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BIS Working Papers No 532 Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve
BIS Working Papers No 532 Mortgage risk and the yield curve by Aytek Malkhozov, Philippe Mueller, Andrea Vedolin and Gyuri Venter Monetary and Economic Department December 2015 JEL classification: G12, G21, E43 Keywords: Term Structure of Interest Rates, MBS, Supply Factor BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2015. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve∗ Aytek Malkhozov† Philippe Mueller‡ Andrea Vedolin§ Gyuri Venter¶ Abstract We study the feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed secu- rities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate the supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions that are strongly supported in the data: (i) MBS duration positively predicts nominal and real excess bond returns, especially for longer maturities; (ii) the predictive power of MBS duration is transitory in nature; and (iii) MBS convexity increases interest -
Finance Without Financiers*
3 Finance without Financiers* Robert C. Hockett, Cornell Law School * Thanks to Dan Alpert, Fadhel Kaboub, Stephanie Kelton, Paul McCulley, Zoltan Polszar, Nouriel Roubini and particularly my alter ego Saule Omarova. Special thanks to Fred Block and Erik Olin Wright, who have been part of this project since its inception in 2014 – as well as to the “September Group,” where it proved necessary that same year to formulate arguments whose full elaboration has issued in this Chapter. Hockett, Finance without Financiers 4 I see, therefore, the rentier aspect of capitalism as a transitional phase which will disappear when it has done its work…Thus [we] might aim in practice… at an increase in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce, so that the functionless investor will no longer receive a bonus; and at a scheme of direct taxation which allows the intelligence and determination and executive skill of the financiers… (who are certainly so fond of their craft that their labour could be obtained much cheaper than at present), to be harnessed to the service of the community on reasonable terms of reward.1 INTRODUCTION: MYTHS OF SCARCITY AND INTERMEDIATION A familiar belief about banks and other financial institutions is that they function primarily as “intermediaries,” managing flows of scarce funds from private sector “savers” or “surplus units” who have accumulated them to “dissevers” or “deficit units” who have need of them and can pay for their use. This view is routinely stated in treatises,2 textbooks,3 learned journals,4 and the popular media.5 It also lurks in the background each time we hear theoretical references to “loanable funds,” practical warnings about public “crowd-out” of private investment, or the like.6 This, what I shall call “intermediated scarce private capital” view of finance bears two interesting properties. -
COVID-19 Activity in U.S. Public Finance
COVID-19COVID-19 ActivityActivity InIn U.S.U.S. PublicPublic FinanceFinance JulyJuly 22,22, 20212021 Rating Activity PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST On Sept. 22, 2020, we changed the presentation of rating changes in the summary table below. For Robin L Prunty issuers that have had multiple rating actions since March 24, 2020, the table now shows the most New York recent rating action rather than the first. Each issuer will only be included in the summary table + 1 (212) 438 2081 once. robin.prunty @spglobal.com SECONDARY CONTACT Summary Of Rating Actions Eden P Perry Through July 21, 2021 New York (1) 212-438-0613 On Sept. 22, 2020, we changed the presentation of rating changes in the summary table below. For issuers that have had multiple rating eden.perry actions since March 24, 2020, the table now shows the most recent rating action rather than the first. Each issuer will only be included in @spglobal.com the summary table once. Charter Schs, Independent Schs, Health Higher Ed & Community Local Action Care Housing Not-For-Profit Colls Govts States Transportation Utilities Total Downgrade 9 12 28 3 39 2 6 4 103 Downgrade + 1 2 1 4 CreditWatch negative Downgrade + 4 1 10 2 24 2 5 48 Negative outlook revision Downgrade + 3 2 5 Off CreditWatch Downgrade + 10 1 16 3 36 1 1 68 Stable outlook revision Negative 39 13 169 20 525 14 44 28 852 outlook revision Stable 21 1 71 1 330 11 142 5 582 outlook revision www.spglobal.com/ratings July 22, 2021 1 COVID-19 Activity In U.S. -
