Brexit Timeline: Events by Nigel Walker
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It Could Get Much Worse Once Brexit Is Done!
It could get much worse once Brexit is done! By Dr. Steven McCabe, Associate Professor, Institute of Design and Economic Acceleration (IDEA) and Senior Fellow, Centre for Brexit Studies, Birmingham City University The current general election may be about Brexit. However, it is probably one of the most important since the second world war. It will undoubtedly have a profound influence on the way in which British society develops over not just the period until the next national vote, whenever that may be (depending on whether there is a majority for any party), but future generations. In any ‘normal’ general election, we’d be assumed to be voting on the basis of the range of promises made in the manifestos of political parties standing. Though each of the parties have floated a number of commitments, the one big question that still dominates debate is what approach they will take to the way in which the United Kingdom (UK) will, or will not, leave the European Union (EU). Assuming the opinion polls are correct, always dangerous, we cannot expect Jo Swinson’s LibDem Party to win enough seats to form a government. Accordingly, the notion that after 12th December the revocation of Article 50 which, following a majority vote by Parliament in March 2017, triggered the process for the UK’s departure from the EU, should be seen as utterly bizarre. Though surprises do happen, this would be off the scale of what is credible. Opinion polls suggest that Labour will probably not win a majority. Though, of course, the polls were wrong in the last election in 2017, Labour winning sufficient seats to form a majority government seems a stretch for the imagination. -
Attitudes to Infrastructure in Brexit Britain
Attitudes to infrastructure in Brexit Britain What do leave voters want from the government’s infrastructure revolution? Foreword The UK is going through a moment of change. But this leaves a number of questions: The election result indicated an ushering in of a new era. Austerity is making way for a post-Brexit • How is government going to use country where nations, regions, constituencies infrastructure to show that Brexit can make a and voters outside London and the South East real difference to people’s lives? play a greater role in political discourse. • What kind of infrastructure do people At no point in a generation have communities who voted to leave want? The vote across the UK played such a central role in leave demographic is one of the biggest government direction. constituencies and holds enormous power in the UK, having dominated the last election. The 2019 election debate was dominated by What does this group really want? Brexit and infrastructure, and how transformative forces can deliver change in seemingly forgotten • How is infrastructure going to address their parts of the UK. concerns and how should the industry build support amongst this demographic? People who voted to leave the EU in 2016 did so partly because of frustration with Europe, but also • What does the confluence of Brexit and in response to the sense that communities have infrastructure tell us about the UK in the been left behind. 2020s? Government now wants to take action and the In this report, we set out to consider these public is expecting to see results. -
Article the Empire Strikes Back: Brexit, the Irish Peace Process, and The
ARTICLE THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK: BREXIT, THE IRISH PEACE PROCESS, AND THE LIMITATIONS OF LAW Kieran McEvoy, Anna Bryson, & Amanda Kramer* I. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................610 II. BREXIT, EMPIRE NOSTALGIA, AND THE PEACE PROCESS .......................................................................615 III. ANGLO-IRISH RELATIONS AND THE EUROPEAN UNION ...........................................................................624 IV. THE EU AND THE NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS .......................................................................633 V. BREXIT, POLITICAL RELATIONSHIPS AND IDENTITY POLITICS IN NORTHERN IRELAND ....637 VI. BREXIT AND THE “MAINSTREAMING” OF IRISH REUNIFICATION .........................................................643 VII. BREXIT, POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE GOVERNANCE OF SECURITY ..................................646 VIII. CONCLUSION: BREXIT AND THE LIMITATIONS OF LAW ...............................................................................657 * The Authors are respectively Professor of Law and Transitional Justice, Senior Lecturer and Lecturer in Law, Queens University Belfast. We would like to acknowledge the comments and advice of a number of colleagues including Colin Harvey, Brian Gormally, Daniel Holder, Rory O’Connell, Gordon Anthony, John Morison, and Chris McCrudden. We would like to thank Alina Utrata, Kevin Hearty, Ashleigh McFeeters, and Órlaith McEvoy for their research assistance. As is detailed below, we would also like to thank the Economic -
No-Deal Brexit – What Does It Mean?
