Food Security Bulletin - 21

United Nations World Food Programme FS Bulletin, November 2008 Food Security Monitoring and Analysis System Issue 21

Highlights ƒ Over the period July to September 2008, the number of people highly and severely food insecure increased by about 50% compared to the previous quarter due to severe flooding in the East and Western Terai districts, roads obstruction because of incessant rainfall and landslides, rise in food prices and decreased production of maize and other local crops.

ƒ The food security situation in the flood affected districts of Eastern and Western Terai remains precarious, requiring close monitoring, while in the majority of other districts the food security situation is likely to improve in November-December due to harvesting of the paddy crop.

ƒ Decreased maize and paddy production in some districts may indicate a deteriorating food insecurity situation from January onwards.

this period. However, there is an could be achieved through the provision Overview expectation of deteriorating food security of return packages consisting of food Mid and Far-Western from January onwards as in most of the and other essentials as well as A considerable improvement in food Hill and Mountain districts excessive agriculture support to restore people’s security was observed in some Hill rainfall, floods, landslides, strong wind, livelihoods. districts such as Jajarkot, Bajura, and pest diseases have badly affected In the Western Terai, a recent rapid Dailekh, Rukum, Baitadi, and Darchula. maize production and consequently assessment conducted by WFP in These districts were severely or highly reduced food stocks much below what is November, revealed that the food food insecure during April - July 2008 normally expected during this time of the security situation is still critical in because of heavy loss in winter crops, year. The situation could be even worse Kanchanpur and Kailali where 137,000 rise in market prices and lack of in some districts where excessive rainfall people are reported to be severely or employment opportunities. The and pests have decreased paddy crop highly food insecure (pages 7-11 situation has improved due to WFP’s production by about 30-50%. provide an overview of the current food assistance in some areas and the Central and Eastern Nepal situation). Although in theses areas the harvesting of summer crops this August. The Central and Eastern districts covered majority of displaced people could The food security situation has by FSMAS were generally found to be return to their land, support is still deteriorated or has remained mostly food secure during the period July until required to assist the rehabilitation of unchanged in many VDCs in the September and the outlook for people’s livelihoods in the most affected Mountains where around 200,000 people November-December is generally stable. communities. in Kalikot, Achham, Bajhang, Mugu, Floods in Southeast – Southwest Humla and Dolpa continue to be Nepal This bulletin provides the latest update on severely or highly food insecure. This During the months of August and the food security situation in 37 districts, condition has been caused by a variety September 2008, the South East and covered by the field surveillance system of of factors including: obstruction of roads South West of Nepal incurred significant the WFP Food Security Monitoring and due to rain and landslides, food price damage and destruction through Analysis System (FSMAS) using the food increases, lower production of local separate incidents of severe flooding. security phase classification methodology. crops (Chinu and millet), closing of the The Eastern Terai districts of Sunsari and Map 1 and 2 show the food security Tibetan border across which small trades Saptari and the Western Terai districts of situation for July-September and its likely are generally conducted, and a fall in Kanchanpur, Kailali and Bardiya were evolution during the period November- income levels from the sale of particularly affected. The initial December. Pages 12 to 18 provide a Yarsagumba. assessment of food security carried out detailed description of food security for The overall food security situation is in the framework of the Multi-Agency most districts ranked according to their 1 likely to improve in many of these Koshi River Flood Impact Assessment in overall phase classification. Table 3 on districts during November-December due September indicated a severe decline in page 19 gives detailed estimates of the to summer crop harvests (particularly household food security. This number of highly and severely food paddy), availability of more employment significantly improved with the arrival of insecure populations. Pages 5-6 provide opportunities and improved supply of humanitarian food assistance, which has an overview of selected household food food in markets. WFP food for assets will been provided to 64,000 flood- security indicators in their respective food play a significant role in improving affected/displaced people over the last security phase classifications. short-term food security as well as three months. Longer-term food security generating employment opportunities for 1 Multi-Agency Flood Impact Assessment Koshi many vulnerable communities during River Flood – Nepal , UN World Food Programme Nepal, September 2008

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Food Security Bulletin

Food Security Phase Classification

The Food Security Phase Classification promoting the establishment of district- Development Executive Committee acts as methodology is used by WFP FSMAS to based food security forums to enable a FSN). The FSMAS will be expanded to conduct food security situation analysis at better verification of food security cover five new districts (Sankhuwasabha, VDCs level and to prepare quarterly food information and classification and decision Taplejung, Panchthar, Rautaha and security phase classification maps. The making by major local agencies. Okhaldunga) in the Eastern region and methodology has been strengthened three districts in the West (Myagdi, during March-June 2008 and a description So far, 29 Food Security Networks (FSNs) Baglung, Parbat). of its major components has been have been set up and another 22 should reported in the Food Security Bulletin No. be established before March 2009 (in 20. As part of the methodology, WFP is some districts the District Agriculture

Migration as a coping strategy in times of crises

Box 1 "Migration as a Coping Strategy in Times of Crisis in Nepal, Implications for WFP Responses"

WFP, with technical input from UNICEF and UN/AIDS, has completed its study on migration as a coping strategy in times of crisis. The study is based on a series of surveys and focus group discussions conducted among households, recently returned migrants, and migrants traveling through main crossings along the border with India.

The study explores the phenomenon of migration. In particular, it looks at its role among poor, rural and often food insecure communities in the Far- and Mid-Western Hills of Nepal, for whom migration to India has become an accepted and widely adopted component of their livelihood strategy. The report contains the results of an extensive survey of migrants as well as provides background information on of a range of factors related to migration.

The report will be released in December during a seminar on the role of migration in Nepal.

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Food Security Bulletin

Household Food Security: Selected Indicators

VULNERABILITY The WFP FSMAS collected data from around 1100 households in 34 districts during July-September 2008 to determine the household food security. Households were randomly selected by WFP Field Monitors based on the VDC food security phase classification2.

In the reported period, families living in VDCs classified as highly and severely food insecure (phase 3 and 4) reported drought/irregular rains and food price increases as the major causes of food shortages. Respectively 62% and 88% haven’t recovered at all from these shocks. In general, more than 50% of the households in the sample reported to have experienced a food shortage and almost 50% asserted that the food shortage was more severe than last year.

This situation is further confirmed by the Coping Strategies

Index (CSI) calculated for the different food security groups. The CSI combines both the frequency and severity of coping Graph 1 – coping strategies for highly and severely food insecure households strategies adopted by the households faced with a shortfall in food and can be considered as a relatively simple indicator of household food security. The CSI is calculated by combining different coping strategies. The different strategies are ‘weighted’ i.e. multiplied by a weight that reflects their severity. More severe strategies receive a higher weighting (such as selling of land and agricultural assets, days without eating, begging, etc…) and less severe ones are given a lower weighting (e.g. eating less preferred food, spending savings on food, etc...).

