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AFTER TITO... Europe [DIR-3-'80]

AFTER TITO... Europe [DIR-3-'80]

1980/No. 34 by Dennison I. Rusinow AFTER ... Europe [DIR-3-'80]

" Tito has died. ments are no less true for excessive repetition: Josip Broz, called Tito, peasant of and "On May 4th at 3:05 P.M. in the migrant metalworker, veteran of the October great heart of the President of our Socialist Fed- Revolution and maker of his own, organizer and eral of and President of the hero of Yugoslavia's epic struggle, Presidency of the SFRY, the President of the father of his reborn country and its ruler and League of Communists of Yugoslavia, Marshal of symbol for 35 years. He successfully defied Yugoslavia and Supreme Commander of the Hitler's legions, the living Stalin, and the logic of Armed Forces of the Socialist Yugoslavia's smallness, backwardness, and place of Yugoslavia, , stopped on the map, so that under him it became the beating most genuinely independent state the Balkan peninsula has known since the fourteenth With this proclamation, issued three hours century and enjoyed a global prominence and after the event by a joint meeting of Yugoslavia's influence vastly disproportionate to its size. He State and Party Presidencies, the world learned was the patron of his country's ingenious political that Tito's four-month death agony had finally and social experiments and "the last of the Habs- ended. And with the death of Tito, three days burgs" (using A.J.P. Taylor's frequently quoted before his 88th birthday, an era not only in - label) for his success in ruling the most multi- slav history, but in world history, ended. "A national and unruly of the Habsburg Empire's legend in his own lifetime," as his fellow-Croat successor states, and for a and purpose of Vladimir Bakari called him in an eulogy the rule that had more in common with II and following day, Tito was the last survivor of those Leopold II, the Habsburg "enlightened despots" who led their peoples in and after World War II of the eighteenth century, than with modern and whose names are worldwide symbols of their forms of despotism. Triumphant heretic and ulti- generation and the mid-century drama of con- mate doyen of world , he was also the flict, triumph and tragedy, heroism and infamy last surviving founder of nonalignment and in which they were the most prominent actors. latterly elder statesman to the world, listened to Roosevelt, Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Churchill, with respect and as an equal by the rulers of De Gaulle, Gandhi, Chiang, Mao, many lesser Super, Great, and ordinary Powers on all the heroes and villains, and finally Tito...now all continents and of every ideological persuasion. gone) Radio and television stations around the world interrupted their programs when the news His in on May 8, 1980, came at 6:46 P.M. West European time, and in was attended by the most impressive panoply of Prime Minister Odvar Nordli came in world leaders ever assembled for such an occa- person to the television studio to make the sionincluding 4 kings, 31 presidents, 6 princes announcement to his countrymen. from reigning families, 10 vice presidents, 22 prime ministers, 11 presiding officers of national Perhaps Tito was indeed, as some obituaries parliaments, 12 deputy heads of , and claimed, the last titan of the twentieth century. 47 foreign ministers. Their presence and the The cliches that describe his life and accomplish- attention lavished on his dying and funeral by the 2/DIR-3-'80

world press were a testimonial to Tito's multiple confidential briefing papers in the pockets of significance, to his stature and importance in some of the visiting heads of state and govern- history and as a national and world leader, and to ment. his passing as a symbol of end-of-era. "Future histories" for a Yugoslavia without They also bore witness to concern about the Tito are almost as numerous as the scholars, future. The end of one era logically implies the journalists, and embassies or intelligence services beginning of another. The moment of transition who have composed them, and as a consequence for which Tito's death is a worldwide symbol and of Tito's unanticipated longevity, many are a Yugoslav reality is accompanied by grim nearly as old. At one extreme, discounted by all omensthe gathering storm of II, responsible observers, is a forcible and virtually serious economic troubles almost everywhere, immediate reincorporation of communist but and multiple domestic and international crises independent and nonaligned Yugoslavia into the and confrontations dangerously concentrated Soviet bloc, with all that implies. A Belgrade along the arc of the Near and Middle East, a black-humor reference to this scenario made the region of enduring and once again crucial geo- rounds after , the Yugoslav political importance and fragility in which the regime's number two political personality and lands of today's Yugoslavia and those of and chief ideologist, died in February 1979. The are traditionally regarded as the Soviet leaders, who had always disliked him, western and eastern anchors. These considera- ostentatiously failed to send anyone to his tions, coupled with widespread uncertainty and funeral. According to the joke, unfortunately re- speculation concerning the role and even the via- peated as fact rather than fiction by one Western bility of post-Tito Yugoslavia, were also reflected columnist when Tito lay dying a year later, the in the "world summit" at the funeral and among complained to the Russians about this the horde of foreign journalists encamped in Bel- slight and were told: "Kardelj really wasn't very grade and Ljubljana, virtually without a break, important, you know, but please don't worry: since Tito's final illness began four months when Tito dies, we'll all be there!" earlier. The did not come to the funeral, The myriad bilateral "mini-summits" that although Brezhnev did. This scenario, .however, the attending presidents and prime ministers does have more sophisticated and longer-range engaged in before and after the funeral, versions which must be taken more seriously. sometimes formally at embassies or hotel suites One of the most popular begins with the proposi- and sometimes catch-as-catch-can in hotel tion that Tito was the only and indispensable lobbies and even elevators, were a further testi- linchpin that held Yugoslavia's traditionally mony to concern as well as products of oppor- quarrelsome nationalities together and gave his tunity. Taken all together the agendas of these country's independence and "self-management" meetings comprised a catalogue of most of the system a legitimacy peculiarly linked to his per- world's current international crises and prob- son. With his departure quarrels among the lems, from Afghanistan, Iran, the demise of nationalities will become increasingly unman- dtente and East-West relations in general to ageable, a political system based on an unstable partly subsidiary regional issues like inter- mix of Party control and a "pluralism of self- German and Indo-Chinese relations, the management interests," and on "collective and Palestinian problems, and those of the Euro- leadership" by national-regional representatives pean Community. of inferior quality and no pan-Yugoslav legiti- macy, will break down. Civil war will threaten or As for the place and role of the host country in ensue. At that point, or even earlier, someone will this troubled new era, the public record con- appeal to the for "fraternal aid" to tained only generalized promises of support for "save Yugoslav " (and unity). The and noninterference in post-Tito Yugoslavia Russians will feel obliged to respond, their inter- found (respectively) in Western and in Soviet vention will encounter widespread and effective official and quasi-official statements issued for armed resistance, the resisters will in turn appeal the occasion. Discussion of the circumstances for outside help...and we are all on our merry that might require such support or tempt some- way to World War III. one to a violation of noninterference was left to the Western, the Third World, and (by inference At the other extreme there are those who con- only) the Yugoslav pressand presumably to fidently predict a tranquil transition and a stable DIR-3-'80/3

