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Risø Energy Report 9 Risø Energy Report 9 Risø Energy Report 9 Report Risø Energy Risø Energy Report 9 Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond Risø-R-1729(EN) November 2010 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark of University Technical Energy, Sustainable for Laboratory Risø National Risø Energy Report 9 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Reviewed by Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Hungary Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Sweden Editorial consultant Charles Butcher, Science Journalist, UK Copyright: Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, 2010 Risø-R-1729(EN) ISBN 978-87-550-3812-7 ISBN 978-87-550-3813-4(Internet) ISSN 0106‐2840 Risø Energy Report 9 Report Risø Energy Risø Energy Report 9 Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond Risø-R-1729(EN) November 2010 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark of University Technical Energy, Sustainable for Laboratory Risø National Risø Energy Report 9 Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Reviewed by Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Hungary Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Sweden Editorial consultant Charles Butcher, Science Journalist, UK Copyright: Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, 2010 Risø-R-1729(EN) ISBN 978-87-550-3812-7 ISBN 978-87-550-3813-4(Internet) ISSN 0106‐2840 Risø Energy Report 9 Report Risø Energy Risø Energy Report 9 Risø Energy Report 9 Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond Non-fossil energy technologies Risø-R-1729(EN) November 2010 in 2050 and beyond Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark of University Technical Energy, Sustainable for Laboratory Risø National Risø Energy Report 9 Edited by Edited by Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Reviewed by Reviewed by Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Hungary Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Hungary Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Sweden Lars J. Nilsson, Lund University, Sweden Editorial consultant Editorial consultant Charles Butcher, Science Journalist, UK Charles Butcher, Science Journalist, UK Copyright: Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, 2010 Copyright: Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, 2010 Risø-R-1729(EN) Risø-R-1729(EN) ISBN 978-87-550-3812-7 ISBN 978-87-550-3812-7 ISBN 978-87-550-3813-4(Internet) ISBN 978-87-550-3813-4(Internet) ISSN 0106‐2840 ISSN 0106‐2840 Contents 1 Preface ..............................................................................................3 2. Summary and main conclusions .....................................5 3. The global energy scene in 2050 .................................9 4. Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe ........15 5. Solar energy ...............................................................................23 6. Wind energy................................................................................31 7. Hydropower ................................................................................39 8. Bioenergy .....................................................................................43 9. Geothermal energy ...............................................................51 10. Energy storage .........................................................................55 11. Nuclear energy .........................................................................61 12. Carbon capture and storage ...........................................67 13. System aspects .......................................................................71 14. Synthesis ......................................................................................77 References ............................................................................................83 Index ..........................................................................................................87 Risø Energy Report Series .........................................................89 1 Preface This Risø Energy Report, the ninth in a series that began in 2002, analyses the long-term outlook for energy technolo- gies in 2050 in a perspective where the dominating role of fossil fuels has been taken over by non-fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions have been reduced to a minimum. Against this background, the report addresses issues like: • How much will today’s non-fossil energy technologies have evolved up to 2050? • Which non-fossil energy technologies can we bring into play in 2050, including emerging technologies? • What are the implications for the energy system? Further, Volume 9 analyses other central issues for the future energy supply: • The role of non-fossil energy technologies in relation to security of supply and sustainability • System aspects in 2050 • Examples of global and Danish energy scenarios in 2050 The report is based on the latest research results from Risø DTU, together with available international literature and reports. Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark Risø Energy Report 9 3 2 Summary and main conclusions Hans Larsen and Leif Sønderberg Petersen, Risø DTU, Denmark Long-term energy security depends on the continuing avail- The coming decade may see new technological advances and ability of fossil fuels and their potential substitution by re- further scale-up, leading to more cost-effective, reliable and newable energy sources. Coal and gas may well dominate controllable wind turbines and new offshore and onshore ap- the global primary energy supply for the rest of this century plications, including the introduction of wind power in the if no special effort is made to promote renewables. However, built environment. With increased focus on offshore deploy- for many countries energy security concerns are accom- ment combined with the radically different conditions com- panied by a preference for renewable options which can pared to onshore, it is likely that completely new concepts reduce their dependence on imported oil and gas, as well as will emerge, such as the vertical-axis turbine currently being helping to meet environmental policy objectives. developed at Risø DTU. Wind energy has the potential to play a major role in tomorrow’s energy supply, cost-effectively To keep the global mean temperature rise below 2°C we covering 30-50% of our electricity consumption. need, according to the IPCC, to reach global stabilisation at 450 ppm CO2eq, which means that global greenhouse gas Hydropower is a mature technology close to the limit of (GHG) emissions must be halved by 2050 and in fact redu- efficiency, in which most components have been tested and ced even more in the OECD countries. optimised over many years. According to the analyses presented in this report, it will Wave energy can be seen as stored wind energy, and could be difficult for the European countries to meet these targets therefore form an interesting partnership with wind energy. as mitigation options from the energy sector alone do not Globally, the potential for wave power is at least 10% of total seem to be sufficient, but have to be supplemented by action electricity consumption, or more if we tolerate higher prices. from other sectors, for example the agricultural sector. An ambitious yet realistic goal for Danish wave power by 2050 could be around 5% of electricity consumption. On the other hand, the Danish case described in this report shows that Denmark stands a good chance of meeting the Biomass presently covers approximately 10% of the world’s mitigation goals and of being able to phase out fossil fuels energy consumption. A realistic estimate of the total sus- rapidly and thus reduce GHG emissions at the pace needed. tainable biomass potential in 2050 is 200-500 EJ/yr covering Denmark’s wind and biomass resources, in particular, would up to half of the world’s energy needs in 2050. allow the phase-out of fossil fuels from the generation of electricity and heat before 2040. Removing fossil fuels from A large proportion of biomass will probably still be in the the transport sector will probably take another 10 years. form of wood for direct burning in less developed areas of the world. Biomass plays a special role as an easily storable Renewable energy technologies form of energy, in CHP systems based on sophisticated Solar energy can be used to generate heat and electricity all combustion technologies, and as a source of liquid fuels for over the world. Our technical ability to exploit this resource transport. has improved dramatically in recent years, and by 2050 the IEA forecasts that the PV and CSP technologies will each Several technologies are currently being developed with a produce 11% of the world’s electricity. view to improving biomass use, and these will help to make bioenergy competitive when oil prices increase. Biomass PV is by nature a distributed generation technology, whereas is a limited resource, and increases in biomass production CSP is a centralised technology, so their deployment will follow should preferably not compete with the food supply. very different routes. PV is unique among electricity gener- ation technologies in
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