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Cheil Industries (001300 KS) and Materials August 4, 2011 Company Report Electronic parts Cheil Industries (001300 KS) and materials Despite current slump, outlook to gradually improve Will Cho +822-768-4306 [email protected] Trim TP to W160,000; Maintain Buy call We reiterate our Buy call on Cheil Industries but trim our target price by 5.9% to W160,000. We are cutting our target price, as: 1) the number of shares outstanding for Cheil should increase by 4.9% following the companyÊs share-swap acquisition of its former subsidiary Ace Digitech, and 2) the value of its investment securities was eroded by a recent share pullback and the exclusion of Ace Digitech shares. We are adjusting up our 2011F EPS by 2.9% to reflect gains on the disposal of CheilÊs equity stake in Ace Digitech, while maintaining our 2012F EPS. 2Q Review: Operating profit down 38.9% QoQ to W62.8bn Buy (Maintain) Cheil Industries reported weak 2Q11 results, affected by: 1) contraction in IT Target Price (12M, W) 160,000 demand and 2) increased prices for raw materials (for use in chemicals). Revenues Share Price (11/08/03,W) 112,500 in 2Q hit a historic high of W1.48tr (up 5.8% QoQ; up 11.5% YoY) on the back of Expected Return (%) 42.2 price hikes and market share gains. However, operating profit fell short of our EPS Growth (11F, %) 18.8 estimate of W72.7bn, coming in at W62.8bn (down 38.9% QoQ; down 38.9% Market EPS Growth (11F, %) 6.1 YoY). P/E(11F, x) 17.6 Market P/E(11F, x) 11.0 Despite the solid performance of the semiconductor patterning materials business, KOSPI 2,066.26 operating profit at the electronic chemical materials (ECM) division shrank 26.1% Market Cap (Wbn) 5,625 QoQ to W26.9bn (OP margin of 6.6%) due to the sluggishness of the display film Shares Outstanding (mn) 50 unit. The chemicals divisionÊs operating profit declined 35.3% QoQ to W23bn (OP Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 487 margin of 3.5%) because price hikes were limited (amid the IT market slump). The Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 62 fashion division also saw its operating profit deteriorate 61.2% QoQ to W11.1bn Dividend Yield (11F, %) 0.7 Free Float (%) 88.3 (OP margin of 2.8%), hurt by marketing expenses (related to its flagship brand 52-Week Low 87,800 Bean Pole as well as new brands) and an inventory valuation loss (W5bn). 52-Week High 139,500 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1.1 2H Outlook: Gradual pickup in earnings and progress of new businesses Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %,SD) 2.4 Although seasonal demand is likely to weaken YoY in 3Q11, we project CheilÊs Foreign Ownership (%) 26.3 earnings to pick up from its lackluster 2Q results. The ABS spread, which has been Major Shareholder(s) Samsung Card et al. (7.79) a major culprit for earnings erosion, started improving from end-July, and a National Pension Service (7.77) recovery in demand for electronic appliance should enable the company to raise its Capital Research and Management chemical prices starting in August. CheilÊs 3Q revenues are forecast to climb 3.2% Company(CRMC) et al. (5.43) QoQ to W1.53tr, while its operating profit is projected to leap 109.6% QoQ to Price Performance W131.7bn (OP margin of 8.6%) thanks to gains (W40bn) on the disposal of its (%) 1M 6M 12M equity-method investment in Ace Digitech. Absolute -14.1 -5.5 20.1 Relative -11.3 -5.2 4.7 § Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price 160 KOSPI (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 140 12/09 4,406 253 5.7 120 2,397 390 329 6.7 23.6 1.5 8.4 12/10 5,121 335 6.5 270 5,395 474 147 11.4 20.6 2.0 12.4 120 12/11F 6,026 396 6.6 327 6,409 486 -239 11.3 17.6 2.0 12.9 100 12/12F 6,893 540 7.8 428 8,398 723 -11 13.1 13.4 1.7 8.8 80 12/13F 8,174 726 8.9 575 11,265 943 294 15.2 10.0 1.5 6.6 60 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests 40 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates 7/10 11/10 3/11 7/11 Please read carefully important disclosures at the end of this report. August 4, 2011 Cheil Industries Despite flagging IT demand, we believe investorsÊ focus should now turn to the companyÊs smooth progress in new business areas. 