post-Tito Yugoslavia in which there will also be pital for medical treatment. It was only later that rapid progress toward more participation by some viewers remembered noticing that he more people and "plural interests" in more and seemed to be walking with more difficulty than higher levels of public decision-makingi.e., he had at the nonaligned summit meeting in more and "social self-management" Havana the preceding September or during sub- as posited in Yugoslav theories of socialist sequent autumn trips to and the Middle democracy. This will be accompanied by more East. "withering away of the [Communist] Party" as an ultimately centralized and authoritarian political The shock of realization that Tito not only agency, by an international nonalignment that could die but was doing so came at a moment becomes increasingly Eurocentric, and by in- when the Yugoslavs, like the rest of the world, creasing economic interdependence with Western were still absorbing and weighing the implica- Europe and, to a lesser extent, the Third World. tions of another surprise, the Soviet invasion of In other words, a Yugoslavia still intact, inde- Afghanistan, also a Communist-ruled but non- pendent, nonaligned, communist-with-a-differ- aligned country whose buffer-state function in a ence that tilts further toward pluralism and strategically sensitive area had seemed to endow "democracy," and in all these qualities a Yugo- it with a degree of at least military untoucha- slavia still useful to the wider world as both an bility. East-West buffer and a multipurpose triborough Initial reactions to this combination of shocks bridge connecting the First, Second, and Third in those dark January days included some panic Worlds. buying (ingenuously explained away by a semi- official source as "belatedly following standing These and a variety of intermediate "scenar- orders that everyone involved in 'all-people's ios" constitute what David Binder, an old Bel- defense' [which means most Yugoslavs] should grade hand himself, calls "a rusty minefield" in always have a two-week supply of essential food- which "one should tread warily.' Picking one is stuffs at home") and some withdrawals from nearly as risky, despite the availability of far foreign currency savings accounts. (Official more solid information, as predicting the direc- figures later revealed an overall drawdown of 5 tion and timing of post-Mao developments in percent from these accounts during January, turned out to be. As the post-Tito era be- which is significant but hardly "the massive run gins, the most the wise should therefore dare is a on the banks" reported by some foreign media.) description and preliminary evaluation of the The armed forces were put on a low state of alert, moment of transition, the institutions of succes- meaning cancellation of leaves, and weekend sion, and the elements of the political, economic, warriors in some reserve and territorial defense and social environment in which explanations of units were called out early for training periods what did happen will be found after it happens. that were routinely scheduled for spring or early The Passing of Tito summer. On January 21, 1980, Tito underwent the am- More important, the institutions of "collective putation of his left leg, an effort to save his life leadership" in state and Party that Tito had cre- after medical and then surgical interventions had ated during the for his succession swung failed to alleviate circulatory problems that were into action in what was later and only half- leading to gangrene. The increasingly gloomy facetiously called "a dress rehearsal for the real medical bulletins issued during the days pre- event." ceding the amputation loosed a wave of dismay and anxiety that observers agree was often tinged For a time at the end of January and beginning with surprise, at first glance curious, considering of February it seemed as though the "real event" the patient's age. It was as though people had might be postponed again after all and indefi- begun to take seriously all those jokes they had nitely, with a one-legged Tito still in charge for been telling for years, to.the effect that "Tito may months or even years. He made an excellent early indeed be mortal, but there is yet no evidence to recovery from his series of operations and was support such a hypothesis." He had, after all, photographed sitting up in a chair joking with his been seen on television, celebrating New Year's sons Zarko and Aleksandar-Mio and talking Eve at his castle near Ljubljana in his usual animatedly with Lazar Koli,evski and Stevan fashion and apparently in good form, only four Doronjski, his deputies in the State and Party days before he first entered the Ljubljana hos- Presidencies. He was reported to be reassuming 4/DI R-3-'80

some of his duties, received a series of other For Tito's sake it would almost certainly have visitors, and on January 29 was moved out of the been better if he had died sooner instead of intensive care unit. lingering, reportedly with periods of conscious- People began recalling that one of his brothers ness and lucidity, at least until sometime in had survived, by several years, the amputation of April, that must have made him aware of the first one and then the other leg under similar cir- hopelessness, helplessness, and indignity of his cumstances. At Brdo kod Kranja, the castle near situation. Moreover, and important because of Ljubljana where he had spent New Year's Eve theories and speculations to the contrary, there and a brief period between hospitalizations in was no political reason why his successors should January, there were signs that he was expected have welcomed or prolonged such a passing, home again in the near future, an event that was much less concealed the event when it came. reportedly to have been marked by the sending of By mid-February, at latest, the slowness of his letters to five other heads of state, including dying had given his people enough time to get Presidents Carter and Brezhnev, that he had used to an inevitability they had subconsciously drafted or personally revised in the hospital and come to believe would never really happen and to that appealed urgently for peace and dtente observe and take comfort from the smooth func- despite Afghanistan and other blows. tioning of the "dress rehearsal" for the transi- The letters were finally sent on February 21, tion. In the process they had convinced them- with Tito's approval but over Kolisevski's signa- selves that their lives and Yugoslavia might be ture, a sign that Tito was now too ill to sign his less different without him than they had feared. name. They constituted Tito's last testament to For about six weeks, therefore, his fight for life the wider world. was indeed his last service to his country, as many On February 10 and 13 medical bulletins, described it. From then on his lingering in such a which had ceased after he left intensive care at state was an unnecessary and increasing agony, the end of January, revealed that postoperative touched with pride at the fight he was making, complications of a kind common to elderly for his people and for his successors, who even patients after such serious surgery had set in had reason for some impatience to get on with after all. On February 14 his condition was de- the business of transition that was now so well scribed as "critical" for the first time. A break- prepared and rehearsed. Most or all--including down of kidney function, a weakening of the or excepting Tito?had come to agree with the heart, pneumonia, internal bleeding, and liver old peasant in the Lika district of Tito's native failure were successively reported in the now , where many of the battles that forged daily medical bulletins. The end was near, the new Yugoslavia were fought, who summa- although not as near as was repeatedly expected. rized his feelings for a February visitor by saying simply: "A man must die." The hordes ofjournalists who had besieged the The Funeral country in January, and who had left when Tito They buried Tito with a pomp and an assembly seemed to be recovering, returned to jam the of the world's leaders that he would have appre- International Press Center in Belgrade and an ad ciated, for he was a notoriously vain man and one hoc one in Ljubljana. In the absence of enough who took special pride in playing a role on the hard or dramatic news to enable them to compete world stage so disproportionate to the size of his with Afghanistan, Iran, and an endless American country. It all went off with only one minor hitch, presidential campaign for a place on the air or in an efficiency that might have surprised him, print, many resorted to the ever lively Belgrade since he was very aware that his are rumor mill.., and repeatedly had Tito dead or in Yugoslavs (and on usually brilliant at improvisation but bad at a coma the Red Army massing the Hun- organization. In this case, however, they had had garian and Bulgarian borders!) while his sturdy of time to and had Croatian peasant's heart was still fighting its last plenty prepare reportedly fight with medically remarkable, but charac- taken the wise precaution of engaging a leading teristic stamina and will. By April some were film director to help supervise the arrangements. even writing that he had in fact died in February, Tito died on a Sunday afternoon. On Monday and that this was still being concealed so that his his body was taken to Belgrade in the Blue Train, successors could prove themselves and gain the presidential train in which he had so often legitimacy before announcing what would other- made his "royal progresses" around his do- wise cause panic and invite Soviet intervention. minions. In the Slovenian capital of Ljubljana DI R-3-'80/5

