ISSN 0111-1760 University of Otago Economics Discussion Papers No. 0715 November 2007 Shifting the ‘goal posts’: What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points? Niven Winchester Address for correspondence: Niven Winchester* Department of Economics University of Otago P.O. Box 56 Dunedin 9054 New Zealand Email:
[email protected] Tel: + 64 (0)3 479 8648 Fax: + 64 (0)3 479 8174 * I would like to thank Ray Stefani, Dorian Owen, Stephen Dobson, Liam Lenten and seminar participants at the Universities of Colorado (at Boulder) and Wyoming, and La Trobe University for helpful comments and suggestions. Remaining errors are my responsibility. Abstract Competition points are awarded in sports events to determine which participants qualify for the playoffs or to identify the champion. We use competition points to measure strength in a prediction model and choose competition points to maximise prediction accuracy. This allows us to determine the allocation of competition points that most appropriately rewards strong teams. Our analysis focuses on Super Rugby as the characteristics of this competition closely match our modelling assumptions. We find that the current allocation of competition points is not optimal and suggest an alternative. Our findings have implications for other competitions. Keywords: Competition points; Nonlinear least squares; Sports predictions 1. Introduction Administrators of sports competitions involving round-robin or group stages typically award competition points in order to rank participants. These rankings are used to determine which competitors advance to the playoffs or identify the overall winner. It is, therefore, important that organisers employ allocation criteria that accurately reflect the strength of participants.