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Pennsylvania Primary Brainroom Briefing Book Pennsylvania Primary Brainroom Briefing Book Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel Table of Contents The 2008 Pennsylvania Primary – p. 3 Delegates Available on April 22 – p. 5 Profile of Pennsylvania – p. 6 Demographics – p. 8 Philadelphia – p. 9 The Youth Vote – p. 10 Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Are Very Different – p. 11 Western Pennsylvania – p. 12 The Catholic Vote – p. 13 Voter Registration – p. 14 Pennsylvania Primary History – p. 15 Results from Past Pennsylvania Primary Elections – p. 16 Women & Blacks Rarely Win in Pennsylvania – p. 17 Gun Control – p. 18 Political Advertising – p. 19 Unions and Independent Groups – p. 20 No Street Money?– p. 21 Endnotes – p. 22 2 Pennsylvania Poll Times Polls open at 7:00am EDT. Polls close at 8:00pm EDT. The 2008 Pennsylvania Primary Not since 1976 have Pennsylvania voters had such a decisive say in who would be a presidential nominee. "Pennsylvanians don't often get a chance to matter in presidential primaries, and this year they have the opportunity to play a key role in one of the best political dramas in a generation," said Chris Borick, a politics professor at Muhlenberg College. "They're seizing that opportunity." 1 Clinton is favored to win the state. But with the contest so tight, both candidates are looking to build their vote totals toward a final victory. Obama leads Clinton in overall delegates, but neither is close to achieving the 2,025 needed to win the nomination. Obama also has a thin lead in the popular vote that Clinton would like to overturn before the final ballots are cast in June.2 A strong showing in Pennsylvania for Obama, if not a victory, would keep his accumulated lead in delegates and in the popular vote more or less intact. And it would puncture Clinton’s argument to superdelegates that he is a flawed candidate who cannot compete in the big closely contested states. Losing by a substantial margin would underscore the concern that even with seven weeks to map out a strategy, Obama had been unable to win over the white working-class voters who make up much of this state’s electorate and would be an important part of any nationwide Democratic coalition in the fall. Pennsylvania is the sixth-largest state by population, and apart from Illinois, Obama’s home state, it has the biggest and most diverse economy and population of any of the 27 contests he has won.3 If Obama loses badly in Pennsylvania on April 22, the momentum could shift to Clinton going into May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina vote. A poor showing in another general-election swing state would also raise questions among superdelegates -- the party leaders and elected officials who will probably determine the Democratic nominee -- about whether Obama could beat McCain in November. The Obama campaign has tried to lower its bar for success in Pennsylvania and has signaled an intention to trumpet anything short of a blowout victory by Clinton as one of its most significant triumphs of the primary season. To win in the state, Obama will probably need to run up big totals in and around Philadelphia, in the Lehigh Valley and in south-central Pennsylvania. A health nut, Obama has consumed hot dogs, french fries and homemade chocolates. He has sipped a few Yuengling beers. He has largely skipped arena-filling rallies in favor of town-hall- style events and casual visits, delivering populist appeals to the small-town, working-class voters who have proven most resistant to his candidacy. Despite a few stumbles -- at an Altoona bowling alley, Obama rolled a ball into a gutter on his first try -- political observers say had started to make the inroads with voters he will need to cut into Clinton's lead.4 3 Obama has come under attack for telling a private audience at a California fundraiser that economically frustrated people in small towns get bitter and "cling to guns or religion" to express their feelings. Obama since has said he could have chosen better words and that he regretted offending anyone.5 Both Clinton and McCain have worked to keep Obama’s bitter comments in the news in order to do as much damage to Obama as possible. Clinton has run a state campaign similar to Obama's, mixing small-scale and larger events that focus on pocketbook issues such as middle-class tax cuts and the creation of new manufacturing jobs. Her crowds are also boisterous, filled with shout-outs and standing ovations, along with signs that say "Don't quit." She has taken to comparing herself to Rocky Balboa, the underdog boxer who does not know how to give in or give up. This gritty, ground-level strategy carried Clinton to a convincing victory in Ohio, a state with economic challenges and working-class demographics similar to Pennsylvania's.6 Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided Rasmussen 4/17/08 730 LV 47 44 9 Rasmussen 4/14/08 741 LV 50 41 9 Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 623 LV 46 41 12 ARG 4/11-13/08 600 LV 57 37 4 Quinnipiac 4/9-13/08 2103 LV 50 44 6 4 Delegates Available on April 22 At stake in the primary are the state's 158 Democratic pledged delegates, which will be apportioned according to each candidate's share of the vote. Pennsylvania also has 29 superdelegates. Pennsylvania’s 74 GOP delegates are technically unpledged. State Type Who can participate Dem delegates Rep Delegates Pennsylvania Closed Only registered party 158 in the primary 61 in the primary Primary members may vote in either party’s primary. 