The average value of the CSI increases for households in phase 1 to phase 4. For households in phase 1 it is 20, in phase 2 it is 21, and in phase 3 and 4 it is 30 and 45 respectively. Although a reference value for Nepal has not been calculated, the trend shows unambiguously that households with a score of 20 are more food secure than the households with a score of 45 and this corresponds with the food security phase classifications.

Graph 1 displays the coping strategies most frequently adopted by households in phase 3 and 4 when availability/access to food becomes a problem. More sustainable coping mechanisms are Graph 2 – Household food sufficiency most frequently applied, but percentage wise, households in phase 4 use more irreversible coping strategies (selling FOOD ACCESS agricultural and household assets etc.), than those in phase 3. The ability to acquire sufficient quality and quantity of food to meet all household members’ nutritional requirements is depicted in graph 3. Households in the different food security FOOD AVAILBILITY phases have been classified into three food consumption groups An indication of household food availability is given by the (‘acceptable’, ‘borderline’ and ‘poor’) according to the diversity of available stock of cereals at the household level and the food the diet and consumption frequency4 using the Food 3 sufficiency period that these stocks will provide. Consumption Score (FCS). This shows that almost 60% of Graph 2 shows that families in phase 3 and 4 have stocks that households in phase 4 and in phase 3 have a poor consumption will last less than 1 month. In comparison, families in phase 1 pattern, with very worrying consequences of malnutrition. have sufficient stocks for almost 2.5 months.

2 The sample frame for this cycle included around 540 households in food secure areas (phase 1), 340 in moderately food insecure areas (phase 2), 140 in highly food insecure areas and 50 in severely food insecure areas. Therefore the data have to be considered as indicative only and are not meant to be representative, particularly for phase 3 and 4 areas. 3 Food sufficiency is calculated considering a minimum intake requirement of 500g/person/day and average household’s size of 6.6 persons. 4 Internationally agreed thresholds have been used for this purpose

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Graph 3

Graph 4 - Percentage of households not consuming some food items. The discrepancy in food consumption among the households in different food security phases is further detailed in Graph 4, where the percentage of households in phase 3 and 4 not consuming some of the major food groups is substantially higher than for the households in phase 2 and 1.

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Food Security Bulletin

The Food Security Situation in the Flood-Affected Districts in the Far- and Mid-Western Regions (update Nov 08)

BARDIYA, KANCHANPUR AND KAILALI

A post flood assessment was undertaken by WFP in the Mid- Highly food Severly food insecure insecure (starting Total and Far-Western Regions in districts that were worst (acute food and SNDistrict VDCs (wards) affecting livelihood Population at livelihood crisis) affected by the floods during the third week of September assets) Risk 2008. Phase 3 Phase 4 1 Bardiya Daulatpur (ward 9) 130 Manau (ward 1, 9) 750 Two WFP teams conducted field visits and focus group Bhimapur (ward 9,8) 280 discussions during 3 to 7 November 2008 in Bardiya, KhairiChandapur (ward 1, 7) 1,380 Gulariyan municipality (ward 2, 12) 2,600 Kanchanpur and Kailali. The teams utilized available data Bardiya Total 5,140 5,140 from the Government and assessments prepared by other 2 Kailali (4) 780 Hasuliya(1,2,3, 5, 6,7) 2,109 agencies and adopted the Food Security Phase Classification (9) 980 Ratanpur(2) 455 Methodology to assess the food security situation. The Ratanpur(7,8,9) 2,220 information was shared and verified during Food Security (4,6) 3,660 Khailad(1,4,6) 1,155 Networks (FSNs) meetings in Kanchanpur and Kailali and a (1-9) 12,306 District Disaster Relief Committee (DDRC) meeting in (5,7,9) 1,907 Bhajani(3,4) 1,362 Bardiya. (2,4,6,7,8) 2,574 Pawera(3,7) 1,446 The food security situation looks critical in Kailali and Narayanpur(7,9) 1,440 Narayanpur(1,2,3,4,9) 3,890 Kanchanpur where 137,000 people are estimated to be Dhansinghpur(7,9) 1,842 severely and highly food insecure with evidence that the Dhansinghpur(2,4,5,6) 1,444 Teekapur(2,3) 2,764 situation may further deteriorate over the coming months. Phulbari(1 Ke-gaun) 480 Phulbari(3) 240 In Bardiya, around 5,000 people are still highly food (1,2,3,6,7) 1,950 Urma(2,7) 1,120 insecure. They are mostly landless and/or people formerly Beladevipur(1) 780 working under the traditional system of bonded labour Joshipur(3) 1,170 Joshipur(3) 864 (Kamaiyas). Flood affected families in two of the worst (1 Kailashpur)) 1,230 affected VDCs are reestablishing their livelihood and areas Thapapur(6,7,9) 2,270 (1,6) 784 classified as moderately food insecure are likely to (3) 539 (8,9) 931 experience an improvement in the food security situation in Ramshikharjhala(6) 500 the months to come. The other VDCs of Bardiya are Geta(4,6) 483 Malakheri(3) 628 currently food secure as families generally possess larger Godavari(2,9) 1,176 and more fertile agricultural plots on higher ground or Kailali Total 23,161 34,318 57,479 3 Kanchanpur Shankarpur (1-8) further away from the river beds. They were therefore only Shankrpur(9) marginally affected by the floods. In addition, locals still Rauteli Bichawa (7,8) Rauteli Bichawa (9) have food stocks from last year’s paddy production and (1,3,4,6,8) Dekhatbhuli (2,7,9) winter crops, run small business, sell livestock and cash Parashan (7,8,9) crops. Good rice production together with the other Shripur (1,2) Shripur (8,9) livelihood strategies of this population will contribute to Krishnapur (2,4,6) keeping these VDCs generally food secure. Krishnapur (1) Tribhuvanbasti (6,9) Baisi Bichawa(3) Data still not available per Table 1 details the number of highly and severely food Baisi Bichawa(9) VDCs/wards levels insecure people in these three districts. Maps on pages 8, 9 Mahendranagar mun.(11,12,13) Mahendranagar mun.(2,10,15,18,19 and 10 provide details on the current food security phase (8,9) classification in these three districts. The table on page 11 (1,2,5) Rampur Bilasipur (5,6,7) provides further information of food security by district. (3) Suda(5,6) Pipladi(3) (7,8,5) Kalika (Puraina basti, Amraiya) Laxmipur(1,2,4) Daiji(4,9) Kanchanpur Total 48,000 32,000 80,000 Grand Total 76,301 66,318 142,619

Table 1 – Number of highly and severely food insecure people in Bardiya, Kanchanpur, Kailali (November 2008)

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Table 2 – Detailed information on the food security situation of Bardiya, Kanchanpur and Kailali (November 2008)

