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Prediction and Control: Global Population, Population Science, and Population Politics in the Twentieth Century by Emily R. Merchant A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (History) in the University of Michigan 2015 Doctoral Committee: Associate Professor John Carson, Chair Professor Barbara A. Anderson Professor Howard Brick Professor Paul N. Edwards Acknowledgements In many ways, this dissertation was a joy to write. I found the topic fascinating when I began writing and it continues to fascinate me today. Going to the archives shaped the story in ways that I did not expect when I wrote the prospectus but that only deepened my interest in and commitment to this project. The enthusiasm of my advisors, research subjects, and interlocutors helped keep my own enthusiasm for the project high, even through difficult and frustrating moments in the archives and while writing. I could not have written this dissertation without the assistance and support of many people and organizations. The seeds of this dissertation were sown in Barbara Anderson's demographic theory and methods courses in the Department of Sociology at the University of Michigan, which I attended in 2008-2009 at the urging of Myron Gutmann. Myron Gut- mann and Barbara Anderson encouraged my critical interest in the history of demography, and this encouragement eventually led me back to the Department of History at the Uni- versity of Michigan, which I had left after earning my M.A. in 2005. I am grateful to John Carson for agreeing to be my advisor at our very first meeting, and to Kali Israel, Farina Mir, Nancy Hunt, and Gabrielle Hecht, who helped me successfully petition for re-admission to the Ph.D. program. I am also grateful to all of the staff and faculty members of the de- partment for helping me re-integrate into the program and balance it with full-time work at the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR). The support and understanding of my supervisors and colleagues at ICPSR | including Myron Gutmann, George Alter, Susan Hautaniemi Leonard, Ken Sylvester, Kristine Witkowski, Jeremy Al- bright, Russell Hathaway, Dan Brown, Brian Gratton, Melannie Hartman, and many others | made it possible for me to complete my dissertation while pursuing a highly stimulating and rewarding career. ii This project would not have been possible without the generous funding I received from several parts of the University of Michigan: the Department of History, the Rackham Grad- uate School, and the Population Studies Center. Beyond the University of Michigan, I received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Society for Historians of Amer- ican Foreign Relations, the American Philosophical Society, the Philadelphia Area Center for History of Science, the Rockefeller Archive Center, Marshall Weinberg, and the Doris G. Quinn Foundation. My committee | John Carson, Barbara Anderson, Howard Brick, and Paul Edwards | offered tremendous support and feedback throughout the process. I received generous assistance from archivists at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, the American Philosophical Society, Princeton University, the United Nations, Yale Univer- sity, and the Rockefeller Archive Center, where I would particularly like to thank Bethany Antos and Tom Rosenbaum. I am grateful to the History Committee of the Population Association of America for allowing me to sit in on its 2012 meeting and to the following demographers for allowing me to interview them: John Knodel, Ronald Lee, Richard East- erlin, James Trussell, Karen Hardee, Gretchen Condran, Douglas Massey, and Avery \Pete" Guest. Many people opened their homes to me when I was doing archival research: Rosa and Eric in New Haven; Andrea and Etan in Palo Alto; David in Philadelphia; Danielle, Sarah, and Khurram in Princeton; Rebecca Hume in New York; and Suzy and Romain in Sleepy Hollow. Back at UM, workshops in the Department of History, the Sweetland Writ- ing Center, the Science and Technology in Society program, and the Environmental History group helped me work though and refine my ideas. Ken Garner read almost every sentence of this dissertation and provided invaluable feedback. Many of the debts I incurred through the years of writing this dissertation were personal. Graduate students often experience demographic processes while writing dissertations, par- ticularly marriage, fertility, and migration. The demographic processes I experienced while writing my dissertation were divorce and mortality. I can't even begin to thank all of the friends who helped me through these events, but I would like to try. They include Eliz- iii abeth Moss, Elizabeth Sikkenga, Dan Hirschman, Jamie Budnick, Jamie Van Etten, Liz Ela, Liz Harmon, Laura Ferguson, Crystal Chung, Rebecca Grapevine, Lenny Ure~naVale- rio, Robyn d'Avignon, Elise Lipkowitz, Diana Mankowski, Christina Johnson, Annie Stultz, Dallas