when the coffin was put on board in pouring rain, most the coming was organized, with time and at the Croatian capital of where the train rendezvous set at factory, office, shop, or school, made its only stop, once again in rain, and at the and was therefore not strictly voluntary, but Serbian and Yugoslav capital of Belgrade where watchful foreign journalists never detected reluc- he arrived, the crowds were in the hundreds of tance or annoyance at being there, and many who thousands, and in hundreds or thousands beside had spent the waiting hours chatting quietly but the tracks in smaller places along the way. almost festively were seen to cry as they passed Always they were quite clearly deeply and gen- the bier. (Many others, although also clearly uinely moved, with many in tears. Everywhere moved and even crying, curiously kept their eyes there was singing of a wartime Partisan ode to straight ahead as they passed, not even glancing their leader that begins: "Comrade Tito, we at the coffin.) In general they also waited pa- swear to you that we shall never stray from your tiently, these Yugoslavs who are normally im- road And in Catholic Ljubljana and Zagreb patient when they have to stand in line; the only church bells joined factory sirens in a penulti- reported exception was at 3 A.M. the final morn- mate salute that was repeated by churches ing, near the end of the line on , when throughout the country at the hour of his burial realization that those this far away might not three days later. make it into the kuptina before the lying-in- In Belgrade the body lay in state in the rotunda state ended led to some scuffling and a brief of the Skuptina (the Federal Parliament), a intervention by the police. prewar building in the traditional domed neo- Others came too, alternating with Tito's Yugo- classical style of the world's parliaments, until slavs on Tuesday and Wednesday and with .the the funeral ceremonies began at noon on last two hours on Thursday reserved for them. Thursday. The closed coffin of pale wood, These were the foreign delegations: 208 of them covered with the Yugoslav flag and surrounded from 126 countries by official count. There were by a display of his medals and decorations, stood 121 state delegations led by 38 heads of state, 5 on a bier in the middle of the room. It was princes and 7 vice presictents standing in for flanked day and night by first six and later eight heads of state, 6 heads of parliaments, 10 prime persons, standing silently at attention on the ministers, 11 foreign ministers, and 41 other steps of the bier and changed every three minutes ministers or state functionaries. The remaining in a solemn little ritual that began and ended 87 delegations represented political parties with the regime's senior officials. In the inter- (chiefly Communist, Socialist, and Social-Demo- vening hours and days their places were taken by cratic), movements, and other entities delegations from federal, regional, municipal, like the , whose delegation was led and finally local government and Party organs by Secretary-General . of and other institutionsall together a guard It was the countries of Western Europe, not honor representing all Yugoslavs and all their those of the Communist and Third Worlds, that estates in hierarchical order. Outside the double most consistently sent their top dignitaries en path of carpeting along which a continuous line masse. Six of themAustria, , , the of mourners passed down both sides of the bier, a , the , and West second double row of honor guards was posted by , plus from Eastern Europe-- the Presidential Guard, whose dress uniforms supplied not only their heads of state (or, in the with royal blue jackets and red trouser piping case of the Netherlands and Britain, Princes gave them the appearance of a royal guard. Consort Claus and Philip to represent reigning Solemn music played softly from loudspeakers queens who only attend state weddings, not state around the rotunda and on the Boulevard of the funerals), but also both their prime ministers and Revolution in front of the kuptina, where the their foreign ministers; Norway and lines of waiting mourners converged from two sent heads of state and prime ministers. The and further back four directions. delegations of Denmark, Luxembourg, , They came by the hundreds of thousands and and were led by heads of state (or for from all over the country, waiting up to six hours Denmark again a Prince Consort) plus foreign by day and night for their turn to walk slowly but ministers, as were those of the Soviet Union without stopping through the rotunda. Some (Brezhnev and Gromyko), most Eastern Euro- were in jeans or working clothes, but a surprising pean states, and ten from the Third World. The number including young people were in black or Yugoslavs appeared to be particularly pleased dark suits and black dresses and stockings. For that the British, in addition to Prince Philip, 6/DIR-3-'80

Prime Minister , Foreign announcement until the composition of the U.S. Secretary Lord Carrington, and leaders of the delegation had been made public--although it is opposition Labour and Liberal Parties, also equally possible the news that Chinese Premier brought the successive heads of wartime British and Party leader Hua Quo-feng would attend had missions to Tito's headquarters, Sir William more to do with Brezhnev's change of mind and Deakin and Sir Fitzroy Maclean, postwar per- its timing than confirmation that Carter would sonal friends of the Marshal whose missions in not. Finally, it was also inevitable that the later 1943 had played a major role in bringing about announcement of a state visit to Belgrade by the Churchill's and thereby the Western Allies' American President, to take place on June 24-25, recognition of Tito as a major Resistance leader should be construed as an embarrassingly tardy who should be supported. recognition of error and an effort to make amendsalthough American diplomatic sources Of those who did not come, three were particu- insist that Carter personally informed Yugo- larly conspicuous by their absence: Presidents slavia's Washington Ambassador of his June Carter of the , Giscard d'Estaing of plans when expressing his condolences and , and Castro of . The absence of explaining why he could not go to the funeral, Giscard, ostensibly because of a summit meeting i.e., before Brezhnev's coming was announced of Francophone African states in Nice, left and the Americans were accused of making a France with the lowest-ranking delegation from major error. any Western European state except . Castro as present titular leader of the nonaligned Meanwhile, the American delegation that did movement missed an opportunity of some sym- attend was led by Vice President Mondale. With bolic importance to claim the mantle of true and him were presidential mother Lillian Carter apostolic leadership from the bier of its last sur- (whose appearance before Tito's bier and at the viving founder (who was also the most authorita- funeral in a white or beige outfit, rather than tive challenger of the pro-Soviet tilt Castro favors black or dark mourning, upset more of my own for the movement). The absences of Giscard and Yugoslav friends than her son's absence did), Castro received less comment than they deserved. Ambassador-at-large Averell Harriman (an old That of Carter received far more than pleased the friend and frequent visitor to Tito and a thought- Yugoslavs, not to mention official Americans. ful inclusion), and a curiously motley and awk- wardly large collection of minor Minnesota and A European journalist described Carter as "in Yugoslav-American politicians and businessmen absentia the most talked about person at the whose Yugoslav connections were not always funeral, apart from the deceased." The Times of apparent. All in all impolitic and embarrassing London, in an editorial only slightly sharper than but really little more than a tempest in a journal- media comment elsewhere and particularly istic teapot, of more concern to news-hungry throughout Western Europe, described his correspondents bored by "commemorative jour- failure to make the trip as nalism" than to most Yugoslavs who noticed and unwise for reasons which are so clear that the commented. As for Yugoslavia, the official view failure of the to see them must was expressed by a functionary who remarked deepen the conviction that the United States is that his country knew better than to measure being led by a man who is notjust muddled, but another country's friendship by the makeup of is in some ways blind to whole areas of reality. In the delegation it sends to a funeral. this case he shows himself blind to the stature of One Yugoslav who was there also attracted President Tito, to the importance of Yugoslavia, particular attention. When the Blue Train carry- to the mood of the Yugoslav people, to the inter- ing Tito's body arrived at Belgrade's grubby ests of the United States, and once again, to the main railroad station on Monday afternoon, sound views ofhis own Department ofState. there was a surprise for correspondents and Purportedly informed leaks about State De- photographers: aboard was Tito's wife, Jovanka, partment unhappiness and desperate efforts by for 25 years his constant and affectionately atten- the U.S. Ambassador to Belgrade, Lawrence tive companion on most public occasions, whose Eagleburger, to get Carter to change his mind estrangement from her husbaod in summer 1977 were inevitable. So was speculation that and virtual disappearance since then had given Brezhnev, whose unexpected attendance was rise to much political and personal speculation announced at the last minute, had deliberately around the world. Now for a few days she was to outmaneuvered Carter by delaying his own appear once again, always flanked by Tito's sons DI R-3-'80/7