Guidelines for Public Financial Management Reform
Commonwealth Secretariat Published by: Commonwealth Secretariat Marlborough House Pall Mall London SW1Y 5HX United Kingdom Copyright @ Commonwealth Secretariat All Rights Reserved. No part of this public publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the publisher. May be purchased from Publication Unit Commonwealth Secretariat Telephone: +44(0)20 7747 6342 Facsimile: +44(0)20 7839 9081 GUIDELINES FOR PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT REFORM Commonwealth Secretariat TABLE OF CONTENTS Reform 26 Appendix C List of Participants of the Brainstorming Workshop 34 FOREWORD v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. PROCESS FRAMEWORK (“HOW”) 3 2.1. Develop a strategic reform framework 3 2.2. Address structural issues 4 2.3. Make a commitment to change (political will) 5 2.4. Establish and empower key institutions 7 2.5. Managing reform 7 2.6. Monitor progress of PFM reforms 10 3. FISCAL FRAMEWORK (“WHAT”) 12 3.1. Revenue collection 12 3.2. Improve debt management 13 3.3. Improve planning processes 14 3.4. Improve budgeting 14 3.5. Strong budget implementation, accounting and reporting 15 3.6. Procurement 16 3.7. Strong internal and external oversight 17 4. Conclusion 22 References 23 Appendix A: Excerpts from the Abuja Communique 2003 24 iv Appendix B: Supporting Better Country Public Financial Management Systems: Towards a Strengthened Approach to Supporting PFR FOREWORD ABBREVIATIONS ANAO Australia National Audit Office Implementing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) demands effective public ANC African National Congress financial management that is imbued with transparency and accountability measures to CFAA Country Financial Accountability Assessment achieve strategic outcomes. -
WHY DOES the YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States
BIS WORKING PAPERS No. 49 WHY DOES THE YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States by Frank Smets and Kostas Tsatsaronis September 1997 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department BASLE BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. © Bank for International Settlements 1997 CH-4002 Basle, Switzerland Also available on the BIS World Wide Web site (http://www.bis.org). All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 WHY DOES THE YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States by Frank Smets and Kostas Tsatsaronis * September 1997 Abstract This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and term premium components of the term spread and on output. In both countries demand and monetary policy shocks contribute to the covariance between output growth and the lagged term spread, while inflation scares do not. As the latter are more important in the United States, they reduce the predictive content of the term spread in that country. -
Notes on the Yield Curve
Notes on the yield curve Ian Martin Steve Ross∗ September, 2018 Abstract We study the properties of the yield curve under the assumptions that (i) the fixed-income market is complete and (ii) the state vector that drives interest rates follows a finite discrete-time Markov chain. We focus in particular on the relationship between the behavior of the long end of the yield curve and the recovered time discount factor and marginal utilities of a pseudo-representative agent; and on the relationship between the \trappedness" of an economy and the convergence of yields at the long end. JEL code: G12. Keywords: yield curve, term structure, recovery theorem, traps, Cheeger inequality, eigenvalue gap. ∗Ian Martin (corresponding author): London School of Economics, London, UK, [email protected]. Steve Ross: MIT Sloan, Cambridge, MA. We are grateful to Dave Backus, Ravi Bansal, John Campbell, Mike Chernov, Darrell Duffie, Lars Hansen, Ken Singleton, Leifu Zhang, and to participants at the TIGER Forum and at the SITE conference for their comments. Ian Martin is grateful for support from the ERC under Starting Grant 639744. 