Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on : The Science, Management and Policy Challenges Ahead Defenders of Wildlife Defenders of Wildlife is a national, nonprofit membership organization dedicated to the protection of all native wild and animals in their natural communities.

Acknowledgements This report is a synthesis of Innovations in : Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife, a national symposium hosted by Defenders of Wildlife in Washington, D.C., on September 27, 2007. Support for the symposium was provided by the Wilburforce Foundation and Dr. Benjamin C. Hammett. The complete proceedings of the symposium are available at www.defenders.org/symposium2007.

Author: E. Jean Brennan, Ph.D.; Scientist, Defenders of Wildlife Editor: Kate Davies Designer: Rick Callender

Preferred citation: Brennan, E.J. (2008) Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife: The Science, Management and Policy Challenges Ahead. Defenders of Wildlife. Washington, D.C.

©2008 Defenders of Wildlife 1130 17th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036-4604 202.682.9400 www.defenders.org

Cover photos: polar bear and cub ©Martha Holmes/naturepl.com; coral reef with bleaching ©seapics.com; pika ©Company of Adventurers

Cert no. XXX-XXX-000 s n k Ja Table of Contents c

1. Introduction ...... 4 Caribou © Ni 2. Scope of the Challenge ...... 5 3. Serious Complications ...... 8 4. Mitigation ...... 13 5. Managing Under Uncertainty ...... 17 6. Adaptation ...... 19 7. Policy Response Challenges ...... 27 8. Vital Framework ...... 31 9. Recommendations and Conclusion ...... 33

Appendices A. Symposium Agenda ...... 37 B. Symposium Panelist Biographies ...... 38

www.defenders.org  1. Introduction

uman-induced global warming in greenhouse gases are dominated by To identify these steps, Defenders of is emerging as the greatest threat activities.” Global warming Wildlife hosted Innovations in Wildlife Hfacing the planet today. Wildlife is is affecting every part of the globe Conservation: Reducing the Impact of especially vulnerable. Negative impacts and will continue to do so well into Global Warming on America’s Wildlife, a of climate change are already evident, this century and possibly beyond. To national symposium (Appendix A). The including loss of critical in the address the threat of global warming September 2007 symposium brought polar and high mountain ; effectively, we must act now to reduce together three panels of experts from damage to oceans, coastlines and coral the primary cause of human-induced the scientific, and reefs due to and increased global warming: the greenhouse gases policy communities (Appendix B) to storm activity; and more frequent and emitted when we burn fossil fuels. identify what we can do to enhance intense periods of . However, even with immediate the ability of wildlife to survive this Although the science of climate action, it will still be too late to prevent century. change investigation began in the the of some , and Scientists presented the latest 1950s, the most recent work of the others will edge closer to extinction scientific findings and outlined the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate as the Earth continues to warm. challenges related to the impacts of Change (IPCC), the United Nations Until the greenhouse gases already global warming. Wildlife managers advisory body composed of scientists accumulated in the atmosphere break identified actions that can assist and climate change experts from down and the climate system achieves wildlife and ecosystems to better around the world, provided the a new equilibrium, global warming adapt to climate change. Policy scientific framework to systematically will continue to alter climate patterns analysts considered the existing review and evaluate the latest studies on policy framework and discussed what global warming. around the globe and threaten the might be necessary to implement Based on decades of investigation natural world for decades, if not adaptation strategies and to address involving direct Earth observations centuries. the impacts of global warming. This and measurements, climate modeling Fortunately, we can take many report is a synthesis of the symposium, and impact documentation, the now actions to help wildlife survive until we summarizing the panel presentations, broad scientific consensus is that make progress in reducing greenhouse discussions and key recommendations climate change due to global warming gas emissions. The timescale and that emerged. is occurring. Moreover, according order of magnitude for the loss of our

to Susan Solomon, senior U.S. biological diversity depend on if—and atz government scientist and co-author of when—we take these actions. By taking

the most recent IPCC report, “there careful steps now, we can avoid the © Marty K can be no question that the increases most dramatic losses. “We hope that the results of this symposium will help all of us begin to understand the kind of new and more dynamic conservation strategies that are necessary if we are to help as many species as possible survive the climate changes that lie ahead.” —Rodger Schlickeisen, President and CEO, Defenders of Wildlife

 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 2. Scope of the Challenge

he challenges associated with surface runoff from melting snow to their prey. For example, polar climate change due to global and has caused sea levels to rise bears rely on the ice platform to hunt Twarming are negatively affecting globally, although at different rates ringed and bearded seals (Phocidae). both the physical and biological geographically. The greatest rise is Seals frequent the thin edges and elements of nature. The impacts of on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of openings in the ice—breathing sea-level rise associated with climate North America. Rising sea levels and holes—where polar bears lie in wait. change alone present not only an increasing storm and wave intensity Now, however, due to the rise in ecological challenge, but also a are claiming coastal and salt marsh surface and sea temperatures, less ice social, economic and cultural threat . Salt marsh habitats along is forming, making it more difficult exceeding anything mankind has ever shorelines in the temperate zone are for bears to hunt and requiring them faced. These physical changes and increasingly inundated. As a result, other observed impacts are discussed the ability of many areas to function to expend more to swim in this section. and sustain critical services between widely separated ice packs in is compromised. search of prey. It is also increasingly “There is nothing more Other changes in the physical difficult for female polar bears to world not directly attributed to acquire and to successfully sensitive to the impacts of global warming, but correlated with reproduce and rear their young. temperature increases and decreased Loss of sea ice also affects prey climate change than the precipitation, are the increased species. For seals, sea ice interacts natural world.” incidence and intensity of storms with oceanography to enhance and wildfires. In the western United prey production in cold marine —Tom Lovejoy, The Heinz Center States, for example, the incidence and environments. As sea ice declines, intensity of wildfires are increasing so do the numbers within following longer, hotter and drier populations that sustain these seal summers and earlier snowmelt. The Physical Changes populations. Seals either move farther frequency and intensity of hurricanes The Earth’s climate system is out to sea or decline in numbers. are also showing strong correlation extremely responsive to changes These impacts of global warming are in temperature. As a result, global to increased and sea surface causing a cascading collapse of this warming is affecting climate patterns temperatures. Arctic system. and has already changed the physical world. For example, as a result of Arctic and Boreal Impacts “I wanted to bring Alaska rising temperatures, lakes are freezing Alaska clearly represents “ground later, spring ice is breaking up earlier, zero” for global warming in North prominently to the global are retreating and the Arctic America, according to Glenn ice cap is melting. Juday of the University of Alaska warming discussions to The polar region has seen the and Deborah Williams of Alaska greatest rise in temperature and is Conservation Solutions. Loss of sea help convince America. We already suffering the most extreme ice is particularly evident, threatening see it first. We see it most climate impacts. In recent years, the the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) Arctic has experienced a dramatic and other ice-dependent species. intensely. The crisis is now.” decline of sea ice, especially during Ice-dependent species lose both the —Deborah Williams summer. The increased flow of quality and quantity of physical sea- Alaska Conservation Solutions fresh into the oceans via ice habitat. They can also lose access www.defenders.org  Terrestrial ecosystems in the Pix

Arctic are also showing impacts from ell/ AG

global warming. Alaska is a world ary B centerpiece for boreal species and © G genetic diversity. Climate changes evident in the state due to global warming are unprecedented in recent history. “The biggest change in the boreal region of the last several thousand years is underway now,” said Glenn Juday. Tree growth on boreal sites is decreasing and, as temperatures continue to warm, is nearing absolute lethal limits. Fire and Lemon damselfish swim amid bleached coral—the skeleton that remains after insect outbreaks have reached record- the algae that live within coral tissues and give it color move out in response to high levels with massive tree die-offs sustained higher ocean temperatures. across thousands of acres. Because of ecosystem. There is no known Warm tropical ocean regions of warming, tundra is now flush with the world are not immune to climate more combustible vegetation and compensation mechanism to alter change impacts. If Alaska and the tundra habitats are, in fact, burning. completely this trajectory of loss and Arctic are “ground zero” in terrestrial By all indications, these changes change. ecosystems, then coral reefs are the to the boreal forest will not only “frontlines” of the global warming continue but also intensify. As Marine and Coastal Impacts battle in the marine environment. warming continues, biomes in much In his global survey of climate impacts This is evident most profoundly in of boreal Alaska and northwest on marine and coastal ecosystems, what are widely known as coral reef Canada are highly likely to shift Charles “Pete” Peterson of the “bleaching events.” Bleaching occurs within a decade. The ranges of boreal University of North Carolina noted when the algae, which coexist within species and are likely to that global warming will negatively the coral and help to build its skeletal be either significantly reduced in impact everything from the smallest structure, move out of the coral abundance or eliminated altogether. plankton species that sustain the as ocean temperatures rise above a Boreal are one system with Arctic food web to the delicate, threshold. The white coral skeleton potential to “flip”—to change symbiotic algae that nourish tropical remains, giving the reefs a bleached completely in character and function. corals. It will also cause fundamental appearance due to the loss of the The esternw North American changes within the broader marine bright-hued algae that once colored boreal region, for example, could environment. it. If ocean temperatures remain high change from a spruce/moose/beaver Plankton species have an upper for too long, the algal colony does ecosystem to a grassland/bison/ temperature tolerance limit. As sea not return and the coral dies. Coral “[Boreal] species will surface temperatures increase, the death can precipitate the collapse of limits of their southern ranges in the the commensal marine community probably persist somewhere. Northern Hemisphere are moving composed of myriad fish and marine progressively northward year after invertebrates. Except it will be an unstable year. These changes in distribution Bleaching events have now transition as species’ are also evident in the fish and become an annual occurrence in marine mammal species that feed many parts of the world. Current migrations from current to on phytoplankton and zooplankton. estimates in the Indo-Pacific ocean Increased ocean temperatures region indicate a loss of more than new locations will be slow are further threatening marine half the coral cover in the last 30 to and risky if unaided.” communities as novel conditions 40 years. enhance the incidence and spread of A most disturbing result of —Glenn Juday, University of Alaska disease. recent studies is the realization that

 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife increases in atmospheric carbon first known location to record the numbers and demographics of species dioxide (CO2) levels change the extinction of a species, the golden that have evolved together over time. ocean chemistry and threaten the toad (Bufo periglenes), as a possible These biotic communities are now entire marine food chain. As part of result of climate change brought vulnerable to falling out of synchrony the Earth’s natural carbon balance, about by global warming. Another as species may respond differently to oceans absorb atmospheric CO2. example is the decline of the quetzal changed environmental cues. The excess CO2 in the atmosphere (Pharomachrus mocinno), the ornate For example, plants that time is now being absorbed in the ocean, bird found only in the mountain flowering, pollination and seed increasing pH levels, a process now highlands of Central America. Until production events to climatic factors referred to as “ocean acidification.” recently, this area was only hospitable may now respond more quickly than These more acidic conditions reduce to quetzals. Now, with temperatures the bird populations that rely on these the availability of calcium carbonate, warming, toucans (Ramphastidae) resources to rear their offspring. a critical compound many organisms are expanding their range upward to Animals may respond more to day at the base of the food chain need elevations where they threaten to out- length or light intensity cues that to build their cell coverings or outer compete the quetzal. Fire ants, insects are not being influenced by global skeletal structure. As a result of previously not seen in these cooler warming. Animal migrations and ocean acidification, entire marine mountain regions, have also moved breeding may thus fall out of synch invertebrate communities could higher, challenging the reproductive literally dissolve. success of the quetzal with swarms with the plant resources required to that prey on nestlings. feed and rear offspring. “The public, and even a Terry Root from Stanford Cases of wildlife populations in lot of scientists, talk about University reviewed impacts in decline due to global warming are temperate regions. Numerous studies not isolated; they are occurring in global change as a future have documented various changes areas around the world. Although such as altered flowering phenology the impacts are varied, changes in the threat. I’m here to tell in plants and changes in the timing of timing of events or behavioral changes breeding, nesting and migration for in response to climate changes are you…it is happening today.” many animals. Such changes can have well-documented, and the data are —Charles ‘Pete’ Peterson profound impacts on the population statistically robust. University of North Carolina e c ervi e S TropicAL and Temperate f d Wildli Impacts n Tom Lovejoy of The Heinz Center considered the response of terrestrial U . S Fish a species to climate changes in both temperate and tropical ecosystems. It is not surprising that tropical mountain glaciers are melting, but what has surprised scientists is that climate change impacts are observed even in tropical forests. A critical climatic factor in the tropics is not so much rising temperature, but rather loss of moisture. The Monteverde cloud forest in Costa Rica is perhaps the most well-documented site to Once abundant in Costa Rica’s Monteverde cloud forest, the golden toad is now report correlated negative climate extinct, and global warming’s impact on the formation of clouds and mist crucial to impacts. It is also perhaps the the of the area is believed to be the major factor.