Bluth, David Edwards, Kai Mishuris, Emily Marshall, Kristen Cibelli, and many more. The largest debt I owe is to the anonymous woman who saved my life by making a well-timed call to 911 on the night of September 19, 2013. The family is a major focus of demographic research, and my family was indispensable to me throughout this process. My parents, Karen Hilfman and Jon Klancher, never wavered in their support for me, and never hesitated to make the trek to Ann Arbor when I needed assistance, whether in moving apartments or in washing my hair when I broke my wrist. My aunt and uncle, Lesley and Richard Hume, also became surrogate parents to me during this process, inviting me to live with them when I got divorced, taking care of me through every illness and injury, and welcoming my friends into their home on holidays and more somber occasions alike. My cousin Rebecca Hume was an inspiring if long-distance companion throughout this process, and I was overjoyed to be able to celebrate the birth of two children to my cousins Michael and Kim Hume while writing this dissertation. As a result of my own parents' divorce, I have been blessed with the most wonderful blended-extended family in the world. It's hard to say where family begins and ends with one as large as ours, so I apologize if I have forgotten anyone: Joan Cucinotta and Emily and Kate Reteshka; Nancy, Sophie, and Maya Klancher; Ken and Lois Levy and Nadine Levyfield; Tania Verafield, Jose Vera, and Maggie Haase; Mona and Helen Field and Martin Goldstein; Chris Moran and Anna Khalsa; Judy and Skip Rosner; Ari Rosner and Omri Ayalon; Robert, Joan, Beth Ann, Walter, Lydia, and David Frank; Kara and Brendan Williams-Kief; Devra and Allen Kifer; Pamela and Ridley Allen. Patrick Parker was my almost-constant companion during the last two years of the process. I am grateful to him for making me laugh several times a day and for keeping me well-supplied with ice cream during the final week of writing. This dissertation is dedicated to my grandparents, Patricia McMahan and Miriam and iv Kenneth Hilfman, all of whom lived through most of the events detailed in the following pages and passed away while I was carrying out this project. Their constant and unconditional love and support throughout my life were formative and irreplaceable. My grandmothers were some of the fiercest women I have ever known. Both served in the military in World War II and utilized the G.I. Bill to pursue educations and careers that would otherwise have been unavailable to them. My grandfather was one of the kindest and strongest men I have ever known. He shared with me his fascination for history and love of learning and teaching, and even in his last days was always eager to hear about my research. We lost Grandma Pat in 2011, Grandpa Ken in 2013, and Grandma Mimi in 2014. I am so grateful for the time I had with them and for the inspiration and confidence they gave me to complete this project. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................. ii List of Figures .................................... ix List of Tables ..................................... x List of Abbreviations ................................ xi Introduction 1 0.1 Method . 9 0.2 Scope . 13 0.2.1 Conceptual Scope . 13 0.2.2 Geographical Scope . 30 0.3 Sources . 33 0.4 Overview . 35 Chapter 1 Population Problems, Models, and Politics 42 1.1 The Malthusian Legacy: Population Thought and Politics Before the Twentieth Century . 45 1.1.1 Population Accounting: Political Arithmetic and Censuses . 46 1.1.2 The Valence of Population: From Malthus to Darwin . 49 1.1.3 The Progressive Turn: Neo-Malthusianism and Eugenics . 55 1.2 Population Problems and Population Projections: Competing Theories and Politics . 60 1.2.1 Margaret Sanger and the Neo-Malthusians: Overpopulation and the Logistic Law of Population Growth . 61 1.2.2 Social Scientific Population Models: Differential Growth . 79 1.3 Comparing the Logistic Law and the Cohort Component Method: Two Ontologies of Population . 102 1.4 Demographic Transition Theory: A Social Theory of Population Change . 111 1.4.1 Modernization and Demographic Transition . 112 1.4.2 The Geopolitical Consequences of Demographic Transition Theory . 117 Chapter 2 Disciplining Demography Between the Wars 124 2.1 International Population Science and European Population Politics . 127 2.2 Funding for Demography and the Politics of Population in the United States . 134 2.2.1 Finding Patrons for Demography . 135 2.2.2 The Population Association of America: Between Eugenics and Birth Control . 140 vi 2.2.3 Frederick Osborn and Princeton's Office of Population Research: Science in the Service of Eugenics . 144 2.3 Finding Clients for Demography . 157 2.3.1 Selling Demography to the U.S. Government . 158 2.3.2 Identifying the Correlates of Fertility . 172 Chapter 3 The Mid-Century Crisis of Global Demography 191 3.1 Demography in War and Peace .
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