(by earlier wives) and other members of his family Doronjski as presiding officer of the Presidency in a place of honora lonely figure, still hand- of the League of Communists. The funeral pro- some and a little less stout, dressed in black and cession formed and began the four-mile walk to bowed with grief, crying frequently. Tito's villa on hill, where he was to be Whether Tito himself or others had decided buried after a second, graveside funeral oration that Jovanka should be there was never said, nor by Lazar Koligevski as president of the State were rumors that she had visited Tito on his Presidency and a second round of 48-gun and deathbed ever confirmed. The personal signifi- 12-gun salutes around the country, this time to cance of her reappearance at this time and place the accompaniment of all Yugoslavia's factory was clear and touching, and was gratifying to sirens and church bells. ordinary Yugoslavs who commented on it. Its The procession was led by massed flags (of political significance, if any, was almost certainly Yugoslavia, of the 6 constituent , and of purely symbolic, one of several gestures designed 365 wartime units of the National Liberation to signal unity in grief and forgiveness; there is Army), about 100 surviving National Heroes (the no convincing evidence that she ever aspired to highest Yugoslav military decoration), and units any political role, possibly excepting occasional from the 3 armed forces, and the Presidential efforts to influence Tito on behalf of the careers Guard with a military band. Then came the gun of wartime or clansmen from her home carriage, preceded by officers carrying Tito's district. many Yugoslav and foreign decorations dis- If there was potential political significance in played on cushions. Behind the coffin came the public reappearances and places of honor during official mourners, led by Tito's aide-de-camp, his the funeral, it applies to otherslike Ko'a family, and members of the State and Party Pres- Popovi6 (wartime hero, later Foreign Minister idencies, followed by thousands of functionaries and Vice President, and personally close to Tito) and delegations selected from all levels and walks or Mijalko Todorovi- (long-time minister, Presi- of life. Only ,the foreign delegations, who had dent of Parliament, and one of the architects of observed the Skuptina ceremonies from special Yugoslavia's liberalizing reforms of the late stands, were spared the long walk. They were 1960s)----who either withdrew from public life or transported to the burial site in buses, herded on were gently forced aside because of association and off rather like schoolchildren on an excur- with policies or people that encountered Tito's sion, which must have been a disturbing if demo- disfavor after 1971. It should also be noted that cratic experience for the massed ranks of presi- former high officials who had erred more griev- dents, kings, princes, and prime ministers ously than these and been put aside more dra- heading the delegations. The route was covered maticallylike Milovan Djilas in 1954, Aleksan- by nearly three dozen television cameras, dar RankoviE in 1966 and the Croatian, Serbian, mustered from all over the country to broadcast and other leaders who were actually purged the proceedings throughout Yugoslavia... and to rather than sidelined in 1971-72did not simil- the world, where some national networks like arly reappear in the guard of honor at the lying- Britain's BBC and 's ORF carried the in-state or among the "members of earlier Polit- entire four hours live. bureaus and Executive Committees of the Com- munist Party and later League of Communists of The boulevard and square in front of the Yugoslavia" who marched in a place of honor in Skuptina were jammed with people, as were the the funeral procession. sidewalks along the route to Dedinje, with each ward of the city assigned its own area. Otherwise, At noon on Thursday the last guard of honor, and perhaps the funeral's most remarkable consisting of the eight surviving members of the feature, the streets of Belgradeand of every country's collective State Presidency escorted by other city in the country, as aerial pho.tographs in eight generals of the Yugoslav People's Army, Friday's newspapers demonstratedwere totally carried the coffin from the rotunda and placed it and eerily empty. No vehicles moved, no one was on a gun carriage, drawn b,,v a military jeep, on abroad. At noon on May 8 Yugoslavia stopped the ramp in front of the Skuptina. A 48-gun and did not really and fully start again until the salute of 21 salvos echoed and re-echoed over the following morning. For the four hours until the city, while 12-gun salutes were fired in 10 salvos grave on Dedinje hill was sealed the only sounds in each capital city of the other republics and to be heard away from the route of the procession provinces. There was a brief address by Stevan were the startled twittering of birds, reacting to 8/DIR-3-'80

the unusual silence and empty streets as to a The two years of "best behaviour" was not just solar eclipse, and the muffled sounds of the a rough estimate: a Party Congress should take funeral proceedings coming from television sets place in 1982 and must endorse new leaderships behind curtained windows. and potentially controversial political and espe- Tit.o was buried in the garden of the upper cially economic reforms. The institutions referred middle class suburban villa that had been his to include multimember State and.Party "Presi- Belgrade residence ever since the war, among dencies" constituted on the basis of regional roses he had personally planted and tended. This parity and therefore, with some exceptions was his own wish, officials said. The grave is in deriving from the multinational character of the atrium of a summerhouse where he liked to several regions, on parity among the principal work or take coffee with personal lunchtime Yugoslav nations. Both presidencies were created guests, and is covered with a large plain white in the early 1970s, in response to Tito's own sug- marble slab bearing the simple inscription in gestion (in September 1970) that such bodies, so gold: Josip Broz Tito 1892-1980. The contrast to constituted, would be his most or only appro- the elaborate mausoleums of people like Lenin, priate successors in a multinational of , or Mao is striking an unspoken recognition of the fact that no other and no doubt deliberate. Adjoining the back of public figure in the country was generally recog- the grounds of the Dedinje villa is a museum, nized as being "Yugoslav" rather than a Serb, called the 25th of May (Tito's official birthday, Croat, Slovene, or whatever. In the state hier- also celebrated as ), which houses his archy the Presidency of the Socialist Federal personal memorabilia. From here there is a new Republic of Yugoslavia (S.F.R.Y.)consists since access to the burial site and villa grounds, which 1974 of nine persons: one elected by the Assem- converts the entire complex into a memorial to bly (parliament) of each of the six republics and the fallen leader. two autonomous provinces plus the President of the Party, the League of Communists of Yugo- On the Sunday after the funeral special masses slavia (LCY). In the Party the Presidency of the were said in Catholic churches around the coun- 165-member Central Committee, itself also based try. They were not actually requiem masses, on modified inter-regional parity, currently con- which would have been awkward both for the sists of 3 representatives from each republic, 2 church and for the formally atheist state, but from each province, and one from the Party their intent was clear to all. Zagreb television un- organization in the Yugoslav People's Army, for preceglentedly carried the services from Zagreb a total of 23 members elected by their respective and Sibenik cathedrals and the church of St. Republican, Provincial or Army LC Congresses Theresa in Zagreb, where a portion of the homily and confirmed by the Federal Congress. was also broadcast. The presence in the funeral procession of the heads of the main religious To these political summits as "appropriate in- communitiesOrthodox, Catholic, and Mus- stitutions" should be added others, at federal, limwas a further symbolic gesture by both regional, and local levels, similarly balanced sides.3 among the nationalities but also among occu- pational and functional interestsa bewildering The Succession... and pluralistic complex of "sociopolitical" (state, The outside world, and many Yugoslavs as Party, and mass political) organizations, autono- well, will be surprised by how smoothly and well mous economic organizations, and "self-manage- our "" is going to function. ment communities of interest." Together with The institutions are appropriate, and everyone is the two presidencies these are Tito's successors, going to be on his best behaviour.., at least for existing while he was there but now deprived of thefirst two years. their mediating and authoritarian father-figure, This prophecy, by a leading Yugoslav social who could be counted on to impose peace on his scientist and Party official during a Belgrade own terms whenever their disputes threatened to conversation at the end of February 1980, was to get out of hand. be heard often again in May. It was supported, moreover, by arguments designed to prove that it By mid-June, some 40 days into "the real was more than wishful thinking, from unofficial event" of a Yugoslavia without Tito, other Yugo- and non-Party as well as official and other Com- slavs were repeating the prophecy in the present munist Yugoslavs. rather than the future tense. The evidence cited DI R-3-'80/9