www.defenders.org  3. Serious Complications

ny efforts to refine and use our Threshold Effect “global conveyor belt,” the large-scale predictions to help mitigate The fact that not all change related movements of ocean water in response Aimpacts or to assist species to global warming will be gradual to temperature and density (Figure in adapting to climate changes or linear is especially worrisome. 1). Cold and/or more saline water is face serious complications due to There will be threshold changes and dense and sinks below warmer and physical and biological aspects of the abrupt climate shifts. Such changes less salty that originate from environment and interactions among have already been recorded in the freshwater runoff or melting sea ice. organisms. Several of these challenges climate system itself. One example This cold water continues to sink are described in this section. is the ocean currents of the so-called farther in the depths of the ocean

Figure 1: Great ocean conveyor belt

The global circulation system in the world’s oceans consists of major north-south circulation routes in each ocean basin joining in the Antarctic circumpolar circulation. Warm surface currents and cold deep currents are connected in the few areas of deepwater formation in the high latitudes of the Atlantic and around Antarctica (blue), where the major ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer occurs (transparent white circles). This current system contributes substantially to the transport and redistribution of heat. Global warming could disrupt it, which would have a strong impact on regional-to-hemispheric climate. (Source: IPCC)

 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife until it reaches equilibrium and the Arctic have tipped the balance to basin and the permafrost of the Arctic moves horizontally, producing ocean allow the beetle to produce one more tundra. Water availability in much of movement. Warmer water does not generation per season. The result is a South America strongly depends on sink as readily. Increased sea surface population explosion of this tree pest, the Amazon basin. The area functions temperature caused by resulting in numbers beyond what the as a giant machine concentrating runoff further reduces salinity, thus forest system can sustain. the intense local humidity created retarding this ocean movement and Warmer temperatures allow beetle by the moisture of heavy tropical global circulation. numbers to exceed a threshold level rainfall, constant cloud cover and With their ability to capture that had previously kept tree losses transpiration or water loss through and transfer heat, the world’s oceans within sustainable limits. Without the leaves of dense tropical forest greatly influence our climate today. cool temperatures and wet summers vegetation. A threshold may be Deep circulation patterns in the ocean to reduce beetle populations, these exceeded if deforestation in the area due to variation in water density insects will continue to multiply is excessive and this rain machine influence climate because oceans and swarm across the boreal forests ceases to function. On the Arctic also transport heat. Over geological of Alaska and the Yukon Territory, tundra, another region approaching time, ocean movements have shut producing a covered with a dangerous threshold change, down when certain temperature dead or dying trees. The beetles previously “permanently” frozen thresholds were reached. Lack of literally eat themselves out of house Arctic substrate is starting to thaw, ocean circulation is not only an and home and respond by moving yet releasing large quantities of methane, example of a threshold effect, it is also farther across the landscape. The scale a more potent greenhouse gas than an illustration of an additional risk of this infestation is exceeding the CO2, and further accelerating global of climate change, namely negative limits of human intervention. warming. This release of additional feedbacks within the climate system. Other terrestrial systems with greenhouse gases is another example A breakdown in ocean circulation climate-vulnerable thresholds include of a negative feedback loop created will accelerate warming impacts due the tropical forests of the Amazon when a threshold is exceeded. to the heat-trapping and transporting properties of the ocean. g.org n i

The ability of marine organisms m to sustain in our oceans is another marine system with a climate- lobalWar wOfG ie

vulnerable threshold. Increasing pH V levels linked to excessive CO2 in the h/World atmosphere threaten the productivity c of our oceans. raas ary B

Threshold changes are also © G becoming evident in the biological elements of terrestrial ecosystems. These changes can be among the most difficult to fully understand, model and predict. Researcher Glenn Juday cited the example of the devastating losses caused by pine bark beetles in the forests of the Northwest, southern Alaska and British Columbia. This native beetle, which resided in forest ecosystems at manageable levels until recently, bores through bark to feed and breed in the phloem, the thin layer of plant tissue beneath White spruce forest before and after infestation with pine bark beetles. These the bark, thereby killing the trees. beetles are surviving in greater numbers thanks to warming trends and have claimed Longer, warmer and dryer seasons in nearly 4 million acres of mature white spruce forest on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula.

www.defenders.org  e Environmental Obstacle c ervi e S Course f

One factor that can be better d Wildli n modeled and predicted is the shift

in species’ ranges due to climatic U . S Fish a change. Unfortunately, human-altered land uses such as agriculture, cities, suburbs, roads and other development now dominate the American landscape. As Lovejoy noted, “When species attempt to track their required climate conditions…they will be facing an obstacle course.” Most species within protected areas are isolated with limited connectivity between natural sites. This is a serious constraint to their ability to shift their ranges outside of currently protected areas in response to climate change. Many wild species that exist outside of these protected areas There is no escaping the that surrounds south Philadelphia’s John may be forced into them as their Heinz National Wildlife (outlined in yellow), the largest remaining freshwater habitat is lost with further human tidal wetland in Pennsylvania. expansion and land conversion across the landscape. Protected areas and climate changes from global warming. ability to adapt to environmental other conservation will become Such “bottleneck” events, so-called variability. refugia for species on the move or because they constrict population size Another serious complication not will serve as potential sources of or genetic characteristics, will become yet fully appreciated by the general individuals to colonize new sites increasingly prevalent. Populations public is the relevant timescale under changing climatic conditions. will become more isolated due to involved in species’ ability to adapt The reduction of natural habitat, global warming as critical habitat and and respond to change. Global increased isolation of populations connectivity between areas shrink and warming contrarians may point and potential disruption of resident the extent of natural areas declines to the Earth’s history to argue that populations by migrating individuals across the landscape. A great challenge species are able to evolve and adapt to adding to the density may threaten for wildlife and managers changes in climate. However, current population viability in protected will be to help species “navigate” rates of change far exceed earlier areas. Effects on species’ population such bottlenecks. Maintaining evolutionary timescales, therefore and genetics will have the connectivity between natural areas negating this simplistic argument for most profound long-term impacts. and establishing travel corridors are downplaying the significance of global If a significant proportion of also major components of meeting warming and the need for to the breeding population is lost or this challenge. In rare cases, moving reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In unable to reproduce successfully, the animals to new locations may have the past, climate changed as much as ultimate result can be a serious loss to be considered if a population is 1 degree Centigrade (°C) per 1,000 of genetic diversity. Such losses can otherwise unable to move or adapt years. Now, however, species are stem from unsustainable or to the changing conditions. Effects facing changes of 1°C per century harvesting, increased competition, of prolonged periods of isolation and are unlikely to genetically and reduced access to resources or critical or drastic reductions in population physiologically adapt to this rate habitat, or competitive disruption of numbers and genetic diversity tend to of change. Current climate and social organization or reproduction. increase the incidence of inbreeding, environmental changes are too rapid All of these factors may come into thereby reducing a species’ resilience for species to adapt solely through play as species move in response to as measured by the population’s evolutionary processes such as the

10 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife “With only genetic the polar bear due to loss of summer “We are having surprises. sea ice is perhaps the best-known mutations and selections to example. Another is the plight of And that is basically what the pika (Ochotona princes), a small adapt, species are going to mammal also called “rock rabbit.” I’m concerned about.... face challenges that they Pikas live on talus slopes—rugged, with global warming we steep, rocky areas between timberline simply cannot manage on and subalpine vegetation zones. The are pushing communities in talus slopes provide critical burrowing their own.” sites and the plants that pikas collect ways that we are not sure —Barry Noon, Colorado State University and store in “haystacks” to meet how they are going to react.” their nutritional needs through the accumulation of genetic change in winter. Human activities and climate —Terry Root, Stanford University a population. We have entered a change have pushed the pika to higher Root expressed particular new chapter in the Earth’s history, elevations, beyond areas that offer concern that global warming is one often referred to as the sixth the ideal type of rock formations and tearing apart plant and animal extinction event. Unlike previous plant food. Consequently, the pika communities as we know them. It is events, this one features human beings is one of the mountaintop species likely that ecosystems and biological as the dominant force in species most vulnerable to climate change communities will literally disassemble, evolution or extinction. in the continental United States. As and species will reassemble into novel pika populations become increasingly combinations not previously seen. Nowhere to Go isolated and their critical habitat is lost Impacts on key biotic interactions In response to changing temperature, over time, groups or populations may such as competition, predator-prey precipitation or moisture regimes, remain, but the loss of genetic diversity interactions and obligate pollinators cold-adapted species of North due to prolonged periods of isolation are difficult to foresee. Range shifts, America will migrate poleward in may leave them functionally extinct. timing of phenological events and latitude or upward in elevation to Another impact of climate change synergistic effects are observed when stay within their zone of physiological that can leave species with nowhere climate-induced changes decouple tolerance. As species continue to to move is rising sea levels. One such these important biotic interactions. move in response to global warming, species is the key deer (Odocoileus are already being eventually they may run out of virginianus clavium ), an animal that reported. Synergistic relationships, habitat altogether. Some species will exists only on low-lying islands in the simply have nowhere else to go. This such as the bay checkerspot butterfly Florida Keys. As the island land mass Euphydryas editha bayensis scenario is already unfolding in Arctic ( ) and the is submerged by rising seas, the key obligate plant species associated with and high-elevation species and more deer population will have to swim cases are anticipated. The decline of it, are harder to study and model, to find new habitat in the nearby making it difficult to predict precisely m o Everglades or be transported there by l. c

p what will happen to them. humans. ature The bay checkerspot’s life cycle n n t/ e relies on a few different host plants. m Changes in Community

e Cle Females lay eggs on native dwarf p Structure plantain (Plantago erecta). The

