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(JEBA) Application of Altman Modified Z-Score to Predict Financial

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(JEBA) Application of Altman Modified Z-Score to Predict Financial Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics (JEBA) Volume 4 No. 1, Juni 2019 Jurnal home page: http://academicjournal.yarsi.ac.id/jeba Application of Altman Modified Z-Score to Predict Financial Distress in the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry Rianti Fifriani1 , Perdana ahyu Santosa2 1Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas YARSI, Jakarta 2 rogram Master of Management, School of Graduate Studies, Universitas YARSI, Jakarta Article Abstract Information Bankruptcy prediction is needed to assess the prospect of going concern and ________________ sustainability of the corporations in the future. This study aims to predict the History of article: Received: 10-04-2019 bankruptcy of corporates with the Altman Z-Score Modification model in the Approved: 2,-0--2019 telecommunications industry in Indonesia. The data used are the financial u.lished: 30-0--2019 statements of the telecommunications industry that listing on the Indonesia ________________ Stock xchange for the period 2011-2015. Samples for this study uses purposive Keywords: sampling according to company criteria. The results of the study using the Telecommunication, Altman Z-score modification method found two potentially bankrupt companies, financial distress, namely Bakrie Telecom, Tbk, and Smartfren, Tbk. (hile Indosat, Tbk, and bankruptcy, Altman )L Axiata, Tbk have high financial distress potential due to liquidity and modified Z-Score profitability problems that tend to weaken. Meanwhile, Telkom Indonesia, Tbk, and Infracom Inovisi financial concessions are relatively healthy and have the right business expectations Abstrak Prediksi kebangkrutan diperlukan untuk menilai prospek going concern perusahaan di masa depan. Studi ini bermaksud untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan dengan model Altman Modifikasi Z-Score pada industri telekomunikasi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah laporan finansial emiten industri telekomunikasi di ursa Efek Indonesia periode 2011-2015. Sampel studi ini menggunakan purposive sampling sesuai kriteria perusahaan. Hasil penelitian yang menggunakan metode Altman modifikasi (-score menemukan dua perusahaan berpotensi bangkrut, yaitu akrie Telecom, Tbk dan Smartfren, Tbk. Sedangkan Indosat, Tbk dan X, A-iata, Tbk memiliki potensi financial distress yang tinggi karena masalah likuiditas dan profitabilitas yang cenderung melemah. Sedangkan kondisi finansial Telkom Indonesia, Tbk dan Ino.isi Infracom, Tbk tergolong sehat dan memiliki ekspektasi bisnis yang baik. *correspondence to: Perdana Wahyu Santosa ISSN 2527-7 99 (print)$ 2528-363 (online) Email: [email protected] INTRODUCTION Financial pro.lems e0perienced .y the company characteri1es corporate .ankruptcy, generally starting from li2uidity pro.lems and then solvency. If management does not immediately pay attention to the financial pro.lems, the company will e0perience financial distress and then profoundly in .ankruptcy pro.lems and li2uidation 5Fithri, 20106 Santosa, 20117. Companies that financially default are companies that are una.le to pay their o.ligations at maturity even though the total assets e0ceed their total lia.ilities 5Fifrianti 9 Santosa, 20186 Van Horne 9 Wachowics, 20117. The dynamics of a company's financial performance are influenced .y an increasingly tur.ulent .usiness environment and increasingly fierce competition. Changes in the Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics, 4517 2019, 23-3, telecommunications .usiness environment in Indonesia depend on political, economic, social, and information technology dynamics. Companies that are una.le to adapt to changing environments will e0perience .usiness pro.lems and investment risks. Companies always face various risks, especially .usiness risks, financial risks, and country risks that often create financial distress and .ankruptcy 5Fifrianti 9 Santosa, 20187. Bankruptcy or .ankruptcy of a company usually .egins with financial distress that .egins with income uncertainty, inventory pro.lems, uncollecti.le receiva.les, and assets turnover to decreased profita.ility 5Santosa, 20107. redictions a.out the company's financial condition, related to .ankruptcy, are essential information for stakeholders, namely creditors, investors, regulatory authorities, auditors, and management 5Butet, 20127. Financial distress is a stage of the declining financial condition of a company .efore .ankruptcy. For this reason, an early introduction to the condition of companies e0periencing financial distress is essential. Earlier information a.out the financial distress conditions in the company provides an opportunity for management, owners, investors, regulators, and