1 In this paper, we present some theoretical results on the properties of the long end of the yield curve. Our results relate to two literatures. The first is the Recovery Theorem of Ross (2015). Ross showed that, given a matrix of Arrow{Debreu prices, it is possible to infer the objective state transition probabilities and marginal utilities. Although it is a familiar fact that sufficiently rich asset price data pins down the risk-neutral probabilities, it is initially surprising that we can do the same for the objective, or real-world, probabilities. -
A Warning to Bond Bears
A warning to bond bears Curt Custard | UBS Global Asset Management | July 2014 American bond bulls are a hardy species. A bond bull born in the early 1980s would have enjoyed a healthy life over at least three decades in the US. Why should other countries care about US bond yields? The topic matters for investors everywhere, since US Treasuries are the world’s biggest bond market, and to some extent set the pace for global bond markets – witness the global jump in yields when the Federal Reserve surprised investors with talk of ‘tapering’ in June 2013. And on days when bond yields jump up, equities tend to jump down – again, we saw this in global equities markets in June 2013. Every investor should therefore care about the future direction of US bond markets. The bull market that started when 10- year US Treasury yields peaked in 1981 may or may not be over. The 10-year yield dropped to a record low of 1.4% in July 2012. Was that a trough that won’t be revisited for decades, or just the latest in a succession of new records in a secular bull market that is still going? It’s too early to say. Many commentators had made up their minds by the end of last year. As we closed 2013, most investors looked at their checklist of factors that hurt US government bond prices. Improving economy? Check. Falling unemployment? Check. Tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve? Check. And so on – other factors such as steep yield curves and low real yields also supported the ‘safe bet’ that yields would go higher. -
Public Finance Authority
PRELIMINARY OFFICIAL STATEMENT DATED MAY 31, 2018 NEW ISSUE RATING: Fitch: BB BOOK-ENTRY ONLY In the opinion of Womble Bond Dickinson (US) LLP, Bond Counsel, under existing law and assuming continuing compliance by the Authority and the Corporation with their respective covenants to comply with the requirements of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), as described herein, interest on the Bonds will not be includable in the gross income of the owners thereof for purposes of federal income taxation. Bond Counsel is also of the opinion that interest on the Bonds will not be a specific preference item for purposes of the alternative minimum tax imposed by the Code. Interest on the Bonds will not be exempt from State of Wisconsin or State of North Carolina income taxes. See “TAX TREATMENT.” $91,460,000* PUBLIC FINANCE AUTHORITY RETIREMENT FACILITIES FIRST MORTGAGE REVENUE BONDS (SOUTHMINSTER) SERIES 2018 Dated: Date of Delivery Due: As shown on inside front cover The Bonds offered hereby (the “Bonds”) are being issued by the Public Finance Authority (the “Authority”) pursuant to a Trust Agreement between the Authority and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee (the “Bond Trustee”), for the purpose of providing funds to Southminster, Inc. (the “Corporation”), to be used, together with other available funds, to (i) pay the costs of the Project (as defined herein), (ii) fund Reserve Fund No. 1 (as defined herein) and (iii) pay certain expenses incurred in connection with the issuance of the Bonds. See “THE PROJECT” in Appendix A hereto and “SECURITY AND SOURCES OF PAYMENT FOR THE BONDS” herein. -
Should We Fear the Inverted Yield Curve?