© Philli Biological communities in ecosystems hatching larvae feed on this host are made up of assemblages of plant until it dries up in the summer various species. Each species responds heat, and the larvae enter a period independently to climate change and of dormancy. One season is not moves in its own direction and at its enough for the species to complete own pace. Thus it is difficult—if not its development, so the caterpillar The pika is a mountain-dwelling species impossible at this time—to predict larvae must emerge from dormancy being pushed to higher elevations by a how the entire biological community the following winter when the changing climate. or ecosystem will be affected. stimulate plant growth. The larvae

www.defenders.org 11 may require a second host plant of leading in some cases to population the mosquito vectors will move to clover (Castilleja densiflora or C. or species extinction. higher elevations and infect more exserta) before they emerge to feed and native birds. pupate in late winter and emerge as Biotic Interactions Unlike mainland birds, native adults shortly thereafter. The Hawaiian honeycreeper honeycreepers on Hawaii have Urban expansion and land (Fringillidae) also exemplifies how a not co-evolved with avian malaria development across the San Francisco species may be severely impacted by and thus have not developed any Bay area has reduced native plants and climate change because of its intricate resistance to it. As a result, they are fragmented checkerspot populations. biotic interactions. Honeycreepers highly susceptible to this often-fatal disease brought to the islands by Development impacts in combination were once abundant along the entire birds from the mainland that were with plant responses to climate changes altitudinal gradient of the forests on the Hawaiian Islands. More than introduced by humans. Avian malaria threaten the species with extinction. half the species in this bird family is now transmitted to susceptible Elevated California mean temperature are already extinct due to recently native birds by mosquitoes that have and greater variability in rainfall will introduced threats such as predation, bitten introduced birds that are shift growing seasons of the plants on competition and degradation of asymptomatic carriers of the disease. which the caterpillars depend. habitat. The surviving species have As average temperatures increase Root stressed the difficulty in been restricted to high-elevation the “mosquito line” is moving up predicting such synergistic effects forests by the introduction of avian in elevation and transmitting avian and how these interactions may malaria, a disease transmitted by malaria to honeycreepers. Ultimately, vary in response to climate changes. mosquitoes that until recently these birds will have nowhere to However, increasing numbers of occurred only at lower, warmer go, and this biotic interaction may cases show how climate changes can elevations. As temperatures continue drive the last of the wild Hawaiian alter species interactions, which in to rise with global warming, the honeycreepers to extinction. turn may alter community structure, vegetation and the distribution of es. nc tures ie c f Sc n Pi de n m y o ade ia Ac burg/Mi n n de or f n ra m B © Ji avies © Cali . W. D . W. T

Global warming threatens the key deer (left) with rising sea levels that could submerge its habitat in the Florida Keys, and the bay checkerspot butterfly (right) with population fragmentation caused by the disappearance of plants it needs to complete its lifecycle.

12 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 4. Mitigation

he examples of impacts due to time depends on the rate of mixing Predictions and Lag-time global warming are sobering, in the ocean, climate feedbacks Effects Tespecially considering how and the concentration, lifespan and As Lara Hansen of World Wildlife large the problem of greenhouse gas warming potential of the various Fund reminded the symposium emissions really is. As atmospheric gases and aerosols already in the audience, CO2, the major greenhouse levels of greenhouse gases are the atmosphere. As the discussion of gas driving global warming, was driving force behind global warming global impact predictions and lag maintained at concentrations and its impact on climate, there will times in this section indicates, the between 180 and 200 ppm (parts be a lag between when we reduce Earth will experience a certain level per million) in the atmosphere emissions and when we see the of additional warming even if we during pre-industrial times. With effects in the climate system and act immediately to stop additional the advent of the combustible in the natural world. The response greenhouse gas emissions. engine and the ensuing suite of

Figure 2: CO2 concentration, temperature and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced

After CO2 emissions are reduced and atmospheric concentrations stabilize, surface air temperature continues to rise slowly for a century or more. Thermal expansion of the ocean continues long after CO2 emissions have been reduced, and melting of ice sheets continues to contribute to sea-level rise for many centuries. This figure is a generic illustration for stabilization at any level between 450 and 1,000 ppm, and therefore has no units on the response axis. Responses to stabilization trajectories in this range

show broadly similar time courses, but the impacts become progressively larger at higher concentrations of CO2. (Source: IPCC) www.defenders.org 13 human activities related to power tures c

generation, transportation and land- n Pi de use changes, CO concentrations are n

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now at approximately 385 ppm. An kli c

additional amount of climate change p Ni

is already a given because of the lag © Fli time between the accumulation of greenhouse gases (Figure 2) and the consequent buildup of heat. The implication of this lag-time effect in the climate system translates into serious impacts if pre-industrial

levels of CO2 are doubled (550 ppm). Heating will be greater at the poles, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in changes in water distribution, quantities and locale. According to Martin Perry, A polar bear climbs onto the sea ice, which is critical to its survival and rapidly the editor of the second working- group report of the IPCC, the Earth disappearing.

is heading toward a tripling of CO2 sheets and increased rise in sea level trajectory of this century. Pursuing concentrations unless dramatic and an estimated loss of 40 percent of mitigation efforts—reducing reductions are made very quickly. By the Earth’s known animal species. greenhouse gas emissions associated the end of the century, emissions are As these extinction estimates with human activities—is the most expected to be somewhere between include only loss of known species, the essential component of any plan for 550 ppm and 950 ppm. true magnitude of loss of our planet’s addressing global warming. It also Terry Root presented a disturbing biological diversity will be far greater offers three additional benefits. review of the latest global impact than any estimate that can be made. First, tackling greenhouse gas predictions, based on the most recent But there is reason for optimism. reduction promotes an open national work of the IPCC. Human-induced As Root noted, if action is taken dialogue aimed at the question: global warming raised the world’s immediately to reduce our emissions, At what level will we stabilize average surface temperature by thereby limiting future average rise in greenhouse gas concentration? 0.7°C during the reference period of global temperature to 2 to 3°C, it may For Americans this represents an 1980 to 1999. The result has been a be possible to avoid the most extreme opportunity to debate national decrease of , an increased extinction predictions. energy and transportation priorities incidence of drought, and and to question the country’s global storm damage and heightened risk Reducing Greenhouse Gas role in trade that serves to promote of fire and future species extinctions. Emissions tropical deforestation and other An increase of the global average To be truly effective in addressing land-use changes such as destruction temperature beyond 1.5°C to 2.5°C the impacts of global warming, of wetland habitats. The trade issue will increase the risk of extinction greenhouse gas emissions must has received inadequate attention to 20 to 30 percent. Corals will be decreased and carbon capture in the international climate change experience more frequent bleaching increased worldwide. Total emissions negotiations, despite its significant events and widespread mortality. This must then be reduced to a level impacts on the global climate will also coincide with an increased that will stabilize the atmospheric system. Tropical deforestation alone incidence of flooding and drought. concentration (Figure 3). If significant is estimated to account for 20 to 25 If we allow the global temperature reduction and stabilization of percent of the total annual greenhouse to rise 3°C, 30 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas concentrations is not gas emissions. wetlands will be lost and human food achieved, no amount of conservation Second, addressing greenhouse production will decline. A rise of or wildlife management effort is gas emissions provides the American 4°C or more will bring melting of ice likely to reverse the species extinction people an opportunity to examine

14 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife the issue of global warming as an greenhouse gases. The nation must supported by scientific and economic ethical decision. Such a national examine the environmental, economic studies but ultimately will be a moral debate also helps Americans examine and social impacts of climate change or ethical decision. both national priories and the choices to future generations and to the The challenge for conservationists that influence individual behaviors preservation of the nation’s wildlife is to ensure that a broader and a Topic 3 Climate change and its impacts in the near and long term under different scenarios that contribute to the emissions of and natural areas. This debate can be more complete valuation of wildlife

Figure 3: ScenariosScenarios for greenhousefor GHG emissions gas (GHG) from emissions 2000 tofrom 2100 2000 in to the 2100 in the 3.1 Emissions scenarios absence of additionalabsence climateof additional policies climate policies

9 There is high agreement and much evidence that with cur- post-SRES (max) rent climate change mitigation policies and related sustain- able development practices, global GHG emissions will con- tinue to grow over the next few decades. Baseline emis-

sions scenarios published since the IPCC Special Report -eq / yr) on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) are comparable in 2 range to those presented in SRES (see Box on SRES sce- narios and Figure 3.1).10 {WGIII 1.3, 3.2, SPM} The SRES scenarios project an increase of baseline global GHG emissions by a range of 9.7 to 36.7 GtCO2-eq (25 to 90%) between 2000 and 2030. In these scenarios, fossil fuels are projected to maintain their dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Hence CO2 emissions from energy use between 2000 and 2030 are projected to grow 40 to 110% over that period. {WGIII

1.3, SPM} Global GHG emissions (Gt CO Studies published since SRES (i.e. post-SRES scenarios) have post-SRES (min) used lower values for some drivers for emissions, notably popula- tion projections. However, for those studies incorporating these new population projections, changes in other drivers, such as economic growth, result in little change in overall emission levels. EconomicThis graph shows six marker greenhouse gases scenarios (colored lines) described in the 2000 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Figure 3.1. Global GHG emissions (in GtCO2-eq per year) in the absence of growth projections for Africa, Latin America and the Middle EastScenarios (SRESadditional). The scenarios climate are basedpolicies: on different six illustrative projections of SRES future population marker and scenarios economic growth(coloured and energy sources. to 2030 in post-SRES baseline scenarios are lower than in SRES,The A1 scenarioslines) describe and very 80 thrapid percentile economic growth,range a ofglobal recent population scenarios that peaks published mid-century sinceand declines SRES thereafter, and but this has only minor effects on global economic growth and over-the rapid introduction(post-SRES) of new and (gray more shadedefficient technologies.area). Dashed The three lines A1 scenarios show arethe distinguished full range by of their post- technological emphasis—fossil intensive (A1FI - bright blue line), non-fossil energy sources (A1T - purple line) or a balance of all sources (A1B - all emissions. {WGIII 3.2, TS.3, SPM} SRES scenarios. The emissions include CO2, CH4, N2O and F-gases. {WGIII green line). T1.3,he A2 3.2,scenario Figure (red line) SPM.4} is characterized by economic development that is primarily regionally oriented and per capita Aerosols have a net cooling effect and the representationeconomic of growth and technological change that are more fragmented and slower than other scenarios. The B1 scenario (dark blue aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, including sulphur diox-line) considers the same global population situation as A1, but with rapid change in economic structures and an emphasis on global ide, black carbon and organic carbon, has improved in the post-solutions to economic,Purchasing social and Power environmental Parity, sustainability PPP) doeswithout notadditional appreciably climate initiatives. affect The Bthe2 scenario pro- (orange line) describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability but with global SRES scenarios. Generally, these emissions are projected to be lower jected emissions, when used consistently.11 The differences, if any, than reported in SRES. {WGIII 3.2, TS.3, SPM} population continuously increasing at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development and less rapid and more diverse technologicalare small change compared than in the B1 andto Athe1 scenarios. uncertainties The gray shaded caused area shows by theassumptions 80th percentile rangeon of recent Available studies indicate that the choice of exchange ratescenarios for publishedother since parameters SRES and the in full therange scenarios, of post-SRES scenariose.g. technological (gray dashed lines). change. (Source: IPCC) {WGIII Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Market Exchange Rate, MER or 3.2, TS.3, SPM} www.defenders.org 15

SRES scenarios SRES refers to the scenarios described in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000). The SRES scenarios are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions. The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate policies above current ones. The emissions projections are widely used in the assessments of future climate change, and their underlying assumptions with respect to socio-economic, demographic and technological change serve as inputs to many recent climate change vulnerability and impact assessments. {WGI 10.1; WGII 2.4; WGIII TS.1, SPM} The A1 storyline assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and rapid introduc- tion of new and more efficient technologies. A1 is divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T) and a balance across all sources (A1B). B1 describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy. B2 describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasising local solutions to economic, social, and environ- mental sustainability. A2 describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change. No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES scenarios. {WGIII TS.1, SPM}

9 Agreement/evidence statements in italics represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. See Box ‘Treatment of uncertainty’ in the Intro- duction for an explanation of these terms. 10 Baseline scenarios do not include additional climate policies above current ones; more recent studies differ with respect to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol inclusion. Emission pathways of mitigation scenarios are discussed in Topic 5. 11 Since the TAR, there has been a debate on the use of different exchange rates in emissions scenarios. Two metrics are used to compare GDP between countries. Use of MER is preferable for analyses involving internationally traded products. Use of PPP is preferable for analyses involving comparisons of income between countries at very different stages of development. Most of the monetary units in this report are expressed in MER. This reflects the large majority of emissions mitigation literature that is calibrated in MER. When monetary units are expressed in PPP, this is denoted by GDPPPP. {WGIII SPM}

