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Sendai + SDG – Covid 19 = Resilience Planning for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth By Elmer Mercado, EnP, fpiep 07 November 2020, 29th PIEP National Convention 5 Current and Future Global Urban Challenges (UN Habitat, 2009) Economic challenges ▪ impacts of global recession; unemployment/underemployment; ▪ increased in-migration to urban centers, increased poverty; ▪ increased pressure for social/economic/infrastructure services --- 2050 – global food crisis due to massive losses/conversion of arable lands into settlements or other uses (Int’l Institute of Population) and WATER --- loss of arable and open lands; rate of conversion of agricultural land in developing countries =5-7% (depending on aggregate increase in farmlands , i.e. conversion of forestlands to agriculture); Global ave = 2%; --rate of deforestation in the Philippines 100,000 hectares/yr. to give way to agricultural lands 5 Code Municipality Land Cover 2002 2012 Difference % 1 Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 3,551.90 284.72 (3,267.18 Deforestation-92 1 Built-up areas 1,193.21 6,999.27 5,806.06) 487 1 Antipolo City Coconut plantations 505.75 367.25 (138.50) -27 Land 1 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland Land 24,518.39 21,893.92 (2,624.47) -11 conversion Settlement1 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent conversion 2,972.47 4,977.45 2,004.98 67 Expansion1 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 2,527.22 746.32 (1,780.9)1 -70Massive 2 Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 2,151.11 257.35 (1,893.7)6 Deforestation-88 2 Baras Built-up areas 227.78 227.78 100 2 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland Land1,999.27 1,957.45 (41.82 ) -2Massive 2 Grassland, grass covering >70 percent conversion91.20 91.49 (0.30) Deforestation0 3 Built-up areas 207.12 2,292.14 (2,085.02) 1007 Settlement 3 Closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50 percent 3,369.40 2,616.35 (753.05) -22 Expansion 3 Rodriguez CultivatedSettlement area mixed with brushland/grassland 9,988.45 19,224.79 9,236.35 92 3 Grassland,Expansion grass covering >70 percent 234.91 372.81 137.89 59 3 Open canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percent 11,255.96 2,260.77 (8,995.20) -80 Land LAND COVER CHANGE, LGUsCHANGE, by COVER LAND 4 Built-up areas 142.85 2,642.43 2,499.59 1750 conversion 4 Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 3,198.75 2,896.89 (301.86) -9 4 San Mateo Open canopy,Settlement mature trees covering < 50 percent 183.95 187.72 3.77 2 4 Arable land,Expansion crops mainly cereals and sugar 2,201.50 (2,201.50) -100 5 Arable land, crops mainly cereals and sugar 1,119.27 373.82 (745.46) -Deforestation67 conversion 5 Built-up areas 117.14 1,240.11 1,122.98 959 5 Coconut plantations 55.16 3.85 ( 51.31) -93 5 Tanay Cultivated area mixed with brushland/grassland 18,215.47 16,638.21 (1,577.26) -9 5 SettlementGrassland, grass covering >70 percent 4,491.87 7,131.86 2,639.99 59 5 OpenExpansion canopy, mature trees covering < 50 percentLand 1,751.77 527.91 (1,223.86) -70 5 Closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50 percentconversion 168.56 (168.56) -100 Total 96,212.64 96,212.64 (0.00) 0 6 Social-spatial challenges ❑ segregration of high income gated communities and enclaves of poverty and ethnic communities; ❑ expansion of informal communities both within the city and the urban periphery “fringe”; ❑ Bulk of new ‘urban migrants’ will be living in peri-urban, urban fringe, peripheral areas of NCR or Greater NCR (MM, CL, ST) ▪ 40% informal settlement ▪ 2.5M housing backlog; 6.8M demand (2022) Source: NEDA Central Luzon Regional Dev’t Plan 2017-2022 Climate change and DRR Ondoy/Ketsana (2009) 1 3 Sendong/Washi (2010) 1 4 Pablo/Bhopa (2012) 1 5 Yolanda/Haiyan (2013) 1 6 Public health and pandemic challenges Since the Great Influenza Pandemic in 1918, COVID-19 is the 6th global health pandemic and its source is microbes found on animals – UN Environment Programme The frequency of disease outbreaks has Deforestation has increased been increasing steadily. Between 1980 and 2013 there were 12,012 recorded outbreaks, steadily over the past two comprising 44 million individual cases and decades and is linked to 31% of affecting every country in the world. – World disease outbreaks such as Ebola, Economic Forum Zika and Nipah viruses - WHO 1.7 million undiscovered viruses exist in wildlife and birds, 850,000 = potential to infect people 50,000-70,000 plant species are harvested for Successful drug development is not always about advanced traditional or modern synthetic biology - there is medicine, also a link to nature-based while around 50% of modern solutions and biodiversity as drugs have been developed researchers are increasingly from natural products that are “reverting to