My Life: A Personal Look the State Department in 1947. uated from Colorado College in 1950 at the Twentieth Century (Xlibris, He served as chief of the Division and received a master’s degree from 2005), was described in the Foreign of Research for the USSR and the University of California at Berke- Service Journal’s November 2005 Eastern Europe in the Office of ley in 1958. He served in the U.S. issue as “candid and trenchant, and Intelligence and Research, and was Navy from 1945 to 1946. Mr. Mills’ sometimes at odds with conventional posted to Moscow (as attaché-politi- public service career spanned the wisdom” — but “never boring.” cal officer) and Paris (as first secre- years of the Cold War, from 1945 Mr. Mills is survived by his wife, tary-political officer). Mr. Larson also when he served as a young sailor in Diana, four children and six grand- served as a research analyst, a foreign the Pacific, to 1990, when he served children. affairs specialist and an intelligence as an international peacekeeping offi- research specialist. cial with the Multinational Force and In 1963, he was detailed to the Observers in the Sinai, helping en- National War College as director of force the security provisions of the Phelon DeLafyette Peters, 76, a the Department of Political Affairs. Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty. retired Senior Foreign Service officer Following the assassination of John F. Over a 36-year Foreign Service with USIA, former Fulbright scholar Kennedy in 1963, Mr. Larson ap- career, Mr. Mills also served as chief and Korean War veteran, died on Nov. peared on national television as a of mission in Afghanistan during the 28, 2006, in his hometown of Winston- Soviet expert, analyzing an excerpt first two years of Soviet occupation, Salem, N.C., after a short illness. from the diary of Lee Harvey Oswald. DCM and chargé d’affaires in Athens, After graduating from Atkins High Mr. Larson retired from the consul general in Amsterdam, political School in Winston-Salem in 1948, Mr.

76 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007 I N M EMORY

Peters went on to become a pioneer- Italy. While in Rome, U.S. embassy managed American involvement in ing African-American career diplo- officials suggested that he join the U.S. the major international festival of cul- mat. After receiving a B.A. in English Information Agency. ture and arts of Africa and the African literature from Fisk University in In 1964, Mr. Peters began a 30- Diaspora. Mr. Peters spoke many lan- 1952, his plan to attend Howard Uni- year Foreign Service career during guages, including French, Italian and versity law school was aborted when which he served in a variety of posi- German. he was drafted into the army during tions at USIA and the State Depart- Mr. Peters’ Washington assign- the Korean War, where he served ment. His first assignment was to ments included a tour as senior inspec- from 1953 to 1954. Following military Lagos as a space science lecturer. He tor in the Office of the USIA Inspector service, he returned to studies at was transferred to Mogadishu a year General, where he evaluated the per- Loyola University in Chicago, working later as a program assistant. In 1967 formance of USIA programs in summers on the Sante Fe railroad, he was detailed to FSI to learn Europe, the Middle East, Asia and and received a master’s degree in Vietnamese. Subsequent assignments Africa. He was later deputy executive English literature in 1956. included deputy head of public diplo- director of the Foreign Service Board Mr. Peters then moved to Los macy in Bonn, head of public diplo- of Examiners, evaluating candidates Angeles, where he was a social worker macy at the U.S. consulate in Trieste, for the Foreign Service. and high school English teacher until at the U.S. consulate in Da Nang dur- In retirement, he managed pro- 1961, when he received a Fulbright ing the Tet Offensive, at the U.S. con- grams at Meridian House in Washing- scholarship to teach English as a for- sulate in Kaduna, and cultural affairs ton, D.C., for international visitors to eign language and English literature in officer at Embassy Lagos, where he the U.S. A bon vivant and gourmand,

APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 77 I N M EMORY

Mr. Peters returned to Winston-Salem Mr. Sirkin’s first job was as publicist “Forum” series on the Voice of Ameri- to care for his mother, Helen G. Peters for the Council of Jewish Welfare ca to display America’s academic (also a world traveler), until she was 89 Funds in New York from 1937 to achievements. He was then detailed years old. He continued a lifelong love 1941. As a commissioned U.S. Army to the Senior Seminar. of international travel in retirement, officer during World War II, he served For the next three years, from 1963 visiting former haunts and colleagues in the Pacific theater and in Japan. On to 1966, Mr. Sirkin served as director in Germany, Italy and South Africa entering the Army, Mr. Sirkin began a of the U.S. Information Service in regularly and often. In the novel City correspondence with First Lady South India, based in Madras. There of Falling Angels (Penguin, 2006), Eleanor Roosevelt, who was interest- he managed a staff of 125 and super- author John Berendt acknowledges ed in the daily life and opinions of vised U.S. cultural centers in Hydera- his debt to Mr. Peters for an under- recruits. As a result, he was invited to bad, Bangalore and Kerala. All four standing of Venice. the White House on New Year’s Eve Sirkin children attended local schools, Mr. Peters is survived by two sis- in 1941. The correspondence contin- an unusual choice for Foreign Service ters, Edith Mehlinger and Jacquelyn ued, with Mr. Sirkin sending Mrs. families at the time. The Sirkins main- Tolbert; a brother, Orlando Peters; a Roosevelt regular reports from basic tained longstanding connections with niece, Linda Mehlinger; nephews training camp and from the Pacific. South Indian colleagues and friends, Keith and Ferdinand Mehlinger; and Mr. Sirkin resigned his commission especially in journalism and the arts, grand-nephews Mark, Jason and as a major in 1946. For the next two returning many times for visits. Ferdinand IV. years he worked in the press office of After studying modern Greek for a Gen. Douglas MacArthur. At Sixth year at the Foreign Service Institute, Army HQ in Kyoto he guided a group Mr. Sirkin became counselor for pub- of correspondents on their first visit to lic affairs in Athens in 1967. During Abraham Meyer Sirkin, 92, a Hiroshima, among them John Hersey, five years there, in his own words, “I retired FSO with the U.S. Information who was gathering material for his sought to convince Greek journalists, Agency who used his position to book, Hiroshima. ex-politicians, university people and champion freedom of the press and From 1948 to 1957, Mr. Sirkin cultural leaders that the U.S. did not promote American good will interna- lived in London, first in a press posi- install the governing junta and did tionally, and helped develop human tion with the Economic Cooperation want a speedy return to democracy.” rights as a formal component of Agency/Mutual Security Agency. Fol- Mr. Sirkin also worked vigorously American foreign policy, died of pneu- lowing the creation of USIA in 1954, to maintain the Hellenic-American monia on Jan. 7 at a hospice-care cen- he received his commission as an FSO Union in Athens as a cultural space ter in Rockville, Md. and was appointed deputy public where opposition members and stu- Mr. Sirkin was born in 1914 in affairs officer in London. There he dents felt welcome. On at least one Barre, Vt., the son of Russian-Jewish wrote speeches for three American occasion, the Greek dictator, Col. Pa- immigrants who had come to America ambassadors and supervised a 13-part padopoulos, tried but failed to have several years earlier, fleeing discrimi- “Report from America” for BBC-TV. him removed from his post. nation and pogroms in Russia and In London, he met and married Helen His last career assignment was as a Eastern Europe. The youngest of Ball, an American on assignment as member of the Policy Planning Staff four, and the only boy, he was brought economic analyst with the Marshall in the State Department from 1972 to up in a strictly observant Jewish home. Plan mission. They moved to Wash- 1974. There, he worked to coordinate Through his mother, Mr. Sirkin was ington, D.C., in 1957. policy among various U.S. agencies on descended from a long line of rabbis. In Washington as long-range plan- international communications and When he was 13, his father died, and ning officer for USIA from 1958 to served on American delegations to he moved to New York City. He grad- 1961, Mr. Sirkin produced the first U.N. working groups on direct-broad- uated from Townsend Harris Hall draft of the contents of the U.S. cast satellites. High School, and earned a B.A. from Exhibition in Moscow — including In 1974, Mr. Sirkin wrote several Columbia University and an M.A. the kitchen where Khrushchev and papers on relations with dictatorial from the Columbia School of Journal- Nixon had their famous chat. During regimes, suggesting the U.S. distance ism in 1936. this period he also initiated the itself from its authoritarian allies of