44 and ecosystem services that benefit but also because they release large Stopping deforestation while also society are recognized and included quantities of greenhouse gases when promoting and other in this debate. Wild species are the they are cleared, burned or drained. improved and “ambassadors” for intact ecosystems Preventing deforestation and wetlands land-use practices will contribute to and the benefits these natural areas loss will be an important element in offsetting the problem of increasing provide to our nation and to our any national arsenal of mitigation annual greenhouse gas emissions. economy. options implemented. Ignoring any one element of Third, reducing emissions offers In earlier U.N. climate change our mitigation response “is hugely “win-win” solutions, a feature negotiations, the notion of crediting short-sighted,” according to Lovejoy, underscored by symposium speaker activities to reduce deforestation “because the reality is we are at a Deborah Williams. Whether these as part of a national response to point already, which is a crisis for solutions are the pursuit of renewable limit greenhouse gas emissions was climate change and for life on Earth. energy or reducing emissions through contentious among governments Remember that we have an additional carbon capture or energy efficiency, party to international climate amount of climate change already they have the potential to improve the regulations. Several nongovernmental built in that is going to come in and economy, bring jobs to the nation and environmental organizations even just shape the biological systems of improve health and environmental blocked them, believing that the planet like we have never seen security. including forest and land-use or even are capable of imagining. So Tom Lovejoy stressed the need issues would take the pressure off we really need to be doing absolutely to reduce deforestation and loss of industrialized countries to address the everything we can. Whether it is wetlands. These areas merit protection energy side of the issue. Obviously, energy efficiency or renewables or not only for the and we need to facilitate and extend avoided deforestation, we need to be ecosystem services they provide, this dialogue to develop consensus. doing that all at once.” orbis c / n a m nn y leh © da

Deforestation, like this in Panama, accounts for 25 to 30 percent of the greenhouse gases released each year.

16 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 5. Managing Under Uncertainty

iven the volume of data, Applying a Safe Minimum g.org n i improved modeling efforts Standard m and thousands of experts G Bryan Norton of Georgia Tech lobalWar contributing to the IPCC’s recent

laid out an ethical argument/moral wOfG ie assessment of climate change, imperative, for managing within V scientists have a high degree of h/World

uncertainty. “Some of the species that c certainty that global warming is real, do not look very useful or important raas extensive and attributable to human now may be keystone species in future ary B activities. Policymakers, however, are systems. [And because once] a species © G only now beginning to understand is lost it is lost forever, we should be the magnitude of these findings. applying the safe minimum standard Their hesitancy in responding may of conservation as the rule,” said be due in part to the uncertainty Norton. This standard directs “that in predicting what the outcome of in a situation of uncertainty, always future climate changes will be and save the resource provided the social determining what preemptive actions cost is bearable.” Considering climate to take. response in North America, Norton Most computer models treat the contends that “given the wealth of climate system on a global scale, our society, almost any social cost Researchers monitor water flows as part which lacks sufficient detail to guide is bearable to protect biological of a project that has shown that major policymakers and resource managers. diversity… saving the biodiversity rivers are discharging much more fresh Without predictive models it is resource protects options and water into the Arctic Ocean, another difficult to determine how best to opportunities for the future.” impact of climate change. proceed and respond and that level of uncertainty must be weighed against Maintaining Resilience These proven conservation the risk of species extinctions if we Over the decades, the United States approaches will continue to serve fail to respond at all. Despite this has taken a variety of legislative, in addressing the new conservation challenge, conservationists can, and financial and active-management challenges and pressures of a changing must, move forward as described in approaches to conservation. Protected climate, but maintaining biological this and the following sections. areas have been legally designated diversity is the most cost-effective as national parks, reserves, refuges, management tool of all in our “We have an obligation etc. Conservation land trusts, conservation toolkit. Given mankind’s easements, concessions, contracts rudimentary understanding of nature, based on the idea of and market-based incentives to it may also be our most practical stewardship to protect promote ecosystem services or tool. Therefore, efforts to maintain biological conservation have been or enhance the resilience of natural species from the trends we used as financial tools. Wildlife and systems represent a prudent or resource managers have translocated safe standard that we can promote have set in motion and in populations or reintroduced animals immediately. trends that continue.” propagated through captive-breeding Measures to promote resilience programs created to save critically include designation, protection —Bryan Norton, Georgia Tech imperiled species. and management of adequate and

www.defenders.org 17 “The existing protected area as increased global warming shifts panelists and moderators represented ecological zones. Some environments a great proportion of the “national system represents the safe will be altered or reduced to such an capital” in terms of a fairly small extent that enough critical habitat to number of people working on the havens from which future maintain the populations or species conservation response to the impacts biogeographic patterns will no longer be available. Other of climate change on wildlife. This habitats will be eliminated entirely. newly evolving area of conservation can emerge. And so, in the Species that need to respond to survive biology requires us to redefine what end, the message is…Past the temperature, moisture or pH conservation is and what it must changes may have to move outside become to address climate change. To conservation achievements current protected areas. Ice-dependent meet this challenge—the greatest of species in the Artic or high-alpine this generation—we must change the species in mountainous areas present are really important. conservation paradigm. a type of climate challenge in which Dan Ashe of the U.S. Fish and But we need even MORE no amount of management effort to Wildlife Service elaborated on the maintain resilience will ensure the conservation than we ever conservation challenge ahead as the species’ survival. Mankind’s reach in impacts of climate change call into understood before.” terms of our impact on nature has question the fundamental concepts exceeded our grasp in terms of our —Tom Lovejoy, The Heinz Center ability to protect. and principles that have guided conservation efforts until recently. appropriate space and the creation or Adopting a New Scientists and managers must throw maintenance of travel corridors in a Conservation Paradigm out some preconceived notions and conservation network. Management Tremendous changes in the physical consider what climate change means for of these sites involves minimizing the and biological world are already ecology. Concepts and definitions such negative impacts of other stressors evident with only a 0.7°C increase as succession, integrity and resilience (such as injurious non-native invasive in average global temperature must also be entirely re-evaluated. species and diseases, unsustainable over the past century. The global For example, the concept of harvests, pollution and decline in water community is woefully unprepared restoration will have to be studied as it quality or availability) and improving for the changes envisioned in merely typically refers to some historic states habitat quality and rehabilitation the minimum 2°C to 3°C predicted and reference periods. Restoration is an or restoration of degraded lands. increase expected over the next several effort to return to a state or condition, Resilience is also enhanced through decades. Even if we were able to but how will that be defined now that management and careful planning stop all human-induced greenhouse habitats or systems have changed and outside conservation areas to reduce gas emissions immediately, we can are no longer part of the natural area fragmentation or loss of habitat to expect to see a rise of 2°C due to the under changing climate conditions? land conversion or infrastructure such lag effect in the climate system. The Similarly, categories such as native and as roads. Active manipulation within scope of the challenge in terms of invasive or subspecies and populations and between sites may be required the complexity and lag times of this will also need to be revisited. It is a in extreme cases where populations system and how species respond and challenging time. have experienced a bottleneck event interact has massive implications for (the reduction of numbers or genetic how conservationists respond to the “Anything, any concept diversity in a population). In such impacts of global warming. A new cases, resilience may be improved conservation paradigm recognizing founded on assumptions through the introduction or exchange this is necessary. of parent stock to genetically depleted Several symposium speakers of stability and global-level populations. stressed the need to rethink what ecology, must now be Under the predicted impacts of conservation is and how to do it. climate change, the boundaries that Lara Hansen examined this in the questioned.” currently delineate protected areas may greatest detail. She noted that the no longer afford species protection assembled group of symposium —Dan Ashe, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

18 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 6. Adaptation e he challenge of formulating a c ervi

new conservation paradigm to n S address global warming is tightly servatio T n tied to the question: What is the es Co conservation vision? To answer, society c will have to define the American esour conservation landscape. Wildlife and Natural R resource managers will then have to determine where that landscape will be, what it will contain and who is going to make it happen. This section covers the conservation efforts it will take to define and achieve this common vision and the sophisticated computer models linked to landscape-level planning and if scientists and managers are to help wildlife adapt to the impacts of future climate change. Defining the Vision: The Initial Challenges Arriving at a common conservation vision in the context of the global warming crisis will require conservation efforts to move beyond the safe minimum standard and meet the important challenges briefly described below.

Linking human welfare and environmental integrity A riparian buffer on private land exemplifies the kind of project that helps wildlife Barry Noon of Colorado State and unites citizens and managers with a shared conservation vision. University believes the first challenge of defining a common conservation and accept this link. The problem has in fundamentally different temporal vision is reaching a point at which been that the American public, as well and spatial scales. the American public understands as wildlife and resource managers, the link between human welfare and tend to focus on a human experience Defining population viability environmental integrity. According timeframe when global climate To serve as a management tool, to Noon, society is at a very early change really requires ecological and climate models will need to be stage and level of understanding. We evolutionary thinking to allow species linked with population genetic and have a long way to go to reach the to survive and adapt. Thus, the new demographic models. Wildlife and next point at which people embrace conservation vision requires framing resource managers will have to address

www.defenders.org 19 how they wish to define “population viability—the modeling objective— would rather see the Fish and Wildlife viability” for their computer-guided will require input not only from Service holding them and playing as management goal. J. Michael Scott biologists but also from society at large. hard as they can.” of the University of Idaho and U.S. Geological Survey considered this Determining how far to go to Accepting risks component in identifying a common protect a species As species migrate out of their vision and future modeling and Perhaps the starting point in defining historic ranges in response to climate management needs for national a common vision is to figure out what change, conservationists will be wildlife refuges in 2050. “What is it species to protect and how, and to challenged on all fronts—at the that we are trying to protect?” Scott determine the lengths to which we scientific, managerial and policy asked. Is it the minimally viable, will go to save them as climate change levels. To illustrate the difficulties for demographically viable or ecologically and habitats shift. Scott summed it up wildlife managers as they wrestle with viable population? with the refrain from a Kenny Rogers efforts to define a common vision, The difference between them hit song: “You got to know when to H. Ron Pulliam of University of may be an order of magnitude. To hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know Georgia used the example of whether reinforce that point, Scott reported when to walk away…” In response, or not to assist species movement that 59 percent to 73 percent Dan Ashe of the U.S. Fish and or migration. If a species cannot of current refuges can maintain Wildlife Service said, “I think in the move on its own to colonize more genetically viable populations of end the species themselves are going climatically suitable habitat that threatened and to decide when they are done—when develops in the future, should it be found there, half the demographically they are going to blink out—and moved deliberately and purposely viable populations and perhaps as little I, from my own perspective, would even if the relocation takes it outside as one-eighth of evolutionary viable rather not have the Fish and Wildlife its historic range? By definition under populations. Defining population Service making those decisions. I current U.S. law, species introduced tures c i n p de n i m o/ n n Y oshi hi © S

A Bengal tiger drinks from a river. Scientists predict rising sea level will drive these animals from the low-lying islands of India and Bangladesh to the more populous mainland, and are working with communities there to set aside land.

