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Scientific Advances in CTBT Monitoring and Verification

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Scientific Advances in CTBT Monitoring and Verification Scientific Advances in CTBT Monitoring and Verification REVIEW OF PRESENTATIONS AND OUTCOMES OF THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 2011 CONFERENCE 8 – 10 June 2011, Hofburg Palace, Vienna WWW.CTBTO.ORG DISCLAIMER The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the positions and policies of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission. The boundaries and presentation of material on maps do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Provisional Technical Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Scientific Advances in CTBT Monitoring and Verification REVIEW OF PRESENTATIONS AND OUTCOMES OF THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 2011 CONFERENCE 8 – 10 June 2011, Hofburg Palace, Vienna CTBT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE SERIES To build and strengthen its relationship with the broader science community in support of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization invites the international scientific community to conferences on a regular basis. These multidisciplinary scientific conferences attract scientists and experts from the broad range of the CTBT’s verification technologies, from national agencies involved in the CTBTO’s work to independent academic and research institutions. Members of the diplomatic community, international media and civil society also take an active interest. SnT2011 was held in Vienna’s Hofburg Palace on 8–10 June 2011. This report provides a summary of the scientific contributions presented at the Conference, and identifies some possible gaps in In cooperation with the Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs coverage and focus areas for the future. Contents Abbreviations viii Opening Remarks from the Executive Secretary of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission 1 Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria 3 Message from the Secretary General of the United Nations 5 1 Introduction 7 1.1 LOOK TO VERIFICATION 7 1.2 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AT THE FOCUS 7 1.3 ELEMENTS OF CTBT VERIFICATION 8 1.4 SNT2011 GOALS AND THEMES 8 1.5 REPORT OUTLINE 10 1.6 RELATED CTBTO PUBLICATIONS 11 2 Keynotes 12 2.1 RICHARD L GARWIN: THE SCIENTIFIC ROOTS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE CTBTO AND THE IMS 12 2.2 DAVID STRANGWAY: EARTH AND LUNAR SCIENCE: INTERACTION BETWEEN BASIC SCIENCE AND PUBLIC NEED 23 3 Data Acquisition 28 3.1 SENSORS AND MEASUREMENTS 29 3.1.1 Seismic 29 3.1.2 Hydroacoustic 29 3.1.3 Infrasound 30 3.1.4 Seismic, Hydroacoustic and Infrasound as a Group 30 3.1.5 Radionuclide 30 3.1.6 Satellite-Based and Other 33 3.2 MONITORING FACILITIES 35 3.2.1 IMS Stations and Laboratories 35 3.2.2 Non-IMS Networks 35 3.3 STRATEGIES FOR ON-SITE INSPECTION 37 4 Data Transmission, Storage and Format 39 4.1 DATA TRANSMISSION 40 4.2 DATA FORMATS 40 CONTENTS iii 5 Data Processing and Synthesis 41 5.1 CREATING SEISMOACOUSTIC EVENT LISTS 42 5.1.1 Introduction 42 5.1.2 Events from Seismic Data 42 5.1.3 Events From Hydroacoustic Data 46 5.1.4 Events From Infrasound Data 47 5.1.5 Fusing Seismoacoustic Observations 48 5.2 RADIONUCLIDE DATA PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS 48 6 Earth Characterization 50 6.1 SOLID EARTH 51 6.1.1 Seismic Wave Speed 51 6.1.2 Anelastic Attenuation 54 6.1.3 Tectonic Stress 55 6.1.4 Seismicity and Seismic Hazard 55 6.1.5 Subsurface Gas Transport 56 6.2 OCEANs 56 6.3 ATMOSPHERE 57 6.3.1 Acoustic Wave Speed 57 6.3.2 Acoustic Attenuation 58 6.3.3 Atmospheric Transport 60 7 Interpretation 63 7.1 GEOPHYSICAL SIGNATURES 64 7.1.1 Explosion 64 7.1.2 Earthquake 65 7.1.3 Volcano 66 7.1.4 Other sources 68 7.2 RADIONUCLIDE SIGNATURES 69 7.2.1 Nuclear Explosion 69 7.2.2 Nuclear Power Reactor 70 7.2.3 Medical Radioisotope Production Facility 73 7.3 IDENTIFICATION OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS 73 7.3.1 Identification of Explosions Using Seismoacoustic Data 73 7.3.2 Identification of Nuclear Explosions Using Radionuclide Data 75 7.3.3 Event Screening for IDC Products 75 8 Capability, Performance and Sustainment 77 8.1 BACKGROUND SIGNALS AND NOISE 78 8.1.1 Seismoacoustic 78 8.1.2 Radionuclide 79 iv SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN CTBT MONITORING AND VERIFICATION 8.2 NETWORK CAPABILITY 80 8.2.1 Seismoacoustic Event Location Thresholds 80 8.2.2 Radionuclide Network Capability 82 8.3 PERFORMANCE, QUALITY AND VALIDATION 83 8.4 SUSTAINMENt 85 9 Sharing Data and Knowledge 87 9.1 BUILDING GLOBAL CAPACITY 87 9.2 COLLABORATION AND TRAINING INITIATIVES 89 9.3 NATIONAL EXPERIENCES 90 9.4 DATA AND INFORMATION PLATFORMS 90 10 Closing 95 10.1 PAUL G. RICHARDS: PERSPECTIVE OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY 95 10.2 LASSINA ZERBO: PERSPECTIVE OF THE CTBTO 98 10.3 JAY ZUCCA: PERSPECTIVE OF THE STATES SIGNATORIEs 100 11 What Was Missing from SnT2011? 