Severely Food Insecure VDCs

Immediate/Underlying Districts Situation report Outlook (Nov-Dec 2008) causes ( no change à improving Ä deteriorating)

An estimated 34,000 people are Floods washed away crops facing severe food insecurity with causing losses as high as 60 to As there is no food stock, households will households having little or no food 100%. Much of the paddy field have to depend on food assistance. The stocks. Out-migration has is not usable due to excessive fertility of most of the land was badly Kailali increased by more than 50% and sedimentation. No sources of  affected by river sedimentation and this will children are reportedly dropping alternative income are currently likely reduce future crop production. out of school in order to earn available. income to buy food. The crop loss was more than As there is no food stock, households will People in various wards of 9 VDCs 60% due to flooding. Much of have to depend on food assistance. The and one municipality are severely the paddy field is not usable due fertility of most of the land was badly Kanchanpur food insecure. Households have to sedimentation. No sources of  affected by river sedimentation and this will little or no food stocks available. alternative income are currently likely reduce future crop production. available. Highly Food Insecure VDCs

Around 5,000 people are still The fertility of most of the land was badly highly food insecure in 5 VDCs of A large percentages of wards affected by river sedimentation, and seed the western area in the district. inhabitants are freed Kamaiyas stocks have been destroyed This will The already limited food stock was and landless people living in reduce future crop production. Rice washed away by the flood, lowlands along the river and/or straw, which is normally used as animal together with vegetable crops that with small agricultural plots. The fodder, has been lost which could are normally sold by locals. Some average family size is large. Maize reduce animal production. Agriculture Bardiya people engage in daily agricultural production was decreased by  employment opportunities will be wage labor for paddy harvesting around 70% due to earlier heavy scarce in the neighboring VDCs. Locals but the wage doesn’t fulfill families rainfall. Paddy production is will be forced to borrow food/buy food needs. People are therefore coping estimated to be reduced by around on credit and the seasonal out- by borrowing food and money, 40% as parts of the fields have migration migration to India will selling assets and migrating to been covered by river sand. probably increase. India. These VDCs are likely to experience deteriorating food security because the Floods washed away paddy crops limited food stocks are going to be An estimated 18,715 people in 17 causing losses as high as 40 to depleted in a month or so. Fertility of VDCs are highly food insecure with 60% and covered part of the plots Kailali land has been affected by river very little household food stock. with sediments. No sources of Ä sediments and there are no signs of alternative income are available. other income opportunities in the coming months. These VDCs are likely to experience deteriorating food security, because the Floods washed away paddy crops limited food stocks are going to be People in 16 VDCs are highly food causing losses as high as 40 to depleted in a month or so. Fertility of insecure with very little household 60% and covered part of the plots Kanchanpur land has been affected by river food stocks. with sediments. No sources of Ä sediments and there are no signs of alternative income are available. other income opportunities in the coming months. Moderately Food Insecure VDCs

People can currently count on 1-2 Paddy harvesting provide household months of food stocks. Income food stocks for around 3 months. Out opportunities are moderate. Some Maize production was reduced by migration to India and vegetables sales households engage in daily around 50-60% due to earlier will enhance their livelihood. agricultural wage labor for paddy heavy rainfall. Paddy production is Bardiya harvesting and in the sale of estimated to be reduced by around à bananas. Locals migrate to India to 20-30% because of flooding. complement the locally available sources of livelihood.

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Food Security Bulletin

District Situation and Outlook5 July-September 2008

Outlook District/VDC Immediate/Underlying (Oct- Remarks on Situation report (Wards)6 causes Dec assigned Outlook 2008)

Severely Food Insecure VDCs

Maize, paddy and millet 9,600 people are severely food harvests will help increase insecure in 3 VDCs with household Winter crop and the last year's household food stocks. food stocks sufficient for about 15 summer crop failed due to pests and However, excessive Chhapre days only; people are depending on hailstorm. Lack of employment rainfall has affected paddy Kalikot Pakha heavy borrowing of food from opportunities, unavailability of main à and the production is PhoiMahadev (w. 5-9) neighboring VDCs. There are limited staples in the markets and high food expected to decrease by food stocks in markets as the road prices contribute to determine about 30%. Remittances is obstructed by flooding/landslides conditions of food insecurity. from out migrants to India from monsoon rain. will enhance people’s livelihood.

Highly Food Insecure VDCs

Atichaur (w.2); Paddy and millet crop harvests will provide (w.6,7,8);Koti 13,900 people are estimated to be Heavy rainfall and landslides la (w.4,8,9); household food stocks for highly food insecure in 7 VDCs, with destroyed 40-50% maize Jagannath another 1-2 months (Nov- household food stocks sufficient for production and badly affected (w.2,3,4); Dec.). With the end of the only 1-2 months. Locals have been paddy and millet crops (production (w.4,6 rainy seasons and of Bajura ,7); driven to adopting a combination of is expected to decrease by more à syndicate strikes, the sustainable and unsustainable coping than 50% and 30% respectively). availability of food in (w.2); strategies (sale of livestock, purchase The price of rice increased by 20- markets should increase. Kuldeumanda on credit and consuming less 40% compared to the same period u(w.8,4);Kaila WFP food assistance will nutritious food). last year and stocks in the markets shmandau further contribute to were limited. (w.2,5,6,7,8); improving local food security. (w.2,5,6) These are remote VDCs with limited and marginal agricultural land. Rising prices and low food Lekhgau stocks in markets have exacerbated 26,700 people are estimated to be Excessive rainfall has an already precarious situation. highly food insecure in 10 VDCs in strongly affected potato Bajhang the central and northern belt with These are remote and isolated production (an estimated less that 1 month of food stocks. VDCs with limited and marginal à decrease of 50%), but Kanda Locals are coping by borrowing agricultural land. Excessive rainfall people can rely on sale of money, purchasing food on credit and damaged Yarsagumba production natural herbs to Surma eating less preferred food. and the fall in its price reduced the supplement their income. income of many households that depend on its sale. High market prices and low markets stocks further worsened the situation. Babala Balanta A good paddy and maize Basti harvest, together with Batulasen 85,400 people in 32 VDCs have These VDCs are located far from improvement of market Bhairabsthan Bhatakatiya depleted their food stocks. They have market centers and employment supply after the rainy Bindhyawasin been driven to adopting opportunities, contributing to the season and more Achham Budhakot unsustainable coping strategies such present situation. Added to this are à humanitarian assistance Devisthan as the selling of livestock and price increases as high as 40%, are likely to improve the Dhakari depending on wild food. An increase low food stocks in markets and food security situation. Dungachalna of traditional out-migration levels has poor crop performance over the WFP food assistance is Hichma been observed. winter. also contributing to Kalekanda Khaptad improving local food Kushkot security. Mashtabandal

5 More information is available on request from WFP-FSMAU and the district secretariats of the Food Security Networks 6 Where appropriate wards have been indicated