20 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife outside their historic range are to climatic factors, nor do they model How to adequately model the considered “invasive species.” Many complex biotic interactions and potential of wildlife and natural of the same fears, such as unknown future human land-use changes. These ecosystems and accommodate the impacts on local ecosystems and limitations are described in more uncertainty of the impacts of abrupt plant and animal communities, detail below. changes is simply unknown. exist for these “neo natives” as for non-native species introduced by Insufficient scale Limit in number of species humans. Moreover, mankind’s Current climate models are of modeled history of trying to engineer nature great help in examining global Even with the development of and correct environmental problems climate change, but lack sufficient modeling programs on a finer-scale, has had some colossal failures. resolution to be useful to wildlife only a limited number of individual Undoubtedly, the number of species and resource managers at regional species can be modeled based on eligible for consideration for such or local scales. Climate models are a sufficient understanding of that intervention will be limited, perhaps complex computer programs run on species’ physiological tolerance and to only the most endangered or most sophisticated super computers using response to changes in temperature, valuable to society. It is clear that quantitative mathematical equations moisture, pH or chemistry. Thus, future conservation challenges under to simulate the dynamic interactions although it may be possible to model climate change will require action of the atmosphere, oceans, land the distribution of single species— when inaction carries a real risk of masses, ice and snow. Based on these where a particular species might occur extinction. simulations, future climate and in the future—attempts to model the “I think we are to the point where climate impacts can be predicted. total number of endemic vertebrate risk aversion is no longer an option,” Direct Earth observations have been species over time and temperature Pulliam noted. “We have to take used to derive the mathematical change may prove untenable. Only risks that we have not taken in the relationships between variables and to a limited amount of this type of past because the impacts of global provide the relevant data. climate prediction can be anticipated. warming are going to get far worse The level of sophistication of Large charismatic or economically before they get better. We cannot these models has led to a greater important species are most likely to afford to sit back and do nothing. We understanding of the climate system receive this level of analysis. It is just are going to have to take risks.” in recent years. However, the smallest too huge a job to tackle species-by- area or unit considered in the global species. “Are we smart enough to circulation models is too large to be of practical use to resource managers Difficulty of monitoring do it? Are we dumb enough who need to manage at the level at complex community and biotic not to?” which climate interacts with species interactions and habitats. Fortunately, efforts are Modeling the primary impacts of —H. Ron Pulliam, University of Georgia now shifting to downscale climate global warming on a single species projections to generate more fine-scale is the simple part of the picture. climate predictions. As previously noted, there are Predictive Modeling as a Management Tool Inability to account for abrupt “Our biggest challenge is Predictive models must be an integral change part of the conservation toolkit for Current predictive efforts are limited going to be protecting and dealing with climate change impacts. because scientists are still unable to Unfortunately, high-quality coupled model abrupt climate system changes. reintegrating conservation models with sufficient sensitivity, In addition, current principles of areas into the American accuracy and precision at a finer and wildlife spatial scale are not yet a reality. management are based on an landscape.” Existing models are also limited. assumption of stability. In fact, the —J. Michael Scott, University of Idaho and Most do not incorporate species’ entire human enterprise—agriculture, physiological tolerance and response land and resource use and harvesting U.S. Geological Survey levels—is based on this assumption.

www.defenders.org 21 serious complications to consider in in the midwestern United States. equally to national parks, private determining what climate change Another example is the proliferation reserves and other protected lands. will mean and how species and of wind turbines and photovoltaic At the system level: Until recently, communities will respond. With no panels across the southwestern federal authorities’ real analogs in nature of the impacts deserts as society pursues alternative consideration of climate change has of climate change, the secondary energy. The impact that such energy been mostly limited to supporting impacts, species interactions infrastructure will have on sensitive research documenting the impacts or synergistic responses are far ecosystems already stressed in recent of climate change on select species, more difficult to model. Potential years by drought due to global rather than focused on managing dissolution of community structure warming is a concern. public lands at the system level. will be unpredictable throughout From a local biologist’s or manager’s an unstable period of transition and Landscape-level Planning perspective, the system-level focus of under continuing climate changes. Symposium speakers unanimously climate change on public lands will Despite an inability to model concluded that changing climate have to be reconciled with grand and secondary and tertiary impacts, these conditions will require managing far-reaching policy decisions. must still be anticipated in future wildlife across a much larger area— In terms of diversity or population planning and response. Deborah beyond the individual unit-level numbers, some species and refuges Williams pointed out one such and the system-level. Maintaining will be “winners,” and some will be scenario. Mosquitoes that can carry North American wildlife over the “losers.” This raises the question of the West Nile virus are not yet found next century will take broad-scale how to prioritize species conservation. in Alaska. However, she noted that planning, linking natural areas As species distributions shift in as global warming increases, the and refugia of native wildlife and response to changing climate and northern range of the mosquito- the collaboration of multiple habitat, refuges established to vector could move into the state. governmental and nongovernmental protect and sustain them may prove The initial human response is likely landowners and stewards. inadequate. Thus, according to Mike to be spraying with pesticides, a Scott, we need to do three things. response with potentially serious Managing public lands First, we must identify the environmental impacts. The president of Defenders of “winning” and “losing” species and Wildlife, Rodger Schlickeisen, cited a the refuges on which they occur to Challenge of modeling human recent U.S. Government Accounting prioritize response efforts to protect behavior and societal responses Office (GAO) report that found species at highest risk. These will be The example of mosquitoes carrying the United States is “inadequately species that occur at high altitudes, in West Nile virus moving north into prepared; … federal land agencies lack Alaska introduces another aspect and guidance on what to do, and have the polar region, along coastal areas, limitation of climate modeling as a not made addressing global warming at the limits of their geophysical, predictive management tool: how to a priority…[and] official advisors technological or geographical range, model human or societal responses. are reluctant to talk about climate at the boundaries of their range on As Dan Ashe put it, “fear the change.” Dan Ashe confirmed that a national wildlife refuge, as well as but do not ignore the hare,” climate there has been a policy shift, pointing threatened and endangered species change being the turtle (relatively to several recent consultations, that already have narrow distributions slow, deliberate), human society, the reviews and training efforts currently and are otherwise vulnerable. For hare. Human responses to climate underway within the Fish and example, in developing a vision for change will be aggressive, energetic Wildlife Service. the future of our national wildlife and additive with very proximal Mike Scott, who has given serious refuges, Scott and his colleagues effects on wildlife, he warned, and thought to how to manage for climate looked at climate predictions out managers will need to pay close impacts on National Wildlife Refuge to the year 2100 and identified 309 attention to these effects. System lands, stressed the need to refuges that will lose waterfowl species A prime example is the national consider management at two levels: as a result of range contraction and frenzy to support biofuels production the entire system and the individual 229 refuges that will gain species. reflected by the growing amount of unit. He noted that his conclusions, These projected results varied across land placed under corn cultivation which are presented below, apply species and also geographically.

22 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife Second, we must take a global required activities, leaving less time incentives and multi-stakeholder approach to protecting North for addressing longer-term issues consultation. American breeding birds or other like climate change,” a finding not Like other protected areas globally migrating species that are surprising to federal staff. As federal around the world, America’s national threatened not only on their breeding employees Scott and Ashe indicated, wildlife refuges must be reintegrated grounds but also on their wintering the reality of managing public lands into the broader landscape. Efforts grounds and stopover areas. Scott is that, given current funding levels toward achieving this could serve considered birds that breed in North and priorities, resource managers to demonstrate U.S. leadership in America and winter elsewhere. The must focus on these short-term conservation and help promote federal response to global climate requirements, the everyday demands. similar conservation efforts around change on our national wildlife This will not change, at least until the world. refuges cannot be restricted to the adequate resources are made available To focus conservation efforts on United States; it must also consider to do the long-term job as well. a landscape level to a greater extent the relevant global impacts. than before, there is a need for greater Third, we must recognize that a Maintaining connectivity and cooperation among federal agencies, management response will have to corridors state agencies and private landowners, adapt to dramatic shifts as ecosystems Dan Ashe called for a strategic noted David Hayes of the law firm are lost or transformed and take on approach to developing migration Latham & Watkins. He stressed that conditions for which we have no corridors. He noted that the National although science is showing a way prior analog. Referencing results forward, top-level direction among Wildlife Refuge System was built on of climate modeling scenarios on all wildlife and resource managers of a concept of corridors, so the United national wildlife refuges, Scott and state and private lands must be “job States does have experience managing his fellow researchers found that 10 one” in terms of wildlife protection. corridors across the landscape. The percent are likely to undergo these Michael Mantell, an attorney current challenge, in the context kinds of dramatic ecosystem shifts, with the Resources Law Group LLP, of climate change, is going to be including 16 Alaskan refuges that pointed to the state of California dealing with the unpredictable and account for 85 percent of the entire as an example of where this is asynchronous movement of species National Wildlife Refuge System’s starting to happen. California has and the loss or shifts of critical habitat landmass. Coastal refuges are the most increased funding and research to moving to higher, cooler elevations numerous, with 161 units that may be consider the need and placement of or longitudinally toward the poles. threatened by rising sea level. There is corridors. However, he noted the Planning corridors is only one part of also a subset of these refuges that may frustrating disconnects between the require special consideration, such the solution. studies and the follow-up actions, as coastal refuges that face bulkheads Mike Scott offered one additional agency expenditures and priorities or are bounded by cities, towns and reason for creating wildlife corridors. of the nonprofit land trusts. “We highways. Scott also found that some Current protected areas, whether increasingly have the science and inland refuges that are now grasslands they are parks, refuges or other the knowledge to underpin that,” he are likely to experience a shift in major conservation areas, are too small, said. “We do not have yet the other ecosystem type or biome over the he said, and too fragmented to vehicles in place to actually translate next 100 years. These shifts represent maintain the integrity, diversity it into action, although we have made unprecedented challenges that require and health of the populations that progress.” the development of new policies to are found in these areas. Parks facilitate managers’ ability to respond and refuges are isolated “islands” Creating dynamic networks of to these unanticipated changes. This embedded in inhospitable “seas” protected areas is a research challenge scientists and of land development. Therefore, a Society must be fully engaged if managers must meet together. landscape-level approach will require conservation objectives are to be At the individual area level: not only the physical and mechanical achieved in the face of increasing Examining the response at the aspects of creating connectivity and global warming. Given the scope individual refuge or area level, the corridors, but also an expanded and scale of the climate change GAO report also reveals that “resource system of land acquisition, planning challenge, managing wildlife and managers focus first on near-term for and examining subsidies and land protecting adequate and appropriate

www.defenders.org 23 Figure 4: Rolling Easement

A rolling easement allows construction near to shore, but requires the property owner to recognize nature’s advance inland as sea level rises. In the scenario depicted here, the high marsh reaches the footprint of the house 40 years hence. Because the house is on pilings, it can still be occupied. After 60 years, the marsh has advanced enough to require the owner to park along the street and construct a catwalk across the front yard. After 80 years, the marsh has taken over the entire yard. The footprint of the house is now seaward of mean high water and thus on public property. At this point, additional reinvestment in the property is unlikely, and the state might charge rent for continued occupation of the house. Twenty years later, the house has been removed, although older houses on the same street may still be occupied. Eventually, however, the entire area returns to nature. (Source: Maryland Law Review, 57 (1998): 1279-1399)

