Eleven Years of Monitoring in the Israel River Watershed

Kirsten Nelson Biologist NHDES

1 Israel River Water Temperature Monitoring

• 2007 EPA equipment loan to Israel River Volunteer Monitoring Group • Concerns about water temperature & fish habitat • Sites selected in major tributaries and strategic points in Israel River • June - October • 15 sites • > 400,000+ data points collected

2 Israel River Water Temperature Monitoring

• White Mountains to Connecticut River

• No dams

• ~7 % development in entire watershed

(NLCD 2011)

3 Israel Sites

Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.): Stag Hollow Brook (06-, 04-, 03-, 02-SGB) Israel River (20-ISR) Alder Brook (01-ALB) Mill Brook (02-MLL)

Medium Drainage Area (20 – 70 sq. mi.): Israel River (14-, 16-, 17-, 19-ISR) Stalbird Brook (01-STL) Otter Brook (00M-OTT)

Large Drainage Area (> 100 sq. mi.): Israel River (02-, 08-ISR) 4 Israel Sites

Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.): Stag Hollow Brook (02-SGB) Israel River (20-ISR) Alder Brook (01-ALB)

Medium Drainage Area (20 – 70 sq. mi.): Israel River (14-, 16-, 17-, 19-ISR) Stalbird Brook (01-STL) Otter Brook (00M-OTT)

Large Drainage Area (> 100 sq. mi.): Israel River (08-ISR) 5 New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Water Monitoring Strategy

January 2014

• Reporting on waterbody status and trend • Establishing, reviewing, and revising water quality standards • Determining water quality standards attainment • Identifying impaired waters • Identifying causes and sources of water quality impairments • Supporting the implementation of water management programs • Supporting the evaluation of program effectiveness

6 New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Water Monitoring Strategy

January 2014

7 New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Water Monitoring Strategy

January 2014

• Reporting on waterbody status and trend

STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE

What is the incidence of increasing, decreasing, and stable trends in maximum water temperatures statewide?

Trend test of the warmest rolling 7-day mean water temperature per year

What is the duration of exceedance of water temperature benchmarks?

Percentage of consecutive days temperature benchmarks are exceeded, as reported by the rolling 7-day mean

8 Temperature Benchmarks

Mean of 7-day maximums - REF

22 75th 19 90th 10th 16 25th

Temperature Mean of mean 13

10 cw tw ww

Coldwater (CW) 18 Transitional (TW) 20 Warmwater (WW) 24

9 New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Water Monitoring Strategy

January 2014

• Reporting on waterbody status and trend

STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE

What is the incidence of increasing, decreasing, and stable trends in maximum water temperatures statewide?

Trend test of the warmest rolling 7-day mean water temperature per year

What is the duration of exceedance of water temperature benchmarks?

Percentage of consecutive days temperature benchmarks are exceeded, as reported by the rolling 7-day mean

Are there other metrics that we should be investigating? Warmest of the Rolling 7-day maximum Coolest of the Rolling 7-day minimum Individual Days Over Benchmarks

10 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

Site Location Years of Logger Stag Hollow Brook Data 02-SGB 10 Israel River 20-ISR 11 Alder Brook 01-ALB 12

11 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

12 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

13 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.): p > 0.05 for all sites

14 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.): p > 0.05 for all sites

15 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

p > 0.05 for 01-ALB & 02-SGB; 20-ISR had 0 days over

16 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

01-ALB p = 0.019

17 Small Drainage Area (< 11 sq. mi.):

18 The changing face of 02-SGB

19 The changing face of 02-SGB

20 The changing face of 02-SGB

21 Medium Drainage Area (20 – 70 sq. mi.):

Years of Site Location Logger Data Israel River 14-ISR 12 16-ISR 11 17-ISR 11 19-ISR 10 Stalbird Brook 01-STL 10 Otter Brook 00M-OTT 10