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Food Security Bulletin

Nada Nandegada Payal Rahaph Ramarosan Raniban Risidaha Santada Shodasadevi Siudi Soukat Sutar Thanti Toli Turmakhad Warla

Around 11,200 people are highly food à Paddy production will be insecure in 7 VDCs of the western Dhodari decreased by 30-40% due and central area of the district. 1,600 Rajapur to water logging and sand Bhimmapur Daulatpur people were displaced by flooding sedimentation. Recovery Dhodari and hosted in 8 shelters for 1-5 days. Incessant heavy rainfall from 19 to from floods will be Bardiya Gulariya Flooding caused loss of food stocks 21 September caused the Bheri and different depending on the Khairichanda and livestock. Agricultural land near Karnali rivers, as well as small location. Landless people npur rivers and streams have been tributaries, to flood surrounding  and people formerly Manau damaged by sediments. In some areas. Bhimmap working under a Rajapur villages seed stocks for winter crops traditional system of ur have been destroyed. People are Daulatpur bonded labour (Kamaiyas) coping by borrowing food/money and , will need assistance in the selling assets. Gulariya short-term. Khairichan danpur Manau

Paddy and maize Heavy rainfall, and road blockade production will improve Dhaulakot Around 5000 people are estimated to from Dhangadi to Darchula household food stocks. Darchula be highly food insecure in 5 VDCs, Eyarkot obstructed the supply of food in Availability of employment with household food stocks almost Guljar the markets. No employment à opportunities and NTFP depleted. opportunities were available. sales will further improve the situation. Baraigaun Chhipra Paddy, millet and Chinu Dandafaya harvests will increase Gothi The production of winter crop was household food stocks for Jair poor greatly reducing food stocks. 1-2 months only (Nov-Dec Kalika 29,100 people are estimated to be Summer crops have just started to 08). Production is being Kharpunath highly food insecure in 17 VDCs, with be harvested. Bad weather affected by excessive Humla Lali household food stocks almost Madana conditions damaged roads, à rainfall and pests depleted. Many people have been Maila obstructed the supply of rice by (estimated reduction by forced to borrow food and money. Melchham NFC and of other food commodities 30-50%). More

Mimi in the markets. No employment employment opportunities Raya Saya(Sama) opportunities were available. and income from sale of ShreeNagar NTFP will be available Shreemastha after the rainy season. Thehe

Narayanpur, Dansinhapur, The meager household Thapapur, food stocks available will Bhajani, The paddy crop was growing well, Estimated 155,000 persons in 15 soon be depleted. Lalbojhi, but due to floods of September 21- VDCs in the southern part of the Households will face , 23, much of the crop was Kailali Joshipur, district are facing high food insecurity difficulty in recovering damaged. Household food stocks Ä Khailad,Ratna with household food stocks almost their damaged/lost assets, were also washed away or pur, Pawera, depleted and crops washed away by and the lack of alternative damaged. No alternative sources of Hasuliya, the floods. employment opportunities Basauti, income were available. will not support people’s Gadariya, Phulbari, livelihoods. Ratnapur

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Food Security Bulletin

32,800 people are highly food insecure in 9 VDCs mostly in the Nanikot north. Household food stocks are Dhoulagoha, Winter crop failed due to drought; sufficient only for about one month; Millet is the primary Khina maize production declined by 30% people are coping by borrowing summer crop is harvested Thirpu, due to damages caused by high money and eating less preferred in late Octover. Paddy will Kalikot Ramnakot winds. Because monsoon rains Badalkot food. à be harvested in November. damaged the Karnali Highway Lalu The harvests will provide reducing the supply of goods to Mehelmudi VDCs in the east, south, and west are households with 2-3 markets, the price of food (w. 1,3,4) generally food secure, and the months of food stocks. Daha (w. 8,9) increased by more than 40%. situation is expected to remain unchanged in the next months as well. The meager harvest of These are VDCs with limited and wheat and buckwheat marginal agricultural land, people expected in mid-October 7,300 people are highly food insecure generally depend on Yarsagumba are likely to decrease by in all of the 7 VDCs in upper Dolpa. and livestock sales mostly in 40-60% each, as the crops More than 30% of households have Tibetan markets. The fall in were affected by drought, Dolpa food in stock for less than a month Yarsagumba price and the closing  strong wind, and pest and stocks in markets were depleted. of the Tibetan border reduced the diseases. The price of People are coping by borrowing food, income of many households by main staples in the money, and consuming less preferred more than 60% compared to last markets is increasing and food. year. Potato production decreased there will be limited by 20-40%. alternative income sources. Millet and paddy production are expected to Winter crop (wheat and barley) 7,200 people are highly food insecure decrease by 40-60%; production decreased by 50% and in 6 VDCs in the north-western part however, the harvest will the summer crop has yet to be of the district. Most of the households provide food stocks Bhie harvested. Market prices increased have depleted their food stocks and sufficient for Nov-Dec. Natharpu by 10-20% as the transportation Mugu Photu very few have stocks for up to 1-2 Market supply and price became difficult due to summer à Jima months; NFC has provided food in are expected to normalize rain. Fall in the price of Ruga some areas, however the supply is at the end of the Yarsagumba, normally sold by Hyanglu not sufficient to meet the needs. monsoon. The food locals, and lack of employment People are coping by borrowing security situation might opportunities reduced the income money and food. deteriorate at the of many households. beginning of January 2009 as food stocks decline.

Paddy production is Pachhawang expected to decline by 30- (3,4, 7-9) 12,100 people in 7 VDCs in the north- 50% and maize production Rank (1-3, 5- western part of the district are highly by more than 50% due to 7) food insecure with household food Lack of employment opportunities strong wind and pests. Wota (4,7) stocks sufficient for less than a at local level and high food prices Rolpa Rangkot (1-3, Household food stocks will month. Locals are coping by caused conditions of food Ä 7,8) be sufficient for less than borrowing money and food, and insecurity. Rangsi (7,9) one month. Remittances selling livestock. The seasonal out- Bhirul / Mirul are not expected to (5-9) migration rate has increased of 10- contribute to people’s Whama (1, 5- 20%. 8) livelihood in the near future.

Moderately Food Insecure VDCs

Summer crop production Limited market food stocks, the is predicted to be Achham Households have 1-2 months of food stocks and are significant rise in market prices, normal, markets supply coping by selling livestock and consuming less the unavailability of employment à should improve and preferred food. opportunities caused conditions of wage employment moderate food insecurity. opportunities are on the rise. These VDCs are traditionally vulnerable, with marginal agricultural land of small extension Seven VDCs in the south-west are classified as and difficult access to markets and moderately food insecure. Household food stocks roads. Limited market food stocks, before maize harvesting in mid-August were almost People will continue the significant rise in market depleted due to poor winter crop production. People relying on remittances prices, and the unavailability of  Baitadi had to rely on remittances from family members in from family members in employment opportunities caused India for buying food in markets. After maize was India. moderate food insecurity. Maize harvested, household food stocks increased. production, which represents the

main crop for these VDCs was good as a result of regular and sufficient rainfall.