102 11.1 SNT2011 GOAL 1 103 11.2 SNT2011 GOAL 2 104 11.3 SNT2011 GOAL 3 105 12 Possible Focus Areas 106 12.1 DATA ACQUISITION 107 12.2 DATA TRANSMISSION, STORAGE AND FORMAt 107 12.3 DATA PROCESSING AND SYNTHESIs 108 12.4 EARTH CHARACTERIZATION 108 12.5 INTERPRETATION 109 12.6 CAPABILITY, PERFORMANCE AND SUSTAINMENT 109 12.7 SHARING OF DATA AND KNOWLEDGE 110 Notes 111 Appendix 1 Oral and Poster Presentations 114 Index of Contributing Authors 122 Index of Cited Contributions 123 General Index 125 dvd of Oral Presentations, Posters and Videos of the Sessions rear pocket CONTENTS v FOCUS BOXES The Role of Radioactive Noble Gases in CTBT Verification 31 The Impact of Smaller Seismic Events 43 An Integrated Approach to Seismoacoustic Data 48 Determination of Seismic Wave Speeds 52 Infrasound Calibration 59 Locating the Source of Observed Radionuclides 61 Tohoku and Fukushima: Their Verification Relevance 71 Radionuclide Particulates and Verification 74 Spin-off Applications of IMS Data 88 Combining IMS Data With Non-IMS Data 91 FIGURES 2.1 usa and ussr/Russian military stockpiled nuclear warheads, 1945–2010 13 2.2 Seismic source from a nuclear explosion in an underground cavity: notes by Enrico Fermi 16 2.3 Schematic of data processing and analysis of IMS data at the IDC 19 2.4 Earthquakes and the 9 October 2006 DPRK announced nuclear test observed at seismic stations mdj and tjn, with path corrections 19 2.5 Examples of sources recorded by the IMS infrasound network 20 2.6 Explosive energy detectable by the full IMS infrasound network 21 2.7 Example of ‘smart network’ threshold monitoring for seismic events from Novaya Zemlya 22 2.8 usa National Academy of Sciences Report: “Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty” (2002) 22 3.1 Status of DONET, offshore Japan, in May 2011 30 3.2 PNNL underground laboratory facility 32 3.3 sauna II equipment for the acquisition and measurement of radioactive noble gas 32 3.4 Detail of improved radioactive noble gas monitoring equipment developed by rosatom 33 3.5 The Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS) 34 3.6 The Earthscope usarray transportable array 37 3.7 Stations of the Dong-bei Broadband Seismic Network, China 38 4.1 Main components of the CTBTO Global Communications Infrastructure (GCI) 40 5.1 REB events for the 14-month period February 2010 to March 2011 that include associated infrasound phases 49 6.1 Acoustic ray tracing used to show the propagation of infrasound waves 57 6.2 HARPA/DLR infrasound propagation modelling over flat and realistic terrain 58 6.3 Maps contrasting the azimuths of infrasound detections from infrasound calibration explosions conducted in the Middle East region in winter and summer 60 6.4 Adaptive model with variable spatial resolution for optimum representation of variations in data density and atm field complexity. 62 6.5 Estimates of the ash plume from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption in Iceland 62 7.1 Back-azimuth versus time for signals from the 26 December 2006 Sumatra earthquake observed at IMS hydrophone stations 65 7.2 Volcanoes included in a study using infrasound stations operating on 67 1 January 2010 7.3 Potential surface noble gas activity after a 1-kT underground nuclear test 69 vi SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN CTBT MONITORING AND VERIFICATION 7.4 Concentrations of xenon-131m, xenon-133 and xenon-133m detected at the non-IMS station in Richmond, Washington State, usa during March 2011 72 7.5 Comparison of xenon isotope ratios based on observations of the Fukushima accident 75 8.1 Calculated average background of xenon-133 calculated for the three-year period 2007 to 2009 80 8.2 Number of teleseismic phases associated to REB events from each IMS primary seismic station for 130 selected days 81 8.3 Cumulative number of seismic events against magnitude, for the ISC Bulletin and for the REB 82 8.4 Estimates of the global detection capability of the IMS radionuclide network 83 8.5 Average of defined magnitudes mb and ML for the LEB events in each month, from January 2000 to April 2011 85 8.6 The IDC Operations Centre 85 9.1 Capacity building systems installed by CTBTO at NDCs, with European Union support 87 9.2 Growth in the size of the archive of global seismic and other data at the IRIS DMC 92 9.3 Digital broadband seismograph stations of the FDSN backbone network in 2011, including those of the IRIS/GSN of the usa 92 9.4 Objectives of the ARISE project 93 9.5 The full ISC Bulletin 1960−2011 93 9.6 Distribution of the 7,410 GT5–GT0 events in the IASPEI Reference Event List as at May 2011 94 TABLES 3.1 Some non-IMS networks of monitoring stations presented at SnT2011 36 CONTENTS vii ABBREVIATIONS GPCC Global Precipitation NDACC
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