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I N M EMORY

the time. Though supported by most Calif., of complications of cancer and Bill of New York City and Los senior officers of the department, other illness. Angeles, Calif. many of his ideas died on Secretary Born in Chicago, Mr. Winkler Contributions in memory of Henry Kissinger’s desk. He persisted, attended schools there and in Los Gordon Winkler may be sent to: The however, and the papers he drafted Angeles. During World War II, he Santa Fe Council on International helped define the functions of the new served in Europe as a bombardier in Relations, 227 East Palace Avenue, office of human rights, since upgraded the Army Air Force. After the war he Suite D, Santa Fe, NM 87501 or to to the assistant secretary level. attended Dartmouth, graduating in The Santa Fe Animal Shelter, 100 Following retirement from the 1948 with a degree in English. He Caja Del Rio, Santa Fe, NM 87507. Foreign Service, Mr. Sirkin worked as then returned to Chicago and worked a consultant with the Policy Planning as a reporter for City News and, later, Staff from 1974 to 1981. He wrote the Chicago Tribune. In 1949, Mr. more on human rights in foreign poli- Winkler married Margaret Mayer. Diana Woollons, 80, wife of cy, and also developed papers for vari- From 1952 to 1962 he worked in pub- retired FSO Sidney L. Woollons, died ous seminars as a consultant to the lic relations. on Dec. 24 in Morgan Hall, Calif. Aspen Institute. Perpetually restless, Mr. Winkler Born Diana Jozef Theresia Maria Additional consulting projects in- took President Kennedy’s “ask not” Wauters in Courtrai, Belgium, on cluded work as a “futurist” on issues speech seriously, and joined the U.S. March 18, 1926, Mrs. Woollons lived related to sharing earth images from Information Agency in 1963. Over the as a teenager under Nazi occupation, space and global warming. Mr. Sirkin course of 25 years as a Foreign Service while several of her family members drafted and edited a report for the officer, he served in Addis Ababa, were sent to work camps in Germany. National Academy of Sciences, “Re- Accra, Tehran and Washington, D.C. From 1945 to 1947, she was a local source Sensing from Space,” and edit- He ended his diplomatic career in employee of the American consulate ed a volume on the same subject for 1988, with the rank of minister-coun- general in Antwerp. In 1947 she mar- the World Bank. One of his last selor, after serving as chief inspector of ried Sidney L. Woollons, who had assignments involved writing and edit- USIA and dean of the School of Area already embarked on a career in the ing a history of the State Department’s Studies at the Foreign Service Insti- Foreign Service, eventually rising to Senior Seminar. tute. the level of consul general. Except for overseas assignments, In 1988, the Winklers moved to Mrs. Woollons lived in Belgium, Mr. Sirkin resided in Bethesda, Md., Santa Fe, N.M., where they lived for Austria, Canada, Sweden, Germany, with his family for 50 years. He was a 15 years. There, he was active in the Barbados and Washington, D.C. She member of Adas Israel congregation Council on International Relations, and her husband settled in Morgan in Washington, D.C. He enjoyed clas- writing its newsletter and serving as Hill, Calif., following his retirement sical music, skiing (which he did until president for several years. He was an from the Service in 1977. There, Mrs. age 86) and fast-walking. avid hiker, and led treks all over Santa Woollons was active in the Women’s Survivors include his wife of 55 Fe. He also volunteered at the Santa Gold Club in Gilroy and at the Santa years, Helen Winsor Sirkin, of Bethes- Fe Animal Shelter, where he was Theresa Gold Club. da, Md.; two sons, David of Santa known as the “Madam of the Cat Mrs. Woollons is survived by her Monica, Calif., and Samuel of Port- House.” The high altitude eventually husband and her daughters and their land, Ore.; two daughters, Susannah proved too difficult, and the Winklers spouses, Christine Woollons of San Sirkin of Boston, Mass., and Leah moved to Santa Barbara, Calif. Be- Jose, Calif., Sandy and Brad Laue of Sirkin, Inverness, Calif.; and six grand- sides world travel, Mr. Winkler enjoy- Morgan Hill, Calif., and Suzan and children. ed woodworking. Jeff Blackden, also of Morgan Hill. He is survived by wife, Margaret Send your “In Memory” submission to: (Peggy) Winkler, of Santa Barbara, Foreign Service Journal Calif.; three sons and their families, Attn: Susan Maitra, 2101 E Street NW, Gordon Winkler, 82, a retired Richard and Selby of New York, N.Y., Washington DC 20037, or FSO with the U.S. Information Agen- Andrew and Dorothy, and their e-mail it to [email protected], or fax it to (202) 338-8244. No photos, please. cy, died on Dec. 15 in Santa Barbara, daughter Beky, of Denver, Colo., and