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Food Security Bulletin

In few areas crop disease has affected These VDCs are traditionally vulnerable, with limited paddy, so the production and marginal agricultural land. Markets and roads will be reduced by 10- are far and not easily accessible. Households only Maize production was moderate (- 30%. However together Bajura have 1-2 months food stocks but have been 20%) due to frequent heavy à with the harvesting of adopting traditional coping mechanisms. rainfall. millet, overall household The remaining VDCs are all food secure due to good food stocks will increase. maize production that was harvested since mid- Food security will be august. further improved by WFP food assistance.

A predicted moderate paddy and maize production, together with In the eastern and some VDCs in the central region, No wage employment opportunities traditional coping strategies people are coping by selling cash crops and relying à Bajhang are available in this season. such as migration and sale on maize harvested in mid-August. of cash crops will provide sufficient household food stocks for 2-3 months. 11 VDCs in the south are moderately food insecure with households stocks sufficient for 1-2 months Maize was affected by excessive Paddy production is only. People are coping by selling firewood and rainfall, and market price of rice Banke expected to be normal and livestock, and working in markets in Nepal and increased by 20-40%. Because of à will provide food stocks for India. food insecurity, out migration 4-5 months. The remaining VDCs are food secure with a stable increased by around 10-20%. outlook. Paddy production will be decreased by 20-30%. Incessant heavy rainfall from 19 to These are less vulnerable 21 September caused the Bheri and VDCs where households Bardiya Around 3,500 people are moderately food insecure Karnali rivers, as well as small à have larger and more fertile in 8 VDCs in the western area of the district. tributaries, to flood surrounding agricultural lots and other areas. income opportunities. Recovery from floods will therefore be easier. Millet production is expected to be normal. Chamunda, Salleri and Katti VDC are moderately Paddy, the second main food insecure, people are coping by selling livestock Maize production decreased by crop, has been affected by at cheaper prices, and consuming pre-mature crop about 50% due to excessive excessive rainfall and blast (maize). Ä Dailekh rainfall, pest infestation and strong disease. Production is

wind. expected to decrease by The remaining VDCs are generally food secure with around 10-30%. This will a normal outlook. badly affect household food stocks. Harvests of paddy and 9 VDCs are moderately food insecure with limited Limited employment opportunities maize are predicted to be food stocks Darchula and high food prices are the major à normal and are expected to The remaining VDCs are generally food secure with causes of food insecurity. improve household food normal outlook. security. Harvesting of maize and Potato production has decreased by Chinu production is more than 50%. At the beginning 10 VDCs in the central region of the district and 6 expected to be reduced by of August, Pahada VDC Wards No. VDCs in the southern part are moderately food 10-30% due to late and 3 and 4 were hit by floods. 22.50 insecure with 60% of households having food in excessive rainfall. Prices of Ha. of land were washed away and stock for up to Nov-Dec. NFC has been providing 3- main staples are expected 47 households were affected. High 4 Kg of rice per person a month. The food security to remain stable. Income food prices, limited food stocks in  Dolpa situation has significantly improved in Majhfal, opportunities will remain markets, decreases in income from Dunai and Jufal VDCs (highly food insecure during limited as construction and sales of Yarsagumba and the April-June 2008) as a result of WFP food assistance. food assistance activities closing of the Tibetan border, from People are coping by borrowing money, food, and will be reduced as winter where people purchase food, have consuming less preferred food. approaches. resulted in conditions of moderate food insecurity.

The summer crop harvests are predicted to be normal July through mid-September are the most difficult and sufficient for 1-2 Lack of employment opportunities months for these VDCs as household food stocks 7 months. People will rely on and high food prices have resulted à Doti from winter crops are depleted. People cope by purchased food, will have in moderate food insecurity. buying food on credit. employment opportunities and will sell livestock to supplement their income.

7 Banlek, BanjaKakani, Daud, Dahakalikasthan, Khirsain, , , Mudhegau, Satphari, , , , , Ranagau

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Food Security Bulletin

These are traditionally vulnerable VDCs, isolated and with marginal agricultural land. The

8 summer crop harvest is  predicted to be normal to moderate and sufficient for 1-2 months. People will rely on purchased food but roads and markets access remain difficult. Summer crop production is predicted to be poor to Tourism is the main source of very poor due to excessive The VDCs in the western belts are usually food employment in Simikot VDC, but rainfall. Crop harvest will secure during this part of the year. However due to the closing of the Tibetan slightly improve household because of the frequent closing of the Tibetan border, no tourist flow has been food stocks, but if the border, employment and trading opportunities have observed. Stocks of food in markets  Humla employment/trading been reduced. Food security in Simikot VDC is have decreased considerably in the opportunities continue to borderline between phase 2 and 3. district headquarters because of be limited these VDCs will the rainy season. face a deteriorating food

security situation after December. Food prices in the market increased The VDCs on the edge of the districts are Lack of employment by 10-20% because of limited moderately food insecure with more than 30% of opportunities, 30-50% supply after the Karnali Highway households having food stocks for 1-2 months. expected reduction of was blocked because of incessant People are coping by borrowing money/food, and paddy production and 10- rainfall. Cash crops were also Ä Jumla consuming less preferred food. 30% expected reduction of damaged by excessive rainfall. maize and millet production Drop in the price of Yarsagumba The remaining VDCs are generally food secure with will badly affect local food considerably reduced income a normal outlook for next cycle. security. sources of many families. All 9 VDCs in the north are moderately food People have not completely insecure. These areas were highly, and or severely Paddy is the second main recovered from the severe level of food insecure in the previous cycle. The situation crop and production is food insecurity experienced in the has gradually improved due to summer crop harvest expected to be normal. This past months. Again excessive à Jajarkot and WFP food assistance. will help people have rainfall and strong wind have sufficient food stocks for caused a decrease in maize The remaining VDCs are generally food secure with the coming months. production by 10-30%. a normal outlook for next cycle. Households will harvest In five of the northern VDCs, the household food paddy in November but its stock is limited and will likely last for only 1-2 Incessant heavy rainfall from 19 to production is expected to months. 21 September moderately affected be moderate. Paddy stock