103 district level 57 district level 55 statewide 14 statewide* 29 super-delegates 3 RNC delegates Total: 187 Total: 74 Pledged district level Voters will elect 61 delegates are allocated delegates directly in the according to the primary primary, the Republican vote in each of the state's State Committee will 19 congressional districts, choose 10 others in June with a 15% threshold. and the other three Pledged statewide delegates are automatically delegates are allocated selected because they according to the statewide serve on the Republican vote, with a 15% National Committee. threshold. Pennsylvania’s 74 GOP delegates are technically unpledged. Delegates are directly elected on the ballot without indication of their presidential preference. The GOP presidential primary race (the one with the candidate’s names on the primary ballots) is a “beauty contest.” * = 4 of the 14 at-large delegates are allocated to those congressional districts that have best supported GOP candidates over the last four years. Each of those districts receives 1 extra delegate. 5 Profile of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is a swing state not because of a moderate disposition (it's no Iowa or New Mexico) but because it encompasses the incongruities of American society, from the bluest of blue- blooded aristocrats on Philadelphia's Main Line to the bluest of blue-collar guys in the bars of Aliquippa. It's urban; it's rural. It's the Mellon Bank; it's the United Mine Workers. It's Swarthmore; it's South Philly. It's Andy Warhol; it's Joe Paterno. In the Republic's early days, someone dubbed Pennsylvania the Keystone State because it was the place where North joined South. Today it is a psychic keystone. Pennsylvanians have supplied our money, oil, coal, steel--and now our zeitgeist. Political scientist G. Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College in southeastern Pennsylvania perceives a "pattern we've seen in other industrial states: Clinton starts with a big lead, Obama rushes in with a lot of TV and events, and the race tightens." Obama has barnstormed the state with newly detailed proposals for the economy and health care. He is outspending Clinton nearly 3 to 1 on the airwaves, Madonna says. Two of his most heavily played ads stress his humble roots and sound the populist trumpet. Yet Clinton's poll numbers in the state have averaged in the high 40s since early February. Her people don't appear to be budging.7 Pennsylvania has a complex political landscape, one that is largely favorable to Clinton. The western part of the state is grittier, the east is more prosperous. Obama faces demographic disadvantages. While he draws young people and those with college degrees, Pennsylvania has one of the highest concentrations of people over 65 (15 percent, compared with a national average of 12 percent) and one of the lowest of people with college degrees (22 percent, compared with a national average of 24 percent).8 Stumping for votes in the sprawling state of Pennsylvania is like running three separate races at once. One distinct battleground in the April 22 primary is the region in the southeastern corner of the state dominated by Philadelphia, with its large immigrant and African-American communities, prosperous suburbs and liberal East Coast sensibility. The western end of the state revolves around post-industrial Pittsburgh, heavy with elderly and blue-collar voters. In between is a vast, largely rural expanse that usually leans Republican, but is also dotted with faded industrial towns that are crucial for any Democrat seeking to rack up votes. Clinton won Ohio by focusing on white, ethnic middle-class and working-class voters' concerns about economic pressures such as high gas prices and soaring health-care costs, and the loss of jobs to foreign competition. Those voters dominate the western end of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania also happens to have the third-highest percentage of residents age 65 or over, behind Florida and West Virginia. Older voters tend to support Clinton.9 Few doubt that Obama will carry Philadelphia, where more than 40 percent of Democrats are African-American.
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