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APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 87 REFLECTIONS The Best and Worst Golf Courses

BY BOB GRIBBIN

ne subjective measure for rat- year, in the regional competition orga- vast rubber plantation in Liberia. The ing an overseas post is the nized on tribal lines; we foreigners main challenge was getting to and from Oquality of the golf experience. were allocated to any region where the course, 40 miles from the capital. In that spirit, I offer the following more players were needed. In keeping Players had to run a gauntlet of road- observations. with Uganda’s strife-plagued politics, blocks manned by former dictator On becoming the consul in Mom- the contest was war by other means. Charles Taylor’s goons and child sol- basa, I rented a house that backed up However, it all ended amicably in a diers. to the Nyali Club golf course. It was huge drunk. The midtown course in Kinshasa is finally time for me to learn the game The course in Bangui became one low-lying, with lots of water hazards. and become inculcated into the arcana of my favorites. It was not much of a One rarely lost a ball, however, on of golf rules and, especially, the formal- course, with poorly mown fairways and account of the ever-present “croco- ity of a British-origin club. I joined oiled-sand greens, but it had very cold diles” — men who waited patiently by and, depending upon the season, beer. As it happened, either political each pond, waded in and retrieved played either upon lush, green fairways officer Stacy Kazacos, the only Central your ball for a small sum. In contrast, or hard-packed clay over fossilized African Republic member, Martin the course in N’Djamena had little veg- coral rock. I regularly jumped my back Yando, or I won every competition for etation but lots of sand. We carried fence for a few practice holes in the about a year. This infuriated the large- around a swath of outdoor carpet to hit early evening. Baby monkeys carted ly French membership. My triumph from into inconsistent oiled browns. off balls, doum palms swallowed them was to capture the CAR national cham- Heat was the issue in Chad: it was up and the rough hid puff adders. pionship in 1995. Unfortunately, that already 95 degrees when we started at Most refreshing during competitions was the last year it was played: the golf 9 a.m. and often 120 by the finish. was a cold fresh lime drink under the course succumbed to the ravages of Djibouti’s course resembles Chad’s: palm trees between nines. civil strife, and has not reopened. sand and rock decorated by remnants The course in the middle of Kam- Kigali has a winding nine-hole of plastic trash bags. Heat and humid- pala was full of ardent players. Though course that crosses and recrosses an ity, each about 100, necessitated a modest, the prizes — a bicycle, a set of infernal stream. A challenging course, dawn start. I would rouse a caddy off kitchen utensils or a bottle of scotch — its fairways are narrow and grass greens his sleeping mat — they slept on the were items beyond the reach of many unpredictable. The club had a mixed club veranda — and head out. One players. Despite the fact that few play- membership of Rwandans (mostly morning with a tail wind and good ers were British, an English sense of army officers who learned the game in bounces, I had a legitimate sub-par decorum prevailed. One did not fail to Uganda) and international personnel. round. The golf gods were telling me doff his hat upon entering the bar. I tried to interest now-President Paul that even in Djibouti, they smile down Most entertaining were rule-commit- Kagame in golf, but he preferred ten- on lunatics. A year later, my crowning tee arguments and rulings conducted nis (he rarely lost). Once a year we achievement came on the course in in an open fashion over beers on the decorated the club house with leftover Bujumbura. I aced hole number 12, a terrace. Real tension arose only once a July 4 bunting, and played for the 180-yard, uphill par 3 ... bounce, “American Cup.” We cooked hot dogs, bounce, in! An experienced Africa hand, Ambassa- and I gave away putters, bags and balls So which is the best or the worst? I dor Gribbin is the author of a memoir, to the winners. can’t say. I liked them all. I needed In the Aftermath of Genocide: The U.S. Other memorable African courses them all! For without a golf course, Role in Rwanda (iUniverse, Inc., 2005). include Firestone East, located on a any post is the pits.

88 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/APRIL 2007