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Ana Obradovic Disintegration of Yugoslavia and Its UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA ANA OBRADOVIC DISINTEGRATION OF YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ON THE SERBIAN LABOUR MARKET DESINTEGRAÇÃO DA IUGOSLÁVIA E SUAS CONSEQUÊNCIAS NO MERCADO DE TRABALHO DA SÉRVIA CAMPINAS 2018 UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA ANA OBRADOVIC DISINTEGRATION OF YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ON THE SERBIAN LABOUR MARKET DESINTEGRAÇÃO DA IUGOSLÁVIA E SUAS CONSEQUÊNCIAS NO MERCADO DE TRABALHO DA SÉRVIA Prof. Dr. Denis Maracci Gimenez – orientador Prof. Dr. Hugo Miguel Oliveira Rodrigues Dias – coorientador Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômico da Universidade Estadual de Campinas para obtenção do título de Mestra em Desenvolvimento Econômico, área de concentração Economia Social e do Trabalho. ESTE EXEMPLAR CORRESPONDE À VERSÃO FINAL DA TESE DEFENDIDA PELO ALUNA ANA OBRADOVIC E ORIENTADA PELO PROF. DR. DENIS MARACCI GIMENEZ. CAMPINAS 2018 UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA ANA OBRADOVIC DISINTEGRATION OF YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ON THE SERBIAN LABOUR MARKET DESINTEGRAÇÃO DA IUGOSLÁVIA E SUAS CONSEQUÊNCIAS NO MERCADO DE TRABALHO DA SÉRVIA Defendida em 08/05/2018 COMISSÃO EXAMINADORA Prof. Dr.Denis Maracci Gimenez– Presidente Instituto de Economia / Unicamp Prof. Dr. Anslemo Luis dos Santos Instituto de Economia / Unicamp Dr. Lício da Costa Raimundo FACAMP A Ata de Defesa, assinada pelos membros da Comissão Examinadora, consta no processo de vida acadêmica do aluno. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor Denis Maracci Gimenez and my co supervisor Hugo Dias for the useful comments, remarks and engagement through the learning process of this master thesis. I am also thankful for professors Anslemo L. Santos and Licio da Costa Raimundo for their contributions and helpful comments in the qualifications exam. To the professors of the GLU Brazil program for the great and instructive lectures and stimulating my critical spirit. I am proud of being part of this program. I would like to thank my dear friends, colleagues and comrades from the GLU program. A special thanks to Sara Sundqvist, who throughout these years had always- encouraging words and was always ready to help. I would not forget to remember Ayla and Giorgio my dear friends for their encouragement and more over for their timely support and guidance till the completion of my thesis. Furthermore, I would like to thank my husband Marko and my family who have supported me throughout entire process, I will be grateful forever for your love. I dedicate this work to my late parents for their love, endless support, encouragement and sacrifices. RESUMO A presente dissertação examina de que forma a desintegração de um país e o processo de transição podem afetar o mercado de trabalho. Será dada especial atenção aos determinantes da desigualdade e à regressão no mercado de trabalho na Sérvia no contexto da crise contemporânea. Para isso, analiso os processos pelos quais esse país passou e como eles o influenciaram. A Sérvia fazia parte da Iugoslávia, país comunista – produto complexo de uma história complexa, mosaico de povos, línguas e religiões. Dissolveu-se no início dos anos 1990. É uma tarefa extremamente difícil determinar por que isso aconteceu. Este trabalho procura identificar as teorias mais populares e famosas e fatores que procuram explicar esta situação e destacar os aspectos mais relevantes de cada uma delas. Depois da Guerra Civil nos anos noventa, as forças políticas neoliberais tomaram o poder na Sérvia e a transição começou. A transição implicou reestruturação e liberalização econômica. Isso causou mudanças consideráveis no mercado de trabalho, tais como: redução da proteção ao emprego, redução do emprego no setor público e do nível salarial; aumento rápido do desemprego e, consequentemente, aumento da desigualdade e da pobreza. As questões relacionadas com os problemas de emprego e desemprego são cruciais para todos os países, porque o nível de emprego, além do nível do produto interno bruto per capita, é um dos indicadores mais importantes da eficiência de uma economia. A análise dos determinantes da desigualdade implica a análise de diferentes áreas. No entanto, este estudo analisou apenas aquelas relacionadas ao mercado de trabalho e à política social. Três determinantes do aumento da desigualdade na Sérvia: redução dos salários, queda do emprego e desemprego. Palavras-chave: Desintegração. Mercado de trabalho. Transição. Iugoslávia. ABSTRACT This thesis examines how the disintegration of one country, and transitional process can affect labour market. Special attention is on the determinants of inequality and regression of the labor market in Serbia in the context of