LET’S FIX CONTACT REPORTING DEFENDING FREE TRADE TEE OFF! $3.50 / APRIL 2007 OREIGN ERVICE FJ O U R N A L S THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY Russia Enters the 21st Century CONTENTS April 2007 Volume 84, No. 4 F OCUS ON R USSIA F EATURE SAVING GLOBALIZATION FROM ITSELF / 49 There are concrete ways to counter the fears of change and increasing inequality that are fueling the current backlash against trade liberalization. By Eric Trachtenberg C OLUMNS D EPARTMENTS PRESIDENT’S VIEWS / 5 LETTERS / 6 On Speaking Truth to Power CYBERNOTES / 10 19 / UNDERSTANDING VLADIMIR PUTIN By J. Anthony Holmes MARKETPLACE / 12 While he shares the Kremlin’s traditional preference SPEAKING OUT / 14 FASTRAX / 13 for centralizing power, Putin’s approach differs from Time to Overhaul Contact AFSA NEWS / 59 that of his predecessors. Reporting Requirements BOOKS / 71 By Dale Herspring By David J. Firestein IN MEMORY / 74 INDEX TO 25 / PREPARING FOR THE POST-PUTIN ERA REFLECTIONS / 88 Where is Russia headed? Here is a look at the The Best and Worst ADVERTISERS / 86 fundamental challenges before the country and the Golf Courses Russian elite’s capacity to cope with them. By Bob Gribbin By Lilia Shevtsova 32 / AN IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY?: RESOURCES, SPACE AND PEOPLE Russia’s future depends on how it manages its resources, its space, and its people. By Clifford G. Gaddy 39 / RUSSIA CONFRONTS RADICAL ISLAM Coming to terms with its Muslim minority is likely to become a larger and more difficult problem for the Kremlin in the future. By Dmitry Gorenburg THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS PROFESSIONALS OREIGN ERVICE Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), 2101 E Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is published J O U R N A L F S monthly with a combined July/August issue by the American Foreign Service Association, a private, non-profit Editorial Board organization. Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the writers and does not necessarily represent Editor STEVEN ALAN HONLEY TED WILKINSON, the views of the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries and submissions are invited, preferably by Senior Editor CHAIRMAN e-mail. Journal subscription: AFSA Members - $13 included in annual dues; others - $40. For foreign surface mail, SUSAN B. MAITRA add $18 per year; foreign airmail, $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mail- Associate Editor KENT C. BROKENSHIRE ing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to Foreign Service Journal, 2101 E Street N.W., Washington, D.C. SHAWN DORMAN STEPHEN W. B UCK Ad & Circulation Manager 20037-2990. Indexed by Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). The Journal is not responsible for unsolicited ED MILTENBERGER ANTHONY S. CHAN manuscripts, photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. The appearance of advertisements herein Business Manager JOSH GLAZEROFF does not imply the endorsement of the services or goods offered. FAX: (202) 338-8244 or (202) 338-6820. ANDREW KIDD WILLIAM W. J ORDAN E-MAIL: [email protected]. WEB: www.afsa.org. TELEPHONE: (202) 338-4045. © American Foreign Service Art Director LAURIE KASSMAN Association, 2007. Printed in the U.S.A. Send address changes to AFSA Membership, 2101 E Street N.W., CARYN SUKO SMITH KAY WEBB MAYFIELD Washington, D.C. 20037-2990. Printed on 50-percent recycled paper, of which 10 percent is post-consumer waste. Editorial Intern JOHN K. NALAND E. MARGARET MACFARLAND JOYCE NAMDE CHRISTOPHER L. TEAL Cover and inside illustrations by Ben Fishman; photos courtesy of istockphoto.com APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 3 PRESIDENT’S VIEWS On Speaking Truth to Power BY J. ANTHONY HOLMES I was shocked. Stung, really. formidable (and sometimes often determines the individual Last November, when we con- more irritating) “bump in the assignments that follow. But it does ducted our comprehensive road,” to quote one senior happen that we have interests on both electronic survey of the views official, than it has been since sides of an issue; e.g., filling positions and priorities of the 8,500 the Vietnam War era. We’ve at unaccompanied posts. So we both active-duty AFSA members been told on a number of have to protect our members and see employed by the State Depart- occasions that ill-advised ini- that the system generates enough vol- ment, fully 65 percent of the tiatives have been deterred unteers to preclude the department 3,400 who responded (a whopping 41 inside the department because “AFSA from fulfilling its promise to use percent of the total Foreign Service will never agree to that.” directed assignments if it doesn’t. work force) said they believed AFSA It is also my impression that, if one The limitations on federal unions should be “even more