these VDCs. Maize harvest was not  will therefore support Kailali The remaining VDCs (except these mentioned very good due to effect of floods, households for only a short above and the 17 flood-affected in the south) are landslides and pest diseases. time, so there will be no generally food secure with a normal outlook for significant improvement in next cycle. household food security. In the north eastern and southern VDCs of Kavre Maize, paddy and millet Kavre, and in the north and western VDCs of Limited employment opportunities harvest together with more Sindhup Sindhupalchowk households have limited food and high food prices have resulted à agricultural employment alchowk stocks. People are coping by borrowing food/money in moderate food insecurity. opportunities will improve and eating less preferred food. overall food security. Small trades in Chinese markets are Millet and Kaguno/Chinu the main livelihood strategy for the will be harvested in Oct- Four VDCs in upper Mugu, and two in the southwest VDCs in upper Mugu. However, the Nov. in upper Mugu; paddy (Pina, and Mangri) are moderately food insecure. drop in Yarsagumba prices and will be harvested in Pina Household food stocks are sufficient for 2-3 closing of the Tibetan border and Gumtha VDCs. Though months. Most of the people have to depend on resulted in significant reduction of à Mugu the production is predicted borrowing money to purchase food. income sources and food access. to decrease by 10-30%, Other VDCs are food secure with a stable outlook Staple food prices in local markets households should have for next cycle. increased by 10-20%. Pina and sufficient stocks for 3-4 Gumtha VDCs were affected by months. landslides due to heavy rainfall. Limited and marginal land in some In the northeast and northwest VDCs of Nuwakot and Paddy (with some areas, road blockades due to in Gatlang, Haku, Yarsa, Bridhim, Langtang, Timure exception in Rasuwa) and landslides in Rasuwa, high food Nuwakot, VDCs of Rasuwa, households have limited food stocks. millet harvest, together prices, decreased access to markets à Markets have insufficient food stocks available in some with more employment Rasuwa and reduced income opportunities areas. opportunities will contribute in the tourism sector have caused to improving food security. moderate food insecurity.

8 Barchhen, Barpata, , , Dhirkamandau, , , , Pokhari

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Food Security Bulletin

Nine VDCs in the north are moderately food Marginal agricultural land and lack insecure; people are mostly adopting traditional Maize has just been of irrigation facilities make people coping mechanisms like wage labour and sale of harvested. Paddy will be depend on purchasing food in NTFP. Household food stocks are sufficient for 2-3 Ã harvested in Oct-Nov. Pyuthan markets. Increased food prices months for half of the population. which should provide food have caused conditions of The remaining VDCs are food secure with a stable for up to 3 months. moderate food insecurity. outlook. Paddy production is expected to decline by 10- The VDCs located in the west and in the northwest, 30% and maize production are facing moderate food insecurity. 50% of by 30-50% due to heavy households have sufficient food stock for August- rainfall, strong wind and Increased food prices in the September, while the others are depending on pests. Current household markets caused conditions of Ä Rolpa wage labour. These communities were in a similar food stocks will barely meet moderate food insecurity. situation in the previous quarter due to poor people’s needs up to harvest of winter crop. November. Locals are planning to out-migrate to cope with the deteriorating food security situation. The food security situation appears to be stable in the central and western areas of the district. Paddy Around 30% of households have food stock for 1-2 production is expected to months. Similarly market food stocks are limited to Maize production has decreased by Â9 be normal, but income from 1-2 months. People are coping by borrowing food 40% (or more in some areas) due herbs collection will be from their neighbors and purchasing food on credit. to the effect of heavy rainfall and reduced; however The food security situation of Syalakhadi, Sisne, pest disease. Allo processing, GTZ/FSRP, and WFP-FFW Duli, RanmaMaikot, Jang, Khara, Shankh, and remittances, Yarsagumba collection programmes will increase

Rukum Rugha VDCs (previously highly food insecure) has and sale, helped people’s income opportunities to been improving due to WFP food assistance over livelihoods. Similarly, WFP food purchase needed food. the last three months. assistance and GTZ/FSRP The situation in Gotamkot, programmes helped to improve the Syalakhadi, Sisne, The other VDCs are food secure with a stable food security situation. RanmaMaikot, Hukam, and outlook. Ä Taksera VDCs could deteriorate in the next cycle, as maize is the only summer crop, which has decreased by around 30%.

Generally Food Secure VDCs

The VDCs with road connection have more employment The VDCs not close to roads opportunities, have in general will experience a deteriorating The majority of VDCs are, to a greater land ownership and are food security situation due to Baitadi different extent, all food secure. engaged in sale of agricultural Ä small agricultural plots, products. Paddy crop condition, the insufficient food stocks and no major crop for these areas, is employment opportunities. expected to be good. Sales of agricultural products and The paddy harvest will help NTFP, small trades at the border maintain food security; Chitwan, with India, remittances and good however, some VDCs of wage employment opportunities Danusha, Bara, Presenting a good situation. Chitwan10 could face moderate contribute to food security. In Parsa food insecurity in December as Mohattari, and Bara increasing civil security  food stocks are finished off. incidents threaten civil life but still Parsa, Sarlahi Families may cope by don’t affect the food security borrowing money and food. situation. Paddy and maize will be Good maize production in the harvested in October- majority of VDCs (few exceptions November and will be the Dolakha, in south Ramechap due to major contributor to food insufficient rainfall), sales of cash  security. The production is Presenting a good situation. crops and NTFP and wage predicted to be normal. Sale of Ramechap employment opportunities NTFP and cash crops and more contribute to food security. employment opportunities will help protect food security levels.

9 Some of the south-western VDCs 10 Kaule Korak, Lothar, Siddi

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Food Security Bulletin

Small agricultural lots with low productivity of paddy and millet Only for means that families will have to some VDCs rely on food purchases to of Dolakha11. supplement crop production. Poverty and high food prices have caused limited purchasing Ä capacity and will place families at risk of deteriorating food security. Households still have food stocks from winter crops and have started The VDCs in north, central and harvesting maize. People Paddy and millet harvest will Kavre, eastern Kavre and the southern VDCs complement their livelihood with contribute to local food of Sindhupalchowk are reported to Sindhupalchowk sales of livestock and cash crops  security. be food secure. and through agricultural wage labour.

Paddy and millet harvest will contribute to local food A good maize crop and, in some  security. areas, early paddy production, Makwanpur, sale of agricultural products, Only for Presenting a good situation. together with some wage some VDCs Sindhuli, Udayapur employment opportunities of Udayapur These VDCs could face contributed to food security. and moderate food insecurity in Makwanpur12. December. People may cope Ä by borrowing money and food. The VDCs in central and southern Good maize and potato production Nuwakot and Chilime, Thuman, and stocks from the winter crops, Golijung, Syafru, Dhunche, Ramche, Paddy (in some areas) and Nuwakot, sale of cash crops and NTFP, Dandagoun, Thulogoun, millet harvests will contribute some employment opportunities Rasuwa Lanarepouwa, Jibjibe, Bhorle,  to local food security. contributed to food security. Saramthali VDCs in Rasuwa are

reported to be food secure. The situation is likely to deteriorate, as households will Summer crop production declined run out of food stocks because Jungar, Gairigaun, , Kareti, because of strong winds and pests; of poor summer crop , Jhenam, Sakhi, Dubaring, however, people had good income production. Many people are and Dubudanda in the southwest are from the sale of NTFP and livestock. Rolpa planning to out-migrate after generally food secure with sufficient Employment opportunities were Ä the harvest of paddy, since food stock. available in I/NGOs development income opportunities at local activities, construction projects, and level are not going to be portering. sufficient to enable families to purchase needed food. Normal maize production, good employment opportunities together with vegetables sales helped in maintaining food security on the edge of the district headquarters; Salyan and food secure in Salyan. People have food in stock for All VDCs in both the districts are food In Surkhet, maize production up to six months in Salyan and Surkhet secure. decreased by 10-20%, however  three months in Surkhet. good employment opportunities, remittances from household members working outside the district together with livestock sales helped in maintaining food security.