now included several tough and potentially con- at the Party and State Summits troversial decisions taken quickly and apparently In the last years of his long reign Tito's unique easily by the new leadership. Among these was a and extraordinary (but not unlimited) power 30 percent devaluation of the dinar, long overdue within and over the Yugoslav political system was but reportedly opposed by Tito, who never under- based, apart from his personality and status as stood economics but considered devaluation a "living legend," on a combination of top Party, loss of prestige. It also included, at first glance state, and military offices, all in later years held paradoxically, a frank airing in the mass media "without limitation of mandate," a euphemism of differences within the leadership over draft meaning that they were his until death should constitutional amendments to implement Tito's part him from them. He was as proposal that "collective leadership" should also President of the Socialist Federal Republic of mean rotating chairmanships and other officers, Yugoslavia (sometimes more simply "President limited to one or two years throughout the sys- of the Republic")and in that capacity permanent tem. Was this really necessary and wise in execu- President of the 9-member collective State Presi- tive as well as policy-making positions? Openly dency and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed discussing such disagreements on such an issue Forces, presiding over the Council for National at this early stage, one official suggested pri- Defense. He was also President of the League of vately, was a sign of self-confidence and commit- Communists of Yugoslavia, and in that capacity ment to collective decisions debated and made empowered to convene and preside over the under public scrutiny. Meanwhile, the press and 16S-member Central Committee and its 23- Yugoslav observers were also reporting that member Presidency... as well as the ex officio 9th decision-making within and among economic member of the State Presidency. enterprises and sectors was also frequently being than usual. Although in terms of formal mandate and done with greater alacrity and ease political realities Tito was unremovable from any of these offices as long as he lived and chose to The after-Tito era, based as he had planned on serve, his chief posts, t first glance paradoxi- institutions rather than individuals, was alive and cally, were uniquely removable institutions: well, at least for the moment. And many were ready to agree with the prophet quoted above; The 1974 Yugoslav Constitution explicitly pro- despite their cumbersomeness and complexity, vided for the disappearance of the office of Presi- the institutions and instruments of "collective dent of the Republic whenever Tito should cease and by "a plural- to be it. The constitutional Chapter that de- leadership" decision-making scribes this office and its powers (Articles ism of socialist self-management interests" are in 333-345) that the is cre- fact capableperhaps, in a multinational specifies position being cultures, ated for Tito and Tito alone ("In view of the his- with such diverse interests and uniquely toric role of Josip Broz Tito... "). Article 328 in capable---of functioning and accommodating the preceding Chapter, concerned with the 9- further orderly and self-sustaining change with- member state Presidency, stipulated that "With out institutional breakdown or major crises. But the termination of the office of President of the most also agreed that this capability-in-principle Republic, the S.F.R.Y. Presidency shall exercise will be severely tested, in the medium if not the all rights and duties vested in it under the present short term, and will be subject to two conditions. Constitution, and the Vice-President of the The first is that the Yugoslavs "are ready for of than individual- S.F.R.Y. Presidency shall become President routinized bureaucratic rather the S.F.R.Y. Presidency [n.b., not "President of ized charismatic leadership," as a Yugoslav fond the until the expiry of the term for of Weberian terminology aptly characterized Republic"] of faceless which he was elected Vice-President." This last is Tito's intention and the practice on a one-year basis rotating by republic and "collective leadership" in multiple loci of autonomous province among the members of the decision-making. The second is that an already In this but only "on behalf serious economic situation does not become Presidency. capacity with it do of the Presidency," its President also assumes much worse, and that measures to cope Tito's functions as commander-in-chief and not bring a distribution of sacrifices so uneven (in of the Council for National Defense. reality or in perceptions) that Yugoslavia's mul- chairman tiple regional nationalisms are again and fatally When Tito died Lazar Kolievski of Mace- roused from the watchful half slumber that was donia was therefore duly declared President of imposed on them in the 1970s. the Presidency and so Yugoslavia's first post- IO/DI R-3-'80

Tito head of state--but only for the ten days that persed Tito's powers as Party President even remained of his one-year term as Vice-President. more widely than the Constitution disperses his On May 15 he was succeeded, according to the powers as President of the Republic. annual rotational order of republics and provinces set forth in the Presidency's Rules of This complex play with , offices, and Procedures, by Cvijetin Mijatovi of - organizational charts is of more than esoteric Herzegovina. In May 1981 Mijatovi6 should be interest. Its importance as a symbol of intent and succeeded in turn by of Slo- of institutional arrangements elsewhere through- venia.4 out the system is also broader than the undeni- ably important question of whether it would be In the Party matters were not quite so clear. possible for a single person again to accumulate Because the Party Statutes specify that the Presi- anything like Tito's power at the top of the polit- dent of the LCY (Tito's ) must be elected by ical pyramid without far-reaching constitutional the Party Congress, however, this office was also changes or some form of coup. The deliberate "vacated" (the term used by the Belgrade weekly oddity and "dispensability" manifest in the way newsmagazine NIN when Tito died, at least until Tito's offices are tacked on to the political system the next Party Congress, either after the next described in the 1974 Constitution and current quadrennial one in 1982 or an extraordinary one Party Statutes bear documentary witness to the summoned for this purpose. Recognizing this frequently overlooked fact that Tito and his state of affairs but unwilling to convene an ex- officeshowever indispensable because Tito was traordinary Congress, the Central Committee at Titowere in his later years increasingly an its first meeting after Tito's death, on June 12, anachronism in that system. 6 adopted a "provisional" solution. In a 7-point resolution the CC merely changed Doronjski's In Tito's last years Yugoslavia was a country in title from "Presiding Officer" (Preds[j]edavajui) which long years of lipservice to "socialist democ- of the CC's Presidencyanother annual office, racy" based on "self-management" and what created on Tito's initiative in October 1978, to be Kardelj in his last formulatons called "a plural- rotated through the list of republics and ism of self-management socialist interests" had provincesto "President of the CC Presidency" gradually grown a corresponding infrastructure (not "President of the LCY"), with October 1980 of autonomous and semiautonomous institutions, still to be the end of Doronjski's one year term expectations, constitutional and statutory checks and time for "rotation." The resolution also and balances, and decision-making procedures. "provisionally" redistributed the powers of the These together have genuinely "pluralized" de- vacated office of President of the LCY to itself, to cision-making about public policies and (of equal a "special commission" that is bound to "con- importance!) public appointments in all sectors sult" the republican, provincial, and Army Cen- and at all levels except the very top, which was tral Committees about nominations to the CC Tito. For more than a decade now, despite a Presidency, and to a five-member "working partial turning back of the clock (on Tito's initia- presidency" for CC meetings. "This means," the tive) between 1972 and 1976, Yugoslavia has Committee was told, "that the CC Presidency will been in effect a . The powers of the retain its present role: it is not a collective presi- Federal state and Party centers, with the former dent of the Central Committee, nor is it going to constitutionally limited in scope, depend on manage its work." Finally, the resolution pro- inter-regional consensus about their use, and vided that the 9th seat of the state Presidency those who occupy central state and Party offices that the Constitution reserves for "the President depend on the approval of the regional or local of the LCY ex officio" should provisionally be authorities who send and can remove them. filled by the President of the CC Presidency Except when Tito intervened in the decision- and therefore, until October, by Doronjski, who making process (either to resolve an impasse or already has a seat there as the representative of because he did not like the results) or in the the Autonomous Province. making of appointments (because he liked some people, disliked others, or granted or denied his Whether the next Party Congress will decide to special protection to someone who lacked an ade- discontinue or re-establish the office of President quate regional political base), and except for of the LCY, and on what basis, is for the moment foreign affairs, to the end largely a jealously still an open question.5 Meanwhile, the Central guarded private sphere, for more than a decade Committee's "provisional solution" has dis- macro-economic and regional or local political DIR-3-'80/11