nature” to look threatened by biodiversity for new therapeutic options. loss Land-use changes and environmental pressures induce modifications in biodiversity and ecosystem functions, leading to loss of ecosystem services (ES) which could then affect human societies. IPBES, 2018. Population and demographics challenge in 20301 23% increase (2015) ❑72% of total population will be 40 and below; 70-79 growth 125% ▪ 0-14 = 30%; 38.4 million ▪ 15-64 = 64%; 81.92 million (working age) ▪ 65+ = 6%; 7.68 million ▪ 0-30 = 72.5 million or 57% of total population; ▪ 30-39 = biggest growth with 6.0 million ❑Median age (2030) = 27 (RP), 37 (Asia- Pacific); ▪ (2012) = 23 (RP); 31(Asia-Pac) ❑Urban population 57% from 49.1% (2012) ▪ 2012-2030 – 51.7% urban growth rate (72 million); rural growth 13.3% (55.8 million); ▪ RP more urbanised than Asia-Pacific (average) in 2012 and 2030 ❑ Cities with more than 1 million population ▪ Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan, Davao (2012) ▪ Cebu, Antipolo, Pasig and Taguig, CDO (2030) ▪ Top 10 cities = 17.2 million; 24.7% Institutional challenges ▪ capacity of governments to respond to urban development pressure, governance and public participation Impacts of Urban Economic Growth Disaster and Hazard Mitigation Urban Development and Growth Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 outlines seven clear targets and four priorities for action to prevent new and reduce existing disaster risks: (i) Understanding disaster risk; (ii) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; (iii)Investing in disaster reduction for resilience and; (iv)Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. What is Climate resilience? Concept of climate resilience ▪ “Resilience concentrates on enhancing the performance of a system in the face of multiple hazards rather than preventing or mitigating the loss of assets due to a specific event” ▪ moves away from traditional disaster risk reduction based understanding, which is founded on risk assessments that relate to specific hazards. Instead, it accepts the possibility that a wide range of disruptive events both stresses and shocks may occur but are not necessarily predictable What is Climate Risk Management and Planning? What is Climate Risk Management? ▪ Comprehensive Climate Risk Management (CRM) is “a systemic approach that seeks to anticipate, avoid, prevent, and finance risks as well as absorb remaining impacts from extreme weather eventsClimate and slow onset changes.” Climate mitigation Climate adaptation resilience ▪ aims to reduce and address the negative consequences of climate change along the entire risk continuum: averting climate risks through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, minimising climate risks through adaptation and risk management to managing residual climate risks ▪ It thus builds on lessons learnt from climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk management (DRR) ▪ embedded in a sustainable development framework. Why? ▪ Resilience building therefore, should not focus exclusively on protecting assets but also on reducing the vulnerability of poor people by improving access to basic services and housing which is, in effect, the implementation of the SDGs; combined ▪ disaster risk reduction interventions such as water conservation and flood protection may generate lower gains in avoided asset losses, but larger gains in well-being. “Efforts to reduce poverty and build resilience are complementary.” Win-win solution to achieve resilience ▪ to invest in ambitious mitigation action to avoid the unmanageable, and comprehensive and holistic adaptation action to manage the unavoidable–including better management of ecosystems and their services, improved governance, and economic policies that support sustainable development. ▪ Paris Agreement - “urges Parties to enhance understanding, action and support in areas such as, “Resilience of communities, livelihoods and ecosystems”. Ecosystems- People-centered based/Interactive Ecosystems People Livelihoods Livelihoods Ecosystems People "Restoring forests and protect at least 30% of other ecosystems can the planet's oceans help to contribute to and land by 2030 in 20-30% of what is order to minimize the needed to meet goals decline in biodiversity regarding climate –UN Convention for change.” –UN IPCC Biodiversity, 2020, “There is thus an increasing need to develop plans that sustain ecosystems and the services they supply (to society)” - Costanza et.al., 2017. How? Integrative, inclusive, inter-active, intertwined, innovative, imaginative and intimate People Livelihoods Ecosystems Approach to Sustainable Land Use and Resilient Planning – from ‘sector to systems’ thinking ❑ strategic rather than comprehensive; flexible rather than end-state oriented; adaptive management; “systems thinking”

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