No-deal Brexit – what does it mean? Jeff Twentyman 19 September 2019 / The road to the exit (currently) 23 May 2019 12 April 2019 European 9 September 2019 End of first 4 September 2019 Parliament • Royal Assent for European extension to • European Union elections Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act Article 50 (Withdrawal (No 6) Bill – ruling out a no-deal 2019 23 June 2016 Brexit passes all stages • Second Government motion Brexit referendum - in House of Commons calling for an early general 51.9% in favour of 14 November 2018 • Government’s motion election defeated leaving the EU Brexit deal agreed by calling for an early • Prorogation of Parliament for 5 UK and EU negotiators 7 June 2019 General Election weeks to 14 October Theresa May 23 July 2019 defeated steps down Boris Johnson 2016 2017 2018 2019 appointed 5 / 6 September 2019 • House of Lords pass The 29 March 2019 3 September 2019 European Union Original Brexit • start of new Parliamentary term (Withdrawal) (No 6) Bill 29 March 2017 date 15 January, 13 March, • MP’s vote to take control UK triggers of House of Commons “Article 50” 29 March 2019 “Meaningful votes” – 27 March 2019 business Government defeated MPs’ “indicative • Start of legal proceedings votes” to overturn planned inconclusive prorogation / No-deal Brexit – what does it mean? 2 The road to the exit (currently) (cont’d) 14 October 2019 Start of new Parliamentary session and Queen’s Speech (if no general election called) 19 October 2019 31 December 2020 Latest date for the End of transition period PM to send a letter (unless -
Alastair Campbell
Alastair Campbell Adviser, People’s Vote campaign 2017 – 2019 Downing Street Director of Communications 2000 – 2003 Number 10 Press Secretary 1997– 2000 5 March 2021 This interview may contain some language that readers may find offensive. New Labour and the European Union UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE): Going back to New Labour, when did immigration first start to impinge in your mind as a potential problem when it came to public opinion? Alastair Campbell (AC): I think it has always been an issue. At the first election in 1997, we actually did do stuff on immigration. But I can remember Margaret McDonagh, who was a pretty big fish in the Labour Party then, raising it often. She is one of those people who does not just do politics in theory, in an office, but who lives policy. She is out on the ground every weekend, she is knocking on doors, she is talking to people. I remember her taking me aside once and saying, ‘Listen, this immigration thing is getting bigger and bigger. It is a real problem’. That would have been somewhere between election one (1997) and election two (2001), I would say. Politics and government are often about very difficult competing pressures. So, on the one hand, we were trying to show business that we were serious about business and that we could be trusted on the economy. One of the messages that business was giving us the whole time was that Page 1/31 there were labour shortages, skill shortages, and we were going to need more immigrants to come in and do the job. -
No Deal Brexit: Issues, Impacts and Implications
NONO DEAL BREXIT ISSUES, IMPACTS, IMPLICATIONS NO DEAL BREXIT: ISSUES, IMPACTS, IMPLICATIONS Foreword By law, the UK will leave the European Union at 11pm UK time on 31 October. This situation could, of course, change. The British government could decide to revoke Article 50 altogether. Alternatively, if the UK makes otheran request, the European Council, acting unanimously, could agree to another extension of the Article 50 process. As we saw in April, the European Council will ultimately determine the length of any such extension. But, qually,e the UK Government is not bound to accept any extension offered by the EU. At the time of writing, however, it is hard to imagine circumstances in which Boris Johnson would either revoke or request an extension. There still remains the possibility that parliament might attempt to prevent a no deal outcome, which we discuss in our recent Endgame Report. Yet for the moment a no deal outcome remains a real possibility, and one for which both the UK and the EU will need to prepare. If the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement, it will become a ‘third country’ – that is, no longer a Member State - with respect to the EU as of 11pm UK time on 31 October 2019. EU law will cease to apply to the UK from that moment onwards. In what follows, we attempt to draw together what we know to assess what no deal means, how prepared we (and the EU) are, what the impacts might be, and the broader implications. There is much we do not, and indeed cannot, know about these issues but, given the centrality of the no deal debate, it is clear that this should not prevent people from considering what it might mean for the country. -
Brexit, Systemic Risk, and a Warning for a Changing World