and social policies have been the product of fre- advantages as well as commensurate talent. Tito quently tortuous and sometimes stormy public or was 52 in 1944, and he ruled Yugoslavia until private negotiations within and among economic retired by death at nearly 88, a total of more than enterprises and sectors, institutionalized interest 35 yearsan equivalent to a Washington presi- groups, state organs, and a variety of "socio- dency lasting until 1825--during which he out- political organizations" (always including but not lived or politically outlasted all but one fringe always dominated by the chief of these at every figure (Bakari6)of the inner leadership who had level, the relevant Party organization). Of course called him Stari ("The Old Man") during the Tito could intervene but he did so less often on war. Although most of the other members of the these matters and at these levels. collective presidencies that are Tito's successors participated in the revolution, all played purely It is in this context that Tito and his offices can local and (except for Kolievski in ) be called an anachronism in a system otherwise relatively minor roles. Most are almost unknown consistently based on diffused power and de- and/or unrespected outside and sometimes even cision-making. It is in this sense that Tito's inside their home fiefs. Nor can they lay claim to offices without Tito are functionally as well as the aura of and I-was-with-Tito formally "removable" without requiring serious legitimacy that could have been asserted by many changes in the form or functioning of the system. waylaid by death or disgrace in the intervening 36 And it is also in this sense that his removal could years, such as Kardelj, Djilas, Rankovi, Koa prove to be a minor plus for continuity and sta- Popovi6, and several more. In an extension of his bility of the system generally and of its "plural- analogy for which Binder cites this observer as istic" and participatory features in particular. his source, it is as though the United States had But only if the two preconditions cited passed from the presidency of George above--public readiness for faceless leadership Washington to that of Millard Fillmore without and some success in coping with already serious benefit of a transitional leadership with 1776 and potentially worse economic problemsare and also fulfilled. qualities legitimacy. Faceless Leadership: the Millard Fillmore Era? Considerations of this kind lend importance to In his own "After Tito" ruminations,r former speculations and rumors that at least some cur- Belgrade correspondent David Binder devoted rently disgraced or sidelined wartime and post- considerable space to a comparison between war leaders of the middle generation might be American and Yugoslav postrevolutionary expe- rehabilitated or recalled. (Postwar counts, too: rience with generational continuity in leadership. Andrew Jackson came between the presidencies Both revolutions, as the present writer has noted of the heroes of the Revolution and that of Fill- on other occasions, produced and were guided by more, but was not lacking in political qualities an inner core of leaders with remarkably impres- like his successors.) For the merely sidelined sive talents, especially considering the small people like Koa Popovi:, Mijalko Todorovo6, population bases from which they were re- and (the reasons for their side- cruitedmore talented leadership, some would lining differ importantly, but they are still for- argue, than either of these countries seems able mally Party members in good standing), this to recruit from larger population bases today. Be would be relatively easy if they were wanted and that as it may, what interests Binder is a sugges- willing. For others like Djilas, Rankovi, and tive difference between the postrevolutionary those who led Croatia into crisis in 1971 it is fates of the two groups and its implications for virtually unthinkable. A third group, including post-Tito Yugoslavia: frequently able Serb, Slovene, and Macedonian politicians and administrators tarred with the George Washington was 57 when he became brush of "technocratic anarcho-liberalism" or president of the United States. He retired after one of its variants in the early 1970s, is in an eight years in office, when younger leaders who intermediate position in terms of the degrees of had made the revolution with him and shared the difficulty and possibility that a return to active aura of legitimacy that comes from being co- politics would entail. Some academic and other founders of the state had many active years intellectuals who also fell into disgrace in the ahead of them. And so Presidents Adams, Jeffer- early 1970s are in this last category as well. son, Madison, and Monroe provided a 28-year transition to a new generation of leaders who Meanwhile, as with everything in Yugoslavia, lacked the authority that derived from these the weaknesses and strengths---and the "conser- 12/DIR-3-'80

vatism" or "liberalism"of present political ism"), and everyone is being careful to do leaderships are unevenly distributed among the nothing that would bring the anathema of these republics and provinces. For whatever general labels down on his or her head. All members of popular "images" are worth, Macedonia's team collective leaderships are formally equal, al- is usually given high marks for competence and though everyone admits that some must by pragmatic flexibility (in the positive sense of that personal qualities or reputation be more equal term!). Bosnia-Herzegovina's is generally rated than others, and that this particularly applies to the most "conservative," which a Serb politician Bakari6, as the last politically active member of of a different persuasion defined as "readiest to Tito's wartime inner circle. use 'administrative measures,'" which in turn translates as arbitrary official and coercive The populace, as far as one can tell, likes it this measures, with connotations of . way, again at least for the moment, and as the Croatia disposes of considerable talent, but the least of all likely evils. Will this last? There is precise quality and political-ideological predis- surely a cautionary tale in the way other theoreti- position of leading figures are matters of dispute. cally more "mature" and "democratic" And so it goes, with the general view of 's and polities, in principle long since adapted and leadership typified by the blank or sad silence accustomed to "routinized bureaucratic" rather that tends to greet the question: "And who than "charismatic" rule, have reacted to the for Serbia?" impossibility of easy solutions to complex and speaks urgent economic, social, and international prob- It can of course be argued that if institutions lems by seeking a Someone whose genius might and routinized procedures of conflict-resolution justify their trust and great power. and decision-making are really going to count more than whether "charismatic" or The conclusion is a commonplace. Yugo- individuals, slavia's after-Tito political and economic sys- "faceless," in making or breaking continuity and tems, like other "pluralistic" ones, are charac- stability in post-Tito Yugoslavia, these personnel terized by diffused decision-making power weaknesses as well as speculations about per- lodged in many centers with different and some- sonnel changes and reserves do not matter very times conflicting interests and many participants. much. There is, after all, sufficient and often Such of systems, including Yugoslavia's, tend to be impressive talent a nonheroic and noncharis- responsive and even broadly representative ex- marie kind scattered among these institutions at cept for groups or individuals excluded or self- all levels for a nonheroic postrevolutionary period excluding because of basic ideological or cultural of continuity, consolidation, and development. alienation or marginality). By the same token, The answer will probably depend on whether however, they decide slowly, with compromises the times and popular expectations permit such a that often make the decision inappropriate or period to ensue. The omens at the moment are ineffective, or cannot decide. These are systems mixed. They are generally good in terms of that function admirably in calm seas, but ones political structures and apparent determination whose navigators should take pains to anticipate to make them work, if only because the likely and avoid major storms, in which such unwieldy alternatives, which are domestic dictatorship or if otherwise useful craft are inclined to wallow foreign domination in some degree, are less and may even capsize. Some storms are unavoid- palatable. They are less good to poor in terms of able, however, while an additional disadvantage domestic and world economic prognosis, the of the many navigators that such systems pre- international political climate, and the effect that suppose is that they may disagree until too late negative developments in these fields can be ex- about the location and intensity of storms that pected to have on popular attitudes in general, Could be avoided. the attitude of the various nationalities in par- ticular, and regime reactions to both. Of Dark Clouds and Silver Linings Pessimists who expect post-Tito Yugoslavia to For the moment at least, no one wants to be go wrong in terms of Western liberal or official accused of challenging the present rules of the Yugoslav socialist-democratic values and inter- game. The press and politicians, adopting a term ests would do well to look to the economy, and reportedly coined by Kardelj shortly before his only then to inordinate personal or institutional death in a warning to his countrymen, are on the ambitions and intrigues, for first indicators that lookout for would-be "Titi6i" (little Titos). pessimism is justified. It is here, as already sug- Another pejorative term is liderstvo ("leader- gested, that an aggravation of existing problems DIR-3-'80/13