other stakeholders to make consistent efforts 5Brigham 9 Houston, 201-7. Management and owners have an interest in making efforts to prevent more severe conditions towards .ankruptcy. Investors have an interest in making an investment or divestment decisions and capital structure restructuring 5Su.rahmanyam, 20147. Fifrianti 9 Santosa 520187 stated that financial distress conditions could .e identified earlier .efore they occur .y using an early warning system model. This model can .e generally used to identify the symptoms of financial distress in corporations, henceforth management makes efforts to improve capital structure and company li2uidity .efore financial conditions .ecome increasingly critical or .ankruptcy 5Santosa, 20107. Bankruptcy researches are 2uite massive, and several of them have developed prediction models that try to help potential investors and creditors in choosing the company where to put their funds so as not to get caught up in the financial distress pro.lem. The prediction models of .ankruptcy are among others, put forward .y Altman 519-87, Springate 519787, Ahlson 519807, and BmiCewski 519837. Internal and e0ternal pro.lems of the company are two crucial things that trigger .ankruptcy in a company. According to Fithri 520107, pro.lems from the internal factors are usually caused .y the strategies implemented .y management, not under market conditions, or the management does not pay close attention to changing market developments, so the profits derived .y the company cannot cover their o.ligations. While pro.lems from the e0ternal side, usually triggered .y economic conditions in Indonesia and in the world that is still uncertain. The cause of the high risk of a company e0periencing financial difficulties or even .ankruptcy if the company is not ready to face current developments 5Fifrianti 9 Santosa, 20187. The telecommunications industry has a .ig .usiness and technological risks so that the industry is vulnera.le to changes in its .usiness environment, including strict government regulations and favoring SAEs. Besides, the telecommunications industry re2uires a large investment, rapid technological development, sharp tariff competition, and rapid changes in customer tastes, especially millennials. For e0ample, the case of companies e0periencing financial distress is T. A0is Telecom Indonesia, which merged with DE, as 2uoted in tri.unnews.com 520147, CEA of T. A0is said that the merger and ac2uisition of A0is .y DE was the right step to overcome the company's financial difficulties. Each year, A0is loses Rp2.3 trillion and has .een in arrears in paying BH Fre2uency o.ligations. After the approval of the corporate action, A0is is finally willing to pay BH worth Rp 1 trillion at the end of Decem.er 2013. Financial statements issued .y companies are one source of information a.out the company's financial position, performance, and changes in the company's financial position, which is very useful Journal of Economics and Business Aseanomics, 4517 2019, 23-3, to support the right decision making. Financial data in financial statements are useful to see the condition of the company's financial health. LITERATURE RE)IE The method used in the Altman Model 5B-Score7 is Multiple Discriminant Analysis with five main types of financial ratios namely Working Capital to Total Assets, Retained Earnings to Total Assets, Earnings Before Interest and Ta0es to Total Assets, Book Value of E2uity to Book Value of De.t, and Sales to Total Asset 5Brigham 9 Houston, 201-7. The use of the Altman method is commonly used .y practitioners to predict a company's .ankruptcy. Besides this method, there are also other methods used to predict financial distress and .ankruptcy, namely the BmiCewski Model, and the Springate Model 5Su.rahmanyan, 20147. The Springate model is a model developed .y Springate 519787 using multidiscriminant analysis, using 40 companies as samples. This model can .e used to predict financial distress with an accuracy level of 92.,G. Using the same model and method, Botheras 519797 o.tained results with an accuracy rate of 88G. Sands 519807 conducted a test with an accuracy rate of 83G 5Fanny and Saputra 20007. The Springate Model 5S-Score7 uses multidiscriminant analysis, with Working Capital to Total Assets, Net rofit Before Interest and Ta0es to Total Assets, Net rofit Before Ta0es to Current Eia.ilities, and Sales to Total Assets 5Brigham 9 Houston, 201-7. Altman Z-Score Model Altman discriminant analysis 519-87 is one of the statistical, financial techni2ues that researchers can use to predict the e0istence of financial distress or .ankruptcy of a company. Altman has communicated several ratios into predictive models with statistical techni2ues, according to Fifrianti and Santosa 520187 are: IThe discrimination used to predict .ankruptcy is a very well-known term called the B-Score.I B-Score is a score determined
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