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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly

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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly We are pleased to present Edition 25 of the Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Quarterly (GMISQ), a snapshot of the performance, news and trends across the resources and infrastructure services sectors. The Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) rose 7% during the December 2019 quarter, while the broader equity market finished flat over the period. The index appreciation was driven by the GMISI’s larger constituents, with 18 of the top 25 companies by market capitalisation posting share price increases. In contrast, 18 of the lower 25 companies went backwards during the quarter. The index has softened in the opening weeks of 2020, following the announcement of operating issues at several companies and concerns around the potential impact of the coronavirus on resources activity. At the end of the December quarter, the sector’s median FY20 EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA multiples were 8.8x and 5.6x respectively, both above long term averages. While equity markets were generally strong over 2019, IPO activity remained subdued, as a number of potential new listings in the sector were withdrawn or deferred late in the quarter. However, it was a busy period for M&A, with major announced transactions including Ventia’s acquisition of Broadspectrum, the sale of Lendlease’s Engineering business to Acciona and NRW’s purchase of BGC Contracting. In this edition we take a snapshot of some highlights from 2019, including corporate transactions and the biggest movers in the index. The data shows that the largest share price changes were primarily observed in small-caps that have reported material earnings changes. We also present the corporate outlook commentary from the 2019 AGM season, which generally saw companies anticipate the continuation of spending directed towards public infrastructure and a recovery in mining expenditure. While there may be heightened uncertainty in the short term, the positive theme is largely consistent what we are seeing in the midst of the 1H20 reporting season, with strong results being achieved across most constituents. Editorial Team Chris Branston Tom Waddell David Burton [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edition 25 Gresham Advisory Partners Ltd is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory 1 February 2020 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. Share Price Movements GMISI CONSTITUENTS1 LEADERS & LAGGARDS (SHARE PRICE)1 Ranks Market Cap (A$m) Share Leaders Laggards Company price Dec Sep 31 Dec 19 30 Sep 19 r % 39% 39% 39% 1 1 CIMIC Group Ltd. (ASX:CIM) 10,728 10,198 5% 28% 23% 2 2 Orica Ltd. (ASX:ORI) 8,373 8,578 -2% 3 3 Worley Ltd. (ASX:WOR) 7,967 6,752 18% 4 4 Seven Group Holdings Ltd. (ASX:SVW) 6,607 5,912 12% 5 5 Downer EDI Ltd. (ASX:DOW) 4,859 4,639 5% 6 6 ALS Ltd. (ASX:ALQ) 4,429 3,869 14% (20%) (23%) (24%) (27%) 7 7 Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:MIN) 3,108 2,517 23% 8 9 Monadelphous Group Ltd. (ASX:MND) 1,575 1,485 6% (44%) 9 11 NRW Holdings Ltd. (ASX:NWH) 1,367 874 39% 10 8 Perenti Global Ltd. (ASX:PRN) 1,112 1,530 -27% NRW Swick Decmil Perenti 11 10 Service Stream Ltd. (ASX:SSM) 1,084 1,066 2% Lucas AJ Saunders Macmahon 12 12 Emeco Holdings Ltd. (ASX:EHL) 701 619 13% Mastermyne 13 15 Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX:MAH) 614 442 39% Construction MineralResources 14 13 Imdex Ltd. (ASX:IMD) 572 543 5% AcrowFormwork & 15 16 Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. (ASX:AQZ) 329 289 12% 1 16 17 MACA Ltd. (ASX:MLD) 281 257 9% PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO S&P 200 INDICES 17 18 Lycopodium Ltd. (ASX:LYL) 222 216 3% 18 na Intega Group Ltd. (ASX:ITG) 212 na na 14% 19 na Mader Group Ltd. (ASX:MAD) 212 na na 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 20 14 Cardno Ltd. (ASX:CDD) 211 498 -16% 3% 3% 3% 2% 0% 21 22 Fleetwood Corp. Ltd. (ASX:FWD) 199 183 9% 0% 22 20 Civmec Ltd. (ASX:CVL) 196 207 -5% (0%) 23 25 Engenco Ltd. (ASX:EGN) 186 171 9% (0%) (3%) (3%) 24 26 RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd. (ASX:RUL) 183 166 10% (8%) 25 23 SRG Global Ltd. (ASX:SRG) 178 181 -2% 26 21 BSA Ltd. (ASX:BSA) 171 189 -10% 27 27 MMA Offshore Ltd. (ASX:MRM) 