and inadequate or inappropriate responses are rising oil prices). The payments deficit on current most likely to undermine the stability of the post- account more than doubled from $1.3 billion to Tito regime, leading to a retreat from achieved $3.4 billion. levels of pluralism, participation, and tolerance, and perchance to the destruction of the unity of Unemployment, despite 1979's remarkable 4.5 diverse nationalities and genuine nonaligned in- percent increase in employment, was also up. It dependence of the state that were Tito's great but was boosted on the one hand by workers return- always incomplete or challenged accomplish- ing home from Western Europe (at a net annual ments. rate of return down from about 80,000 during Western Europe's 1973-1976 recession to about As the 1970s ended, the performance of the 15,000 in 1978.79, leaving about 800,000 still Yugoslav economy as measured by several abroad and vulnerable to another recession) and standard indicators continued to be generally im- on the other by the arrival on the job market of pressive, which means that it had so far the products of the last years of relatively high weathered the blows that have lately befallen Yugoslav birthrates. Although the number of most national economies with less slowdown than registered jobseekers increased by less than 4 most and less current disruption than many. In percent, the lowest rate since 1972, the total at 1979 Social Product (the nearest Yugoslav equiv- year's end stood at 750,000, about 8 percent of alent of Gross National Product) grew by just total active population. Such figures, it should be over 7 percent, industrial output by 8 percent, added, are usually considered an underestima- private consumption by 5.5 percent, and employ- tion of real unemployment and underemploy- ment by 4.5 percentall particularly admirable ment; although up to one-third of registered job- in comparison with average and most country seekers are actually employed but seeking to rates in either the (Western) OECD or the change jobs, there is almost certainly a larger re- (Eastern) COMECON economic groups, with a serve of unregistered unemployed comprised of both of which Yugoslavia is associated, How- those who consider the quest hopeless and ever, even these accomplishments, because under "worker-peasants" who return to "underemploy- present circumstances they were also indicators ment" on family smallholdings when they lose a of a dangerously "overheated economy," were as job. much grounds for gloom as for self-congratula- tion. The Yugoslav economy, like many others (if In this triad of problems Yugoslavia is again that is any comfort) and with especially close better or at least no worse off than, for example, parallels in other southern European countries, is most of its Mediterranean neighbors. They often in deep trouble. have equal or higher inflation rates, balance of The most acute problems are a familiar triad: payments deficits and foreign indebtedness, and unemployment. They share Yugoslavia's exces- Inflation as measured by the cost-of-living sive vulnerability to recessions in Western and index was officially at an annual rate of 23 per- northern Europe, which cut into their exports cent at the end of 1979, with unofficial estimates and earnings from tourism and send emigrant closer to 30 percent. The regime's goal for 1980 workers (Gastarbeiter) home, eliminating their was a reduction to 20 percent, but as of March remittances and adding to domestic unemploy- 1980 the official figure had instead risen to 25.8 ment. (This vulnerability, added to others of percent, with some effects of 1979 energy price domestic origin, is why another major recession increases still to "work through" and with the in the West that is any worse than the last one June 1980 devaluation of the dinar, effectively would seriously or fatally challenge whatever increasing import costs by 30 percent, bound to passes for political stability in a string of add several points. northern Mediterranean countries that extends The balance of trade and from Portugal to .) All of them, along with deficits have reached unmaintainable levels as many other countries in which the triad has lately imports have increased in volume and cost (espe- tended to appear together, seem equally baffled cially for oil)while the volume of exports and by the special intractability of the combination, earnings from invisibles (workers' remittances, because austerity as the standard method of tourism, transport, etc.) have stagnated or risen coping with the first two is bound to aggravate only slightly. In 1979 the trade deficit was up the third and tends to depress growth rates and from about $4.3 billion in 1977 and 1978 to $6.4 living standards, which is harder to accept in billion (with one-third of the increase blamed on poor than in richer countries. (But even here 14/DI R-3-'80