1) The TV-use polarizer business is showing stable sales volume growth, with production yield of 90%. 2) The company is likely to roll out AMOLED materials in end-3Q as planned. 3) The semiconductor patterning materials business delivered improvements in both revenue and operating profit even in 2Q. 4) And solar cell paste sales are forecast to grow more than tenfold (YoY) to W60bn this year thanks to a diversified customer base. Table 1. Cheil IndustriesÊ earnings forecasts (on a K-IFRS consolidated basis) (Wbn, %) 1Q11 2Q11P 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 2010 2011F 2012F Revenues 1,400 1,481 1,528 1,618 1,546 1,699 1,780 1,868 5,113 6,026 6,893 Chemical 621 650 677 650 647 707 786 739 2,267 2,599 2,879 Electronic material 384 406 485 486 483 541 606 617 1,413 1,762 2,247 Fashion 377 397 335 470 398 422 357 500 1,353 1,578 1,676 Others 18 27 31 12 19 28 32 12 80 88 91 Operating Profit 103 63 132 99 132 129 153 126 330 396 540 * Adjusted OP 84 60 92 97 115 127 151 124 334 329 516 Chemical 36 23 34 31 47 53 51 44 166 123 195 Electronic material 36 27 76 39 52 57 73 63 104 178 245 Fashion 29 11 21 28 31 18 27 18 59 88 94 OP margin 7.3 4.2 8.6 6.1 8.5 7.6 8.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 7.8 * Adjusted OP margin 6.0 4.1 6.0 6.0 7.4 7.5 8.5 6.6 6.5 5.5 7.5 Chemical 5.7 3.5 5.0 4.8 7.2 7.5 6.5 5.9 7.3 4.7 6.8 Electronic material 9.5 6.6 15.7 8.0 10.8 10.5 12.0 10.2 7.4 10.1 10.9 Fashion 7.6 2.8 6.2 5.9 7.9 4.2 7.6 3.6 4.3 5.6 5.6 Pretax income 110 55 126 89 126 121 144 116 310 380 507 Net profit 92 54 106 76 107 103 122 99 254 328 431 RP margin 7.8 3.7 8.2 5.5 8.2 7.1 8.1 6.2 6.1 6.3 7.4 NP margin 6.5 3.7 7.0 4.7 6.9 6.0 6.9 5.3 5.0 5.4 6.2 Growth (QoQ/YoY) Revenues 5.6 5.8 3.2 5.9 -4.5 9.9 4.8 4.9 20.0 17.9 14.4 Chemical 11.4 4.7 4.1 -4.0 -0.6 9.4 11.1 -6.0 24.1 14.6 10.8 Electronic material 8.9 5.9 19.3 0.3 -0.8 12.2 11.9 1.8 16.8 24.7 27.5 Fashion -6.9 5.3 -15.6 40.3 -15.2 5.9 -15.4 40.1 18.6 16.6 6.2 Others 67.9 49.2 12.7 -61.5 59.5 49.2 12.7 -61.5 -4.0 10.8 3.3 Operating Profit 122.4 -38.9 109.6 -25.1 33.5 -1.8 18.3 -17.7 25.0 20.0 36.3 Chemical 18.6 -35.3 46.2 -7.8 49.9 14.3 -3.3 -15.2 35.0 -25.8 58.1 Electronic material 1,002.1 -26.1 183.4 -49.2 34.8 8.9 28.2 -13.5 9.3 71.4 37.5 Fashion 124.2 -61.2 85.4 33.3 13.6 -43.4 53.5 -34.7 12.3 50.3 6.7 Pretax income 148.9 -49.4 126.9 -29.5 42.2 -4.4 19.3 -19.3 97.6 22.5 33.5 Net profit 165.5 -40.6 95.5 -29.1 41.8 -4.3 19.2 -19.3 97.9 29.0 31.2 * Note: Adjusted OP refers to operating profit excluding other operating gains and losses, Source: Daewoo Securities Research Figure 1. ECM divisionÊs earnings trend and forecast Figure 2. Chemicals divisionÊs earnings trend and forecast (Wbn) (%) (Wbn)ABS (L) PS (L) (%) 750 Polarizer (L) Display (L) 20 800 EP (L) Others (L) 10 Semiconductor (L) OP margin (R) OP margin (R) 600 16 640 8 450 12 480 6 300 8 320 4 150 4 160 2 0 0 0 0 07 08 09 10 11F 12F 07 08 09 10 11F 12F Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 4, 2011 Cheil Industries 2H Outlook: Gradual pickup in earnings and progress of new businesses 3Q11 Outlook: Although 3Q seasonal demand will likely weaken YoY due to a worsening macroeconomic Revenues of W1.53r and environment, Cheil IndustriesÊ earnings should bottom out after 2Q11.
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