Brexit, Systemic Risk, and a Warning for a Changing World David Korowicz 1. Introduction It was only after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union that people began to seriously consider how it might be achieved. Some had assumed it would be trivial. For them, even waiting out the two-year official notice period prior to departure was an indulgence that displayed an unpatriotic lack of resolve. Most were not so sanguine. But on all sides, there was a general unawareness of just how complex and risk-laden the departure would be. This only gradually came into view. Months after the run- down had been triggered it was discovered that over 759 treaties would have to be renegotiated. There was growing alarm that the intricate web of Just-In-Time logistics that enable industry, supermarkets and medical care could be profoundly disrupted, especially if the UK left without a deal. Each week new concerns came to the fore, for example, how do you slaughter millions of livestock and dispose of the carcases if the market for them evaporates? When the scale of the potential disruption became clearer, military contingency planners were drafted into various government departments to help direct the response. As the first (March 29th) departure date approached, leaked Cabinet Office documents emphasised that Operation Yellowhammer, the contingency command and control structure, could be overwhelmed in the case of a no-deal exit. Sources quoted said that the planning was ‘too little, too late’, echoing the warnings of business and union leaders about the preparedness of their companies. -
Preparing for a No Deal Brexit Introduction the Risk of the UK
Preparing for a No Deal Brexit Introduction The risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal remains very real, even though Parliament has passed an Act to try and prevent such a prospect. The Act, which Parliament passed before it was prorogued on 10 September, requires the Prime Minister to write to the EU requesting an extension to Article 50 until the end of January 2020 if the form of the UK leaving the EU has not been agreed by Parliament by 19 October 2019. All 27 Member States must agree to the extension. Until we know for certain that an extension has been agreed and accepted, the risk of a no deal exit by 31 October remains a very real prospect. Securing an extension to enable further negotiations between the UK Government and the EU 27 about a possible Withdrawal Agreement might – in the worst case scenario – do no more than delay the risk of a no deal exit by a few months. It is for this reason the Welsh Government will continue to prepare for a no deal exit. The potential impacts of a no deal exit are significant and far-reaching. This paper sets out the Welsh Government’s overview of the main strategic risks of no deal for Wales and explains the actions we are putting in place to mitigate them as far as is possible. These include assumptions set out in the Operation Yellowhammer documents, published by the UK Government on 11 September. We have always said that leaving the EU without a deal would be catastrophic for Wales and should not be considered an acceptable outcome – it should be avoided at all costs. -
Boris Johnson Gets Short Shrift from European Union Leaders in Brexit Talks
ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ – ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎﻥ AA-AA ﭼﻮ ﮐﺸﻮﺭ ﻧﺒﺎﺷـﺪ ﺗﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒـــــــﺎﺩ ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﻡ ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﻳﮏ ﺗﻦ ﻣــــﺒﺎﺩ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮ ﺗﻦ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﺘﻦ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻪ ﮐﺸﻮﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺷﻤﻦ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ www.afgazad.com [email protected] ﺯﺑﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﺋﯽ European Languages By Richard Tyler 18.09.2019 Boris Johnson gets short shrift from European Union leaders in Brexit talks Boris Johnson’s first visit to meet senior European Union (EU) figures since he took power in July ended with the UK prime minister sent packing without receiving any concessions on Brexit. After meeting Johnson, his host, Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, was forced to address the press alone next to an empty podium—as Johnson had crept out the back door to avoid noisy protesters. Speaking to the Mail on Sunday in advance of his trip, Johnson had sought to present a tough-guy image, ridiculously evoking the Marvel superhero, the Incredible Hulk. He told the paper that if Brexit negotiations broke down, he would ignore the Commons vote ordering him to delay the UK’s exit from the EU on October 31. Like the Hulk, Britain www.afgazad.com 1 [email protected] would break out of the “manacles” of the EU, adding, “The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets.” The European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt dubbed his comment “infantile,” asking, “Is the EU supposed to be scared by this?” with an EU diplomat saying Johnson less resembled the green giant than “Rumpelstiltskin,” who loses his power when his true name is revealed. -
ENG304 the Rise of the Novel
