Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations Revista
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ISSN 2238-6262 / e-ISSN 2238-6912 Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations Revista Brasileira de Estratégia e Relações Internacionais Porto Alegre, v.4, n.7 | Jan./Jun. 2015 Austral Porto Alegre v.4, n.7 p. 1-256 Jan./Jun. 2015 About the Journal AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations is an essentially academic vehicle, linked to the Brazilian Centre for Strategy and International Relations (NERINT) and to the International Strategic Studies Doctoral Program (PPGEEI) of the Faculty of Economics (FCE) of the Uni- versidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Its pluralist focus aims to contribute to the debate on the international political and economic order from the perspective of the developing countries. The journal publishes original articles and book reviews in English, Portuguese or Spanish about themes that lie in the vast area of Strategy and International Relations, with special interest in issues related to developing countries and the South-South relations, their security issues, the economic, political and diplomatic development of emerging nations and their relations with the traditional powers. The journal’s target audience consists of resear- chers, specialists and postgraduate students of International Relations. The journal will try, through its publication policy, to ensure that each volume has at least one author from each of the great southern continents (Asia, Latin America, Africa), in order to stimulate the debate and the diffu- sion of the knowledge produced in these regions. All of the contributions will be subjected to a scientific review. Indexes Livre! | Latindex | ISN-ETH | Journal TOCs | Sumário de Revistas Brasileiras Beardsley Library Journals | Directory of Open Acess Journals Columbia International Affairs Online This work was supported by the Journal Edition Supportive Program (PAEP) - UFRGS 2 Editorial Team | Equipe Editorial Editor | Editor Paulo Visentini (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Deputy Editor | Editor Adjunto Marco Cepik (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Editorial Board | Conselho Editorial Celso Amorim (Ministério das Relações Exteriores / NERINT, Brazil) Carlos Arturi (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Chris Landsberg (University of Johannesburg, South Africa) Eduardo Migon (Escola de Comando e Estado-maior do Exécito, Brazil) Érico Esteves Duarte (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Fábio Morosini (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Gladys Lechini (Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina) Immanuel Wallerstein (Yale University, United States of America) Marcelo Milan (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Ruchita Beri (Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, India) Edition Assistants| Assistentes de Edição Vitória Gonzalez Rodriguez (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Isadora Caminha Coutinho (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Consultative Board | Conselho Consultivo Adam Habib (University of Johannesburg, South Africa) Amado Luiz Cervo (Universidade de Brasília, Brazil) Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) André Luiz Reis da Silva (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Antônio Carlos Lessa (Universidade de Brasília, Brazil) Antonio Jorge Ramalho (Universidade de Brasília, Brazil) Beatriz Bissio (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Bertrand Badie (Sciences Po, France) Boris F. Martynov (Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia) Carlos Aurélio Pimenta de Faria (Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Brazil) Cristina Pecequillo (Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Brazil) Diego Pautasso (ESPM-Sul / Unisinos, Brazil) Henry Kam Kah (University of Buea, Cameroon) Ilter Turan (Istanbul Bilgi University, Turkey) José Ariosa Pérez (Universidad de la Habana, Cuba) Liu Youfa (China Institute of International Studies, China) Lotfi Kaabi (Institut Tunisien des Études Stratégiques, Tunisia) Lucas Kerr de Oliveira (Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana, Brazil) Luiz Augusto Estrella Faria (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) Luiz Rogério Goldoni (Escola de Comando e Estado-Maior do Exército, Brazil) Mamoudou Gazibo (Université de Montréal, Canada) Marcos Costa Lima (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Brazil) Maria Regina Soares de Lima (IESP, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) Mehdi Parvizi Amineh (University of Amsterdam, Netherlands) Monica Hirst (Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Argentina) Nikolai Mikhailov (Russkiy Mir Foundation, Russia) Sean W. Burges (Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies, Australia) 3 ©Núcleo Brasileiro de Estratégia e Relações Internacionais - UFRGS Cover Art: Vitória Gonzalez Rodriguez Layout Design: Tiago Oliveira Baldasso AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations is available online in English and Portuguese at www.seer.ufrgs.br/austral Contact Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas Av. João Pessoa, 52 sala 33-A - 3° andar - CEP 90040-000 - Centro Porto Alegre/RS - Brazil Phone: +55 51 3308.3963 | Fax: +55 51 3308.3963 E-mail: [email protected] www.seer.ufrgs.br/Austral Cataloging-in-Publication (CIP) Austral : Revista Brasileira de Estratégia e Relações Internacionais = Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations / Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas. - v. 4, n. 7 (Jan./Jun. 2015). – Porto Alegre: NERINT/PPGEEI/FCE/UFRGS, 2012- Semestral. ISSN 2238-6262. e-ISSN 2238-6912 1. Political Science. 2. International Relations. 3. International Politics. 4. Diplomacy. 5. Developing Countries. CDU 327 Biblioteca Gládis Wiebbelling do Amaral, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas da UFRGS. 4 Volume 4, Number 7 (Jan./Jun. 2015) Contents Editor’s Note 7 Paulo Fagundes Visentini Grand Strategy: foreign and defense policy in a changing world 9 Celso Amorim The causes of World War 3: class, geopolitics and hegemony in the 21st 22 Century – a re-reading of Arrighi, through McDermott, Schumpeter and Veblen Steven Colatrella Naval relations between the United Kingdom and Brazil during the 69 Cold War: the case of the purchase of the Vosper frigates João Roberto Martins Filho A comparative analysis of Imperial Japan’s predicament in China 98 and U.S. quagmire in post-Saddam Iraq: similarities, lessons and implications Masahiro Matsumura The emergence of the periphery in the World System: from the 112 Bandung Conference to the Buenos Aires Conference (1955–1978) Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira, Klei Medeiros Angola’s regional foreign policy: changes facing the systemic order 132 (1975-2010) Igor Castellano da Silva Reflections on the Chinese Emergence 165 Cesar Augusto Lambert de Azevedo Development and the WTO: freedom for whom? 190 Rafael Rosa Cedro From the center to the periphery: Holy See’s diplomacy ideological 209 displacement after Pope Francis Anna Carletti 5 Domestic order and Argentina’s foreign policy: the issue of the biofuels 230 Cristian Lorenzo Partners 249 Submission Standards / Previous Issues 252 The responsibility for the content of the articles is of their respective authors. A responsabilidade do conteúdo dos artigos é de seus respectivos autores. Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations e-ISSN 2238-6912 | ISSN 2238-6262| v.4, n.7, Jan./Jun. 2015 6 Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations e-ISSN 2238-6912 | ISSN 2238-6262| v.4, n.7, Jan./Jun. 2015 | p.7-8 EDITOR’S NOTE Paulo Fagundes Visentini1 Two years ago, our editorial was entitled Brazil, the weakest link of the BRICS? (#4), and last year it was named The Economic War and the silence of the Academy (#6). For some readers, they seemed to be exaggerated analy- ses. However, the extreme political polarization of the Brazilian elections and the subsequent accelerated anti-corruption processes of “Operação Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash), on the one hand, and the fast financial-economic and diplomatic-military deterioration of international relations, on the other, show that such editorials made sense. The Brazilian opposition groups (and their external allies), in fact, did not accept the fourth consecutive defeat at the polls in 2014 and seek, through various means, to question the government’s legitimacy. The large interna- tionalized Brazilian companies, the energy and the science and technology sectors have been largely affected, which partially explains the fragile eco- nomic situation. Externally, the opposition seems to make an effort to ward off South American integration, South-South cooperation and the participa- tion in the BRICS in Brazilian diplomatic agenda. As the Brazilian currency and the Chinese stock markets suffer from speculative attacks, Russia is still under pressure due to European and US sanctions, also hindering the preparation of the 2018 Soccer World Cup in that country. On the other hand, in Europe, the issue on the Ukrainian con- flict and the Greek crisis is far secondary on the agenda now. The flow of refugees, which crossed the Mediterranean Sea, from the ungoverned Libya to Italy, was surpassed by others even more expressive. Syrians, Afghans and others walk in massive waves through the Balkans, heading to Germany and other nations. Many rules of the European Union appear to be suspended in a regressive movement. And Hungary, which in 1989 demolished the fence 1 Professor of International Relations at Universidade