Estimation of Day-long Population Dynamics of Workers Using Nation-wide Statistical Data and its Application to the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area, Japan Keisuke Himoto 1, Junpei Kimata 2, Tomoaki Nishino 3 and Takeyoshi Tanaka 4 1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University , Kyoto , Japan 2 Construction Division, Aichi Prefectural Government, Nagoya, Japan 3 Department of Architecture, Kobe University, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan 4 Research Center for Disaster Mitigation of Cultural Heritage, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan email corresponding author:
[email protected] Abstract Extent of fatality due to natural disaster depends largely on spatial distribu- tion of population at the moment the disaster occurs. In this study, a com- putational model for estimating day-long spatio-temporal distribution of workers was developed by using a number of nation-wide statistical data such as "Population Census", "Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activi- ties", and “Economic Census”. The model estimates behavior of individual workers by considering their attributes including gender, occupation, place of work and residence, and whether he/she works at home or not. As a case study, the proposed model was applied to the Keihanshin (Kyoto-Osaka- Kobe) Metropolitan Area, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Japan. Estimated instantaneous number of workers unable to return home be- comes the maximum of about 1.4 million between 10:00 and 16:00, around which the utmost disorder in association with traffic disruption is expected if an earthquake strikes. 2 CUPUM conference papers 1. Introduction Appearance of disaster considerably changes due to the time of its occur- rence.