24 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife space will only be possible through modeling and is formulated from a steps now, and change the way we are strategic conservation partnerships particular location outward. thinking and start implementing it.” among adjacent landowners and Adaptive management embeds other interested parties. An integrated science in an experimental and Management opportunities conservation landscape requires proactive management process. The Hansen illustrated the adaptive the design of dynamic networks of experimental aspect of adaptive management approach using protected areas or “rolling easements” management is a response to the three projects supported by World (Figure 4). A rolling easement is a uncertainty of taking reversible Wildlife Fund. These projects help special type of easement that has been actions, then studying the outcomes species adapt to climate change and applied to coastal shore properties. to reduce uncertainty at the next include protecting coral reefs by Unlike setbacks that prohibit decision point. The multi-scalar restoring coastal mangrove forest development near the shoreline, this modeling that adaptive management across the equator, planning for tiger easement ‘rolls’ landward as the sea calls for involves thinking and conservation on the Indian islands advances. The objective is to ensure planning around what Norton called of the Sundarbans based on climate dry or intertidal lands for public “layered time,” allowing for the modeling, and assessing hawksbill access to the shore. But the idea consideration of broader drivers, such turtle nesting habitat across the of applying this rolling concept in as species interactions, and how they tropics. affect the broader system, and for The first project, working with response to changing or advancing the formulation of solutions that are local communities to restore coastal climate boundaries is only now more complex but more appropriate. mangrove forests to protect coral reefs being considered. The concept is still Finally, the issue of “place” is critical offshore, is an example of building in its infancy and will take much because adaptive management is ecosystem resilience, a climate more research and policy analysis germane to a specific location, it change adaptation approach long to work out how to best implement emphasizes that there is no one-size- championed by Hansen and her it. As Scott noted, it is a promising fits-all solution and that critical efforts colleagues. The adaptive management approach to a daunting problem. must still be made at the local level. component was creating a model Scott, Hansen and Ashe to show other communities how to Adaptive Management reiterated the need for wildlife benefit from similar conservation In his symposium presentation and resource managers to apply efforts and to modify it to suit any considering the challenge of adaptive management in responding unique local considerations and managing under uncertainty, Bryan to the threats of increasing global conditions. Norton introduced two strategies warming. This kind of experimental This project engaged communities for dealing with uncertainty. One management will be necessary because with a vested interest in taking strategy is to “study then act,” which at this stage we simply do not have immediate action by participating characterizes the primary policy of the answers. “If we were to try and in a mangrove restoration and the U.S. government. The alternative, figure out what the uncertainty coral reef protection program. and recommended strategy, is to “act is in various strategies,” Hansen These communities understood and then study,” an approach widely said, “by the time we work out the the benefits a mangrove shelter known as adaptive management. uncertainties, climate change would belt offers in buffering wave surge Three characteristics help to have changed the playing field yet and coastal erosion and the value define adaptive management: It is again, and that guidance would now of supported by the coral experimental, involves multi-scalar be useless. We need to take bold reefs. By restoring the mangrove

“We need some sort of extension agency model that allows for that dialogue and that synthesis to be going on. Currently we are just too few people spread out doing too many different things.” —Lara Hansen, World Wildlife Fund

www.defenders.org 25 m ecosystem, they are protecting the o coral reef ecosystem and enhancing s/ardea. c its resiliency to the impacts of a rise n

in sea surface temperature associated n Parso avi

with climate change. © G The second example, tiger conservation on the low-lying islands of India and Bangladesh, underscores the fact that adaptive management requires conservation planning that anticipates human-wildlife conflicts that will emerge as wildlife and people face the impacts of climate change. Climate modeling data were used to predict the change in sea level and the resulting inundation, loss of tiger habitat and the movement of tigers swimming to more populated areas on the mainland to escape these climate impacts. The adaptive management aspect was to work with governments and engage local communities in areas A hawksbill turtle, a species losing vital nesting beaches to global warming, glides likely to receive displaced tigers and to over a coral reef. develop new spatial arrangements that afford protection to both human and The adaptive management angle refine the appropriate management tiger populations. of this project is recognizing that response to climate change. It conservation planning must now The sea turtle conservation project is essential to identify from this anticipate the “wild card” of climate Hansen cited as a third example replication effort what guidance can change. Areas that have historically considers various hawksbill turtle be generalized and drawn from such served as nesting grounds or other nesting beaches across the tropics. comparisons. So little is known right habitat critical to species survival With sea level and temperature now, and there is so little time. may shift or be entirely lost. Species rising, conservation managers will “We need to come up with not the conservation therefore must consider answer for a particular site; we need have to address disappearing coastal the species’ entire distribution and set to come up with answers that will vegetation, coastal land development aside conservation areas or ensure that work fairly generally, fairly broadly, and changes in coral reefs and global spatial replication is possible. so that knowledge can be shared and currents that will affect historic It is the element of nesting beaches and how sea replication—doing similar but implemented as quickly as possible,” feed. Another way to assist species multiple projects—that managers said Hansen. “[We need] networks of adaptation to climate change is to must consider at the system-level similar projects where we can combine replicate conservation efforts or to plan to implement a truly adaptive the studies at the end to do meta- for redundancy as a way of “hedging management approach. Doing many analysis approaches of what works and our bet” against the unpredictable similar projects around the world will what does not; what is good guidance nature of climate change. be necessary to compare and further and what is not,” said Hansen.

26 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 7. Policy Response Challenges

mplementation of many forced to be reactive.” This section ESA’s limitation in addressing climate federal conservation statutes reviews several of the existing impacts: “How does the law deal with I(Endangered Species Act, National conservation laws protecting U.S. assessing the threat when the causes Environmental Policy Act, Marine wildlife and the policy changes needed of the problem are, by definition, Mammal Protection Act) has often at the federal and state levels to global in nature?” said Glitzenstein. proven inadequate to fully address cooperatively address climate change. He further described the ESA as the nation’s current conservation “too slender a reed on which to hang challenges and is unlikely to fully Existing Policy Tools this entire [global climate change] address the more complex, far- problem, [but] it will be one of the reaching and long-term problem of Endangered Species Act reeds that people try to hang it on.” global climate changes. The climate The Endangered Species Act (ESA) The 2007 petition to list the polar challenge thus offers an opportunity has not always been successful in bear as threatened under the ESA was for conservationists and policymakers promoting landscape-wide decision the first and most obvious example to be proactive. As Eric Glitzenstein making. It is difficult to make changes of how conservationists are trying to of the public-interest law firm Meyer when the causality between an action use existing laws to secure the need Glitzenstein & Crystal observed: “If and its impact on species is not clear. for conservation response and legal we fail to be proactive, we may be This difficulty is at the core of the protection. But, if Glitzenstein is s n tio c t E ye Produ f e L ski/ w azlo n K © S teve

Walrus herds rest on a chunk of pack ice. A shortage of pack ice in 2007 forced these marine mammals to crowd on shore in such numbers that thousands were killed in stampedes.

www.defenders.org 27 “Let’s try to not only address global climate change but be preemptive in understanding how humans are going to react to that and try to factor wildlife protection into those responses, which may, in the long run, turn out to be as important from a wildlife standpoint, as actually doing something about global climate change itself.” —Eric Glitzenstein, Meyer Glitzenstein & Crystal

correct, many more species will be and other conservation groups administration and management listed and moving along the “critical provides a fundamental component structure. habitat pipeline,” if policymakers fail to future legislation in response to Hayes, however, pointed out to take more proactive steps to address global warming (see page 29). This that there is a precedent for federal the shortcomings of current legislation. act calls for the development and agencies and federal, state and private implementation of appropriate plans landowners to work together: the National Environmental by federal and state agencies, the National Interagency Fire Center Policy Act formulation of a national strategy (NIFC). The NIFC brings the Forest The National Environmental Policy to protect wildlife and oceans, the Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Act (NEPA) can be “a tremendous establishment of a national science Service, National Park Service, Bureau help, potentially, in putting the advisory board and a global warming of Indian Affairs and state agencies spotlight on what is happening to the and wildlife science center at the U.S. together to consider the kind of environment in connection with major Geological Survey, and the creation of information needed to deal with the federal actions,” said David Hayes. a framework for funding. complicated issue of fire management “[But] it is a disclosure statute at its and response. Dan Ashe also cited root and it has limited enforcement in Need for Cooperation the NIFC as an impressive program terms of mandating requirements.” and Coordination all the way down the line, from training to science to execution and Marine Mammal Protection Act At the federal level beyond. In considering the climate During the discussion at the end of As noted previously, wildlife change challenge, Ashe supported the the symposium, the policy speakers management in the face of climate idea of adopting the NIFC model: were asked to consider the use of change will require a landscape-level “We need a central capacity to think the Marine Mammal Protection management approach. However, about the science and to drive that Act (MMPA) to combat impacts of according to David Hayes, the to the management community.” He ocean warming on marine mammals problem is management authorities also noted that the successful cross- that depend on the ocean for their are not very good at landscape-level collaboration in this program was born survival. Deborah Williams said that management. At the federal level, it will be critical to use existing laws for example, there are many agencies as fully as we can in the face of global (Bureau of Land Management, “We need a big, big warming. David Hayes agreed. “It is National Park Service, Forest Service, absolutely worth thinking creatively U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, bunch of money going about it,” he said, noting that MMPA Bureau of Indian Affairs) responsible toward wildlife adaptive has some of the same inherent for managing land. “All of these problems as NEPA and may “not have have land managers,” Hayes noted, management. And it is quite the hook that we need.” “and they do not all get along.” In addition, there are disconnects probably going to have to be Global Warming Wildlife between the scientific or technical a big straw coming out of Survival Act units and the management authority, Hayes concluded “the best ground to as in the case of the U.S. Geological the cap-and-trade system.” plow is the new legislation.” He noted Survey, which is independent of —David Hayes, that the Global Warming Wildlife the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Survival Act promoted by Defenders within the Department of the Interior Latham & Watkins

28 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife The Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act

785-000HurtsAd_Sheep_CDailyAM_4c_FPGv3r4.QXD 7/12/07 07:41 PM Page 1

n addition to national legislation that takes immediate steps to I significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we will also need legislative action to protect our wildlife. Even with immediate and significant emission reductions, wildlife will continue to suffer from the impacts of global warming through the century, and possibly beyond, until greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere dissipate. We also need a comprehensive strategy to address the impacts of global warming on wildlife. The Global Warming Wildlife Survival Global Warming Hurts Their Families Too Act creates the framework necessary Think we’re the only ones affected by global warming? Think again. to carry out such a strategy. The act, which has been passed by the House Global warming is already having an enormous impact on bighorn sheep, waterfowl, polar bears, and other treasured wildlife in our country. But there is hope. The Global Warming as part of broader energy and global Wildlife Survival Act, part of the House Energy Independence Initiative, provides a comprehensive national approach to help wildlife adapt to the worst impacts of global warming, warming legislation, and has been and supports the national parks, forests, wildlife refuges and other special places that wildlife introduced in the Senate, will: calls home. It’s a critical first step in making sure America’s precious wildlife is protected for future generations. Congress must act today so that America’s wildlife will still be here tomorrow. • Ensure that federal and state Support the Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act. agencies develop and implement Pass the House Energy Independence Initiative. plans to reduce the impact of global warming on wildlife and its habitat.

TO LEARN MORE VISIT WWW.DEFENDERS.ORG/WILDLIFESURVIVALACT • Coordinate a national strategic response, based on the best available science, to enable Defenders and other groups joined forces to garner support for the Global wildlife to adapt to the current and future impacts of global warming Warming Wildlife Survival Act by running ads like this one in publications as we work to reduce emissions. read by members of Congress and their staff.

• Establish a national science center within the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate the impacts of global warming on wildlife and to propose management responses to assist wildlife adaptation to these impacts.

• Create a funding mechanism for allocating significant levels of new federal funds to conduct the necessary research and management interventions to help wildlife survive the impacts of global warming. One proposed source of funding for this legislation is a portion of the proceeds generated through the sale of greenhouse gas pollution permits under a federal cap-and-trade system created under future climate change legislation.