22 Medium Drainage Area (20 – 70 sq. mi.): p > 0.05 for all sites

23 Medium Drainage Area p > 0.05 for all sites; (20 – 70 sq. mi.): 19-ISR had 0 days over

24 Medium Drainage Area (20 – 70 sq. mi.):

14-ISR (p = 0.047) 16-ISR (p = 0.035)

25 Large Drainage Area (> 100 sq. mi.):

Years of Site Location Logger Data Israel River 08-ISR 12

26 Large Drainage Area (> 100 sq. mi.): p > 0.05

27 Large Drainage Area (> 100 sq. mi.): p > 0.05

28 Large Drainage Area p > 0.05 (> 100 sq. mi.):

29 New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Water Monitoring Strategy

January 2014

• Reporting on waterbody status and trend

STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE

What is the incidence of increasing, decreasing, and stable trends in maximum water temperatures statewide?

Trend test of the warmest rolling 7-day mean water temperature per year

What is the duration of exceedance of water temperature benchmarks?

Percentage of consecutive days temperature benchmarks are exceeded, as reported by the rolling 7-day mean

Are there other metrics that we should be investigating? Warmest of the Rolling 7-day maximum Coolest of the Rolling 7-day minimum Individual Days Over Benchmark

30 STREAM/RIVER WATER TEMPERATURE What is the incidence of increasing, decreasing, and stable trends in maximum water temperatures statewide? No significant trends

What is the duration of exceedance of water temperature benchmarks?

No significant trends

0 – 3% of consecutive days

Are there other metrics that we should be investigating?

No significant trends for min & max 30% had significantly increasing individual days over benchmark

31 All questions lead to more questions….

• Minimum, maximum, days over – Other metrics?

• Data loss • Discharge – Other analyses?

32 All questions lead to more questions….

• Minimum, maximum, days over – Other metrics?

• Data loss • Discharge – Other analyses?

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)

33 What are GAMs?

34 What are GAMs?

A Generalized Linear Model that assumes link functions are additive

Linear predictor not forced to be linear

Smoothing functions, a.k.a. “splines” – flexible, various

A GAMM helps deal with autocorrelation (e.g. time series data)

35 Israel River GAMM

• Daily averages June – September – All sites included (except 02-SGB) – All years • Day of year • Year (Epoch) • Discharge • Site

36 Israel River GAMM

Daily Average Temperature ~ DayOfYear + Epoch + log Discharge + DayOfYear x log Discharge + Site

37 Israel River GAMM

38 Israel River GAMM 2.0

• Monthly averages June – September – All sites included (except 02-SGB) – All years • Day of year • Year (Epoch) • Discharge • Site

39 Israel River GAMM 2.0

Monthly Average Temperature ~ DayOfYear + Epoch + log Discharge + Site

40 Israel River GAMM 2.0

41 Closing Thoughts

• 12 years is a good start – Gaps inevitable – The longer we go, the more valuable the dataset becomes • Data analyses a work in progress – GAMM not as successful as hoped

42 Questions?

Contact Info: Kirsten Nelson Biologist [email protected] (603) 271 - 1152

Thanks to Dave Neils, Ted Walsh, Andy Chapman, Andrea Bejtlich, Amanda Bridge,& more

43 Fish IBI 11 Electrofishing events from 1998 to 2018 • 3 Coldwater (CW) • 7 Transitional (TW) • 1 Warmwater (WW)

NH has coldwater and transitional water fish IBIs, warmwater tbd

100% of Coldwater sites met Coldwater IBI

57% of Transitional sites meet Transitional IBI

Warmwater site met neither IBI 90% Confidence Interval

44 Macroinvertebrate NMDS 18 Rock basket collections from 1998 to 2016 • 2 Coldwater Sites(CW) • 1 year • 2 years • 2 Transitional Sites(TW) • 2 years • 8 years • 1 Warmwater site(WW) • 5 years

• Exclude species with < 20 counted individuals across sites

90% Confidence Interval