Yugoslavia has in the past had one advantage-- mutual accusations of unfairness among nation- no contested elections to threaten the political alities with already radically different levels of survival of that impose unpopular wealth and development and different priorities "belt-tightening" measures.) And many of them can easily become acute. have similar problems of "intermediate develop- Less developed regions like Kosovo and Mon- ment" to bedevil strategies for coping, such as tenegro, for example, have ambitious develop- industries excessively dependent on imported raw ment plans that are generally more sensible than and other materials and technology, a legacy of they used to be, but that must depend on richer injudicious past investments and "political fac- regions for their financing. Richer regions (and tories," and in general an industrial base that is hence nations) have their own problems with in crying need of a costly and long-term restruc- "stabilization," and their own prejudices as well turing for which there is neither money nor time. as priorities. It will be hard to avoid the appear- Two things complicate matters for the Yugo- ance, if not the reality, of an inequitable distribu- slavs and make them in some degree different tion of hardships. If "collective leaderships" do and at least slightly less likely to solve their prob- not cope and tensions as well as problems mount, lems without Tito there to enforce tough the road will lead through "destabilization," measures with his authority. political as well as economic, toward either collapse or an imposed solution. One is the special nature of the "self-manage- ment" system, which diffuses economic (even As long as the Party, with the Army and the more than political)responses and decision- Security Service as its extensions, continues to making in such a way that macro-economic have the latent powers of coercion and suscepti- policies are hard to devise and harder to imple- bility to recentralization that it clearly still ment. Because the economic powers of central or possesses, an imposed solution is the more likely any governmental authorities are limited, it is of these outcomes. Most would then agree that it hard to know who is responsible and therefore was also the lesser of two evils, both undesired. It answerable for choices, and the alternative Yugo- would probably come about, not through one of slav devices for macro-economic decision- the dramatic coups anticipated in most "scenar- making, known as "self-management agree- ios," but through small and gradual steps, each ments" and "social contracts," involve many designed to cope with a particular economic or actors with diverse and local interests, are slow if political problem or sector of social unrest that sometimes sure, and further distort an otherwise seemed to be reaching threatening proportions. already imperfect market. Despite enormous There is much in both recent and more remote frustrations, the Yugoslavs live with this system, historical traditions and in the traditional and even give it their support, because on political ethos of the Yugoslav peoples that can balance it still works better, in the sense of satis- generate receptivity to such a process and many fying their wants and giving them freedom of per- in or on the margins of political life who in their sonal choice, than the alternatives, especially of hearts would welcome it. It is only a little less true an "Eastern" socialist variety. That, however, is a than it was 11 years ago, when a then leading qualified kind of allegiance. Serbian political figure made the point in a not- The second and potentially more dangerous for-attribution interview, that "We cannot say complication derives from Yugoslavia's national that we do not have the preconditions for a heterogeneity, its history of mutual suspicions Stalinism in this society...we could still go and conflicts among the nationalities, and differ- backward. This in turn could happen with or ences in their economic interests. This last was without the 'fraternal assistance' from the Soviet hard enough to control when the pie was growing Union that is part of so many after-Tito rapidly and conflicts were primarily about 'scenarios,' which would come through subtle equitable shares of larger slices. Now, however, in economic and political pressures rather than the the present economic circumstances the post- military intervention these scenarios usually Tito leadership agrees (and agreed and began to anticipate." act before Tito's death) that the watchword must There is also, however, much and perhaps be "stabilization"meaning austerity in invest- more that would resist such a trend. Primary ments, in personal incomes and consumption, in among these factors are the large numbers of imports, etc. In a scramble for pieces of a shrink- individuals, social strata, and institutionalized ing pie, hard enough in any society, conflicts and interests with a stake in Yugoslavia more or less DIR-3-'80/15

as it isgenuinely independent and nonaligned, "Oh yes, I love to travel and make such a trip united, with open frontiers and an odd system in every year." which an uneasy mix of authoritarian and "plu- She is, it transpired, a middle-rank economist ralistic" elements is on balance more open to with a middle-rank professional income working participation and representation, and more toler- for Jugopetrol, Yugoslavia's second largest ant of dissent and individualism, than most in petroleum company, in the division concerned the contemporary world, especially to the east with internal distribution of revenues. These have and south of their country. not suffered noticeably from increasing oil costs, she said. On March 1, 1980, President Tito lay dying in Before she left to take two daffodils carefully a Ljubljana hospital. The "business lunch" res- wrapped in tissue paper to a sick friend she gave taurant in central Belgrade was as usual, even on me her office telephone number: a Saturday, full. A woman of uncertain age, by "I should like to talk some more about her appearance clearly a middle-class profes- America and your impressions of Yugoslavia. sional, asked permission to share my table, as is But next time we should speak in English, customary in Central Europe. Something in my because I should like to keep in practice for my dress, appearance, or mannerisms gave me away: next trip." "You are not Yugoslav?" We did not speak of politics or the "after Tito" "No, I am an American." question. It was clear, however, that she, like most in the restaurant and indeed most other "Ah, a wonderful and beautiful country. I have reason to wish that Yugo- visited it. New York, Washington, Philadelphia, Yugoslavs, had good didn't slavia will not become too different a place and Florida, Chicago, California, Hawaii...I after Tito. like New York, it is too big, dirty, full of tension, system but California... !" In official circles that feeling, the reasons for it, and a number of other factors are called "sta- "You were there on business?" bility." "Oh no, I was a tourist. It's not so very expen- sive, you kno.w, with group fares, only about (July 1980) $1,000 for the trip." "Which state," intending to mean which of the U.S. states, "did you like best?" "Actually," interpreting the question to mean which country, " and especially Bali. The Bahamas are also beautiful, but there is not much culture." "You travel a lot then?" 16/DIR-3-'80

NOTES 1. Hirohito of Japan and of are venia's representative when Kardelj died in February 1979) both still alive and active, but it would be hard to argue will be eligible for reelection then, since all the rest are in that their roles and "place in history" earn them a spot on the second of their permitted two terms. this particular list. 5. This was confirmed by a Tanjug (official news agency) 2. "After Tito,in Europe, May-June 1980. dispatch of June 3 that objected to NIN's use of the term "vacated" as implying that a new President definitely would 3. An expert on state-church relations in Yugoslavia who be elected at the next Congress (cf. Slobodan Stankovi's analyzed the telegrams of condolence sent by religious analysis of the NIN-Tanjug exchange and the June 12 leaders when Tito died described them in a letter to this meeting in Radio Free Europe's RAD Background observer as "fulsome from the Moslems, enthusiastic from Reports nos. 137 and 148, June 10 and 18, 1980). It is also the Bosnian Franciscans, cool but courteous from the Arch- worth noting that under the current statute the LCE bishop of Zagreb, somewhat epic from Patriarch German [of President is not actually one of the specified 23 members the ], while the head of the of the Party Presidency or 165 members of the Central Macedonian Orthodox Church naturally gives thanks for Committee. The Statutes merely provide that, separately the existence of his church." elected at a Federal Party Congress, he may convene and preside over meetings of either of these bodies. This 4. The order of rotation for Vice-President as set forth in somewhat curious arrangement suggests that the Article 66 of the Presidency' s Rules of Procedure (published Statutes' authors may have intended that the office of in the Slubeni list Gazette/SFRJ of March 7, President of the Party should be almost as easily and 1975), which is now to apply to the President as well, is as almost as automatically dispensable as that of the Presi- follows (with present incumbents in parentheses): Mace dent of the Republic. donia (Kolievski, born 1914), Bosnia-Herzegovina (Mija- tovi, b. 1913), (Kraigher, b. 1914), Serbia(Petar 6. A point also made, and probably somewhat exagger- Stambolic, b. 1912), Croatia (Bakari, b. 1912), ated, in a recent article by , "Succession (Vidoje arkovi, b. 1927), AP Vojvodina (Doronjski, b. and Stability in Yugoslavia,in the Journal of Interna- 1919), and AP Kosovo (, b. 1916). The 1979-80 tional Affairs,Vol. 32, No. 2 (Fall/Winter 1978), pp. 223- incumbency of Kolievski represented the beginning of the 238, 1978. Cf. also A. Ross Johnson, "Yugoslavia: the second round since this order was established (Krste Non-Leninist Succession" (Rand Paper Series, P-6442, Crvenkovski of Macedonia was the first Vice-President of January 1980). the then 23-member State Presidency, in 1971-72). If it is 7. Cited in note 2 above. maintained, Kraigher will be succeeded by Stambolig of Serbia in May 1982 and by Bakari of Croatia in May 1983. 8. For a more complete survey (in places excessively opti- Then the current 5-year term of the present Presidency mistic?), see the 0 ECD' s annual Survey of Yugoslavia, pub- expires and new members should be elected; of the present lished in , from which these and the following incumbents only Kraigher (who replaced Kardelj as Slo- statistics are taken.

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