162 163 -8% IT 28 28 Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Ltd. (ASX:SXE) 145 134 3% GMISI A-REIT Energy Utilities 29 24 Boart Longyear Ltd. (ASX:BLY) 143 171 -16% Materials Resources Industrials Cons.Disc. HealthCare S&P/ASX200 Cons.Staples 30 31 Austin Engineering Ltd. (ASX:ANG) 127 110 16% AllOrdinaries TelcoServices 31 29 GR Engineering Services Ltd. (ASX:GNG) 123 134 -8% Financial-x-A-REIT 32 33 Mitchell Services Ltd. (ASX:MSV) 118 99 4% 33 19 Decmil Group Ltd. (ASX:DCG) 117 211 -44% PERFORMANCE OVER TIME 34 32 EnviroSuite Ltd. (ASX:EVS) 107 107 -15% 35 30 Mastermyne Group Ltd. (ASX:MYE) 97 121 -20% 90 Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) 36 34 AJ Lucas Group Ltd. (ASX:AJL) 82 79 -24% S&P/ASX 200 37 41 Acrow Formwork & Construction Services Ltd. (ASX:ACF) 70 43 39% 80 S&P/ASX 200 Resources 38 35 Laserbond Ltd. (ASX:LBL) 67 72 -7% GMISI (less top 5) 39 37 Veem Ltd. (ASX:VEE) 64 72 -11% 40 36 Boom Logistics Ltd. (ASX:BOL) 60 72 -15% 70 41 39 Primero Group Ltd. (ASX:PGX) 59 55 -7% 42 38 Swick Mining Services Ltd. (ASX:SWK) 55 63 -23% 60 43 40 LogiCamms Ltd. (ASX:LCM) 37 46 -20% 44 43 Valmec Ltd. (ASX:VMX) 37 38 -3% 50 45 42 Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd. (ASX:MCE) 36 42 -13% 46 45 Saunders International Ltd. (ASX:SND) 34 26 28% 47 44 XRF Scientific Ltd. (ASX:XRF) 31 33 -8% 40 48 47 Veris Ltd. (ASX:VRS) 22 21 5% 49 46 EVZ Ltd. (ASX:EVZ) 20 21 -5% 30 50 51 Tempo Australia Ltd. (ASX:TPP) 15 10 20% Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Notes: (1) Performance measured over the period 30-Sep-19 to 31-Dec-19 (inclusive). Source: FactSet, IRESS. 2 2 Valuation Multiples The median forward PE multiple fell during the start of the December Quarter before later recovering and finishing ~12% above the longer term median. 1 YEAR FORWARD PRICE EARNINGS RATIO OVER TIME 18x 16x 14x 12x GMISI Median: 10.4x 10x 8x 6x GMISI 4x All Ordinaries 2x Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 PRICE EARNINGS RATIO (FY20F) 30x 25x 20x 15x Median: 13.0x 10x 5x - LYL ITG LBL BLY ORI SXE CVL EHL VRS ACF RUL BOL SRG CIM PGX ALQ PRN SND AQZ IMD MIN CDD SSM DCG ANG SWK MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW DIVIDEND YIELD (FY20F) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Median: 2.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% - LYL ITG LBL ORI SXE EVS CVL EHL VRS ACF RUL BOL SRG CIM PGX ALQ PRN AQZ IMD SND MIN CDD SSM DCG ANG SWK MCE MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts; (2) Share prices are as at 31-Dec-19; (3) Earnings multiples are not calendarised; (4) Companies exhibiting negative multiples have been excluded from the above analysis. Source: FactSet. 3 3 20.0x 18.0x 16.0x 14.0x 12.0x Median: 8.8x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x Valuation Multiples (cont.) Multiples Valuation 4.0x negative multiples have been excluded from the (4) Enterprise Value is based on market capitalisation plus minority interests and last reported net debt foradjusted capita Notes PRICE/NTA (FY20F) EV/EBITDA (FY20F) EV/EBIT cap The 2.0x : (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are premium - sector’s LYL ITG LBL BLY ORI SXE CVL EHL VRS ACF RUL BOL SRG CIM PGX ALQ PRN IMD SND AQZ MIN CDD SSM DCG ANG SWK MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW Large Cap (>$1bn) Cap Large median continued, FY 16.0x 20 several 14.0x EV/EBIT 12.0x of above above 10.0x Median: 5.6x the and 8.0x analysis. Source asset EV/EBITDA 6.0x - included included in charts; 4.0x light : Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) and $200m (between Cap Mid 2.0xFactSet. consultancies multiples - LYL ITG LBL BLY ORI SXE CVL EHL ACF VRS RUL BOL SRG CIM PGX ALQ PRN SND AQZ IMD MIN CDD SSM DCG ANG SWK MSV MLD GNG SVW (2) VMX FWD MAH WOR MND NWH DOW Share Share 4 are prices prices are as and 8 . 8 technology x 600.0% and at at 31 5 - 500.0% . Dec 6 x - 19 companies respectively 400.0% (3) l l r Earnings Earnings aisings aisings and acquisitions. (5) Companies exhibiting 300.0% Median: 198% multiples multiples are not are 200.0% . Whilst also 100.0% Small Cap (<$200m) Cap Small trading discount to NTA Companies trading ata the - calendarised; AJL LYL historical LBL ORI SXE EVS TPP XRF CVL EVZ EHL VEE ACF VRS BSA RUL BOL SRG CIM PGX ALQ PRN AQZ SND IMD MIN CDD EGN DCG LCM MYE ANG SWK MCE MSV MLD GNG SVW VMX FWD MAH MND NWH MRM well .
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