To read the bills as introduced, visit http://thomas.loc.gov and search for H.R. 2338 or S. 2204. To learn more about the act, visit www.defenders.org/wildlifesurvivalact.

www.defenders.org 29 of a crisis in which the imperative to is,” Hayes said. “It is a policy morass key for day-to-day land-use decision act was overwhelming. because there are folks who want to making. Hayes identified three key take advantage of sequestration in an Thus, greater efforts should be elements that make the NIFC model inappropriate way. But somewhere made to strengthen federal-state work, all of which could apply in that pile, there is a diamond that relationships. Working examples to climate change and landscape has the potential to bring dollars to include the memorandum of management. maintaining intact because understanding (MOU) developed in First, and most important, is of the carbon benefit associated with the previous administration between leadership from the top. forest, range, wetlands and other California and the Department The second element is clear undisturbed lands that can [store of the Interior and the California direction specified in the statutory carbon]. Keep your eye on that Biodiversity Council, created to bring language, providing federal land ball. I think it could become a very together land-managing agencies. mangers with clear priorities. “When important funding mechanism.” Formalized agreements among it comes to resource agencies, this agencies such as these provide a kind of direction is extremely At the state level framework short of statutory changes meaningful and with appropriate Clearly, the federal government alone and go a long way toward creating leadership can be pushed through,” cannot solve the problems associated the kind of collaborative interactions said Hayes. with climate change nor can they be necessary to achieve landscape-level The third element is funding. resolved within the confines of federal management. Addressing the magnitude and scale of lands. State and private landowners However, most states, like the the climate change impacts on wildlife will also have to be involved. Future federal agencies, are underfunded and lands will require additional climate change opportunities have with overworked personnel and financial support for scientific the potential to get federal, state and therefore may have little inclination research, resource management private landowners working together to take on climate change planning. training and land acquisition. because the challenge is imperative Such planning activities while going Mobilizing the federal Land and and so overwhelming. beyond the immediate, day-to- Fund could be a States will be crucial in addressing day activities that need attention logical first step, but a steady flow of the climate change challenge because must nevertheless become a higher future funding will also be essential. the management and regulation of priority among resource agencies. Hayes pointed to two additional most wildlife and habitat outside States are already able to pass bond funding opportunities. One, of federal lands resides within measures to provide needed capital for carbon cap-and-trade, is already state purview. States offer major restoration, land acquisition, creation making its way into proposed legal opportunities for integrated planning. of corridors and control of invasive and market mechanisms. Another For example, the State Wildlife Action species. Mantell pointed to attempts option, perhaps more problematic Plans produced under federal law in California to redirect those bond but worth continuing study, is forest should be integrated with regional dollars to areas most in need of carbon offsets. The ability to channel water and energy infrastructure support for designating and setting- funding through a proposed cap- development and management plans. aside corridors to help wildlife species and-trade system of carbon dioxide State land trusts should stay up to adapt to climate change. Part of that emissions regulations on energy holds date on climate change impacts effort relies on public education. real promise. The second, carbon and make them a consideration in “People need to better understand not sequestration through forest carbon efforts to assist wildlife adaptation. just the problems, but the potential offsets, “is very complicated to Michael Mantell pointed out that solutions and their role in solutions, figure out [and it is] extraordinarily states can also serve as “laboratories and how it affects all living things,” difficult to measure what the benefit for innovations” and are particularly said Mantell. “We have great opportunities, but also great responsibilities to bring [our citizenry] more into the process of helping us work on solutions.” —Michael Mantell, Resources Law Group LLP

30 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 8. Vital Framework

amie Rappaport Clark, executive vice president of Defenders of iated Press c

Wildlife, led a closing discussion sso

J © A among panel moderators Barry Noon, Ron Pulliam and Eric Glitzenstein. They focused on the two vital questions covered in this section: How do we shift the U.S. climate change debate to a less politically charged dialogue? What first steps should the next administration take to address global warming and wildlife challenges? The answers constitute fundamental actions that we must take immediately to build the national framework necessary to meet our responsibility and take leadership in making global Al Gore (center) and Rajendra Pachauri (right), accepting on behalf of the IPCC, warming a top-priority issue. receive the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their work on global warming.

Taking Politics Out of Noon concurred that the climate been embraced by just one party. There the ISSUE change challenge is primarily and have been extremely strong supporters Pulliam offered two approaches foremost a science issue. However, he of the environment—and successes to taking politics out of the policy noted, success will rely on addressing with big issues, even global issues—on dialogue. The first is to take the the drivers of global warming, which approach exemplified by the quickly moves the dialogue into social symposium and turn the issue into and economic dimensions central to “We hope we can return a science-based problem to study Pulliam’s second approach to getting and analyze to derive objective away from the politics: focus on to a period of civility and recommendations. Moving forward on linking the fate of wildlife to the fate this approach would set up a process of human beings. Pulliam noted that rationality in terms of dictated by objective outcomes. the message that humans and wildlife this issue—which affects For example, under the proposed alike are going to suffer the same fate Global Warming Wildlife Survival in the long run has gotten increased everyone of us, affects all of Act, a scientific advisory board could currency in the last couple of years. provide policy-neutral analysis and That message will continue to take our children—and does not recommendations. “If you get people hold, and have even more impact in discriminate on the basis on board with the notion that we the future. should have science-based decision Eric Glitzenstein pointed out of left and right. It is one of making, it is hard to be partisan about that addressing global warming may that,” said Pulliam. It is one strategy seem to be a partisan issue, but this common sense.” that has already been shown to work is just an illusion based on current —Eric Glitzenstein, Meyer Glitzenstein & Crystal with some degree of success in other history. Politics shift. He noted that settings. environmental issues have not always

www.defenders.org 31 both sides of the aisle. “Remember,” in this discussion: a need for greater an “enormous range of things in the said Glizenstein, “there is a need to involvement of the states at the executive branch that [the president] work across the aisle.” policy, resource and land management can do, short of a legislative fix.” levels; and a need for a more effective These things include directing Taking Leadership: and supportive role by the federal agencies to consider, pursuant to First Steps for the Next executive branch. “We were talking NEPA processes, the potential of Administration about this as if it is a federal issue,” their actions to exacerbate or improve Pulliam said, “but when we get away The general consensus of the panelists the conditions created by the global from a few species, those endangered was that adequate funding is essential. climate change crisis. These could To address the scope of the work and threatened species, down to be done by executive directive with ahead, the next administration will migratory species, most species are no additional legislation. If the next need funding for land acquisition not federal responsibility; they are U.S. president is willing to use the programs to protect habitat and state responsibilities [and this] will bully pulpit to actually declare the for educating land managers and require coordinated efforts across state bringing all parties together in an boundaries.” emergency that global climate change ongoing, iterative and mutually Glitzenstein raised the need truly is, that declaration alone would reinforcing process of consultation, for further legislation to help the go a long way toward changing analysis and planning. states deal with climate change and attitudes and ultimately making the Two big parts of the solution, coordinate responses across state necessary changes to mitigate and which have been missing, were noted boundaries. He noted that there is adapt to climate change.

Figure 5: Rising impacts of global warming p rou n t G e nm viro W En E f P ourtesy o eter art c m o m T her

32 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife 9. Recommendations and Conclusion elly nn o © T erry D

Oregon Islands National Wildlife Refuge, a rocky coastal haven for seabirds, seals, sea lions and other wildlife, is one of many areas where warming-related changes in ocean currents are rattling the marine food chain.

itigation and adaptation the system’s resilience or ability to greenhouse gas emissions must be capped are inextricably linked, but adapt. It is hard to imagine how the at or near where they are at present. Mthe most fundamental need loss of pack ice or the acidification of We must act now. There is still in responding to climate impacts our oceans can be reversed without an hope. By taking immediate and due to global warming is to reduce aggressive response. aggressive action so that warming can the primary cause, greenhouse gas A national dialogue is necessary. be stabilized at only 2°C or 3°C, we emissions. Efforts to pursue safe Society and our government must face can avoid the worst of the predicted and reasonable measures to reduce extinction wave. the biggest environmental question: greenhouse gas emissions must be Beyond the immediate need to At what level do we stop emitting supported because the reality is that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, additional greenhouse gases into the there is only so much we can do on 10 specific recommendations for atmosphere and stop interfering with the management side to help wildlife helping wildlife adapt to the impacts to survive through adaptation. Given the climate system? All other aspects of global warming emerged from the the lag time in the climate system, of climate change, species and habitat symposium. These recommendations it is imperative that we act now to survival and energy supply should fall into three broad categories: (1) reduce greenhouse gas emissions. derive from answers to that question. buying time while we “act and study;” Some species and some ecosystems, The gathered panel of scientists and (2) moving forward with plans to such as those found in Arctic or high experts convened for this symposium manage wildlife and land resources alpine regions, may already be beyond agreed that the answer is that under increased global warming; and

www.defenders.org 33 (3) providing a legislative framework 2. Ameliorate the impacts that that scientists and managers work in and new conservation paradigm to human adaptation to climate closer collaboration. Scientists have forge solutions. change actions will have on wildlife a particular challenge in this respect: and habitat. To be more aggressive about working Buying Time Society, governments and institutions with managers and framing research that provide for basic human services questions that are truly relevant to 1. Apply proven approaches to such as water, , energy and the needs of management and policy. maintain resilience in managing agriculture are already being affected Analytical tools, models and results under uncertainty. by global warming and will face must all be promulgated in a way that management can easily use and adapt, Our current understanding of climate an increasing need to adapt to the given changing conditions and the science and species’ response to climate impacts. However, not all human- need for experimentation. change is insufficient to model and centric adaptations are compatible make precise predictions. We do, with natural ecosystem conservation. however, know enough to guide For example, farmers are planting Moving Forward some prudent actions. The suite of alternative crops to supply biofuels 4. Develop predictive modeling as conservation practices and approaches rather than food, but these alternative an integral management tool. currently employed continues to serve crops require more water. Deserts are some of the needs, thereby buying time being gouged to support the solar General climate models developed for us to make the investment necessary panels that now blanket large sectors over decades have been invaluable to narrow the uncertainty. Building of the arid landscape. Water is being in educating the general public and the resilience of natural systems, for diverted in anticipation of changing governments around the world about example, is one strong tool in the snowpack and spring runoff rates. the impacts of global warming. current conservation toolkit. Bulkheads are being constructed along However, such models are inadequate Numerous proven conservation coastlines to address sea level rise in to guide on-the-ground management efforts contribute to ecosystem terms of human property loss, but decisions relevant to most wildlife resilience. Acquiring and safeguarding they also prevent natural coastlines and resource managers at the scales protected areas creates safe havens from from rebuilding. Public health at which they typically work. which future biogeographic patterns officials are proposing pesticide- Development of finer-scale models will emerge. Adding corridors restores spraying programs to respond to an is only beginning, but hopefully will natural connections to the landscape. expanding range of disease-carrying expand over the coming years. Stopping tropical deforestation and insects moving north into new areas. Models focused at the smaller, promoting reforestation contributes The environmental cost of these regional level will be instrumental in to climate mitigation and protects secondary and tertiary climate indicating where species might find important areas of biological diversity change impacts may be significant conditions they need to survive in the and vital ecological services. Reducing and far worse for the environment future. Yet current levels of modeling other non-climate stresses such as than the primary climate impacts on cannot predict where, when or how unsustainable harvests, invasive species species and natural habitat. Human species might move to these new introduction, pollution and habitat responses to climate change will be areas, assuming travel corridors exist loss and degradation is also important. aggressive and additive and will have and there are no major landscape These other stressors can interact significant and proximate effects on obstacles. Nor can existing models synergistically with climate change fish and wildlife, if more appropriate predict what will happen when stresses, making it more difficult for responses to the climate threat are not they get there: Will more aggressive organisms, communities and ecosystems implemented. competitors or predators occupy the to respond to the climate impacts. habitat? Will exposure to novel disease Proven conservation efforts are essential, 3. Identify the questions needed pathogens cripple the species’ ability but we need to do more. Future to frame our response to the threat to successfully colonize the new area? management decisions must be based on posed by global climate change. If such climate-environment a much longer temporal scale and, most Wildlife and resource managers modeling efforts are undertaken, importantly, on preventing ecosystems will need a new suite of monitoring only a limited number of species, from exceeding critical threshold levels. and analytical tools to guide future populations and areas will benefit conservation efforts. This will require from such focused analysis. Some