PAGE ONE Economics® Should We Fear the Inverted Yield Curve? Diego Mendez-Carbajo, Ph.D., Senior Economic Education Specialist GLOSSARY “What, me worry?” Bond: A certificate of indebtedness issued —Alfred E. Neuman (MAD magazine) by a government or corporation. Coupon (of bonds): The regular payments received by the buyer of a bond. On August 14, 2019, news outlets widely carried news of a “yield curve Face value (of bonds): The dollar amount inversion.” Stock market indexes dramatically dropped in value, and Google paid to the bond holder when a bond searches for the word “recession” peaked. What is the yield curve? How matures. does it invert? Why does it matter? Should we worry about it? Maturity (of bonds): The time period during which a bond makes coupon payments. U.S. Bonds and Yields Yield curve: A graph that shows the yields of bonds with different maturity dates. Both the federal government and corporations borrow money by selling bonds when their expenses are larger than their revenue. Bonds are certifi- Yield (of bonds): The return from owning a bond. It depends on the price paid for cates of indebtedness (i.e., IOUs) entitling the buyer of the bond to a regular the bond, its coupon payments, and its stream of payments (called coupons) for a period of time (called maturity). face value. The time until the last payment is called the remaining maturity of the bond. When a bond matures, the issuer of the bond returns to the buyer of the bond the amount borrowed (called the face value of the bond). -
Yield Curves and the Recession Expectations
Balkan and Near Eastern Journal of Social Sciences Yılmaz, 2020: 06 (03) BNEJSS Balkan ve Yakın Doğu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Yield Curves and the Recession Expectations Rasim Yılmaz1 1Prof.Dr., Tekirdağ Namık Kemal University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, [email protected], ORCID: 0000-0002-1084-8705 Abstract: The curve representing the returns of bonds bearing the same risk, liquidity and tax conditions but with different maturities is called yield curve. The yield curve typically slopes upward, i.e. longer-maturity assets have a higher return than shorter-maturity assets, due to the fact that investors demand a premium to hold a bond or a note for a longer period. The premium is demanded for risks such as inflation and other uncertainties that can develop over time. A flatter yield curve signals concerns about the future economic outlook while an inverted yield curve is considered as a warning sign about the future economic outlook. When the short-term asset rates rise above the rates on long-term assets, i.e. the spread is negative, yield curve inversions occur. Interest rates increases in periods of economic expansion, while interest rates decrease in periods of economic recession. The horizontal and negative slope of the yield curve indicates that short- term interest rates are expected to fall. Therefore, the economy is expected to enter a recession. The recent flattening and inversion of the yield curve in the USA have triggered the discussions about the recession expectations in the USA. Key Words: Yield Curve, Recession, Globalization 1. INTRODUCTION Figure 1: The Slope of Yield Curves Risk, liquidity and tax conditions (risk structure) affect the interest rates of the bonds. -
Public Money for the Public Good
ICAEW BETTER GOVERNMENT SERIES Public money for the public good BUILDING TRUST IN THE PUBLIC FINANCES A POLICY INSIGHT PUBLIC MONEY FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC MONEY FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD PageForeword head ‘Public money ought to be For the government this bond of trust is INSIGHT especially important. The public needs to With the public touched with the most trust that when the government asks them for sector making scrupulous conscientiousness taxes, the monies paid over and other public up nearly half resources will be used for the public good. of the global of honour. It is not the economy, effective public financial produce of riches only, but Every country has a unique history and faces management is a of the hard earnings of distinct challenges. While there can never critical factor in the be a single approach to public financial economic success labour and poverty.’ management, there are certain universal of each and principles and factors which underpin the every country. Thomas Paine creation of trust anywhere in the world. This publication provides an overview of those Successful economies deliver sustainable factors, both cultural and technical. growth and resources to meet the needs of individuals, communities and business. With To illustrate what can be done, we have government activities accounting for nearly half included a range of case studies showing of the global economy, effective public financial how different countries have taken practical management is a crucial, yet all too often steps to build trust in public money. The overlooked, condition for prosperity. majority of these are from developing nations: lower GDP is no barrier to effective public The role of professional accountants is financial management. -
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve Michael D
FRBSF Economic Letter 2018-07 | March 5, 2018 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens The term spread—the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates—is a strikingly accurate predictor of future economic activity. Every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve. Furthermore, a negative term spread was always followed by an economic slowdown and, except for one time, by a recession. While the current environment is somewhat special—with low interest rates and risk premiums—the power of the term spread to predict economic slowdowns appears intact. One of the most pervasive relationships in macroeconomics is that between the term spread—the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates—and future economic activity. A negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve, reliably predicts low future output growth and indicates a high probability of recession (Rudebusch and Williams 2009). This relationship holds not only in the United States but also for a number of other advanced economies (Estrella and Mishkin 1997). The term spread is one of the most reliable predictors of future economic activity among a wide range of economic and financial indicators and, as such, is closely watched by professional forecasters and policymakers alike. Over most of the current recovery, particularly in 2017, the yield curve has flattened. As of the end of February, the difference between the ten-year and one-year Treasury yields stands at only 0.8%.