11 , , Bigu, Kalingchok, Gaurisankar, , Chanku, Khare, Orang, , , Kopanchagu, , , Mali, Bhusaphedi, Dudhpokhari, Sailungeswor 12 Udayapur: VDCs of the northern belt; Makwanpur: Kankada, Raksirang, Bhartapundyadevi, Dandakharka

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Food Security Bulletin

Table 3 – Number of highly and severly food insecure people during July-September 2008

Highly food Highly food Severly food insecure Severly food insecure insecure (starting insecure (starting (acute food and Total Population at (acute food and Total Population at SNDistrict VDCs affecting livelihood SN District VDCs affecting livelihood livelihood crisis) Risk livelihood crisis) Risk assets) assets) Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 3 Phase 4 I. Karnali belt 7 Achham Walanta (1-9) 2,900 - 2,900 1 Kalikot Pakha (1-9) - 4,200 4,200 Achham Dhungachalna (1-9) 3,700 - 3,700 Kalikot Chhapre (1-9) - 3,200 3,200 Achham Khaptad (1-9) 1,400 - 1,400 Kalikot Mehelmudi (1,3,4) 1,100 - 1,100 Achham Soukat (1-9) 4,700 - 4,700 Kalikot Nanikot (1-9) 5,300 - 5,300 Achham Rishidaha (1-9) 2,900 - 2,900 Kalikot Dhoulagoha (1-9) 6,700 - 6,700 Achham Bhatakatiya (1-9) 3,000 - 3,000 Kalikot Khina (1-9) 3,800 - 3,800 Achham Sutar (1-9) 2,400 - 2,400 Kalikot Thirpu (1-9) 4,100 - 4,100 Achham Siudi (1-9) 3,600 - 3,600 Kalikot Ramnakot (1-5 & 7-9) 3,500 - 3,500 Achham Bhairabsthan (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Kalikot Badalkot (3-9) 2,400 - 2,400 Achham Rahaph (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Kalikot Daha (8, 9) 700 - 700 Achham Nada (1-9) 2,200 - 2,200 Kalikot Lalu (1-9) 5,200 - 5,200 Achham Kalekanda (1-9) 2,100 - 2,100 Kalikot PhoiMahadev (5-9) - 2,200 2,200 Achham Basti (1-9) 2,900 - 2,900 Kalikot Total 32,800 9,600 42,400 Achham Devisthan (1-9) 1,700 - 1,700 2 Humla Shrinagar (1-9) 2,700 - 2,700 Achham Ramaroshan (1-9) 3,700 - 3,700 Humla Maila (1-9) 3,400 - 3,400 Achham Batulasen (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Humla Madana (1-9) 1,500 - 1,500 Achham Dhakari (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Humla Kalika (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Achham Babla (1-9) 2,400 - 2,400 Humla Jaira (1-9) 2,000 - 2,000 Achham Nandegada (1-9) 2,700 - 2,700 Humla Mimi (1-9) 1,100 - 1,100 Achham Toli (1-9) 2,000 - 2,000 Humla Melchham (1-9) 900 - 900 Achham Payal (1-9) 4,000 - 4,000 Humla Saya (1-9) 1,000 - 1,000 Achham Thanti (1-9) 1,900 - 1,900 Humla Gothi (1-9) 1,300 - 1,300 Achham Kuskot (1-9) 3,300 - 3,300 Humla Shrimasta (1-9) 1,000 - 1,000 Achham Shodasadevi (1-9) 2,700 - 2,700 Humla Dandaphaya (1-9) 1,900 - 1,900 Achham Bindhyabasini (1-9) 2,400 - 2,400 Humla Thehe (1-9) 2,500 - 2,500 Achham Raniban (1-9) 1,900 - 1,900 Humla Kharpunath (1-9) 1,500 - 1,500 Achham Mashtabandali (1-9) 1,600 - 1,600 Humla Chhipra (1-9) 1,000 - 1,000 Achham Santada (1-9) 1,900 - 1,900 Humla Lali (1-9) 1,500 - 1,500 Achham Turmakhad (1-9) 2,700 - 2,700 Humla Raya (1-9) 1,800 - 1,800 Achham Budhakot (1-9) 2,200 - 2,200 Humla Barain (1-9) 1,200 - 1,200 Achham Warla (1-9) 1,700 - 1,700 Humla Total 29,100 - 29,100 Achham Hichma (1-9) 3,600 - 3,600 3 Mugu Bhie (1-9) 1,100 - 1,100 Achham Total 85,400 - 85,400 Mugu Natharpu (1-9) 800 - 800 8 Darchula Iyarkot (6,7,9) 500 - 500 Mugu Photu (1-9) 500 - 500 Darchula Guljar (1,8,9) 500 - 500 Mugu Jima (1-9) 1,400 - 1,400 Darchula Dhaulakot (2,3,6,8,9) 800 - 800 Mugu Ruga (1-9) 1,500 - 1,500 Darchula Pipalchauri (6,8,9) 1,200 - 1,200 Mugu Hyanglu (1-9) 1,900 - 1,900 Darchula Dhuligada (1-5) 2,000 - 2,000 Mugu Total 7,200 - 7,200 Darchula Total 5,000 - 5,000 4 Dolpa Mukot (1-9) 700 - 700 Sub-Total_II. 104,300 - 104,300 Dolpa Bhijer (1-9) 500 - 500 III. Rapti Bheri Hills Dolpa Tinje (1-9) 1,300 - 1,300 9 Rolpa Pachhawang (3,4, 7-9) 1,700 - 1,700 Dolpa Saldang (1-9) 2,800 - 2,800 Rolpa Rank (1-3, 5-7) 2,900 - 2,900 Dolpa Dho (1-9) 700 - 700 Rolpa Wota (4,7) 800 - 800 Dolpa Phoksundo (1-9) 600 - 600 Rolpa Rangkot (1-3, 7,8) 2,200 - 2,200 Dolpa Chharka (1-9) 700 - 700 Rolpa Rangsi (7,9) 800 - 800 Dolpa Total 7,300 - 7,300 Rolpa Bhirul / Mirul (5-9) 1,500 - 1,500 Sub-Total_I. 76,400 9,600 86,000 Rolpa Whama (1, 5-8) 2,200 - 2,200 II. Far Western Hills and Mountains Rolpa Total 12,100 - 12,100 5 Bajhang Bhamchaur 2,400 - 2,400 Sub-Total_III. 12,100 - 12,100 Bajhang Dahabagar 2,600 - 2,600 IV. Western Terai Bajhang Dantola 2,800 - 2,800 10 Kanchanpur - - - Bajhang Daulichaur 4,000 - 4,000 Kanchanpur - - - Bajhang Gadaraya 1,700 - 1,700 Kanchanpur Total 79,000 - 79,000 Bajhang Kanda 2,100 - 2,100 11 Kailali - - - Bajhang Lekhgau 2,500 - 2,500 Kailali - - - Bajhang Rilu 2,800 - 2,800 Kailali Total 155,000 - 155,000 Bajhang Sainpasela 3,500 - 3,500 12 Bardiya Bhimmapur 2,300 - 2,300 Bajhang Surma 2,300 - 2,300 Bardiya Daulatpur, 200 - 200 Bajhang Total 26,700 - 26,700 Bardiya Dhodari 300 - 300 6 Bajura Jugada (4,6,7) 1,800 - 1,800 Bardiya Gulariya 4,500 - 4,500 Bajura Kailashmandu (2, 5-8) 3,200 - 3,200 Bardiya Khairichandanpur 1,500 - 1,500 Bajura Brahmatola (2,5,6) 2,200 - 2,200 Bardiya Manau 700 - 700 Bajura Gudukhati (2) 500 - 500 Bardiya Rajapur 1,700 - 1,700 Bajura Antichaur (2) 500 - 500 Bardiya Total 11,200 - 11,200 Bajura Jagannath (2-4) 1,500 - 1,500 Sub-Total_IV. 245,200 - 245,200 Bajura Kolti (6-8) 2,100 - 2,100 V. Eastern Terai Bajura Kotila (4,8,9) 1,100 - 1,100 13 Saptari - - - Bajura Kuldevmandu (4,8) 1,000 - 1,000 14 Sunsari - - - Bajura Total 13,900 - 13,900 Saptari/Sunsari Total 64,000 64,000 Sub-Total_V. - 64,000 64,000 Grand Total 438,000 73,600 511,600