the contemporary crisis. In order to do this, I analyze the processes through which this country has passed and how they influenced it. Serbia was part of Yugoslavia, communist country - complex product of a complex history, mosaic of peoples, languages, and religion. It dissolved in early 90’s. It is extremely hard task to declare why this happened. This work also, driving for to link the most popular and famous theories and factors concerning the issue and to separate the most relevant aspects of each of them. After the Civil War in the nineties, neoliberal political forces took power in Serbia and transition started. Transition implicates economic restructuring and liberalization. This cause considerable changes in the labour market, such as: declining employment protection, reductions in public sector employment and wage level, rapid unemployment increases, and consequently increased inequality and poverty. Issues related to the problems of employment and unemployment are one of the crucial issues for each country, because the level of employment, in addition to the level of gross domestic product per capita, is one of the most important indicators of the efficiency of an economy. Analysis of inequality determinants implies analysis of different areas. However, this study analyzed only those related to the labor market and social policy. Three determinants of increasing inequality in Serbia: slashing wages, a slump in employment and unemployment. Keywords: Disintegration. Labour market. Transition. Yugoslavia. LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1 – External Debt of Yugoslavia, 19661-1980 in Billions of Dollars ............................. 32 Graph 2 – Cumulative Trade Deficit and Total External Debt of Yugoslavia, 1970-1980 ......... 33 Graph 3 – Gross National Product (GNP) by Sector, 1975 ....................................................... 43 Graph 4 – Gross National Product (GNP) by Sector, 1988 ....................................................... 43 Graph 5 – Employment in Serbia 2000-2004. ........................................................................ 92 Graph 6 – Employment rates (in %) ........................................................................................ 94 Graph 7 – Unemployment in Serbia 2000-2004 ...................................................................... 95 Graph 8 – Wage trends – real growth ...................................................................................... 99 Graph 9 – Labour force participation rate of Serbia in 2016 ................................................... 118 Graph 10 – Labour force by occupation 2015 ........................................................................ 119 Graph 11 – Unemployment rate of Serbia in 2016 ................................................................. 121 Graph 12 – Volume indices of GDP and AIC per capita, 2016 (EU-28=100) ......................... 141 Graph 13 – Serbia GDP per capita PPP, 1990-2015 ............................................................... 142 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – Main performance indicators of the Yugoslav economy (average annual growth, rates, % except*) .............................................................................................................................. 20 Table 2 – Employment in Selected Enterprise Categories, 1975, 1985 and 1988 (in thousands of workers) ................................................................................................................................. 39 Table 3 – Regional unemployment disparities ........................................................................ 40 Table 4 – Value of Selected Exports, 1986, 1987, and 1988 (in billions of dinars) ................... 45 Table 5 – Value of Selected Imports, 1986, 1987, and 1988 (in billions of dinars) ................... 46 Table 6 – Principal Trading Partners, 1988 (in billions of dinars)............................................. 47 Table 7 – Government Budget, 1980 (in billions of dinars) ..................................................... 49 Table 8 – Former Yugoslavia. Total Population in republics and autonomous provinces 1991 . 66 Table 9 – Former Yugoslavia Ethnic composition of republics and autonomous provinces 1991 (percentage) ............................................................................................................................ 67 Table 10 – The Mosaic of Peoples ........................................................................................... 68 Table 11 – Disparities between republics 1990(by percent) ..................................................... 69 Table 12 – Basic macroeconomic indicators of transition ex-Yugoslav countries (1999) .......... 81 Table 13 – Unemployment rates in Serbia 2000-2004.
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