34 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife species will be difficult to model species that vision must extend and examining the problem of as our understanding of their life beyond our national borders. migrating climate impacts in mind. history, habitat and physiological Climate change due to global Adaptive management approaches requirements are too limited. Most warming is our common enemy. With must be encouraged by state, federal likely, only a highly select subset a shared common vision and joint goals and other land managers. Further delay of species, including the most wildlife and resource managers will in working out all the uncertainty in charismatic, will benefit from such be better able to work across national, various strategies means that climate analysis. Depending on the degree political and generational lines. will have changed yet again and the of global warming, it still remains guidance developed may be of little unknown whether or not wildlife 6. Invest in many small-scale and use. A system of comprehensive managers will have any options reversible pilot projects. monitoring will also be essential. We available in real time to assist The climate change challenge is must take bold steps now. every species in their adaptation to too grand and the rate of loss too changing climate conditions. swift for us to wait to perfect our 8. Adopt landscape-level and knowledge before acting. It is clear seascape-level planning. 5. Develop and articulate a that a successful strategy for dealing Current protected or conservation common vision. with climate change will ultimately areas are too small, too fragmented Climate change is a moral and ethical be gained in the face of multiple and too surrounded by human-altered issue and may ultimately prove uncertainties. Wildlife and land lands for maintaining the integrity, to be society’s greatest challenge. resource managers, nongovernmental diversity and health of the nation’s fish It not only affects poorer nations partners and the research community and wildlife populations. Protected disproportionately, but also threatens should shift the incentive patterns and conservation areas must therefore all life on Earth. The decision on how to encourage many small-scale be reintegrated into the broader to respond does not rest solely with and reversible pilot projects and landscape. This will require new scientists, resource managers or even experimental actions. tools, new ideas and, most especially, policy makers, but with society as a An incentive program that new relationships. The wildlife and whole. Implementation of society’s invests in innovations and proactive conservation community will need to response, however, may fall mostly to creation of future wildlife habitats build new relationships, think across the scientists, managers, policy makers is needed. Successful examples exist, disciplines and boundaries and apply and other technical specialists. such as micro-credit programs used different temporal and spatial scales. A common vision of what the to promote overseas development Federal, state and private landowners management mandate should be assistance. These foreign assistance must begin working together at a under changing climate conditions dollars help to fund innovators broader landscape level that addresses will help galvanize and focus looking for entrepreneurial means to not just the ecological challenge, but resources and identify areas in need reduce energy use, restore habitat or also social, economic and cultural of innovative solving problems. encourage climate change adaptation limitations. Within protected areas on public experimentation and associated pilot The concept of landscape-level lands this vision must encompass projects. management is not new. Ecosystem- the reality of shifting biomes and based management has been practiced changes in phenology and other life 7. Institute an adaptive within certain management units. history timing events and changes in management approach and learn However, in the context of addressing species range and distribution and through action. climate change, it requires planning community structure. Wildlife and The concept of experimental well beyond the management unit, resource managers must know what management must guide our response a far longer time horizon and the they will be asked to protect, what to current climate impacts and future incorporation of all components the conservation targets are, and what climate changes. Adaptive management and stressors wherever they occur. the maintenance of the integrity, is an experimental and proactive Global warming will have increasingly diversity and health of a population management process. More studies of greater influence as habitat shifts, means under stable climatic changes. species and habitat must be supported. temperature or moisture levels exceed What is the vision for the American Experiments must be crafted with species’ tolerances and protected conservation landscape? For some providing habitat for refugee species areas come under increased pressures.

www.defenders.org 35 Species will try to move into already need to be revised with observational everything we have ever known established communities or move data provided by on-the-ground about conservation. Mitigation and out of protected areas and into managers as well as researchers. A adaptation have been emphasized inhospitable landscapes. Threats to well-defined system of monitoring as appropriate societal responses protected lands and conservation areas will be essential in developing this to global warming, and both are will likely exceed anything we have paradigm. Ultimately, as the new important and neither is enough ever seen. To protect species, paradigm takes form, alone. It is also clear that global and the ecosystem services that they it will be essential to deal with the warming is compelling us to rethink inherent uncertainty in the climate provide, we will have to change the basic concepts of ecology and the status quo of our management and biotic systems. It will be necessary land management. And we need to approaches. to cultivate a new cohort of wildlife let the public know honestly and and conservation professionals who quickly that nature needs our help. FRAmework for solutions can serve as the intellectual workforce to face all of the daunting climate Responding effectively will require 9. Develop a national strategy change challenges well into this our country to recommit ourselves to and enact legislation to address century and beyond. our nation’s wildlife and wild places the impacts of global warming on by providing significantly greater wildlife. Conclusion resources and by making global Existing legislation, such as the Defenders’ Executive Vice President warming a priority at all levels. But Endangered Species Act, National Jamie Rappaport Clark closed the the most important steps that we take Environmental Policy Act, Marine symposium with a call to action. “All are the ones that we take now. We Mammal Protection Act and the of us can agree that climate changes cannot ignore this issue.” Clean Air Act, is being used to tackle atz some of the threats associated with

global warming. It is clear, however, © Marty K that the architecture of these acts does not fully address most climate change threats. New legislation is needed to address impacts of global warming on wildlife. The Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act is the type of legislation that is needed. A central provision of this legislation is the required development of a national strategy to respond the climate change impacts on wildlife survival.

10. Develop a new conservation paradigm. One of the most difficult tasks facing conservation biologists addressing the impacts of global warming is to develop a new conservation paradigm. We must question and critically examine the scientific and technical underpinnings of many of our academic disciplines. Revising principles under very different “This is surely a time for great vision, for innovation and spatial and temporal scales of climate for creativity.” change can be equally intimidating. Science-driven management will —Jamie Rappaport Clark, Executive Vice President, Defenders of Wildlife

36 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife Appendix A Innovations in Wildlife Conservation: Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife Symposium Agenda

7:30-8:00 a.m. Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:00-8:15 a.m. Welcome and Opening Remarks Dr. Rodger Schlickeisen, Defenders of Wildlife

8:15-9:00 a.m. Keynote Address Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy III, The Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment

9:00-10:30 a.m. Panel 1. Science and Impacts: Global Warming and Wildlife Moderator: Dr. Barry Noon, Colorado State University Dr. Glenn Juday, University of Alaska Dr. Charles H. “Pete” Peterson, University of North Carolina Dr. Terry Root, Stanford University

10:30-11:00 a.m. Coffee Break

11:00-12:30 p.m. Panel 2. Adaptation Strategies: Wildlife Management and Climate Change Moderator: Dr. H. Ron Pulliam, University of Georgia Dr. Bryan Norton, Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. J. Michael Scott, University of Idaho and U.S. Geological Survey Dr. Lara Hansen, World Wildlife Fund U.S.

12:30-2:00 p.m. Lunch and Featured Speaker The Honorable Norman D. Dicks, U.S. House of Representatives (D-Wash.)

2:00-3:30 p.m. Panel 3. Policy Response: Government, Citizens and Global Warming Moderator: Mr. Eric R. Glitzenstein, Meyer Glitzenstein & Crystal mr. Daniel Ashe, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service mr. David J. Hayes, Latham & Watkins mr. Michael Mantell, Resources Law Group LLP ms. Deborah L. Williams, Alaska Conservation Solutions

3:30-4:30 p.m. Final Discussion and Closing Remarks Moderator: Ms. Jamie Rappaport Clark, Defenders of Wildlife Dr. Barry Noon Dr. H. Ron Pulliam mr. Eric R. Glitzenstein

www.defenders.org 37 Appendix B Innovations in Wildlife Conservation: Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife Symposium Panelist Biographies

Daniel Ashe is the science advisor to the David J. Hayes is the global chair of director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife the environment, land and resources Service, appointed to this position in department at Latham & Watkins, March 2003. He previously served as where his practice focuses on counseling, the chief of the National Wildlife Refuge litigation and transactions involving System, the service’s land acquisition energy, environmental, and natural program, and has directed the service’s migratory bird resources. He served as the Deputy Secretary of management and North American wetlands conservation the Interior during the second term of the Clinton programs. administration, and played a lead role in many of the department’s most difficult and important matters.

The Honorable Norman D. Dicks Dr. Glenn P. Juday represents Washington state’s 6th District is a professor of in the U.S. House of Representatives. A forest ecology in the school of natural native of Bremerton, Wash., Rep. resources and agricultural sciences at Dicks received his undergraduate and the University of Alaska. He specializes juris doctor degrees from the University in forest biodiversity, climate change of Washington. He served on the staff of Senator Warren assessment, climate change and forest G. Magnuson prior to being elected to the House. Now growth, and old-growth forest ecology. serving his 16th term, Rep. Dicks is chairman of the Interior Appropriations Subcommittee and a sponsor of Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy is the president the Global Warming Wildlife Survival Act. of The einzH Center. Before coming to the center in 2002, he served as the Eric Glitzenstein is a partner with the World Bank’s chief biodiversity advisor Washington, D.C.- based public interest law and lead specialist for environment for firm of Meyer Glitzenstein & Crystal. The Latin America and the Caribbean, and firm specializes in federal and state court senior advisor to the president of the United Nations litigation on wildlife, animal protection, Foundation. Dr. Lovejoy has also been assistant secretary environmental and energy issues. and counselor to the secretary at the Smithsonian Institution, science advisor to the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, and executive vice president of World Wildlife Dr. Lara Hansen is the chief climate Fund–U.S. change scientist for World Wildlife Fund, and leads their impacts and adaptations program. Her main focus is the redesign of conservation strategies to incorporate responses to climate change.

38 Reducing the Impact of Global Warming on Wildlife Michael Mantell is an attorney Dr. H. Ronald Pulliam is a professor with Resources Law Group LLP, a of environment and ecology at the multidisciplinary firm he founded University of Georgia. He was the in 2000 to design and administer director of the National Biological conservation initiatives for philanthropic Service under U.S. Secretary of the foundations and other private and public Interior Bruce Babbitt and later science sector interests. He previously served as undersecretary advisor to the secretary. He is also the former president for resources for the state of California, as general of the Ecological Society of America and serves on counsel for World Wildlife Fund and as director of the the board of the National Council for Science and land, heritage and wildlife program of The Conservation Technology. Foundation. Dr. Terry Root is a research fellow at Stanford University. She specializes in Dr. Barry Noon is a professor of wildlife population and distribution wildlife ecology in the department of response to changing climate. and wildlife biology at Colorado State University. He specializes in the application of ecological concepts and Dr. J. Michael Scott is a professor at the theory to environmental problems. University of Idaho’s department of fish and wildlife as well as a senior scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey. His Dr. Bryan Norton is a professor in the research areas of interest include the school of public policy at Georgia Tech. limiting factors of endangered species, He works on intergenerational impacts estimating animal numbers and . of policy choices, endangered species policy, sustainability theory and cultural aspects of environmental protection. Deborah L. Williams is founder and president of Alaska Conservation Solutions, an organization devoted to Dr. Charles (Pete) Peterson is an addressing the effects of global warming alumni distinguished professor in on Alaska and its wildlife. Williams has the institute of marine science at also served as the executive director of the University of North Carolina. the Alaska Conservation Foundation, special assistant to He specializes in natural resource the U.S. Secretary of the Interior for Alaska during the management, , Clinton administration, and as a representative of the environmental regulation and ecosystems ecology. National Park Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Alaska.

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