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Land Lines Newsletter of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Urban Development Options for California’s Central Valley William Fulton or more than a century, California’s Great Central Valley has been recog- F nized as one of the world’s foremost agricultural regions. A giant basin 450 miles long and averaging 50 miles wide, the Valley encompasses some 19,000 square miles. With only one-half of one © CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES percent of the nation’s farmland, the Valley accounts for 8 percent of the nation’s farm output—including 15 percent of America’s vegetable production and 38 percent of fruit production. Today, large parts of the Valley are making a transition to an urban economy. Led by such emerging metropolitan areas as Sacramento, Fresno and Bakersfield, the Central Valley already has more than 5 Housing, highways, levees, rivers, and agricultural lands intersect across the million residents. State demographers Central Valley, as shown here along the Sacramento River. predict growth to reach almost 9 million people by 2020 and more than 11 million Given this scale of urban growth, For decades, the Valley’s regional environ- by 2040. what are the key issues facing the Valley? ment consisted mostly of three elements With the assistance of the Lincoln Institute, intertwined on the landscape—vestiges of the Great Valley Center—a non-govern- nature, a panoply of crops and compact mental organization supporting the econ- agricultural towns. The development of September 1999 omic, social and environmental well-being agriculture created a rural landscape, but Volume 11, Number 5 of California’s Central Valley—has under- one in which nature was often sacrificed taken an effort to try to frame this basic for agricultural production. A distinctive 3 APA Training Series question. Which issues are purely local, urban form evolved that was far different 4 Property Tax and which ones require a more regional from the rest of California. The Valley’s Administration in approach? What are the constraints the older towns, often sited on railway lines, Porto Alegre, Brazil Valley faces in the decades ahead? And, are typically compact but not dense, with 6 Tax Reform in Mexicali finally, what are the choices? How might wide, shady streets stretching out along the Valley approach the question of the flat expanse from an old commercial 8 Loeb Fellows in Mexico accommodating urban growth while still downtown. 9 Dissertation Fellowships retaining an agricultural base, a vibrant 12 Curriculum Development economy, a good quality of life and an Regional and Sub-Regional and Research Projects enhanced natural environment? Growth Dynamics 15 Recent Working Papers Perhaps the biggest question is simply In determining urban development options whether the Central Valley can accommo- for the Central Valley, it is important to 16 Calendar/On the Web date such a vast quantity of urban growth understand the context of growth dynamics and still maintain its distinctive identity. See Central Valley page 2 Central Valley California at Davis, and proximity to the Underlying Issues continued from page 1 Bay Area. This has become a popular loca- With so much urban growth on the tion for high-tech employers. horizon, the Central Valley’s twenty-first- that affect the entire region as well as Stockton-Modesto-Merced: Tradition- century landscape will be shaped by the important sub-regions. Although the geo- ally a major ranching and agricultural area, interplay among several different issues: graphical size of the Central Valley is very these centrally located counties are now Agriculture: Agriculture is likely to large—far larger than many states, for experiencing tremendous urban growth consume less land and less water in the example—in many ways it should be pressure because of Bay Area commuting, future than it has used in the past, but it is viewed as one region with a common set though they are not adding jobs as rapidly still likely to be the sector that most deter- of characteristics and problems. These as Sacramento Metro. mines the Valley’s urban growth patterns. include: Greater Fresno: Four counties near The critical issues are: What kind of agri- Air quality: The Central Valley Fresno remain the agricultural heartland cultural base will the Valley have in the consists of one air basin, and so pollutants of the Central Valley. Though population next century, and how much land and emitted in one part of the Valley can have growth rates are high, largely due to immi- water will that agricultural base require? an impact hundreds of miles away. gration and high birth rates, especially in Recent trends have moved the Valley toward Water supply and distribution: the metropolitan Fresno area, the economy ever-higher-value crops, and competition Although many parts of the Central Valley is only beginning to diversify and remains with foreign markets is expected to be depend heavily on groundwater, almost