Food Security Bulletins are produced by WFP Nepal as part of the Food Security Monitoring and Analysis System. The FSMAS is currently funded from a DFID contribution in support of WFP’s operations in Nepal.

All information products produced by the Food Security Monitoring and Analysis System are available on the UN Nepal Information platform (www.un.org.np) or on the following WFP website: www.wfp.org/odan

For more information please contact the Food Security Monitoring and Analysis Unit United Nations World Food Programme, Patan Dhoka Road, Lalitpur PO Box 107

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Food Security Bulletin

Food Security Phase Classification: reference indicators

Reference Indicators phase 1 phase 2 phase 3 phase 4 phase 5 Observations Highly food severely food insecure insecure (acute Humanitarian Generally Food Moderately (starting food and emergency/fam secure food insecure affecting livelihood ine livelihood crisis) assets) T: up to 10-20% T: 20-40 % less T: 40-60% less T: 60-80 % less T: >80 % less than Normal yield is based on 5 crop less than normal than normal than normal than normal normal years average in the district a production / M+H: up to 10% M+H: 10-30% less M+H: 30-50% less M+H: 50-70% less M+H: >70% less (M=mountains, H=hills, situation less than normal than normal than normal than normal than normal T=Terai) T: > 50% HHs with T: > 30% HHs with T: 30-50% HHs with 1-3 months food < 1 month food > 50% HHs with depleted food 1. Food availability HHs food stocks stocks b more than 3 months stocks M+H: 30- stocks M+H: > 50% HHs M+H: > 30% HHs >50% HHs have food stocks 50% HHs with < 1 with 2-3 months with 1-2 months depleted food month food stocks food stocks food stocks stocks stock of main less than 1 month c staples in key 2- 3 months stocks 1-2 months stocks stocks depleted stock markets stocks depleted wage 10-30 % fewer 30 - 50 % fewer Opportunities normal employment employment as per normal opportunities opportunities decreased by > 50 a condition is based on opportunities situation compared to normal compared to normal % or no people's perception within district situation situation opportunities no opportunities sale of NTFP, income decreased income decreased Normal income earnings are cash crops income as per by up to 30 % by 30 - 60 % income decreased 2. Food access b based on people's and other agr. normal situation compared to normal compared to normal by > 60 % perception products situation situation no sales decreased, constant increased by more market price of increased by 10- increased by 20- increased by more compared to average price c or up to 10% of than 40-80% of rice 20% of normal price 40% of normal price than 80-100% of during same period last year normal price normal price normal price

occurrence of large occurrence of occurrence of scale devastating No natural disasters occurrence of natural disaster natural disaster natural disasters or occurrence natural disaster assets include land, natural causing 30-50 % causing >50% loss (i.e. earthquake) 3. Hazards a causing <20 % loss causing 20-30 % agricultural tools, cattle, disasters loss of food of stocks and causing complete of food stocks and loss of food stocks houses stocks/assets and assets and human destruction, assets and assets human casualties casualties significant human casualties, displacement up to 10% increase up to 20-40% 10-20% increase of >40% increase of Traditional seasonal out- of traditional increase of 4. Out-migration a Out-migration traditional seasonal traditional seasonal migration is based on seasonal out- traditional seasonal large scale out- out-migration out-migration people's perception migration out-migration migration change in regular HHs adopt a high Traditional coping HHs adopt food habits (reduce level of irreversible mechanisms that irreversible coping quantity food, less coping strategies are part of livelihood strategies (selling of preferred food), including, increased 5. Coping a Coping strategy (migration, productive assets - borrowing sale of productive wage labour, sell livestock, land, no more coping food/money, selling assets, looting, and NTFP, consumption seed) and skipping mechanisms, of non-productive high dependence of wild food) meals starvation and assets on wild foods death to measure and consider only if the other indicators acute child (<5 give evidence of being in a years) 10-15% > 15% phase 3, 4 or 5 (random malnutrition measurement of MUAC by >30% FMs) 6. Food utilization

significant cases of no significant cases epidemic outbreak; b disease diseases under pandemic outbreak pandemic outbreak of disease increasing control

security situation movement movement deteriorating restricted (bandhs restricted (bandhs general peaceful (bandhs and 7. Civil security a Civil security and roadblocks 15- and roadblocks > situation roadblocks 7-15 high intensity 30 consecutive 30 consecutive consecutive days / conflict situation, days / 3 months) days / 3 months) displacement 3 months)

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