Easier Said than Done: The Brexit Saga from the Perspective of Northern Ireland Jan Jędrzejewski University of Ulster Lille, 23 January 2020 Britain in the EU: a brief timeline • 1973 – Britain joins the EEC during the premiership of the Conservative PM Edward Heath • 1975 – a referendum organised by Harold Wilson’s Labour government confirms Britain’s membership • 1985 – the Conservative government of Margaret Thatcher ratifies the Single European Act • 1992 – the Conservative government of John Major ratifies the Maastricht Treaty Euroscepticism in Britain • early Labour opposition to joining the EEC • 1983 – Michael Foot’s Labour electoral campaign including a pledge to leave • increasing scepticism towards political unification in the Conservative Party • 1991 – the UK Independence Party founded by Alan Sked • 1994 – the Referendum Party founded by Sir James Goldsmith • 2010s – increasing support for UKIP under the leadership of Nigel Farage (from 2006) In the run-up to the referendum • increasingly strong presence of the Eurosceptic lobby within the Conservative party from the late 1980s onwards • pro-European Conservative PM David Cameron under increasing pressure from within the party, and from UKIP, to promise a referendum on Europe in his 2015 electoral campaign • Cameron’s 2015 victory and subsequent renegotiation of terms of Britain’s membership • date for the referendum set for 23 June 2016 23 June 2016 referendum campaign (1) • formal party support for Remain: Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Scottish Nationalists, Plaid -
Brexit: What Are the Lessons?
Brexit: What are the lessons? Frank Vibert* London School of Economics The political setting In June 2016 the electorate in the United Kingdom voted in favour of leaving the EU where the UK had been a member since 1973.Turnout was high (over 70%) but the margin was small (52% for leave and 48% for remain). The vote in favour of leaving ushered in a period of great instability in British politics, unprecedented since the end of the Second World War. It lasted until December 2019 when the Conservative party won a general election under a new Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) providing it with a decisive parliamentary majority that has enabled it to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. The UK is now no longer a member of the EU. During this same period, the EU itself has been under strain for reasons in addition to the UK’s exit. There has been a lack of agreement on the appropriate fiscal policy stance across countries belonging to the Eurozone. The construction of a more resilient single currency is seen as “unfinished businesses”. In addition, a number of member * Associate researcher at the Center for Risk Analysis and Regulation (carr) at the London School of Economics. Member of the Foundation for Law, Justice and Society at Wolfson College. Oxford. The author is grateful to professor Thierry Madies, University of Fribourg, for comments on an early draft, Temas de coyuntura and to John Madeley, Research Associate, Dept. of Government, London School of Economics. 705 states in Eastern Europe are seen to be in breach of the 1993 Copenhagen criteria relating to the requirement for member states to adhere to demo- cratic values, human rights and the rule of law. -
Contingency Preparations for Exiting the EU with No Deal
A picture of the National Audit Office logo Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General Cabinet Office: Civil Contingencies Secretariat Contingency preparations for exiting the EU with no deal HC 2058 SESSION 2017–2019 12 MARCH 2019 Our vision is to help the nation spend wisely. Our public audit perspective helps Parliament hold government to account and improve public services. The National Audit Office scrutinises public spending for Parliament and is independent of government. The Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG), Sir Amyas Morse KCB, is an Officer of the House of Commons and leads the NAO. The C&AG certifies the accounts of all government departments and many other public sector bodies. He has statutory authority to examine and report to Parliament on whether departments and the bodies they fund, nationally and locally, have used their resources efficiently, effectively, and with economy. The C&AG does this through a range of outputs including value-for-money reports on matters of public interest; investigations to establish the underlying facts in circumstances where concerns have been raised by others or observed through our wider work; landscape reviews to aid transparency; and good-practice guides. Our work ensures that those responsible for the use of public money are held to account and helps government to improve public services, leading to audited savings of £741 million in 2017. Cabinet Office: Civil Contingencies Secretariat Contingency preparations for exiting the EU with no deal Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed on 12 March 2019 This report has been prepared under Section 6 of the National Audit Act 1983 for presentation to the House of Commons in accordance with Section 9 of the Act Sir Amyas Morse KCB Comptroller and Auditor General National Audit Office 11 March 2019 HC 2058 | £10.00 The Civil Contingencies Secretariat sits within Cabinet Office and aims to increase UK government’s ability to respond to and recover from civil emergencies.