heavily focused on agriculture and related fierce. every community in the region is at least industries. Socioeconomic issues: The Valley partly dependent on one water source: the Bakersfield-Kern County: Somewhat has traditionally lagged behind the rest drainage that flows into the Sacramento separate geographically from the rest of the of California in social and economic indi- and San Joaquin Rivers and then through San Joaquin Valley, this area remains a cators. Unemployment and teenage preg- the Sacramento Delta. This water source is center of both agriculture and extractive nancy are high, while household income also used in many different ways by both industries, especially oil. This region is and educational attainment is low. Like state and federal water projects. experiencing rapid population growth and the rest of California, the Valley is rapid- Transportation links: The Central is the only part of the Valley that appears ly evolving a unique mix of racial diver- Valley is connected internally and to other to be directly influenced by spillover sity. Although the Valley will soon get a regions by a series of transportation links. growth from Greater Los Angeles. boost from the creation of a new Univer- Most obvious are the major sity of California campus in freeway corridors, including Merced County, the region’s Highway 99, Interstate 5, and overall economic competi- Interstate 80, along with rail Central Valley Metropolitan tiveness may not be able to and Regional Organizations lines, which generally follow the match its urban population Highway 99 corridor. A Center for Sustainability (Redding) growth. A B Land supply and cost: In Regional Action Partnership C Valley Vision (Sacramento, Yolo, Natural resources: In virtually all parts of the Central Yuba, Sutter, Placer, El Dorado Co.) the rush to create one of the Valley, land is cheaper and in 1 D Visioning Process (Stanislaus Co.) world’s great agricultural re- E The Growth Alternatives Alliance more abundant supply than it B (Fresno Co.) gions, the Central Valley’s is in coastal areas. This is one of C F Smart Growth Coalition leaders often overlooked the main reasons why popula- the wonderland of natural tion growth has shifted from the 3 2 resources that lay at their feet. coast to the Central Valley. D For example, the Valley’s vast At the same time, the Val- 4 system of wetlands, once one ley can be viewed as a group of 5 of the largest and most impor- five sub-regions, each with its own tant in the world, has almost growth dynamic. These include: 6 E completely disappeared, much North Valley: Seven coun- to the detriment of the migra- ties in the northern portion of Irrigated Agricultural F Land tory bird population. In the the Sacramento Valley remain Central Valley 7 National Forest future, there will be increasing rural and experience relatively State Colleges Park Land pressure to restore and en- and Universities little growth pressure compared Major Urban Center hance these natural resources 1 Cal State-Chico to the rest of the Valley. 2 Cal State-Sacramento even as the Valley continues Sacramento Metro: Six 3 U. of California-Davis to urbanize. The entire San counties around Sacramento 4 Cal State-Stanislaus Francisco Bay-Sacramento have the highest rates of educa- 5 U. of California-Merced Delta ecosystem has emerged tional attainment and the high- 6 Cal State-Fresno as the focal point of a massive 7 Cal State-Bakersfield est wage scales anywhere in the state and federal effort to Valley, largely because of the Source: Adapted from CA Dept. of Agriculture and Bruce A. Race, AIA, AICP, RACESTUDIO improve water quality and state capital, the University of restore biodiversity. LINCOLN INSTITUTE OF LAND POLICY2 LAND LINES • SEPTEMBER 1999 Infrastructure and infrastructure financing: When California’s coastal Training Series on metropolitan areas were created, mostly in the postwar era, the state and federal governments contributed greatly to their Community Planning success by picking up the tab for most of the infrastructure they required. In the last gain this year the American Plan- their adult use businesses or big box two decades, however, all this has changed. ning Association and the Lincoln houses of worship, do they have the right In the Central Valley, the urban infrastruc- A Institute are presenting a series of to regulate? As technology changes and as ture is underdeveloped, and the financial audio conference training programs on ethnic and religious populations fluctuate, ability of developers and new homebuyers community planning. They are designed community governance needs to adjust. to bear the full cost of community for planning commissioners, professional This program examines the role of plan- infrastructure is questionable. planners, elected and appointed officials, ning and the legal obligations of commu- Governmental structure and regional/ and their staffs to help them do better nities in this challenging environment.

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