vocal and looks at how AFSA engages the media mean that speaking out — in essence assertive” in future dealings with State on professional issues — whether it is bringing the weight of “public opin- management and the administration interviews with the national press or ion” in the FS to bear on manage- to advance their interests. NPR, letters to the editor of major ment’s perception of an issue — is one Only 33 percent said they thought newspapers, columns written for the of the strongest tools we have. This is we’ve had our tone and aggressiveness Journal, or the scope of AFSA’s especially true given AFSA’s long his- level about right, while a miniscule 2 engagement on the significant issues tory and the expertise and credibility percent thought we should be less affecting foreign affairs and the that stem from the fact that our offi- vocal and assertive. It was some solace Foreign Service — we have spoken cers and board come from, and return that over 80 percent of the survey’s up forthrightly, defending the FS as to, the active Service. We often know respondents were satisfied with our necessary (and frequently when State the issues as well as management, overall efforts on their behalf, though Department leaders have chosen not have equally credible and often broad- the results made it clear that they to). We have not shirked from point- er sources of information, and are bet- wanted a much stronger voice and ing out when, on issues with person- ter able to see the whole picture and firmer action in what they clearly view nel or resource implications that make foresee “unanticipated consequences” as a very difficult period for the them relevant to AFSA, the gap of specific proposals. Foreign Service. If you didn’t notice between State’s rhetoric and the reali- One current example of our ap- it, check out the article on the survey ty of the situation grows too large. proach is our response to the idea of results in the “AFSA News” section of It is important to keep in mind, of creating a mid-level entry program. the Journal ’s January edition, begin- course, that as a government employ- While such a mechanism offers the ning on page 57. ees’ union, our array of tools is limited possibility to quickly add needed skills, The reason our membership’s and we must be judicious in using address affirmative-action needs and strong desire for an even more aggres- those we have. Strikes are outlawed fill other gaps, it would also bring a sive AFSA posture shocked me was and some issues, such as individual host of significant negative factors, that it is my impression, and clearly assignments, are not negotiable. We based on a number of similar pro- the perception of State management do have the right to negotiate rules grams that were major failures in the in HR and elsewhere, that AFSA has relating to the overall process, as well past. AFSA is adamantly opposed to recently become a considerably more as “appropriate arrangements” when mid-level hiring into the generalist our members are adversely affected. corps, and we have ensured, publicly J. Anthony Holmes is the president of the And we take this entree very seriously and privately, that the key officials in American Foreign Service Association. indeed, as the larger system itself the department understand that. I APRIL 2007/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 5 LETTERS Digital State Web site at http://intelink.gov/com Neocons and Butterflies We were gratified to see in the munities/state/transformations. In his February article, “A Sound January issue several references to We also recently sponsored a glob- Strategy,” Joshua Muravchik has per- activities in which the Bureau of al call for ideas on how to use IT for formed a great service for readers of Information Resource Management’s diplomatic work, and received a the Foreign Service Journal. He has Office of eDiplomacy is involved, and number of promising suggestions. shown us how the neoconservatives, we would like to offer some addition- One idea from Embassy Lima that unfamiliar with the realities of many al background on each. The Cyber- we intend to support is the establish- countries around the world, have led notes column called attention to use ment of an “800” dial-in number for the Bush administration to make so of Wiki technology for Intellipedia, an embassies to use for public diploma- many mistakes in foreign affairs. online collaborative space for the cy purposes. On another note, Francis X. intelligence community. Here at Finally, we read with interest Cunningham’s fondness for Puccini’s State, our office launched a similar “Location, Location, Location …” by opera “Madame Butterfly” (Letters, product called Diplopedia (http:// our former colleague, Science Fel- February) is shared by many Ameri- diplopedia.state.gov) last September, low Carol Christian.